The Vance Crowe Podcast is a thought-provoking and engaging show where Vance Crowe, a former Director of Millennial Engagement for Monsanto, and X-World Banker, interviews a variety of experts and thought leaders from diverse fields.
Vance prompts his guests to think about their work in novel ways, exploring how their expertise applies to regular people and sharing stories and experiences.
The podcast covers a wide range of topics, including agriculture, technology, social issues, and more. It aims to provide listeners with new perspectives and insights into the world around them.
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Welcome to the Ag tribes report, a breakdown of the top stories affecting the culture of agriculture with your host, Vance Crowe, the report begins in 321, let's begin.
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Welcome to the Ag tribes Report. I'm your host, Vance Crowe, each week I bring a representative of one of the many ag tribes that represents US and Canadian agriculture. So we can talk about the culture of agriculture. This week, I am joined by the one and only Sean Haney. Haney is a big figure in Canadian agricultural media. He is the founder of Real agriculture, which has grown from a hobby blog into a leading source of agricultural news and information for Canadian farmers and ranchers. Through real agriculture, Sean provides content on ag policy, agronomics, current events and farm management via their website, radio shows and podcast. Sean hosts real ag radio broadcasts across North America on rural radio channel 147, on Sirius XM daily at 430 Eastern Sean, welcome to the Ag tribes report. You. You.
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It's good to see you too. This week, we have some stories about the choices that Trump is making for his cabinet and how it's affecting Canada in particular, what's going to go on with the renewable fuel industry. We also have a story about how are things going to happen with us and trade, economic war with potentially, with China. And also, we're going to talk about one of the stories that Sean wrote himself. What is on the chopping block as farmers sharpen their pencils for the 2025 budget? We're going to do all that. Talk about the Bitcoin land price report, find out what Sean's Peter Thiel paradox is, and ask him his worthy adversary. And we're going to do this all live and in 30 minutes. So we better get started. First up is our headline from real agriculture Sean's outlet, from Biden's tax credit to Trump's cabinet picks. Renewable Fuels face an uncertain future. The renewable fuel industry is anxiously waiting for policy details from both the outgoing Biden and incoming Trump administration. Key issues include the criteria for the 40 5z tax credit, which remains undefined, potentially affecting 2025 industry outlook, Trump's nominee for leading the Environmental Protection Agency, New York Congressman Lee Zeldin has a history of opposing renewable fuel legislation, while his other nominee for interior secretary, who will chair the new National Energy Council, North Dakota Governor Doug Burton, could support this. So the industry hopes to align with Trump's goals. And this is going to be very interesting. Sean wrote an article where they pointed out the concern over policies, possibly restricting foreign feed stock use, impacting trade with Canada. So Sean, you talked with Jeff Cooper, the President and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association, and he was concerned about the lack of clarity. What do you have to say there? I
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think everybody has concerned with the lack of clarity. Like you think back to commodity classic March of this past year. We were supposed to, you know, that's kind of thing when we're first supposed to get some details. What was going on with with 40 5z and climate, smart agriculture. And you know what call what practices qualify for the 40 5z tax credit. And you know, we're going to have an inauguration here soon. And you got to kind of wonder, and Cooper alludes to this in my discussion with them, is, does the Biden administration just sort of park this in the trees and just let the Trump administration, you know, deal with it, which probably pushes it back even further, to be honest, with the events and farmers are going to go to the field and maybe not have some of the details, which I think is provide some some some uncertainty. What, what I think really is, when it comes down to biofuel policy, I think there's a lot of people.
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And Trump in the first administration, very transactional over emphasis on trade deficits and not enough on, on, I guess maybe some of the nuances of how trade works in some of those in some of those cases, like who's a good customer and who's not, China is different. Japan is different. So Japan is kind of like Canada. Japan's a very consistent purchaser of US goods focused on quality. It's a stable customer. China and India are not that. I used to laugh in the first Trump administration when it was like, Yeah, we're gonna go negotiate a free trade deal with India. It's like, oh, yeah, good luck. Trade with China is difficult. Let me introduce you to their neighbor, India. Um, the policies and the tactics that you use on a country like China, I think, do a real disservice to the US economy if you apply the same thing to a country like Canada or Britain or or Australia for for example. So I think it's maybe the appointment of lutnic is lost on a lot of Canadians, but I think they should be more thinking about it from a farming perspective, because the we've got some pro terror people, they're going to be talking in the trade department.
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In my world, people were throwing around lunick As the head of Treasury, hoping that this Bitcoin bull the one of the guys that's probably one of the biggest Bitcoin bulls in the world would be that, and I didn't realize all of his statements on tariffs, until you start watching that. I think, from the US perspective, people are hoping that Trump can continue to get us goods sold around the world, trying to make it as cheaply like trying to bring more jobs back. One of the things that I think happened that made him win this election in particular, was they went to the rust belt and said, See all this hollowing out. This was the Democrats fault. And the Democrats didn't come in and say they were going to do anything. They said, We're going to do more of the same. Well, tariffs are a really good way to get the rust belt to say, well, maybe we'll get more manufacturing. Maybe we'll be able to come back. Do you think this is just a bargaining chip in order to bring other people to the table to give the best deal possible? Or do you think no tariffs might actually be real? Wow,
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I think it's sort of the Trump playbook, right? So when I, when I, when I heard him say that he was going to play 100% tariff on everything coming out of Mexico, I think we've sort of entered the area of hyperbole. Okay, that would be one again, from an agriculture perspective, Mexico is a very important trading partner on agricultural exports. So it again, agriculture gets kind of sort of an afterthought sometimes on, on some of these, on some of these policies, I think it's thrown out there, and it's the other country has to negotiate it away that that's, that's kind of the the Trump playbook. For sure, they're going to be really careful, though, because there, there are some things that the US cannot produce. Sure, steel, aluminum, absolutely, you're trying to bring those jobs back. Think about potash. For example, you apply a 10 or 20% tax or a tariff on potash that's coming out of Saskatchewan in Canada, for example, 86% of the pots that is used the United States comes out of the province of Saskatchewan. And to just you can't pick up a potion mine that was that deposits been there for three, 60 million years, and move it to Idaho, because that's where you want to create jobs. So, you know, some in some applications, this works, and in other applications it doesn't, and it actually gives Canada, in this example, a little bit of a bargaining chip on some other matters. Well,
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we will see how it goes. The only way I would have ever been even open to tariffs was if he said the magic words, will get rid of income tax, which I am very interested in doing. I don't know if it's real, but what an exciting time to be alive. Moving on to the third story tonight. This is a story you wrote. I was very interested to hear it. This is from real agriculture. What's on the chopping block as farmers sharpen pencils for the 2025 budget as part of the October Canadian farmer Sentiment Index, real agri studies asked farmers about where they plan to focus cost cutting measures. There are some clear no Go's, such as selling off land, but equipment spending and some product use is likely to get cut first. The largest focus on cost saving based on farmers saying definitely or likely we're spending on equipment using more generic products and to reduce some of the crop products, foliar sprays and biologicals. The most definite cost saving area in equipment was spending, with 24% of respondents saying they were definitely going to do that. Sean, what is going on in the mind of farmers? Are they always like this? Or is this something new from other years? Yeah, I
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think this is an issue that's in Canada and the US, right? So I think we can sort of extrapolate this data across border. There's a lot of concern about farm profitability in 2524 is has not been a real banner. You. Depending on where you are, and there are pockets that did okay, and there there are pockets that are of real concern, livestock has been much better than people that are on broad acre or row crop farming. For for sure, I think what I took out of Vance is that when you think about core agronomics, you think about fertilizer, you think about crop protection products, people, people realize they can't eliminate some things like you my my dad as a saying, you know, save a nickel to spend $1 like you can. You can look at, maybe, where you're applying the fertilizer. You can look at, you know, geez, you know, looking maybe a little closer that soil test. You know, every year, no matter what the soil test says we go with this much phosphorus, we go with this much nitrogen. Maybe this year, we should maybe look at a little bit closer, but farmers knowing that if they cut some of that stuff too much, they're going to end up hurting themselves long term. And in some farmers had told us in the open end responses that I this is, you know, prices are lower. I get a I got to yield myself out of this. That's the philosophy that some have used, but not all. If you and then if you get out of that core agronomics, they're looking at using more generics, as opposed to some of the brands that makes sense. You can understand that, especially when it comes to things like pre burn off, I'm sure, and things like that, and also some of the fringe things, maybe, like you said, like the biologicals, maybe some of the the humics, the some of the things that are nice to haves. Or maybe they haven't necessarily proven themselves out to have that return on the farm on a consistent basis for or maybe they're just sort of trying them out for the first time. Those are things that may get pushed a little bit more to the side, or more probable to get pushed to the side. The one I've seen in Canada, in our in our research and in the US through farm journals, egg economist barometer is farmers cutting back on spending and equipment. And the Association of equipment manufacturers, their monthly flash report shows it like hardcore that we're in a word, a tight time for OEMs, if you're interested in economics and supply and demand, supply is there. Demand is in decline, and that means prices are going to have to come down to bring farmers back into the market, and after a pretty heavy period, you know, you John Deere and AGCO, and case, they had some pretty lofty years through the pandemic, when when supplies were tight, auctions were going crazy on used equipment, that's that demand is backed off, and we're seeing farmers are gonna have a little bit of tighter wallets on their span now. But the thing is, Vance farmer like I had to tell some companies, some clients like you, do realize farmers are gonna plant a crop. I think we sort of overshot it a little bit on some of the negativity. I really hope that 25 though, works out better than some people think it's going. People think it's going to at this
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point. Well, last week, I had mentioned that I had a friend or two that had mentioned to me they might give up some of their rented acres. After doing that, I heard from other farmers that didn't want to say it publicly, but said they were going to give up some of their rented acres because they thought, hey, if I'm going to be taking a loss here. I don't want to, or I'm not going to, you know, if I don't think that corn or soybean prices are coming back up, do you hear that? Or is that just anecdotal?
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So I'm sure that's you got to be really committed, though, that we're in a period of three to five years of poor environment, right? Because, let's just say that 25 is not great, but 26 also, there's some sort of, like, there's a profitability improvement. You may not get that land back. So I think a lot of people are pushed in this area of like, how good is my balance sheet? You know, can I sustain maybe a loss on those acres for one or two years, for the fact that I want to be able to have it when this thing turns when this thing turns around, I think this is an opportunity for people that have strong free cash flow, strong balance sheet, as some of those people that maybe have weaker financials have to give up that some of that rented land, there's gonna be people right in there to scoop it up, because it's opportunity when times are tight,
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all right. Well, we'll see how things play out. I did want to do one final story, which is on the rail strikes during the fall and summer. There was a whole lot of conversation about the giant rail strikes that were going on in Canada. This preceded the port strike that almost happened in the US, but we were relying on your reporting. Once that got resolved, people just kind of walked away from it. Are the trains back running? Is everything caught up? What's going on with strikes in Canada?
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Yeah, on the on the trains? Yes, they are running. They the government forced them into binding arbitration. We have, we had a port strike at Montreal and the Port of Vancouver as well. La this earlier this month, the government has forced binding arbitration in that case, as as well, the unions are suing the government, saying, you know, they're they're misapplying some some legislation, but that could take a long time to work itself out. But those so that binding arbitration is underway, trains are moving. Ports are back working. But Canada, similar to the. Has post pandemic has been in this rolling sort of period of, there's this, you know, there's a strike here. There's a strike there. Obviously unions trying to show some of their muscle. I'm no union person. I would not be often talked poorly about some of the unions that think they missed. They've sort of served their purpose. In some cases they in the coal mining days in the early 1900s Absolutely, in some cases, now, I'm not totally a fan of some of the disruption that is caused, especially when it comes to pushing back against things like automation and robotics, especially in cases where it shows that you can improve the safety of the worker, and to still not allow some of that automation because you're scared that a job may disappear. I don't know about that. So Canada's been the land of the strike. Canada Post, our national rail or our national postal service, is on strike now too, and we're in that building, and I'm in Lethbridge, Alberta, and we're actually in the Canada Post building on the second floor, so I see the picketers going around and around the building, and it's just like, what nonsense.
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What a treat it would be if our postal workers went on strike and didn't deliver mail. It would be a fantastic thing for us. All right, let's move on with it. Thank you for doing these stories with us. If you are listening and during the next week, you know a story that you think we should cover on the Ag tribes report. Send it to me on x at Vance Crowe, moving on to the Bitcoin land price report. Wow. Another exciting week. This has been absolutely thrilling. So Bitcoin last week was $87,273 At press time, and now one week later, it is $98,471 which is an 8% increase. I know that all Bitcoiners were sitting there hitting refresh, refresh, refresh, seeing if it would go over that $100,000 mark if we turn that over into Canadian dollars. Right now, one bitcoin is worth 137,000 Canadian dollars. Let's talk about land prices. Though, Sean, you live in Lethbridge County, what does an acre of good land cost there?
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I irrigated land like 15,000 an acre, I think upwards of 20, but I'm say 15,000 Canadian an acre.
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Okay, so if we were to now take that and put it into Bitcoin, that means that your land is about point one, one acres per Bitcoin. And that means, in other words, one bitcoin would buy you about nine acres of farmland in in Lethbridge. How does that sit with you? You know, that's
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a, I wish I had bought it a long time ago. I so I've never, I've never done it. This is like what everybody says probably now is they wish they would have, and I think, you know, I was talking to somebody about this yesterday. It's, you know, it's plus 90,000 about right now. Is that correct? Yeah,
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98,000 Yeah.
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98 now cheaper. Like, it's now the time to go long, like, almost, like, I would wonder, like, you'd be questioning, like, it's a good time to buy, like, a put by, maybe take, you know, there's on the derivatives market, on Bitcoin, maybe buy a put and maybe, if there's a little bit of a downside, and if it goes higher, you just lose your premium lot with the fact it's finite. And I heard you say to another guest that it's kind of like land, and so that just tells me, if it's finite, you got to think it's there's some more run in this from a bull perspective, but it's, it's something that I've never put money in. Clearly, I wish I would have,
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yeah, I mean, I think that when people are looking at it and they say, I wish I would have gotten it earlier. I I'm probably too late now. I think the absolute wildest, maybe dumbest thing that somebody could do would be to short Bitcoin. The the it is going to go up. You just have to have patience. It's $100,000 or almost $100,000 now, but people want this. We're watching the state of Texas decide that they're talking about doing a strategic reserve. Trump did actually confirm today that the US is going to move forward with a Bitcoin strategic reserve. China yesterday announced that they were no longer making it illegal for individuals to hold it. Countries are taking note. And you know, it's not just going to be the Charles Schwab investment accounts, which just announced today that they were going to start trading in the ETF. You're going to start watching nations that say, Hey, our currency has not done anything. We're stuck in these terrible currency regimes. So it is going to go up and it's better, like,
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at some point, isn't it? Isn't it just, isn't it too it's it's too expensive, isn't it overvalued at some point where people can't. I really well,
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I think that it's like, the one bitcoin is like, a weird thing to think about, because you don't need to own one. If you were to spend, right now a single dollar, I think you'd get 100,000 Satoshis, which is the smallest unit of account for Bitcoin. And we can really break it down into small amounts. And at some point owning one bitcoin would be like, Well, why don't you own a billion dollars? Or why don't a million dollars? What you want is some portion of it. But if you don't own any bitcoin, you are essentially shorting Bitcoin. So I would say, at least buy some. The key is just to buy a little bit and get in the game, just to learn how it works.
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Yeah, apparently it's, I'm I don't mean to be short, but I guess you put it that way. I guess I am. I saw that video where there was a guy, like, years ago, that used a bunch of Bitcoin to buy a $40 pizza, and that $40 is now worth, like, 900 million. Yeah, I would feel like a real,
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you know, I think I bought a a whiteboard for something like, I don't know, point three Bitcoin or something like that. And you think about how much money that would be now, it's just, it's just the way that it is, right? You get, you can't look back like that. You it's, it's the it's the future. All right, I would highly recommend people try that out. Just go by a little bit and get it off of an exchange. And the learning process itself will make you say, Oh, I get this a little bit better. Okay, now we're going to my favorite part of the show. This is the Peter Thiel teal paradox, where I asked Sean, what is one thing that you believe that almost no one you know agrees with you on? Okay,
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so this is something I had to really think about. This. This is the challenging part of the show. It's easier to talk about news. This is something I did not believe years ago, but through reading and thinking, noted a lot I believe, and I know many Canadians do not believe this, but I believe that it's can't Confederation will break up. And I I believe that, and I wouldn't even consider myself like a hardcore like Alberta separatist, or anything like that. I just believe it's going to happen. And I think it'll actually Alberta will, Alberta, which we often describe as the Texas of Canada. Alberta will, will lead that charge in in that, you know, if you think back to the history of Canada. Canada became a country because of a national railway from coast to coast, basically. And a big John, a MacDonald was the prime minister at the time. And when he wasn't really, really drunk, he was leading the country, he was known to be a bit of an alcoholic. He He didn't want the national railway to dip into the United States like the Liberal Party did. And he had the foresight and the vision for if Canada is going to be a country that, you know, that's railway had to stay within the borders of Canada. And so I've done lots of reading on that. I just, I just believe there's a fundamental lack of understanding amongst Canadians in terms of federal and provincial jurisdictions on who's responsible for what. And I think if some if you had a charisma, you know, charismatic leader in a province like Alberta, you could sort of do what happened in the UK, where, you know, David Cameron made the foolish decision, let's just have a vote. And we know how that worked out. So I do believe, and maybe in my lifetime, Confederation will break up in Canada.
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I was a few years ago, was at the Alberta cattle feeders Association meeting, and Peter zeihan was there as well, and he stood up and said, You know, I propose that Alberta become the 51st State of the United States. And I was sitting there thinking he was going to get booed, and instead, there were, like, cheers that erupted. And that was the first time that I understood that Canada felt that way. And then I had a chance to go up to Canada last year, and I was in Saskatchewan, and I heard actual ministers saying, you know, like, if Toronto won't give us freedom, like we're going to take it. We're not going to put up with this. They take everything from us. They want all of our raw goods. They won't let us export our own oil. It makes a lot of sense to me, but you are one of the very, very few Canadian influencers that's willing to stand up and say that this is a pretty strong Peter Thiel paradox. Well,
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there you go. I made you get a high rating. I think it is controversial, and I think a lot of Canadians are watching this, will probably say, like, Oh, you have flown the coupe. But I think there's challenges with it, like, especially from Alberta perspective, being landlocked, not having access to Tidewater, especially as an exported nation, if it was to become its own country, would be a huge, massive challenge. Obviously, trade agreements, I I'm not sure I would go as far. I've read that Zion talking about that. Um, I'm not sure it would be a foregone conclusion that Alberta would say, hey, we need to join, join the United States, although there is some similar thinking, like, there's not a lot of difference in the thinking between Montana and Alberta, to be honest with you. Um. Um, but I think Canada's got real troubles. Long term. There's real mental blocks. Okay? There's two physical barriers in Canada that create mental barriers. One is the Rocky Mountains. British Columbia is very isolated. Okay, I was there yesterday. I was there this morning. It's very isolated because the Rocky Mountains beautiful province. But then you also have the Canadian Shield that separates Manitoba and Western Canada from central and eastern Canada, and those physical barriers really create this mental block for people to really feel like this together country, other than when there's a hockey game and some and something like that. So I I hope it doesn't happen. I'm not cheering for it, like I said. I'm not, you know, leading the Alberta separatist movement, but I think there's real challenges for Canada going forward, long term. Well,
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I'm going to let the podcast run long today, because this is such an exciting conversation. One thing I can tell you is that Bitcoin actually can empower this right now, you guys are not allowed to export your oil, but you are able to, if you could, find a way to burn what you are doing right there in Alberta and then just convert it into Bitcoin. It makes energy be digital. You get to actually extract the value of that energy out and sell it into the financial markets. And I think it would be a way to be able to to overcome the fact that that, you know, Toronto doesn't allow you to build pipelines. All right, I am going to give you a nine one, our official highest score on the on the Peter Thiel paradox. I have to give you a little bit of bias, because I love this answer. I think it's absolutely fantastic. Good for you. Okay, let's go to the final segment. This is something that I find is very difficult for you Canadians, which is to name a worthy adversary that is who is somebody that you respect but completely disagree with. This
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was hard. I'm not gonna lie to you. I actually, I'll tell you, I put it into chat GPT, and I asked chat GPT if it knew who my nemesis was, it gave the funniest answer. Sean is like, has these strong opinions on a number of different topics, but he's really a facilitator that brings groups of opposing views together. So there's that um, kind of I, what came to mind after thinking about this a lot is I, one of my big annoyances in life is when people get trapped in their ecosystems. And I know this is something that you know you fundamentally believe in two Vance because you love conflict and people with different thoughts and challenging your views on stuff. But my what I I don't like when people don't move across the news dial like when I'm getting my information, I will stop at, you know, the most left of radio stations I will or TV stations. I will go through the center, and I'll go always way right to get an idea just what are people saying. I think it allows you to understand better. So I my my nemesis. I was who I picked are two people, and they're the same that they serve the same function. One is Sean Hannity, and other is Rachel Maddow, because they trap people in the echo chamber, and they make it so that the anybody with an opposing view or doesn't see it exactly the way that they do is the enemy. There's no room for compromise. It's, it's a, it's a very all or none scenario. And I think that serves, that serves the United States very, very poorly, because it's created this, and I'm blaming it all on them, but just the what they represent. It's just force people to other sides, and it really doesn't allow people to really connect with each other and understand and I do watch both programs from time to time, and I find I'm doing it less and less because it's, it's, it just doesn't really serve much of a purpose at this point.
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Yeah, I, you know, it's so hard to listen to things that you don't agree with, and then you have the challenge of, like, do I not agree with them because they're just not very sophisticated arguments, or do I not agree with them because, like, you know, they have something to say that's worth listening to. And I think that's, that's a difficult thing for me. I think in that vein, I listen to a podcast called multi polarity, which is an international relations podcast, and I just fundamentally disagree with a lot of the conclusions that the that the host does, but he's talking about thing. There's no arguing. This guy knows people and characters and places and things that are absolutely worth the the time to listen to, and then then you find out, like, well, do I not agree with him? Because he's actually smarter than me, and that's what I love. So I'm always looking for those so outside of your own content, what is a good podcast you do like listening to?
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Oh, so I listen to way too much about college football. I. I Vance. I have an unhealthy college football addiction, so I'm a huge Arizona State fan. We got a big game against BYU this weekend, trying to, you know, maybe win the big 12 championship. But I like, I'm so into it, man, that if Rhys Davis tomorrow got like, a really bad sickness and couldn't do game day on Saturday. I think I could easily slip in there, because I like, I am legit, like I am so into it. It's my wife thinks I'm nuts. My oldest son, who goes to the University of Mary in Bismarck in North Dakota, he is kind of like me. We like all we do is talk about college football. So that is my unhealthy podcast habit. Well,
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that is fascinating that a Canadian would have become an Arizona State fan. We'll have to discuss this more later. We're going to wrap up. But Sean, I want to thank you for coming on. Where can people find out more about real agriculture and listen to you, yeah,
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for sure. So real agriculture.com is our website. We also get real agriculture's YouTube channel has a bunch of video and podcast content there. And like you said at the opening, our show on rural radio, 147 is at 430 Eastern every weekday. Or they do actually do a replay at seven in the morning. I'm a market day report on RFD TV every day at 10 Central. There's lots of ways to find us doing more. I'm actually doing more and more American content all the time too, because there's lots of cross border stuff. So it's, yeah, check us out. I'm on x as well. Well,
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I was so honored that you could find time. You are the absolute top of the food chain when it comes to Canadian agriculture broadcast, and you built something from scratch. And I admire and respect you, and I'm really honored you would come on. So thank you so much. Well, thanks for
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having me. This is great. Keep up the great work and definitely tuning in. This is I like, I like the challenging of thoughts. It's, it's awesome.
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We also want to thank our sponsors, farm test.ag where you can test out the different pesticides, crop protection tools, systems you're using, and get scientifically verified results so that that way, you don't have to rely on marketers to be able to tell you whether it's working or not. And legacy interviews, this is where I sit down with your loved ones to record their life stories, so that future generations have a way of knowing who you were to be able to capture that spark. Next Thursday, we are going to be doing the podcast. Despite the fact that it is Thanksgiving, I will find a quiet place when we're at my parents house with the kids running around, and we will be unveiling a new video that my creative director went to Canada to shoot, which was showing a family that did a legacy interview, watching them watch their interview and then talking about it afterwards. I'm really excited about it. It's a piece of art that it'll be fun to share. Until then, make sure you feel free to disagree. You
Transcribed by https://otter.ai