The Expert Podcast

 Hidden Shadow Inventory of Homes
  • Economists suggest there may be a "shadow inventory" of homes that could enter the market.
  • This might initially seem like good news for housing availability, but the source of this inventory raises concerns.
What is Shadow Inventory?
  • Properties expected to come to market but are not yet listed.
  • Main source: potential evictions due to overdue rent payments.
Rising Eviction Likelihood
  • A significant rise in tenants facing eviction for being three months behind on rent.
  • Likelihood of evictions has increased from 16% to 23%, marking an alarming 50%+ rise.
Historical Comparison
  • Eviction risks haven’t been this high since the pandemic or even the housing bubble.
Potential Impacts
  • More homes entering the market could lead to temporary relief for buyers.
  • However, evictions could worsen homelessness, income disparity, and potentially impact home prices.
Key Takeaway: While shadow inventory may temporarily ease housing shortages, the human cost of evictions and their broader economic implications cannot be overlooked.

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Some economists are thinking there might be a hidden secret shadow inventory of homes in the marketplace. On the one hand, it might seem like good news that there are homes becoming available in the market. However, on the other hand, where they're saying this inventory is coming from could be bad news.

This article references an economist who discusses shadow inventory. Shadow inventory refers to properties that will come on the market but are not yet listed. So, where is it coming from? What they’re talking about is evictions.

There has been a significant increase in the likelihood of evictions. For instance, tenants behind on three months' rent have driven eviction likelihoods up from 16% to 23%. That’s almost a 50% increase in the number of renters likely to be evicted by the year. This level hasn’t been seen since the pandemic or even during the housing bubble.

These trends are troubling. While they may put more homes on the market, they could also leave more people without a place to live. This could create additional pressure on issues like homelessness, income disparity, and perhaps even home prices.