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Technology's daily show (formerly the Technology Brothers Podcast). Streaming live on X and YouTube from 11 - 2 PM PST Monday - Friday. Available on X, Apple, Spotify, and YouTube.
We are live from Silicon Valley. We're hanging out with some absolute dogs. We have some breaking news out of Sequoia Capital. They have a new set of bosses, new top dogs.
Speaker 2:Top dog. What? A new gen generation of Sequoia Stewards.
Speaker 1:I think Roloff probably just recently got into racing cars, and he's just like, I need to go full time.
Speaker 2:I need to go all in this. I
Speaker 1:gotta I gotta
Speaker 2:I found my real calling. Bro went out and said venture capital is return free risk and then handed over the keys. The timing is interesting.
Speaker 1:Anthropic is the new king of API sales, boatload of new financials and projections below. Anthropic this summer hiked its most optimistic growth forecast by roughly 13% to 28% over the next three years and is projecting as much as 70,000,000,000 in revenue in 2028.
Speaker 2:Yeah. The notable thing here is they're projecting cash flow.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Profitable in 2027.
Speaker 2:17,000,000,000 in cash flow in 2028. Not something you see from AI players outside of NVIDIA.
Speaker 1:Remember the whole Dario idea of, like, each model individually is cash flow positive, but you keep having to scale up by 10 x?
Speaker 2:To actually be cash flow positive at the company level, I have to imagine they would have to not do the next training.
Speaker 1:OpenAI's plan, spend a 115,000,000,000 to then become profitable in 2030. Anthropics plan is spent 6,000,000,000 to then become profitable in 2027. We'll be curious to see what works best. In 2019, people saying NVIDIA stock is extremely overvalued. This was pre the Ethereum pump, I believe, and NVIDIA's market cap was a $100,000,000,000.
Speaker 1:Was at 100,000,000,000, then at 500,000,000,000 in 2021. And then in 2025, we now see that the market cap is 5,000,000,000,000. And this was
Speaker 2:pretty surreal to see this image surface. I'm surprised Jensen did this and allowed himself to be photographed doing it. But this was 06/04/2024. Yeah. He was signing a woman's shirt at a conference and NVIDIA is up 85%.
Speaker 2:Historically, these have been
Speaker 1:Yeah, it's crazy.
Speaker 2:Top signals, but here we are.
Speaker 1:Jensen has always been a rock star. It's not like he put on the jacket as at the top. Was born in it.
Speaker 2:Korean fried chicken stocks were pumping. Wait. I am financially ruined short selling Korean fried chicken companies. I have lost everything, and I'm not sure how to continue. That seems 4 to $172,000 short selling Korean fried chicken companies.
Speaker 2:My idea was with the declining Korean population and the recent trend towards healthier eating and vegan diets, there's an opportunity here. Everything is gone.
Speaker 1:There's some debate over how impactful the ChatGPT launch has been on, job displacement? We keep going back and forth on this. I mean, they certainly want it to get there, but it, it, that's not how people use it just yet. Like for the most part, it is like,
Speaker 2:I think the notable, I think, I think something notable about like when I think of the ChatGPT, like jobs displacement debate and discourse. Yeah. Like I look at our company, which is like despite a bunch of new tools popping up, we still need to hire video editors. We still want to hire writers. There's like a bunch of these different roles that this this chart to me has always been about interest rates going through the roof.
Speaker 2:That that that's what it just happened to almost perfectly coincide with the chat GPT line. If look at the growth of the S and P 500, like almost all the growth is driven by AI.
Speaker 1:If only there were some major event a year before that was important and affected interest rates and hiring trends. And so there's, like, the the cultural trends around the what what Elon did at x that that just kind of, like, woke a lot of CEOs up to this idea that they could run leaner. The interest rate is huge if AI isn't displacing. But if CEOs think that AI is gonna displace people or AI will be in five years, well, a lot of the reason why you hire someone isn't because you need the you need the job done today. It's because, like
Speaker 2:I think that every CEO, even if they don't have an AI narrative, wants an AI narrative. So if you have to do layoffs, why not say, hey. We're getting a bunch of efficiency out of AI tools, and that's why we're doing layoffs.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Michael Burry has just filed his 13F eleven days early. He has never done this before. Massive put, he's going short Palantir and Nvidia.
Speaker 2:I think in general, people continuously misunderstand the sort of, like, notional value versus the size of Yeah. The actual
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. Let Burry cook.
Speaker 2:I wonder if Burry wish he played himself in the big short
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:So that all the meme if if he knew all the meme images would be shared hundreds, thousands of times a day. So that's more on Palantir earnings. Q three, they did 1,180,000,000.00 of revenue, up 63% year over year. 883,000,000 of US revenue, up 77% year over year. 397 US commercial revenue up 121% year over year.
Speaker 2:Beating like this and then trading down eight percent the next day is shows that the market's a little shaky.
Speaker 1:The Denver based firm sells software to centralize, manage, and analyze large amounts of data. They're hiring high schoolers now. They're just like college is pointless. We'll just hire you straight out of high school.
Speaker 2:This is rare enough to be highlighted and actually good Financial Times article on the state of the AI race between The US and China. He put race in quotes. One, the fact that for a general purpose technology such as AI, long term advantage often comes down to how widely and deeply technology spread across society. And China has advantages here as the article notes since they're unarguably better at orchestrating society wide transformation as that's all they've been doing for the past three decades. They got some reps in.
Speaker 1:The the data point that I have not seen that I would like to see is is actual consumption of AI. Like, it's clear that they were able to catch up on creation of frontier model with DeepSeek, but, how much is actually getting implemented?
Speaker 2:This is extremely ironic as The US effectively pushed China to develop models that are more efficient Yeah. And open source, which turns out to be a better strategy for global diffusion.
Speaker 1:If you're
Speaker 2:a company in say Germany or Brazil, can download Quine or DeepSeek, run it locally, fine tune it for your market and never worry about API rate limits.
Speaker 1:But does that mean that you win?
Speaker 2:The article notes, the public in China is the most optimistic in the world about AI.
Speaker 1:NVIDIA is a $5,000,000,000,000 company. Like like, if they could sell to China, how much like, it's not like it's a $10,000,000,000,000 company. Is it? Is it that big of a deal? Like, how how how big is the China opportunity?
Speaker 2:Second largest computing market in the world.
Speaker 1:I don't know.
Speaker 2:Depends on how AGI pulled you are, John. Tesla was selling into China as long as well, as long as it took for them to copy it.
Speaker 1:New York City is choosing between Mamdani and Cuomo, and Mamdani is at 95% chance. Cuomo's at 5%.
Speaker 2:90.
Speaker 1:You know, there's lot of people out there saying smart money's on Cuomo. Maybe he'll win.
Speaker 2:I think the degenerate money is on Quoala. That's probably true. Monthly performance from Canva, Wingstop, Shake Shack, a bunch of other, restaurants. Most of these restaurant stocks were trading at 35 to a 100 times forward PE just recently. Many still are.
Speaker 2:This is just a bubble deflating. Bubbles can't be sustained indefinitely.
Speaker 1:Chipotle's big bet on younger consumers is is unraveling. Uncertain US economy is catching up to younger Americans. Chain has spent years cultivating a younger clientele, pitching its burritos and bowls as nutritious protein packed meals for gym bros and healthy eaters. What do you think, Ben?
Speaker 2:I I used to get easily 90 of my calories from Chipotle at certain times of my life. And and anytime you were, like, on a long drive. Yes. Knowing that at some point in the drive you could pull over and have a nice, fresh, nutritious slot bowl. It was something to look forward to.
Speaker 1:Oh, it was amazing.
Speaker 2:Quality is degraded to such an extreme degree that it's no, I'd rather fast than eat Chipotle in almost any situation.
Speaker 1:Sort of look
Speaker 2:back fondly on the days when Chipotle was felt and was a luxury when I was like, okay.
Speaker 1:Have a lot meat and guacamole. Extra guac and extra meat was like, I am a king.
Speaker 2:Were you were you at, like, a frozen chicken breast guy too?
Speaker 1:Yeah. For sure.
Speaker 2:Because I'd just be looking at I'd be looking at the one pound bag of rice and the frozen chicken breast being like, again. We meet again, man.
Speaker 1:We meet again.
Speaker 2:Revenue is growing because they're they're opening new stores, but at existing stores, you see
Speaker 1:They gotta go up market caviar bowls. Can I have Wagyu? A five Wagyu bowl with, double beluga on top. History was just made. Lux family company, Andoril Technology, has just successfully flown the first ever fully autonomous fighter jet ever in US history.
Speaker 2:It it is a crazy looking jet.
Speaker 1:The mainstream narrative is that this was created by humans. Where are all these companies coming from? We're so back. Casey Hanmer's been saying, like, we're not making solar in America effectively. And here's this company that's just, cooking, setting out 14 megawatts of solar panels in a single day.
Speaker 1:Martin Scrella is forecasting that NVIDIA will get to 100,000,000,000,000 in market cap. Even desk email jobs require human thought, but higher priced jobs like legal, medical, finance can also be replaced by AI.
Speaker 2:This is a nightmare post for NVIDIA bears. Yeah. This is really
Speaker 1:Can't make this stuff up. SpaceX Starship, 2,700,000,000.0 HLS contract cost includes docking adapter, NASA Lockheed Orion, 31,600,000,000.0 cost and counting. 19 in nineteen years in development, docking is an extra 2,500,000,000.0 extra.
Speaker 2:The dock's gonna be an extra 2 and a half. We're sorry.
Speaker 1:All this to be an AI notetaker app number eight seven blah blah blah blah blah.
Speaker 2:The question here is, is there a market for an AI notetaker for the kind of people that Cluely is really good at marketing too? I don't think it's possible for them to make a 10x better product than Otter and granola.
Speaker 1:What are college students actually using? Like, what like, from what we've heard, the stack, if you want to, like, cheat on your homework. What is the stack, Jordy? It's actually ChatGPT Atlas. Benchmark 2020 vintage fund marked at an AEX.
Speaker 1:Tyler Hodge has the story. They're doing just fine.
Speaker 2:I think what, Ev Randall should do, new GP
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:Over at Benchmark What should he
Speaker 1:do?
Speaker 2:Is 10 x that fund again.
Speaker 1:Do you need venture capital? Call Ev Randall at Benchmark.
Speaker 2:+1 8018 Trudis raises a 150,000,000 to power the next wave of healthy snacking.
Speaker 1:This is crazy.
Speaker 2:Trudis has closed a $150,000,000 funding round. It's a huge blueberry. By JPMorgan Asset Management with Ray Dalio doubling down.
Speaker 1:Try some of these.
Speaker 2:Valuing the berry powerhouse at over 1,000,000,000. The snacking company best known for its jumbo blueberries and new grab and go snack cups generated more than 400,000,000 in revenue last year with blueberry sales. They gotta get an AI narrative here. This take a simple idea and take it seriously, and sometimes the simple idea is obscenely large blueberries.
Speaker 1:Will. I. Am is in the news because he will be teaching a new class on agentic AI at Arizona State University. Hearing how will. I.
Speaker 1:Am is using AI would be interesting. I am endlessly entertained by there's somebody who has a craft. Like, you might not like his music. You might love his music, but clearly, you know that he makes music. Like, he has a process.
Speaker 1:He has a studio.
Speaker 2:Will. Am was an early investor in Tesla, pre Elon as OpenAI, Anthropic, Twitter, Pinterest, Dropbox, Hugging Face, Beats, and Runway. AI generated song has entered a billboard radio chart for the first time. Zania Monet, created by human, Talisha Jones, who used Suno.
Speaker 1:Suno.
Speaker 2:Also signed a $3,000,000 record deal a few weeks ago. Imagine just following it up and then all of a sudden you got the $3,000,000 record deal. I would like to see, an AI musician not share their real identity and Satoshi of music.
Speaker 1:Music. Not a pop star, but a slop star. If you wanna log off, if you wanna touch some grass, head over to wander, find your happy place, book a wander with inspiring views, touch upgraded menus, dreamy beds, top tier cleaning, twenty four seven concierge service, vacation, but better
Speaker 2:Like most of you guys, I didn't get into crypto to get rich. I got into crypto because I believed in the vision of 500 different stablecoins issued by 500 different centralized institutions on 500 different blockchains.
Speaker 1:Ugh. I do wonder what the stable result is. Like, what what is the final equilibrium? Is it just endless proliferation of new coins, or is it a consolidation?
Speaker 2:If you have Tether at a 183,000,000,000, USCC at 75,000,000,000. The next largest is USDE at 9,000,000,000 below that is DAI. And then below that, below that is World Liberty Financial.
Speaker 1:I have this partially formed hypothesis that artist backlash against generative AI crystallized largely in response to text driven user interfaces. The art world has come to accept tools like Photoshop and earlier photography itself that still shares the aesthetic of traditional art creation. If mid journey, ChadGBT, Dolly, etcetera, had interfaces along the lines of NVIDIA Canvas from 2020 pictured below. I remember this tool. It was awesome.
Speaker 1:You could do that. You could draw whatever whatever, like Right. Outline you wanted, and it would just automatically generate it and look great. Palmer says it would look enough like existing tools that that the critique would look purest and elite. Art via command line, on the other hand, looks sufficiently other that you can easily berate the users as not artists.
Speaker 2:Service Titan at $9,000,000,000 market cap on 866,000,000 of revenue. Comparing that to Harvey, which is $8,000,000,000 valuation on somewhere around a 100,000,000 of ARR. At this point, you have to believe that we're moving from a world of niche vertical vertical SaaS to the next industrial revolution. You would not be able to underwrite Harvey like this against like the existing legal AI market. This is a bet on, labor displacement.
Speaker 2:Apparently, the 200 largest law firms in the world annually provide a 130,000,000,000 of legal services. That's the top 100. So Harvey's already sitting at, you know, basically there.
Speaker 1:We will be back in the ultra gun Los Angeles. We'll see you
Speaker 2:Can't wait. Then. Goodbye.