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Welcome to Defining Hospitality, the podcast focused on highlighting the most influential figures in the hospitality industry. In each episode we provide 1 on 1, in depth interviews with experts in the industry to learn what hospitality means to them. We feature expert advice on working in the industry, behind the scenes looks at some of your favorite brands, and in depth explorations of unique hospitality projects.
Defining Hospitality is hosted by Founder and CEO of Agency 967, Dan Ryan. With over 30 years of experience in hospitality, Dan brings his expertise and passion to each episode as he delves into the latest trends and challenges facing the industry.
Episodes are released every week on Wednesday mornings.
To listen to episodes, visit https://www.defininghospitality.live/ or subscribe to Defining Hospitality wherever you get your podcasts.
DH - Isaac Collazo
===
Isaac: [00:00:00] You want 'em to start with you and stay with you until they no longer travel, which, uh, or, You know, can no longer travel.
Intro: What I do is inconsequential. Why I do what I do is I get to shorten people's journeys every day. What I love about our hospitality industry is that it's our mission to make people feel cared for while on their journeys. Together we'll explore what hospitality means in the built environment, in business, and in our daily lives.
I'm Dan Ryan, and this is Defining Hospitality.
Sponsor: This podcast is sponsored by Berman Fall Hospitality Group, a design-driven furniture manufacturer who specializes in custom case goods and seating for hotel guest rooms.
Dan: Today's guest is a multi-time VP in the hospitality industry. He's someone whose expertise spans brand strategy, competitive intelligence, operations, planning, and analytics. He's served brands like Promise Marriott and IHG. He's currently the head of analytics at STR, and he's [00:01:00] also the co-host of Tell Me More, A Hospitality Data Podcast. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome Isaac Collazo. Welcome Isaac.
Isaac: Hey, thank you, Dan. Thanks for having me on.
Dan: Oh, I'm so glad to have you on. And I just want everyone to know I first, I don't think we met at the lodging conference, but I've seen you up on stage speaking and usually it's like a really quick boiled down. know what the format is, but it's like 30 seconds ago, but you really make the data come alive. then we were just at Alice in Los Angeles and I was with Adrienne Scribner, And so I'm gonna give her a shout out 'cause I was gonna go have lunch with her in a corner. And then she's like, no, let's mingle.
Because that's why we're all here. And there were, there were half the amount of people that were normally supposed to be there because of the big storm back east. So we sat down at your table and then I was like, wait, you look really familiar. And then I just remembered how you make data come alive in such a way.
And I know we talked about it and I got excited and I was like, oh my God, I'd love to have you on my podcast. [00:02:00] Because I think a lot of the people who listen here from architects to designers, developers, managers, uh, owners, I think that they would just love to. Hear how the data that you make come alive affects their lives.
And then you said, oh, I have a podcast too. So it was just like, oh good, we got two talking heads that will get 'em, like, will get us in the same room and we'll go. So I want to just say thank you and it's so great to meet you and a shout out to Adrian for making me sit there. Um, that was awesome. And she's gonna be on in a couple weeks as
well, so
Isaac: Yeah, it's uh, it, it was great. It was fun. Yeah, it was a very different Alice Winter storm Fern really just, uh, uh, took a lot of people out because they couldn't get on a plane 'cause so many planes were, uh, canceled And so many flights. So, but it was, uh, it was still a good Alice, so I enjoyed it.
So the most important thing,
Dan: was great. And, and I had really good Korean barbecue in the food truck right there. So that was, that was
Isaac: why,
Dan: what I had
Isaac: what did I eat? I don't remember what I like, I whatever I had, I liked as well. 'cause I did ask you what you were eating, but I don't remember what [00:03:00] I ate anymore. But yeah, it was like, I love the,
Dan: We were so, we were so in enraptured with, with our, with our conversations with each other,
Isaac: yes. So
Dan: heads.
Isaac: shout out to Jeff Higley who puts together the ALICE conference and the food truck idea was genius. I told him that whenever, 2, 3, 4 years ago, whenever it first started. That, that is great. What a great idea.
Dan: and it's also because, You know, you're in these conference rooms and ballroom and,
Isaac: Yep.
Dan: nice to just go outside
Isaac: Hi.
Dan: truck and get fresh air and, and LA sun. It
Isaac: Yes.
Dan: it was awesome. And actually, that's a type of hospitality, right.
Isaac: Right.
Dan: conferences and everything else. And what does hospitality mean to you?
Isaac: It, for me, it's people serving people. It goes right back to that, those three words. I mean, that's what hospitality is. Either be it a restaurant, be it a hotel, people taking care of you.
Dan: Hmm.
Isaac: And many times, You know, you don't know what state of mind either the server or the recipient is. But again, it's just people, just being people and just taking care of each other.
And I think that's the greatest thing [00:04:00] about hospitality. So I love this business. Been in it for 30 something years. I don't remember, but it, it's just a great business to be in. It's just, that's it's life, right? It's what happens,
Dan: It is. And I am amazed though, because really your ability to analyze data and take numbers and make them come alive and tell the story, right. You could apply that anywhere.
Isaac: right.
Dan: So, and I'm, I don't know where you started earlier in your career, but how did you find your way? I, I assume you did it for many different platforms, but how did you find your way into hospitality and what kept you in hospitality?
Isaac: know, uh, it was just a fluke. Right? So just like every other person trying to make it, trying to pay car insurance, right? It goes back to such very basic things. I grew up in a very moderate household, so didn't have much money. So when I'm on my own, I was, started working actually very young. I started at, um, young in terms of a professional career, [00:05:00] uh, was with a marketing firm when I was, I think a freshman or sophomore in college.
So most people don't start professionally in the freshman or sophomore year, right? And so these two individuals who started their own firm in San Antonio. Uh, began this marketing firm called, uh, Metro Consultants, and I was employee number one. They took me under their wing and started really teaching me, threw me into the fire and said, this is how it is to, to service a client.
This is, You know, I, how to work with the client, how to create the ideas. And it was the best education ever. And again, I was still in college And so really my background was marketing. So, and it's storytelling. It goes right back to that and the real connection between data, storytelling and just, uh, and my career is radio, tv, film.
I was a radio TV film major in college.
Dan: Oh,
Isaac: And so I was gonna be a film producer so I can edit, so I could edit this if you wanted me to edit, I can, I could do, [00:06:00] I could do film edits, I could do audio edits, I could take out my uhs so I know everything.
Dan: I need Alex, our producer to know you. Feel no threat here, Alex. You're good. You're good.
Isaac: But I could, I, I learned all that. I actually have an associate's degree in a radio, TV film, and then I have a bachelor's degree. And then I also did a, a business I double majored in, uh, when I got to the big university. And then I went on, got my MBA to when I really started getting into the data side.
But, uh, going back to your question, hospitality, it just happened because I was working with these folks. Then I went on to work for a marketing with a big bank in, uh, San Antonio, which still exists. If you watch the Spurs and you see Frost Bank Center. I was at Frost Bank and the guy who is now president and CEO or chairman, he was the head of marketing at the time.
So I worked for him. And then, um, this lady who sat next to me. Knew someone at LaQuinta ends. At the time, LaQuinta Ends was still being run. The CEO was still, uh, SAML [00:07:00] Bar Shop. He had started the company and it was listed in New York Stock Exchange based in San Antonio. And so she goes, this is really cool job.
I think you'd be great for. I don't know why she did that, but she did. And sure enough, I ended up at La Quinta and the selling point, this is the greatest selling point. All of us had a desktop computer.
Dan: Oh,
Isaac: You got.
Dan: you're dating yourself.
Isaac: And so, uh, and then I started, um, so I was in marketing there, did a lot of analysis, well, actually did all the content and was in charge of all the production
Dan: Oh,
Isaac: from TV to print to billboards.
And one day I did an analysis on our billboard spend and the CMO, John Kagy, at the time came into my office or into my, it was an office, but it was a cube. It's one of those things, you remember those days?
Dan: a desktop
Isaac: Yeah. At a desktop. And he, uh, goes, you did this. And I'm thinking, I'm all of 26, 27 ish thinking, Hey, I'm in trouble.
What did I do wrong? Right? And he goes, this is [00:08:00] fabulous. I said, really? He goes, you have real quantitative abilities. And I, I do, I thought, I'm just a, a design, You know, creative kind of. And that's how I got into data. Literally, that is how I got into data. Started going into the research side. The, uh, the qualitative side started doing all the qualitative analysis, guest satisfaction for LaQuinta ends, and then we started really analyzing reservation data.
And that was the first time that, again, it was very difficult to use data in those days because a lot of it was mainframe, but because we all had desktops, there was this cool new program called, um, Microsoft Access.
Dan: Hmm.
Isaac: And you could link tables, you could, you could join tables. So it was relational database.
And that is how I truly began into the data world and have been there ever since.
Dan: Okay, cool. And I think a good way to tee this part of the conversation up is, so most of our listeners are [00:09:00] designing, building, owning, operating hotels, right? But they're really deploying the CapEx, making these beautiful, wonderful memory, experiences,
Isaac: Right.
Dan: Um, but oftentimes what I find is we lose sight of the fact that these are real assets, right?
Like a billboard is a type of real asset that ha generates a yield and a return the way to oil refineries. So multifamily, like you have everything all, all in there. And hospitality is one of the segments. Um, one, one of, well, I, I've heard you speak many times over the years, but specifically something that struck me back in October. I think it was October at the lodging conference, you said that this, it was Q3 or Q4 was the first quarter
Isaac: Yeah.
Dan: in a, in a non infl, uh, in a non recessionary environment where a
Isaac: Right.
Dan: So we're [00:10:00] not in a recession. Average daily rate dropped. And that really struck me. I don't really know what that meant, but it seems shocking
Isaac: Yeah,
Dan: And
Isaac: yeah,
Dan: so I want you to talk to that one. Like,
Isaac: yeah.
Dan: be shocking? And what did you learn from that? And even with hindsight, what do you learn? And then how does that tie into your latest podcast, which everyone should give a listen to, um, where the title of the pod was, demand is Turning a Corner.
So
Isaac: Right.
Dan: what did it mean and how does that
Isaac: Correct. Great.
Dan: that together and tell us, tell us a story about that.
Isaac: Yeah. We'll talk about, again, beginning in second quarter, last year we started, we started a trend in this industry again that we had not seen in a non recessionary period. Now, many of you listening could probably argue, no, the economy's really weak. Well, that's a, that's a sentiment, but when you look at the data, GDP, the economy was actually pretty, pretty solid last year in this to be solid.
So again, we're looking at all the government figures and the economy is measured by data. [00:11:00] And so, no, the US was not in a recession in 2025, nor is it in a recession in 2026 as of yet.
Dan: Now let me just ask one question jokingly. Not
Isaac: Okay. Okay.
Dan: with the whole Doge initiative, they
Isaac: Yep.
Dan: of a lot of the economists and the reporting. So are you trusting the government information or do, are you looking at like third party other metadata and other analytics? Like how do you make that judgment and is there like, are you seeing a reduced quality in quantitative information coming from the government?
Isaac: No, we're not really seeing a reduce, it's mostly a timeliness. We've seen some, some, uh, reduction, not reduction, but yeah, not as timely as before, but it's still the same data. And again, we're trending it, we're looking at it multiple ways. We also use tourism economics, which is, or excuse me, Oxford Economics, which is tourism is a part of, uh, Oxford, but Oxford.
And so we rely on them as well. We rely with a lot of other economists that we follow. And so we all feel that the data is, You know, it's still usable [00:12:00] and it's correct. And again, you can also tell, again, I'm a great believer of observation and yes, there are sectors of our economy. That are being impacted lower income households and even some middle income households.
But if you look at everything else, You know, again, the, uh, it overall, the economy's still humming. You know, you go to a restaurant, it's still pretty busy. You go to a city like Nashville, where I find myself today, it's still people are traveling. So that's why we know it's not a true recession. A recession, when I remember in 2008 when the, when the recession, when there was a real recession, you could see it in my neighborhood, my neighborhood in Atlanta.
I have two homes. I have a, my Atlanta home, and then my, uh, here a home in, in Nashville. But in my neighborhood, you could feel it because everyone in my neighborhood is a corporate gypsy, as I like to say. We've all lived everywhere we moved, we worked for all these big companies. And then you could see the impact where people were losing their jobs, homes, going on the market, people no new, You know, new cars were [00:13:00] not as prevalent anymore.
And
Dan: getting taller.
Isaac: yeah.
Dan: Hmm.
Isaac: So that's how you can see it. So again, that's why we, the, the economy's not in a, a recession at the moment, but, um, what I said at, at, at, uh, lodging and as, as I, um, and lodging, by the way, is probably the most difficult presentation I do because that three minute data speed thing is, takes a lot of work.
It takes more work than us talking because I have three minutes and I've gotta get as much as I can in those three minutes.
Dan: Well,
Isaac: So I,
Dan: me like it worked and here we are.
Isaac: yeah,
Dan: was, you set the hook and here we are. So
Isaac: I,
Dan: pays off.
Isaac: I don't get nervous speaking in front of people. I don't, I've speaking, I've spoken in front of 9,000 people before, and that doesn't make me nervous. Lodging makes me nervous because you just gotta be on point and you, And so I have a script.
I literally write my script and practice, and practice and practice so that I know it's three minutes long. So that one's difficult. But there I said again that we hadn't seen this and we hadn't. Normally when RevPAR goes [00:14:00] negative. It is linked. You can see the direct connection to the economy. And this time it was, we're going opposite directions.
The economy was still growing, but in the industry was not. And that was different. And it was very different. Some of it has to do with sectors of the economy 'cause we're just measuring total GDP, there is no, You know, a real economic measure that can use for different, uh, household levels of income and things.
Right. Especially on a month to month basis.
Dan: just so everyone knows, a rece, the true term of a recession is negative GDP growth two quarters in a row, and sometimes data gets revised and you don't know you're in a
Isaac: Right.
Dan: after. But we're far enough from Q2 of last year that that recession didn't happen.
Isaac: Yeah, it didn't happen. And again, and there were other points that, again, we still had employment growing. There were, I mean, there were points of saying, no, you can't be in a recession and growing. And we were doing pretty well in the employment front. So, um, that's [00:15:00] what I talked about and said, and we did have, uh, three quarters of, uh, negative RevPAR.
Again, that's very rare. We saw a DR also come down below the rate of inflation. Uh, so it was just a very weird environment and even demand was negative.
Dan: And not just, not just rare. One of those, whether it was RevPAR or a DR, I don't remember. 'cause I could have gotten it wrong 'cause I'm a idiot. Um, but it was the first time that that had ever happened since tracking all of the
Isaac: Yeah. Yeah. We, it was just very, yes. We've never seen this very odd. It was odd, odd for us. So what's different now, when I was doing the January analysis, so, You know, December came in December, RevPAR was still down. It was down like 0.1%, like very little down. I remember. And I, You know, I have that number correct.
Um, but then January was up 0.5 that I do know is right. And, um, I realized, and again, sometimes you're looking at [00:16:00] data, and again, we're, I'm looking at this weekly, I'm daily, I'm looking at data, but sometimes you don't see something until you just see it and you go, whoa. That's different. And so when I saw the December and January data together, I said, wait a minute.
This is the beginning of a trend. Because beyond before that, if you're looking at this at at at a time series, everything was going down, especially in the fourth quarter. And then you just, December starts this, and then you get January, that's up positive. And then at the same time, I'm working with all the February data and I notice, wait a minute, this, this is continuing.
We now have three months where the demand side, as well as the RevPAR side are, are trending upward. And that was the re That's why we change, uh, change the title or have the title on our latest podcast about that demand trend that it is, this is different. This is, You know, did we turn the corner right?
And again, it's hard to say that three months is a trend. So I do always [00:17:00] caution, but it sure does look like a trend that something's changed. I even, uh, correlate, I was, I al I also overlaid it overlaid, uh, TSA screening data with demand. And if you look at it in the time series, especially in the summer and toward the end of the year, there's a gap where TSA is growing.
So people are traveling, but hotel demand is declining and then comes December, November, December, and they're starting to realign and we're like, wow, that's different again. So that's why we're, we're right now in this, uh, no man's land because we have to wait a few more weeks, months before we can actually say, Hey, we're out of this, uh, whatever we were in.
But it sure is more encouraging. And just for, um, as a side note, February RevPAR, based on our preliminary data, uh, probably increased 4.3%.
Dan: That's huge.
Isaac: Since January of 2023.
Dan: [00:18:00] Really.
Isaac: Yeah.
Dan: So, okay, so now, uh, from me, listen, reading the Wall Street Journal, listening to Bloomberg Radio and all this, I keep hearing and reading about this KS shaped recovery. Right? And you talked about that a little bit earlier in this conversation where, okay, so you're, you're not everyone is feeling the, we're not in a recession, but not everyone is feeling hunky dory.
Right? So, the lo I think you've said like the lower income, uh, tears are struggling and not feeling that great in the hotel world or hospitality world. There's so many different segments, but there's luxury, upper upscale, upscale, upper midscale, midscale, and economy. When you'd see that 4.3% is that. on the upper upscale or lower, like where does that, how does that segment come and is, does that mean if it's driven on the upper tiers, are they seeing 10% or 8%
Isaac: Yeah.
Dan: other ones are dragging?
Isaac: [00:19:00] Um, yeah, that's a great question. And let me just clarify. I said January, it's the highest, it's January, 2023. No, it's January, 2025. So I knew that and I just, when it came out, I knew it was wrong, but I just wanna clarify that.
Dan: but a 4.3% growth in anything
Isaac: Yeah,
Dan: lot. Right.
Isaac: yeah. Uh, it's coming. It was pretty widespread what I saw in the data, and I can't, I am, I'm blanking out right now in terms of seeing my charts in my head, but we saw demand growth across all the chain scales.
Dan: Really?
Isaac: so that's different. And then, and it has to be because the only way we can get that kind of growth is it has to be more widespread. So even though luxury, we've been talking about the khap economy and the k and even bifurcation in the hotel industry. You gotta remember, luxury is such a small segment
Dan: Yeah.
Isaac: of our, the biggest segments are upper midscale.
Just think about Holiday Inn Express, Hampton Inn, you see them everywhere. So that's the bulk of our industry. And then you also have upscale where the Courtyard, Hilton, garden Inns [00:20:00] are in. That's another big segment. The luxury is really, really small, You know?
Dan: most of, most of the clients that I have on the, on the design side and project management side and ownership side, they kind of play in that luxury and lifestyle
Isaac: Right.
Dan: which is okay, luxury is the small part, which
Isaac: Yeah.
Dan: parabolic right now.
Isaac: Right.
Dan: But that lifestyle, I don't really know where that fits in because that goes everything from independence to upper upscale to upscale, and
Isaac: Yeah.
Dan: upper midscale there's, but one of the things I heard about a year ago was that while that luxury and lifestyle segment, um, and it, I don't know exactly how to. Break it down by the standard segments, but that luxury and lifestyle segment has 10% of the total rooms that are available. I heard this from some quarterly call I was listening to, and they have 10% of the, of the rooms, but they're contributing more than 20% of the earnings to all [00:21:00] the big brands. So IHG, um, Hilton, Marriott, aor, those all the big ones.
I don't mean to leave anybody out, but they're, they're contributing outsized earnings to all, to all the big brands. And what I've seen from a guest experience perspective is a bifurcation of luxury and lifestyle from the big brands. And like IHG has put Kimpton and Regent and vignette and six Senses under one umbrella. Hilton has put, uh, graduate and Waldorf and, oh my God, I'm gonna forget them all. Marriott has put, uh. their luxury from Ritz Carlton to jw, um, under another umbrella, a core has all their, You know, boutique and luxury under, but they're all kind of out how people think about the brand from a guest experience perspective.
Many of them are moving teams into New York City [00:22:00] to deal with, like, just have the freshest, most creative new ideas coming through. And this is all anecdotal story and experience that I'm sharing, but how do you tie that growth? Or is, do you, when I share that with you, what does that make you think? Like, am I just off base in that
Isaac: No, I don't think you're off base. I mean,
Dan: what, what's your opinion?
Isaac: I don't think you're off base. And again, I think lifestyle brands have been growing for some time and for all of us that have been in the industry in a long time, it's a natural. It's a natural, uh, evolution of the industry, right? There was a time in our industry where a business traveler wanted the assurance that everything was gonna be exactly the same.
And the by being exactly the same, IE vanilla, it was a quality cue that it was exactly the same. So you knew what you were gonna get, you knew where you were at, et cetera. And that was what was expected back in the eighties and nineties. And that's what people felt was [00:23:00] necessary. And then we started seeing the break, um, that break with brands like Kimpton, the original Kimpton brand coming out and doing just something very different.
Dan: Yeah.
Isaac: remember talking to some people in some research I was doing about Kimpton versus Main, the normal brands, the Hilton, Marriotts, uh, et cetera. And what I, what struck me then at that time was the individuals I were, I was talking to were exactly the same psychographic. What
Dan: Yeah.
Isaac: what they wanted was something different.
They were road warriors. So the, yeah, they were tired of the beige walls that I look around my office, which is kind of beige and gray and they wanted something different. So lifestyle hotels is what, what that emerged. And Kimpton was kind of on that forefront to start pushing that design element, what your world and really making it fun.
When you walk into the room and you're like, wow, this is really cool. And I go back to like when you watch the Gilded Age or you watch period pieces, hotels were always the grandeur of a [00:24:00] hotel, right? They always were inspiring. And you like you got in awe. You walk in and you go, oh my God, this is beautiful, this is different.
And maybe as an industry we lost that because we went to cookie cutter and for quality and everything's exactly the same. You lost the individuality of it and you lost the awe. Lifestyle hotels come in. And I think it's bringing that back and I think that's why they, I think people are attracted to that because you wanna say, God, I, at this really cool hotel, and now in the era of Instagrams, you wanna take a picture with and show your friends where you're at.
So
Dan: What's interesting is, um, that wanting everything the same, that was my dad, right? He wanted to know that that iron was in the same location at every Marriott courtyard he stayed at and he was a road warrior.
Isaac: yeah.
Dan: whereas, and there's this generational rebellion that just has happened since people were around, right?
Your parents do it one way, you want to do it different. Your parents think about the world one way. You want to think about it different, and it's just, that's just the nature of the [00:25:00] beast. And it is interesting to see how Kimpton, 'cause that's actually how I got my start in the industry. When I started my first business, Kimpton was like my first client, and I'm forever grateful for that living in San Francisco at the time.
It was very exciting. Um, and then w came around and that was super exciting. But was like this little explosion that happened in that era,
Isaac: Yeah.
Dan: And don't know, I just feel like now is acquiring and Hilton is acquiring a lot of these luxury and lifestyle and also beefing up their luxury and lifestyle. But what's interesting on that generational rebellion, to someone at Marriott, the, a couple weeks ago we were, we were talking in front of a bunch of, bunch of multifamily developers and You know, Marriott has 40 some odd brands, right? But what's interesting is they're not just creating a language for each brand. They're also, you said psychographic. [00:26:00] They're also trying to figure out a way how to get that moxie young 26-year-old throughout their life to go
Isaac: Yeah.
Dan: the Waldorf. So the Ritz Carltons and they use, um. Bonvoy is a huge part of that as a moat,
Isaac: right.
Dan: isn't the only story. There's so much other work and design and creativity and branding that has to keep that stickiness and keep them aligned.
What are you seeing as far as the brands and in relation to that generational rebellion and how they're trying to keep people kind of locked in?
Isaac: Yeah, I think it's, it's, it is through the loyalty programs always has been, we've always been trying that from every company I've ever worked with is you want some kind of stickiness, right? But it again, uh, and you, and you want them to continue to go progress the end their career or their life with you, right?
That's the name of the game. You want 'em to start with you and stay with you until they no longer travel, which, uh, or, You know, can no longer travel. And so I think that [00:27:00] will continue,
Dan: that out with, with my dad. He had a bajillion at Marriott
Isaac: right.
Dan: then when he passed away, I found out that those were not transferrable at death.
Isaac: Well, he had to, you should have transferred him to you before. It's like,
Dan: I, I didn't, I didn't think
Isaac: but I think it's really interesting. I think the lifestyle, the, the change in hotels mimics the change in, uh, mostly males, not females, but if you remember your dad and probably dressed very differently than you are dressed today.
And, and his lifestyle was very different than yours.
among the first
Well, yeah.
Dan: Yeah.
Isaac: Oh, and I'm a bourbon guy, so I'm not, but again, what was interesting about is that we were, it was a massive change happening even to the way males were dressing, acting, uh, the ho, I mean, if you remember Metrosexuals, all that kind of idea where you didn't have to be, again, males were very cookie cutter, especially if you were in the corporate world.
You wore the white shirt with the blue pants and the blue jacket, right? It was very just cookie cutter as you can be. [00:28:00] Everyone was exactly alike. So individualities, which I think has happened and in, in the business world, again, women have always been more individualistic than males were at the time, especially even that era.
But now I think that's. Started the whole design phase. And again, same thing with going back to the Bonvoy stuff and or any kind of reward program, it is trying to acknowledge that we know you're different and you have different needs. So here's a hotel that meets your specific needs or what you want.
If you want a hotel that caters to, uh, fitness, we have that for you because we know that's important to you. So this gym is not gonna be a bay, it's gonna be multiple bays where you have, You know, techno, gym equipment, stuff that you want versus someone else, another brand. No, they're, they're there for the bar.
They wanna like gimme a good bar. And so I think it's just, it's just trying to find that, yes, there's probably way too many brands right now, but the idea is like a shirt, there's gonna be lots of shirts and not everyone wants the shirt that I'm [00:29:00] wearing or the one you're wearing. They want this other one.
So.
Dan: So also at Alice, there was an interesting conversation with, uh, Ryan Diggins, uh, he helped develop the Ramble Hotel in Denver, or, I mean, he developed it, not help, he just did another project called, oh my God, I forget the name in Savannah. But really they lead with the f and B and really the B
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Dan: actually walk me through this one too, 'cause I've also heard that one of the reasons why the big brands went after the Kimptons and the graduates and all this was not only, okay, you can build a brand or you can acquire a [00:30:00] brand, right?
Isaac: It's easier.
Dan: but also hotels historically have outperformed the, for the investors, right? Because more money is dropping to the bottom line because they're not paying that. to whatever percent vig on being a part of that brand and the brand network, is that still holding up? But on the flip side of that coin, it's harder to get financing.
It might be harder to attract other kinds of capital. What, what are your, what are you
Isaac: That's, that's a a that's difficult to say. General in generalities, obviously, independent brands that are luxury are very, that are just, that are more unique. Yes. They can have a better, they can not necessarily, it's not a given. Right. Uh, most independent brands, if you really look at the most, and especially in the, what I look at in my world, they're old.
They're very large and they're, uh, they've passed their useful life essentially. Most of the stock in that is, uh, is just older hotels whose [00:31:00] life, who've gone through their lifecycle. But then you have those gems and those are the ones, the true independence that can continue to just be, uh, and they just, they're gems, right?
They're, they're unique hotels, And so they probably do, but they, but by being unique, they also have different cost structures and things. So it just really depends because it just depends on their service levels, because that's gonna expect impact. Your GOP and your EBITDA
Dan: Mm.
Isaac: is what, You know, what are you providing?
And I think what Kimpton did well back in the day was recognizing, going back to your f and b comments, is they realized that hoteliers were great at running hotels, but not great at running restaurants.
Dan: Yeah.
Isaac: Yeah. What if we just have a restaurant division and we hire people who know what they're doing in this space?
And that way we can create a standalone restaurant that just happens to be in the same building as the hotel. And I think that was really genius at the time. Uh, You know, 'cause no one, uh, and the, and the design spaces that were not to take care of [00:32:00] guests per se, but there was, it was a restaurant that needed to stand on its own two feet and deliver revenues and profitability versus just be a space, You know, within a
Dan: And they,
Isaac: hotel.
Dan: they did do that really well. 'cause they also, that engaged those hotels with the local community.
Also at Alice, I saw SAML and I can't remember his last name from Think Food Group with Jose Andreas,
and he was talking about the f and b experiences that they're doing in hotels. He was talking about these six pillars.
I was like, I thought like, you want two or three pillars, but, but no, he explained the six pillars of theirs are from the ent. I'm gonna mess it up. The entrance lobby, the restaurant inside the, the, the food court, the room service, the rooftop bar, the restaurant, somewhere else. And a lot of people. If you do the f and b correctly, from what I've been hearing, is it can actually drive a DR and it can drive performance in the hotel,
but it requires a whole different focus set of [00:33:00] values and commitment. But what's interesting is the hotels that really lean into the f and b, it doesn't affect It It sometimes f and B is a drag on valuation
and it's also, it's a hard, it's a hard way to attract capital because the traditional way of looking at things is through rooms revenue.
Explain that to everyone.
Isaac: Yeah, I mean, again, that's, that's been the metric and we probably were the forefront on, on getting that metric instilled. So, again, remember when we started, STR started in about 87. People were there was really hard, it was very difficult to benchmark a hotel to your performance. And so, and that's when we created a, started getting the data and created the RevPAR metric and then RGI and everything we know as today, but it still is only looking at room's revenue.
Most of the majority of our, of our data set is still that room's revenue piece.
But we do know that again, and we do have a p and l within, within STR we do also track p and l. Just [00:34:00] harder data to get to people don't, are not as willing to give us.
Dan: Yeah,
Isaac: they don't wanna give us that data.
Dan: don't you, I, I didn't real, so, STR came up with the RevPAR metric.
Isaac: Yes. Well, uh, I don't know if we came up, well, we certainly popularized it. I've gotta find out. But we were, we definitely were on the forefront in terms of the benchmarking of it. Maybe RevPAR was in the vernacular, but there was no way to benchmark against anyone else. So I'm gonna find out if we were
Dan: that. That would be
Isaac: Yeah,
Dan: to claim it. I
Isaac: yeah.
You know, I,
Dan: what was that one? It's like, uh oh, from Austin Powers. He is like, You know, I invented the question
Isaac: yeah, I, I need to find out. I'll have to ask. So, You know, STR was started by a guy named Randy Smith.
Dan: Hmm.
Isaac: so who was seated a little bit by Holiday incorporation at the time. So he had been with Laal Horowitz, the, uh, big, uh, big, big, those accounting firms back then before it implo.
Dan: now it's like the big four
Isaac: Yeah,
Dan: right?
Isaac: I gotta find out if that's, that's an [00:35:00] interesting one.
But I think again, talking about what you're saying and Jose Andres is really interesting 'cause we're ha we're seeing it happen in this market. They just took over all the food outlets at the western, uh, excuse me, the W Nashville. They're putting three concepts in that, in that hotel. And one, three opened.
Dan: already crushing it.
Isaac: Yeah. And now they have three concepts. One is an Mediterranean, I dunno how you say it. The other one is gonna be Bar Mar. I know that one. 'cause I've actually eaten with the one in Chicago and then they're doing something else. Another name that I dunno.
Dan: doing six, right? Because they're probably gonna do the room service as well. Right.
Isaac: I think they're, yeah. So it's an amazing, uh, I that's, and yes, and that becomes a draw for that hotel that hotel was doing.
Well that's gonna be a big draw, especially if you're a Jose, Jose Andres fan. And, uh, I think it's just important and going, I think it is important. The f and b is just, it's another element to the grandeur. Of past times. I go back to when you went to a hotel. Back in the day, it was most hotels [00:36:00] served before the road warrior served the wealthy, right?
And so they always had great dining facilities and things, and that was an experience. And I think we kind of lost that. We lost the experiential piece that people want, especially post COVID now. Everyone wants experiences. And again, everyone wants to say, wants to tell someone. You know, you always wanna tell a story.
It's like, I saw this great hotel and the food, the bar was incredible. You know?
Dan: But okay. And I understand that hotels are hotels and they're not billboards, right? So they do deserve their own analytics and metrics. But in the
Isaac: Do
Dan: those independent hotels, or even not independent, but like luxury and lifestyle that really invest in the food and beverage experience, do you think that that RevPAR the overweight of that RevPAR analytic, do you,
Isaac: you think it.
Dan: a disservice and it almost disincentivize, disincentivizes a lot of hotels to inve invest more heavily in that?
Isaac: no, I don't think it, this, I don't think so. I think it just, it's, it [00:37:00] becomes part of the identity of that hotel and is also a driver of that revenue stream for that hotel. So I think it actually helps it a lot. If you are a hotel that has something very unique, I do believe that gives you a premium in those room rates and will also be a premium for your demand versus the marketplace because you are all, because essentially the entire package is an experience.
Now it's just not a room. So if you go in as a customer that you're seeking, you, Hey, I'm gonna go to Nashville, I'm gonna go on Broadway, but I also don't wanna just be, You know, on Broadway, uh, pizzas and burgers, whatever, at a Broadway bar. I want something nicer and I do wanna do a spa. I wanna do all this.
That's where that all comes in. It all, it's holistic. I think that's the difference. It's, it's more of a holistic view of that asset versus just a singular view. And that's.
Dan: but I, from just things that I've heard where they do have the successful f and b, I think that if it's for instance [00:38:00] at the Ramble that you have to walk through the bar to check in and it's such a great, it's death and co. It's a great bar experience, but their rates were kind of are, were or are scratching at the Four Seasons, which is like right down the street and it's because of that. Bar experience, but I feel like if you were to look at the valuation of that hotel versus the Four Seasons, the four seasons is worth more because, You know, I, I guess it's 'cause they're not like factoring in the f and b experiences heavily at, at the ramble.
Isaac: should be. Yeah. Again, it really depends. I've been to the, I forgot that was the name of the hotel I've been there. I was just there at death and go in November. So it was like, God, I've just been there. Um, And so, but I love that bar. Um, it's a cool bar. And so, but, um, it just depends. I think that's education and you have to, again, if you're gonna, if you're doing the valuation, you have to understand the asset.
I think that's just like, Hey, what is, what is the driver of this asset? And sometimes we just get stuck in our old ways and including us data people, and [00:39:00] we just, You know, maybe we're, maybe they just didn't see the holistic picture of how important Death Co is and that bar to the hotel experience. And so it,
Dan: know if they were looking to.
Isaac: I don't.
Dan: event or whatever, but it, it just seems to me like it should be equally weighted. 'cause I, You know, I've talked to other general managers and they say if oh, if I wanna make my hotel more profitable, I get rid of the f and b. And that's kind of like the old school way of thinking.
But, and maybe it's true, You know, the market
Isaac: It,
Dan: is the market. Right. It, it is, it knows things that we all don't know. O
Isaac: it just depends, You know, as an asset owner, it just really depends
Dan: hmm.
Isaac: the margins, depending on that food service, the margin on that food service can be considerable. Right? Every drink can be a lot more, but you have to make sure that it's delivering. Otherwise, yeah, it could be, it could also be a, a, a, uh, a drain on profitability,
Dan: But it
Isaac: something that,
Dan: contribute 30 to 50% in many cases to the, to the revenue of the property. And I assume that that's equally, um, drops down [00:40:00] to the profitability as well.
Isaac: and the hard part with restaurants, as we all know, is just the, the type of service level. Yeah. If you're, You know, if you're gonna do an 11 Madison Park type menu every night Yeah. That's, I mean, there's a lot of cost involved there, right. Because it's so, it's just. It's an that is incredible, but there's a tremendous amount of costs and you have to have, You know, number of covers you're gonna need.
It has to be full all the time or it's gonna be difficult to pen that one.
Dan: Yeah.
Isaac: if you do something a little different that is still, uh, has a service level that is appropriate for the type of property and, but you can keep all those costs at bay and, You know, just normal costs, not the extraordinary cost here, I would think it's very profitable.
Again, right now, different times we got food cost rising, we have labor cost rising, so there are so many factors.
Dan: great. And, and I actually, I wanna get into the, uh, those are different times. I want to get into the time where we're that we're in now, because Okay. crisis. [00:41:00] There was so much new inventory coming on board up until 2008. And then I think what happened with COVID, one of the reasons why we were able to recover so quickly after COVID was 'cause there just wasn't a ton of new inventory built Right AF because everyone was still stung from the financial crisis. Is there? Yes. Does that make sense?
Isaac: No, it, that's, in fact I'm looking at it right now. Right. The year after I decided to pull up data, 'cause I'm trying to, yeah, it, we were running about in December, in the full year ending 2019, supply was up 1.8 and then in 22 was up 1.7. So some of that was prop. So it was not much of a change and because some properties got, uh, postponed, but a lot, everything that already was
Dan: But
Isaac: in.
Dan: go back to 2005, six, there was a ton of new inventory coming on right.
Isaac: Well, it was in a 2%. Yeah, it was actually, no, in 2005 we were, uh, let's say 2007. 1.2. 2008. 2.3,
Dan: [00:42:00] Oh
Isaac: and two two th So yeah, it was again, but you also had a smaller base. It's, again, it's just different. It's just different. Uh,
Dan: why like we, why I love having you on because I hear all these narratives and then the data counteracts the narratives that we often hear.
Isaac: yeah.
Dan: But re, okay, so said something earlier about the, like the in the rise of the luxury and lifestyle and the repositioning to of older hotels into the lifestyle and jing them up a bit. Um, but there are many older hotels that are long in the tooth that really need some TLC.
Isaac: Go ahead.
Dan: And one of the things that I've noticed over my career is that like the stock market, if you look at it over 50 years, it goes up and into the right. When it comes down, that ties into a credit cycle, Where everything's tightening up. where do you, I'm talking to some friends in the multifamily space and [00:43:00] they're saying we're either approaching the bottom at the bottom or just coming out of this current credit cycle. are you out there?
Isaac: Wow, that's a great question. You know, it, I go, I go, I don't know if I can do anything general. I think it just depends, right? So if you're in downtown Nashville, multifamily there, you can get a deal right now. And again, a deal's all relative because for some people a deal at $2,000 is not a deal, right?
It's a $2,000 a month for an apartment and for a small apartment. But we're seeing a glut here. Other markets don't have that, You know, it's a little better. So we are, I think, from what I read on the national side, um, with my CoStar colleagues of the apartments that I think we are, uh, we've already reached the bottom and that we are returning.
I think that's what I read. I hope I got that right for my CoStar colleagues who are watching this or listening. But I think it is turning the corner. But it just depends on the, like everything else, it depends on the market because like this market [00:44:00] is just seeing a, uh, lots of building, but this is also a market that is.
Truly coming of age and developing. So it will, it's probably the right play. You just have to wait a little bit to get that higher occupancy numbers from the multifamily.
Dan: Great. Well, the, where I'm trying to go with this is, I've been talking about this a lot because I just find as far as renovations, repositioning, hotel trading, it's been stuck. And I think what, what I'm saying is, is there's this lake of hotel transactions and capital expenditures that is held back by a dam of high interest rates. uncertainty, high labor cost, um, high construction costs, all of these things. But at some point, because I know you being a road warrior, me being a road, I'm going some places there's no, there's nowhere available and I'm staying somewhere for like 500, $600 a night it's a piece of garbage. And [00:45:00] at some point it needs to freshen up.
It, You know, it's getting long in the tooth. Where do you see that dam chipping away in the short term?
Isaac: I don't see that in the short term. Right. And especially now we have such greater uncertainty that just occurred six days ago, seven days ago. So I don't see it. But going back, just because. You're, but individuals, I think as you said, at some point you have to reinvest, assuming you can do so, because if not, you will lose the market.
So if you get tired, if you've loved this hotel and now you're just like, God, not even the iron is, it's burning my clothes 'cause it's old scorched or, or the bed sucks, you're just not gonna stay there. So then it becomes a, a, a death spiral, right? Because if you're not gonna invest money, then that product, then you're gonna lose your demand.
And then you're in the worst possible. Now you have, you, you, you, you need the CapEx but you don't have even the revenues coming in to support anything at this point. So I think that's a [00:46:00] very, uh, precarious situation to be in. You. I mean, there's little things you can do always to get a property freshened up, and I understand it's very difficult, uh, especially from the interest rate environment, the capital.
I mean, it's, it's difficult, but you can't.
Dan: I also heard, and again, this could be a narrative that I heard that's incorrect, but I also heard that in COID, a lot of the hotel owners that were branded properties were allowed to deplete their CapEx reserves.
Isaac: Right.
Dan: You know, once that's happened and you've distributed and you're. Profitable.
Isaac: Yeah.
Dan: to kind of want to rebuild that. And the banks are being flexible on those covenants that were there before. And hotels require more CapEx than most other assets or
Isaac: Right.
Dan: So like
Isaac: They're gonna have,
Dan: on that?
Isaac: yeah, I think, I mean, we've gotta go back to getting back to where we were and putting those reserves in place. You have to, because the product will deteriorate. There's just no doubt. Right. We know, You know, you're in the, you're in the, in that [00:47:00] business at some point, and if it deteriorates to a point, then you lose the revenue stream.
So then you sell the asset and someone else has put the money in, and maybe that's the, that's your, you, the owner's exit strategy. It's like, I'm gonna milk this for all it's worth. Then I'll sell it to someone who will put the money back in.
Dan: Yeah.
Isaac: And maybe again, that's, that's a strategy, right? That is a true strategy,
Dan: Because one, one of the other things I noticed is in 2019, this is just before COVID, everything was running really well. Everything was great. And I, I remember saying this, and this actually helped me pivot my business, but felt, and I could be wrong here again, which is fine, but I felt that one of the da, one of the decision points that I had in 2019 was, we're 10 years into that seven year cycle. So know what's going on. And this is just wild. And then COVID happens in 2020 and I feel like I just don't, I don't know if we skipped a cycle or, or something happened or when it's coming back, but I feel like the [00:48:00] amount of money that flooded into hospitality and the amount, the war chests, because everyone thought hospitality, oh, no one's gonna travel during COVID.
Like this is gonna be easy. Acquisition targets. I heard that there was a trillion dollars of dry capital. Waiting or dry powder waiting to acquire. But because so much money flooded through PPP interest rates going to zero, everything else, like it just, the, the capitalism wasn't, didn't get to do its thing the capital didn't recycle. Did you, do you notice that or is that like a, is that just a narrative that is not backed by, up by data?
Isaac: I don't know if it's backed up by data. So I don't know. 'cause I don't, I don't know. I really, that one I could say I don't know. But again, what I do is observe and there's still plenty of capital going into hotels, both in terms of refurbishment and new builds. And again, I may be very jaded because I live in Nashville part-time, but I also have my home in Atlanta.
And I still think, I still see movement there [00:49:00] and properties being built or renovated and changed.
Dan: Hmm.
Isaac: I, and it just really depends. And it, and then a lot of the owners, I know I, because being part of IHG for 20 years, I was also, uh, very, um, uh, associated with the, uh, owners association. And I just know these folks and they're, I mean, most of 'em are really hospitality people at heart, and they just take a lot of pride in their products and making sure that they're, 'cause they also see the competitive advantage of a good versus bad product.
So I think it's getting there. I, I don't know. Yeah. I don't know. I just don't know. But I, what I see is that I still see lots of development and I still see, and I'm watching the data. Yeah. We're, it's less so, yeah. Again, I'll go back to, if you look at the pipeline, you're seeing a, a, a smaller number of projects actually under construction.
But you gotta remember, a lot of those projects that are not in the construction, um, are more of your road warrior hotels. Right. They're kind of, And so the people are holding on those at this point because it makes [00:50:00] sense and to
Dan: if you were. you were an architecture or design firm, or a project management firm, um, or a general contractor that specializes in hosp developing hospitality, um, and you're trying to read the tea leaves and look at where we are in the cycle and seeing that dam and seeing that lake that's held back, where's a good place aside from just looking locally?
'cause a lot of these firms work on projects
Isaac: Yeah. Around the world.
Dan: and internationally. What's a good place to get better? You know, there's a thousand points of light. There's a whole mosaic of information. But for those people who are kind of thinking about, do I restructure, do I let some people go? Do I start hiring again?
Like, where do they go and look for that data? Or how can they kind of piece that story together in that little segment of the CapEx world in, in the hospitality world?
Isaac: Wow. That's a great question, Dan. Um, I, You know, I go back [00:51:00] to, everything begins in this industry with demand. So you have to watch the demand trends.
Dan: And going back to your podcast that just
Isaac: Yeah.
Dan: you said demand turned a corner,
Isaac: Yeah. And so.
Dan: a blip or we don't know?
Isaac: We don't know yet. So again, three, uh, two months is two or three months is not a real trend yet, but it sure does look like it's a trend. But we just dunno.
But I think you go back to looking at that because that's gonna be your decision point. Whether, uh, travel is gonna see that growth that it saw, uh, pre COVID. And so I think that's gonna be, and, and, and then that's also a good barometer if we see more people traveling. That also indicates that the economy is strengthening or something's changed in perceptions, uh, real dollars, whatever.
That something has truly changed because when people start traveling again and, and staying in hotels, that normally is a very positive sign economic side. That would also probably indicate that would probably be very correlated with, uh, interest rates starting to come back [00:52:00] down, things of that sort, uh, inflation hopefully coming back down.
So they, I would, I mean, for me, that's, that's how I look at the data and that's how I think about life and, and decision points. Because if people are out there, then yeah, things are starting to turn better and that should be good for the capital markets as well, that, You know, it should, I mean.
Dan: You know, you li you'll read the newspapers, you listen to the financial news, you watch the tv, and everyone has a guess on what the Fed is gonna do, raise lower, and I think that that's probably has the biggest effect on development. And it just, nobody knows, like you
Isaac: But the
Dan: results don't predict the future.
But I
Isaac: Right,
Dan: like, if I were to just take, if I were to look at the tea leaves, I would be like, okay, I think we're about to enter an easing cycle.
Isaac: of course we are, because the probabilities are higher that that's gonna happen because it's interest rates have been high for so long.
Dan: Yeah.
Isaac: just from a probability standpoint, yes. And inflation has been coming down and that's a big driver of interest rates, or at [00:53:00] least for the Fed's decisions on interest rates.
Right. So assuming that could, again, I just look at probabilities. There's a higher probability of interest rates gonna come down than there is, than there are going up. Right. That just makes sense. I mean, that's not, that's not, that's not like super.
Dan: and that signals the start of a new credit cycle.
Isaac: exactly.
Dan: cool.
Isaac: but also the other thing I would go back to is I, I, I kind of go back to when I was young. We lived in an environment with high interest rates and high inflation and people were developing. So it's just mindset that you can't develop and you can't do anything. 'cause interest rates are high and inflation's high.
Well, yeah, people did. There was a whole life, there was a whole lifetime people did that. And
Dan: But I think what's different from now, from like 83, 82, and again, I was really little then. I just think that so much money. Has injected itself into the economy via quantitative easing, printing of money, uh, buying of, of,
Isaac: could,
Dan: of, of [00:54:00] securities, et cetera, et cetera. That there's just so much capital out there right now.
It hasn't, like a lot of real asset owners haven't been forced to capitulate. Yeah.
Isaac: could be. I agree. Could be. I mean, that's prob, that's a very. That makes sense.
Dan: Hmm.
Isaac: But I still think, again, I always, there's always a way to make a buck and you just gotta find a way to make the buck. And again, you, and again, uh, You know, I try not to read, I have to obviously read, so I read the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times and things, and you gotta just be careful not to let it cloud your, what You know here is probably the right decision.
And I always go back to that, that people will make their, You know, they will make calculated decisions based on what they know.
Dan: but I also find that when I read the Wall Street Journal and, and, and when I'm paying attention to real estate and specifically hospitality, when they write those articles every two months or three months, like six months behind,
Isaac: Of course, because they're using, we're all using stale data essentially, [00:55:00] right? Because even the government stuff is a few weeks behind. Everything's somewhat stale. But again, this, again, I would. I always, data is data. So even if it's stale, a trend is a trend. And I always remind people about that. It's like, remember, yes, it may be a a month behind, but you start seeing a trend and that's regardless.
Then you can start hypothesizing if the trend will continue and what it means for you and what decisions you're gonna make should this continues.
Dan: Yeah,
Isaac: don't let, even though they may be a little stale, don't let that be a detert to, uh, your decision. Yeah, and again, and I also laugh that, You know, no decision is a decision.
People kind of say, if you decide not to do anything, well you made a decision not to do anything. That's a decision. And people don't think about that. They always say, well, I haven't decided yet. Well, no, you did. You just haven't acknowledged that your no decision is a decision.
Dan: Yeah. Um, okay, so demand is turning the corner.
Isaac: It's.
Dan: If you were to put on [00:56:00] your forecasting glasses and look at, um, the next two years, let's just say, what do you see? If you were in Las Vegas, I'm not holding you to it, but if
Isaac: Oh, no, I know,
Dan: you were a gambling man, uh, what do you see happening over the next two to three years?
Isaac: You know, would've said it, it, it differs. So in January I would've said more of the same. So, and that's what I truly believed. Right now I'm on the fence that we could actually see something much better than we have. But to what extent, it's the degree that I don't know yet, You know? So I do think our forecast as it stands right now, assuming that the, um, that the Middle East crisis that we're in doesn't spill over into our economy.
I think my forecast or our forecast is, uh, maybe too low.
Dan: Mm.
Isaac: But again, that's a big, but, but there's again, with this Middle East crisis stuff, I don't know. Uh, with the spillover again, we've seen gas [00:57:00] prices rise, which again, it's an inflationary thing. Uh, we could see other impacts which could then, uh, impact pocket books, perceptions, whatever people.
Dan: Yeah.
Isaac: so, but I, You know, again, January a a as of last or a week ago, I would've said last Friday, had we had this call last Friday, I would've been much more optimistic because I had just finished our podcast. I had just finished all the analysis, but didn't know what was gonna happen on Saturday.
Dan: Yeah.
Isaac: And so that, and that, that's the thing.
I mean, we just don't know. But I, I, again, I see, I still see people traveling again. As long as nothing as long, the safety and security of travel is not impacted. Then we probably have a good year.
Dan: Yeah.
Isaac: But the moment safety and security of travel. Is compromised in any way. All bets are off. We saw people be afraid to travel for a variety of reasons.
So,
Dan: Yeah,
Isaac: and then just one last thought I had. Again, assuming this crisis continues for a little bit, it could be, and this sounds bad, beneficial for, uh, domestic travel because, uh, people [00:58:00] get worried about going overseas. And again, Americans have been going overseas in record numbers since, uh, COVID if they stay home, that could help hotels here.
Amen. And locations. But again, that's a wait and see too. We don't know if people's perceptions of overseas travel will change.
Dan: Well, I, I think my takeaway from this conversation, Isaac, and I'd love to have you back on periodically to just have these conversations or even I, I'll definitely put a link to your podcast or maybe I, I could even, I've done this before where I take a podcast and drop it through my channels just so people can hear it, so we can talk about that later. But just to give people these snapshots, because everyone has their perceptions. Everyone has their own thoughts and feelings and their life experience, and I don't want to discount that. But the data helps give a framework. That's why I love rules of thumb. Um, rules of thumb are not, You know, I've always been an entrepreneur that is bootstrapping and figuring things out, and it's nice when I come across a rule of thumb because oftentimes I just [00:59:00] don't have a framework for what's normal, right?
So, I appreciate this conversation. It helped me think differently about where we are and also think differently about some of my experiences in the past. So, thank you.
Isaac: Don't. You're welcome. But I also think about, when I think about data, one of the things, key tenet that in my mind is I, when I work with data, is to triangulate things. So again, I do use lots of data, right? I am always in the data, uh, and I try to bring different data sources. So I don't limit myself to STR data, even though it's my primary data source.
But again, observation and talking to people, relationships really, really, really matter.
Dan: Mm.
Isaac: It really is important to talk to people and understand their frame of mind or what they know or even what they're thinking, because then it helps us as analysts. It's like, God, I didn't even think about that. Let me look into that.
And so I do welcome, uh, for your listeners and, uh, viewers who are on this podcast to drop me a note at any time. And you can find me on LinkedIn. There's Isaac Zo at [01:00:00] LinkedIn, you'll find me. SDR. There's not many. I, there is no Isaac at SDR other than me. And so I think, um, but again, but it's really important to, to not.
Don't get fixated on a single number. I guess that's the thing. Never get fixated, always be open to other numbers. And then the thing through is, wait a minute, this number said that, that number said that. How do I, how do I bridge that? And I always, and we bridge lots of data here. That's what I do. Try to try to figure it out.
It's like, okay, how does this all connect
Dan: I
Isaac: and what does it mean?
Dan: Well, we'll definitely put all of that contact information in the show notes. And again, thank you for
helping me reexamine how I look at the world, and it's so, and thank you Adrian, for making me sit at the table with Isaac so that we, we had this happen. So great to get to know you better and everyone, that's why it's really important you just heard him say, it's all relationships. Get out there, talk to people, put your phone down. Say hey.
Isaac: Yeah. Look up every once in a while.
Dan: Yeah. So thank you Isaac. We'll
Isaac: You [01:01:00] welcome?
Dan: uh, we'll, we'll drop all that stuff at. We'll talk about how to get. People listening to your podcast as well. Um, but thank you to all of our listeners. Without you, I wouldn't have been at Alice. I wouldn't have had Adrian drag me to the table and sit with Isaac and, and be here to share all this information with you and some of my vi uh, uh, experiences incorrect, backed by data.
So I appreciate that and I'm always happy to be a Guinea pig for all of you, if you think someone could benefit from this conversation and, and learn about the state of where we are, where we're going and how to read the tea leaves, please pass it along to them. We grow a lot by word of mouth. We appreciate you.
And don't forget, like, subscribe and tune in next time.