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Welcome back to the deep dive. It is Wednesday, 02/25/2026.
Penny:The morning after the State of the Union.
Roy:The morning after. Yeah. And the dust is definitely still settling from last night. If your social feeds look anything like mine due this morning, there's really only one topic on the table.
Penny:Right. The rate payer protection pledge. It is dominating the entire news cycle today.
Roy:Dominating is the word for it. The president dropped this, I guess you'd call it a bombshell during the SOTU, and he is heavily framing it as the silver bullet for the whole AI energy crisis.
Penny:Yeah, the pitch is incredibly seductive, have to admit.
Roy:Oh, absolutely. The headline pitch is basically big tech wants to build the AI future. Fantastic. They can pay for the electricity to run it.
Penny:He can build their own power plants. That was the line that got the massive standing ovation.
Roy:Right. The whole bring your own generation concept, BYOG. And I mean, the average person watching this, you know, my parents, the folks in my neighborhood group chat, this sounds like a massive undeniable win.
Penny:It sounds like common sense.
Roy:Exactly. We got the tech boom. We supposedly beat China and this global AI arms race, but Amazon and Microsoft have to build their own generators so that, you know, your grandma's electric bill doesn't suddenly triple.
Penny:On the surface, it really does look like the administration finally stood up to big tech.
Roy:It really does. And if you are only reading the press releases this morning or if you're just watching the standard clips on the morning shows, that is absolutely the story you are getting.
Penny:Because it's presented as this clean, unified, bipartisan victory. You've got 13 governors signing on.
Roy:Yeah. Including heavy hitter Democrats like Josh Shapiro over in Pennsylvania. They all signed this statement of principles. Yeah. It looks like a completely done deal.
Penny:But of course we are not here today to just read you press releases.
Roy:No, we are not. We are here because we got our hands on a stack of source material that strongly suggests this pledge might actually be, well it might be the most sophisticated piece of economic sleight of hand we have seen in a decade.
Penny:Sleight of hand is a very polite way to put it honestly.
Roy:Fair enough. So let's get into the sources. We are working primarily today from a new dossier generated by the AGI Roundtable. Right. And specifically this is an internal analysis from a persona named Hunter.
Roy:Now for the listeners who maybe haven't heard us reference this group on the deep dive before, we really need to explain what exactly we are looking at here. This is not just a standard think tank white paper.
Penny:No, not at all. So the AGI Roundtable is this high level consulting group and they use highly specialized AI personas to model complex intersecting systems.
Roy:We're talking political systems, economic, social,
Penny:of it. Exactly. And they have different personas for different analytical lenses. They have a visionary logician persona. But Hunter Hunter is very different.
Roy:Yeah. Hunter is wild.
Penny:He is modeled as what they call a gonzo systems thinker. His entire programmed function is to track narrative warfare and political economic risk.
Roy:So his job is basically to ignore the PR entirely.
Penny:Completely ignore it. He's designed to ignore what politicians and CEOs say and look exclusively at the mechanism. Where is the money moving? Who holds the physical assets? Who holds the liability?
Roy:And I was reading his memo late last night after the speech and Hunter does not mince words at all. He explicitly calls the ratepayer protection pledge a scam on the scale of Watergate.
Penny:Which is a phrase that just stops you right in your tracks. I mean, Watergate was a literal burglary. It was political espionage.
Roy:Right. So I wanna challenge that immediate assertion right out of the gate. We have to look at this impartially. Watergate was about stealing an election or covering up political dirty tricks. How on earth does an energy infrastructure pledge equate to Watergate?
Penny:Well, Hunter's core argument, and again, we are just reporting his analysis here, is that while Watergate was a theft of political power, what we are looking at today is a theft of infrastructure power.
Roy:Okay. Unpack that a bit.
Penny:He argues that we are witnessing a massive, highly deliberate diversion of public wealth. The goal is to build a completely private energy grid for oligarchs and hyperscalers while leaving the public, meaning you and me, holding the bag for all the financial and environmental risks.
Roy:So a shift from a public utility model to what he calls a predatory extraction model.
Penny:Exactly. The report is basically screaming that this is outrageous and the public needs to understand what's actually happening behind the curtain.
Roy:It is a terrifying premise if it's true. So let's test it. Our mission today is to strip away the theater of last night's speech and look at the actual physical mechanics of the grid.
Penny:Because you have to understand the distinction between the theater and the mechanism.
Roy:Right. The theater is the speech. The theater is the president saying, we are protecting your wallet.
Penny:But the mechanism is the actual rule changes happening right now at the grid operator level, specifically within PJM, which is the massive regional transmission organization for the Mid Atlantic.
Roy:Okay, so Hunter identifies three very specific mechanisms in this GRYFT, as he calls it. And the first one is this concept he labels the Susquehanna Keratox.
Penny:Or to use a more blunt term, asset stripping.
Roy:Asset stripping. Let's drill deep into this because the administration's line is, Hey Amazon, if you want power for your new AI data center, go build a power plant, bring your own generation. Why does Hunter say that's a paradox?
Penny:Because in practice out in the real world, bring your own generation has rapidly morphed into buy your generation, and there is a massive, massive difference between those two things.
Roy:Right. Building adds to the total pool. Buying just reallocates it.
Penny:Exactly. And you just have to look at the deal Amazon made with Talen Energy at the Susquehanna Nuclear Plant in Pennsylvania. Hunter points to this as the exact blueprint for everything happening under this new pledge.
Roy:So let's break down the actual physics of that deal because I feel like this is where the rubber really meets the road for the listener.
Penny:Okay. So Susquehanna is this massive existing nuclear facility. For decades now, it has pumped roughly 2.5 gigawatts of carbon free, always on baseload power directly into the PJM grid.
Roy:And PJM serves what? Like 65,000,000 people?
Penny:Yeah. Across 13 states and DC. So think of the public grid as a giant communal pool of water.
Roy:I love this analogy.
Penny:We all paid to build the pipes to get water from that pool to our houses. Susquehanna is basically a giant reliable hose that has been filling that pool up with clean water 20 fourseven.
Roy:And we, the public rate payers, we finance those transmission lines. We paid for those pipes to connect that specific nuclear plant to the grid decades ago. We basically paid for that reliability.
Penny:Correct. The public de risked that asset over decades. But now Amazon comes in. They want to build a massive new data center campus for AI training.
Roy:Which takes an unbelievable amount of electricity.
Penny:Right. So under the pure logic of the president's pledge, Amazon should have to build a brand new power plant to feed that new data center. Maybe a small modular reactor or a giant solar farm with massive battery backup.
Roy:But building new generation takes time.
Penny:It takes years, sometimes a decade for nuclear. And Amazon needs that power right now. They can't wait if they want to beat Microsoft and Google to AGI.
Roy:Right. The AI arms race does not respect construction permitting schedules.
Penny:Exactly. So instead of building new, they engaged in what the industry calls colocation. They physically built their data center right next door to the Susquehanna Nuclear Plant, and they signed a contract to divert that power before it ever hits the public grid.
Roy:Wow! So they are quite literally sticking a straw directly into the reactor and sucking out what is the number?
Penny:It started at nine sixty MW but it can potentially go up to nearly two GW. They are siphoning it off before it ever reaches the public communal pool.
Roy:Okay I immediately see the physical problem here. If Amazon takes a massive amount of clean water out of the pool before it even gets there the overall water level of the pool drops.
Penny:It drops significantly.
Roy:But regular people still need to take showers. The hospitals still need power. The residential demand hasn't gone down at all.
Penny:The demand from the public is exactly the same, if not growing. But suddenly a huge chunk of our cleanest, most reliable baseload power is just gone, vanished behind a private corporate fence.
Roy:So PJM, the grid operator, they have to scramble to make up that massive shortfall.
Penny:Right. And they can't just conjure a new nuclear plant out of thin air. To keep the grid frequency stable, to literally keep the lights from going out, they have to turn on the next available power plants in their queue.
Roy:And what are those plants usually? I I'm guessing they aren't state of the art green energy.
Penny:No. They are what we call marginal units, usually older, dirtier stuff. Coal plants that were scheduled to be retired or natural gas peaker
Roy:plants. Plants. Which are notoriously expensive to run.
Penny:Expensive to run and they spew a massive amount of carbon and local pollution. So look at the optics here. Amazon gets to proudly claim they are 100% green because they technically bought the output of a nuclear plant.
Roy:So their ESG reports look fantastic. Their shareholders are thrilled.
Penny:Right. But the grid as a whole, the grid that you and I rely on gets substantially dirtier and way more expensive. PJM has to fire up expensive dirty coal and gas to replace the cheap clean nuclear that Amazon essentially sequestered.
Roy:So the actual cost of Amazon's quote unquote green energy isn't just the check they wrote to Talend Energy for the planet.
Penny:Not
Roy:at all. The true cost is the increased pollution and the higher utility rates for every single other person on the grid who is now suddenly relying on volatile natural gas prices.
Penny:Which is exactly why Hunter calls this asset stripping. Big tech is coming in and privatizing the absolute best, most reliable, fully paid off assets at the grid, and they are socializing the pollution and the expensive replacement costs onto the middle class.
Roy:It's a corporate raid on public infrastructure.
Penny:But wait, doesn't the ratepayer protection pledge stop this? Mean, the president literally stood at the podium and said ratepayer protection.
Roy:Here is the genius of the framing. The pledge actually encourages this behavior.
Penny:Because the pledge simply says tech must provide for its own energy needs. Well, technically Amazon's lawyers can argue they are providing for their own needs by buying the output of that specific plant. The pledge does not explicitly say you must build brand new capacity, it just says you're on your own.
Roy:Oh wow, so if being on your own means cannibalizing the existing public infrastructure, the pledge is technically satisfied but the rate payer is totally screwed.
Penny:That is the massive loophole Hunter points out. It is a PR fig leaf.
Roy:That It's like the government saying, you have to bring your own lunch to the office today. So you just walk into the break room, reach into the communal fridge, and take the best sandwich that someone else spent hours making.
Penny:Perfect analogy. And then when HR complains, you point to the rules and say, Look, I didn't ask the cafeteria cook to make me anything new, I provided for myself.
Roy:That is deeply, deeply cynical. But okay, let's move to the second mechanism Hunter highlights in this dossier. Because if asset stripping wasn't bad enough, we have what he calls the transmission loophole.
Penny:Yes, the wires problem.
Roy:Right. Because the whole bring your own generation idea kind of implies that these new AI data centers are essentially islands, Right? Like, are off grid and completely independent.
Penny:Which makes sense intuitively. If I buy a diesel generator from my backyard, I don't really need the utility's power lines anymore. I'm self sufficient.
Roy:But a gigawatt scale data center is not a backyard generator.
Penny:These are mission critical infrastructure facilities for trillion dollar companies. They require what the industry calls five nines of reliability. 99.99% uptime.
Roy:Because if a massive AI training run gets interrupted by a power blip, it ruins weeks of work.
Penny:The financial losses are staggering. It breaks the training run. So think about it. If Amazon's private co located nuclear reactor trips offline for standard maintenance, which happens all the time Yeah. Reactors have to be refueled, they have safety scams, that data center absolutely cannot go dark.
Roy:So what do they do? They can't just have battery backup for a gigawatt?
Penny:No. They need a massive industrial scale backup. And that backup is the public transmission grid. They stay physically plugged into the wires.
Roy:Hunter calls this a free insurance policy in his notes.
Penny:That's exactly what it is. They lean on the public grid for voltage support, they lean on it for frequency regulation and critically they use it as an emergency backup They essentially get tier one reliability, the best, most robust grid insurance in the world.
Roy:But wait, if they aren't buying their daily power from the public grid because they are getting their juice from the nuclear plant right next door, they aren't paying the standard volume based transmission fees. Right? They aren't paying the toll on the highway because they claim they aren't driving on it.
Penny:They pay a tiny pittance compared to the massive physical load and stress they impose on the system. And here is where the data gets genuinely shocking.
Roy:Lay it on me.
Penny:We have data from Synapse Energy and Heatmap. PJM just approved roughly $11,800,000,000 in new transmission upgrades.
Roy:11,800,000,000.0. With a B.
Penny:With a B. And a huge chunk of that expansion is specifically designed to reinforce the grid in areas with extreme data center density. We're talking places like Northern Virginia, which is Data Center Alley, and parts of Ohio. They are building massive high voltage lines just to handle the strain of these tech hubs.
Roy:And who exactly pays that $11,800,000,000 bill?
Penny:Under the current rules in PJM, transmission costs are generally socialized across the entire system based on what's called a load ratio share.
Roy:Meaning the public pays for it.
Penny:Basically, if you are a residential or commercial customer anywhere on that grid, you pay a slice of that $11,000,000,000 in your monthly bill.
Roy:So even though these upgrades are largely necessary to support the massive influx of big tech data centers, the costs are spread out among the 67,000,000 regular people.
Penny:Yes. While the tech companies pay some fraction, the current regulatory structure allows them to offload a truly massive amount of that system reinforcement cost directly onto residential rate payers.
Roy:So to go back to my simple analogies, it is like I decide to build a massive private driveway for my fleet of commercial semi trucks, but I force the local town council to widen the public highway leading up to my driveway just in case my private road gets blocked and I need to reroute my trucks.
Penny:And not only do your residential neighbors have to pay for widening the highway, but when they complain about their taxes going up, you point to your shiny new private driveway and say, why are you mad? I built my own infrastructure. I'm an engine of job creation.'
Roy:It is maddening. You can really see why Hunter's persona is flagging this as a systemic risk. It's a massive will transfer.
Penny:And we haven't even gotten to the third mechanism yet.
Roy:Right, mechanism number three. One felt the most complex when I was reading the dossier this morning, but Hunter suggests this is where the actual multi billion dollar grift really happens. The emergency auction.
Penny:This is the payoff. If asset stripping is skimming off the top, the emergency auction is looting the vault.
Roy:Okay. Set the stage for this. PJM is facing a supply crisis right now.
Penny:A severe one. Because of the asset stripping we just talked about where clean power is walled off, combined with the mandated retirement of old, highly polluting coal plants, the overall grid is legitimately short on physical power. PJM recently reported they are roughly 5.2% short in their projected reserves for the upcoming capacity options.
Roy:And a 5% shortfall on a grid that size is a recipe for rolling blackouts during a heat wave or a polar vortex.
Penny:It's extremely dangerous. So under the guise of this national AI energy emergency, the White House working with these 13 governors, is heavily pushing PJM to bypass the normal competitive market rules.
Roy:And do what instead?
Penny:They want them to hold a special emergency reliability auction, or what the industry calls a backstop procurement mechanism, ideally by September 2026.
Roy:And whenever government officials use the word emergency, it usually means we're going to stop asking questions and start signing very large checks.
Penny:That is precisely what it means. The terms being proposed for this emergency auction are fifteen year guaranteed contracts.
Roy:Fifteen year?
Penny:Fifteen years.
Roy:Mhmm.
Penny:And they are structured as take or pay contracts.
Roy:Okay. We definitely need to define take or pay for the listener who isn't a commodities trader. What does that actually mean for the rate payer?
Penny:It means the government or rather the rate payer funneling money through the public utility completely guarantees the revenue for that new power plant for fifteen straight years regardless of whether the grid actually ends up needing that electricity later on.
Roy:Wait. So if the plant runs, the owners get paid. But if the plant just sits completely idle because say demand drops in five years, they still get paid.
Penny:They still get paid. The revenue is locked in. The public absorbs 100% of the market risk.
Roy:That is, I mean, that is incredibly generous to the That isn't a free market capitalism. That is a state sponsored handout.
Penny:It is the absolute golden ticket for fossil fuel developers. Because here is the reality of infrastructure construction. You cannot permit and build a nuclear plant in three years. It's impossible.
Roy:No. Of course not.
Penny:And you can't build wind and solar fast enough either. Mostly because the interconnection queues, the waiting list to physically plug a new solar farm into the grid are years long and totally jammed up.
Roy:Which Hunter argues is often deliberately jammed up by incumbent utilities but that's whole other rabbit hole.
Penny:Right. But the core fact remains the only type of massive power generation you can realistically build fast enough to meet a 2026 or 2027 emergency deadline is natural gas specifically large gas combustion turbines.
Roy:So this entire emergency auction wrapped in the PR of saving the AI industry is effectively a backdoor mechanism to lock in a massive multi decade build out of natural gas infrastructure.
Penny:Yes. Hunter's analysis argues this is the hidden primary goal of the entire pledge. The AI crisis is just the convenient pretext to force through a massive fleet of new fossil fuel plants that would otherwise be considered way too financially risky to build in the current energy transition climate.
Roy:Okay. Let's explore that risk. Why would a new gas plant be considered too risky to build normally in 2026? I thought we needed the power.
Penny:Because of what economists call the stranded asset risk. And this is the part of Hunter's memo that really gives you those dark two thousand and eight financial crisis vibes. Think about the nature of the AI industry itself. How long is a typical hardware cycle in AI?
Roy:Oh, it's incredibly fast. Eighteen to twenty four months, maybe? I mean, NVIDIA drops a new generation of chips and suddenly the old ones are completely obsolete.
Penny:Exactly.
Roy:And the efficiency gains with each new chip generation are massive. They can do way more compute with proportionally less power over time.
Penny:Right. So look at the mismatch in timelines here. We are rushing to build giant natural gas power plants with a forty year physical lifespan, and we are locking the public into paying for them with fifteen year guaranteed contracts.
Roy:Okay.
Penny:But we are building them to serve a tech industry that fundamentally reinvents itself every 24.
Roy:Oh wow. I see where this is going.
Penny:What happens if the massive AI bubble we are currently in bursts in say 2029?
Roy:Right. What if the language models hit a wall or they just become hyper efficient and suddenly power demand collapses back to normal levels?
Penny:The hyperscalers just close down the data centers or they vastly scale back their footprint. They write down the loss and move on.
Roy:But the public. We still signed a fifteen year contract for the gas plant that was built to power them.
Penny:We are still paying the mortgage on that plant until 2041.
Roy:Unbelievable. We still have to pay the toll.
Penny:We pay for the empty plant. Hunter calls this the ultimate risk transfer. The massive tech companies get the immediate cheap power they desperately need today to pump their stock prices and please the venture capitalists.
Roy:And the fossil fuel companies get guaranteed risk free revenue contracts for a decade and a half.
Penny:While the public gets handed the entire long term liability, we are effectively being forced to co sign a massive multi billion dollar loan for a highly volatile tech startup sector.
Roy:Okay that directly connects back to a Hunter's Watergate comparison. It is not just a standard theft of funds, it is a profound structural betrayal. It is sticking the public with the long term toxicity both the financial debt and the environmental pollution while the massive profits are privatized immediately by a few oligarchs.
Penny:It is the textbook definition of privatizing the profits and socializing the risks. It's the 2008 bank bailout playbook just applied to the physical electric grid.
Roy:Wow. Want to zoom out from the purely economic mechanics for a second and look at the political layer of this dossier. We mentioned earlier that this pledge involves something called the National Energy Dominance Council.
Penny:Yes.
Roy:This feels like a very strategic coordinated move not just a bunch of random economic loopholes. Who is actually running this council?
Penny:Hunter specifically points to two key figures: Interior Secretary Doug Burghum and Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Now Chris Wright is the really key figure to analyze here.
Roy:Because he's not a standard Washington bureaucrat. Yeah,
Penny:far from it. Before he took over the Department of Energy, he was the CEO of Liberty Energy. He is a literal fracking magnate. He made his fortune in oil and gas extraction.
Roy:So the fox is officially in charge of the hen house.
Penny:The fox isn't just in charge. The fox is actively renovating the hen house to optimize egg extraction for his buddies. Their stated mandate is energy dominance. They do not view this AI power crunch as a conservation problem to be solved with efficiency or smart grids.
Roy:How do they view it?
Penny:They view it as a weapon. They want astronomically high power demand.
Roy:Because high demand justifies their core business model.
Penny:Exactly. Skyrocketing demand justifies more domestic drilling. It justifies pushing through new gas pipelines that are previously blocked. And crucially, it justifies rapidly rolling back EPA environmental regulations.
Roy:And the AGI dossier actually cites specific environmental rollbacks that are happening right now, doesn't it? I saw something in there from the Sierra Club.
Penny:Yes. The Sierra Club recently published reports showing that the administration is actively rolling back federal protections against mercury, arsenic, and lead emissions.
Roy:Specifically to help data centers.
Penny:Specifically to keep ancient, highly polluting coal plants online in places like Tennessee and Pennsylvania. Plants that were legally scheduled to be demolished because they were too toxic are now being granted emergency reprieves so they can burn coal to feed AI data centers.
Roy:That is just incredibly grim. We are literally trading baseline public health outcomes. We're accepting increased asthma rates in kids, more heavy metals in the local water supply just to generate more compute power.
Penny:As Hunter phrased it in his notes, it's a literal trade. Lungs for LLMs.
Roy:Lungs for LLMs. That is a brutal way to frame it, but the math seems to back it up.
Penny:And this entire dynamic creates what Hunter warns is the ultimate dystopian endgame of this pledge. He calls it the two tiered grid.
Roy:Okay, paint that picture for us. What exactly does a two tiered grid look like in everyday life?
Penny:Imagine two completely separate electrical grids running side by side in the same country. Grid A is the oligarch grid. This grid powers the massive AI data centers, the hyperscalers, the tech elite.
Roy:And what powers Grid A?
Penny:Grid A gets to use the clean, co located nuclear plants. It gets the brand new guaranteed natural gas turbines. It features gold plated, state of the art transmission lines. It essentially never goes down. It is entirely immune to extreme weather events because it has routing and unlimited capital.
Roy:And I'm guessing grid b is for the rest of us.
Penny:Grid b is the public grid. It relies entirely on the leftovers. It gets the crumbling 60 year old coal plants. It gets the congested, decaying transmission lines that spark wildfires.
Roy:And when supply gets tight.
Penny:Grid B gets the demand response calls. Meaning, during a massive heat wave in August, your smart thermostat automatically throttles your air conditioning down or your neighborhood gets hit with rolling blackouts specifically so that Amazon's data center can keep cooling its servers without interruption.
Roy:So we fundamentally become second class citizens on our own infrastructure. Infrastructure that our grandparents paid to build.
Penny:Exactly. Hunter puts it absolutely brutally in his conclusion. He says, We're letting them build a private luxury lifeboat using public timber, and then they are going to sail away while we frantically patch the leaks in the Titanic.
Roy:God, that imagery is really hard to shake. It makes the whole situation feel inevitable. But there was a mention in the sources of an alternative proposal, right? Something pushed by environmental groups called Beyonce.
Penny:Yeah, the Beyonce Plan, it's a great acronym, it stands for Bring Your Own New Clean Energy.
Roy:Which logically makes perfect sense. If you are Google or Microsoft and your entire corporate brand is about being carbon negative by 2030, why aren't you just building massive new offshore wind farms or next generation geothermal plants to power your AI?
Penny:Well, they want to. Or at least in their polished marketing materials and sustainability reports, they certainly claim they want to. But here is the harsh reality check of the current supply chain.
Roy:What's stopping them?
Penny:The physical backlog. First you have the interconnection queue we mentioned, which is years of bureaucratic red tape just to plug a green project into the grid. But even if you bypass that, the actual manufacturers of the generation equipment are maxed out.
Roy:Like the companies that built the turbines.
Penny:Right. If you go to GE Vernova today and try to order a massive suite of new clean power turbines, the backlog is three to four years long.
Roy:Wow.
Penny:Tech companies literally cannot build new green energy fast enough to meet the current frantic demand curve of the AI arms race.
Roy:So even if they genuinely wanted to be green, the physical constraints of reality forced them back to fossil fuels.
Penny:Exactly. And the administration knows this. They're actively blocking the clean energy transition in favor of what they call dispatchable power, which is just Washington code for natural gas and coal. So the B on C option is basically dead in the water because the regulators will not let it swim.
Roy:This brings up a huge question for me. Is anyone actually fighting this legally? I know we mentioned governor Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania signed this statement of principles, but he's usually seen as a pretty staunch consumer advocate. Right? Didn't he literally sue PJM in the past over rate hikes?
Penny:He did. Shapiro is walking an incredibly precarious political tightrope right now.
Roy:Why sign on to something that Hunter says will fleece his constituents?
Penny:Because he desperately wants the economic boom. He wants the thousands of construction jobs or at least the promise of those jobs that come with being designated a national tech hub. Pennsylvania has the legacy gas and the nuclear plants, so he sees a massive influx of corporate investment.
Roy:But surely his team knows about the stranded asset risk and the rate hikes.
Penny:He is smart enough to know the ratepayer risk is real. The fundamental problem is, under the current framework of the president's pledge, you cannot have it both ways.
Roy:You have to choose.
Penny:Right. You cannot legally give Amazon dirt cheap exclusive nuclear power and simultaneously protect grandma's fixed income utility rates. The physical math of the grid simply does not work. You are either socializing the cost or you are capping tech's growth. And right now, politicians are choosing to protect tech.
Roy:Okay. But what about the courts? Are there any legal challenges to this from outside the political sphere?
Penny:Yes. There are. There's a prominent energy lawyer named Ham Hunt, ironically, no relation to our AI persona, Hunter, and he runs a firm called Dream Big LLC.
Roy:What's his angle?
Penny:He is actively organizing a massive multistate litigation strategy. He plans to sue the individual state utility commissions that approve these sweetheart deals.
Roy:On what legal grounds?
Penny:On the grounds of just and reasonable rates. By federal and state law, public utility rates must be just and reasonable. Hunt's legal argument is that if you can mathematically prove that everyday residential customers are actively subsidizing a trillion dollar hyperscalers private infrastructure, that is a clear violation of the just and reasonable standard. It's illegal.
Roy:That makes sense. But, lawsuits in the energy sector take years to litigate. They move at a glacial pace. And the data center construction is happening right now, today.
Penny:And that right there is exactly why the ratepayer protection pledge was announced as a voluntary statement of principles and not a binding executive order.
Roy:Oh, wow. Wait. Explain the legal distinction there for me.
Penny:It is brilliant dark strategy. If president Trump sat at the resolute desk and signed a formal executive order legally mandating this cost shifting, environmental groups like Public Citizen and the Sierra Club could sue the White House in federal court the very next morning to file an injunction and stop it.
Roy:Because an executive order is a tangible legal action.
Penny:Exactly. But by framing it as a voluntary pledge, a handshake agreement between the administration, the governors, and big tech, it is incredibly difficult to challenge in court right now.
Roy:Because there's no actual law to challenge yet.
Penny:Right. You have to wait until a specific utility actually signs a specific contract and raises the weights. It is strategic ambiguity. It's a handshake deal that moves at the speed of business completely bypassing the regulatory slow lane.
Roy:It is remarkably effective. So let's pull all these threads together. We have the underlying mechanics, the asset stripping of our nuclear plants, the hidden transmission tax on the public, and the long term fifteen year lock in of fossil fuel contracts. Yep. And we have the brilliant political cover of a non binding pledge that avoids immediate lawsuits.
Roy:The ultimate question is why now? Why push this incredibly aggressive agenda so hard in February 2026?
Penny:It comes down to two overlapping fears driving Washington right now. First, obviously, is the intense fear of China.
Roy:The AI arms race.
Penny:The administration genuinely believes that artificial general intelligence is the atomic bomb of the twenty first century. They believe whoever gets to AGI first achieves permanent geopolitical dominance, and they are clearly willing to break the domestic energy grid to ensure America gets there first.
Roy:Then the second fear.
Penny:The fear of the blackout. The administration knows The US public grid is crumbling. They know it needs an estimated $2,000,000,000,000 in structural upgrades over the next decade just to survive normal weather patterns, let alone AI.
Roy:And they know Congress will never appropriate $2,000,000,000,000 for infrastructure.
Penny:Never. So they have essentially decided to use the massive tech giants as their private financiers.
Roy:By selling off the grid.
Penny:They are effectively selling off the best parts of the public grid to big tech in exchange for big tech, providing the immediate capital to build new plants and upgrade the wires.
Roy:But the crucial catch is that those upgrades are almost exclusively serving the tech companies themselves.
Penny:That is the ultimate tragedy of it. They are selling the family house to pay for much needed renovations but the contract lets the new buyer live in the master bedroom while the original family is forced to sleep out in the unheated garage and still pay the property taxes.
Roy:Man when you synthesize it all like that it completely recontextualizes the headline of the speech, Ratepayer Protection Pledge. When you hear it on TV it sounds like a shield, it sounds like the government is looking out for the little guy but based on Hunter's entire analysis in this dossier it is absolutely not a shield.
Penny:It's not a shield at all, it is a protection racket.
Roy:Yeah, it's the mob showing up at your door, nice grid you have there. It'd be a real shame if it suddenly went dark this summer.
Penny:Exactly. Sign this fifteen year guaranteed gas contract, ignore the mercury in your local water supply, and we will make sure the lights stay on for your house. But if you don't sign it, well, good luck fighting off China in the dark.
Roy:That is a deeply sobering place to land. But it is exactly why we do this show. We need to look past the press releases. So before we sign off today, let's concisely synthesize this into the key takeaways. For the listener who needs to explain this at a dinner table tonight, we need to be crystal clear.
Penny:I'd say there are three main points to take away from the AGI report. One, the pledge is a complete misnomer. It does not stop costs from shifting to the middle class. It simply hides those costs inside complex grid transmission fees and deferred stranded asset risks.
Roy:Two, it is functionally a mechanism to fast track fossil fuel expansion. It uses the panic of an AI emergency to entirely bypass environmental reviews and lock the public into funding natural gas plants for the next fifteen years.
Penny:And three, it privatizes the absolute best public assets, the Susquehanna Paradox. Tech companies get the clean, reliable nuclear power, while the general public gets the price volatility and the toxic pollution of the replacement coal and gas.
Roy:It is a massive structural wealth transfer masked as technological innovation.
Penny:And remember, we are the ones underwriting the entire risk of that innovation. If the AI bubble pops in three years, the tech billionaires walk away fine and we are left paying the mortgage on hundreds of empty power plants.
Roy:Hunter actually left us with a final really provocative question at the very end of his dossier and I think it is the only appropriate way to end this deep dive.
Penny:What was it?
Roy:He wrote quote, If this current trajectory implies a near future where we literally have two grids, one pristine grid for the AI's that run the economy and one decaying grid for the humans who simply live in it, which grid do you honestly think will get the repair trucks when the next massive superstorm hits? End quote.
Penny:Really says it all. When you look at your utility bill next month, you have to ask yourself, are you just paying for your daily electricity, or are you actively financing your own replacement?
Roy:Keep your eyes on the wires everyone, this story is definitely not over. Thanks for listening to the deep dive.
Penny:Stay informed.