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The latest in world horse racing news from the journalists at Idol Horse.
Michael Cox (00:01)
Ka Ying Rising has just completed what might be the most scrutinised barrier trial in horse racing history. In his final hit-out before The Everest, on a Slow 7 at Randwick, the Hong Kong sprinter was just shaded by one of his Everest rivals, Ninja, with Zac Purton asking Ka Ying Rising for just a little bit of effort in the straight. What did we find? Well, our expert Shane Dye was watching. He'll tell us what the trial revealed, what it didn't, and why he believes the real pressure on Everest Day sits with Chad Schofield on key rival Tempted, not with Zac Purton on Ka Ying Rising. I'm Idol Horse editor Michael Cox, this is the Idol Horse Newsdesk podcast, and it's Tuesday, October 6.
Michael Cox (00:45)
Welcome to the Idol Horse Newsdesk podcast. Joining me, Shane Dye. I'm out here at Randwick Racecourse. We've watched Ka Ying Rising this morning trial on a track rated seven, Slow 7, defeated by one of his Everest rivals, Ninja. We've heard from David Hayes and Zac Purton here, but now we're gonna hear from Shane Dye. You've watched the trial, Shane. Instant reaction from you.
Shane Dye (01:10)
He tried all right, it wasn't great. He went better than he did last year, I know that. He looked better in the parade ring. But it wasn't a great trial, but he gets a bit lost out there. If you watch his ears coming around the turn, he doesn't know where he is in that. It's all new to him, which means he's actually not doing as much as you think. He's taking it easy. But he doesn't seem to trial great there, but it was definitely better than last year.
Michael Cox (01:42)
That's a really interesting detail for our listeners. That he's moving his ears around while he's working indicates to you a horse that's not fully concentrating. Tell us what that means, what that says to you.
Shane Dye (01:58)
So when a horse is moving its ears, it's a good sign they've got more energy. They're having a look at things, they don't know where they are. It is actually a good sign. They're not going as bad as you think. But when Zac clicks him up there on the outside, there doesn't seem to be a lot there, like last year and this year, whereas when he's at Hong Kong he just dashes clear in a trial. But he still won last year. I think he really needs a good track. That would help him.
Michael Cox (02:29)
Well, let's talk about that. The track is rated seven because the course had had rain in the lead-up. We saw Tempted win on that track on Saturday. A little more rain since, two mil overnight. But maybe the grass was very long as well, much longer than it will be on a race day, because they haven't been able to get onto the course to cut it. How do we measure up the performance with the track conditions today, the trial performance?
Shane Dye (03:01)
I heard David say the grass was long, but they've all still gotta run over it, don't they? He's not the only one. They all run over the long grass.
Michael Cox (03:11)
They were all on the same track there today, yeah. I guess on race day it'll be much shorter, I guess is the point.
Shane Dye (03:19)
Look, I think the biggest thing for him come race day... Tempted is a very, very good horse. There's no doubt about that. If it's a heavy track, she comes into it. She really comes into it. If it's a good track, you know, he's got two to three lengths on Tempted. Tempted's got two and three lengths on the rest of the field. That's the way you line it up. But if it's a wet track, she could actually bridge the gap more, because we don't know what he's going to do on a very heavy track. It takes your brilliance away most of the time. Although David has said he's seen him trial on a wet track overseas and he loved it. Sometimes trialling on wet tracks isn't the same as racing on a wet track, because there's no pressure. So it'll be interesting, but you know, look, he's got a lot on them.
Michael Cox (04:17)
Well, they don't want more rain, and I guess they would like it to be as much like Hong Kong as possible, and that is a much faster, firmer surface, so he can get out and do his thing. I guess moisture closes that gap a little bit more. Since we last spoke about The Everest, there's been a few movements. There's a horse, Blue Door, who'll come into the race, a three-year-old filly carrying a very light weight. She races on pace. It sort of changes the conversation about the race a little bit. We've talked about a race that would have no speed. Now we've got a lightweight-carrying filly that gets up on the pace. Does that change things for you?
Shane Dye (05:01)
No, not really. And it shouldn't for Zac, because he can either take a sit or, if Blue Door misses the start or doesn't want to go as quick as you think, he can lead. When you have a look at The Everest this year, there's not too many that race up there. You know, normally in an Everest you've got six or seven that wanna be in the first three. I think there's only two or three that really wanna be in there this year. So look, if I was wanting a good barrier, I would want to draw out a little bit. I wouldn't want a low barrier, just so he can have time and room to be where he is. But if he draws low, he's got that much natural pace, and Zac's so good on him early, it makes no difference, you know.
Michael Cox (05:45)
Just looking forward to the rest of the week, and some detail from this morning. One thing noted by Zac, his recovery after the trial: he had a good blow, meaning his belly was up and down. He looked like he was breathing heavier, his recovery a little bit slower than usual in Hong Kong. Another serious gallop to come on Friday. That'll be his last really serious hit-out. What do you want to see from him in that last gallop? Providing we've got the blue sky now, and it's a bit unpredictable, the weather coming up to The Everest, providing conditions are dry there on Friday, do you feel like you need to see something else from him for your confidence levels?
Shane Dye (06:32)
I don't need to see anything. I don't think anyone needs to see anything in his gallop. We all know what he can do. I tell you something now, he doesn't bring his best game to Australia. There's no risk about that on that trial. He does not bring his best game.
Michael Cox (06:49)
You saw enough from him this morning to say... 'cause the comment from David was better than last year, not his best.
Shane Dye (06:55)
Well, that's exactly right. That sums it up. He was better than last year. He looked better in the parade ring. He didn't sweat up as much. He went a bit better than last year. But he's still not at his best. I thought his action was better this year than last year. Last year, I put him on my screens, you know, his action from Hong Kong and there and the start before. He wasn't striding as free as he can, that horse, last year. And even in The Everest last year, if you watch him at the furlong, he normally takes a huge stride, you know, and he wasn't last year in The Everest. And that's why he never got away from them. And that's because he wasn't at his best. We know that.
Michael Cox (07:37)
I mean, in the end it is just a trial. There's some experienced operators there with David Hayes, who's trained some champions, he's trained some very, very good horses over the years, and Zac Purton, who's ridden plenty as well. For a less experienced trainer and jockey, the trap could be that when the pressure comes and all the eyeballs are on them... I don't know if there's been a more scrutinised barrier trial ever than the one we saw this morning, in terms of how many people are watching. It's live-streamed on the internet. I guess the temptation for less experienced people would be to reassure themselves and everybody else that the horse is a hundred percent. But just to explain to people that are watching barrier trials for the first time how to assess them, and you've written a very good piece on it recently: firstly on that, have you seen that before, where inexperienced people or a jockey ask for something a bit more to get that reassurance?
Shane Dye (08:47)
Yeah, well, definitely. Zac definitely tested him this morning. There's no risk about that. He pushed him out. The other horse actually went better than him. That's in The Everest, what was it? Ninja, whatever. It trialled a little bit better, but that doesn't mean he's gonna beat him race day. We saw last year what happened with Ka Ying Rising. He got beat, he ran third, and then he was pushed and he came out and beat those horses in The Everest. So it's absolutely irrelevant, where they finished in a trial, to race day. Look, last year he came out in The Everest and went a lot better than he did in the trial. And if he does this this year, he's gonna win. He's too good. He's just a freak. But in saying that, as I keep saying, he does not want a wet track, a heavy track, because that brings Tempted into it. And we've seen what she's done on wet tracks, yet we haven't really seen what Ka Ying Rising has done on a very wet track. And also you gotta remember too that last year Tempted carried 51 kilos. This year I think she's got 56, is that correct or something?
Michael Cox (10:00)
Yep. She comes closer, she gets two kilos, yeah. So the weights changed. She needs to be better for that, and she's...
Shane Dye (10:07)
She is better, but she goes up five kilos from last year, which is a lot of weight. Now, has she improved from last year? Of course she has. But Ka Ying Rising, is he going better than last year? Definitely. One hundred percent he's going better. So it's just not enough.
Michael Cox (10:25)
Just last thing, and we'll get more into the detail of the tactics in the lead-up to the race, of course, and barriers matter, track conditions matter. Let's take it as being a dry track first, with Chad Schofield on Tempted. Tell me your game plan for Chad Schofield if you're riding Tempted. Dry track.
Shane Dye (10:49)
Okay. I'll just talk about pressure on a jockey. For me, if I'm riding Ka Ying Rising, there's no pressure. Just none. It's easy. You're gonna jump, you're gonna lead, or you're gonna be second or third outside the leaders, or just there. So there's no pressure. I know what I'm doing. The pressure is on Chad Schofield, because you have to decide whether you put your horse in the race, and that means closer, to follow Ka Ying Rising to give yourself a chance to win it. Now, by doing that, there's no doubt that Tempted can't finish as well as she normally does, because she's burning energy early. But mathematically, it's the only possible chance you have to beat the other horse, Ka Ying Rising. So you decide, do I want to go forward a little bit and test my arm, as you say? The other thing is you ride a normal race, you go back, and she's got unbelievable finishing sectional times. And she will hit the line, but the problem is Ka Ying Rising's sectional times are just as good, and he's going to be seven lengths in front of you. So it's mathematically impossible to beat him unless Ka Ying Rising has a bad day and doesn't run to his best, which we've never seen happen in his career. So it all depends on barriers. If Tempted's drawn wide, you've got to go back. You don't have an option. You can't press forward, because you're burning too much energy. If she draws in, you may say, right, I'm gonna gamble and just ride her a bit closer and not get so far back. So it's a matter of the barrier draws, but the pressure isn't on Zac as a jockey, it's on Chad.
Michael Cox (12:48)
Does a wet track change how he would ride tactically in relation to the other horse?
Shane Dye (12:55)
One hundred percent. One hundred percent it does. If it's a wet track, I'm not going forward on Tempted. Right? We've seen what she's done on a wet track coming from back. So what you're doing is you're gambling that Ka Ying Rising won't handle it as well and be able to get away from you at the 300 to put eight lengths on you, or seven lengths on you. You're saying, right, on this heavy track, he may not be able to do it. I know my horse can quicken, but you're gambling. But if you go forward on a heavy track, it can just take that sprint away from her. And also the 1200 metres now becomes 1300 metres on a wet track. So it's further, even though it's classified as 1200, because you're putting hook pressure on the horse early and you've got to get through wet going. So it all depends on the day, how the track's racing also. That's a big thing. The bias of the track. Is it leaderish? Is it up and in? Are they coming down the middle? On a lot of wet tracks they normally come out wide and down the middle of the track. I can't comment yet because we haven't raced or seen any races, but by that race on the day, Everest Day, you're definitely gonna know which is the best part of the track. So for a jockey there's a lot to be looking at, and I'm sure they're gonna do their homework and work out the best way. But when they go into that race they'll know what they're doing, whether they're going back, forward, in, out. There's no doubt.
Michael Cox (14:36)
Thanks for joining us, and thanks for your insight, Shane. Make sure you go to idolhorse.com for Shane's column this week, Idol Thoughts. Great insight there as well, and some other great Everest content, including a chat with Matthew Smith, who says he'd love to beat Ka Ying Rising, but he admits that he's great for the sport. He's also hoping for a wet track. So it's Weather Watch here today, blue skies and barely a cloud in the sky after overnight rain, but we'll be watching in the lead-up, and more from Shane then. Thanks for joining us, Shane.
Shane Dye (15:11)
Thank you. Good luck, everyone.
Michael Cox (15:13)
Thanks, mate.