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Catch up with summaries from an average of 50 new geopolitical events daily. Subscribe to better understand geopolitical risks.
Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for January 3, 2025.
Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and
our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.
Thursday we mapped 50 events including
some interesting sightings around
Scarborough Shoal, so let's get started.
Terrorism,
"Democratic Republic of Congo
On Wednesday, Allied Defense Forces
(ADF) rebels attacked the village of
Mangoya in North Kivu Province, killing
four people and torching homes."
"Democratic Republic of Congo
Overnight Tuesday to Wednesday,
Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels
attacked the village of Bilendu, near
the town of Manguedjipa in Noth Kivu
Province, killing eight civilians."
"India
In a significant move, the Indian Army
successfully detected and defused an
improvised explosive device (IED) in
Jammu and Kashmir's Reasi district.
The Rashtriya Rifles troops found the IED
on the Mahore-Gulabgarh road near Angrala.
The White Knight Corps coordinated
with the police to secure the
area and ensure the safety of
civilians and military personnel."
"India
On Thursday, security forces recovered
a suspected IED in the forest area
of Mahore in the Rajouri district."
"Iraq
On Wednesday, a local source reported
that Turkish artillery targeted the
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in a
village in Duhok Province, Kurdistan
Region, marking the first such incident.
The shelling targeted the village of Avhi
in the Batifa district, north of Zakho,
resulting in damage to two vehicles,
according to preliminary reports."
"Israel
The IDF intercepted a projectile
launched from the southern
Gaza Strip towards Israel.
Rocket sirens sounded in the Gaza-adjacent
community of Holit during the attack."
"Kenya
On Thursday, three men were shot
dead in a fierce battle over
disputed land in the Kerio Valley,
a region also ravaged by banditry.
The gun battle involved the Kasui
and Kiptakitwa clans that have
been disputing Mogil, Elgeyo
Marakwet County land for years."
"Philippines
Unknown assailants threw a grenade
at Mobil Platoon Police Headquarters
in Pagalungan, Maguindanao del Sur.
The blast damaged a vehicle
but caused no casualties.
Police launched a search
for the assailants."
"Philippines
On Tuesday, gunmen riding a motorcycle
opened fire on a truck driven by
a policeman and his wife and their
child, wounding the police officer in
Barangay Awang in Datu Odin Sinsuatin.
The policeman returned
fire during the ambush.
During the attack, a tricycle driver
was injured in the ensuing crossfire."
"United States
Federal, state, and local law
enforcement agents are investigating
a suspected Airbnb rental in
connection with the Bourbon Street
terror attack on New Year's Day.
A small fire broke out in the
rental property, leading to the
discovery of bomb-making materials.
Nearby residents were shocked by the
presence of law enforcement, while
tourists in the French Quarter expressed
concerns and cut their trips short.
The area surrounding the Airbnb remains
closed as investigators gather evidence."
"United States
At least 10 people have been injured
in a shooting outside the Amazura
nightclub in Queens, New York.
None of the casualties
are life-threatening.
The motive behind the shooting
is currently unknown."
Military Conflict
"Gaza Strip
Six people were killed in an
Israeli airstrike at the Hamas-run
Interior Ministry headquarters
in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip."
"Gaza Strip
An alleged Israeli strike in the central
Gaza Strip has resulted in the deaths
of at least eight Palestinian men.
The victims were members of
local committees that assisted
in securing aid convoys.
The Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital
has confirmed the casualties."
"Gaza Strip
The Israeli Air Force conducted
a strike in the southern Gaza
Strip, killing the head of Hamas's
internal security apparatus.
The strike targeted Hussam
Shahwan, who was hiding among
civilians in a humanitarian zone.
Palestinian media reports that
the police chief Mahmoud Salah
and nine others, including women
and children, were also killed."
"Iraq
On Thursday, a security source reported
that Iraqi forces conducted an airstrike
on an ISIS cell in the Al-Zarka near the
city of Tuz Khurmato, Saladin Province.
Details of the strike and
casualty figures were unknown."
"Lebanon
The IDF confirms carrying out an
airstrike in southern Lebanon,
targeting medium-range rocket
launchers at a Hezbollah position.
A rocket launcher near the Hezbollah site
in the Nabatieh District was also struck.
The IDF requested the Lebanese army to
neutralize the launchers but took action
after the request was not handled.
The IDF is still deployed in
southern Lebanon and has until
late January to withdraw."
"Myanmar
According to local and resistance forces,
on Tuesday, a junta drone attack on a
Hindu temple in the village of Ran Na
Gar, near Phyu Township, killed seven
civilians and injured four others."
"Myanmar
On Tuesday, junta forces conducted
two airstrikes on an internally
displaced persons (IDP) camp in Karenni
(Kayah) Stateâs Loikaw Township,
killing a three-year-old child and
a woman and wounding three others."
"Myanmar
The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and
allied forces have intensified their
offensive against Myanmar's military
in the southern Kachin State city
of Bhamo, engaging in fierce clashes
since the beginning of the week.
On Tuesday, the junta forces deployed
drones near Military Operations
Command's 21 headquarters in the town and
conducted airstrikes on KIA positions.
Additionally, the junta deployed snipers
in high-rise buildings across the city and
stationed infantry troops in some areas.
Despite the heavy military presence,
several regime troops have reportedly
been wounded in the fighting."
"Philippines
On Wednesday, China's world's largest
Coast Guard vessel, ""The Monster,""
arrived at the disputed Scarborough
Shoal inside the Philippine exclusive
economic zone to boost Beijing's
control over the maritime area.
The ship arrived as the Chinese navy
conducted a New Year carrier-based
helicopter training exercise in the
airspace over the South China Sea."
"Russia
The Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a
high-precision strike on a Russian army
command post in Maryino, Kursk region.
Casualty figures and damage
assessments were not reported."
"Syria
Anti-aircraft defenses in the US
base in Kharab Al-Jeir in Ramilan
countryside successfully intercepted
a drone intended to attack the base.
As a result, US forces heightened their
alert level, and soldiers sought refuge
in checkpoints and concealed locations."
"Syria
On Wednesday, the Kurdish-led Syrian
Democratic Forces (SDF) shot down a
Turkish Bayraktar TB2 combat drone near
the Qaraqozak Bridge in northern Raqqa."
"Syria
Turkish forces and their factions
in the Peace Spring area launched
heavy artillery shells on Khadrawy,
Tel Hermal, and Mashirfa Village
in Abo Raseen Town, Al-Hasakah.
No casualties were reported."
"Syria
Turkish forces and their factions shelled
Ballak Village in the Ain Al-Arab (Kobane)
countryside with heavy artillery shells.
SDF fired missiles on the positions
of Turkish-backed factions on the
frontline of Sad Teshrin in Manbij
City, but no casualties were reported."
"Syria
Turkish forces and their proxy
factions launched heavy artillery
fire on Um Al-Baramil village
in Ain Issa, northern Al-Raqqah.
They also targeted Kur Hassan,
Kherbet Al-Baqar, and Sawan
villages in the western countryside
of Tel Abyad with mortars."
"Syria
Syrian media reports an Israeli
airstrike near Aleppo targeting a defense
facility and a scientific research
center near the city of al-Safirah.
There was no immediate
comment from the IDF."
"Taiwan
Taiwan tracked seven Chinese naval
vessels and three military aircraft
around its country between 6 a.m.
on Wednesday and 6 a.m.
on Thursday.
The three aircraft crossed
the Taiwan Strait median line
in the nationâs southwest Air
Defense Identification Zone."
"Taiwan
Taiwan tracked 22 Chinese military
aircraft around Taiwan Thursday
morning as part of the PLA's
first combat patrol of the year.
As of 8:50 a.m., 18 of 22 PLA
aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait
median line and entered the northern,
central, southwestern, and eastern
Air Defense Identification Zone.
The aircraft included Shenyang J-16
fighter jets, Shaanxi KJ-500 early
warning and control aircraft, and drones."
"Ukraine
Russian strikes in the Kherson region
resulted in two deaths and six injuries.
The Russian shelling and airstrikes
targeted multiple locations,
causing damage to buildings,
gas pipelines, and vehicles.
The Ukrainian air defense forces
also destroyed a Russian drone."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,370 Russian
soldiers over the past day.
Over 160 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."
"Ukraine
Ukraine's defense forces shot down 47
Russian drones and diverted 24 others off
course during a Russian aerial attack.
Ukrainian forces deployed various measures
to repel the assault, including aircraft,
anti-aircraft missile forces, electronic
warfare units, and mobile fire teams.
The drones were downed in multiple
regions across Ukraine, and one
UAV remains in Ukrainian airspace."
"Ukraine
Five people were injured when a minibus
was struck by Russian artillery fire
in Kherson's Korabelnyi district.
The victims include the driver,
three men, and one woman."
"Ukraine
Russian forces attacked the
Dnipro and Nikopol districts
of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
No casualties or injuries were
reported in the Dnipro district,
but the situation was tense in the
Nikopol district, where kamikaze
drones and heavy artillery were used.
The attacks targeted several
communities and caused damage to
public facilities and infrastructure.
No civilian injuries were reported."
"Ukraine
Russian forces launched KAB glide
bombs at the town of Stepnohirsk in
Zaporizhzhia region, killing a local man.
A five-story building was destroyed,
and a search and rescue operation
lasted more than five hours."
"Ukraine
Russian forces targeted settlements
in the Kharkiv region with guided
aerial bombs and drones, causing
damage to civilian infrastructure.
Two private properties were damaged
in Turove, and four private houses and
utility buildings were damaged in Kovali.
Strikes with guided aerial bombs
were launched outside the villages
of Zavodske, Petrivka, and Udy,
with no reported destruction.
A civilian vehicle was damaged
by an explosive dropped
from a drone in Kupiansk.
Civilian infrastructure in Kozacha Lopan
sustained damage from Russian strikes.
Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled seven
Russian attacks in the Kupiansk sector."
"Ukraine
Shelling in the Kherson region
damaged 10 civilian structures
and injured seven civilians.
The Russian forces targeted settlements
using artillery and drones."
"Western Sahara
The Sahrawi People's Liberation Army
(SPLA) reported that its forces conducted
artillery attacks on Moroccan military
positions in the Ashrak Lghrab area of
the Guelta sector of Western Sahara.
The SPLA stated that the attacks
resulted in casualties and
damage to Moroccan equipment."
Political Conflict
"Democratic Republic of Congo
On Tuesday, a Congolese military tribunal
in the town of Lubero sentenced 13
soldiers to death on charges including
murder, looting, and cowardice."
"Philippines
14 New Peopleâs Army (NPA)
rebels, including two leaders,
surrendered to government
forces in Bukidnon on Wednesday.
The rebels turned over a cache of weapons
and explosives, including grenades,
rifles, shotguns, and ammunition."
Civil Unrest
"West Bank
A man was injured in a
rock-throwing attack on an Israeli
bus in the northern West Bank.
He was taken to a hospital for treatment.
The bus was also damaged.
The suspects escaped."
Weapons
"Russia
Syria's former dictator, Bashar
al-Assad, was allegedly poisoned
in an assassination attempt.
He and his family have fled to Russia,
where they are staying in Moscow.
The relationship between Assad and
Russian President Putin is described
as ""chilly."" Reports suggest
that Assad fell ill, experiencing
difficulty breathing, coughing,
choking, headaches, and stomach pains.
Medics were called, and
Assad's condition deteriorated.
The Kremlin was informed and
ordered treatment at home.
Assad's health is now stable, but blood
tests show traces of a toxic substance.
An investigation is underway to determine
how he was exposed to the poison."
Accidents
"Syria
A child in Al-Salihiya Town in SDF-held
areas of Deir Ezzor was severely
injured and had his leg amputated in a
landmine explosion while herding sheep.
He has been taken to a
hospital for treatment."
"Tunisia
On Thursday, the Tunisian National Guard
reported that the Coast Guard recovered
the bodies of 27 African migrants after
two boats sank off the coast of Sfax.
The Coast Guard rescued 87 other
migrants from the sinking boats."
"United States
Train cars carrying corn derailed
near Lima, but there were no injuries
or hazardous materials involved.
Roush Road is expected to reopen on
Thursday after the derailment is cleared.
The cause of the derailment
is being investigated."
"United States
Eleven people were injured when a
small plane crashed into a commercial
building in Fullerton, California.
The crash caused a fire
and damaged the warehouse.
It is unclear whether the injured
were on the plane or the ground.
The plane crashed shortly after takeoff
from the Fullerton Municipal Airport."
"United States
A small plane crashed into a commercial
building in Fullerton, Orange County,
on Thursday, resulting in the deaths
of 2 people and injuries to 18 others.
The incident occurred at 2:09 p.m.
and was followed by a fire, which
firefighters and police battled.
Surrounding businesses were evacuated."
Other Events
"Israel
An Israeli resident of Petah Tikva
has been indicted for carrying
out missions on behalf of Iran
that harmed national security.
Alexander Granovsky, 29, is charged with
being in contact with a foreign agent,
handing information to the enemy, and
committing vandalism and arson offenses.
He received money from the Iranian agent
and engaged in activities such as filming
security facilities, spray-painting
political messages, and torching cars.
Granovsky was asked to purchase
weapons, film specific"
"United States
A Pennsylvania man and former US
Army soldier, Jack Danaher Molloy,
has been indicted for attempting
to support Lebanon's Hezbollah and
making false statements to the FBI.
Molloy, a dual citizen of the US and
Ireland, traveled to Lebanon and Syria
in 2024 to join Hezbollah, a designated
foreign terrorist organization.
After returning to the US, he continued
his attempts to join the group and
promoted hatred and violence against Jews.
Molloy lied to the FBI about his
intentions and was arrested in Chicago.
If convicted, he could face up to 20
years in prison for material support and
up to eight years for false statements."
Thanks for joining us for the January
3, 2025 Geopolitical Report Daily.
As a reminder, complete reports with
casualty information, interactive
web maps, and our IntelHub dashboard
are available with a Geopolitical
Report Pro subscription, which you
can try with a seven-day-free-trial
at www.geopolitical.report.
Don't forget to tune in again
tomorrow for the most recent
events from around the world.