The roving recession may be over.

There were a few pleasant surprises in the GDP report.

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Too fast but not too far?
Welcome to the Know the Difference Minute for Thursday, July 27th.
Second quarter gross domestic product rose at a 2.4% annualized pace. It’s not spectacular, but it’s not shabby either. There were a few pleasant surprises in the GDP report.
Different sectors have been passing the recession-baton around, but that may be mostly behind us. Goods spending had its year-long recession in 2022. Investment spending finally emerged from a four-quarter-long recession. Services spending growth is slowing, but slow growth is different from outright contraction.
The roving recession may be over. The Fed has moved from hiking fast and furiously to being a bit wishy-washy about future hikes. A pregnant pause by the Fed could help bring some stability and clarity to the outlook. They may have moved too fast with rate hikes than what many would have liked, but the upside is that they probably haven’t moved too far.
I’m Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management. That is your Know the Difference Minute.