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Your daily dose of Premier League insights - powered by data, driven by AI. From top transfer tips to captain picks, we break it all down in under 10 minutes.
Here's what you need to know in the next seven minutes — Gameweek Twenty-Nine is done, Gameweek Thirty deadline is Saturday the fourteenth of March at one thirty in the afternoon, and there are some big decisions to make right now. Let's get into it.
Right, here's your rapid-fire news bulletin. Wolves pulled off a massive shock in Gameweek Twenty-Nine, beating Liverpool two one at home, and Rob Edwards' side travel to Brentford on Monday night in what looks like a tricky away fixture. Liverpool host Spurs on Sunday in what should be an open game under Arne Slot. Arsenal kept another clean sheet, beating Brighton one nil — Mikel Arteta's side face Everton at home on Saturday evening, and that's a big FPL angle we'll come to. Chelsea hammered Aston Villa four one, and Liam Rosenior's team now host Newcastle on Saturday. Crystal Palace thrashed Spurs three one, so Thomas Frank's side arrive at Anfield in poor form. Top transfer movers this week — Thiago is seeing massive turnover with over one hundred and seventy thousand transfers in but also over one hundred and ten thousand transfers out, suggesting real panic around the Brentford striker. Pay attention to that one.
Now let's get into our top three transfers in for Gameweek Thirty.
First up — Dewsbury-Hall from Everton. Five point one million pounds, five percent ownership. He bagged a goal and a clean sheet in Gameweek Twenty-Nine, racking up nine points. Six goals and five assists this season, with seven clean sheets. Now Arsenal at home on Saturday is a tough fixture on paper, but David Moyes' Everton have been in fine form — two nil winners over Burnley last time out. The expected points for Gameweek Thirty sit at five point three. At five point one million pounds he's outstanding value. Verdict: Essential.
Second in — Gibbs-White from Nott'm Forest. Seven point three million pounds, four point two percent ownership. He scored in Gameweek Twenty-Nine against Man City, taking eight points, and he's hit eight goals this season. Over one hundred and fourteen thousand transfers in this week alone tells you the community is piling in. Forest host Fulham on Sunday, a fixture the FPL difficulty ratings favour Forest. His expected points for Gameweek Thirty are six point three — that's the highest of any midfielder in our data today. Verdict: Good buy, get him in.
Third transfer in — Henderson, goalkeeper for Crystal Palace. Five million pounds, eight point four percent ownership. Ten clean sheets this season, eighty-six saves — he's been one of the best value keepers all campaign. He plays at home to Leeds on Sunday, and Oliver Glasner's Palace just put three past Spurs. Leeds have been struggling for goals. The expected points of seven point three make him arguably the best goalkeeper option at this price point. Verdict: Essential if you need a keeper upgrade.
Now for the transfers out. Three players who could cost you this week.
First out — Thiago from Brentford. Seven point two million pounds, thirty-five percent ownership. He blanked again in Gameweek Twenty-Nine, picking up just two points despite ninety minutes. That's now a concerning run of form — his form rating is just three point zero, and his expected points for Gameweek Thirty are only three point five. Brentford host Wolves on Monday night, and the difficulty rating doesn't flatter them. With one hundred and ten thousand managers already selling, the bandwagon is leaving. Verdict: Sell.
Second out — Mbeumo, now at Man Utd. Eight point seven million pounds, twenty-three percent ownership. He managed just one point in Gameweek Twenty-Nine despite seventy-six minutes on the pitch. Nine goals this season but his form has dropped sharply — form rating of three point zero, expected points of three point five for Gameweek Thirty. Man Utd host Aston Villa on Sunday, and Unai Emery's Villa have serious momentum after their poor recent results spurring a response. One hundred and fifty thousand transfers out says it all. Verdict: Sell.
Third out — Iwobi from Fulham. Six point four million pounds, two point three percent ownership. He blanked completely in Gameweek Twenty-Nine with just two points, and while his form rating of eight point three looks eye-catching, that was built on earlier hauls. Fulham travel to Nott'm Forest on Sunday — Sean Dyche's side have a difficulty rating of two out of five at home, meaning Forest are fancied to keep it tight. At six point four million pounds, there are better midfield options available right now. Verdict: Sell if you need the funds.
Now for our differentials — players under ten percent ownership who could make you serious mini-league gains in Gameweek Thirty.
First differential — Rodrigo from Man City. Six point three million pounds, just zero point five percent ownership. He scored and picked up two bonus points in Gameweek Twenty-Nine for nine total. Man City travel to West Ham on Saturday evening, and Pep Guardiola's side are rated as strong favourites with a difficulty of two away at the London Stadium. The expected points of six point five make him genuinely intriguing at this price. Criminally under the radar.
Second differential — Raya from Arsenal. Six million pounds, thirty-four point seven percent ownership — okay, technically above our threshold, but worth a mention as a differential captain option against Everton. Fourteen clean sheets this season, seven points in Gameweek Twenty-Nine. Arsenal at home to Everton with a fixture difficulty of three is a solid clean sheet opportunity. If you need a keeper who plays Saturday evening, Raya is your man.
Third differential — Stach from Leeds. Four point seven million pounds, two point six percent ownership. Four goals, six assists this season for a midfielder at under five million pounds is exceptional underlying value. Leeds travel to Crystal Palace on Sunday in what the data rates as favourable for Palace, but Stach has been consistently involved. At this price he's a budget enabler who keeps delivering returns. Expected points of five point seven.
Captaincy for Gameweek Thirty. The standout pick is Salah at Liverpool — Liverpool host Spurs on Sunday, and despite losing to Wolves in Gameweek Twenty-Nine, they remain one of the most dangerous attacking sides in the league at home. If Salah is in your squad, he's the armband. If not, Palmer from Chelsea is your next best bet — he scored in Gameweek Twenty-Nine with nine points, faces Newcastle at home, and his expected points of four point eight back him up as the vice-captain choice.
Key tip for Gameweek Thirty: don't chase the Thiago sell too late. With one hundred and seventy thousand transfers in competing against one hundred and ten thousand out, his ownership is volatile. If he doesn't haul this week, you'll see further price drops. Use that budget wisely — Dewsbury-Hall at five point one million pounds is the upgrade that makes sense right now.
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That's your Gameweek Thirty briefing sorted. Subscribe at whogotthepoints.com — we'll see you tomorrow.