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The Hot Dish delves into the most pressing issues facing rural America. Hosts Heidi and Joel Heitkamp speak with policymakers, advocates and everyday Americans living across rural America about what's happening across the heartland and what should be done to make life better for rural America.ct's The Hot Dish, former U.S. Senator Heidi Heitkamp serves up insight into issues affecting rural Americans.
Heidi Heitcamp (00:05):
Welcome to The Hot Dish. Well, the results from yesterday's election are in, and Joel and I have hot dish to share all right. On this episode, we're going to analyze some key results and talk about what they might mean for 2024. Joining me today is my brother, Joel Heitcamp, to talk about impressions that we have about what's happening in the political world. Thanks, Joel, for coming on.
Joel Heitcamp (00:28):
You bet. It is me, Joel Heitcamp, who also is a senator from North Dakota, it just happens to be a state senator. So the only thing I can tell my big sister is I'm the Heitcamp that never lost a race. Now, that being said, can I just throw this out?
Heidi Heitcamp (00:44):
You know you learn more by losing, so I'm way smarter than you are.
Joel Heitcamp (00:49):
Well, at least you had the guts to run big time, which I never had those guts. But you look at the races yesterday and you take a hard look at them, Heidi, and it's going to cause a discussion about '17, '18, '19, '20, '21, '22, and now '23, and how all of those years have been bad years for the Republican Party. And what's the one thing in common? All of those years are post-Donald Trump's victory and Donald Trump being on a stage. And so I hope we talk about that a little bit today.
Heidi Heitcamp (01:20):
I think we will, but I want to start out by talking about abortion politics. Because I think everyone had a sense that in 2022, the Democrats were headed for a disaster, and then the Supreme Court did something that was completely predictable given the nominees. They basically reversed Roe v. Wade, and that woke up a whole group of voters who really didn't vote choice before, because they had the right, and then all of a sudden realized that could be taken away through a political system. We saw that again in the race for the legislature in Virginia. We saw it again in the governor's race in Kentucky. We saw it big time in Ohio where the voters again enshrined reproductive rights into the Ohio constitution. Now, remember, Ohio was a state where a 10-year-old who had been raped could not secure an abortion and had to go to Indiana. So their laws were incredibly Draconian.
(02:25):
And so we can't really talk about this, I think, cycle in the last five years without talking about abortion. So I mean, Joel, what do you think it tells us about, number one, how scared some of us in red states were to be pro-choice, politically scared, but what does it tell us about women voters in particular?
Joel Heitcamp (02:49):
Well, it tells us that women have a right to get this on a state level fixed. As a talk show host here in the upper Midwest, I said time and time again that the majority of people out there believe that abortion should be legal. You got to keep in mind, Heidi, that Roe happened a long time ago. It's been a long time since the '70s, and so each one of us know someone, or way more than someone, who has taken advantage of the opportunity for women to make that choice. And so when we see them, we don't see someone evil. And many other people are the ones voting as well who did make that choice. And so by having it be this legal this long, it just simply looked at and was a right that was being taken away. And I think that that's a big problem for those individuals who are pro-life.
Heidi Heitcamp (03:48):
Yeah, and I want to talk about the Virginia strategy, because I think for a lot of Republicans, they think, "Oh, well, the problem is that there isn't an exception in the first trimester for rape and incest. We've gone too radical on the other side to personhood protection at conception. We need to moderate our position and be the kind of moderate party on abortion." Well, let's talk about Virginia.
(04:13):
Governor Youngkin decided that the way to kind of thread the needle of abortion politics was to propose a 15-week ban with exceptions, very narrow exceptions, and that the voters would overwhelmingly support giving him a legislature that would let him do that. And he made that moderation a centerpiece of his attempt to recapture the House of Delegates, or to retain the House of Delegates and recapture the Senate. Guess what? It didn't work.
(04:48):
And so I think that there's going to be some thinking, I think, in Republican circles about what they would call safety net or that safe harbor of a 15-week ban being where the majority of Americans are. This certainly wasn't true in Virginia.
Joel Heitcamp (05:03):
So what does that tell you? That whatever Youngkin's agenda was, it's pretty well gone out the window. And now, he's become a governor where the biggest thing in his life is going to be the word "veto". When you look at the privacy of the ballot box, you stop at the VFW and you say, "I'm pro-choice." Now, you're off and running, right?
Heidi Heitcamp (05:25):
Yep.
Joel Heitcamp (05:26):
There's going to be some jerk in there that you're going to end up fighting, and it's going to be an un...
Heidi Heitcamp (05:30):
Well, and they're going to call you a baby killer, and they're going to... Yeah.
Joel Heitcamp (05:32):
And it's going to be an uncomfortable conversation, because nobody wants to talk about abortion, nobody wants to talk about the issue as a whole. But, you get in that little ugly red booth, the red and the white curtain, right? And you pull it and you get a chance to vote with all that privacy, then you end up seeing exactly what we're seeing, which isn't close races. I mean, you look at Ohio, that wasn't close. That was a whooping that the pro-life people had. And so I don't know what their new strategy is other than to whine about it or go back to church and be popular, but the truth of the matter is they're taking a whooping on the issue.
Heidi Heitcamp (06:14):
Tonight, we're going to have a Republican debate, and on the stage will be fewer candidates than the last time. Pence has bowed out. Asa Hutchinson and Doug Burgum didn't make the stage. And so when you look at this issue, and I am expecting that it's going to come up, it's going to be really fascinating to see how they react to what happened in the 2023, what I would call mid-midterm election, and what their response is going to be, particularly for Nikki Haley, because she has kind of said, "Look, one of our problems is we've been too radical on this and we need to moderate our position." But I don't think... I mean, you know this base as well as I do, Joel. Do you really think that they think 15 weeks is where they should be?
Joel Heitcamp (07:04):
No. In fact, many of them think that it's six weeks is where they should be.
Heidi Heitcamp (07:08):
Yeah. Well, they even [inaudible 00:07:09] at six weeks. Yeah, protection at conception.
Joel Heitcamp (07:13):
Yeah. I mean, look at Ohio. The story isn't hard to tell on why they're wrong when it comes to choice. You're going to find that young girl in Kentucky who looks into a camera and tells that story. And that personalizes it, because everyone knows that could have been their daughter. And so the issue is a losing one. In fact, you can see that Trump recognizes that, because he's already out there spinning, when he, in the fact, is the cause of it.
Heidi Heitcamp (07:45):
Yeah, isn't that the truth? I want to talk about another area of culture wars and kind of something that I think a lot of people would say, "Well, the Democrats have lost our part of the world because of culture." You take a look at Governor Beshear, last night had a remarkable victory, wasn't even close in the end, and he was able to do that in spite of having vetoed really hateful restrictions on healthcare for trans people. And so what does that tell the Democrats in real time about that issue, about trans rights and the, I think, toxicity of this as a voting issue kind of moving forward?
Joel Heitcamp (08:28):
Well, I think it matters what state you're in, number one. Number two-
Heidi Heitcamp (08:33):
But Joel, really, Kentucky? Kentucky's not that different than North Dakota.
Joel Heitcamp (08:37):
Well... No, no, I don't think that that's the reason that what happened in Kentucky happened. I think that that would've been a reason for it not to happen, but I don't think it's the reason that the election went the way it went. If you look at some of these areas, finding that champion of trans students and how they're being treated in schools, that's a lot harder to find, but the people that do come forth, they're articulate when it comes to it. In the end, that's the one thing coming from a very red state. I know we've both been popular. I shouldn't say popular, but proud of, is the fact that, you know what? I don't care. I know right from wrong. I mean, I don't care, don't elect me, but I know right from wrong.
Heidi Heitcamp (09:23):
Well, and I think that the importance of this as an issue, it definitely didn't rise to the level of, "Man, that guy vetoed these bills and I'm going to go out and vote against him. That's the one reason why I'm going to vote against him." People may not have liked the veto, but in the end it wasn't a voting issue. And I think that's something that we can say is fair.
(09:51):
The one that surprised me actually, I thought that, even though he came very close, Presley, to beating the sitting governor of Mississippi, fell a little bit short. The Mississippi governor, he had an administration that's been riddled with scandal, and I think Presley was the right candidate to go out and really be in the arena in a way that we haven't been competitive in Mississippi in the past. What's your sense of how possible it is in the next 10 years for Mississippi to become a state, not necessarily reliably blue, but definitely much more of a swing state, much more of a purple state?
Joel Heitcamp (10:34):
Well, the answer to that is tell me who the leader of the Republican Party is. If you end up with someone with some common sense and the ability to actually care about people instead of themselves, then I think the opportunity to take over a state like that or to win a race is minuscule. If you end up with a person like Donald Trump that everyone is embarrassed to have be their leader... I mean, whether they vote for him or not, don't kid yourself, people get embarrassed by him. I've got a good friend that is a very moderate Republican that voted for him twice that is embarrassed to have him be president; he just doesn't like the Democrat.
(11:15):
And so that stuff matters. When you look at a race like Mississippi, the biggest thing a race like that does is it gives courage to other people who wouldn't even consider running in a red state. And now they look at a race like that and say, "Wait a second here, he almost won. And my guy is a little right of Attila the Hun. I'll take him on. I'll make a run at this." And I think that race did that for people.
Heidi Heitcamp (11:43):
I think the other thing is this is a state that is almost 40% African-American, and Democrats underperform in terms of turnout. And I don't know, this goes back to your bitch and my bitch, which is some small amount of investment might be appreciated here. Don't write us off so readily.
(12:08):
I want to transition to the national election coming up 2024. Map is incredibly difficult for Democrats in the Senate, much more optimistic about the House. There's only a four or five vote margin there with many. I think there's 18 members that are in Biden districts, what we would call districts Biden won. I think that the dysfunction in the House of Representatives, they looked like a clown show in their last couple weeks trying to elect a speaker. We'll see if they can recover any semblance of political momentum for a House of Representatives. But obviously the big enchilada here is going to be the president. And some polling in the New York Times over the weekend would suggest that President Biden's challenged at this point in time. How worried are you, Joel? Do you think Biden will be able to return to the White House?
Joel Heitcamp (13:06):
If you look at the polling, you'd have to say no, but he hasn't gotten a chance to run head-to-head against Donald Trump yet. And Joe Biden, everybody's criticizing him for not criticizing Trump. I think he's biding his time perfectly when it comes to it. I think coming out and punching the guy is going to come, it just is going to come at the right time.
(13:30):
Now, that being said, Joe Biden's old. I mean, we can't ignore that. Joe Biden's old. Donald Trump is old. If we were to run a younger candidate against Donald Trump, I thoroughly believe, if it's the right candidate, that these numbers wouldn't be anywhere near where they are. And I've been saying on my radio show that 80-year-olds, certainly people in their mid-80s, you have to question whether or not their time has come and is gone. And I know that doesn't make me very popular with the Democrats. I get it. Oh, trust me. Check out the phone calls I get. But for the very same reason you got to be 35 to be president is the very same reason that maybe we should have a talk on both of these men's case, because they're both going to be in their 80s, that maybe there should be a cutoff on the top end.
Heidi Heitcamp (14:24):
Well, I mean, that's what a lot of people are talking about. And I obviously work on a college campus. I think young people are wondering why, when we have 330 million people in this country, we actually have these as our only choices. And so I think that's a legitimate question about whether the political system is producing candidates that people are excited about. I mean, I think we've been such a fear-based kind of political dynamic over time. We're more interested, rather than inspiring people, scaring people. "Boo! Don't elect that guy. Boo! That'll be really bad. Boo!" As opposed to, "Here's somebody who really will lead the economy in the right direction for young people that deal with income inequality." And I know Biden's got a lot of ammunition as it relates to what he has done, but it's just not translating. There's a lot of bragging about Bidenomics, but right now, 70% of the people think the economy is headed in the wrong direction. So maybe you ought not to label your economic policies with your name.
Joel Heitcamp (15:37):
Just a second, Heidi. I mean, you take a look at the charts that Steve Rattner just produced, the gross domestic product, we're kicking butt. You look at what our country's doing in relation to other countries that did fall into recession, we're kicking butt. If you go to people and ask them... This morning, when I filled up with gas, $3.05, right? There is eggs in the store. It was Biden's fault that the chickens died, right? And so I look at it in Joel's sports analogy, my passion for sports, sometimes people play the game too long. I mean, what a record. Get elected to the United States Senate before you legally can take office. You work your way all the way through to all these different levels, Senate, Vice President, President. You know what? I think riding off into history as a winner wouldn't be a bad thing. The problem is he's not going to saddle the horse, Heidi. He's just not.
Heidi Heitcamp (16:35):
Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think as we look at kind of the economy and where things will be in a couple years... And I make this argument because the response always is the macroeconomic numbers, GDP, unemployment. But when you drill down and you say, as my friend Barbara Mikulski used to say, "The Democrats win because we pay attention to, yes, the macroeconomic numbers, but we're the macaroni and cheese party," right? What do families need? And what are families getting? And families are feeling financially insecure. I don't think there's any doubt about it. The interest rates are up, and a lot of them depend on credit. If you're a young person and you want to find daycare, you can't find affordable daycare. You can't find a job. I mean, you can't find a job that's going to pay you enough to pay for your daycare. You're looking at now student loans will be coming back. You can't afford housing. I mean, these are challenges and a lot of people are raising these concerns.
(17:48):
And I recently did some economic television for one of the networks that basically report on the economy and business, and a host of a show that I'm on a lot basically raised something that hasn't been raised, which is insurance costs have gone through the roof, in part driven by climate, in part driven by these weather patterns that have raised costs so high. And so when people are feeling like, "Everything is coming at me, and I don't feel like I'm getting ahead, and I don't feel like my kids are going to enjoy the same kind of lifestyle that I enjoyed," that creates an economic insecurity and you're going to blame the guy who was there.
(18:34):
And Trump, when you look at his numbers, his economic numbers were really bad. Now, they would say, "Well, that's the pandemic," but I always say he promised he would protect us. He alone could do it. Why didn't he protect us from the pandemic? I mean, he wants credit for all of these other numbers, why doesn't he have to take responsibility for what happened during the pandemic? But people's image of Trump's economy is really pretty favorable, and so I think that's a hurdle for the president and the vice president to overcome.
Joel Heitcamp (19:05):
Well, I think you're right to bring up insurance, but let's keep in mind that, in the end, it's interest rates. When I bought my pickup two years ago, the deal I got with the motor company, since we're not saying brand names, when I bought my pickup, the interest rates was 0.5%, okay?
Heidi Heitcamp (19:24):
Wow.
Joel Heitcamp (19:24):
When my producer just bought her car, the interest rate she was looking at was 9%. Now, that's the truth, those are the numbers, and so Joe Biden gets blamed for that. And he and his campaign have to understand that unless they have an answer for that between now and the Fall of '24, they're going to lose the election.
Heidi Heitcamp (19:47):
Yeah. Joel, I want to just spend just a minute talking about farms and net farm income. Net farm income's never been higher. We had two record years. This year wasn't as good as 2023, or 2021, but why isn't Biden doing better in rural America?
Joel Heitcamp (20:12):
Well, because a lot of the problems that farmers have we've solved as Democrats. You know that. I know that. In your time in the United States Senate, you did that. The people before you did that. They have crop insurance. They know that if there's a terrible drought out there, they're covered. They also know that if, you know what, something happens and the whole quarter gets wiped out, they're covered.
(20:37):
They don't worry anymore about whether or not the federal government is going to step in and help them. It isn't the 1980s that their parents lived through. And so they take the federal government... It's the same way, Heidi, that many of the unions out there, the people that build Bobcats in North Dakota started voting Republican. It's because we fixed workers' comp, we fixed health insurance, we fixed family leave. We fixed all of these things and they don't need us anymore, and so why not vote about gays, guns, and God in their mind? I mean, it's that ridiculous, but someday that'll back up on farmers.
(21:15):
Look at, right now, they're going to get an extension on the farm bill. Grassley today was already talking about two extensions on the farm bill because they didn't want to deal with it in an election year. Farmers don't have to worry. They've got a great big insurance blanket.
Heidi Heitcamp (21:31):
Well, and the 2018 Farm Bill, which I'm proud to have helped write, is a pretty damn good farm bill. And if you're extending a pretty good farm bill, could we tweak it here and there? Could we make improvements? A lot of the conservation improvements that I would fight for, they were already done in the Inflation Reduction Act, and so there isn't a lot of pressure.
(21:53):
Crop insurance will continue, actually even without an extension, and so there isn't a lot of pressure to do a new farm bill in that way. And so, like you said, predictability and a sense that we're covered, that we've got that kind of guarantee, has really led to kind of exposure, I think, challenges for the Democrats to advance an idea that would be a voting idea.
Joel Heitcamp (22:18):
The one thing you're going to see in farm country is a whole lot of new grain bins, a whole lot of leg systems on top of them. You're going to see some new combines. You're going to see some new pickups, and you're going to see a lake home. They get mad when you say that, they do, but 1-800-go-ahead-and-get-mad-at-me, I'm a talk show host. But they haven't done so bad for a couple years now.
Heidi Heitcamp (22:38):
Well, yeah, and so it goes back to your argument about the economy. The economy is horrible. Look how horrible this has been, but a record day at farm income.
Joel Heitcamp (22:49):
Yeah. Yep. Exactly.
Heidi Heitcamp (22:52):
So Joel, I think we're going to have lots of time to talk politics in the next couple months. Want to talk about the Senate and about how important rural America is to reelecting some of the senators that we know and love and making sure that we're providing an insight, I think, to what it's going to take to do better. We're not going to win rural America as Democrats, but what would it take to do better, to cut the margins? Because you can't lose rural America 80/20 and expect to win Iowa ever again, or even Ohio. So Joel, it's always good to talk to you. Your straight shooter, unvarnished opinion is incredibly valuable. And thanks for co-hosting The Hot Dish with me.
Joel Heitcamp (23:45):
You bet. Deer hunting this weekend. I got priorities.
Heidi Heitcamp (23:49):
Sausage.
Joel Heitcamp (23:50):
Yeah, exactly.
Heidi Heitcamp (23:52):
It's what he gives for Christmas, so it's like Christmas shopping for Joel.
Joel Heitcamp (23:56):
Well, and just to point out, you don't even doubt whether or not I'm going to get my deer, so there.
Heidi Heitcamp (24:01):
Well, I don't because Michael scoped it out. He wants to go out there.
Joel Heitcamp (24:04):
Oh, don't even start. Don't even start.
Heidi Heitcamp (24:07):
He's going to go out and tell you where the best spot is.
Joel Heitcamp (24:08):
Yeah, all right.
Heidi Heitcamp (24:09):
Yeah, you don't have to work very hard.
Joel Heitcamp (24:11):
I got my deer long before he even knew it.
Heidi Heitcamp (24:13):
Oh yeah, talk big.
Joel Heitcamp (24:14):
It reached the point...
Heidi Heitcamp (24:15):
Yeah, I wish he were on. We should have Michael on to talk about you.
Joel Heitcamp (24:19):
Yeah, yeah.
Heidi Heitcamp (24:22):
Take care of everyone, okay?
Joel Heitcamp (24:24):
You bet.
Heidi Heitcamp (24:27):
Thanks so much for joining us today on The Hot Dish. If you enjoyed our show, please rate and review us on Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. And to support the important work that One Country Project is doing to elevate the needs of rural America and Washington, please visit onecountryproject.com/give. Thanks so much. We'll see you in two weeks.
Speaker 3 (25:07):
Voxtopica.