Ducks Unlimited Podcast

Despite a recent Arctic plunge, the outlook for duck hunters through the end of the year isn’t exactly promising. Dr. Mike Brasher is joined by Mandy Bailey, Chief Meteorologist at KTEN in Denison, Texas, and Skot Covert, Chief Meteorologist at 5News in Fayetteville/Fort Smith, Arkansas, to recap the latest winter weather outbreak and discuss what’s ahead as we close out the season. Early La Niña forecasts have largely held true, and that pattern appears to continue—warm and dry conditions dominate the southern Central and Mississippi Flyways, while frigid air grips the north. Out West, hunters and communities face repeated rounds of flooding rain, creating unique challenges for holiday hunts. Join us for expert insights on holiday weather trends and what they mean for your hunting plans.

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Creators and Guests

Host
Mike Brasher
DUPodcast Science Host

What is Ducks Unlimited Podcast?

Ducks Unlimited Podcast is a constant discussion of all things waterfowl; from in-depth hunting tips and tactics, to waterfowl biology, research, science, and habitat updates. The DU Podcast is the go-to resource for waterfowl hunters and conservationists. Ducks Unlimited is the world's leader in wetlands conservation.

Mike Brasher:

Hey, everyone. Join us on today's episode as we visit with Mandy Bailey and Scott Covert to discuss weather, the recent weather that has broken out across The US, weather that is ongoing, and importantly, we look forward to the next seven to fourteen days and what you can expect between now and the end of the year and how it might influence your opportunities to get out and hunt. Stay with us, folks, and always remember, life is short. You better hunt.

VO:

Can we do a mic check, please?

VO:

Everybody, welcome back to the Ducks Unlimited podcast. I'm your host, doctor Mike Brasher.

VO:

I'm your host, Katie Burke.

VO:

I'm your host, doctor Jared Henson. And I'm your host, Matt Harrison.

VO:

Welcome to the Ducks Unlimited podcast, the only podcast about all things waterfowl. From hunting insights to science based discussions about ducks, geese, and issues affecting waterfowl and wetlands conservation in North America. The DU podcast, sponsored by Purina Pro Plan, the official performance dog food of Ducks Unlimited. Purina Pro Plan, always advancing. Also proudly sponsored by Bird Dog Whiskey and Cocktails.

VO:

Whether you're winding down with your best friend or celebrating with your favorite crew, Birddog brings award winning flavor to every moment. Enjoy responsibly.

Mike Brasher:

Hey, everyone. Welcome back. I am doctor Mike Brazier. I'm gonna be your host on this episode. We are recording this on December 15, and we have a weather update and sort of a weather look forward.

Mike Brasher:

Typically, we do these by way of video, but we're trying something a little bit different. We're just gonna do an audio version here, and I have joining me two of our expert meteorologists. First, I'm gonna welcome in Mandy Bailey, chief meteorologist of K out of K 10, Denison, Texas. Mandy, it's great to have you back with us.

Mandy Bailey:

Yeah. So excited to be back, and thanks for having me on today.

Mike Brasher:

Yeah. It's first time having you be part of this this year, and we thank you for for sharing your time with us. And then also joining us is Scott Covert, chief meteorologist with five news out of Fayetteville, Fort Smith, Arkansas. Returned guest, Scott, welcome back.

Skot Covert:

Thank you so much for having us. Talking about weather and ducks, two awesome topics.

Mike Brasher:

And I also have to let our listeners know just how dedicated and and generous you are, and so many of our other partners are with your time. Both of you are still on vacation right now, annual leave, and you're taking out taking, you know, a few minutes out of your schedule to to share with us, and that's not unusual for a lot of us that love the outdoors, in this case, love weather. So thank you so much for going the extra mile to bring some, you know, interesting insight to what has played out in recent days, and more importantly, looking forward over the next seven to fourteen days. So thank you again. And we will we'll we'll kinda jump right in.

Mike Brasher:

This has Scott, I'll go to you first, and because we we spoke with you a few weeks ago, and so the big setup has been La Nina, and before we started recording here, you were talking about how generally what we've seen thus far this year is very consistent with those long term La Nina patterns. So remind folks of what that is or, you know, what the what that pattern is and how exactly is it that you're saying we're consistent with what we were expecting coming in?

Skot Covert:

Yeah. So La Nina is gonna be some cooler than normal ocean waters in the Equatorial Pacific, and you might wonder why in the world do we care about that in in the Pacific or Mississippi or the Atlantic Flyways? Well, that La Nina is gonna displace the jet stream or the storm track, and that obviously is going to have major implications depending on where you're at in proximity to that storm track. And for for some in the Deep South, that might mean warmer temperatures, below average rainfall. If you're perhaps in the Great Lakes region or the Pacific Northwest, perhaps that means more rainfall than normal.

Skot Covert:

And we kind of saw those tea leaves when we visited about this a few weeks ago. And sometimes we do these long range outlooks, and we always tell you, or at least any honest weatherman will tell you, hey. You know, long range outlooks are are, you know, iffy at best. In this case, though, the winter thus far has played out really right on cue in terms of what a typical La Nina winter looks like, especially for a weak La Nina, which this has been thus far. We've seen a lot of dry weather, in the Deep South.

Skot Covert:

In fact, we're we're start we're not in too bad of a shade, but you get much longer, more than, you know, a week or two, we're probably gonna start seeing that drought monitor, reflect some of that. Meanwhile, there are parts of the country that have seen a lot of rain. And temperature wise, we've been above average, which is what you'd expect in the Deep South. Mississippi fly away, but there are parts of the country in the upper tier of states that have been actually pretty cold. At times, we'll see a a Arctic blast dip south, but just like what we talked about a few weeks ago, even though that happens, it's generally pretty short lived.

Skot Covert:

In fact, we just had that happen the past couple of days. I was in The Caribbean, on a sunny beach where the temperatures were 80, but when I stepped off that plane in Arkansas a couple days ago, it was 20. Yeah. So the but when we look at the next seven days, we're quickly rebounding across most of the country. And as we're going to dive into today, that pattern probably holds for at least a week or two.

Mike Brasher:

Not necessarily what I was wanting to hear right there at the end, Scott, but I was kind of expecting it looking at some of the numbers I've seen come across the TV. Mandy, what's the temperature there in North Texas where you are right now?

Mandy Bailey:

So

Mike Brasher:

we

Mandy Bailey:

've

Mike Brasher:

Or, actually, you're in you're you're in San you're in San Antonio. That's right. So you escaped some of that colder weather as well, but up around Denison, North Texas.

Mandy Bailey:

But even down here, I mean, the cold front hit here yesterday, and, I mean, we fell into the fifties. They were in the upper seventies on Friday. So a decent shot of cold air. I mean, lows were in the teens and twenties yesterday morning across North Texas, Southern Oklahoma. I mean, this was a good deep shot, but it's not gonna last.

Mandy Bailey:

I mean, data shows us warming back sixties, maybe even seventies by the middle of this coming week. And so we've seen this happen since, I would say, probably sometime in November where you get maybe two days where it's actually kind of cold, and then it's gone, and we warm back up. And then, I mean, we were we had eighties in November for North Texas, and a lot of people are when is the cold air gonna get here? We have cooled down some since then. But, yeah, like Scott was saying, the next couple weeks, I mean, for us specifically, we look a lot warmer even heading into Christmas.

Mike Brasher:

And and it really is we're gonna talk about what's happening on the West Coast here in a moment, but when you look East Of The Rockies, it really is, you know, splitting the country in half, north and south, and you've got some dramatically different patterns that have that have been in been in play the past couple weeks, and as you said, looked like they will continue at least in the next couple of weeks where although we are going to warm up over the next little while, correct me if I'm wrong, it looks as though there's some additional shots of cold air that are coming into the, you know, Northern Great Plains, Prairie Canada. Some of the forecast temperatures I saw up there were like minus 10, minus five, and so things are entrenched pretty well up there. There's some exceptions. Think the farther west you get a little bit, but but, yeah, that's is is that a jet stream thing, Mandy, that's that's playing out there and kinda allowing those cold temperatures to to remain in place up north, but the but but we stay warm down here or at least warm up more more quickly?

Mandy Bailey:

Yeah. If you look at a snow map, you're really gonna see kind of that dividing line of where the jet stream has been hovering, especially the last week and a half. I was checking snow maps last night. You've got decent snowpack up north, but then down south and really through the plains, there's nothing. And so that jet stream has been in northwest flow here the last even almost two weeks, and anything north of that, you've got the cold air trapped north.

Mandy Bailey:

Anything south of that, I mean, we are warm. So it is really the dividing line when you look at the pattern right now.

Mike Brasher:

Scott, I was looking at some migration reports, some Facebook posts the past couple of days, and people in Missouri and some of those Mid Latitude areas were talking about the past few days being some big flight days. The snowpack, the cold temperatures north of north of us really put some birds on the move, and so that's that's a good thing for those people in some of those areas. But this is also a year that reminds us just how many factors have to align for a large percentage of of our hunting community to share in a good season. Like, yes, it's cold north of us. Yes, there have been some birds come south into the areas where we are, but here in North Mississippi, in Arkansas, in in West Tennessee, in a few other areas, it's been really dry.

Mike Brasher:

So, yeah, we've got cold temperatures. We've got snowfall up north of us. We always say that's one thing that we want, but that's just one of many different ingredients that go into this. You know, number one, I have to remind people that that we are starting this hunting season with a lower than than average fall flight. You know, we did not expect great production to have occurred this year in the prairies, and so probably a lot of adult birds in the flocks that are coming south, but not a very not not a large fall flight to begin with.

Mike Brasher:

And then if you here in the areas where we are, it's it's still very dry. So if you're a person that has access to water, you you're probably doing pretty well, but there are so many people that rely on those naturally flooded wetlands, rely on precipitation, rely on overbank river flooding to to give them places to hunt, they're really struggling. And I think you've kind of seen and heard about some of this as well, right, Scott?

Skot Covert:

Absolutely. On our own family farm, we're dealing with just that, and a lot of those opportunities are rather limited to where that water is. I look at the forecast through that eye of, okay. Are we gonna get any water between now and the end of the season? And I'm not optimistic.

Skot Covert:

Yeah. And that's possible. Right? Like, when we talk about the next seven to ten days, it's we are painting with some broader strokes, but generally speaking, it looks like this pattern of what we've seen is set to continue. So if you were hoping for that big rain like I have been, I wouldn't necessarily count on it happening in the near term.

Mike Brasher:

Yeah. Thinking about places where you are in in Arkansas, White River, you know, National Wildlife Refuge, they need a lot of rain to bring those river levels up and and provide access to to those tens of thousands of acres for the ducks and the duck hunters. Mandy, what about precipitation there in North Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, those places north of you? What has been the pattern there? Is it still pretty dry?

Mandy Bailey:

Yeah. We're super dry. We're seeing weekly changes now in the drought monitor because of how things have gone and actually have extreme drought, that stage four drought now in Central Oklahoma. North Texas, it's been pretty spotty. I have been surprised.

Mandy Bailey:

We haven't seen big weekly changes yet, but I think with this pattern, if it stays up, we're gonna start seeing some more drought quickly creeping back in because really extending through about to September, that's when we started seeing we would either have a lot of rain all at once, and then you go two, three weeks where we see nothing, and then we'll get a couple inches again. And so the couple inches at a time definitely have helped, but the overall trend has been very dry, very warm, and that does look like it's gonna continue. I mean, we do not have good rain chances here for the next two weeks at all.

Mike Brasher:

Well, I wish we had better news to bring to people down in this part of the world, though. I've I've been watching it as well and looking out, looking for rain because so many I'm I'm like so many other people. The places that I traditionally hunt rely on that that natural rainfall, overbank flooding of small creeks and streams and just not getting it, and came into the fall very, very dry, so not starting from, from a good place from that standpoint. So they obviously have had a little bit of rain, and that's that's put some moisture in the soil, and that's gonna help, but still need quite a bit more than what is in the the near term term forecast. One place that is not lacking water, and in fact they've been getting way too much here in the recent past, is sort of the West Coast and certainly the Pacific Northwest right now.

Mike Brasher:

They've had a series of of storm events, flooding. It's pretty widespread in in a few areas up there. So, Mandy, talk a little about what's causing that. And I think I saw a forecast, I'm not sure what this is if it's showing up at your models, of of another series of like, this atmospheric river, Pineapple Express, whatever you wanna call it, is kinda gearing up to continue. What do we know about, our folks out there?

Mandy Bailey:

Yeah. So for the next two weeks, they are expecting above average rainfall for much of the West Coast, and this storm system specifically through Wednesday is gonna be kinda coming right down the coast and moving in. And so they can expect another at least inch of rain falling, which as you know, if they've already had a lot and you add just a little bit more to that, you're gonna see flooding happen a lot faster. And so I think that's definitely gonna be something they're gonna have to watch not only this week, but overall, just looking at data through about Christmas time, it does look like they're gonna have a series of just different storm systems, those bowling ball lows kind of coming in. And so it does look really favorable for additional rainfall out there.

Mike Brasher:

So, Scott, one of the other things that comes to my mind when I imagine these specific storms coming in is, like, what does that do to some of the Intermountain? Does that moisture carry over into the Intermountain West areas such as Great Salt Lake? You know, we've talked in the past about on on other upper other episodes about declining lake levels in that region, but then also how does this influence the likelihood of getting additional moisture up there in the Prairies? So either of those two areas, what do we know about how these this series of storms may influence our ability to get precipitation, much needed precipitation in those areas?

Skot Covert:

It certainly bodes well for, the the Intercontinental Mountain Region for sure, probably to a lesser degree than right there on the West Coast, but it certainly bodes well, especially in comparison to the rest of the country. In terms of the Prairies, it certainly can. It really comes down to how amplified or not is that jet stream. And, you know, of course, La Nina is one of many factors. There are others that are probably playing some more, small scale, influence.

Skot Covert:

I think it bodes well overall. And I also said that last year, and I was wrong too. So I'll I'll happily disclose that. Last year when we talked about one of these, you know, the short term, the season outlook wasn't good, but I was optimistic for rains on the Prairies just based off of a weak La Nina, and it didn't happen. So in full spirit of disclosure, I've been wrong on that before.

Skot Covert:

I I still, though, the data would suggest that those types of influences, a good fetch of moisture almost consistently, over a several day period of time, plus a pretty active storm track, I think that bodes well for for rain on the Prairies.

VO:

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Mike Brasher:

I can say I was speaking with someone, I guess it was last week. It was actually one of our colleagues from Delta Waterfowl, who said the good news is that things cooled down very quick on the prairies, so and I think that I think there was, at least in North Dakota, maybe in South Dakota to some extent, I I think Saskatchewan is an exception. He's still worried about that, but some of these areas received some rainfall throughout the fall, and then things cooled down very quick, so they they got a really good frost seal. So any snow that accumulates or any rain that may fall as we get into if if we have an early spring, if we we get any of that, I think we're set up in his eyes for favorable runoff. That's a good thing.

Mike Brasher:

But we are we'll always be hoping for more more snowfall between now and then. The Great Lakes, if we look at those, the I think the ice cover is ahead of ahead of schedule, ahead of average. But, again, just in the past few years, we've talked about how Great Lakes ice cover has lagged the long term average. Now we're ahead of the long term average. We've even got some additional snowfall across the Upper Midwest, but that doesn't necessarily translate into immediate success for folks down here because we have to have the conditions that are right for us, have to have the habitat to hunt.

Mike Brasher:

The other folks that we'll talk about or think about here, the our our our colleagues out in the Atlantic Flyway. Scott or Mandy, do either of y'all have any insight on kinda how things have shaped up for then or or or what they may be looking towards? Mandy, maybe I'll go to you first.

Mandy Bailey:

Are you talking about out west for the rain coming in or still up north?

Mike Brasher:

No. I'm actually kinda thinking about how the pattern that we're seeing here East Of The Continental Divide, East Of The Rockies may be influencing our folks in the Atlantic Flyway. Are they kinda experiencing the same type of thing that we are here in the Central Mississippi Flyways?

Mandy Bailey:

Well, generally, when you have a storm system come through, it's gonna be kind of modifying or weakening, usually the farther south you go. So if you're in Northwest flow and you have really good rainfall in California with the storm system coming in swinging south through the plains, it's gonna eventually kick off to the East. Sometimes it moves northeast. Sometimes you see it move to east depending on other atmospheric conditions, high pressure, things like that. And so depending on where it's going, by the time it gets there, it might not be nearly as strong, and we see that so many times with not only temperatures and cold fronts.

Mandy Bailey:

I mean, think Florida, The cold front that eventually starts in Montana by the time he gets to Florida is not gonna be the same air moving in. And so a lot of times, these these storm systems get a little weaker going east. Now I will say with us specifically, there have been several occasions this fall, this winter where we've had stuff come in, and it hasn't been great with rain, but then it scoots east. And then we start seeing much better rainfall across the Southeast, better storm system. Temperatures out there have been a little warmer.

Mandy Bailey:

So in terms of convective storms, rainfall, that kind of thing, we are seeing a little bit better chances. But in general, it just kind of is really gonna depend on each storm, how it plays out. But, typically, things get a little weaker as they move east.

Mike Brasher:

And so in the forecast, we don't see any there there's no major change or no major deviation from this broad pattern that would that we would see in the in the East Coast.

Mandy Bailey:

We're moving in zonal flow this week, and so that's not really super conducive of seeing major changes. It stays pretty stagnant when we get in that. It's kinda this west to east pattern with the jet stream. And so when you get there, you're not gonna have these little kind of waves that come through. It's just gonna be very status quo.

Mandy Bailey:

So I would expect that here for the next week.

Skot Covert:

It's it's when we get those those quick cold snaps that we've had at least two of this year alone. When you look at the core of that cold air, where is that Arctic high pressure actually moving through? It's in the Atlantic flyaway that where we've seen the core of that cold air. That's when it's where it's been the coldest. Yeah.

Skot Covert:

Some of that is translated further west, as far west as the Rockies. I mean, in Arkansas here, of course, this past weekend, we got a big snap of cold air, but we were on the western periphery of that. You get to the core of of that actual Arctic air, my goodness. They have definitely dealt with some some cold outbreaks, but they're short lived. Right?

Skot Covert:

And so, yeah, once the zonal flow breaks, which may not be anytime soon, that jet stream kind of reorients back from the Northwest to the Southeast, I would expect to have favorable conditions once more in the Northeast along the East Coast for a little bit colder temperatures than the rest of us are gonna get from those cold snaps.

Mike Brasher:

So as we look from now to the end of the year, it sounds like we've got continuation of of moisture, the atmospheric rivers, those Pacific storms coming into the West Coast. It sounds like we have above average temperatures and limited rainfall in the Southeastern, South Central US, and in the Great Plains, Great Lakes, maybe into the the the Northeast, it's gonna be it's gonna be chilly. Is there any snow coming in with into those areas over the next couple of weeks? What are we seeing there?

Skot Covert:

Yeah. Of course, there's gonna be a flurry or two here and there, but in terms of big snowstorms, with that zonal flow, it's just gonna be tough to come by. You're gonna really wanna see that jet stream become amplified. So when we talk about zonal, as as Mandy said, west to east, almost like a straight line. But if you were to maybe take a spaghetti noodle and it's you know, got some high arches and some some low valleys, that amplification is gonna be what brings us those weather systems and the colder temperatures that might produce snow.

Skot Covert:

Still dealing with some lake effect, around the Great Lakes, but aside from that, I don't see any significant snowstorms between now and the next seven days for sure, but I I I have an unusual amount of confidence that that pattern may continue at least through the December too.

Mike Brasher:

Yeah. So between now yeah. Over the next couple of weeks does not sound like great conditions for for duck hunters, you know, because we're looking for things that are we're looking for changing conditions. Obviously, things are gonna be warming up, but that's not ideal. That's creating a more favorable environment for ducks to kind of just hang out.

Mike Brasher:

They don't the thermoregulatory demands and their feeding demands aren't as high, and so they don't have to move around as much, and there's not that cold air and that snow providing sort of reinforcing movements out of the North. Then, of course, we've got challenging conditions in the in the Western US. So, yeah, I mean, if if you're if you're trying to make decisions on when to spend time out in the field chasing ducks, the next couple of weeks may not be your best. If it's the only time on your calendar to do so, then by all means. But if you have other options, you you might, hedge your bets, might might gamble a little bit if things would be a little better in in January.

Mike Brasher:

I don't know. Is that making sense?

Mandy Bailey:

I would say any, like, small scale features would probably be what you'd have to chase. Like, if you have, you know, a cold front for a day, maybe you go when the front's moving through and hope you see some minimal movement with the wind shift or something like that. Because otherwise, yeah, I mean, you're just guessing which day is hopefully gonna turn out if you're warm and dry, and that's gonna be your best bet probably.

Skot Covert:

Yeah. I I think we talked about this early on kind of when to play those fronts. And my recommendation was all of them because there's not gonna a lot of them. And it's gonna it's there's not going to be just, an abundance of change across most of the area. Of course, a little bit different situation on the on the coast, both of them.

Skot Covert:

But across the middle part of the country, pretty stagnant weather expected, which is somewhat normal in a pattern like this.

Mike Brasher:

Well, as we close out, I wanted to I wanna ask about y'all's experiences, Mandy. I think the first time we recorded one of these this well well, the the last time we recorded one of these, you were on an elk hunt. Do I remember that? How did that how did that go?

Mandy Bailey:

So a little disappointing in terms of we didn't harvest one. Out there, they had not getting any snow in the mountains really yet. It was so warm, which is the pattern we've seen, and so you didn't have any of that movement really from the mountains to the valleys. And the last day we were there, we did get a little bit of snow in the mountains, and so we ended up tracking a herd for, oh, a good three to four hours of about 250 elk. And, I mean, it was private land, public land, private land, public land.

Mandy Bailey:

And so we played that game for a while and got so close, and then they didn't hop the fence from private public. And so, yeah, we stumbled upon a couple here and there, but in general, it was so close, but just not all the way there, which was really disappointing. But it was a blast. I mean, we were there for only about four days, so we didn't hunt the full second season. Yeah.

Mandy Bailey:

Learned a lot. And, I mean, we were in a really good position, but I just, because our aunt and uncle didn't tag out either. And so it was just a really tough season up there with really the lack of snow.

Mike Brasher:

Yeah. Or do you have any, plans to get out and do some duck hunting, goose hunting here in or in in North Texas between now and the end of your season?

Mandy Bailey:

Yeah. We're hoping to go somewhere around Christmas. We'll see

Mike Brasher:

how Yeah.

Mandy Bailey:

How warm we get. And then if that doesn't really pan out weather wise, then I'm hoping maybe January will give us a better shot of maybe some colder air coming in at some point.

Mike Brasher:

Yeah. Good deal. And, Scott, you were out hunting yesterday. I saw your Facebook post. You saw birds.

Mike Brasher:

They weren't you saw a huge flock of birds. They were not ducks, though.

Skot Covert:

They were not ducks. My goodness. In the blind, it's cold. You just hear the these these wings, and you're like, oh, man. I'm about to limb it out with one shot.

Skot Covert:

And then and they get right on top of you, and it's just a ton of blackbirds. So it was trip for sure. You know, yesterday for me, I really thought, okay. This is gonna be one of those good days. You got the front coming through for me.

Skot Covert:

It was a strong front. Temperatures were in the low twenties where I was. There was ice. I had to break that up a little bit. Bluebird day, strong north wind.

Skot Covert:

I'm thinking, man, weather wise, like, this is all kinda coming together, but saw about 10 to 15 ducks before shooting light, and that was it. Wow. Saw some some snow geese come through, and, of course, you know, that's kinda cool. They were up high, so something made me think maybe they're just arriving or or passing through at least. Been slow thus far this season.

Skot Covert:

But, you know, I'm thinking about the last couple of years of similar conditions, both weather wise, breeding population. A lot of similarities have kinda continued. One of the things we've not really talked about a lot that I don't have any evidence of, but I just have a feeling we're gonna repeat history. In January, the last two years, we have just gotten major, major article that lingered for a week, two weeks at a time. Things were froze up across a good majority of the landscape.

Skot Covert:

I can't help but think something's going to break, and we're probably going to be dealing with something like that in at some point before the winter's over with. Of course, you know, season running in January for most of us. We'll see where that happens, but I can't help but think that's lurking, a month or so away.

Mike Brasher:

You are definitely a duck hunter because of the optimism that you shared there. I appreciate that. I get it.

Skot Covert:

You just have to lie to yourself sometime. That's right.

Mike Brasher:

And then the other thing that happened last year, it was dry up until, I think, down at least in this part of the the world until early December, and then on over into January, we got, if I remember correctly, several big rain events that Yes. That that put some water into some of the some of those areas in the White River National Wildlife Refuge and and gave me some places to hunt in some of the areas that I do in Mississippi. So hopefully we will get that rain in association with that cold that you're hoping for there, Scott.

Skot Covert:

Yeah. I I it's gonna happen. It's just a question of does it happen And

Mike Brasher:

when. Yeah.

Skot Covert:

And when and when we want it.

Mike Brasher:

Yeah. That's right. And and, also, I I'd be remiss if I did not give a shout out to our the other comrade that that joined us here occasionally, Chance Gotch. We I sent out this email last week asking for your availability, and I think he said I couldn't help but think that that he was waiting on one or both of you to reply before he did because he eventually revealed that today was one of the days one of the few days that he actually was drawn for a hunt on one of the Missouri conservation areas. So, Chance, if you are listening, we hope you had a great day out there.

Mike Brasher:

Hope it hopefully, you were able you were either hunting some deeper water or were able to break some ice because that it's cold. It's cold out there. So, any any final thoughts, Mandy, from you about what hunters need to be? What what mindset do we need to be in?

Mandy Bailey:

I I would just say we're looking pretty warm through kind of the December overall. So if you're in Oklahoma, Texas, somewhere kind of Southern Great Plains, hunt fronts. That would be my best bet, and then we're hoping for cooler air maybe after Christmas come January time frame.

Mike Brasher:

And then, Scott, from you?

Skot Covert:

Yeah. Hunt the fronts for sure. I think despite the fact that some of them, at least in the short term, might be weak and really non substantive, not interesting in any other year. I there's going something's going to break. Like, these patterns, they they don't hold forever.

Skot Covert:

And so, I would watch that seven and ten day forecast. It might get kinda depressing in the short term. There will be changes, and at some point, it may happen quick too.

Mike Brasher:

Well, thank you. Thanks to both of you for joining us, sharing some of your expertise and insight, and we as duck hunters or any kind of hunters are always looking at the weather and and strategizing on when we're gonna go and where we're gonna go, and and we'll stay optimistic, Scott, that that things are gonna are are gonna change for the better as we get into January, certainly for those of us that still have some hunting to go. A lot of folks up north have seen their season come to a close either as a result of the calendar or because of the abrupt outbreak of cold weather that froze them out of their favorite hunting spots. I know some people that that fell victim to that, but thanks to both of you. Merry Christmas, happy holidays, happy New Year, and best of luck to you as you get out in the field and chase whatever animals you're going to.

Mike Brasher:

Thank you. A very special thanks to our guest on today's episode, Mandy Bailey, chief meteorologist with KTEN out of Denison, Texas, and Scott Covert, chief meteorologist with five News Fayetteville Fort Smith, Arkansas. We appreciate their time and expertise in joining us and helping us look forward to what we might expect and can give us some things to hope for and figure out how we will spend our time as we close out the as we close out the year. We thank our producer, Chris Isaac, for all the great work that he does, and we thank you, the listener, for your time, for supporting the podcast, and thank you for your support of wetlands and waterfowl conservation.

VO:

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VO:

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