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TBPN is a live tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, streaming weekdays from 11–2 PT on X and YouTube, with full episodes posted to Spotify immediately after airing.
Described by The New York Times as “Silicon Valley’s newest obsession,” TBPN has interviewed Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, and Satya Nadella. Diet TBPN delivers the best moments from each episode in under 30 minutes.
You're watching TBPN. Today's Friday, 06/26/2026. We are live from the TBPN L3M, the temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital. Let me tell you about ramp.com. Time is money saved.
Speaker 1:Use corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place. And now they got two CEOs. You wanna partner with a company that just has one CEO? No way. Get out of here.
Speaker 1:You wanna go with a company that has two. Kareem, promoted. Very very fun development
Speaker 2:in the Ramp about it. We've we've obviously had like tons of conversations Yeah. With the Ramp team over the years and it's like actually always been fifty fifty Yeah. Kareem Eric. Yeah.
Speaker 2:And so very natural move Yeah. For them.
Speaker 1:I mean, they've been working together for over a decade at this point across multiple companies and have always and both founders and both, you know, major shareholders.
Speaker 2:They're like following in our footsteps.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. This is the TBPN effect. We get we get to take credit for this.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Congrats to Kareem on the promotion, the field promotion. It's very exciting. And go check out Ramp, of course. We're back.
Speaker 2:Equally important, we're back. France. We miss you guys. We miss you guys a lot. Yeah.
Speaker 2:It was rough. Genuinely brutal. It's brutal. We feel deeply unwell by around one p. M.
Speaker 2:If we haven't gone live regardless of the time zone.
Speaker 1:The sweating and shaking is crazy. Yeah. It is a full I
Speaker 2:mean, Yeah. And the withdrawals. I mean, maybe it would get after a few weeks. Yeah. But yeah, the That symptoms makes are it brutal.
Speaker 1:Anyway, it was a high stakes trip. Of course, Jordi has battled with French President Emmanuel Macron in the past. And then And what and appeared to be a direct shot at me. France recently banned nicotine pouches fully. Very controversial.
Speaker 2:Pretty much all oral nicotine products Yeah. Banned. Yeah. So As of April. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Country. We went over there to make amends. Yeah. And right away, it felt like, you know, they were sending messages Yeah. Straight from the top.
Speaker 2:Yep. Cause we land in Paris Yep. And we have a connecting flight Yeah.
Speaker 1:With Nice.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Where where the conference is. And you know, we get in the airport, you know, we're we're excited to be there. Yeah. It's Paris.
Speaker 2:Yep. Right? The sun Small is issue is it's roughly a 100 degrees inside the airport.
Speaker 1:Coincidence. Interesting coincidence. Yeah. We're there.
Speaker 2:Right when we show up
Speaker 1:Then it gets hot.
Speaker 2:Generational heat wave. Yeah. Makes me
Speaker 1:ask some questions.
Speaker 2:Of course, there's no air conditioning. Right? It's it's legitimately a 100 degrees. You look around, there's everyone has their fans out. Yep.
Speaker 2:They're like sweating profusely. Really really messy situation. Go to a cafe, try to get an ice drink. They're out of ice. The whole airport doesn't have AC
Speaker 1:No ice.
Speaker 2:Or ice in the whole airport. Yeah. And then we go to get on our flight and we sit down. And, you know, we're waiting we're waiting starting Starting to to feel like we're waiting a little bit too long to get off the ground. About forty five minutes in, they come over the intercom and let us know that the air conditioning on the plane is broken and they're working on fixing it.
Speaker 2:Thirty minutes later, they come over again and they say, we've been unable to get the air conditioning working. We're not gonna be able to take off. You have to de plane. And, you know, we we felt terrible for all the other passengers because clearly it was McCrone Mhmm. Just sabotaging our flight.
Speaker 2:Yeah. But for him to inconvenience, you know, hundreds of other people just
Speaker 1:It shows you how important it is to him.
Speaker 2:Just to get at us.
Speaker 1:It's you. Yeah.
Speaker 2:It's just insane. To me, that crossed the line. It's like if it's, you know, clearly it's personal. Yep. But figure out a way to come at us.
Speaker 1:Be a little more targeted. Yeah. More targeted. Exactly. Why does there need to be so
Speaker 2:much Exactly. And then, of course, on our next flight
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 2:We get to the airport, plane's ready, pilot's ready. And, you know, they tell us again like, hey, we're we're just figuring out some stuff. We're we're we're gonna take off as soon as we can. We're bored. We decide, hey, is any anything any like World Cup games on?
Speaker 2:We should turn turn it on and see. So we're sitting there and we're like, woah, France is actually playing in the World Cup right What are the chances? And so we keep kind of checking in with the pilot. And he's like, yeah, we need a little bit more time. We're not really sure why.
Speaker 2:The plane's there. The pilot's there. Yep. They're ready to go. We're like, what's going on?
Speaker 2:A little bit later
Speaker 1:Like we're ready to go.
Speaker 2:Ten minutes before, you know, it's like thirty five minutes into the game. Yeah. They're like, hey, we just need a few more minutes. The fuel truck's gonna be here soon. Thank you for your patience.
Speaker 2:This time By this point, we've been waiting for like an hour and a half.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:And halftime starts. Ten minutes later, there's fuel in the plane. We're ready to
Speaker 1:go. And
Speaker 2:we're just sitting there like Coincidence. Coincidence? I think not. Yeah. Anyways, a little bit of a bit of a journey to get there.
Speaker 2:But we had a good week.
Speaker 1:Yeah. It was good. Adquick was there representing. Saw some Adquick billboards and Mercedes with Adquick livery that looked pretty sick.
Speaker 2:That's right. Who else was there? Who? With one of the best out of home placements of the event, vibe.co.
Speaker 1:Who
Speaker 2:announced a $1,400,000,000 acquisition
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:To Walmart Yeah. The first day, the first real day of the conference.
Speaker 1:It was really good.
Speaker 2:So congratulations to the Vibe dot co team. Pretty unbelievable. Yeah. They they I wouldn't say they were under the radar because they were very loud with their advertising. Yeah.
Speaker 2:But, you know, not you know, in in a sea of just like AI exits Yeah. Like they stand out as like one of the most impressive runs of the last couple of years.
Speaker 1:And I saw some people digging into the the Walmart strategy around Vibe and they have a whole host of other platforms for their ad platform that seems to be coming together quite nicely. Yeah. We should dig into it more and have the founder on to talk about the journey. Before we continue, let me tell you about MongoDB. What's the only thing faster than the AI market?
Speaker 1:Your business on MongoDB. Don't just build AI. Own the data platform that powers it. Little little history. Canned Lions, it used to be mostly about creative advertisements giving awards for creativity.
Speaker 1:Mostly in consumer. They didn't really have a b to b focus until maybe a decade ago. Now it's much more broad, more corporate as you saw we mentioned, you know, ad, like digital ad platforms have presences there. It's much more performance oriented, and there's a big focus on the creator economy. It really cuts across different media forms, you know, big networks and television will be there.
Speaker 1:The New York Times will be there. But then also small YouTubers, Instagram creators, a whole host of people will be sent there alongside some sort of brand on like a brand trip. Spotify threw a big concert on the beach. John Summit played because they have a large ads platform primarily. Like, it makes sense that Spotify would have a music guest, but they're there specifically to promote their ads product.
Speaker 1:Yahoo had Tiesto play, again, basically to facilitate deals around their ads business. There are other activations from big tech companies and ad platforms. Athletes attend. Hollywood talent agencies host parties. It's not packed with a list celebrities, but it feels like everyone has a following of some sort.
Speaker 1:And that was a big point of discussion. Like, there was one level of conversation that was just like creators are the future, everyone's heard this pitch a million times. But the bigger discussion was something that Andrew Ross Sorkin from Squawk Box CNBC deal book mentioned talking about the trade offs between independence and consolidation. You've talked about this before, just the idea of a roll up of independent sub stackers. Where is the right economy of scale in the creator economy?
Speaker 1:Maybe not everyone should be independent. Maybe not everyone should be with a large organization. And this trade off is sort of interesting to dig into as we see both creators go bigger and produce more expensive shows and then also the legacy media companies are getting better at social media type content. So we can kind of dig into this. Andrew's post was really widely discussed in creator circles, but we'll we'll read it here.
Speaker 1:I'm flying back from Cannes. Something I've been thinking about. I was taken aback by how some of what I thought were most success, the most successful influencers say that they need to spend so much money to keep up that they're not making the kind of headline popping numbers we often read about when he asks for thoughts. And a lot of people, high yield Harry says, Not surprising. You can't be at 80 to 90% EBITDA margins forever and expect to retain attention and scale.
Speaker 1:It's going to bring in more competition. And that's a piece of what's happening. I think there's I think there's a few things happening. One is the big transition from independent creators pivoting from making content to making shows. And you can look at Subway takes in this in this way.
Speaker 1:The other show from is keep the meter running much more high much more produced, much more edited Yeah. Much more costly to to produce. And then also but you're still faced with some of the awkwardness around how do you actually monetize that. There isn't a logical ad break, although I think there should be in a three minute subway takes ad or video, a three minute episode. I think that it would be fine to have a five to ten second mid roll in the middle of that.
Speaker 1:But that has not been done. Like that floodgate hasn't opened yet. So most creators are doing so either it's either a really polished vertical video about their own content and then they'll do a promoted post that's another thirty second, sixty second multi minute vertical video in their same style but purely sponsored content. And a lot of those videos don't go as viral. And so you have this awkward trade off where the content that's great that people want can't be monetized so you have to do like one and one.
Speaker 1:It'd be a little bit tricky. Like part of the way our show works is that we're just talking about whatever and then we'll tell you about Cisco, critical infrastructure for the AI era, unlock seamless real time experiences, a new value with Cisco. It would be different if we had to do every other episode is just purely about Cisco and then we go back to about just the news and talking. And so that's something that's like starting to evolve in those higher cost structures. I think that they still have more enduring Yeah.
Speaker 2:Value out with their top creators list and Yeah. Earnings. MrBeast was at the top with 300,000,000. Huge. I would imagine But that's revenue.
Speaker 2:That yeah. Like Yeah. Earnings is is not the right word It should just be gross revenue.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2:I I have no idea what what Jimmy's margins actually look like on that 300. But I'm it it it would appear he's spending like He's obsessed
Speaker 1:with reinvesting for the
Speaker 2:3 Yeah. 100 That's always been a part of
Speaker 1:his As opposed to Joe Rogan who has these big deals and he seems completely content Same to be in a tiny team. Yeah. And yeah. Same same. And not really trying to buy anything to accelerate growth.
Speaker 1:Dar Happy.
Speaker 2:Man Oh, He was there. Was number two at 65 in top line. Steven Bartlett Yeah. At 52. Arc Applier, 38, Rhett and Link, 37, Charlie D'Amelio, 18.
Speaker 2:Druski, 20, ISO Speed, 30. Very weird that doesn't that it seem to be ordered by
Speaker 1:Oh, really? It seems just ordered loosely.
Speaker 2:But they're just yeah. Anyways.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Dhar Mann has production costs as well. He does these like short scripted stories. Mostly for he's huge on Facebook but he's big on other platforms as well. And they have real cost because he has to go find a set, a location, real cameras, multi camera shoots, editing and real actors.
Speaker 1:Of course, all of it is like low budget filmmaking but there is cost to that and it is of course increasing as the as the competitive as the competition heats up.
Speaker 2:Trey says Rogan has a lot of peptide expenses.
Speaker 1:I don't think you can spend a $100,000,000 a year on peptides if that's what he's bringing in top line. Anyway, the zero marginal cost era of yapping into your iPhone, it seems ultra competitive now. It seems like it's increasingly rare to see that scale in 2026. People are still breaking through but they're breaking through with new more polished products that of course have higher costs. Simultaneously, traditional media companies are starting to dial in content strategies for traditionally creator led platforms.
Speaker 1:I think the New York Times has done a fantastic job here. You have the Ezra Klein show and Ross Douthit who are sort of like the left and right perspectives. And their shows have become really successful on YouTube a lot due to the packaging. They understand how to get a good title and thumbnail together. The editing, the production values are really, really high quality.
Speaker 1:And so those podcasts do very well on YouTube in a way that other shows from legacy media companies, it's been hard for them to break through traditionally. But they certainly have and it's interesting that it's recent. Another example is the the popcast, John Karamanica, who we hung out with and his co host Joe. They have really taken that show and made it very internet native to the point where they produce a ridiculously polished vertical video for Instagram and social media every week to promote the song of the week and it's in a different location. And of course, there's cost associated with that.
Speaker 1:But what's really interesting about it is that you can be, you know, a new like, a social media consumer who's blissfully unaware of the entire world that exists behind the NYT paywall. And you that can still learn
Speaker 2:strategy was interesting. So a lot of the, you know, big platforms Yeah. The Spotifys, the Snaps, the Metas, the YouTubes, they went, you know, they would build this, you know, mini festival on the beach where they'd take over an entire hotel. Yep. Popcast went a different route.
Speaker 2:They rebuilt an authentic dive bar just off of the strip full of like actors and characters.
Speaker 1:There was
Speaker 2:a guy wearing kilt. Yep. And so when you went and when we went to to have a meeting with them Yeah. It felt like we were in a French dive
Speaker 1:bar. Yeah. We were like, wow, this actually feels like we're getting a taste of like what the real con would be like.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. Real con. Yeah. It was cool.
Speaker 2:So I thought that was really cool.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Very very cool of them to do that.
Speaker 2:The other thing that was interesting, France appeared to put Brian Johnson a pack of cigarettes.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Had Pull up this image.
Speaker 1:I That mean does look like Brian Johnson.
Speaker 2:Really out of pocket to take an asset.
Speaker 1:It works pretty well though. Don't die, don't smoke. You know, it's his message. I think he would approve this.
Speaker 2:But I saw this and I had to take a picture because I was like, is it actually uncanny? He has like a lot of pictures of himself laying down like that, eyes closed.
Speaker 1:Also, this looks like a man being put in a body bag, but at the same time, it looks like just a man who got a getting a beautiful night's sleep getting tucked in after a nice couple of hot heaters. He ripped a couple darts, had a couple of beers, crushed a couple cold ones, and now he's ready to get put to bed by someone.
Speaker 2:Yeah. This is actually much more tame than some of the
Speaker 1:Oh, some of them are gruesome. Like Yeah. So gruesome showing like the x rays of cancer patients and like black lungs and stuff. Like, is pretty mild. If you look like this guy after you're smoking a whole pack, like, you're doing pretty well.
Speaker 1:I think it's fine. Anyway, the the end state of of this debate, it's it's interesting. There's a little bit of grass is always greener on the other side going on. The with independent creators thinking, oh, maybe it'd be better if I was with a larger organization and then vice versa with a lot of the folks inside big organizations saying, oh, if I left, could probably make so much more money. I don't think it's a one size fits all approach here.
Speaker 1:I think it's more of a sorting process. Some creators will find elegant business models outside of large organizations. Like, those 80 to 90% EBITDA margins still exist for certain categories, certain
Speaker 2:Yeah. Look at obsession. Right? It's like a low margin, highly competitive, but it's hits driven. So you can have one breakout hit
Speaker 1:That's a great example. And,
Speaker 2:you know Yeah. Have insane margins.
Speaker 1:Yeah. And then there's also just there's certain formats and certain shows that will be sticky and then also not scale with cost. Whereas, like the MrBeast model of doing ever bigger reality TV show style stunts, that probably does scale cost with views over time. But, you know, if you're going to be doing criticism or gaming creation or streaming or something, there there are certain things like Rogan, you you tell him, hey, go spend extra 10,000,000 like he doesn't really know what to do with it. Yeah.
Speaker 1:It's like
Speaker 2:it's like how people imagine the SaaS business model. Right? Yes. You can scale revenue without scaling like incremental cost, but it's actually true in the case
Speaker 1:of And there are some companies in software that have done that. And then there's some where you're just like, wait, really? They're still driving up costs and it's because of their particular market. So I think it's more of this like sorting process. Some creators will find elegant business models outside of traditional organizations.
Speaker 1:Others will probably wind up leveraging the possibility of going independent into more meaningful contracts within traditional media organizations. I think that might be a trend. There might be some shift in the mindset of traditional media companies where they realize that someone that they were paying as a journalist or as a reporter is now proper talent and could take their audience with them. And so there is a contract renegotiation because they don't want to wind up in the position of like the Vox, BuzzFeed, Vice, where all the best talent left and took their audiences with them. And there's probably a meat in the middle where you're not paying them through the nose, but you're paying them more than what they were making just as someone who is like below the line, just like a content creator internally once they actually break out.
Speaker 1:And so I think there'll be lots of mistakes along the way. No doubt, some folks who should be independent will stay too long and vice versa. Some people who would be better suited for being inside a large organization leveraging all of those capabilities will be will go independent and then regret it and maybe go back. But it's increasingly clear that a one size fits all approach perhaps with a tagline like independent creators of the future. I don't think that fits quite I don't think that quite fits anymore.
Speaker 1:To each their own, I think everyone sort of needs to find their own way and figure out what's right for them.
Speaker 2:David Senra is in the chat. Hello. Hello, Senra.
Speaker 1:Good to see you.
Speaker 2:We miss you.
Speaker 1:Founders Podcast. And The David Senra Show. Go check it out. He's been on an absolute tear, a generational run. Let me tell you about public.com investing for those who take it seriously.
Speaker 1:They got stocks, stocks, options, bonds, crypto, treasuries and more with great customer service. You can go on there
Speaker 2:and Someone else was saying data.
Speaker 1:You can go
Speaker 2:to data. Doesn't seem like a coincidence that global markets were in free fall While we were while we were gone.
Speaker 1:That makes sense. We weren't
Speaker 2:full healthy worry. Swift recovery.
Speaker 1:Yeah. You can make your own decision on whether or not you're buying the dip, but do it on public.com. Smart glasses are inevitable, but what or who are they for? Says Christopher Mims in the Wall Street Journal. This is on the back of the new meta glasses that launched.
Speaker 1:Chris Christopher Mims says, the deluge of smart glasses has begun. Has it? Feels like I don't know if it's a deluge. Feels more like a like just a trickle or like a steady stream. But maybe I've been following it too closely.
Speaker 1:I think that's all of my problems with analyzing this category and we'll get into that. Yeah. My criticisms are like very odd technical.
Speaker 2:Yeah. It's and it's so Meta has been selling a lot of glasses. The products are the products
Speaker 1:are Like dozens? Hundreds?
Speaker 2:No. They've been selling I believe they've already I believe they're already in the in the mill in the millions of units of not
Speaker 1:Hundreds not the
Speaker 2:of millions of dollars in revenue? I believe so.
Speaker 1:Okay. Ben. I think it's getting I I agree with you. Think it's getting material.
Speaker 2:I was going to say is that it's for products that are functionally like a great pair of glasses with a camera attached.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Right? These are not like I don't see a lot of people talking about like, oh, I'm replacing AirPods entirely with these, even if that is one
Speaker 1:Is that just because
Speaker 2:And that is also with like having, being able to sell through a one of one ad unit on the greatest distribution platform in the history
Speaker 1:going up against stiff competition. Like the Apple Vision Pro is so good that like, know, it's like we are job's finished. Like we have the Apple Vision Pro, why should
Speaker 2:do funny. Was So I never tried the Apple Vision Pro until this trip. And I asked John, was like, hey, can I can I take him for a spin? And you were like, oh, it's like kind of a hassle to set up. It is.
Speaker 1:And You have like put it
Speaker 2:You're like, know But John was like, no. I want Jordy to experience this.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:And so we go through this whole like hassle of setting it up and I'm like twenty seconds into the dinosaur demo and the flight attendant comes up and is like tapping me on the Yeah. Like actually out of virtual reality. I was like, the audacity.
Speaker 1:And I think the question was just like, are those cool? Or something. It wasn't it wasn't like, sir, you need to put on your seat or something. Was like
Speaker 2:I was I was fully immersed Yeah. And and it and it and it completely ruined it for me.
Speaker 1:And what's funny is like the whole pitch for the Apple Vision Pro is you don't need to take it off to talk to somebody because it will show the eyes. And no, Tyler's on his way back.
Speaker 2:You guys went to France for raising
Speaker 1:Raising Cannes. Yes. Raising Cannes. Raising Cannes is good.
Speaker 2:Yes. Tyler got left at CDG. Yeah. Yeah. Shoddity.
Speaker 1:But So I have the
Speaker 2:We got got Timu, Tyler. I have the answer for the Metaclasses. Okay. Yeah. How how we doing?
Speaker 2:So since 2025, there's been 7,000,000 plus sold across OKIE and Meta. 2,000,000 was just the Ray Bans.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:Wait. 2,000,000 units. 2,000,000 units. Okay. And that's the estimated gross retail sales was 2.1 to 3,000,000,000
Speaker 1:That's pretty good.
Speaker 2:Yeah, John. The way you were framing it, it was like, yeah, we've sold 7,000,000. And you're like, $7,000,000. And it's like, no, it's $77,000,000. Like, it's a lot of units.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. It's a lot of units.
Speaker 1:Yeah. It's getting there.
Speaker 2:And and there's there's some level, if it wasn't meta
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 2:We'd be like, wow, this company has like insane product market fit. Yeah. Selling 7,000,000 units of a new
Speaker 1:Yeah. If it was Orang or Whoop or something like that, we'd be very impressed. Yeah. I I I think you're a 100% correct.
Speaker 2:And it and it would be like, it could probably be like a standalone Yeah. Public company.
Speaker 1:But people would still be slamming it for it for being like way worse than the Apple Vision Pro in terms of watching watching old films. I watched Master and Commander on it. It was great. It's a fantastic movie. Highly recommend.
Speaker 1:Godfather Part two, also good. Dunkirk, I got some I did some damage on the back catalog. Anyway, let's go back to Christopher Mims in the Wall Street Journal. He says, at the low end there's a new line of Meta Glasses which start at $2.99 and play well with vision benefit plans. Interesting.
Speaker 1:So you can buy them with insurance. For another $100, there's a pair aimed at fans of Kylie Jenner. We saw these in action and they looked great. They they I I think reviews are very very high quality.
Speaker 2:If if I hadn't seen the launch, I wouldn't have noticed that they were matte glasses
Speaker 1:Yes. At It really is. The it has this jewel. You can see it. It's that small white like glint right there.
Speaker 1:And I was so confused by this but this is purely a me problem because I assumed that that was a recording light because or or some sort of display because if you look at the meta ray band displays, you'll see that there's slight grooves in the glass for forming the beams to show you the display. And so I was like, oh, that's a that's a smart feature. That is there for a functional reason, but it's in fact not. It's purely aesthetic and people who are in the market love this. I was confused by it, but I think I might be the only person that is confused by it.
Speaker 1:So I I don't think it's a problem whatsoever. But there's no screen. There is a voice assistant. Alphabet's, Google, and Samsung have teamed up to release their own competing lines due this fall from eyewear companies Gentle Gentle Monster and Warby Parker. For those itching to upgrade, there are glasses with in lens displays.
Speaker 1:They cost more. Metas is $800 and specs from Snap is $2,200. They are so chunky. They look like something you might see in a Prada ad and never in real life. Silicon Valley has been trying to make smart glasses happen for more than a decade.
Speaker 1:Remember Google Glass, Facebook and Instagram parent meta platforms has captured more than 80% of this market. Not bad. But in 2025, that meant selling just 7,000,000 pairs of glasses. By comparison, the world buys more than a 100,000,000 smart watches a year and more than
Speaker 2:a What billion it say about like the broad investor views on smart glasses overall if Meta has 80% of this like emerging category Yeah. That's selling 7,000,000 units and they get like basically zero credit for it?
Speaker 1:I don't know. I I just think I
Speaker 2:I I I don't I don't know anybody like excited about meta Well,
Speaker 1:it's not zero marginal cost. And I I mean
Speaker 2:I know. But if it if it has even a 10% chance of becoming like actually a dominant consumer computing platform,
Speaker 1:I don't think that's the case though. Like, no one would say that the the Apple Watch is a dominant computing platform. They would say like Yeah. It's a great accessories business for Apple and it's probably worth 50,000,000,000 or a $100,000,000,000 and that's just not that material one way or another to a $2,000,000,000,000 company or a company that hopes to be worth 2,000,000,000,000. And so I think that it can get there.
Speaker 1:When I see 7,000,000 pairs of glasses compared to a 100,000,000 smart watches, I feel like this is perfect trajectory. Like this is great. Do you think that
Speaker 2:Meta ever makes a free pair of glasses that's ad supported?
Speaker 1:I don't know. I think that an ads business would actually be much more attractive. When you when you say, oh, they're making a billion dollars in revenue, that's not a 100% margin. I think about, well, what is Thread's revenue going to be? And that's going to be much higher margin.
Speaker 1:Like, Thread's is probably more exciting to the core business and to the financial outcomes of Yeah.
Speaker 2:I just think I I think if you
Speaker 1:I understand it's exciting. I like hardware. Like, it's cool. It's just like it's it's it's hard to underwrite to like some, oh, it's moving the needle on cash flow.
Speaker 2:I would
Speaker 1:This is gonna pay for another data center.
Speaker 2:I would expect to see, just like we saw the ad supported Kindle. Mhmm. I think we'll see the ad supported meta glasses.
Speaker 1:Are the ads on the inside for where? Yes. On the outside
Speaker 2:for everyone? For user. So you're walking on a street and and you walk past a restaurant and it pops up like, you know, get get a free matcha.
Speaker 1:I I don't like that. I like the other way. I wanna be wearing the glasses and I want it to be barking ads at everyone around me while noise cancelling those ads to me. So I don't get I don't have to hear them.
Speaker 2:You become a a loud billboard.
Speaker 1:Exactly. I pay for the no ads version but you didn't pay and you're sitting next to me. So unless you pay, you you So you would
Speaker 2:dress up as like one of those guys sign flipper. You dress up as a guy on the street. Yeah. And you're pretending to do like what do you do for a living interviews. But then right when you get up, instead of saying what do you do for a living, you just activate the ads.
Speaker 2:Yeah. And you just try to bark like Yeah. Four or five
Speaker 1:ads. What is your intelligent cloud provider? Is it Railway? What which one is it? Let me tell you about Railway.
Speaker 1:Railway is the all in one intelligent cloud provider. Use your favorite agent to deploy web app servers databases and more while Railway automatically takes care of scaling monitoring security. That would be a great ad to bark out of your glasses on command. Anyway, so Apple is reportedly hard at work on its own smart glasses, although it's unclear when they might arrive. Gurman said 2028, 2029, like we're more than a full year away, which is remarkably slow given that I feel like when Meta or when Apple enters this, they're going to do very well.
Speaker 1:I I I don't know. Maybe the Apple aesthetics won't work on the in the glasses market, but I feel like they have the design lineage and capabilities. Like they make small they make they make small devices. Like the technology is gonna be great and very integrated. And they just have to get the design right.
Speaker 1:But you can have multiple shots on goal with different styles and frames. So it doesn't seem like it will be hard for them to, you know, add that into your cart when you're getting a watch and an iPad and a phone even though they might cost a lot. I don't know what the Apple
Speaker 2:Let's get into the skepticism.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:Since Even hostility. Start
Speaker 1:The idea of a face worn computer has garnered skepticism. Even hostility, is understandable. When most of us are trying to reduce our time in front of screens, it seems absurd to mount them right in front of our eyeballs and we should and why should we be why should we be okay with everyone we meet pointing internet connected cameras at us. It feels like an assault on what little privacy we have left. So why do you carry a flash bang around?
Speaker 1:Then there's the built in AI. Artificial intelligence let these glasses identify objects in our field of view. That is not a very compelling use case for me.
Speaker 2:Hot dog, not hot dog.
Speaker 1:It's just like I'm looking at a building. What is this building? It's a building. Like, I'm like, what is this tree? What what do you see?
Speaker 1:It's a tree. Like, I don't know. Like, do you care if it's a ficus tree or not? It's pretty rare. South African meerkat.
Speaker 1:How often are you running into an unidentified meerkat? Like, this is not that big of a problem. The bigger one is that you're just able to talk to an AI agent and have it look up things for you, have it do whatever you want in on your phone, in your world, on in your agent. But if it's very rare that you're seeing things in the real world, oh my god, what can is this? What is this?
Speaker 1:I need to know. It's like, come on. I know what a Diet Coke is. And then Just say you're not
Speaker 2:five years old. Yeah. Just say you're not five years old.
Speaker 1:But if I know what it is, then I then I don't need the visual part. I can just say, hey, I I want some extra information about diet coke. I'm about to drink one. Can you look up the latest aspartame studies?
Speaker 2:Yeah. I do I do use out like I I learned about a kind of car from Renault called the Twizzy
Speaker 1:Yeah. That
Speaker 2:is quite And I did take a picture
Speaker 1:of this. Sure. Sure. I have been doing that too.
Speaker 2:And ask chat what is this? Yeah. But it's very something that pull up the Twizzy. Also This is like potentially the coolest vehicle Yeah. On the
Speaker 1:I was playing a video game and I took a photo of the screen when I had to upgrade my character in the role playing game. And I was like, how should I allocate my points?
Speaker 2:Look at
Speaker 1:this. It's pretty sweet.
Speaker 2:Imagine you and your best I friends
Speaker 1:thought it was a smart car too. It's
Speaker 2:not. Imagine you and your best friends have a fleet of these and you're just like, hey, let's go
Speaker 1:to the park. It's the French dream.
Speaker 2:Hey, let's let's go play some golf. It'd be cool if you pull up to the golf course
Speaker 1:And then one person
Speaker 2:and you don't even get out of your car. You just drive straight to the first hole.
Speaker 1:They should be able to have like a series of tow hitches where that you can create a road train out of them and then one person drives and the rest can shell. That would be very cool. Yeah. We saw some kids bombing around in some some crazy smart cars having a great time.
Speaker 2:Gold Rock says business idea, pay people to blast your ads on JBL speakers and crowded places. I think I think you you could there's you could potentially make a run at that before regulation came came in.
Speaker 1:Shrek it up. Shrek that Twizzy, please. Then okay. So but there's growing unease with companies sticking generative AI features into any and all products and having a little AI gin always whispering in our ears seems like a cautionary tale or a Twilight Zone episode. And yet there will be smart glasses and you and I might even choose to wear them.
Speaker 1:They're technological inevitability, a new consumer tech arms race for the last and best real estate on our bodies. I envision that someday all glasses could be smart glasses, said a man who should know. Zaid, who heads the division of Qualcomm responsible for making the chips that go into the Meta, Snap, and Samsung smart glasses. Who are they for though? The problem with most smart glasses is that it remains unclear what exactly they are for.
Speaker 1:Steve Jobs once said that design is as much about what something does as how it looks. It isn't hard to imagine that were he still alive today, his critique of most of the smart glasses on the market would be scathing tape the snap specs. They are a triumph of engineering, squeezing a fighter pilot's helmets fighter pilot helmets worth of optics and computing into frames that while not exactly svelte or at least at least don't require a chin strap but for what purpose? Snap Chief Executive Evan Spiegel said they could be used for live translation, turn by turn directions, working on the go and
Speaker 2:Has anyone made the motorcycle helmet computer?
Speaker 1:I think they do have fairly advanced helmets these days, snowboarders
Speaker 2:I want I want a personal computer that's shaped as a motorcycle helmet that I can just wear around.
Speaker 1:That would be cool. It'd be like more cyberpunk
Speaker 2:Palmer was teasing a very thin Yeah. Small pair
Speaker 1:Of like aviators.
Speaker 2:Of smart ish looking glasses.
Speaker 1:Yeah. It looked like they had bolted onto just traditional Yeah. Aviators, which were really cool. The catch, you have to be seen in public wearing these to get the most out of it. Your friends and colleagues would need them too.
Speaker 1:And that's assuming the software running on these lightweight computers can live up to the promise. I was thinking about like yeah. Like, should should you should you start with glasses that are woefully underpowered on the battery side? Like, if you if you launch a pair of smart glasses and they're thirty minute battery or something, like, very limited, but they're really light. And so people actually try them and then like, is it better for everyone to complain about how heavy they are or how how how light they are but the battery keeps running out?
Speaker 1:Because at least that's a that's a signal that people are using it to the fullest if they complain. Like if if the VR headset's light, people are, oh, it runs out of battery. I gotta plug it in all the time. It's like, okay. Well, at least you got to that far.
Speaker 1:At least you enjoyed it fully and then you and then you needed, you know, like working on that extension feels like an easier path.
Speaker 2:Senrad dropping nuclear
Speaker 1:Design is how it works. Steve Jobs. There you go.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I continue to believe that the biggest market for smart glasses will continue to be people that need corrective eyewear. Mhmm. Right? Mhmm.
Speaker 2:Over a billion people in that market. And if you have to use glasses all day long
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:You may as well add some smart features. It's a tougher sell for know, people that aren't already dependent on glasses.
Speaker 1:Yeah. I do think that they I I mean, in addition to the traction on the sales figures which are impressive, I'm starting to see more content that's created organically by meta glasses creators.
Speaker 2:But you know what those people are doing? What? In large part?
Speaker 1:They're faking?
Speaker 2:They are jailbreaking the glasses to not show that they're recording. Woah. I didn't Because know so so many of those videos Yeah. If somebody just walked up with a camera in your face, they wouldn't get the same reaction. They'd be like, stop filming me.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. But instead they have like a pretty organic
Speaker 1:So they turn off the light. Action.
Speaker 2:They turn off the light. It's very easy to like basically black it out.
Speaker 1:Sure. Sure.
Speaker 2:Cover it up. I think people have jailbroken them. Probably put nail polish over it. Yeah. But there's like actual jailbreaks that you can basically disable the light.
Speaker 2:Yep. And so a lot of those videos are just like people recording people without their permission or understanding.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:And then just posting posting violation these like
Speaker 1:of social contract.
Speaker 2:Yeah. No. Not even just a little bit. Like a complete and total violation and Yeah.
Speaker 1:But just you don't want to go home. Just never go outside. Just never touch grass. Yeah. Don't know.
Speaker 1:Well, Met is working on a bunch of other stuff. They're working on artificial intelligence. You may have heard. First, before we dig into this, let me tell you about the New York Stock Exchange. Want to change the world?
Speaker 1:Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange. Zephyr says they seem to be pretty focused on coding right now. I'm pretty sure this is the largest coding training data generation effort in the world. They have the compute. 30 to 50% of engineers and core teams have been forcibly forcefully reassigned to data labeling in the ADO org agent data optimization.
Speaker 1:Powell McCormick convened the soiree which capped a packed day of meetings across Wall Street to deliver a message. Meta's radical plan to become a leader in AI will require vast amounts of capital and her door was open to discuss innovative financing structures and partnerships. They might wind up raising billions more to fund the build out of MSL and Meta's AI efforts. One engineer told this reporter that the whole situation feels like the movie The Hunger Games when tributes are randomly selected and then removed from their environment to something completely different except at Meta many more folks are being affected with between three to five from a 10 person team going from building products used by hundreds of millions to giving human feedback on AI generated GitHub repos over and over. So a wider impact than in the Hunger Games with less drastic consequences.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Still air conditioned with free snacks which they are improving apparently. I don't know. It seems
Speaker 2:like Yeah. So what do
Speaker 1:add.
Speaker 2:What so doc is we're gonna have meta code.
Speaker 1:Yeah. I mean, seems like they're trying to have a model that they would sell it on the API or something.
Speaker 2:Yeah. And it's just seems like it's a I
Speaker 1:don't know. It's an entirely new motion. They have done this before though. They at one point, they were trying to compete with Google Workspace and have like a Slack competitor effectively. Like, you could run your company on Facebook spaces and Facebook messenger.
Speaker 1:And I don't think that ever really took off. So it is a new go to market motion, but it is a blur because you don't have to rip everything out. You just port over to this particular endpoint and
Speaker 2:Yeah. It's it's so interesting because
Speaker 1:I'm only good at building
Speaker 2:I I would have expected I was expecting Meta to spend enough money to get the Meta AI, you know, chat, GBT, Gemini, Claude competitor
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:To the top of the charts and keep it there. Mhmm. Because I expected Zuck to think like, hey, if I get people asking questions all day long, I can just target them much better
Speaker 1:Oh, you mean the all my ads for charts?
Speaker 2:Not Yeah. So I expected them to go super hard on consumer. Yeah. They don't have background in enterprise. They bought Manus but even Manus was like sort of unclear what they were going to do over time.
Speaker 2:Maybe they would integrate it into But I expected them to just say like Zach say like, hey, I'm gonna spend a lot of money Yep. And I have billions of users already. I'm gonna do whatever it takes to get a consumer chat app to the top of the charts, keep it there, and over time just focus on this one thing. Yeah. And the Meta AI app sitting at 17 in the App Store right now, you know, not not not nothing.
Speaker 2:But I don't like, the market is not is clearly not like is clearly not sending signals like, hey, we're really excited for you guys to like pivot into enterprise and like Yeah. Spend hundreds of billions of dollars competing against Google, AWS, Microsoft, Google, OpenAI, Anthropic SpaceX. You know, all the Chinese labs, SpaceX, like It's a lot. Like, this would be an absolutely incredible come from behind story. Yeah.
Speaker 2:It would be one for the for the history books if they can do it. Yeah. But I think it's reasonable that the market is saying like, no. They're not pricing it in.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Certainly. Well, there's other news. Zuckerberg directed Meta to build a prediction markets app which is
Speaker 2:Mike Isaac with an incredible scoop.
Speaker 1:Wild shift. The experimental app internally called Arena would be independent of Facebook and Instagram. It could compete for attention with Polymarket and Kalshi, the biggest prediction market, says Mike Isaac.
Speaker 2:Mike says, importantly, the app is currently experimental and will not include using real money. Though insiders have not fully ruled out a future in which that could happen. Do they have a fascinating move. I think sentiment is at near rock bottom.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Walter Gore just had that expose on poly markets advertising and so like the vibes are getting like more
Speaker 2:Well, yeah. So so sentiment on poly on on prediction markets is like I don't know if it's at an all time low. I think users actually like generally Yeah. Like they It's
Speaker 1:like way lower when it was like, oh, we're gonna find out who the next president is. And now it's like, it's a gambling thing for sports. And it's like the vibe has very much shifted.
Speaker 2:Yeah. And I think I think yeah. I mean, a lot of people have had like have have benefited from using prediction markets as a data source.
Speaker 1:Like A lot of people have benefited from sports betting. There's a story about a guy who won $6,000,000 on DraftKings and built a mansion with a bowling alley in it. I'm not kidding. This guy is just like a great poker player and he's won a $1,000,000 he's won he's won over $1,000,000 in fantasy sports, the millionaire maker fantasy sports tournament. He's won it multiple times.
Speaker 1:He's won it like So seven
Speaker 2:what I was saying is prediction markets Disclosure.
Speaker 1:That's what you're saying.
Speaker 2:Revenue's exploding. I think that's a sign that users like the product.
Speaker 1:I
Speaker 2:appreciate them as a data source. I always have. But but sentiment around them broadly is just like bad. Yeah. And then sentiment around Meta
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Is at almost an all time low at least in the capital markets from their employee base. Right? Like people are, you know, very very unhappy.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:And so maybe Zuck is just saying like, f it. Like, can't get it can't get any can't I don't think it can get any worse.
Speaker 1:What's the wait. Okay. Here's a steel man on Arena, the prediction markets app from Meta. If it doesn't use real money, there's way less risk of, like yes, I saw this.
Speaker 2:I know exactly. The LT lock issue?
Speaker 1:Yeah. Instead of a skill issue.
Speaker 2:I've never heard someone say lock issue. Lock issue.
Speaker 1:Good. It's I know you knew
Speaker 2:you were
Speaker 1:gonna look at that. Very funny. Anyway, the Arena bull case. The Arena bull case is if it doesn't use money, you don't run into any of the any of the controversy around like, oh someone's gonna spend their last dollar. They're gonna get addicted to this.
Speaker 1:All this.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Totally believe that they'll never turn on the real dollar.
Speaker 1:But you can still you they so the steel man is that they have not they've gamified everything in the Instagram and Facebook orbit and they actually haven't added pay to play mechanics really. Like it is all like aura farming. You're you're farming for like fake currencies, likes, followers, reposts and tags and story views and there's all these different dopamine hits that you get which of course there's this discussion around addiction and blah blah blah blah blah. But it's not actually money. And so you could imagine if they can make arena and getting points in the arena as rewarding as getting a thousand likes on an Instagram post or a thousand views on a story post.
Speaker 1:They can make people
Speaker 2:People love the status of like making accurate
Speaker 1:A good call. Yeah. Exactly. And so if all of that is integrated and you can go to someone's account and you can see, oh, well they got this many views, they have this many followers, they they're followed by all these cool people and they also have run it up huge on Arena. This is like a high signal account and maybe I should follow it.
Speaker 1:So I don't know. It could be something
Speaker 2:that I think I think part of it I think part of it is like social media is is being is starting to be viewed as something that is as bad Mhmm. As gambling for society. Potentially worth. Sure. Right?
Speaker 2:Potentially worse than gambling. Maybe. And so part of it is just like f it. I think users will like this. They'll use it.
Speaker 2:And you can imagine like Yeah. Making Instagram already one of the most addictive apps ever created and just adding casino functionality to it Yep. So you're gambling with your friends. I I I I'm not, you know, I I think it's this move is like laughable, right?
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:In many ways. Just because it's it's just given the amount of fire that social media is already under, like, you know, this court case, right? The addiction court cases and that. Now it's like, okay, well, like, we're sorry that you think our app is like addictive. Like, you know, we're gonna work this out in the courts.
Speaker 2:But while we do that, like, we're gonna introduce Gambling. Gambling. Yeah. It's like, it is it is just like a very funny move. And I'm sure they just wish I'm sure they wanted to like keep it, you know, under wraps and it's probably an experiment still.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:But but but, you know, not not a not a move that's like very defensible. Right?
Speaker 1:Unless they stick with the no money thing. I I I'm actually I'm thinking that that if there's no money involved whatsoever forever, I don't know that I have a problem with it.
Speaker 2:It's it's potentially if people get so addicted to the status game of making good predictions that they just stopped doing real gambling.
Speaker 1:That could be he's trying to That could be good for society. Wow. I hadn't thought about that. Yeah. They're like That's a good
Speaker 2:about thing. Making real money.
Speaker 1:Okay. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. I'm just thinking I'm thinking that like, yes, the the the the fake currencies, virtual currencies, dopamine hits like Prestige ing on Call of Duty is the the XP in Call of Duty like, yes, you can get too addicted to it and you can just spend all night playing Call of Duty to try and Prestige or level up or whatever.
Speaker 1:You can be hunting for a platinum trophy on some super hard PlayStation game all night and like that can be bad. But it's just a way different thing in terms of like what a what hitting rock bottom looks like when you're not involving real money. Like you could hit rock bottom being like, wow, was scrolling Instagram reels four hours a day and or I was playing Call of Duty all night and couldn't be sleepy at work the next day. Like it can be bad, not good, but it's nowhere near as big as like I lost my college kid my college fund for my kid. I gambled Right?
Speaker 1:It If there's no money, it's just a different conversation. Think you do need to put it in a different bucket.
Speaker 2:Yeah. The other thing is Calshi, it was reported as doing like over 2,000,000,000 of of annualized revenue. Yeah. They're growing very quickly. I I expect them to be well beyond that.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Like if Zuck came in and he got a 100% of the the sort of like online Yeah. Gaming market. Yeah. It could like maybe move the needle a little bit on.
Speaker 2:Yeah. But but but you know, this isn't like a winner take all market. Right? A lot of people like even all the apps are available, they still use their like some friend that has a sports book or whatever. Sure.
Speaker 2:It doesn't really feel like a move that you make when you're spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI. Like you're betting the company on AI. Mhmm. This seems like it like I I'm starting to maybe see that even though Zuck is very good at monetizing applications Mhmm. That it might just be for the pure love of the game.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Rob Flaherty summed up the pushback. I'm at the child brain poisoning company. I'm at the gambling company. I'm at the combination child brain poisoning and gambling company.
Speaker 1:Good reference to Pizza Hut and Taco Bell, a famous one. But feedback to the Kylie Jenner Meta Glasses has been way way better. Wow. Silicon Valley finally figured out who controls consumer spending. This is not finally.
Speaker 1:Meta's been partnering with great celebrities for a really long time. This does not come as a shock to me, but it is the right person to
Speaker 2:And it's so it's so it's fascinating because we were trying to estimate like how much Meta spent on this like partnership campaign. Yeah. I had I was putting it at like somewhere around like 50. I have no information on it. Million?
Speaker 2:It's like 50,000,000. Yeah. Yeah. How much does it cost to get the top influencer
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:In the entire world to do a campaign like this Yeah. And launch a product with you Yeah. You know, maybe something like $50,000,000. Then Alex Heath
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 2:Ethanator Yep. Who we were with
Speaker 1:this Scoop athlete.
Speaker 2:Scoop athlete comes out and scoops that Snap is working on a deal with Robert Downey Jr. To spend a $100,000,000 Yeah. Potentially for a partnership there, which is deeply confusing Okay. For like, you know, a lot of reasons. Like the the the Kylie Meta Yeah.
Speaker 2:Campaign makes a lot of sense. Kylie is like one of the like probably the or one of the top influencers on on Instagram. Yeah. Right? So it's a deep existing partnership.
Speaker 1:Don't know that this can be this isn't deep. It could be a super deep integration. We could be looking at like Iron Man four, Snap Spectacles. And the whole movie could revolve around
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:Iron Man taking off the suit and only using the Snap Spectacles to stop Thanos for the fifth time in a row.
Speaker 2:And and I just don't believe that cool as Robert Downey Junior is, I don't believe that that people are gonna spend $2,195 on these specs because he is in a brand campaign with them. Yeah. Whereas I do feel like Kylie could potentially drive well more than 50,000,000 of sales Totally. Of her
Speaker 1:No. A 100%. Kylie informs purchases at a very different rate. Like, I'm a fan of Robert Downey Junior. I like his movies, but it's very hard for me to close the loop from like, okay, he looked good and was in this suit and so I should go buy that suit.
Speaker 1:Yeah. It's just such
Speaker 2:a And the other the other thing is like the meta glasses are a content creation product. Yeah. Like, that's that's their primary function.
Speaker 1:She's a content creator. One content creator. Yeah. But you're you're completely discounting the possibility that Avengers 12 could be filmed entirely on the Snap Spectacles. What do you think about that?
Speaker 1:Possible. If it is, it's it could be worth it. But, it's hard to underwrite at a $100,000,000. That's a lot of money for it's not a lot of money for Meta at 1,500,000,000,000 in market cap. It is a lot One of point four.
Speaker 1:It is a lot of money for Last snack
Speaker 2:week's number.
Speaker 1:An $8,000,000,000 company.
Speaker 2:Last week's price is not today's What's
Speaker 1:last market cap?
Speaker 2:Seven snack Snap. Snap.
Speaker 1:Seven point two. Not bad. It's only off 5% in the last five days off of this Snap news. It's down 25% over the last month though. It's had a rough go.
Speaker 1:But I don't know. I like I like that the product shipped. I like that there's there's experimentation in competition in in the wearables market. And I do think that like Christopher Mims is correct that like there is an inflection point here that wearables are this new battleground that a lot of companies are are facing. And there's a lot of opportunity with how slow Apple is moving in the category.
Speaker 1:You can go and potentially win. Like, I mean, just just watching your reaction to to this the Meta Glasses launches, it doesn't seem like you're in the category of this is going to get steamrolled by Apple immediately as soon as they launch it. You're like, they might come in and compete, but they are ceding so much territory that that 80% maybe goes to 50% if Apple really succeeds, But it's not gonna be a flip overnight because there's so much brand value, so much style, so many partnerships to the silhouettes of the frame. Yep. And and so many learnings on the actually, like what what people are using these for.
Speaker 2:So Snap sitting at 7,180,000,000 market cap Mhmm. With a projecting 2026 revenue of 6,760,000,000.
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:So anyways
Speaker 1:Let me tell you about Codex. Codex is a powerful workspace for getting work done with AI agents whether you're writing code, analyzing data, creating content, or automating business workflows. Codex helps you move projects forward from start to finish.
Speaker 2:New family of models.
Speaker 1:Oh, yeah?
Speaker 2:Previewing today, GPT 5.6 Soul. Next generation model. Named
Speaker 1:after Soul, bro?
Speaker 2:That's crazy. Yeah. I don't know about that one.
Speaker 1:Anyways $100,000,000 brand deal? Robert Is Downey Junior? No. It's named after the celestial bodies. Soul
Speaker 2:Terra. And Luna. Terra. Cool. And
Speaker 1:size? Like, because I would assume Soul is the biggest, then Terra is the medium, and then Luna's the smallest in terms of the model size.
Speaker 2:Me pull it up.
Speaker 1:It's gonna take a second for people to learn the new the new language there. I I've I have enjoyed the drop down in the ChatGPT app is just like just like how much reasoning do you want? Instant, medium, high, extra high, or pro. And I don't really think of them as separate models now and I've been a fan of that. Like, just use the right tool for the job behind the scenes.
Speaker 1:Anyway, you can dig into that. See if it's going well.
Speaker 2:And of course, by US Government directive, access is limited to only 20 preapproved companies.
Speaker 1:20? That's so small.
Speaker 2:Which is brutal because our very own Dan Shipper will not be able to do a vibe check on it at least.
Speaker 1:He's got to get access soon. But a lot of this comes on the back of the distill gate that's happening in through OPEX as Alibaba has distilled Claude many, many times. And I saw a chart of the amount of tokens that are getting resold off the back of that API, and it is staggering. It's a true somebody was like, they they they professionalized fraud. Yeah.
Speaker 1:Which seems accurate. And so having really tight control, it makes sense in the distilling world. It's still
Speaker 2:very unfortunate. Go back to your other question, so SOL is the frontier model. Terra is a balanced model for efficient everyday work. And then Luna is a fast and affordable model for high volume work.
Speaker 1:Okay. Cool.
Speaker 2:You had
Speaker 1:it right. Well, Rockstar Energy Drink founder Russ Savage, what a name.
Speaker 2:What a name. He put
Speaker 1:five homes on the market for a combined total of just shy of $300,000,000 in hopes of attracting newly rich buyers right after the SpaceX IPO. He says people got liquidity and you are my excellent liquidity. You are my excellent liquidity. Buy my incredible properties. So Rockstar Energy Ring founder and creator and real estate investors putting five homes he owns in Los Angeles, Aspen, Park City on the market for a combined total of two set $297,000,000.
Speaker 1:He's betting that a wave of newly rich buyers will be looking at for luxury homes. We're entering a new stratosphere of top end wealth where there's no limit, said Savage who's been buying, renovating and selling homes across the country for a decade. Where are they gonna buy properties? They're gonna want a ski house and they're gonna want a house in the sun. Savage is asking 85,000,000 for a seven bedroom home on Asprons Red Mountain in Los Angeles.
Speaker 1:He's listing two estates, one for 85,000,000, another for 34,000,000. Park City, he's listing properties for 55,000,000 and 38,000,000. Where is he gonna live? Some he's listed before, but others he's putting on the market for the first time since buying them. Paul Benson, one of Savage's listing agents, is already seeing the impact of these anticipated IPOs across the markets he works in, includes San Francisco and Seattle.
Speaker 1:People employed by SpaceX or OpenAI or Anthropic are being approached by banks and funds with upfront investment cash aiming to lock in early connections with these soon to be ultra wealthy clients because newer construction luxury homes have already been selling well. This will put further strain on supply and I believe it will drive up prices, he says. Savage is also betting on the economy believing it will be strengthened by peace deals. He's long America falling interest rates and a stock market that continues to hit record highs. Savage, 56, sold his beverage brand to PepsiCo for around 4,700,000,000 in 2020 and lives in Florida.
Speaker 1:He started investing in high end real estate after he founded Rockstar Energy in 2001. He said buying luxury homes, redoing them, and living in them until he decides to move somewhere else. He was formally was formally named Russ Weiner but took the name Savage in honor of his father. Political con commentator. Michael Savage?
Speaker 2:Wait. What do you mean took the name
Speaker 1:Wait.
Speaker 2:In honor of his father?
Speaker 1:Michael Savage. Michael Allen Weiner, born 1942, is known by his professional name Michael Savage. He's an American author Okay. Political commentator and activist, former radio host. He's best known as the host of the Savage Nation, an actually syndicated talk show that aired on the talk radio network across The United States until 2021.
Speaker 1:Was the second most listened to radio talk show in the country with an audience of over 20,000,000 listeners. Wow. He's he's sold books.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Doctor Michael Savage has a PhD in nutrition science.
Speaker 1:He's conservative. He has two children. He's still alive and his son is Russell Golden Cloud Weiner who now goes by Russ That is crazy. What a what an insane So his name now is Russ Golden Cloud Savage. He really created a golden cloud with his company.
Speaker 1:He started Rockstar in 2001. What is this?
Speaker 2:Golden packaging.
Speaker 1:Rockstar energy drinks. Yeah. It was golden. It was golden. Or it is.
Speaker 1:He is also the founder and CEO of his own company. He was oh, he just barely snuck in the Forbes list of 500 richest Americans. He's number four ninety four with an estimated net worth of $3,400,000,000 in 2025. His estimated worth net worth is 5,000,000,000. He's done fantastically.
Speaker 1:This is very interesting. He bought the West Hollywood home of basketball player Carlos Boozer for 10,000,000. Listed another home. He lives in Delray Beach. Fascinating.
Speaker 1:Well, good luck to him. Hopefully, if you have some SpaceX liquidity, you can go pick one of these up. They all look fantastic and he's certainly done
Speaker 2:a Let's great work on getting Russ on the show. I would say
Speaker 1:He's an absolute savage.
Speaker 2:I would say Nick, work on it, but somebody is not in the ultra dome today.
Speaker 1:If you if you're trying to build luxury properties, you got to know that there's going to be a small group of hungry savages. Coming after you. Cursors, $60,000,000,000 SpaceX deal. It prices off of the seven day weighted average of the SpaceX closing price before close. The lower the SpaceX stock, the more SpaceX for Cursor holders.
Speaker 1:The deal was announced with SpaceX at $211 per share. Now it's at $1.55, but very stable today at $1.52. Cursor holders are rooting for the stock to keep falling until close somewhat. I can't imagine that they're rooting for it to go down all that much, but all that much. But that is an interesting dynamic that's playing out.
Speaker 1:Also, SpaceX is eyeing a bond sale for the history books, And the Financial Times doesn't like it. Allianz, the insurer, they sounding the alarm. SpaceX's green light for '52 or for $25,000,000,000 bond sale is a clear sign of bubble territory. I mean, at the same time, they got, what, $80,000,000,000 in cash on the balance sheet at this point. Seems like a reasonable debt to equity ratio.
Speaker 1:But let's hear the bear take from Allianz. SpaceX decision to launch a $25,000,000,000 bond sale shortly after raising 86,000,000,000 in a record breaking IPO is a clear sign that the markets are entering bubble territory. Uh-oh. The investment chief at insurance group, Ali Anz, has warned big investors have grown increasingly nervous the company is rushing to raise money in a flurry of big equity and bond deals seizing on record high stock prices and credit spreads close to the tightest in decades could signal a top in frothy markets. SpaceX raising debt so soon after a blockbuster equity issuance was a good example of markets shifting from healthy boom, a stretch boom into bubble territory, said the chief investment officer at Allianz, which manages 800,000,000,000 of assets.
Speaker 2:Elon is hoovering up
Speaker 1:He really is.
Speaker 2:Cash. Someone else was saying, how is X Money paying a 6% yield? You know, people have learned to ask where is the yield coming from? But of course, x.com, the space company
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Whatever whatever cash that they have deposited in xMoney Yeah. I'm sure they're able to use that to Build data centers. Build infrastructure. Yeah.
Speaker 1:No. No. I mean, that that is the thesis there. And I I'd be very interested. They they said it's up to $10,000,000 is insured, 6% yield that's higher than Cash App and many of the other
Speaker 2:Wait. Online confirmed that up to $10,000,000?
Speaker 1:This was in the was in the tweet announcing it. I don't know exactly what level of insurance So
Speaker 2:they actually are are this is not just like
Speaker 1:They said insure. I didn't see FDIC insured. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. But but that that signals that they're not viewing this as like, oh, this is just like a perk to get consumers.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Oh, put in a thousand bucks. It's like, no. Really like random investors can be like, wait, I'm earning 4% in my bond account with my bank. I should move this over to x money and just get the 6%.
Speaker 1:There's a lot of yield hunters and credit card points maxers who just are always hunting for, oh, this this account gives me a good rate of return. And, know, where is the yield coming from? It's a different equation when you have a $100,000,000,000 on the balance sheet. Seems like you can make all the discussions over bubble territory or overvalued but at the same time like you're at the top of the cap table of a really well capitalized company and so you're probably going to get that that yield. At the same time SpaceX is going to potentially raise billions of dollars through this if for for every 100 people that put in $10,000,000 and clip that 6% coupon, they get a billion dollars.
Speaker 1:So could you imagine a thousand people signing up for that, putting 10,000,000 in, getting 6%, and then that's a $10,000,000,000 incremental raise for SpaceX? That seems pretty doable. That doesn't seem like crazy math to me. It's a very different go direct strategy. We've seen other hyperscalers issue corporate debt at those rates, below those rates, around those rates.
Speaker 1:So it doesn't seem crazy. It's just interesting that it's going through this direct channel for the first time as opposed to the more traditional Wall Street path. But the Wall Street path, they're complaining. So go direct, I guess. That's the strategy.
Speaker 1:Anyway.
Speaker 2:MinuteMula says, are we done talking about AI restrictions? I feel that's I feel like that's low key a big deal.
Speaker 1:Yeah. We have some we have some pieces in here about it. We'll we'll we'll go through this. First, let me tell you about CrowdStrike. Your business is AI.
Speaker 1:Their business is securing it. CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches. There's there's more data center backlash. Data centers, how do they work? Theo Von says nobody wants a data center dude.
Speaker 1:And the people that want them to me, they seem kind of evil. Nobody wants this. One of these companies is going own all this information. He had some very funny takes about
Speaker 2:He said emotional credit score. Emotional credit score would
Speaker 1:be weird. Yes. The data center issue needs to be messaged much more clearly. And And and I think There's such a gap between water and the power
Speaker 2:I'm assuming I'm assuming he starts this way but then he says I'm I'm gonna be switching distributing my podcast on
Speaker 1:That's such a bad counter take because truly like the data centers that are required to power the YouTube and podcast stream, it's like so so small compared to what AI is doing in terms of data center construction and and and the power requirements and the build out requirements. I mean, like you fire off one AI agent and you're using like you it's equivalent to YouTube for like ten years probably. But yes, you know, the internet powers lots of things but people have to understand the benefits and the value of these things unless otherwise they're just like why? Why don't we just use the data centers we have? Why do we need new ones?
Speaker 1:And then they also need to be constructed in remote locations, away from housing, quietly with clean energy, with you know, not with a closed loop water system. Like there's a bunch of boxes that if you check them people will be okay with it. But it's certainly slow to actually build up the narrative. Amir over at the information has a little bit of a narrative violation. AI data centers apparently are a godsend for some communities and produce a lot of jobs.
Speaker 1:Union leaders are saying they're great. For instance, three large Wisconsin data center campuses, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle are building. They're supporting almost 10,000 jobs during the building phase which began in 2020 and last through 2028 according to Mandala Partners. When they are fully operational, the facilities will support 6,000 permanent jobs. Nearly a third will be in house highly skilled roles, including seven seventy technicians managing critical mechanical and electrical systems and 700 data center technicians.
Speaker 1:The rest are in the supplier network that provides these facilities. And meanwhile in West Memphis, mayor Marco McClendon recently told me it was quote a stagnant city before Google broke ground last year on a data center just outside its boundaries. The company's investments are now making it easier to recruit other businesses in the city. And also figuring out the correct tax strategy for the data centers seems to be the next sort of domino to fall because Virginia has benefited a lot from the data center build out from AWS. And I believe property taxes are are like unnaturally low for Virginian residences because the government balanced budget the the government budget is balanced towards getting revenue from from the data center build out that's happened in Yeah.
Speaker 1:Virginia. And so they haven't been so such a big deal. Anyway, we should move on to other stuff in AI bans. What's going on? There's a Wall Street Journal article we can read through here.
Speaker 1:OpenAI limits access to new models citing government security concerns. Company says White House review of AI releases shouldn't become long term default. Ban on mythos model remains. OpenAI said it's limiting access to its newest artificial intelligence models after discussions with the Trump administration but warned that the recent trend of the White House restricting industry activity on national security grounds on a case by case basis shouldn't become the norm. The maker of ChatGPT yeah.
Speaker 1:Saw a lot of like safety people being like, this is the worst of both worlds. It's not some sort of like broad reaching apply, you know, just like the rule exists and then everyone can easily comply. It's like the highest touch government intervention and it makes the government have much more power over AI, which is something the safety folks, think, at least the ones that I saw talking about this, were not a fan of.
Speaker 2:Yeah. It's also just like, you know, there's the new it's GLM 5.2
Speaker 1:Yes.
Speaker 2:That people are loving.
Speaker 1:Someone was talking about how they didn't love it in the chat. I don't know what the reviews are. We'll have to talk
Speaker 2:about I don't know. General, there's been a lot of excitement. A lot of people saying like, hey, I could use this as a daily And all the lab leaders have
Speaker 1:said open source is like six months behind. And so now we're like approaching six months past like the last jump in paradigm and like massive cyber capabilities. So those cyber capabilities are coming to fruition in the open source world. The there's an interesting dynamic between the risk of like bio stuff and cyber stuff. So if you have a model that can hack a system, it can usually patch that system for that hack in far less than six months.
Speaker 1:Like, probably in like an hour. It can see, oh, there's an exploit here and we ship the code, merged it in and now that exploit is closed. And so the gap between like finding like you create the hack machine 9,000, you can hack everything but instead you use it for legal reasons, for economic reasons to patch all the systems, that's great. The problem that I'm worried about now is if there is a world where building the counter, like the good version of something, takes longer than six months. So the example I'll give is is in bio.
Speaker 1:So let's say that you have a next generation model. It's really good at finding viruses that if created would wipe out a ton of people. It's also really good at building early warning detection systems and you know counteractive like take this pill and you'll no longer you know be susceptible to that deadly virus that is now possible. That's fine as long as you continue to roll out the biosecurity initiatives first you should be good. Because by the time the open source hacker, nefarious actors, state actors get access to the bioweapon 9,000, you've already patched your society so that you have biorisks, security, early detection, all the different medicines that you need to fight back.
Speaker 1:But if manufacturing all of that and actually deploying the biosecurity, the biorisk, good version takes a year, but the Frontier is only six months behind. You could wind up in a situation where manufacturing the virus is much shorter than manufacturing the antivirus. Now, I don't know exactly how all of that works, if that's real, what the level of risk is there, But that's that's maybe a unique problem, especially if it's a situation where you need to make a lot of the antivirus Yeah. And you only need to make like a small amount of the virus. And so I don't know.
Speaker 2:I I think is is that not exactly how
Speaker 1:I It's possible. I don't know. We'll see. We'll need to talk to more people that understand biosecurity risk and and see where this goes. It's also just harder to like to create bioweapons.
Speaker 1:It's less like like you can, you know, with a with an advanced with a sufficiently advanced model you can you can hack into a, you know, corporate database from your laptop. You do need a something like a bio lab which is not nearly as distributed as laptops, which everyone has. Yeah. But the every
Speaker 2:six months they discover like some Yeah. Like unauthorized bio lab somewhere in The US Totally. That, you know, has a bunch of existing viruses. Yeah. Very concerning.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Very risky. Well, let's go back to the OpenAI news. OpenAI followed a similar process with versions of GPT 5.5 like cyber which demonstrated an ability to discover vulnerabilities in software that could be used in cyber attacks. The similar capabilities of Anthropix Mythos models prompted the White House to increase its oversight of the industry and overhaul its light touch approach to AI.
Speaker 1:There was, of course, that news that the NSA commented that Mythos was able to hack into a bunch of their systems. That was during a red teaming exercise like so they had a red team deliberately try to hack the systems probably from within the network to some degree. Still scary but not some unintended behavior, which I think is good news. The unprecedented intervention led Anthropic to halt all access to comply with the new rule. Anthropic had previously worked with the administration on a limited rollout of an earlier version of Mythos.
Speaker 1:And OpenAI said it hoped to make 5.6 generally available in the coming weeks and that the government's current approval process represents a transition period while President Trump's recent executive order on model oversight is implemented. Quote, we don't believe this kind of government access process should become the long term default. It keeps the best tools from users, developers, enterprises, cyber defenders, and global partners who need them, the company said in a blog post, we are taking this short term step because we believe it is the strong strongest path to broader availability. The latest anthropic models have been shut down for two weeks. There's a move in prediction markets, which controversial but very useful sometimes.
Speaker 1:It seems like Fable might be coming back. The the market's like jumping all over the place. So someone seemingly knows something, but it does seem like all of these delays are being worked through actively, especially as the open source frontier advances. It feels less and less reasonable to keep closed source models locked away.
Speaker 2:Well, why is the open source model frontier advancing? It's because the models are widely available.
Speaker 1:Well, is is that what's going on? Because
Speaker 2:Distillation. Yeah. Like like a minute in the chat says I think we're headed toward a future where frontier models will just be completely cut off from everyone else, national security asset treatment, no distillation from anyone allowed. Like, if you make these models available Yeah. Like, clearly, if you make the models available Yeah.
Speaker 2:Through everyday consumer subscriptions, there will be groups that will create networks of, you know, thousands of accounts and distill the models. And then you're giving away this like advanced capability. Whether whether or not that causes like, you know, these sort of like doomsday Yeah. Scenarios, It's, you know, not not entirely clear. Yeah.
Speaker 2:But it's clear that the open source, you know, frontier will just, you know, continue to lag the the closed source frontier until the distillation problem is solved.
Speaker 1:Yeah. I was listening to Ian Bremmer on foreign policy podcast. He just wrote a piece about Breminator? The Breminator. We gotta have him on.
Speaker 1:He's he's fantastic. But he was pointing out a problem with the the sort of like individually targeted regulation of AI. Like like Besant brought all the bankers together because America's very strong in the banking sector to address AI, but that doesn't include infrastructure because our our global infrastructure is not particularly like, don't have the largest infrastructure companies in the world.
Speaker 2:Do you think
Speaker 1:And so we're very, like, piecemeal on this. And Yeah.
Speaker 2:Do you think
Speaker 1:he says that, like, it's he's calling for much more integration between what's happening in commerce and what's happening in the finance world and then also what's happening in in also
Speaker 2:You think Meta's stock would pop if Zuck could go get a preliminary ban? Yeah.
Speaker 1:On some of their
Speaker 2:new models?
Speaker 1:The aura farm of the ban, it does seem to be working. It's too powerful. You gotta ban the next next version of says,
Speaker 2:I love these boys only episodes, classic TBPN. So do we. Yeah. So do we. We might we might need to run a a no no interview week.
Speaker 2:That'd good. An interview cleanse.
Speaker 1:Yeah. We yeah. We could do that. Yeah. I don't know I don't know where it goes.
Speaker 1:It's tough because yeah, like some of that some of those problems that you identified about the advancing open source frontier mass distillation, that doesn't seem like you can there's a regulatory solution for it that maintains open access. Like, that's the trick. Is it like
Speaker 2:Yeah. No. Then there's a scenario where it's there's only, you know, you have to be Yeah. Only the largest, most trustworthy companies in the world. Yeah.
Speaker 2:And that feels like a really dark
Speaker 1:know who did actually push back in an interesting way was Bill Gurley. And he, I mean, he was taking aggressive shots. But one take he had that was somewhat resonant with me was he said, you know, if these models are so smart, can't they detect distillation attacks? And so there is a world where the closed source frontier advances to a point where you can mitigate distillation attacks much more effectively and be instead of a white list, you have a ban list. And so you're banning organizations that are trying to distill, but the models are still pretty much widely available.
Speaker 1:You're still playing whack a mole constantly, but you have AGI in doing the whack a mole. And so you have, you know, the the best possible model going around and understanding, wait, that's a weird behavior. Why is that person asking for that for those tokens over and over and over again? Let's ban them. And maybe the bans are happening all the time on an individual basis and the ban list is huge.
Speaker 1:But the allow list is generally available and so most companies and individuals can just sign up. Would be an interesting outcome.
Speaker 2:Well, I think we should switch gears Yep. And go through the new SoftBank. Yes.
Speaker 1:A lot of people have been talking about this for a long time. Masa kind of tied it up in a bow for everyone. Where do we get started with Masayoshi Son from SoftBank? He he says that the true source of value
Speaker 2:Let's pull up this
Speaker 1:golden egg factory inside
Speaker 2:of your the deck though and just go right from the beginning. Okay. We can go through the whole thing.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:Let's get it up on the big board.
Speaker 1:Group.softbank. Group.softbank. They have a TLD? What? That's a cool TLD.
Speaker 1:They just own dot softbank? Can you just go to www.softbank?
Speaker 2:We are getting it up on the big board. SoftBank Group. They're
Speaker 1:ASR. Artificial Super Intelligence. JPY 1 quadrillion. What is s b g? Southbank Group.
Speaker 1:Fifty year life plan, twenties. Get acknowledged.
Speaker 2:You gotta you gotta you gotta wait.
Speaker 1:The team's pulling it up.
Speaker 2:You gotta wait for
Speaker 1:They're working on it. They're working on it. They'll get there.
Speaker 2:Oh, we updated this with D1. Go. Here we go.
Speaker 1:Pull it up. Yeah. This is Okay. Next slide. Next slide.
Speaker 2:Alright. Alright. So Ben, if you could read through this while we get set up.
Speaker 1:No. Don't do this.
Speaker 2:Go to the next one.
Speaker 1:ASI, artificial super intelligence. This is happening, baby. You got the Notably,
Speaker 2:I think that this looks like this doesn't necessarily look like it was generated. Think this I think this is a vintage Vintage. This is a vintage asset.
Speaker 1:This is Shutterstock. Right?
Speaker 2:Yeah. This is Shutterstock. I think he's trying to say like, hey, the image models are good but they're not image superintelligence.
Speaker 1:Also, that's like 5,000 neurons. Like that would do absolutely nothing. That's like worse than like a fly brain if you actually count the connections.
Speaker 2:Anyway Some people have said that I have 5,000.
Speaker 1:J p y one quadrillion. What's the plan to get to one quad? 1,000,000,000,000 is out. We're going to quads. That's the next slide.
Speaker 1:Anybody? There we go. Keep going.
Speaker 2:Keep going.
Speaker 1:What is s p g? Keep going. I want to see the fifty year of a life plan.
Speaker 2:What is
Speaker 1:Get acknowledged. Okay. Finance war chest, forties take on a challenge.
Speaker 2:What is what is the version like rise to power?
Speaker 1:Yes. Yes. Yes.
Speaker 2:Like controversy Yeah. Downfall Expansion of power. Anyways, okay. So 30, he's getting his finance war chest.
Speaker 1:It's early life, rise to power.
Speaker 2:He didn't even decide to
Speaker 1:take Expansion of power, regime, coup, trial and execution.
Speaker 2:So note notice here, he didn't even take on a challenge until his forties. Wow.
Speaker 1:It's never too late. Finance a war chest during his thirties.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. But that wasn't a challenge for him.
Speaker 1:I like that sixties handover
Speaker 2:fifties just fully complete the business.
Speaker 1:Complete. Job's finished.
Speaker 2:It's complete. The job was finished. Okay. But he hands it over
Speaker 1:Hands it over to the next generation. But then go to the Plot twist. 60. It's the sixty year life plan. Wait.
Speaker 1:He's not handing it over to the next generation. He is continuing at the reins. Next slide. He wants to realize ASI in
Speaker 2:his I'm not I'm not I'm not done yet.
Speaker 1:The real challenge begins.
Speaker 2:ASI platform provider, the real challenge begins.
Speaker 1:Again, not AI generated. This is Shutterstock. He knows it. He goes to the PowerPoint manually, picks and images.
Speaker 2:He's trying to send a signal to the OpenAI team that that there's still room for improvement.
Speaker 1:Constraint on humanity's evolution, intelligence execution, health care, education, research, caregiving, cybersecurity, all good markets. That makes sense. What's the next thirty year vision? Bring the brain
Speaker 2:to This is from 06/25/2010. Wow. So Coexistence with intelligence. Sixteen years ago.
Speaker 1:Yeah. He's getting there. ASI brain computer, physical ASI intelligent robots. He basically nailed it. We got the brain computer.
Speaker 1:AI that answers, AI is acts. Workflow automations. This is
Speaker 2:way over. I'm starting to kind of feel like some of this is AI generated. So you can kind of see him getting a little bit Yeah. AGI. More AGI pill Potentially.
Speaker 2:As the deck goes on.
Speaker 1:But he does need a he does need huge amount of credit for for calling the shot on ASI like a decade before AI 2027. Everyone's like, oh, they nailed it. The there's gonna be government conflict in mid twenty twenty six. That was like a twelve month prediction. This guy was calling a decade
Speaker 2:hyperstitioned it. He did, potentially. That's the manifestation. Yeah. You were saying this is manifestation Manifestation.
Speaker 2:For the
Speaker 1:Humans will not be replaced. They will evolve through ASI. Okay. Physical AI, robots for high risk work, rescue from disasters, solve labor shortages. They have the AI model, OpenAI.
Speaker 1:Have the semiconductor arm, AI infrastructure and robot. Just robot is the next one. New intelligence. We need to skip to the golden goose. That's the highlight of the slide.
Speaker 1:Oh, so they're doing 10 gigawatt Ohio project, five gigawatts in France, robot. Yes. Keep going. A little bit more. A little bit more.
Speaker 1:And then wait here. Keep going. One more. One more. This one.
Speaker 1:Oh, the the text actually looks pretty good on this on this screen. On my screen, it's really hard to read. But this is hilarious just the level of like like highlight control u underscore that. It's like in terms of like design, like and and putting the white text over the white robot, very edgy design consideration.
Speaker 2:No. He he you know, the the slides are funny because it's such a big company Yeah. And they seem, like, relatively unsophisticated Yeah. But they work. They communicate ideas
Speaker 1:They do.
Speaker 2:In a simple way.
Speaker 1:Okay. Let's keep going. I want to get to the golden goose. Oh yeah, here we go. Okay.
Speaker 1:So he's planning for a quadrillion of value or something like that. Okay.
Speaker 2:Okay. So yeah, sixteen years ago.
Speaker 1:Equity of value of holdings 5,000,000,000,000.
Speaker 2:The
Speaker 1:golden gears five golden eggs. This is such a great the net debt shareholder value is three eggs. It's such a good metaphor. Goose was not valued. See, is something
Speaker 2:Goose value?
Speaker 1:People saying. This have has been like a VC talking point on the podcast circuit for a long time. It's nice to see Masa like put it out there, but like Anans have been tweeting this for a long
Speaker 2:time. Yeah. Well, and a lot of VCs realized that the goose was not valued either. Yeah. Right?
Speaker 2:And so they started raising, you know, selling secondary
Speaker 1:It was in a lot of LP ducks. A lot of ducks were saying goose was not valued.
Speaker 2:Yeah. So now LPs are saying, hey, I'll buy some of the management companies.
Speaker 1:It was kind of like a meme in Silicon Valley. People would just say, oh
Speaker 2:Goose was not valued.
Speaker 1:Yeah. We're we're so early. Goose was not valued.
Speaker 2:Yeah, you you'd have an exit in your portfolio and people were like, how was it? You'd be like, it was good, but goose was not valid.
Speaker 1:Goose do not lay eggs eggs do not lay eggs? That's the next slide. Eggs do not lay eggs. It was the The goose. That created the value.
Speaker 2:Which is
Speaker 1:is hard to deny. Goose. Do we have the clock on
Speaker 2:the board? No. We gotta get we gotta get a goose. We gotta we gotta other Brutal. We got the rest of the farm, but we gotta get goose that's up there.
Speaker 1:Shareholder value. 15 x in sixteen years, 25 x in sixteen years. They're at 74,000,000,000,000. What matters is not the eggs. It is the
Speaker 2:goose itself. The power to keep laying eggs.
Speaker 1:Power to keep laying eggs. The eggs. Over the next sixteen years, he's going to one quad.
Speaker 2:I want to get this like as a print to put up. Maybe not in my home, but maybe in the garage. Yep. Because like the statement what matters is not the eggs, it is the goose itself. The power to keep laying eggs.
Speaker 2:Like if you're going, you're waking up in the morning, you go to get in your car, you just see that. It's a reminder that like it's not about like the value is in yourself, right? The power to keep laying eggs, Yeah. Right? Like having that like Having that goose mentality Yes.
Speaker 2:To start the day
Speaker 1:Goose maxing.
Speaker 2:Priceless. Yes. Priceless.
Speaker 1:The true source of value.
Speaker 2:I love sprinkling in just like the goose and egg slides with like nav slides and projections.
Speaker 1:Like it's very Keep going. One more. There we go. This is beautiful.
Speaker 2:The golden egg factory inside the goose.
Speaker 1:What what happened here? Is the
Speaker 2:The true source of value, the golden egg factory inside the goose. So the golden egg factory Yeah. Of course it's inside the goose. The goose is what lays the eggs. It's an internal mechanism.
Speaker 1:It's also not a biological process. It's an industrial process.
Speaker 2:See here, it really is like yeah. It's an internal mechanism Yes. In the goose Yes. And you have this sort of like automated Yeah. Conveyor belt producing these ASI eggs.
Speaker 1:Yeah. ASI are the eggs. It's interesting
Speaker 2:Let's go to the next one because I think it kind of clarifies how to understand the market capitalization of SoftBank Group. You know, you need to he's feeling like, okay, like you're just valuing me for my eggs. Yep. I want you to value me based on my egg value and My goose value. My goose value.
Speaker 2:That's the path to the quadrillion.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Right? This is something they they don't teach you this at Harvard Business School. Realizing AI, this is his plan. And it is an optimistic message.
Speaker 1:Happiness for everyone through ASI. It is funny. Mean, a lot gets lost in translation. He has a very funny aesthetic. But, you know, I don't know.
Speaker 1:I agree with a lot of this. Like, there's the the like like, the models are good. Stuff is valuable. I don't know. It's it's it's very funny to see one of these some of these slides.
Speaker 1:But it's a good time. Softbank Group always delivers. Always delivers. It's funny. You have to imagine that there's like someone over there who's been like, maybe we should like punch up the design aesthetics and just like, no.
Speaker 1:We got a good thing going. I mean, maybe it's like the Warren Buffett version of like the the Berkshire Hathaway website never needs a never needs a rebrand. Doesn't need to go with the linear aesthetic at any point in time. Anyway, if you're making a deck and you're taking a different path, you probably want to open up Figma. Agents meet the canvas.
Speaker 1:Your AI agents can now create and modify your Figma files with design system context. Masa, if you're listening, jump on Figma for the next one. We'd love to
Speaker 2:see it. And not even because we want you to change the aesthetics of your decks or the style or the way ideas are communicated, but purely because it'll make it faster and more efficient for the team. Yes. And you'll be able to collaborate more efficiently.
Speaker 1:Yes. Anyway, there's
Speaker 2:Speaking of decks Yes. Character AI deck from 2021. It's been floating around.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:Which I guess came out in a lawsuit.
Speaker 1:Yeah. I wonder why but this is from 2021, December 8, a lifetime ago in artificial intelligence, just five years. It's crazy. Two year run acquisition by Google, two years there. Now Gnome is over at OpenAI about Gnome.
Speaker 1:And this is another good deck. Like, are you seeing this? This has the same it has the same it has similar level of aesthetics in the sense that it's like like very simple in its design.
Speaker 2:Yeah. The lesson in here and and I I've always said when working on decks, like Yeah. If the deck is not compelling when it's black and white Yeah. And there's not even any visuals inside Yeah. The the final product even if designed, you know, beautifully will not be compelling.
Speaker 2:Yeah. So like the the actual content, the words are what matter most and and here you have Noam
Speaker 1:being He says he's always into AI. Early days of Google, he created the spell checker, Did You Mean, first targeting system for AdSense, a topic clustering model and then other large scale ML systems. Noam and LLMs, in 2016 he predicted that large neural language models are the future. Wow. Goated.
Speaker 1:Goal, invent critical innovations and make them available to the world. Guts of the transformer architecture, distributed computing strategy, high performance sparsity, optimization fast, decoding long sequences. He also says the goose was not valued. That's interesting. I guess he's been I he said that earlier.
Speaker 2:Was Wow.
Speaker 1:He was talking about it in in 2016, the lack of goose value. Yeah.
Speaker 2:I mean, he said what matters is not the eggs. It is the what what matters is not the models. It's the the
Speaker 1:The architecture.
Speaker 2:It's the goose itself. Yes. True value is the power to keep making models. Yes. And
Speaker 1:But it's so funny. I I think this is a dig at OpenAI, but it's also testament to his his contributions. GPT three according to several OpenAI employees. OpenAI was directionless, attended Gnome's talk in 2018, took notes and implemented. This became GPT three, continued to monitor and implement many of Gnome's papers.
Speaker 1:And he also referenced So funny. Kevin Lacker says GPT three can't quite pass a coding phone screen, but it's getting closer in 2021. GitHub Copilot based on GPT three. About Daniel, he talks about other products. And it's just a fun read to see, you know, starting a company.
Speaker 1:Want to capitalize on future innovations. Left Google a month ago. Lots more inbound interest from top people. Lots of interest from angels and VCs taking first seed note. Yeah.
Speaker 1:Vision capabilities. His use cases are interesting too. It says version zero, million use cases. Fun and interesting conversations, companionship, recommendations, foreign language practice, practice social situations, assistive writing. The whole idea with character AI was that you'd be able to pick an individual person to talk to.
Speaker 1:I remember I demoed it and I was like, I want to talk to Joseph Stalin and try and convince him that capitalism is the best system or something. I wanted to like I wanted to like have a debate with the communist successful? No. It was it was it was very funny because the the base model was so r l'd against like communism and and like all the famine and Russian like expansionism that had happened in World War two that it it like was sort of I was very quickly able to convince Stalin that he was bad.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I know. You were successful.
Speaker 1:Yeah. I was basically successful.
Speaker 2:Take full credit.
Speaker 1:And I was like that doesn't feel like actually yes.
Speaker 2:And you came out on top.
Speaker 1:Yes. But it was it was an unsatisfactory experience because it felt like I was talking to an American sort of LARPing as Stalin instead of like the real Stalin. But it was interesting. Talks about life coaching, customer support, personal assistance, home automation, all things that are coming to real life either through base models or application layer products on top. The mode is just quality, quality, quality.
Speaker 1:The best research engineers, the most intelligent products, the highest usage, and large compute cloud. He says it costs $1,000,000 to train GPT three. Smarter model is more expensive. Company plan, buy some GPUs, evaluating buy versus cloud, train a GPT three size model in three weeks. Total spend, 20,000,000 to 30,000,000 in the first year.
Speaker 1:Anyway, lots of fun there. Where else should we go? There's other there's other OpenAI news. I mean, the the chip Jalapeno launched designed with Broadcom. Jalapeno is purpose built for LLM workloads powering Chachapiti Codex API, future agentic products.
Speaker 1:Very exciting.
Speaker 2:Crazy crazy crazy timeline here. What? Just how quickly they were able
Speaker 1:Oh, yeah. Yeah. A lot of people are saying like this is the first chip designed with AI agents in the loop so you can write the instructions set much quicker. Sort of unclear exactly
Speaker 2:You got to give a lot of credit to the humans on both sides.
Speaker 1:Involved, but it is just cool because for a long time, it was like, it'll take five years to launch a chip. And now companies are clearly doing it faster. And so the the the the go to market cycle is tightening for a variety of reasons. Also, apparently, OpenAI made deals to purchase 40% of the global raw undiced DRAM wafer output until 2029. Millions of raw DRAM wafers that cannot be used until they're processed.
Speaker 1:Paul Buchheit says smart move going deeper and deeper into the supply chain. Always always interesting moves from the deals guy at the top.
Speaker 2:Speaking of timelines
Speaker 1:Yes.
Speaker 2:People are comparing GTA six with the Burj Khalifa.
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:Burj Khalifa was built for 1 and a half billion dollars and took six years.
Speaker 1:Wow.
Speaker 2:Apparently, GTA six is $2,000,000,000 and it's taking twelve years. But but at the same time, people really have said like it is the Burj Khalifa of video games.
Speaker 1:It's got two Burj Khalifas.
Speaker 2:I we are are gonna have a very special episode on launch day. So I'm looking forward to that. Yeah.
Speaker 1:Let me tell you about Console. Console builds AI agents that automate 70% of IT, HR and finance support giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets. We got about this this LED lamp.
Speaker 2:Okay. Philips introduced Skylight, a ceiling mounted LED panel that makes windowless rooms feel like they have a sky facing window. Mhmm. It uses Signify's Nature Connect tech to create the depth, brightness, and color shifts
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:Of natural daylight. Phillips also follows the sun throughout the day moving from cool, warmer light to warmer evening tones. So, yeah, do you think they can, like, basically understand your location and where you are and your orientation with the sun to actually make, you know, actually track where would the sunlight exactly Yeah, so this got so much hate because the the obvious solution if you don't have sunlight is to go get some, walk outside Yeah. Touch grass.
Speaker 1:Or just carry a flashlight around.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Carry a flashlight around and just point it at your face is one
Speaker 1:if you're in a dark room and you want to see something over there, point the flashlight at it. It's easy. But
Speaker 2:I have my first apartment Yeah. When I moved after college Yeah. Was a very I had a very funny room. It the only window in the room opened up to a public courtyard Yeah. In the apartment building Yeah.
Speaker 2:Which made it just completely not a viable window at all. Yep. Like why do you want it felt like actually being in a fish tank
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:It was terrible. Probably would have like enjoyed having one of these. We also are in a wind a bit of a windowless room here ourselves. So I saw this and I was like Yep. Woah.
Speaker 1:We should get a
Speaker 2:bunch of these. And so yeah, was seeing all the hate for this and sort of getting it. But I think even throughout my life I've just realized that humans are like advanced cats. Yeah. Like, we sort of just migrate to where there's like the feet, you know, amount of light.
Speaker 2:Totally. I think the question is, if you're in a building that has these, does it actually make like, does it act like, does it trick your animal brain into feeling like, yes, I'm in a sunlit room. I'm getting the benefits of sunlight. Or will people still like, you know, try to congregate around the areas with natural light?
Speaker 1:Yeah. Mean, it seems like a like a like an upgrade even if it's not a 100% of the way there. It's maybe 80% of the way there and it feels good. I don't know. How much are these?
Speaker 1:Do we know yet? I'm very interested to see how much they how much they charge for this. There's some there's some cool stuff here. Let's see what people are saying. I'm prepared to buy 20 of these.
Speaker 1:I've been looking for something like this since I moved into a seller.
Speaker 2:Well, this person is he's obviously joking. No. I know. It's amazing. 580 USD.
Speaker 2:From waveform. He's Just under $600.
Speaker 1:$600? Yeah. I think I don't know. I I think that there's a very simple swap out of those can lights, those can l you know the can LEDs that go into like ceilings? Normally, it's like pretty standard in a modern house.
Speaker 1:You go and you click a button on the wall and there's just like a bunch of can LEDs. And the alternative to that was like those fluorescent tubes that you see in like old office buildings that was like really bad. But I I could imagine just having these even in rooms with with, you know, windows. It's probably just a nicer light source than a can light or a fluorescent panel, but probably not a full substitute for a nice window with a view that's actually reality. Yeah.
Speaker 1:But why not put these all over the place if they look good and they're they're effective? I I bet you you must be able to use them as like normal lights at night too. Right? Or is it just for taking a somewhat dark space during the day and brightening it up? You can
Speaker 2:use them to trick yourself into thinking it's
Speaker 1:Turns like a casino.
Speaker 2:And when you're in a forty eight hour video game bender.
Speaker 1:Yeah. If you want to make your house more like a Las Vegas casino where you can't tell what time it is, suck a little bit of the oxygen out, they should make an add on for that. Reduce the oxygen level and then keep the lights. You know, there's that one in Paris or not in Paris. It's called Paris, think, in Las Vegas.
Speaker 1:And it has this weird like blue sky that never turn the lights off in. So when you walk through the casino, you're just like, oh, it feels like 2PM and so you never leave. Never leave.
Speaker 2:Bernie Sanders. Tim Cook. Tim Cook.
Speaker 1:So Apple raised prices on basically everything. They held back on a few few devices but Bernie Sanders is mad about it. Says corporate greed is Tim Cook, the billionaire CEO of Apple. Not anymore. He's on the way out.
Speaker 1:Soon to be ex CEO of Apple, claiming that hiking prices on Apple products by over $200 is unavoidable after it made a 112,000,000,000 in profit last year and spent 310,000,000,000 on stock buybacks.
Speaker 2:Gabe says this product is banned from the Ultradome. Can't be giving the boys a sense of time. So we get longer chess.
Speaker 1:Yeah. The price acts aren't unavoidable. They're unacceptable. And so apparently, Apple spent $990,000,000,000 on stock buybacks in fiscal twenty twenty five. But he's like correct.
Speaker 1:I I think Apple's reduced. I think Apple has returned a trillion dollars to shareholders. So my number would actually be north of $310,000,000,000. But we live in a competitive market, and this is an opportunity for other companies because if Apple's raising prices, that's a better value prop for a Chromebook or someone else who figures out how to optimize memory and not have a price hike or
Speaker 2:I just think like saying that like corporate greed is Tim Cook when the guy's barely clipping 35 a year after taxes
Speaker 1:It's true.
Speaker 2:Is rude and unnecessary.
Speaker 1:Yeah. But the reason is of course
Speaker 2:Like I didn't see Bernie marching on Cupertino when Tim was, you know, on his run, generational run being dramatically underpaid relative many of the other CEOs. So I just think I just think crazy crazy person to put in your crosshairs.
Speaker 1:Joe Weisenthal summed it up well. Says Micron market cap is up a $150,000,000,000 today. Apple's market cap is down 210,000,000,000, almost a perfect perfect value reallocation hinging on memory. Memory is expensive and so everyone is rotating over to to Micron from Apple. Here are the actual facts from the Germinator.
Speaker 1:Apple raises Mac, iPad, home prices to counter memory shortage. The Apple TV got hit hard. It went from like $130 to $200 or $2.50. So it saw the highest percentage price increase, which is odd because I didn't think that the Apple TV was particularly memory intensive product, but it's certainly not Apple's core. So maybe they offset a little bit of the pain there.
Speaker 1:The company is increasing prices of the MacBook Neo, which is the new laptop that was the cheapest MacBook ever made, $500 with the educational discount. The MacBook Pro is going up in price. MacBook Air, iPad Air, iPad Pro. Starting price of the MacBook Neo is rising to $700 from 600, while the MacBook Air is increasing to 1,300 from 1,100. So a $200 price increase for the MacBook Air.
Speaker 1:The entry level 14 inch MacBook Pro is moving to $2 from 1,700, While the 11 inch iPad Pro is increasing to 1,200 from 1,000. IPad Air mid tier tablet now priced at $7.50 up from 600. The price hikes are global. And congratulations to, no, Ben Thompson lost his bet to John Gruber. Gruber won.
Speaker 1:They had a bet over whether or not Apple would raise prices due to all of the all of the memory
Speaker 2:the CEO Micron was sort of like hinting at some some basically negotiations that had happened years ago. Apple is very aggressive in their supplier negotiations and he was basically insinuating that it was like Apple's like very sort of aggressive negotiating that made it impossible for Micron to be reinvesting and increasing production. I think this was like in like 2021. Yeah. So anyways, complicated.
Speaker 1:Interesting. Well, gamers are already mad at AI about driving up the price of GPUs and memory and now you will have the Apple fanboys potentially upset as well. So I don't know, Bernie, why not, you know, some subsidies? Subsidy subsidize Apple. Keep those prices down.
Speaker 1:No.
Speaker 2:The answer
Speaker 1:is obviously to build more build more capacity, build more memory, bring the price down, let the market clear as quickly as possible. Micron, of course, is a trillion dollar company headquartered in Boise, Idaho. Very cool.
Speaker 2:We got to talk about small trucks.
Speaker 1:Small trucks?
Speaker 2:It's time to talk about small trucks.
Speaker 1:Okay. First, let me tell you about Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform that lets you grow with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces, and now with AI agents.
Speaker 2:Trucks. Trucks. Before we talk about the slate truck
Speaker 1:Yes.
Speaker 2:We gotta talk about Rio Industries. Oh. Started in '19 this is the week of this is maybe the year of the small truck. Yep. Rio Industries started in nineteen o five, reborn in 2026.
Speaker 2:Mhmm. They are undercutting the slate. They're starting This is so
Speaker 1:crazy.
Speaker 2:They're starting at $21,500 for a four cylinder gas engine. Yeah. They heard you, John. John has been this whole week, John's been thinking, man, that slate truck is awesome, but what had if a gas engine?
Speaker 1:You can do it.
Speaker 2:They're coming out. It's a four cylinder gas engine, manual and automatic transition, body on frame, four wheel drive, 600 mile tank, brand Wow.
Speaker 1:They have their head to head with the slate truck right there.
Speaker 2:Texas built. Yeah. Texas built. So it's the Texas the Texan response to the slate truck. Not a lot of other information, but
Speaker 1:Scroll down on the website, you can see that there's a how it stacks up, the Rio runabout versus the Ford Maverick versus the slate truck. They claim to be cheaper, more proven with their gas engine.
Speaker 2:Yeah. So haters
Speaker 1:600 miles on a tank.
Speaker 2:Haters and critics of the small truck boom are pointing to the
Speaker 1:Are you trying to get Brandon's attention?
Speaker 2:Yeah. Brandon is Bring him in here. Not in the room anymore, I guess.
Speaker 1:Bring him in here. Oh, he had to run. He's scared.
Speaker 2:Yeah. He's scared to have
Speaker 1:this But conversation on
Speaker 2:yeah, the the haters and critics of the small truck boom are saying the the Ford Maverick XL already exists. Yep. Has a lot of the bells and whistles.
Speaker 1:What is the Ford is the Ford Maverick XL a four door? Yeah. Right.
Speaker 2:Must be.
Speaker 1:I think the Ford Maverick in general is a four door. Right? Because every two door truck has failed. There are no successful two door trucks. Two doors is something people think they want.
Speaker 1:They look at it. They say, oh, that's so compact. That's so easy. And then they realize that they will want to easily put their family in the back without sliding the seats forward. And so the demand just never shows up and everything winds up being four doors.
Speaker 1:And that's why you get these weird things really. Think it I think it's so small relative
Speaker 2:to six months. Never been they've all failed because like
Speaker 1:Name once
Speaker 2:the Ford success. The Ford Ranger was produced for many many many years. It's a two door truck. My grandpa It's
Speaker 1:around anymore.
Speaker 2:My grandpa well, it's around
Speaker 1:As a four door?
Speaker 2:No. It's around.
Speaker 1:As a two door?
Speaker 2:My dad still owns my grandpa's old truck.
Speaker 1:I mean
Speaker 2:It still runs perfectly.
Speaker 1:Are they still selling them? They produced the first
Speaker 2:gen Ranger from 1983
Speaker 1:to 1992. Vehicle like the e class Mercedes is still on sale like what fifty years later. Right? The BMW five series is still on sale. Like, certain cars, they go through iterations.
Speaker 1:They have facelifts and new designs, but they stay around. Seeing hundreds
Speaker 2:of of two door
Speaker 1:You're looking at used cars. That doesn't count. I'm talking about a company that's been in the market and decided, yes, it makes sense to keep this in the model lineup for the next revision instead of going only four doors. And so that is the problem that a lot of these cars will see. There's a lot of demand, a lot of stated preference, but the revealed preference is always for the four door four door configuration, at least in America.
Speaker 1:I do think that there might be something interesting with shortening the nose. It's a very odd aesthetic decision. But if you actually want a small truck with four doors and a full size bed and you're going electric, you could, in theory, remove the front engine, the front trunk, and push the cab much further forward. It would look a lot more like a bus. People would probably not like the aesthetics.
Speaker 1:But in terms of functionality, you kind of get everything you want there because the front area of a Rivian truck is kind of doing nothing. Like, it's a nice extra storage space and they put a bunch of equipment there. But that equipment can be distributed throughout the rest of the vehicle. But I don't know. So it would be a big uphill battle to make that look cool because it would look like a
Speaker 2:Volkswagen ID. So the bear case for the Slate is twofold. Maverick XL already exists.
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 2:And it's $27. The slate is sort of bundling in I think some of the taxes and fees into their price, so it's not an entirely fair comparison. But they're doing a lot of stuff really well. I think the way that they take basically one SKU and make it so customisable that it can feel like an SUV, it can feel like a Jeep, it can feel like a basic truck. I all I can say in terms of like how successful this will be is like I think I'll get one just because it seems like a fun car to drive around on the weekend.
Speaker 2:Mhmm. And and there's just like a bunch of fun Are
Speaker 1:you gonna go track only?
Speaker 2:I wish I wish they had a track only.
Speaker 1:It's just an extra $400,000
Speaker 2:And yeah. So so who who knows how
Speaker 1:Start with a 25 k base and then add a $400,000 track only package?
Speaker 2:Who knows who knows how this will go? But I think that that the like infinite customization so that people can make it feel fun and
Speaker 1:feel It's like very cool.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Make it feel like really like their own.
Speaker 1:And the wraps are like a thousand bucks or something. Like like they they they will be like sort of nickel and diming you, but it's truly just a nickel and just a dime to add a different feature. And so you can probably go crazy in the configurator and wind up with a whole bunch of add ons. But the fact that you can pick exactly what you want, much much more fun buying experience. You can create something really interesting.
Speaker 1:You can also add on incrementally. I believe you can buy the truck and then upgrade to the SUV seating arrangement later, And you don't necessarily need to do that on day one, so you can sort of walk, crawl, run. What is the range on this truck?
Speaker 2:200 ish?
Speaker 1:Wow. Brandon Gorell in shambles. He was spreading fake
Speaker 2:So Brandon came in morning. He was
Speaker 1:It's 45 miles of range. And I was like, it can't possibly be 45 miles.
Speaker 2:He said it's only 200 if you're pushing it for after 90 miles.
Speaker 1:Oh, yeah. Yeah. No. He said 90. And I said no.
Speaker 1:It's at 200. I don't know if it was ever 90 but 200 is plenty for a daily commute in a normal city. Also just for going around quick errands. It's not going to cost you anything. You're going to charge it.
Speaker 1:Seems fine. I don't think that demand for the 300 plus range a lot of people who are in that category, this won't be their only vehicle. They'll have a gas engine that basically has unlimited range. Right? Yeah.
Speaker 1:But this can be
Speaker 2:And you're I mean, you're basically gonna hold off on any real judgment until we get get its time on the green hell.
Speaker 1:Yes. That's very key.
Speaker 2:See there. My only thing with the slate is like, I actually think the the the actual customization software on the website is like very janky. Mhmm. And I find it very hard to to seamlessly actually design different styles.
Speaker 1:Interesting. Ford Ford is doing
Speaker 2:So it feels like they did like the hard
Speaker 1:their what? Ford is doing a $30,000 electric pickup truck next year. It'll have four doors, probably longer range, faster charging, and it'll definitely have more like power windows default, speaker standard, like a bunch of just the basics that they that you get from like the Ford platform. So there's a question about that. The hybrid Maverick also starts at $3.30 k.
Speaker 1:So interesting challenge. I think it's cool. I I think the best thing about it is that it's just a fresh design. It looks very cool. I think it's a unique choice and people can have a lot of fun with it and and just sort of like experiment with a new thing.
Speaker 1:But it does seem like a brutally brutally competitive space and and it's it's a little bit I don't know. There's something about this where when I see a new Chinese EV, I see them breaking constraints in, like, crazy, crazy ways where you're getting, like, super car performance for $50,000 or some ultra luxury, like, it looks like a Rolls Royce Cullinan, but it's 70 k. And there's some real crazy innovations going on inside. This is a different sort of simple more much more simpler utilitarian take. I think it looks cool though.
Speaker 1:And I like that there's so much optionality there. It feels like an interesting interesting plan. I really hope it's successful.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I'm I'm interested right now, I can see it as kind of like a leisure, like weekender car, at least in my own life. I'm interested if they can crack the, like, first car market. Right? They are competing with the Tesla Model three, which is like, you know, 12 ish k over what the Slate is set to start at.
Speaker 2:Tesla Model three, you're getting, you know, self driving, more range, arguably more function for a lot of people's, like, daily use. A lot of people, you know, like the idea of having a truck but only use the truck bed, you know, twice a year or something like So like you said, competitive, but I'm excited for it.
Speaker 1:Going to Micro Center now feels like going to a jewelry store, says says Taycan because everything's so expensive. Wow. $4,000 for a cutting edge GeForce gaming graphics card. That is a lot of money. It used to be over, like, going up in 600, $800 for a graphics card.
Speaker 1:Was like, oh, you're you're paying big money. Now it's real big money.
Speaker 2:I thought it was funny that the AC in Europe debate kicked off right when we when we landed. Were experiencing And right as we landed, we were we were asking, like talking with chat, okay, so like is it is it like, why isn't it why isn't it more popular at this And there were not a lot of great great reasons. I was thinking huge opportunity to start the air conditioning company of Europe.
Speaker 1:That'd be good.
Speaker 2:I'm normally against that naming structure, but You're gonna have kinda like it here.
Speaker 1:Gonna have to lobby Macron or something because isn't there a law that says you can't air condition a building to less than like 79 degrees?
Speaker 2:I think that's like a government building.
Speaker 1:Oh, okay.
Speaker 2:Public spaces. So if you're in a government imagine does imagine
Speaker 1:feel odd that there's not Imagine you're at
Speaker 2:your job, you know, working on, like, the, you know, blocking AI in Europe, and you're just sitting there at your computer and it's 79 degrees.
Speaker 1:Is there no environmentally friendly refrigerant out there? Because you have to imagine that you could have cheap solar panels powering AC in a building and have a pretty good business. Sort of like solar city for AC or something all across France. It's just odd that the market hasn't like solved that in some way since I would imagine the demand would be very high. But I don't know.
Speaker 1:Maybe if you just grow up without AC, you never you never long for it. Who knows? Anyway, Big Kwan Yu. Air conditioning was the most important invention for us, perhaps one of the signal inventions of history. It changed the nature of civilization by making development possible in the tropics.
Speaker 1:Without air conditioning, you can only work in the cool early morning hours or at dusk. The first thing I did upon upon becoming prime minister was to install air conditioners in buildings where civil service worked. This was key to public efficiency. People start to struggle indoors once indoor temperatures exceed 73 degrees. Yeah.
Speaker 1:72 is perfect. Sleep efficiency goes down. Sleep duration goes down. Work productivity goes down. School learning goes down.
Speaker 1:Wow. Really, really crazy. Patrick Collison is is chiming in. Also, Patrick Collison funded a cure for the flu. This is going to be as big as cancer thing.
Speaker 2:The tech industry really needs to do this right now.
Speaker 1:Yes. Yes. Yes. You need a win that is like broadly understood.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I think it's Stripe, OpenAI, Anthropic,
Speaker 1:OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe, and Bill Gates are putting $500,000,000 into funding a new organization called Intercept. Intercept's goal is to prevent the common cold and the flu and eventually eliminate all respiratory viruses completely. Incredibly cool project. Incredibly yeah. Just like an incredibly cool like tangible thing.
Speaker 1:I saw a stat that I saw this chart of how many it was like, what percentage of weeks are parents sick with something viral generally as a function of how many kids they have? And it's like a fast takeoff curve. So it's like one kid and you're sick. Like twenty five percent of the year, you have like some virus in your system, a cold, a flu, something. And then as you get to like two, three, four kids, it ramps to like fifty percent of the year you are sick.
Speaker 1:And and people will feel that if they're like, yes, I'm getting less sick. It's working.
Speaker 2:Yeah. When when the podcast, you know, optimizers that struggle to have, you know, two drinks and continue podcasting, like, they are so woefully unprepared for having children. Fortunately, most podcasters, you know, don't have they don't tend to go down that path of of of having of having families. But It's a menace. If they did, we could potentially see podcast the reserve decline meaningfully because if you're sick half of the year, I remember for some reason it was like it felt the worst when we first started the show.
Speaker 2:And between us we had I guess we had five kids at the One of
Speaker 1:blow my nose. Drew. And then, okay, back to
Speaker 2:the Yeah. So with five kids, it's like, okay, one of the kids is always sick perpetually. Yeah. And then that means one of us is either like sick or starting to get sick. And then I'd just be we'd be looking across the table at each other being like, I've got maybe thirty six hours until I'm feeling the exact same thing.
Speaker 1:There's a hack from Tyler. He says he has three kids, just sauna every day, twenty four minutes at 205 degrees. That's some serious sauna. Wow. Our sauna does not go that high right now.
Speaker 1:And I don't know if I'm putting twenty five minutes.
Speaker 2:I That's good. I haven't hacked my sauna to be able to go that high.
Speaker 1:Yeah. You got to over You block
Speaker 2:you do. Something.
Speaker 1:I don't know. Yeah. Anyway. I bet this James Bond inspired spec mansion has a sauna in it. It's listing for $85,000,000 spanning roughly 23,000 feet.
Speaker 1:Villa Skyfall features a glass walled auto gallery, a wellness center, and a Himalayan salt room, 95 foot long pool. Give me a review. Is this loud opulence? Is this you? Would you ever live here?
Speaker 1:Would you raise a family here? Or is it too over the top? It does look like Minecraft a little bit. Real estate developer Aldo Stark is so much of a James Bond fanatic that o o seven influences everything from the way he dresses, the cars he drives. I don't think there's a week in my life I don't play a James Bond movie.
Speaker 1:Real cinephile. I like that.
Speaker 2:There we go.
Speaker 1:So it was fitting that Stark's latest spec project in Delray Beach was inspired by Skyfall. Both the 2012 movie and the fictional spy character's childhood home in Scotland. I seem to remember in Skyfall, the home in Scotland is not like this at all. It's abandoned. It's a isn't it abandoned?
Speaker 1:It's like really dark. It's like a cottage. Right? Okay. I don't get that at all.
Speaker 1:Anyway.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I mean, Nine option for a supervillain that wants to move to Florida.
Speaker 1:It does feel like a supervillain. Pull up an image of the yeah. Any of this feels very very supervillain. If
Speaker 2:you were running like a gambling like children's mind poisoning company, This could be
Speaker 1:The walls and the ceilings are covered with wood, backlit onyx, and rare stone or glass. The house also has a salon inspired by Parisian Cartier boutique and a glass walled auto gallery and a rainforest inspired wellness center. The wellness center sounds cool. But it's a lot it's got a lot going, a lot of reflections. It feels very bright.
Speaker 1:I feel like I'd need, like, sunglasses in here. Outside, there's a 95 foot long pool, waterfalls, fire features, plus putting green, pickleball, soccer field, cabanas, and botanical gardens. There's something to see everywhere. It's quite a sensory overload. He says this.
Speaker 1:I like it. Okay. I agree with him. At least he's calling. He's play he's not trying to he's not trying to lie to everyone.
Speaker 1:Design homes, he runs it with his wife, bought a two be the
Speaker 2:kind of space that is nicer to be in. Like it it will feel better in person than in the pictures. Like sometimes it's inverted where the pictures look amazing and then you Sure. Feel Yeah. The lighting is like perfect but with these
Speaker 1:It just doesn't feel very
Speaker 2:these images, it just
Speaker 1:feels like
Speaker 2:It feels like a LVMH like Yeah.
Speaker 1:It feels like this is a house if you're like throwing parties professionally, your entire world organizes around like these large dinner parties and celebrations and you have the New Year's Eve party.
Speaker 2:I do love this I do love this sunken
Speaker 1:The sunken pool. Conversation. There's lot
Speaker 2:of fireplace.
Speaker 1:That's cool. You scroll down to the front, this looks particularly Minecraft y with this waterfall coming out here. Yeah. Look at that photo, Jordy. That is Minecraft Central.
Speaker 1:It's very in the There
Speaker 2:we go. Doesn't that look like Honestly, I would just I would it needs like it needs way more like a much bigger waterfall. Yeah. Like I wanna I wanna see the equivalent of like 20 fire hoses just like shooting water out.
Speaker 1:Wait. Huge news. Apple Vision Pro and Smart Glasses chief is leaving for OpenAI's hardware division.
Speaker 2:Is my
Speaker 1:Christmas. This is amazing.
Speaker 2:This is honestly
Speaker 1:I'm like, no.
Speaker 2:Felt like we were in a simulation until now.
Speaker 1:Vision autism autism capital say vision bros right now. We can't keep getting away with this. It's so good. That is very exciting. Scoop from Mark Gurman.
Speaker 1:What a what a lovely scoop. Anyway
Speaker 2:It's literally Christmas for John.
Speaker 1:Christmas for John. Malibu Mansion seen in the OC in Austin Powers asks $90,000,000. It's on the cliff. You gotta tell me this is in Point Doom, nine bedrooms, 20 vehicle garage, and a 176 feet of bluff frontage. So explain to me the the the bluff dynamic because this feels like not you're not just gonna walk out on the beach.
Speaker 1:So how do you actually go enjoy the ocean other than just looking at it obviously?
Speaker 2:They're like very very very close to this is a path that just takes you down to the beach. Okay. All I will say about this property is every time I'm surfing Yeah. Below this I look up and think, damn, that house is It's thick. Not not long for this world.
Speaker 1:Oh, really?
Speaker 2:Because it's really like you can just see that like
Speaker 1:Oh, you think it's gonna fall off the cliff or something? Not
Speaker 2:really. I mean, clearly there's plenty of backyard. Yeah. And it but but but The erosion does seem The erosion is Over Years. Yeah.
Speaker 2:It's so that you're going to just have to like probably change the backyard. But then once somebody starts changing it, then like Kosel would get involved and they would probably make you change it pretty drastically.
Speaker 1:But every day you wake up and you're like, I'm denying I'm defying mother nature. I'm challenging God. And that is empowering in a certain way.
Speaker 2:For some people.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Wake up thinking like I am Icarus and I will be flying close to the sun today. And that's got to be inspiring. That's a certain vibe. You wake up in the James Bond house, you think you're James Bond.
Speaker 1:You wake up in this house and you think I'm tempting fate. And that's inspiring.
Speaker 2:You saw the 85 year old man was arrested after allegedly street racing at over a 100 miles per hour in a sports car while smoking a cigarette cigaretteo. When confronted, he reportedly told police he was just having having a little ride in my favorite car.
Speaker 1:Okay. What's the charge, officer? Yeah. Having a little ride in my favorite car? That's very good.
Speaker 2:Oh, man. I hope this story is true. Did you Seems a little too good to be true.
Speaker 1:After winning millions on DraftKings, we mentioned it earlier, he built a mansion with a bowling alley. Texas home of Michael Cohen who won the Millionaire Maker Fantasy Sports Tournament multiple times has hidden rooms in a creepy library according to him. He recalls
Speaker 2:What makes a library creepy?
Speaker 1:Let's find out. The first time Michael Cohen won $1,000,000 on sports betting site DraftKings in 2015. He's the meme. He's like, you know, 99% of sports bettors quit right before they hit a big. He's the one who dug until he hit the diamonds.
Speaker 1:Skill issue. Tell send this to Sager and Jetty.
Speaker 2:It's not all No. Bad. Luck issue.
Speaker 1:Luck issue. That's true. He hired okay. So he wins a million dollars in 2035. He's having a wedding.
Speaker 1:He wants some musical talent. Who does he hire to come play his wedding, Jordy? Lil Flip. Rapper Lil Flip. Never heard of him?
Speaker 1:No. Big in big in the Texas scene, believe. Mhmm. And then he wins another million dollars in 2017. Two years later, he buys a Tesla Model s.
Speaker 1:That's a pretty like reasonable thing if you win a million bucks. Buying a Model s feels like sort of responsible. I don't know. It doesn't seem crazy. But then third win in 2019, stock trader bought 14 acres on a private street in the suburbs of Houston and built a 14,700 square foot home.
Speaker 1:What are laughing at?
Speaker 2:Techno chief says send this to Sager. Is
Speaker 1:that Inspiring. Inspiring. Sager I don't know.
Speaker 2:Sager is gonna pretend that this never got public. Yeah. He's gonna pretend this this is not real inspiring
Speaker 1:story of gambling gone right. The it's kind of a go big or go home kind of attitude said Michael forty three. Let's let's flip to m eight and keep reading this. There's some there's some funny clips in here. He says he says he has won $1,000,000 or more in two subsequent DraftKings contest.
Speaker 1:He just keeps winning. It's crazy. If you are going to have your own street, might as well have a big ass theater and you might as well have a bowling alley. This is his quote to the journal. Before moving in
Speaker 2:Is this this some like sneaky content marketing from DraftKings? It seems like Do have this guy do they have this guy win like two of these contests that are know, what what are the odds of winning like two of these random little contests and then going on this crazy press
Speaker 1:tour He won in for 2015, 2017, 2019, 2022, and 2024. He's estimated he's won over 6,000,000 on DraftKings over the years. His approach to sports betting is analytical, not emotional. You know
Speaker 2:I I think we actually should send this to Sagar and he should do an investigative deep dive Maybe. It seems like a little too heartwarming to be gambling that long and just winning on seemingly like random like sweepstakes style things. Yeah. Like it's not like he's like if he was playing games of skill, they he would they would have banned him.
Speaker 1:It is a game of skill. It's wait, no. It's fantasy sports. That's luck. Right?
Speaker 1:Where is that skill?
Speaker 2:Is that skill? Hey.
Speaker 1:Is it regulated as a skill game? I think it is. I think fantasy sports is regulated as skill. It's not pure luck. It's like
Speaker 2:Do you think that he's so good but he loves attention and so DraftKings is like, keep letting him win. Maybe. So that he goes on this press tour.
Speaker 1:Maybe. Maybe.
Speaker 2:Heartwarming story, local man.
Speaker 1:It's potentially true.
Speaker 2:Achieves financial freedom through fantasy sports.
Speaker 1:Off the kitchen and living room is an entertainment wing which their designer dubbed the Dave and Buster's wing. It has a massive kitchen, a theater with a room for a 180 inch projector screen and a two lane bowling alley. There's a room with outlets for arcade or vending machines. The house has an elevator shaft should someone want to add one. Interesting.
Speaker 1:You put in the shaft before you put in the elevator. Why not just do the elevator? Apparently home elevators are incredibly dangerous. It's a huge source of of risk to your health. Be careful.
Speaker 2:Not for this guy. He does not have
Speaker 1:He has he has he has good luck I guess. I'll just sometimes make a joke and then somehow it becomes reality. The Dave and Buster's wing, there's a bar with a pass through window that opens to the outdoor pool area. If you're gonna have a party, you're gonna have a party. Right?
Speaker 1:He said, might as well do it right. The house has set set several hidden rooms including a safe room. In the dining room, a hidden door and hallway lead to a room Cohen calls a creepy library. There's actually nothing creepy about it, said the listing agent. The listing agent is like, hey, can you cool it with the weird lingo?
Speaker 1:He has a very expensive tree house. You could be drinking cognac out of Waterford crystal, smoking cigars on a Chesterfield couch. Anyway, I don't know. He said, he whoever buys the property will be someone local, potentially an athlete or celebrity. If someone wanted an even larger home, they could easily add another 3,000 square feet.
Speaker 2:Is he selling the home to put it all on black? Maybe. Maybe. Mister Beast is hiring a senior ML AI engineer
Speaker 1:No way.
Speaker 2:San Francisco. Peter Wildford says, I locked a 100 AI researchers in a data center until they solved alignment. Absolute banger.
Speaker 1:That would be a good
Speaker 2:That would be a that would potentially be his biggest video ever.
Speaker 1:People talk about the need for new media and tech. That's maybe that's the final boss when MrBeast gets into it. What else is
Speaker 2:going on? Less a much more sad story, Ohm. Malik. From
Speaker 1:Giga, Ohm. This was like right around TechCrunch, The Verge. When I got to Silicon Valley, Giga Ohm was like a source of incredible takes and analysis around around technology and startups, beloved in the venture community, and he passed away very sadly.
Speaker 2:Hodinke wrote in loving memory of Ohm Oh, that's good. Colleague, friend, writer, venture capitalist Yeah. And ever the believer. Benjamin Climber
Speaker 1:Oh, yeah.
Speaker 2:Wrote wrote a really nice
Speaker 1:That's cool.
Speaker 2:Piece. I never had the pleasure of meeting Ohm, but he clearly touched a lot of lives.
Speaker 1:Okay. Let's move over to They're Figma hosting config twenty twenty six. We couldn't be there because we were traveling but there's this crazy launch Figma Motion Design. It took this individual four and a half seconds to make this And really, really cool for if you've done motion design you know how long it takes to hang out in After Effects. Even just having a starting point, something to tweak, something to build off of.
Speaker 1:Who knows if you're going be able to completely one shot it or you want to do more and inject your own taste to stand out. But I thought this was a very very cool launch and something I would love to put to work in adding overlays to our YouTube shorts, something like that. Could be very, very cool. There's been a few of these products that are very, very interesting.
Speaker 2:Let's pull up this video of Elon telling Lex about being the world's first trillionaire.
Speaker 1:I know what you're gonna post and this is so silly. This is the impression? This is the impression?
Speaker 2:Tyler's not in the studio today so the app is falling apart and won't load. Ridiculous. Should we should we skip it?
Speaker 1:Yeah. We can skip it. We can move on to this watch. It's about that time. It says cheapy 13.
Speaker 1:I This watch would don't you think this watch would actually be cool if it if it just told the hour hand and the glass and the tab moved around in a circle? Like that would be possible.
Speaker 2:Right? Anything's possible, John.
Speaker 1:I think that's cool. And then at at noon, it's beer o'clock and you can pop it open.
Speaker 2:I was just thinking it was like it was only good to make the sound once. You just kept it on Oh,
Speaker 1:just chimes.
Speaker 2:In case you needed to any any sort of strategic moment. But I think this is a good place to to end the show.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Sounds good.
Speaker 2:Has Thank been
Speaker 1:for tuning in.
Speaker 2:An honor and a privilege.
Speaker 1:Yeah. It's been great.
Speaker 2:And I can't wait for Monday. Five shows at least more?
Speaker 1:Four. We have a day off tomorrow or next week?
Speaker 2:Oh, fourth of July maybe? Oh,
Speaker 1:yeah. Fourth of July will be off Friday. Alright. We have a light show on Thursday, so we'll be hanging out. Anyway, leave us five stars on Apple Podcast and Spotify.
Speaker 1:Sign up for a newsletter at tbpn.com and we will see you Have
Speaker 2:a wonderful Goodbye. We love you.