A Podcast for Coaches

I set aside an episode I'd spent a week on after an adversarial read exposed a weakness in my own arguments. What came out of that is a three-question tool for evaluating claims — mine, yours, your clients', and the ones on every sales page you'll read this week. In this episode I run two of my own claims through it and show you where they hold and where they don't.
  • [00:00] The episode I've been working on for a week — over 3,000 words, and I stopped short of publishing it
  • [00:57] Why I wanted a closer look: I want this material to be foundational, which means it has to be reliable
  • [01:26] I know how close I am to my own theories, so I don't know where my blind spots are
  • [01:50] A reader who already agrees with me nods along. A reader who doesn't might find big holes
  • [02:12] What I asked Claude to do: not content, not flow, not style — strength and defensibility
  • [02:39] It found gaping holes in about thirty seconds, and a discernment tool started to emerge from the conversation
  • [03:24] Where this tool applies: your own thinking, content you consume, sales pages, and conversations with clients — not to put them on trial, but to help them see the claims they're making
  • [03:57] The tool: What is the claim being made? What happens if the claim is wrong? Can we find out if it's wrong?
  • [04:39] Story one: my high school best friend texted me after five years of no contact, and I felt a surge of good feeling
  • [05:04] Story two: a fellow coach running Facebook ads to consultations, spending far more than is coming back
Question one: what is the claim?
  • [05:47] The claim I actually made about my friend — relationships persist in spite of long dormancy — and why it's easy to confirm
  • [06:13] The next rung up: dormant relationships could become coaching engagements. I can confirm the warm feeling. I can't confirm it converts
  • [07:08] A claim about affinity quietly gets swapped for a claim about a transaction — and you'll meet this move constantly in the wild
  • [07:25] "He referred me a client, therefore dormant relationships are your best lead source" — a sample size of one driving strategy, with no mention of the other forty-nine
  • [08:14] The absurd version, three short steps from a story that felt completely reasonable
  • [08:45] Why a relatable story and a relatable emotion can make an absurd claim feel believable
  • [09:01] Every one of those claims could be true. The failure isn't dishonesty — it's the fit between the facts and what I claimed from them
  • [09:37] The second story, where I got onto shaky ground
  • [10:04] I never said you can't grow a coaching practice through paid ads. I implied it, and asked you to state it for me
  • [10:29] Why this is the same move as the earnings claims I criticized a few weeks ago — just the mathematical reverse
  • [11:17] An old sales adage from my own selling days: if you say it, the prospect can challenge it; if they say it, it's true
  • [11:41] "So? You tell me." I was completely guilty of this
  • [12:26] If I had stated my claim, I would have had to defend my claim
  • [12:31] Stating the claim is often the whole job
Question two: what happens if the claim is wrong?
  • [13:21] If the friend story were entirely fabricated, essentially nothing changes for you or for me
  • [13:47] If I'm wrong about paid ads, many of you discard a potentially profitable growth strategy
  • [14:14] The stakes, not the intent, are what separate these two
  • [14:43] I'm asking my listener to eat the cost of my being wrong — which is why I've got to clean up the claim
Question three: can we find out if it's wrong?
  • [15:18] For the friend claim, trivially — you yourselves are the evidence, which is why it needs no support
  • [15:56] My first job with the ads claim: admit I don't know how representative that one coach is
  • [16:29] Acknowledging that weakens the claim and strengthens the ethics — it pulls the cost of being wrong back onto me
  • [17:08] I struggle to believe advertising works for one-on-one practices, and I don't have enough data to stand behind that
  • [17:40] What it would take to actually know: survey a hundred coaches and find out
  • [18:02] What a strong version of my claim would sound like with real numbers behind it
  • [18:53] Going further still — accounting for the cases where it did work, and what those coaches had in play
  • [19:30] Until I've done that work: this is my bias, supported by one story
  • [19:45] What I wish the people making earnings claims would publish — robust data we could analyze, discuss, and debate
  • [20:21] All I can offer today is an opinion with a small handful of anecdotes. You have to do your own research
The tool, restated
  • [20:31] Three questions for a client conversation, a spouse, a sales page, or a purchase decision
  • [20:56] It usually takes about thirty seconds — and at minimum it tells you what the next step would be
  • [21:20] If nothing else, it short-circuits hasty decisions built on weak claims
Work with me
Office Hours is a community for coaches building sustainable one-on-one practices — officehourswithmark.com

Bookkeeping
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What is A Podcast for Coaches?

A Podcast for Coaches shines a light on one of the most elegant, underrated business models in the world: one-on-one coaching. Mark Butler hosts the show, and he's been a coach and advisor to every kind of online business you can think of, having helped businesses earning everything from $0 to $25,000,000+. Although Mark believes every online business model has merit, he worries one-on-one coaching is viewed as a stepping-stone business for people who aren't ready or able to scale. But it's not true, and A Podcast for Coaches sets out to show people--through clear teaching and rich, current stories of successful coaches who love their business--that one-on-one coaching is one of the most gratifying and lowest "hassle-per-dollar" businesses in the world.

Speaker: Hey, this is Mark Butler
and you're listening to a podcast for

coaches This is kind of a meta episode.

Here's what's going on.

Over the last week or so, I've been
working on another podcast episode

in which I use an extended metaphor
that I like, to propose what I

think is my strongest hypothesis
for how to grow, fill, and sustain

a one-on-one coaching practice.

I've worked really hard on the episode.

I've got quite a few hours into it.

It's now sitting at over 3,000 words,
which is probably a 30 to 40-minute

episode, but in my opinion, it is
substantial and, and dense and useful.

However, when I sat down today to
record and to publish it, I had

this sense that before I did that,
I wanted to give it a closer look.

The reason I wanna give it a
closer look is I want this episode

to become foundational to what
I share with my fellow coaches.

And because I want it to be
foundational, I want it to be

useful, I want it to be reliable.

I want a person who buys into, the
hypothesis that I present in that episode

to make good use of their time and
their energy and their money as they go

to fill or to sustain their practice.

And I know how close I am to my own
theories and philosophy, so I don't know

where my blind spots are As I reviewed
the episode myself, it occurred to me

that a person who already agrees with
me in principle would probably nod along

happily to the metaphor I present, the
stories I share, the arguments I make,

and the way I defend those arguments.

But a more adversarial reader, a
person who fundamentally disagrees

with me in principle, might find big
holes in the case I'm trying to make.

So I paused on publishing that episode.

I set it aside.

It's good, it's strong, and I look
forward to publishing it, but it needs

some cleanup and some strengthening.

What I did is I took the script
that I'd written, I went over to

Claude, which is my favorite large
language model, and I said, "I want

you to be an adversarial reader.

I don't want you to evaluate this
script for content or flow or style.

I want you to evaluate it for
strength and defensibility.

Poke holes in my arguments,
challenge my assumptions."

And of course, AI being what it is,
it took about thirty seconds, and it

didn't completely shred the episode,
but it did point out some gaping

holes in my arguments As I talked
with it about its concerns and its

challenges, I realized that what was
emerging was quite a powerful tool.

It's a discernment tool.

It's an evaluation tool.

And so I paused on that episode, and
I'm creating this episode, and in

this episode, I wanna give you what
I think is a pretty simple but pretty

powerful coaching tool, and it's one
that you can apply to conversations

that you have with yourself, with
your loved ones, with your friends.

It applies to content
that you consume online.

It applies to persuasive material that you
read, like sales pages and emails, and I

think it even applies to interactions that
you have with your clients because you'll

be able to run claims that your clients
are making, the stories that they're

telling through this little tool, not to
put them on trial but to help them see

more clearly the claims they're making and
the potential consequences of those claims

So this is the tool.

It's three questions Question
one: What is the claim being made?

Two, what happens if the claim is wrong?

Three, can we find out if it's wrong?

I wanna show you this tool in
practice, and we're going to apply

it to two different claims that I
made in the podcast episode that

I'm setting aside for the moment,

And it will show you sort of the weak
versions of the claims I made and the

strong versions of the claims I made.

But the way we're gonna do it is we're
gonna ask each of these questions and then

filter each story through the question.

As background, let me
give you the two stories.

Story number one, my high school best
friend texted me a few days ago, and

in spite of the fact that I haven't
talked to him in over five years, and

we haven't been in each other's lives in
any significant way for almost 30 years,

when I saw that text, I had this nice
surge of good feeling and good emotion.

That's the story

Second story.

The other day I was talking with a fellow
coach, and the coach was telling me that

her current strategy is to advertise on
Facebook in hopes of having people who

see those ads sign up for a consultation,
and then in that consultation, she

invites them to become a client.

She told me, as we talked about her
strategy, that she's currently spending

a lot more on ads than is ever coming
back in the form of client fees.

In other words, her current strategy is
not financially profitable Now let's take

those two stories and run them through our
little coaching tool, our three questions.

Question number one: What is the claim?

We'll start with my high
school best friend story.

I'll give you the actual claim that I
made and talk about its strength, and

then I'll give you examples of how that
claim could run away from me and become

weak and hard to defend and almost absurd.

First claim, relationships
persist in spite of long dormancy.

That was the claim I made in the episode.

My friend with whom I have not interacted
in a long time texts me, "I feel good."

So the claim I'm making is
relationships persist even

when we disconnect for a while.

It's fine.

It's easily confirmed against our
own life experience within about two

seconds But here's the next level
of that claim that you might make.

So this is why relationships you
haven't touched in five years or more

could become coaching engagements.

Yeah, I can confirm the original
warm feeling, but I can't confirm

that it's going to convert in
any consistent or reliable way.

So a claim about the affinity that I
feel for my friend and that he feels

for me gets substituted by a claim
about some potential transaction And

because of the way I'm presenting
it to you today, you might think,

"Well, yeah, of course that's silly."

But you'll find in podcasts and in
sales pages and in conversations

with your clients that people make
this kind of claim all the time.

Another claim I could have made is,
"He referred me a client two weeks

later, therefore dormant relationships
are your best lead source."

That didn't happen, by the way,
but we're just giving examples.

Well, that's a case where if he had given
me a referral, now we would have a sample

size of one, and that sample size of
one would be driving our strategy, and

there's no acknowledgment of the fact
that I might have 50 of these dormant

relationships and that the other 49
of them wouldn't give me a referral.

So claiming that dormant relationships
are,, the best lead source is silly.

But it's the kind of claim that you will
run across in the coaching industry.

It can even get to the absurd, where
I could tell that story about the good

feelings between me and my friend,
and then I could say, "So stop wasting

your time with any content creation.

Stop wasting your time with
networking or anything like that.

Make a list of all your best
friends from high school and

ask them to become your
client it's absurd.

So we start with a story that feels
good and is easy to confirm, and

we're just a few short steps away
from tipping over into something

where you think that's ridiculous.

But sometimes when the ridiculous claim
is paired with a totally relatable

story and a totally relatable emotion

Suddenly we find ourselves believing
it and questioning ourselves in spite

of the absurdity Now, I'm happy to
say in the episode that I will be

publishing soon, the only claim I
made is that the good feelings that

exist in our relationships can persist
through long periods of dormancy

The thing to be aware of with
this type of claim is that each of

the claims I made could be true.

So the failure here
isn't strict dishonesty.

It's the fit between the actual
facts of the story as I presented

them and the claims I'm making about
those facts there's a therefore

in each case that starts to break
down quickly as it gets away from

the basic facts of the experience

Let's talk about my other story,
and let's ask ourselves, what

is the claim that was made?

Well, this is where I got on the
shaky ground, and I got onto shaky

ground because I tell the story of
this coach who is running ads on

Facebook, generating consultations
through those ads, having those

consultations, and then getting clients.

I did not, at any point in this
episode, make the claim that-

You can't grow a coaching
practice through paid ads.

What I did instead was imply that,
and this is where the ethics gets

stickier This was a tough moment
for me as I had to admit to myself

that I had made an unstated claim,
meaning I was asking the listener to

state my claim for me And believe it.

A few weeks ago, I did an episode about
earnings claims, and in that episode,

I said something like, "It's ethically
questionable to ask someone to pay you

$30,000 for a training program, and
then to put a testimonial alongside that

request where it says something like,
'I participated in this program, and I

made hundreds of thousands of dollars.'"

Because it's the same unstated claim
that's being made It just happens to

be the sort of mathematical reverse,
meaning I'm claiming that what the

person is doing won't make money,
but I'm asking you to state it.

The other coach is claiming that if
you pay them $30,000, you'll make

hundreds of thousands, but they aren't
stating it, they're implying it.

There's an old sales adage.

When I was in sales over 20 years ago,
we had this thing that we said, and it

was, "If you say it as the salesperson,
then the prospect can challenge it.

But if they say it, it's true."

So one of your best strategies for selling
people is to get them to say the thing

that they might otherwise object to.

And I was completely guilty
of that in this story.

"Well, you know, she's paying
for ads and it's not profitable."

"So?

You tell me."

And this other coach is saying, "Well,
they paid me 30 grand for coaching,

and they made hundreds of thousands."

"So?

You tell me."

Ethically dubious.

The way to make that ethical is
to say She told me this story, and

I drew the conclusion that running
paid ads to a consultation flow is

an unprofitable approach to growing
a one-on-one coaching practice.

If I had stated my claim, then
I would have to defend my claim

So the takeaway here is sometimes
Stating the claim is the whole job

Much of what can go wrong in our
decision-making processes is when we

are working from an implied claim and
trusting it without actually asking the

person who's making the implication to
state it clearly and then to present

their evidence and to defend it.

Now, in my case, I could do that, and
we'll talk about that in a second.

So let's go to question number two,
and let's run each of my claims

through question number two, which is:
What happens if the claim is wrong?

With my first claim that the good feelings
of relationships persist through periods

of dormancy, what happens if it's wrong?

Well, nothing really
happens if it's wrong.

If my friend's story were completely
fabricated, if I just made it up,

then the implications for you and
for me are essentially nothing.

I mean, almost all of us would hear
that story and say, "Yeah, I have

a relationship where we've been
disconnected for a while, but I bet

if we talked again, I bet we would
both be happy to be talking, and,

we still care about each other."

So even if the claim I made were
a total fabrication, who cares?

It doesn't really matter.

But what about the other story?

I've implied that running paid ads to a
consultation process is an unprofitable

way to grow a coaching practice.

Well, if I'm wrong, then many of
you, my listeners, would discard a

potentially profitable growth strategy.

So the stakes are much higher.

Not only was I a little bit ethically
loose and weak by implying the claim

instead of stating it outright, the stakes
are higher because if you were to fill in

the gaps for me and say, "Well, obviously
Mark believes that it's unprofitable to

run paid ads to consultations, therefore
I'm not going to do it because I trust him

And that's potentially costly to you

And in this case

I'm asking my listener to eat
the cost of my being wrong

In the case of good feelings persisting
through periods of relationship

dormancy, doesn't matter who eats the
cost because there's basically no cost.

Doesn't really matter.

But in the case where I'm claiming
that advertising on Facebook is

fundamentally unprofitable If you buy
into that and I'm wrong, then you eat

the cost, and I don't feel good about
that, so I've gotta clean up my claim

Now let's look at question three.

Question three is can we find
out if the claim is wrong?

My first claim being that affinity
and trust can persist through periods

of dormancy in a relationship,
can we find out if it's wrong?

Well, yeah It's pretty trivial to
find out whether or not it's wrong, so

it doesn't really need much support.

The audience, you
yourselves, are the evidence.

And you're thinking to yourself right
now like, "Oh, yeah, that former coworker

I had, I should reach out to him.

He's such a good dude."

It, it's easy to find out whether
that's wrong or right But with my

other claim, the implied claim that
advertising on Facebook is fundamentally

unprofitable, you can also disprove that

You can find out if it's wrong or I
can find out if it's wrong Ethically,

I think my first job is to say, "By the
way, I don't know how representative

this person I talked to is."

She's one person who's at the moment
not finding her advertising campaigns

profitable, but she might figure
out how to make them profitable, and

there might be 100 or 1,000 other
coaches who have made advertising

campaigns on Facebook profitable in
their one-on-one coaching practice

It weakens my claim by acknowledging the
possibility that there are many who have

done the thing that I'm claiming won't
work, but it strengthens the ethics.

It pulls some of the cost of being wrong
off the listener back onto me, because

now I'm incurring some credibility cost
and some argument cost But reducing the

likely cost that the listener will face
if they say, "Well, I do trust Mark."

He's acknowledging that, in
fact, lots of people could be

profitably advertising on Facebook

So maybe I should do my own research.

Now, I realize you know to do your own
research anyway, but I think it's my job

as a person who wants to be an ethical
coach and an ethical content creator

to acknowledge, hey, this is one story.

And let me just state outright that
although I personally struggle to

believe that advertising is a profitable
way to grow a one-on-one coaching

practice, I don't have enough data
to really stand behind that claim

Now, if I wanted to go even further,
I could talk to a hundred coaches, or

I could find a way to survey a hundred
coaches, and I could find out of

those hundred coaches, how many have
attempted to generate consultations

and clients through paid ad strategies,
and then I could also find out to what

degree that's working or not working.

It would still be an imperfect
claim, but it would be a much

stronger claim if I could say, "I
gathered data from a hundred coaches.

Seventy-one of them have tried growing
their coaching practice through paid ads.

Of those seventy-one, sixty-three
told me they were never able to

make a paid ad strategy work in
their one-on-one coaching practice.

Or forty-nine of them reached
break even and profitability

in an average of X months or X
thousand dollars spent on ads."

The data is there, but if I wanna
make the claim, and if I wanna really

make it strong, I could go get the
data and present it in my argument

If I actually did the work
of gathering that data,

I might even be able to make the
case that even where it did work,

there were other significant
factors or costs or skills in play.

So I might be able to say, "Yeah, 49
people were able to profitably advertise

on Facebook, but as I did my research,
I found that 41 of those people

did X or Y or Z to make that work."

So this, so it is a case where
I could make the claim And I

could even probably find the data
that would support my opinion

But until I've done that, I have
to honestly disclaim the whole

thing and say, " This is my bias.

I have one story that supports my bias.

That is what it is.

You need to do your own research going
back to the earnings claim episode from

a few weeks ago, I wish that people who
are implying that paying 10 and 20 and

$30,000 will meaningfully contribute to
earning hundreds of thousands of dollars,

I wish that they would present robust
data sets that we could analyze, discuss,

and debate so we could decide how much
of a causal or a correlated relationship

there is between these high-ticket
coaching experiences and masterminds and

increased income in the participants.

But based on what I'm telling you today,
all I can present it as is an opinion with

a small handful of anecdotes that support
it You have to do your own research.

You have to find out whether that's true.

So that's our tool, folks.

Our tool when we're talking to a client
or a spouse or evaluating a sales page,

deciding whether to purchase something,
is to dig into these three questions.

What claim is being made?

What happens if it's wrong?

And could I find out if it's wrong?

It's actually not an extremely
tedious or time-consuming process

to apply those three questions to
almost any claim or idea or statement

that we encounter in the wild.

Takes 30 seconds usually.

At the very least, it takes 30 seconds
for us to discover what would be the next

step in really answering that question

But if nothing else, it should short
circuit any hasty actions or decisions

we might make based on weak claims

And with that, I will
talk to you next time