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Year-end isn’t a slowdown; it’s an opening. With inventory up 20–30% and buyer attention drifting to spring, Northwest Arkansas presents a rare mix of strong fundamentals and thinner competition. We break down why Q4 can be the smartest time to buy, how to compare your actuals to original underwriting, and the right way to decide between holding, refinancing, or selling as 2026 approaches. Along the way, we share the pitfalls of rushing into a deal for tax reasons and why bonus depreciation r...
Year-end isn’t a slowdown; it’s an opening. With inventory up 20–30% and buyer attention drifting to spring, Northwest Arkansas presents a rare mix of strong fundamentals and thinner competition. We break down why Q4 can be the smartest time to buy, how to compare your actuals to original underwriting, and the right way to decide between holding, refinancing, or selling as 2026 approaches. Along the way, we share the pitfalls of rushing into a deal for tax reasons and why bonus depreciation returning to 100% is powerful only when the deal stands on today’s numbers.
We also tackle the macro noise, rate-cut predictions, shifting inflation targets, and how those signals may affect cap rates, without building pro formas on hope. The operating principle: underwrite with current rates, assume conservative exit caps, and treat any future cuts as upside. From evaluating DSCR and debt maturities to timing targeted capex before a sale, we lay out a practical framework you can use this week. And if you’re weighing a 1031 exchange, hear our candid take on time pressure, overpay risk, and how sellers can strategically position to “catch” a 1031 buyer in Q4.
Deal flow is a relationship game, especially now. We share how we broadcast a tight buy box (2–24 units, well-located, light-to-moderate value-add) to brokers, lenders, and operators to surface pre-market leads, and how consistent communication and clean closes move you to the top of call lists. We close with concrete goal-setting and system upgrades for 2026, so you enter January at a sprint, not a jog. If Northwest Arkansas real estate is on your map, this conversation will sharpen your edge.
If this helped you think clearly about Q4 moves, follow the show, share it with a friend who invests in NWA, and leave a quick review so others can find it. Have a question or a deal to discuss? Message us on Instagram or at NWAInvesting.com.
Northwest Arkansas's go-to show for real estate agents, brokers, and investors looking to zoom in on the local market. Join us as we sit down with the leading voices in the area to hear how they're investing in NWA.
Hosted by (in order from left to right) Brian Wagers, Zach Stanley, and Brandon Still.
SPEAKER_00: Welcome to Northwest
Arkansas Investing Podcast, your
go-to source for real estate
investing in Northwest Arkansas.
SPEAKER_02: With your seasoned
investor just starting out, we
bring you expert insights,
market trends, and practical
strategies to help you build
wealth through real estate.
SPEAKER_01: From buying and
selling to property management
and long-term investment
planning, we cover it all so you
can make smart, informed
decisions in this fast growing
market.
Let's dive in.
All right, welcome back to
Northwest Arkansas Investing
Podcasts.
I'm here with Brian Wagers, my
co-host.
And uh we we just finished up
wrapping up talking about
underwriting and uh some
strategies and things that we
look at and we use in our
everyday practice.
And then before that, we talked
about partnerships and how we
structure those, um, you know,
what you should expect there on
structuring and and uh what
general partners are and limited
partners and some cool some
interesting terminology that I
think would be good for for any
kind of investor.
And uh we wanted to just wrap up
here.
If you haven't listened to
those, go back and listen to
them.
But if we just wanted to wrap up
here with kind of how we're
thinking about the end of 2025
in uh Q3, Q4 here, we're getting
towards the end of the year, and
uh kind of what strategies that
we're thinking about.
Um a lot has changed this year,
and and uh as far as even
obviously the market and how how
things have has continued,
inventory has continued to
climb.
Um, but also you know, here in
Northwest Arkansas, everything
has continued to be strong,
rents have continued to be
strong, prices have continued to
be strong.
Um, and then on top of that,
just with new administration
being uh being in January 20th,
some of the things that they
were able to pass in the big
beautiful bill uh and how that
has changed things for uh just
the way that we're thinking
about you know transactions and
uh wrapping up 2025 and headed
into 2026.
So um, Brian, any anything just
high level, obviously we're
gonna dig into this, but
anything that you're thinking
about specifically at the end of
2025, that um are you are you
trying to do as many deals as
you can or or uh are you still
being being pretty conservative
yourself right now?
What is it what does that look
like?
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I mean
September, October, November,
December, last four months of
the year.
Like this is my favorite time of
year, not just because
football's back and the holidays
are around here.
Like uh, you know, I love fall
and and the holidays, but a lot
of people kind of take their
foot off the gas actually around
this time.
So it's an opportunity for
people to come in on you know
deals where where some people
are already thinking about 2026,
which is good to be thinking
about 2026, but some people will
even pause anything they're not
trying to get done, you know,
whether they have they're not as
focused.
But you know, usually at the end
of the year, I'm seeing a lot of
good deals that happen.
You will whether people need to
get out of those deals or um
there's not as many buyers uh in
that opportunity.
So I I think it's a good time to
be a buyer at the end of the
year.
If you can make it happen and
put deals together, you know,
that's where besides some of the
strategies that we'll be talking
about, uh, you know, that's what
I I like to think about at the
end of the year.
I find uh I seem to find some
more good deals around this time
of year.
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I love that.
And even just thinking about the
residential market, um, I was
looking at some of the data
recently and and uh now from
this time last year, we're up
about anywhere between 20 to 30
percent in active inventory.
And so just thinking about even
as a residential single-family
home buyer, or uh, you know, if
you're looking for your own
house, or even if you're an
investor in that space, um, you
you know, historically the
market as we get in, like you
said, as we get into the fall,
especially into the holidays,
uh, buyers are just, you know,
that they're kind of thinking
about next spring and that that
being the time to buy.
And so you have a lot less
buyers in the market.
Inventory will continue to
likely climb.
And so you have a situation
where you have a lot of
opportunity, you know,
negotiation opportunities out
there if you're looking in that
space, and then again, too, in
in kind of that commercial or
multifamily space, uh, you know,
folks are kind of wrapping up
for the year and and stuff like
that.
SPEAKER_02: So for me, it's also
a time to not get sucked into
the whirlwind of all the
properties, all the asset
management, construction
management, whatever you're
doing, but also to take a step
back and look at okay, these
properties that I've been in,
whether that's from the
beginning of the year, a year
ago, two years ago, how how are
they performing today versus how
I was projecting to projecting
the performing?
Like we talked about
underwriting in our last
episode.
You know, go back going back to
that original underwriting and
seeing how you're performing
compared to that.
Is there any properties that you
may be looking at?
Okay, what's my next plan here?
Is our is our our debt coming
due in the next year?
Do we need to look at
refinancing that or do we need
to look at preparing for a sale?
Should we go ahead and put some
more money into this property to
really juice up the uh income?
Is there any opportunity on this
property to um to do that, to
get income up before we get a
sale?
Is there anything that we need
to do there?
Um so I like taking a step back
and looking at the properties
that I'm in, besides just the
you know, as I call it, the
whirlwind of what's you know
fast and and needed, but um, and
taking a step back and looking
at that and really looking at um
exactly that.
Should I should I be thinking
about selling?
Should I be thinking about
refinancing um and any other
levels to pull levers to pool?
SPEAKER_01: Yep.
I love that.
I think it's also just a time to
to like let's not make a dumb
decision, also, uh e even with
like kind of what we're saying,
with there being likely more
opportunities at the end of the
year because there are l there
is less competition out there uh
really really getting after it
towards the end of the year.
Um it's also time, you know, as
we think about things that have
changed in the administration
with uh with cost segregations
and and bonus depreciation, with
that being back at 100% bonus
depreciation and and there being
opportunity there for folks.
Um I think it's not now's the
time to to also think about,
hey, we've got to close
something.
We've likely got to get
something under contract in the
next month or two if we want to
close it by the end of the year.
But even with that, you know,
let's let's not make a dumb
decision uh just to get some tax
savings.
Is that do you see that
sometimes out there with the
things?
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I think I you
know that's why I'm not as a
huge fan of a 1031 because there
is so much pressure to overpay.
When you have a 1031, you're in
a you're in a kind of a time
crunch to really position that.
Yeah, that's great on on the tax
savings, but man, are you into
uh I see a lot of 1031 buyers
overpay.
If I'm if I'm a seller, if you
know when I'm a seller, it's
actually not a bad time to look
at listing some of your
properties too, to to quote
unquote catch a 1031 buyer.
If you if you can catch someone
that needs a 1031 that needs to
be completed by the end of the
year, it's not a bad time to
softly put it out with some
brokers or even put it on the
market where you might get you
might get lucky with that uh
1031 buyer.
So honestly, yeah, I I've never
1031 myself.
I I've helped facilitate a 1031
investor where they just did not
want the tax bill.
So that's fine.
You know, everyone has their
different tax strategies there.
It's it's a good time of year to
be talking to your CPA and
looking at your portfolio and
making any kind of strategies.
I think bonus depreciation and
cost segregations are a great
tool in the tool belt, besides
just you know, normal straight
line depreciation.
You know, bonus is is great if
you had a good if you had a good
year and some needs.
And then also looking at
opportunity zones, you know,
that's uh that's a good
opportunity for someone who has
a big uh tax burden, you know,
investing in opportunity zones
where you're deferring those
taxes and even not paying taxes
after you've in an investment
for 10 years.
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
Man, those are great.
I think uh we're we're
oftentimes, like you said,
talking about this, you know,
from with my clients at this
time of the year.
Hey, this might be a good idea.
Like I know you've been talking
about potentially listing, you
know, this small multifamily or
this little apartment complex
that you have, um you know, and
and now might be the time
because there are likely
typically historically you'll uh
you'll find a lot of 1031 buyers
in in Q4, into Q3 time frame.
And so we we talk about that all
the time.
And then yeah, going back to uh
to what you said with with uh
kind of those cost segregation
studies as well, um, you know,
some something to consult with
your CPA about and uh the
implications of that and what
that looks like.
But um great opportunity for
investors to be able to uh, if
you're able to set it up
correctly, to be able to have
some really big tax savings with
uh with how things have changed
with the new bill that passed.
So I I'd recommend getting with
your CPA and kind of talking
through what that looks like.
But just as we look kind of look
at at 2026 and beyond, a lot of
stuff in the news right now,
especially about uh rate cuts
and uh how the Fed is looking at
things.
Something interesting I uh that
I saw recently um was that maybe
maybe that the Fed has now taken
off their uh I guess their where
they they want previously had
where they want inflation to be
at 2%, they've now taken off
that guideline.
I don't know if you've seen that
as of late.
Um and I I'd have to uh I'll
I'll pull that up to show you
after this, but um they have
taken off their guideline of 2%,
and to me that feels like maybe
the guideline is higher, uh
right, or that it's changed um
now.
And so to me, it feels like you
know, if that's the case and if
inflation's gonna net gonna be
higher in the future, um, the
dollar is dead, or the dollar is
gonna continue to go down in
value, and assets are gonna
continue to go up in value, real
estate, stocks, you know, I
mean, all the things that we
talk about.
Um, so I think what what are
your thoughts?
I know obviously that's a lot
there, but um Fed is obviously
talking right now.
We're the uh beginning of
September about cutting rates
here in September.
And so what what are your
thoughts as you look to 2026?
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I think the
Fed's biggest priority is
inflation.
You know, they're also looking
at the job market too, like you
know, what what's uh
unemployment at?
You know, what what are kind of
some recession indicators?
I think uh it's really
interesting to see the current
administration like push to
privatize the Fed to like pr
like like put pressure on them
to lower interest rates.
Um, I think interest rates will
come down.
Uh I personally am not
underwriting for them to come
down, but I I think they will
come down.
I'm it's hard to predict uh when
they will come down or or what
they will come down.
You know, for me, I'm trying to
do good deals that make sense in
today's market.
If we're assuming that where
interest rates aren't going
anywhere, um, you know, that
that's how I I'm looking at it.
I'm being way I'm being active,
I'm staying active, super
active, not taking the foot off
the gas.
You know, I think there's
there's a lot of activity right
now, but I think as we get
deeper into 2025, you will see
people start to take the foot
off the gas for 2025.
So there will be those
opportunities.
But for 2026, you know, I was
looking at some of my portfolio
at, you know, w when are some of
my uh notes coming due.
You know, I have a property that
has, you know, I was just
re-looking at it, and it's like
the DSCR is like 2.2.
Um, and we have a 3.5% interest
rate that's good through 2027.
So I've you know, before I
really was digging in, I was
getting a lot of calls on it and
entertaining high offers, but uh
I think you know, for that
particular property, uh I'm
gonna sit on it, continue to sit
like I'm not looking at it until
the end of 2026.
Before I was thinking, yeah,
maybe I'll try to exit this at
the end of 2025 or beginning of
2026, but why not keep holding
on to that property and let
interest rates come down and let
the market continue to
appreciate and then go from
there, maybe refinance that and
and sell it.
So for me, I'm I'm looking at
what properties am I going to
try and sell and what properties
am I am I holding on to.
SPEAKER_01: Yep, absolutely.
And I think just kind of on top
of that, just thinking about Fed
cuts and stuff like that, that
will naturally affect kind of
where cap rates continue to
change uh here in Northwest
Arkansas and and around the
country.
And so that'll be just something
to keep an eye out for.
There are a lot of uh
predictions out there that rates
may drop 50 basis points.
Um, I think that'd be
significant and uh could really
kind of change some things for a
lot of people.
Um but realistically, I think
the highest prediction is that
it'll it'll drop 25 basis
points.
But I I like the practice of
what you're talking about and
and really just underwriting
deal, continuing to underwrite
deals at today's rates and not
hoping for you know tomorrow's
predictions.
Yeah, if it makes sense today,
then that that's just gravy
right there.
SPEAKER_02: If if it does come
down, or when it does come down,
that's just you know an extra
bonus for you.
SPEAKER_01: Yep, absolutely.
But yeah, just as we as we
continue to look at the end of
25 and and into 26, um, you
know, I think for anybody out
there, I think now's the time to
really put foot on the gas.
Um if you're if you're looking
for something specific, make
sure everybody in your network
knows you're looking for it, um,
whether that be on social media,
whether that be some sort of
other outlet, uh, word of mouth
or email or however you want to
do it specifically.
I know that's a practice I've
been trying to put in
continuously, is that, hey, I'm
looking for two to 24 units in
Northwest Arkansas.
Um, and I Brian, I know a lot of
people when they think about
multifamily, they're thinking
about Brian Wagers and and uh
and so that's what you want to
continue to you continue to want
to be that guy and and or that
gal that that uh you know will
be at the forefront of those of
those opportunities when they
come up because you can't be
everywhere every time.
And so even if you are a deal
finder, um you know some of your
biggest assets are gonna be
brokers or are gonna be other
people that are out in the
market looking for deals, and
and so any way that you can be
in front of them and be a closer
and and be someone that takes
care of other people, I think uh
the better is as we go into
2026.
SPEAKER_02: So yeah, I I think
even high level too, without
getting too nitty-gritty, I I
I'm looking at my systems and
what what what was work what
worked really well throughout
2025, what were some
opportunities to improve on,
what can I be implementing in
2026?
You know, everyone loves it.
You're I love I I'm a very
goal-oriented and goal, you
know, driven individual, you
know, which is great.
It happens at the end of the
year, but it's not a bad time to
start doing it now, like looking
at uh your goal like goals for
2026 and and even setting some
goals for the end of 20, like,
you know, I I would like to
close on two more existing
properties uh you know in 2025,
and I would like to, you know,
do a develop, you know, at least
get a develop one more
development deal in the work.
So, you know, that's kind of my
goals for the end of 2025, is
close two more existing deals,
you know, that five to a hundred
units, and then uh get a get a
development deal moving and
breaking ground.
SPEAKER_01: Love it.
Yeah, I think that's uh I'm I
mean I'm very similar and and uh
super goal driven.
Love to kind of at least uh
visit that every end of the year
and and uh kind of where we want
to be at the end of next year
and and uh where we want to be
in five years, ten years, and
what that looks like.
And so would encourage anybody
to continue to do the same,
especially if you're in real
estate, and uh and then just
look back at those often, you
know, write them down every day
if that's something that works
for you and or uh revisit them
quarterly even and uh and then
have those in your corner that
encourage you towards that.
So but 2025 was uh you know, I
think a really strong year for
Northwest Arkansas.
I think 2026, especially with um
the growth we're we're gonna
continue to have, will uh will
continue to be strong here in
Northwest Arkansas.
And so if there are
opportunities out there that
that make sense conservatively
at today's rates, um, you know,
I think we would Brian and I
both would recommend that that
uh you struggle and consider and
try to jump on that.
SPEAKER_02: So yeah, and I think
you know, we we still have a
quarter left in 2025, and we'll
we'll be hit probably having
another episode of uh uh closer
to the end of the year, but to
really be forward thinking, you
know, now is the best time to be
you know forward thinking.
SPEAKER_01: Yep, absolutely.
Well, thanks again for listening
to uh NWA Investing Podcast.
We're uh we're we want to
continue to bring y'all value,
we're kind of where we see it,
and and uh we've got the RBS
skyline reports that will likely
drop sometime in the next few
weeks to month, and uh we'll
quickly get together and get you
all the info on that and talk
through really all the data from
the first half of 2025, and uh
and then we've really got some
great guests coming up as well
down the pipeline and and uh for
the rest of 2025.
So continue to listen in, and if
there's anything that we could
cover that you guys would like
to see, reach out um to our
Instagram or reach out to our
emails uh direct, and and we'd
love to talk through that.
So yeah, nwainvesting.com.
That's right.
Thanks again for listening, and
we'll see you soon.
SPEAKER_00: All right, thanks,
guys.
Thanks, guys.
SPEAKER_01: Cool.
SPEAKER_00: Again, thank you
guys for tuning in.
I'm gonna go ahead and uh list
some sponsors off here.
We're gonna start with Winstone
Private Lending.
This episode is brought to you
by Winstone Private Lending, one
of the top private and hard
money lenders now serving
Northwest Arkansas.
Whether you need short-term
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or creative financing, they've
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If you're looking for a real
lending partner, check out
Winstone Private Lending.
Link is in the show notes.
Our next sponsor is Advantage,
Title, and Astro.
They're a local company, they do
great work.
Specifically Kayla Phillips.
I can speak personally on this
sponsor because I use Kayla for
all of my transactions.
Uh it's been two, three, four
years now, and Kayla and I have
done a ton of deals.
We probably do between 65 to 80
deals a year together, um, and
they do a great job.
The s the SOP, so systems and
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As an agent, as a homeowner, as
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They do a great job of
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I would highly encourage you if
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Advantage is A D V A N T A G E
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SPEAKER_02: Don't forget to
connect with us on Instagram,
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real estate insights and behind
the scenes content.
SPEAKER_01: Have a question you
want us to cover, send it our
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And if you're interested in
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Thanks for listening, and we'll
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