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Matt and Sean talk about the Big Beautiful Bill, what its long term impacts might be on the renewable energy space, and how easy it might be to go in another direction.
Watch the Undecided with Matt Ferrell episode, How the U.S. Just Handed the Renewable Future to China https://youtu.be/2tNp2vsxEzk?list=PLnTSM-ORSgi7uzySCXq8VXhodHB5B5OiQ
Matt and Sean talk about the Big Beautiful Bill, what its long term impacts might be on the renewable energy space, and how easy it might be to go in another direction.
Watch the Undecided with Matt Ferrell episode, How the U.S. Just Handed the Renewable Future to China https://youtu.be/2tNp2vsxEzk?list=PLnTSM-ORSgi7uzySCXq8VXhodHB5B5OiQ
Follow us on X: @stilltbdfm @byseanferrell @mattferrell or @undecidedmf
Undecided with Matt Ferrell: https://www.youtube.com/undecidedmf
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Creators and Guests
What is Still To Be Determined?
Join Matt Ferrell from the YouTube Channel, Undecided, and his brother Sean Ferrell as they discuss electric vehicles, renewable energy, smart technologies, and how they impact our lives. Still TBD continues the conversation from the Undecided YouTube channel.
Sean Ferrell: This week on Still to be Determined. We're talking political gains versus future losses. Welcome everybody to Still to be Determined. This is the follow up podcast to Undecided with Matt Ferrell. I am not Matt Ferrell, no matter how hard you might want me to be. I'm sorry, I'm just not. But with me is Matt Ferrell. I am his older brother. I'm Sean. Sean Ferrell. I'm a writer. I write some sci fi, I write some horror, I write some stuff for kids. And I'm just generally curious about technology, which is why I'm glad that my brother is that Matt. And speaking of that Matt. Matt, how are you?
Matt Ferrell: I'm doing great. I've actually been taking the end of summer to catch up on movies that I've missed because I don't go to the theater as much anymore. So it's been a nice, relaxing August chunk.
Sean Ferrell: That's very nice. Yesterday here in the city, we were running around doing a bunch of stuff, but it wasn't a super hot day. But a lot of people are out of the city. So I'm not talking about the weather, I'm talking about the population in the city. And when people go out to the Hamptons or go to Jersey, the city starts to feel like it's the right population, which is weird.
Matt Ferrell: It's like Labor Day comes and everybody walk around.
Sean Ferrell: I can find a bench. I can get something to eat easily. Yeah. Then Labor Day comes and suddenly it's, who are these 8 million people and why are they standing in my living room? Today we're going to be talking about Matt's latest. This is his episode how the US just handed the renewable future to China and a little bit of a departure for Matt's channel. Normally he doesn't talk politics, he talks tech. But when talk tech and politics suddenly collide. Like I was gonna say peanut butter and chocolate. That's not what this is. This is a little bit like, what would it be?
Matt Ferrell: I don't know.
Sean Ferrell: Asparagus and chocolate. Kale and chocolate.
Matt Ferrell: Two horrible tastes. They don't go well together.
Sean Ferrell: Fill in two things that don't go together and put them in. That's the equation we're talking about. But before we get into that, Matt and I always like to check in on your comments on our latest conversation to see what you had to say about what we had to say. So from episode 278, we were talking about battery breakthroughs, CATL. A 90% drop potentially in the price where we might see them, when we might use them. And there was discussion in that conversation about car ranges, which made that guy in Denver. Yes, that's his username. I don't expect you to know who he is, but that guy in Denver jumped in with. Are we still hung up on range? Honestly, my range anxiety and boy do I relate to this has more to do with whether I can make it to the next bathroom than the next charger. I plan trips around bathroom stops near chargers while my car gets refreshed. I do too. My bathroom range is about 100 to 150 miles and I've never worried about finding a place to plug in. Yes, this is, I think, a better metric for car buyers than whether or not the charge will last 150 or 200 miles. I find myself on the road very often thinking not, oh, do I need to fill up the tank? I think, do I have to get my coffee? I need to go to the bathroom, I need to stretch my legs. Boy, I'm really bored with driving. I want to get out of this car.
Matt Ferrell: Yeah.
Sean Ferrell: Matt, is that where you land?
Matt Ferrell: That is definitely the. My wife especially. Yes. It's like every trip is like, okay, where are the bathrooms on this trip? That's the main planning. And it's like, oh good, there's a bathroom. There's a EV charger right near that bathroom.
Sean Ferrell: Yes.
Matt Ferrell: It's like we just use that as our litmus test for how we're doing all this stuff.
Sean Ferrell: So yes, I will now share a story about bathroom breaks that oh no. Does not fit really within the context of the purpose of this podcast. But I'm going to share this story regardless. I took when my son was much younger. He was probably six. I took a long road trip from New York to Rochester, New York via a rental car to visit my parents. And on the way back I started the trip with a 32 ounce iced coffee.
Matt Ferrell: Oh no.
Sean Ferrell: I was going to let that sink in because that's what it did to me. It sank in. The way the New York State Thruway, for anybody who's not familiar with it works is it's roughly an hour between rest stops from when you're on the thruway and smartly designed nice rest stops. These are the rest stops that are like a couple of places to eat, nice clean restrooms, a little bit of shopping, usually like a bodega style stand where you can get little odds and ends as well as gas up the car. So we were on the road for an hour and I already had to stop. So I stopped. I used the restroom and my son was young enough that it was a stop. Okay, we both have to get out of the car. It's a good opportunity for both of us to use the bathroom. He used the bathroom, I use the bathroom, get back into the car, drive another hour, I have to go to the bathroom again. So we get out of the car, he goes in with me, he tries to use the restroom, isn't able to, I use the restroom, we get back in the car, we drive another hour. At this point now, his frustration is starting to grow. By the time we got to Albany, it's now been a four and a half hour drive. At this point, almost five hours. And I say to him, I'm really sorry, I need to stop and use the restroom again. My six year old son sitting in the backseat screams at me, I'm not getting out of this car. I will wait here. You go in, you go to the bathroom way too much. And I said you staying here is not an option. But I completely agree with you. I go to the bathroom way too much. So that is my sad tale about finding what your range is regarding driving on long trips.
Matt Ferrell: And being put in your place by a six year old.
Sean Ferrell: Yes, absolutely, totally put in my place. There was also this comment from Bob Witmer which I thought was a nice 2 for 1. He talks about both home batteries and car batteries. Bob says, I agree that the $10 per kilowatt hour price point opens up the possibility of every house having a 200 kilowatt battery bank. This is an interesting point. It also opens the possibility of making DC as a new home standard. So long term we could avoid the cost and energy loss of inverters. He then goes on to say, for cars with a $10 per kilowatt hour that allows the manufacturer to add buffers on either end of the battery pack so they can guarantee a distance. A typical driver doesn't want to know if they should be charging to 60 or 80% for maximum battery life. The manufacturer can present 60% charge as 100 and then adjust it when the battery starts to degrade. So if you buy a car with 350 mile range, they can guarantee no degradation over 10 years. I thought that that was a couple of interesting points. You want to visit his DC possibility? Not everybody's going to want a DC home and not every location of building is going to make DC worth it. But I imagine if you were doing something like building a remote home, building in a hard to reach location, say somewhere in the mountains, deep in the desert, where you had other options for energy production like solar or wind, building your home to basically be DC, totally off grid would be a real opportunity.
Matt Ferrell: Oh, you could absolutely do it. Like, there are. Think about it like this, Sean. RVs are pretty much, for the most part, can be DC. So it's like appliances already exist that are DC, that kind of stuff. So if you really want to go that route, you could. And it would be a much more efficient home if you could do that. But for, like, the majority of us, that's. That's not going to happen. It's just not going to happen. And on this point, I like this idea for manufacturers. Kind of like saying 100% and leaving a buffer for the car to kind of degrade over time is interesting, but I would actually push back a little bit because think about it from this point of view. If I'm an owner of my car, do I want my car, like, making that decision for me, or do I want to say I want to push it to my max? Because it's like, I don't want you kind of like being the nanny for my car. It's like, I know what I'm getting into. If I charge this to 100%, let me do it to 100%. So it's like, I like his idea for maybe, like, out of the box. It's set up that way, but then there's a toggle that you can say saying, like, stop doing that.
Sean Ferrell: Is that effectively? What. I don't know if Android phones do this, but I know my iPhone has a setting for how it charges, and it's selective so that it does a thing where it's like, there's the longevity of the battery or there's the speed and ease of charging. So which do you want? And when I selected life of battery, my battery early on went to a. You're at 85% capacity of what? This was brand new. And I thought, oh, I'm degrading. It's maintained that 85% now for many years.
Matt Ferrell: And I'm doing a job.
Sean Ferrell: I think it's doing this kind of thing where it's like, okay, we're going to tell you on day one, you actually have 85% of your battery life. And now as you're going through time, you're. You're actually working your way down toward that.
Matt Ferrell: I don't think that's what's happening on the iPhone. What's happening is when you let the phone manage the charging, it's not gonna charge it to 100% of the capacity of the battery, it's gonna charge it to 90 or 85 or 92, whatever it determines, it's individual. It's based on how you use your phone. It makes a determination of where it should charge to and you let it take care of itself. The degradation is minimized to a pretty extreme amount. So it will lengthen the lifetime of your battery pack if you let it maintain and do what it needs to do. If you turn that toggle off and you charge to 100% every single time, you're going to watch your battery degrade like wildfire over the next year to two years. So it's kind of one of those pick your poison. What's more important to you? To eke out every possible minute of charge over the course of a day or do you want to have your battery last a longer time?
Sean Ferrell: Right.
Matt Ferrell: And so it's like, I like the iPhone approach. I wish they would do that on EVs where out of the box it's toggled on where it will take care of it for you. But if you're kind of like a wild man and you really want to kind of push your car streams, you can turn it off.
Sean Ferrell: I like that. That's your definition of a wild man.
Matt Ferrell: Yeah. Woo.
Sean Ferrell: Yeah. This guy's really out of control. What does he do? Is he hooked on drugs? Does he go out late at night? Does he do parkour on construction sites? No, no, no, no. He, he manages his own battery in his EV.
Matt Ferrell: He charges to 100%.
Sean Ferrell: Yeah, he charges to 100%, then takes it down to 2. Finally, this comment struck me both for its sense of optimism and as a segue into our conversation about Matt's most recent episode. So this from Bill Hill, who writes, I think the old business model, especially with cars, of making cheap stuff, which isn't the best quality, so that you'll have to keep buying parts and keep servicing them, is going away. Companies now, such as CATL are just making better products. They probably know that demand will be so high that they don't need to worry about locking a customer in with servicing like the old days. Customers will want the next technology when the time comes for replacement. Loyalty to a brand is nearly gone. People bought Fords or Chevys for life as a personal preference. Once they don't do that anymore. The pace of change of technology and the fact that second life and recycling of batteries is becoming a thing means that the economy really does become more circular and sustainable. This really is a new industrial manufacturing revolution. Bill, I would like to think the way you think. I don't know that I land quite in the same camp.
Matt Ferrell: But.
Sean Ferrell: But I think that that sense of optimism around let's build the best thing we can so that it lasts a long time and let the customers drop out of the market and back in when they need a new thing. I wish that was the way it operated, but I don't know that that's what I see. Matt, what do you see?
Matt Ferrell: I agree with elements of what Bill's bringing up, but I don't see it either. Cause I see kind of a race to the bottom as far as I agree that brand loyalty doesn't seem to be as key anymore for certain products. Just go to Amazon. I need to buy this thing that does this thing. And you go in and there's a hundred different Chinese knockoffs. It's like, well, which one's the cheapest and has four stars? Let's get that one. And it's like, and that thing is not well made and it's going to die on you in six months. But it was so cheap. I'll just get a second one. You know what I mean? That's. We're kind of commoditizing technology and products to a certain extent, which I think is horrendous. I'd rather pay a little bit more money and have a product that lasts for years and is easy to repair and keep going. But I'm seeing the opposite as far as like. But again, it depends on what you're talking about. Because what I'm talking about is like the throwaway stuff that we're seeing more often where it might not be true for like cars and things like. Like, it might depend on what kind of product you're talking about. So in that regard, with things like cars, I think Bill might be right.
Sean Ferrell: Maybe.
Matt Ferrell: We'll see.
Sean Ferrell: We'll see. On now to our discussion of Matt’s most recent, in which he's mulling over the impact of the one big beautiful bill on renewable and sustainable energy and basically everything wrapped around that. Everything from research to production to consumer choice. So as we have said week by week, regular viewers and listeners will know this. We feed upon the comments here. That is a 90% of my work in putting together the script for this program revolves around reading through the comments and selecting the ones we're going to talk about. This episode is going to be a little bit different, mainly because the gist of the comments on this video were a stew of anger and sadness. And there was. It was very difficult. Sorry to find it was very difficult to find a comment that was a discussion starter as opposed to just an expression of it's a kind of grief, I think is collectively what the commenters were feeling. And I just wanted to note, yes, we won't be diving deep into the comments on this one, but it's not because we don't see the comments and it's not because we don't resonate with the comments. I, speaking for myself and Matt, you can jump in afterward. I feel all the same things, the same sort of disappointment, anger, sadness, fear around what our current political moment seems to be doing to things like truth and research and optimism and opportunity. So I don't want anybody to listen to our discussion, which will be largely me asking Matt follow up questions that came up to me during my viewing of his episode, which I thought was. And I hope that viewers agree. I thought it was excellent. I thought it was an amazing piece of journalism. And I don't want people to think that the lack of pulling from the comments means that we didn't have a thought or concern about what you all had to say.
It was just that there was a overriding tone which was the themes were clear. Grief. Yeah, the themes were clear. So, Matt, if you wanted to jump in at this moment and say anything in that regard, please do.
Matt Ferrell: Yeah, I struggled with whether I should make this video or not because I tried to keep politics off the channel. And I knew making this video would stir that a lot of anger, grief. I knew I was going to get a lot of hateful comments at me at the points I was making. I knew I was going to get people that would support the things I was saying. I knew I was going to get from every angle. And I knew it was not going to be stirring the pot in a good way. And I don't like making those kind of videos, which is why I try not to make them. But this topic was just for me, too big to ignore. I had to talk about it. And what was interesting is my patrons are fantastic for this. I have, for my higher level patrons, I have a monthly call where I actually hang out and talk with a bunch of them. And I talked through a lot of this with them about this and my struggle with should I do this? And all of them were basically saying the same thing, you need to do it. It's like this is right in your wheelhouse. You need to talk about this. So I went through and I did it mainly with their support of just like telling me to kind of push it and do It So otherwise I may have not. Yeah, I like to try to keep things more positive on the channel and this was definitely not that. So I feel, I feel the pain, I feel the anger, I feel the, the grief. All the things you're talking about, all the feels are definitely were there, definitely there for me.
Sean Ferrell: Some of the thoughts that I had just very like. I think the conversation you and I can have about this will be very like looking at the mountain peaks as opposed to diving into the valleys. I don't want to talk about blame and I don't want to get into the nitty gritties of politics as much as I want to talk about what you think might come out of this short term and what might be opportunities long term. So my first question, which right out of the gate, which industries do you think appear to be the hardest hit? From my perspective, I'm thinking research. Just the starting point of a lot of the technologies that we talk about in the program. The, the research aspect seems to be the one that right out of the gate is like boom, done. But what do you see? Do you agree with it that it's the research component or is there something else that's being impacted as well that may be going unnoticed?
Matt Ferrell: For me, the one that scares the living bejesus out of me is the research. It's because the brain drain is what really terrifies me. It's like you can disagree with my point of view on this 100%. I totally get the other side's point of view on this. But I, I don't believe having a for profit research base is the way forward because there's certain areas of research that will be deemed, oh, that's just not profitable and you'll never look into it. You need to fund some of this stuff with public dollars or it just won't happen. And the research that comes out of some of that stuff can be life altering for all of us. Yeah, but it was deemed not profitable by a large corporation. So you need a mix. You need a little bit of public funding and you need a lot of private companies doing their thing. You need a kind of a balance. And for what terrifies me for this is it's skewing things so out of whack for. It's all private. They're shutting all the stuff down, letting people go, firing jobs, closing everything up. It's just sad to me. The one ray of sunshine I have out of that is that these people still exist. They're going to do their research, but they're going to have to do it somewhere else. And so it's like if they don't find places in the United States, they're going to go to Europe, they're going to go to China, they're going to go other places that will fund them and will pay them and will help them do this research. So that research will eventually get done. It just may not get done here. And so from a world point of view, I don't think it's gonna hurt that much, but it just is. From a United States point of view, it's just like, well, what are we doing? Yeah, that's the part that really kills me is that. And then the industries, I think that are gonna also get hit now that are happening, it's manufacturing, which is counterintuitive to what the current.
Sean Ferrell: They're doing all this in the name of manufacturing.
Matt Ferrell: Right. And there's, there's arguments to be made that this will spur long term manufacturing. But when you look at all the data and you look at how incentives work versus penalties like the tariffs and all that kind of stuff balances out, you need again, a balance of both. You shouldn't just do one or the other. And when things are out of whack like they are right now, you're not incentivizing people to be able to manufacture here in the United States. And manufacturing here in the United States is much more expensive than pretty much anywhere else in the world. So because of that, that's not going to cause manufacturing to suddenly happen here. It's not. You have to have a little bit of a carrot there somehow too, to try to incentivize people, to ramp up that manufacturing so that it can get cheaper here. And then you can remove the carrot because you won't need it later. But you, you need to have some kind of incentive. And without that, you're just kind of pulling the rug out, dropping the bottom out of the manufacturing space and then going to be looking around going like, why isn't it here yet? It's like, well, it's because it's too expensive. Again, profits. It's like they're gonna, they're gonna build in India or Mexico, they're gonna be building everywhere else because it's cheaper than here. Yeah. So those are the two things that kind of concern me the most out of all this.
Sean Ferrell: My fear, in line with all of that is the thing about manufacturing and all of those arguments comes from a place of because U.S. consumers are the best market. And I think that that is going away. I think it's going away in a big way. And I think that those who say, well, US manufacturing is what's important because the US is the best, we may find ourselves on the short end of two very short sticks. Because what happens if manufacturing doesn't come back and a better market emerges from a conglomerate of all the other rising nations in the world who then are benefiting from a non tariffed merchandising? I think that that's what I see. But to move back toward manufacturing, the impact on research, what do you think might be the area where a recovery in this way might be easier? Like government dollars suddenly going back into research doesn't suddenly bring back people. So what do you think is the place that's being impacted right now where a recovery is an easier term?
Matt Ferrell: That's a really hard question to answer.
Sean Ferrell: Is it maybe the manufacturing as you.
Matt Ferrell: Laid it out, that maybe if, if.
Sean Ferrell: There are ways of instilling carrots ahead of manufacturing, that you end up getting something going that snowballs and you hopefully do have a manufacturing recovery?
Matt Ferrell: I think so. Maybe. I mean, like this is to keep politics out of it, but it's going to bring it in. What I'm about to say, the Inflation Reduction Act, the IRA that Biden put in was basically just a huge amount of carrots. There weren't many sticks in the IRA. And then you've got the current administration, which is basically just one gigantic stick, and there's no carrots of any kind. And it's undercut a lot of what the IRA was doing. And what's frustrating is that those carrots in the companies and the people I've talked to in Europe in the energy space had made comments to me about when the IRA got passed into law, there was a kind of giant sucking sound of talent from Europe over into the United States. And I thought that was fascinating. And they were like, this is the biggest kind of climate change renewable energy incentive package that had basically been passed anywhere in the world. And the funding was there. And so it was causing a brain drain and a talent drain everywhere else coming here. And that's just been completely undercut. So that kind of gives me a little hope that if there was some more common sense at play in the next few years, if somebody could, whether it's the current administration or somebody else, started to kind of bring things back into balance and came up with an incentive package, not just a brain drain, but had some carrots in there, I think you could stop the brain drain. The talent train that's currently underway right now and maybe help some of it recover? And I think the one that would be easier to kind of recover would be that manufacturing angle. The talent issue I think is a harder one because like when they go, they tend to stay, stay going away. Yeah.
Sean Ferrell: Is there one particular field in all of this? Like the batteries, the EVs, the sustainable energy production? Like, is there one of these that stands up as the one that's being hardest impact right now? And is there one that could have the ability to sustain momentum from the past decades and become what we've all been hoping could take place in the evolution of say, vehicles moving from internal combustion engines toward EVs or sustainable energy production? Is one of these going to still continue its momentum and land in a place where it doesn't matter what they're doing, we're still headed that direction.
Matt Ferrell: I would say for like cars, for a US car making, it's. I'm very pessimistic on US car manufacturing and I'm talking the big players. I'm not talking about like the new EVs, I'm not talking about Rivian, I'm not talking about Tesla, I'm talking about Ford, GM. They look like they had momentum for a little while a number of years ago and then things started to kind of falter and then all the stuff that's been happening recently has caused them to kind of like really pump the brakes on a bunch of stuff, pun intended. So I think they're in a rocky place. They've been in a rocky place for a while and they're still there. The ones that I have the most optimism for are the battery industry and the solar industry. Because as much as China dominates, you know, they make 80% of the solar panels in the world. The US has solar panel manufacturing here, we make solar panels. Here we actually make. Currently we have enough capacity that we could theoretically supply all of the US's solar panel needs with US made solar panels today, it's like, hurrah. That's awesome. Yeah, that's not the case because, you know, cheap Chinese solar panels are bought all over the place. But the fact that that industry is there, what's happened now is it stalled. A lot of the new production manufacturing facilities that were planned have been like canceled or stalled or pushed out because of what's going on right now. But that current capacity is still there. So it's like we, it's going to keep chugging along and they're going to keep making their processes better and they're going to keep chugging forward. So it's kind of like we're hitting kind of a bump in the road, but it's not. I don't think it's going to knock it completely, of course. And then batteries, there is so much incentive to.
No matter what the administration is doing, there's so much incentive to make batteries because it's the future of everything. And so it's like that. I have a lot of confidence that better manufacturing is going to keep moving forward no matter what. Even though we are seeing blips and plants kind of being shelved for the time being, it's the same thing. So those are the two I'm not concerned about.
Sean Ferrell: Finally, we like to end with the best, worst comments. This one's not the best worst comment. This is just kind of the best, best comment. Mark Westcott jumps in with, let's all remember Jimmy Carter, who put solar panels on the roof of the White House as a show of support for the industry, and Reagan, who removed them.
Matt Ferrell: Yep.
Sean Ferrell: Kind of a sad, sad and quiet moment in history when you think about it.
Matt Ferrell: It is, it is. But it's one of those things of, look what happened to the solar industry. Even though that happened. Right. It's like, still kept chugging along and it kept growing. It may have grown faster with more support from Reagan and other administrations afterwards, but it kept growing. And this is the point I drove home in the video, which was, it's the cheapest form of electricity we've ever had. It's not going to go away. It's going to be there no matter what your political ideology is. Which is why I always find it personally funny to call these commenters out, people who say solar panels are a scam and it's a greenwashing or whatever you say. It's like, data's on my side, buddy. It's the cheapest form of electricity ever made. Even when you take incentives out.
Sean Ferrell: And what's taking them off the roof? The debate, I think it's remarkable, the debate around it, when ultimately the fuel of that energy source is free. Like, you build it, the fuel.
Matt Ferrell: It sits there for 30 years. It sits there for 30 years just making electricity work with oil and coal and gasoline and all those things, you.
Sean Ferrell: Got to keep going and getting it.
Matt Ferrell: You have to keep getting it and making it. Yeah. As long as you're using it, you got to keep making it. It's like, not with solar panels. It's come on.
Sean Ferrell: So listeners, commenters, jump into the comments, let us know what you think, and we will happily accept any comment, even if it is simply a sad, angry comment, we get it.
Matt Ferrell: Yep. Yep.
Sean Ferrell: But for anybody out there with even the inkling of an idea, that's a response or a joining in of the conversation Matt and I just tried to have, please do jump into the comments. We would appreciate it. Thank you so much for that. And also, don't forget liking subscribing, sharing with your friends. These are great ways to support the channel. If you'd like to support us directly, you can click the join button on YouTube or you can go to stilltbd.fm. Either way allows you to click the join button and then you get to throw coins at our heads. We appreciate the welts. And then we get down to the heavy, heavy business of trying to keep our heads up. Thank you so much, everybody, for taking the time to watch or listen. We'll talk to you next time. Matt, you're gonna need to excuse me for two seconds. I just saw a huge spider crawling across the floor. I want to go kill it. Ladies and gentlemen, we have to cancel this podcast for an important announcement. The invasion has begun. I just killed a gigantic spider on my living room floor. And when I went to the bathroom to throw the tissue away, there was another gigantic spider on the wall of the bathroom. If I suddenly disappear from this podcast, it's because my home has been overrun.
Matt Ferrell: Was it a Jersey spider? I'm working over here.
Sean Ferrell: Hey, what are you doing? I just built that web.