Subscribe
Share
Share
Embed
Our weekly show is hosted by Michael Nadeau (The DeFi Report) and Ryan Sean Adams (Bankless). Each week, we discuss how we approach managing our own portfolio and the data, research, and analytical frameworks that inform those decisions — for educational and informational purposes.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[0:10] It is Wednesday, May 13th. Welcome to the report. The title today, Momentum is Waning. So we are 217 days from Bitcoin highs, but who's counting? The winds seem to have changed though, Mike. We locked in a weekly close, and this is a big deal, above Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis. I know that's something that you watch on a week-to-week basis. And if we lock in a few more, that could mean the end of the bear market. That's what's happened previously. Also, we have Fear and Greed, Back to Neutral Territory, Altcoins have been showing some life. What does all this mean? Your title is still, Momentum is Waning, so we can kind of guess your conclusion here. We're going to dig into the short-term holder cost numbers on Bitcoin, compare that to previous cycles. Also, talk about possible catalysts for regime shift and a next leg up or down. And how has the month of June historically gone for Bitcoin price? You talk about that in today's report. Stick around to the end as usual, guys. There's three price levels that Mike is watching and some more details on the portfolio. There were some buys, there were some sells this week for TDR Pro members. I want to talk a little bit about how you're thinking about this market. Okay, so the bullish setup here that we have, that people are seeing, fear and greed neutral, short-term holder cost basis. We're above that right now on Bitcoin price.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[1:39] Yet, your title is still Momentum is waning. So which is it?
Ryan Sean Adams:
[1:43] Are we in a bullish setup or is momentum waning?
Michael Nadeau:
[1:46] That's a million dollar question right there. I think this rally has lasted longer than we were anticipating. We talked about this last week. Bear market rallies typically last two months or so, and we're now three plus months into this latest move, which progressed into a weekly close last week above short-term holder cost basis. We talked last week about the 200-day moving average as potential resistance. We haven't quite gotten up to the 200-day moving average, but we did have that close, that first weekly close above the short-term holder cost basis. So That's important, right? That's interesting. We should understand when were there other periods where this has played out in past bear markets? What was the market structure at those times? How far into the bear market was it? So we can kind of go through some of that today and kind of come back to cycle awareness. Where are we at? And also, are people starting to sell, right? As we push into those low 80s, are we seeing sellers come back into the market? And that's some of what we're going to get into today.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[2:50] Yeah, I think you've got some compelling evidence here today. That momentum is waning. Before we get into it, though, got to thank our friends and sponsors over at Galaxy. This one's for the institutional capital listening, whether you're looking at the future of finance, of course, that is crypto or the backbone of the next industrial revolution. That is AI Galaxy. That's the name you need to know. They've established themselves as a global leader, not just in digital assets and crypto, but also in data center infrastructure, the type of infrastructure that's powering AI. What's unique about Galaxy is they do both, not just crypto, not just AI, but both. They have an HPC-ready data center, including their Helios site. This is 1.6 gigawatts of approved power. They're a publicly traded company. GLXY is the ticker. And so if you're an institution, you're looking for things on the AI side, you're looking for crypto trading, custody, and tokenization, Go check them out. There's a link in the show notes.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[3:47] All right, Mike, let's get to what we saw on the week, which is Bitcoin closed last week above its short-term holder cost basis. That was 78.9K. First of all, that's pretty significant, right? At least we've seen that before in the previous cycles in 2018 and 2022, and we can compare it. But can you refresh us actually on what the short-term holder cost basis is? So when we say short-term holder, what are we talking about? Are we talking about the cohort of new money, kind of, I guess, top buyers for lack of a better term?
Michael Nadeau:
[4:27] So a little different from some of the other market structure data that we look at. So short-term holder cost basis, this is measuring what we think is a proxy for the cost basis of all coins that have been purchased within the last 155 days.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[4:43] Oh, I see. So it's not the cohorts that we were doing in the previous two TDR reports.
Michael Nadeau:
[4:49] This is constantly being updated as people are buying at different levels. And so when we started the bear market, the short-term holder cost basis was closer to like 90K or so. So that's come down as prices have come down. And it tends to serve as, you know, upward resistance in bear markets, because this is kind of like the more, you know, trader type of crowd, people that are in and out of the markets. And when you have a, you know, 30 plus percent rally, as we've recently had, you can start to see, you know, sellers starting to come back into the market as this happens. And so this is kind of where we're at right now in terms of this move that we've had. We're now pushing up against some of these resistance levels and trying to understand, is this going to break down from here? Is there momentum? What do we see behind this move? Or are we seeing actually sellers starting to step in where it potentially starts to go in the other direction?
Ryan Sean Adams:
[5:47] Okay. So we're just a hair above that number. So the short-term holder cost basis is 78.9K.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[5:55] At the time of recording, Bitcoin price is 79K and some change. Can we compare this to previous cycles? So you've charted this out. We closed last week above short-term holder cost basis of that 78.9K. This has also happened in previous cycles. Take us back to 2018, the times we closed above short-term holder cost basis. What did that look like?
Michael Nadeau:
[6:20] Yeah. And this is the second time it's happened. We also had a weekly close above it back in January. So this is the second time. Looking back at the 2018 cycle, it looks very similar. So we've.
Michael Nadeau:
[6:34] 20s, 26 looks kind of like 2022. But for this KPI, it actually looks much more like 2018. And we can see we rallied. We had a big sell-off back in 2018 early in the bear market and then a sharp V-shaped rebound. And less than three months into the bear market, we did move above and we had weekly closes above that short-term holder cost basis. And then we broke down. So that served as resistance at that time. We broke down further. And then we kind of bounced around for a little while and then made another move later in the cycle. So at a very similar point in the bear market that we're at today, this was about 220 days into the bear market. We then had another weekly close above the short-term holder cost basis. I think at that time, very similar to the setup today, you've had some digestion in the market, we've had some chop, we've come down. And I think at that time, you could have sort of been looking at it and saying, wait a minute, You know, maybe we're going into a new regime here. We're going to actually flip this into support. That did not happen. We ended up breaking down. And then it took another 248 days of sort of wealth destruction, coins rotating, you know, more chop to actually get to that spot where we actually durably broke out from that resistance at the short-term holder cost basis. So that's one example, right? We don't have a ton of history on Bitcoin generally, but we have a couple of different cycles that we can look at.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[8:03] So in 2018, it was third times the charm, and it was the third time we broke above the short-term holder cost basis that we actually broke back into a bull market. But that happened 468 days after the cycle peak, and of course, we're 217 days in. But the other two times this happened in 2018, it was 79 days in, and then again, 220 days in. the symmetry here is just pretty astounding because that's almost exactly what's happening this cycle right to a day I mean rather than At 220 days, we're 217. You may as well call that exactly the same.
Michael Nadeau:
[8:39] Very similar place in the bear market. And yeah, when you think about what's going on here and why is that serving as resistance, I think in both cases, and typically what happens is you have a rally back to that spot. So you come down and then you have a move up to that. Mostly short-term holders are buying into that move up. Once you get to that level, a lot of these are traders that are just taking profits and then waiting for the next move down. So the market structure shifts once you've had the move. And then the question is, are there long-term holders, right? The kind of smart money, the longer-term players that want to get into big positions when they think we're in fair value territory. Like when that when we meet that point like is there enough if the short-term holders are exiting are there enough long-term holders smart money that wants to come in i think that's the big question you know are they are they going to deploy at 80k or are they going to wait for are they going to try to wait for like 60k or something something more and it's it's the.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[9:40] Story is all about how the coins change hands and to whom isn't it uh how about let's compare it to 2022 how does it look in comparison to that what what happened with the short-term holder cost basis in 2022
Michael Nadeau:
[9:52] Yeah. So similar price action. So we did have a weekly close above it. This was a little bit longer into the bear market compared to 2018. So about 144 days in, this was like when we had the rally up at the end of March of 2022. This was after the war in Ukraine had started. Weekly close up there. At the time, the sentiment in the market was shifting towards this war is good for Bitcoin, right? People at the time, people were using Bitcoin in Ukraine to get around sanctions and different things. So there was like a narrative that started to form. And that did not hold. And we had a few more legs to drop. And we actually retested it just before the FTX episode in November of 2022, and then came down again. And ultimately, it took about 430 days. So over a year, you know, in the last two bear markets, you know, for us to actually durably break through that level. And then that, you know, that was it was clear that we had bottomed, you know, once that had had had durably broke.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[11:00] So this breaking above short-term holder cost basis in 2026, is it safe to say that it just feels a little too early to you? I mean, I guess you have some other data to talk about current market structure, but it would be early given how it's played out in the other two cycles.
Michael Nadeau:
[11:20] I think so. I think that's what I kind of keep coming back to. It doesn't have to, right? Just because these things happened in the past, it doesn't mean that that has to happen. And we know that Bitcoin's market structure is evolving as it becomes a more mature asset. There's new buyers, there's ETFs, there's financialization. So everything is changing here. But the key question for me is like, have enough coins changed hands? I really think that's what it comes down to. And I think when you get to this stage of the bear market, that is like the key thing. It's like, has enough time sort of played out here for us to sort of like, recycle the coins get them into strong hands and then you know maybe there's a new narrative or conditions change right now you know you have some macro stuff which we can get into that may be a little bit of a headwind as well uh maybe that starts to clear so yeah i just think it's i think we're at a stage where it's really all about time and and then just paying attention to how coins are changing as time as time goes on but.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[12:22] This is a critical inflection point because in the 2022 cycle, one of those times we crossed the short-term holder cost basis, we actually sustained that. And that led to the end of the bear market into the next bull market rally. And it also marked the end in 2018. Now that was longer out, 468 days, but that marked the end. And so we have already locked in one weekly close above a short-term holder cost basis, about 79K. What if we lock in a second? Say this week, we lock in another. And then what if we lock in a third or even a fourth? Would that change your mind here? Would that be confirmation that something new is happening and the regime may have changed?
Michael Nadeau:
[13:07] I think so. So I think this is like, we're at a, I keep calling it an inflection point because this is really the time to be watching this price action to me. And if we can hold these levels, and it starts to become clear that there are buyers at these levels and long-term holders want to buy at ADK, that shifts the narrative. And we know that we focus on data to really understand what's going on out here, but we always have to factor in that, price can can lead fundamentals, right? So if we're looking at this, we're saying, well, there's really not, we're not seeing a ton of activity, spot volume, we're going to go through some of this. But there can always be just a mechanical shift or, you know, a narrative or whatever hits price goes, and then the fundamentals come after. So definitely a possibility and something I'm factoring in, but it would be a deviation from what we've seen in the past, if we had multiple weekly closes. And that's something to watch for.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[14:06] Let's go back to this cohort analysis that we've been looking at in the previous couple of weeks, because this was an interesting data point here. You said last week we saw a significant bump in this cohort, the 78 to 92K range cohort. That's everyone who purchased between 78K Bitcoin and 92K Bitcoin. Over the last week, they added 175,000 Bitcoin. Again, these cohorts is where you can see coins moving from hand to hand in the different types of holders that are represented here. The cohort that declined the most over last week, though, was the 66 to 78K cohort. They actually are down 133,000 coins. So that cohort, the $66,000 to $78,000, like older hands, let's say, slightly older hands, they sold. And they sold that into the newer hands cohort of $78,000 to $92,000 who were buying. So it looks like investors holding in the $66,000 to $78,000 cohort, they took this rally as an opportunity, you say, to sell and to raise cash. And that's curious is, I mean, who's the smart money here? Which cohort?
Michael Nadeau:
[15:22] Right. Well, I think that's the question. You know, we don't know for sure. And, you know, we're looking at a lot of this data and trying to paint a picture of what we think is happening. And yes, so that, you know, what you just went through there is kind of the mechanics of what happened. And so it makes sense, right? Price moved into those levels where the 78 to 92 cohort is going to pick up new coins. Yeah. But what was interesting is we saw a drop in the $66,000 to $78,000 cohort, which has been the cohort that's been picking up the most coins. So trying to understand who is the seller, what we are looking at here is the realized profit by age. So this is just looking at the holders that have been holding Bitcoin in their wallets for two to three years.
Michael Nadeau:
[16:04] And this is where we saw the spike. We were looking at all the different cohorts, trying to understand where is this coming from. This is really the only one that we saw this, you know, significant spike on, you know, anyone who's holding Bitcoin for two to three years, their purchase prices are between 27k and 72k or so. And so it does look to me like, that's the cohort that's, maybe they didn't sell the top, you know, they bought a few years ago, they waited too long, they didn't sell the top. Maybe they missed the rally in january and they're getting anxious and now that we go back up to 80k, uh they want to take some profits so it kind of looks like to me like that maybe what's playing out and this is typical right like like there's there are people in the market that want to buy dips but there are also people that have lost conviction that bought at higher levels or bought a few years ago and they lost their gains and they just want to break even and this is part of the reason why we always come back to like, coins need to change hands, coins still need to change hands. So it's just interesting is it's the first time we've seen, you know, some buyers, or sorry, some sellers, you know, stepping into the market.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[17:15] Is it the case that the older money, you know, the two to three year money, let's say, is smarter money than the younger money, the, you know, one year type money? Is that usually how the hands work here?
Michael Nadeau:
[17:28] I think so. I think generally speaking, like, I always tell people, like, if they're interested in Bitcoin, go buy a little and then study it and then learn about it. And like, you'll usually develop more conviction. And that, you know, that tends to, you know, the longer period that you've had, you've probably been more interested, you've probably been more intellectually curious, and you tend to be a little bit more of a smart money. You know it's possible that you know some of these people that were selling they think we're going lower and so they're just raising some cash you know to go lower maybe they maybe they've lost confidence unclear but um but we just know that there's once we got to that 80k level we started to see some some more sellers in the market so.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[18:09] Now the realized profit to loss ratio poked its head above zero percent for the first time this bear market so that has also happened uh i don't know if this happened in 2022. Maybe you tell me. Did it happen at all in previous cycles? And what does this tell us?
Michael Nadeau:
[18:28] So yeah, this is also something to keep an eye on, similar to a short- In 2022, we came up early in the cycle, but then we never came up until basically the new bull market had started. But we did have the same setup here back in 2018. So again, very close to where we're at today. So 217 days into it, we've seen this turn green. And it was about 229 days back in 2018.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[19:00] Now, in 2018, it looks like it's very tiny on the chart here, but it looks like it just stayed green for a very brief amount of time, maybe a couple of weeks, and then it dipped back down.
Michael Nadeau:
[19:10] Yeah, same as what we're seeing is barely poking up today. So, again, we're just at these critical levels here, and it just comes down
Michael Nadeau:
[19:19] to are there more sellers and buyers at these specific levels?
Ryan Sean Adams:
[19:24] Well, let's see if we see any signs of life in the market conditions. Funding rates, perps volume, spot volumes, ETF flows, stablecoin supply. Are we seeing signs of life here? Yeah.
Michael Nadeau:
[19:39] So, you know, we've been kind of just updating people weekly on just current conditions because we're at this inflection point and nothing has really changed. So the derivatives market, short term, you know, traders are still expecting weakness. It's come off a little bit. So the funding rates in terms of how negative the funding rates are have come down a little bit, but still negative. So not a huge shift there. We've been talking about spot volumes and how spot volumes, are very low right now.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[20:12] I mean, low, this looks anemic to me. This is historically low.
Michael Nadeau:
[20:17] Very low. Like all, you can go back to all the way to like 2019 to see those types of volumes. And this is Bitcoin, not in dollars. So it's Bitcoin. Yeah. I mean, that is interesting. It doesn't necessarily mean that it's super bearish, but what you do tend to see is like volatility increases when prices either go up or down. We've been rising and we haven't seen a shift in volume. So it just kind of tells me like it's bear market vibes, right? It's what you would typically see in a bear market.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[20:53] It's kind of apathy volumes. It's certainly not animal spirits.
Michael Nadeau:
[20:56] Yeah. And it tells you like, okay, price is moving up, but it sort of looks like there's just not a lot of contention at these price levels. Like there's not a lot of people that want to sell there's also not a ton of people that want to buy if you're in that type of market structure we've been talking about how there's been a lot of shorts on you can have these sort of odd you know mechanical moves just because shorts are being liquidated and stuff so i think that has played a role in this this rally that that we've seen um the other thing we've been looking at is just perps right perps volume's, are five times the amount of volume that we see in the spot market. So traders just prefer perps over spot these days. And there's been quite a bit of attention on the perps market, what's happening in hyperliquid. But we're still seeing bear market conditions even within the perps market. This chart here is showing the centralized and decentralized volumes. We're down 50% or so from the peaks right now. And the volumes are back to kind of where we were in Q2 of 2024. So not seeing like a kind of risk on shift in the market.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[22:08] Yeah. And certainly not in the spot volumes. That's almost the most damning chart in here. ETF flows holding in there. Stablecoin supply looks pretty much flat since October, but up a slight amount.
Michael Nadeau:
[22:19] A little bit. Yep.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[22:20] Yeah. And then RSI, this is interesting. Bitcoin typically mean reverts after hitting overbought levels. We are in overbought levels on the RSI, which means even in the short run, we're probably looking at some mean reversion. And if that happens, then we're not going to stay above the magic 79K number and stay above short-term cost basis on the weekly close here, right?
Michael Nadeau:
[22:44] Yeah, this is a big thing to pay attention to. You do typically have a mean reversion. If we did spike up again from here, that would be interesting. It has happened before, but that usually comes in a real extreme bullish conditions. So when you get to these key resistance levels... And the momentum is indicating that you're kind of overbought.
Michael Nadeau:
[23:06] This is a tough, tough thing to kind of, you know, overcome in the short term, I think.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[23:11] I guess that's where you're getting the justification of today's report title, which is momentum is waning. Here's how you describe it as you close today's report out. It is our view that the recent three-month rally was driven by a combination of long-term holders buying fair value in early February. You were buying some fair value in early February, I think, Mike. Like strategy, purchasing 7.5 billion of Bitcoin, that's bound to do something. The lack of significant outflows from ETFs and just the mechanics of the derivatives markets, I think you mean short squeeze there. But that's what it was. This wasn't a regime change, in your opinion, in the market. At least you're not seeing it in the on-chain data.
Michael Nadeau:
[23:51] That's my assessment of kind of where we're at. Yeah. This is the moment of truth. Like Bitcoin, I just think it really, we're at that stage here where this is the moment of truth. You know, there's some macro headwinds that are starting to form out there. I think this is also a challenge given kind of where we're at and we've had this pretty big move here. We had the CPI data came out yesterday and 3.8% on the CPI. We had PPI today. That was even worse. That was 6%. It was brutal.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[24:24] 6% PPI?
Michael Nadeau:
[24:25] 6% PPI was expected.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[24:26] That's producer inflation, right? So it's another measure of inflation, but...
Michael Nadeau:
[24:30] It's producer, which I think is actually more concerning because this means that the inputs of basically what producers are putting out and selling to consumers, those prices are going higher. For this reason, PPI tends to lead CPI, right? This is the producers. And so if producers are paying more for the inputs, and the reason it tends to lead CPI is because then they have to raise their prices and then that's where the consumers get hit.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[24:56] So CPI, we're 3.8 and heading higher then if PPI numbers are correct.
Michael Nadeau:
[25:00] It looks like we could be in that type of setup. The labor market has been, we think it's kind of weak, but the last few labor reports were solid.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[25:11] Like you think it's weak, but like last week, the numbers were great, right?
Michael Nadeau:
[25:16] Numbers were good, which if you're trying to get rate cuts, that's not a good thing because now the Fed has to focus on inflation. So you know we've been you know some of these parallels are going back to 2018 and some of the data we were looking at today but if the fed has to hike rates which you know i don't think that's in the the cards like in the near term but if this continues then it certainly could be an outcome and then now you're in a 2022 like situation where, the economy is running too hot. They have to cut or sorry, they have to hike.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[25:52] And that's Trump does not want to Warsh and Trump do not want to hike. I don't think that's what he's excited about from his new Fed chair.
Michael Nadeau:
[26:01] I don't think the equity markets want that. I don't think anybody wants that, but it's it looks like we could potentially be heading for that type of outcome. We'll see. But these are just some of the headwinds in front of us. And, you know, We know Bitcoin is sort of stretched at the end of this move. So it'll be interesting to see kind of where things shake out here.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[26:21] So those would be some coin changing hands catalysts on the downside. I almost feel like we should change this podcast title to the Coins Changing Hand Podcast. We talked about that so many times. There could be some upside, though, ahead, right? Strategy might still have some ability to deploy in these markets. A deal in Iran is always somewhere over the horizon. We just don't know how far. We have the clarity bill. The Clarity Act, I mean, ask me on a given day whether that thing's going to pass or not. It's been fluctuating from about 50% odds to about 70% odds. But that could be a catalyst to the short run. So there are some things that could change hands in the other direction, right?
Michael Nadeau:
[27:02] Yes. Yeah. I think if you're bullish, that's probably the things that you can look to. And like I said, if there is some, like, there's a lot going on here, right? If there's an end to the war or if the Strait of Hormuz is opened, if Clarity passes or Saylor tweets that he bought $10 billion of Bitcoin, these things can happen, and then the price just takes off. And then in some of these reports we'll be sharing, we'll be saying, well, look at this, the price took off. Now look at the fundamentals are coming behind it. And then that to me is what
Michael Nadeau:
[27:34] you're looking for to say, okay, we're off to the races again here.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[27:38] Now, unfortunately, you've got some bad news about June at the end of the report. So what has historically been in store for Bitcoin in the month of June?
Michael Nadeau:
[27:46] June is historically a rough month. And anybody who was around in 2022 will remember, you know, this is when, you know, ETH fell rapidly all the way down to 900 or so. Historically, not a great month. It's actually, and if you just look at bear market years, it's the worst month. So average returns over the last three bear markets are negative 20%.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[28:10] Yikes.
Michael Nadeau:
[28:10] In June. So, and when you see that, it's weird.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[28:14] Do you want to go on vacation? Let's take June off then. Like, it'll come back in July.
Michael Nadeau:
[28:18] Time to go to the beach, I think. Yeah, it's, you know, it just fascinates me sometimes how... The conditions in the market tend to line up with like these types of things where we know we're going into a weak month. Bitcoin has rallied, but now we're hitting these resistance levels and the macro is starting to get right. There's been like a lot of like kind of bullish tailwinds. And now, and this is kind of why I believe the momentum is waning a little bit here. You know, the marginal buyer maybe is not as interested at 80K. So very interesting, you know, time here in the markets. and we just did a sale for the DeFi Report annual plan, 20% off because I want people to be able to access some of this. I think it's a really important time to be paying attention so people can sign up and get 20% off. If you're on the monthly plan, we made it super easy to switch over.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[29:07] I hope you guys heard that, okay? It's time to lock in and what you want to
Ryan Sean Adams:
[29:11] do is just not just lock in for a month. You want to lock in for the next 12 months and Mike is running a plan right now, 20% off sale if you lock in TDR Pro annually so that comes to $16 per month that is cheaper than a Netflix subscription for all of the intel that Mike provides a fantastic deal there's a link in the show notes for that and give us as we close here Mike some of the key levels that you end today's note with so this is Bitcoin price $79,000 82.7K and 85K. These are three different price levels that you are watching. Why for each of them?
Michael Nadeau:
[29:52] Yeah. So 79K short-term holder cost basis. We had that important weekly close last week. So Sunday, eight o'clock, we'll be looking to see if we're going to get another two in a week. Weekly closes above that level, that would be a deviation from what we've seen in past bear markets. We've talked about the 200-day moving average. That's at 82.7K.
Michael Nadeau:
[30:15] And historically, we have not been able to breach the 200-day and hold that at this stage of a bear market. The one time we did was in 2014, and that did not hold. So that's a very key level. And we actually did get to like, we kind of like bumped into it. I think last week, we got up to like 82.7. That was the high of this rally um so we've touched it and then 85k we've talked about how there were a lot of dip buyers like early in the bear market when bitcoin had kind of come down into this this this range after um this was in the kind of december january period a lot of people who thought we were still in the bull market were like rushing in to buy that dip so there's quite a bit of supply at the 85k that's also the active uh realized price so realized price is a proxy for all of the uh coins in the market that price is around 55 56k but if we just look at that's including like old dormant coins satoshi's coins all of that if we only look at the the kind of cost basis of active coins that's about 85k so that's another important level to to keep an eye on here, but, you know, battle between buyers and sellers at this level, this is a level to watch.
Michael Nadeau:
[31:31] And, you know, we've part of like, you know, if we go back to February and kind of what we were saying back then. I was more convicted that Bitcoin was, we were so early in the bear market, we'd already come down to these fair levels that we were, that the probabilities were pointing to deep value, deep value opportunities.
Michael Nadeau:
[31:51] And what this rally has sort of done to shift my thinking a little bit is that we may not breach those levels. Like I'm expecting some weakness and I'm expecting some chop. But what will be interesting is to see is like if this volatility comes again, is it the nasty volatility that we saw in February where it's sort of a rapid decline or is it kind of just choppy, you know, volatility? And if that goes on for a month and you're kind of bouncing around the 70s or so, upper 60s, I think you can start to potentially make a stronger case that maybe we did bottom, you know, in February and we're just going to bounce around for a bit. So definitely a good time to be paying attention.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[32:36] It's a good time to be paying attention. It's a good time to lock in. Actually, don't go on vacation in June because Bitcoin could be on sale in June. And certainly TDR Pros is on sale right now. Yes. Okay, you guys can lock in for a year for $16. Fantastic value. Mike, I've been a subscriber from day one. I pay for this. I don't get it for free. And it's just incredible value. In fact, there were two TDR alerts in the last week of portfolio changes. So Mike has made some interesting moves in his portfolio. I won't reveal the details, but there was a buy. And then earlier this week, there was a sell. So there's a little bit of active trading going on here and some really interesting moves. So if you want to uncover what that looks like, you get access to Mike's portfolio as well when you become a TDR member. That would be the action item for today's episode. Also, I have to let you know as we close this out, you guys know none of this has been financial advice. It never is. This is an investor journal and we're on the journey right alongside you. So until next time, stay curious.