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NET Society is unraveling the latest in digital art, crypto, AI, and tech. Join us for fresh insights and bold perspectives as we tap into wild, thought-provoking conversations. By: Derek Edwards (glitch marfa / collab+currency), Chris Furlong (starholder, LAO + Flamingo DAO), and Aaaron Wright & Priyanka Desai (Tribute Labs)
00;00;16;02 - 00;00;40;10
Aaron
Hey, everyone. You know what I've been thinking a lot about this week? I think by the end of this year, we're almost going to be in a weird way, like post suffer. Like, I've been just thinking about just the speed of software development. I've been tracking it and like, just for myself. And like this time last year, like, I was able to push like between 5 and 10,000 lines of code a week, and now it's like about 100,000.
00;00;40;11 - 00;01;01;28
Aaron
And, you know, I'm listening to all these like, talks from people kind of deep in the trenches at all. The big models, and they all seem to say the same thing, which is this is not slowing down. And this isn't like Sam Altman. I have found like a whole bunch of weird podcasts that have, like, lean engineers or like senior engineers at these places, like talking about what they're building and they're all saying the same thing.
00;01;02;01 - 00;01;08;26
Aaron
So I think we could actually get to a point where you're pushing like a million lines of code per software engineer by the end of this year.
00;01;08;29 - 00;01;13;19
Chris
Let's be clear, because this year only has, I don't know, like 13 days left in it.
00;01;13;21 - 00;01;18;08
Aaron
And the end of 2026. Right. Next year. Yeah.
00;01;18;11 - 00;01;24;22
Chris
Can we, like, round up the holidays before you, acceleration test us into a future year?
00;01;24;24 - 00;01;25;26
Pri
Post software.
00;01;25;29 - 00;01;29;29
Aaron
There's no time to waste, Chris. We got to accelerate right now. Let's go.
00;01;30;02 - 00;02;02;07
Chris
Okay, well, we can accelerate right now. You might be able to generate a million lines of code. It doesn't mean it's going to be worthwhile. I'm going to take the other position here because it's not the code development that's the bottleneck anymore. It's the products themselves and it's the reasoning in the models. And so you sure like, do you want to open a fire hose and, you know, compete to see you can generate a million lines of code.
00;02;02;09 - 00;02;37;29
Chris
I'm sure you can get there. And I'm sure you can hit that. Benchmark is someone who, like, builds complex systems. I can tell you that there's a disconnect right now between, the ability to coding models and the reasoning capabilities sitting under them. Like, the code has gotten better. It can be produced faster. It's less buggy. The casing and the business logic and the ability to actually adhere to requirements is, it's not keeping up right now.
00;02;38;02 - 00;03;10;12
Chris
And I'm feeling this pain very distinctly ever since, opus 4 or 5 and Codex five two came out where, like, yes, my life has gotten easier, but also like it took me a couple weeks to realize, like, I was just getting angrier than usual and my prompting and a little more frustrated. And I realized, like my prompting had gotten shallower because I was making assumptions that the the improvements were across the board and not just, on the code generation side.
00;03;10;17 - 00;03;39;29
Chris
And in fact, at least in my experience, that's not the case. You still need to be very explicit in your prompting. You need to provide it with enough enough depth, like you can't like one of my, I guess litmus test for these things is can can coding agents understand what parity means equivalency to to fork this versus create something new and wholesale.
00;03;40;00 - 00;04;01;10
Chris
Recognize that you already created logic, but you're just refactoring the code or you're trying a different technique in your generation side. It's more efficient, but the actual business logic and casing still remains intact. And I mean, I'm pulling my hair out over this stuff.
00;04;01;13 - 00;04;22;27
Aaron
I hear that, Chris. I think I'm, I'm seeing just because it has gotten, like, more energetic and a little bit better at reasoning, I'd say that's probably by like a factor of like four. And then the speed and quality and lack of error is probably increased by like a factor of ten. And so if that continues to hold into next year, I think you're going to get a little bit of both.
00;04;22;27 - 00;04;44;15
Aaron
I think your critiques right now are fair, but I just think that that is going to be the game. And the outputs of that game are just super fascinating. So like, maybe I'm wrong, right? Maybe it's only like half a million lines of code, or maybe it's 250,000 lines of code, but like, I think a, like people are understanding how to use these systems better, like in a more broad based way.
00;04;44;15 - 00;05;09;18
Aaron
And two, like we are going to get just like some lift of quality code. And I think it's going to be not like A1X lift. I think it's going to be more like, you know, a like a multiple. So and I think that that just really begins to change the way software development is done. Maybe it is more like you're spending more time, almost like putting together a really detailed planning document beforehand, or maybe it's something different, but it just, I don't know it.
00;05;09;20 - 00;05;29;27
Aaron
We're almost getting to like a post software, type situation. And even if I'm like a little bit off on it, like by 2027, which is actually not that far away, I think that that's going to be a big thematic, and I think it just changes the way, you know, people work in the software industry, how they invest, which is obviously relevant here.
00;05;30;00 - 00;05;51;12
Aaron
You know, how they build. It's like kind of a seismic shift. And it's also like, I think if you hit those levels, you hit a point where which we've never been in where like the supply of software outpaces the demand for it, which I think is super fascinating. Like we've always been like in a software constrained world. And I think we're going to invert that, to be in a like a software abundant world.
00;05;51;18 - 00;06;27;05
Chris
And I'll get one more thing off my chest before we switch to abundance mindset here, because I'm all for abundance and we will get there are and but the other issue is in the product management on the AI side. Like it's it's showing it's warts and a curse is a great example. I frickin hate updating cursor. I hate when cursor crashes on me and then decides it's going to update itself like cursor desperately needs product management UI.
00;06;27;07 - 00;06;56;29
Chris
They just like throw the messiest shit into the messiest interface and then they move things around all the time, every couple of days, and it's all to push things that are absolutely useless to me. I also see this, at Anthropic, where there models like the performance of their models changes all the time, and it's usually when they first introduce a model, it is insanely good.
00;06;56;29 - 00;07;13;20
Chris
And then they nerf it like they change the harness on it. They do something and you can tell when they've pulled back the ability of one of their models, usually takes like a day or two to like catch up to the fact that, well, you're like scratching your head. Why the hell is overseeing such pain in the ass today?
00;07;13;20 - 00;07;44;19
Chris
And you're like, oh, well, obviously anthropic did something to it. And so and then the final thing and then we can, we can get positive and, and all that fun stuff is like, I need all the proactivity and helpfulness pulled out of these models. Like, I need a pro edition of these models that are here. It's like there there's sort of this power law distribution where if you really know what you're doing as like a product designer, assistant designer, like you do not need help.
00;07;44;19 - 00;08;19;29
Chris
Full requirements introduced because they mess your shit up and they screw it up badly and then you're going under the hood trying to figure out why a thing isn't behaving the way it is. And then, you know, the models like, oh, well, it's this thing and you're like, oh, really? You decided to limit your to do a full scan of something and limited to only a thousand instead of actually, you know, filtering on the user ID and this other like, you know, very specific criteria and like, why, why do you keep like, you know, disrespecting requirements like this?
00;08;19;29 - 00;08;30;05
Chris
Like you're not helpful, you're killing me. And so anyway, like that, that's the end of my, my airing of grievances here is it's it is management.
00;08;30;07 - 00;08;34;16
Aaron
It is Festivus for the rest of us Chris. So I'm glad you aired your grievances.
00;08;34;16 - 00;08;42;13
Chris
It's all out of my system now. I'm, I'm ready. I'm ready to, like, wax philosophical and let other people talk.
00;08;42;15 - 00;08;44;11
Derek
I want to hear what Pri was going to say on this.
00;08;44;11 - 00;08;44;15
Aaron
Yeah.
00;08;44;15 - 00;09;13;02
Pri
Me too. I was literally not going to say anything compelling, but I was just noticing in general, I feel like the whole, like, abundance narrative has actually kicked off quite a bit. So like, I feel like the AI crew has started co-opting that word from I feel like it's like the left, but also just in general. I think people want more of everything faster, and so it's just interesting to me that like, now the tech world has gone on to that word.
00;09;13;02 - 00;09;41;03
Pri
Like I've been saying, Elon put, you know, abundance out there more. And it's just like an interesting word that I feel like we're going to see more people reference over the next year or two. And my logic around that is like, it's a way to make AI less scary to people and more like, hey, abundance, kind of in a way, to you it it means like a benefit that you as an individual could also reap as well as a machine.
00;09;41;03 - 00;09;53;15
Pri
So like it's us together, creating a more abundant world. And I feel like the PR machine is grafting on to that because it's like less scary than AI is going to take your job, just like a small thing there.
00;09;53;15 - 00;10;07;07
Aaron
But oh yeah, I think that's definitely true. I mean, we also just got the first US government airdrop of 2025, or at least the folks in the military did. So I think crypto's always kind of been ahead of the curve on all these like, kids.
00;10;07;10 - 00;10;17;18
Pri
Like kids, like like kids are getting airdrops now, schoolchildren to basically compound well, for 18 years. That's kind of cool.
00;10;17;20 - 00;10;19;02
Aaron
AirDrop economy.
00;10;19;04 - 00;10;19;24
Pri
Yeah.
00;10;19;27 - 00;10;40;04
Derek
It's pretty cool. I, I think these are all really great insights. I really like where Aaron is going. Very clearly pilled conversation here from Aaron. Like the post software piece for me at least stands out. I yeah, I, I don't know if I have like fully formed thoughts on the abundance stuff yet. I definitely see that conversation ramping up.
00;10;40;04 - 00;11;06;14
Derek
But it feels more like the contours of like, messaging rather than like, yeah, something like media I can grab hold to, like, I, I'm not I'm not quite sure what what a future of kind of like this, this world of abundance actually, like, plays out and looks like in any tangible way. Yeah. But I think the messaging that around it is, is definitely it's clearly becoming a thing.
00;11;06;14 - 00;11;13;26
Derek
And people are, are anchoring to it a bit more. Especially as the technology develops and seeps into the economy.
00;11;13;29 - 00;11;46;18
Chris
Yeah. I mean, no one gives anything away unless it's demanded of them. It would be lovely if you know, Silicon Valley wants to get in front of this because they're super fearful that, maybe a change in administration is going to start nerfing their toy, their toys and their ability to develop and deploy advanced AI. You know, this this goes back to the whole issue of, you know, people in places where data centers are moved and are seeing the utility bills triple, quadruple, right.
00;11;46;18 - 00;12;11;02
Chris
And because the demand is going up so high and so, you know, are you going to be paying their utility bills? Are you not going to be able to draw from the grid like something's something's going to have to? Given all this, at least the conversation is starting up right now. So you know, hopefully like, I don't want to see our AI superpowers taken away and, you know, an overreaction.
00;12;11;02 - 00;12;29;15
Chris
But I can also easily see it, especially, you know, having just gone through this whole crypto thing, you know, that we can throw very reactionary policies out there around technology. And, you know, well, it'd be better not to live in a world of like, complete overreactions that don't make practical sense.
00;12;29;17 - 00;12;51;13
Aaron
Yeah, it's a good point, Chris. I mean, I think there there are I mean, energy debt definitely feels like it's one of the constraints here, but I don't know, I, I'm like optimistic there that that there's like enough inertia and there's enough of like you know, like upside that that will get solved like reasonably quickly. But that, that definitely is one of the bottlenecks.
00;12;51;15 - 00;13;13;23
Aaron
But I do think, like thinking about like software from an abundance. My mindset is just, I think an interesting frame to kind of think about the next couple of years because it feels like that's going to be the case. Putting aside quibbling on the numbers, like that's the directional trend, it's just a lot of assumptions that I think we've been living through since probably like what, 1996 are just going to get re imagined.
00;13;13;26 - 00;13;35;02
Aaron
And that's like pretty exciting. You know, I think the next two years are going to be probably the most interesting time in tech since probably, you know, 2003 to 2005, if not like the most interesting time in our lifetimes. I just don't think these windows like, open up often, and it's probably a once in like a generational, year that we're about to enter into.
00;13;35;02 - 00;13;54;22
Aaron
And I think that for the last couple years in, I have really been like an appetizer and like, this is like the beginning of, like the main course. And I think that this is when we're going to really, you know, start to see some wild and interesting things and it's going to move much faster than those other cycles, just in terms of speed of development, which is pretty cool.
00;13;54;25 - 00;14;09;13
Pri
But I am a little worried about the mutiny that will start, though, in response to that, because I think there will be a mutiny, even though I feel like you're more optimistic, which I actually do appreciate. But, you know, whether or not it does create like an abundance economy for people, and people actually have more to do.
00;14;09;13 - 00;14;34;00
Pri
And there's actually more work because of this abundance. And it doesn't affect job loss. Like if that's kind of the positive view, which is very possible. I think no matter what the narrative is going to be so negative that like, it's going to get blamed for a lot. It already has been and we haven't even like seen the I like a IT in many professions outside of maybe engineering and people already using that as like a scapegoat for job loss.
00;14;34;05 - 00;14;48;00
Pri
It just feels like no matter what, I kind of feel like the AI stuff may not win. And capturing the hearts and minds, even if it does, I'm a little worried about what will happen there, but I don't want to get too far down that rabbit hole.
00;14;48;02 - 00;14;52;12
Chris
So we're going to bring up the fact that the lawyers aren't using the AI lawyering software or not.
00;14;52;15 - 00;14;53;25
Pri
Yeah. We should.
00;14;53;27 - 00;15;14;14
Aaron
I actually think it's a pretty interesting like window into it just because, you know, outside of software, like some of the other great like next gen tooling has actually been around legal work. And there's a great company, Harvey, they've purportedly developed like some really nice tools that beat or surpass, like on average, most legal work and obviously do it super quick.
00;15;14;17 - 00;15;40;14
Aaron
But, you know, they just raise like a monster. And I think it was like at an 8 million, $8 billion like Post-money valuation, which is a ton. But somebody was noting that their adoption inside of law firms is like pretty low. And I think that it kind of highlights this tension that I think we're going to see where like the incumbent white collar worker is going to not be super inclined to use this stuff as a, as a, like a means of protecting their jobs.
00;15;40;16 - 00;15;59;14
Aaron
And I think that that could be like a dynamic that we see for the next couple of years. And then at the same time, I think you're going to see like a new class of startup that, like, leans into it or like a new class of law firm or, you know, like that industry that just it's like 100% like cracked on this stuff and they're just going to run laps around these like, older organizations.
00;15;59;14 - 00;16;02;08
Aaron
But I feel like that dynamic is like pretty fascinating.
00;16;02;10 - 00;16;04;27
Pri
2026 prediction right there.
00;16;04;29 - 00;16;11;22
Aaron
What what's the prediction for AI everywhere? Yeah, I think that's reasonable thing.
00;16;11;24 - 00;16;36;02
Derek
Yeah. All I all say is like I saw the Harvey stuff, I find it really difficult to believe that people are not using these tools. Like constantly. I just I come from a family of attorneys. I went to law school and, you know, don't practice for an attorney. I, I feel like for my productivity, I'm constantly tapped in to LMS.
00;16;36;04 - 00;16;54;14
Derek
You know, I have a brother and a father who are currently practicing, and they are building that stuff into their workflows day to day. One is on on the transactional side. One's on the litigation side. I just I listen, I think we can debate whether or not like Harvey is overvalued at like whatever it's raising at $10 billion.
00;16;54;16 - 00;17;12;23
Derek
But like to say that the direction of the business is incorrect because lawyers aren't going to want to use these tools. I feel like is not an accurate statement. I don't I don't think that's how this stuff unfolds. And I would virtually agree with Aaron here that the folks who maybe don't incorporate these tools into their workflow are going to be left Flatfooted.
00;17;13;00 - 00;17;30;16
Aaron
Yeah, I think it's kind of like you now have all this, like expertise at your fingertips and just creates like these really tight feedback loops on your work. Right? So if you were, you know, a lawyer and you wanted to write like a really complicated brief or deal with a complicated transaction, maybe you'd have to work with, you know, 5 to 10 colleagues to do that.
00;17;30;16 - 00;17;55;22
Aaron
And now you as an individual can just, you know, bang that out super quickly and at a high quality, which is which is kind of the magic of the whole thing. And I just think that there's like two natural consequences of that. One is that the quality of work will increase across the board. I think there's like this like false assumption that all this white collar work is done well when it's not right, like there's always a distribution.
00;17;55;24 - 00;18;15;02
Aaron
And so everything just kind of moves up into that higher end distribution, like the higher quality work. So everything levels up and then that top end just gets even better. Right? And it just sets like a new standard. I think that's kind of like what happened with computers, right? Like there was accountants. Excel came out that really changed the way that they, you know, maintained books and records.
00;18;15;02 - 00;18;32;19
Aaron
But it's not like accounting work went down. The demands of accountants went up. Right? Like there's more transparency now. Like there's more things that are accounted for. And I think it's going to be like the same thing and all these professional categories and same thing with software too, right? Like I just think the quality of software is just going to increase like dramatically.
00;18;32;21 - 00;18;47;19
Aaron
Like you're not going to be able to like put together like some basic Crud app, you know, raise a mess around related to it and then sell that into enterprises like it's going to have to be more customized. The quality of the product is going to have to be pretty friggin high, you know, to get people to use it.
00;18;47;19 - 00;18;55;26
Aaron
You're going to have to differentiate on brand and, you know, make it a really great experience. It's going to feel a little bit more like other consumer products than the other way around.
00;18;55;28 - 00;19;18;25
Derek
Yeah, that that feels right to me. I'm. Yeah. I guess, you know, maybe something that like the age old question is like, because I feel like we always, I think the at least news cycle spin on this idea, which is just like, I feel like we're constantly going from category of GDP to category GDP and like there's these debates around like whether or not AI is actually going to impact that category.
00;19;18;25 - 00;19;39;13
Derek
And like the the topic for the week is lawyers. Again. You know, last week it was, you know, something that education week before that it was something else. But yeah I guess like I don't I don't know. And like the more the more time that passes and like the more I find myself leaning on these tools for literally everything.
00;19;39;15 - 00;20;07;08
Derek
I'm just like finding it really hard to believe that, like, again, that like AI and LMS and robotics and robotics powered by our LMS and also more advanced forms of model deployment and inference, that and training that don't even exist yet like this stuff just doesn't like sweep up everything. And these articles about whether or not people are going to want to pay to use this stuff, like it's just a it's just kind of like incredibly dated.
00;20;07;08 - 00;20;27;20
Derek
I guess I'm just like the I don't think any category value gets spared here, and I really am stretch to figure out if anything. Yeah, if anything isn't, you know, massively impacted by this. And I think slowly markets are starting to price around that idea. It's I think it's going to take time because it's just such a wacky thing to think about.
00;20;27;20 - 00;20;36;14
Derek
But yeah I don't know I just I the Harvey thing is interesting because I'm like, we're again like we're, we're we're here again. Yeah, I don't know. It's interesting.
00;20;36;17 - 00;20;54;16
Aaron
Well, I think it comes to a head there because, you know, lawyers build by the time they actually like profit from inefficiency. And I think consultants do that in part. Right. Like they're not they're not fully aligned with their customers and clients to actually get things done fast, which I think is why it's kind of like an interesting little question, right?
00;20;54;19 - 00;21;18;05
Derek
Yeah, I, I think that's interesting. I will say like, listen, I think for as long as attorneys are going to last, like as long as their billing process is opaque and yeah, they can still use these tools even if they claim they're not, I guess the maybe the point I'm making, unlike the efficiency gains that they get and how that may or may not translate to kind of like the business model of billable hours.
00;21;18;05 - 00;21;54;08
Derek
I think your original point, that was a really good one, which is just like that, just like all of this stuff, like the cost structures and the revenue structures of how business has been built across the world for hundreds and hundreds of years. That all gets pretty disintermediated quickly with this technology. And so like, I think maybe the, the, maybe the, the salient point in here for all of us is just like if we do believe that this technology is going to lay waste to all of like these existing structures, then there's going to be like this messy period where people are, you know, it's, you know, square peg, round hole economically.
00;21;54;08 - 00;22;14;20
Derek
I'm trying to like, translate how they're using these tools to the thing that they do. But I think on the, the, maybe the long arc of time, we can all agree that just like the way the practice of law or like the way the practice of education or the way the practice of plumbing, all of this stuff is going to have to account for, like, these new efficient realities.
00;22;14;20 - 00;22;23;08
Derek
And there's going to be a lot of maybe like, yeah, maybe like pain by, you know, existing structures while they try and figure that stuff out.
00;22;23;10 - 00;22;24;02
Aaron
I'm with you, Derek.
00;22;24;07 - 00;22;36;23
Pri
The thing with the Harvey thing, which is interesting because it's like all over the timeline. And then you have the Harvey investors coming out saying like, hey, you know, people are actually using it like, this is all FUD. And I, you know, it's hard to know whether or not lawyers are actually using. And it seems like many are.
00;22;36;23 - 00;22;53;09
Pri
But I don't know if people are saying they're not. Do you feel like, though at some point that like the Elon becomes good enough that people don't want to pay these expensive seats for Harvey and it just becomes like all swallowed? I mean, that's the biggest question I think with investing in AI right now is like, well, we'll deal eventually.
00;22;53;09 - 00;23;18;20
Pri
Just capture the value for this vertical. Like, I mean, I, for example, have put contracts there. And this is of course like in my more like just whatever, not, not paid, just my own personal use. And honestly, it does a fine job. So I'm like curious what exponential value it's going to be like what Aaron said. It's just like amazing UX handles these nitty gritty problems that like the old ones aren't even thinking about.
00;23;18;22 - 00;23;21;29
Pri
And that's just where the value is. Like just basically.
00;23;22;02 - 00;23;40;19
Derek
Maybe just to tie back to Aaron's conversation, I think maybe I'm indexing on Harvey as being like the winner here. I actually don't know if that's true or not. Like, I don't know what the unit economics are at a very, very fine level for Harvey. I don't know if the valuation on the revenue support kind of like the way that business will unfold.
00;23;40;19 - 00;24;03;24
Derek
I don't know, you know, if like the thing that they're doing, which is like allowing attorneys to buy seats to use this product is the actual business model of how, I guess, applied to the practice of law, both on litigation and transaction sides. I just know that, like the concept of using AI to perform legal engineering is like it's kind of fucking product market fit written all over it.
00;24;04;00 - 00;24;28;28
Derek
It's just going to continue to become more and more important. So maybe if it's even if it's not Harvey, it's hard to imagine a world where, like the practice of law isn't severely impacted by language models being performed against language jobs and and and maybe that doesn't happen through Harvey. Maybe it happens through some other business model. What's way better economics or local local inference?
00;24;29;01 - 00;24;46;24
Derek
Against local models that are fine tuned on whatever, hundreds of years of case law and, and, you know, you know, real time look at, you know, laws as they map at the state level, federal level and whatever. Like, all of these things just become so cheap to run locally that, like, Harvey doesn't even need to exist.
00;24;46;24 - 00;25;05;20
Derek
You don't need a Harvey. You don't even need a Harvey like I. I am fully on board with that idea. Like, I think that could be true, but the premise of the FUD that I'm seeing, which is attorneys don't find it useful and don't want to use this stuff, I just find completely insane. Like, I just, I fundamentally think that's like sticking your head in the sand.
00;25;05;20 - 00;25;10;14
Derek
I just I don't think that that's correct. I don't think that's where we're going. I don't think that makes any sense.
00;25;10;16 - 00;25;27;27
Aaron
Yeah. I mean, I agree with that. I think it's the same. I think we're going to this is one thing I see next year, which is that same pattern we've seen with software engineering is just going to happen in other kind of classes of, you know, like high reasoning, white collar work, lawyers being like one of the alpha predators there, right?
00;25;27;27 - 00;25;48;02
Aaron
Like being a high end lawyer. It's tough stuff, right. Or like a judge or, you know, handling these types of questions. It's why they command such high wages, like outside of the the bar and like the monopolistic parts of being a lawyer, it's because it is at the core, like dealing with very hard things. A lot like software engineering needs to be similar in that regard.
00;25;48;05 - 00;26;13;24
Aaron
And I think we're kind of in this phase of very your head in the sand related to it, and then it's going to turn into like acceptance, Derek. And then then it's going to, I think turn into like disintermediation of that function. I think it, I think that's like the three beats of how this stuff gets rolled out and a whole bunch of different like, avenues, like my bet is actually a lot of these like vertical integrated tools, including like cursor access.
00;26;13;24 - 00;26;41;20
Aaron
I think next year is going to be a lot tougher for them than they realize. Just because a if you can ship that degree of software that I was mentioning, people are going to opt out of using it. And to I just think open source models are going to get good enough, where if you're just reselling like anthropic, which is what I, you know, one way to kind of view cursor, they're just really reselling anthropic or what OpenAI is, is I think doing for Harvey, my understanding is they use that as their base model.
00;26;41;20 - 00;26;49;06
Aaron
Maybe I'm wrong about that, but that's my understanding. I just think it's going to be harder and harder to kind of maintain that, that software and that business model.
00;26;49;09 - 00;27;15;25
Chris
Yeah. For sure. So we have one 2026 prediction in the books, which is Luddites are going to lose again. On the on this other one, I agree with you completely. I would be very, very nervous if I'm a cursor. 11 labs is another one. You know, basically their whole flagship product just got blown out of the water by open source, a couple different models this week.
00;27;15;27 - 00;27;40;27
Chris
I'm kind of caught in, like, weird periods of time. And so, like, there's this big, high profile bankruptcy and like, loan default going on in LA around Gary Winick and this, Casa Encantada, which is like one of the, most prestige properties in all of LA. He was the founder of Global Crossing Global Crossing Ltd, undersea cables.
00;27;40;27 - 00;28;04;21
Chris
They were like the broadband boom. You know, one of the sort of like both, explosive successes and cautionary tales. It was wild as I was, like, reading up on the story because they I could like, point back to so many different people I worked with in that industry after after the bust and see so many of like the patterns of like, you know why they went through Gary Winnick life.
00;28;04;21 - 00;28;43;21
Chris
I'm like, oh, that's that guy. That's our guy, that's our guy. But one of the other things that was really striking was the Global crossing was only really a going concern for like three years, like 1999 to 2002, you know, then like, I am kind of flash forward in a little bit to crypto and seeing like a lot of like similar pattern matching between how a lot of these huge crypto, projects or founders or etc., like, behaved and, you know, like I think it's, it's one of these things when you're riding high, you're you don't know your limit and you keep pushing and you keep pushing and you're very caught up in the moment.
00;28;43;23 - 00;29;06;00
Chris
And so it's going to be very, very difficult to have a, like a balanced, I think, maybe vision of what's going on and where you're weak or where you're exposed because you just got to be. I got to I got to ship another version of cursor. I've got to like, integrate this feature over here. And I mean, and like this space really is shrinking from the firehose.
00;29;06;00 - 00;29;37;25
Chris
I mean, even in, like, the narrow niche I'm playing around in right now, I can't look at everything that's coming out. It just it's too much. And so, yes, like the valuations floating around all of these things and what their core flagship products are and that, you know, to escape that gap, even even cursor is a form of escape, right, is to develop their own foundational coding model, but does not just put them, you know, in a 11 lab sort of situation next as well.
00;29;37;25 - 00;29;53;09
Chris
And so I do think there's going to be a lot of bloodshed, and there's going to be a lot of these early high fliers that are just going to get torn to pieces by the commoditization of like, model specialties.
00;29;53;12 - 00;30;26;22
Aaron
Yeah, I agree with that, Chris. I think next year is going to be the year when open source kind of like reasserts its its dominance and, and kind of erodes some of these perceived moats that, you know, cursors like fine tuning a model. I'm not convinced that some other like open source model just doesn't lap them. And kind of same thing for level labs, like I think that's a bunch of it, you know, because I do think next year it seems like a pretty safe bet that we're going to get like 100%, parity with like, a software engineer, like 100% benchmark.
00;30;26;24 - 00;30;50;26
Aaron
And most work right now is, is that and I think it's going to take time for humans. And I know you're doing this right now, like to reimagine what software can look like such that you're going to really demand, you know, the 200% sweat equity model that these hyperscalers will be able to charge for. And so I definitely think we're going to see a lot of like open source, like flexing when it comes to AI.
00;30;50;29 - 00;31;04;24
Aaron
And that's where I think it dovetails into what I think. You see, Derek, which is a lot of this like AI plus crypto like overlap. I still think like token models. Maybe the best way to, to kind of like capture that energy, like, around those projects.
00;31;04;26 - 00;31;08;02
Derek
I love tokens, gotta make them better. But I love them.
00;31;08;04 - 00;31;09;26
Aaron
I love them too, and I agree.
00;31;09;28 - 00;31;12;23
Pri
Should we do a crypto prediction for 26?
00;31;12;25 - 00;31;13;13
Aaron
Yeah, let's do it.
00;31;13;21 - 00;31;43;05
Derek
Crypto predictions for 26 okay, I'll throw one, which is I actually think 2026 is the year both the legislative and regulatory harmonization for this asset class actually provides Guideposts, rules for innovation in the US to actually to to work to like have have lights on and Guideposts on how they can operate and work and bring value. And I wrote a little thread about this yesterday, but I yeah, enough is enough.
00;31;43;05 - 00;32;04;17
Derek
Like we have everything we need. The tech works. The materials are here. The last piece of this puzzle is just like getting this harmonization piece together around, an incentive, a labor incentive mechanic, which is a token and the value that it can accrue, once it's owned by somebody who's who's holding it and or participating in that labor network.
00;32;04;19 - 00;32;07;22
Derek
And I think we've never been closer. I think it happens in 2026.
00;32;07;26 - 00;32;30;29
Aaron
Yeah. I'm with you like strong underline plus 100 plus 1000 on that. Let's fucking go. Yeah I mean it's it really I mean I've been using this analogy. Just tell it two cities like the fundamentals in crypto are just outstanding right now. But the sentiment is just brutal. And I just think I agree I think that the regulatory stuff will go through and it's necessary.
00;32;30;29 - 00;32;54;06
Aaron
I mean like that's what kicked off the.com boom. Right? It was actually like a bunch of laws. There was a two laws, the Communications Decency Act and the the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, which wasn't exactly law. But bear with me on that. For for those that are super detail oriented and, you know, we never would have gotten the dotcom boom without them, that gave like enough flexibility for people to build and operate and I think the same thing's going to happen to crypto.
00;32;54;14 - 00;33;13;09
Aaron
So I think that that that the second and third order effects that are a little bit harder to, to kind of perceive like one one thing could be like a resurgence of the Erc20 markets. Like more liquidity comes in, it gets professionalized. I don't know fully if that's the case. I think that I don't know if, like the traditional finance is kind of there.
00;33;13;11 - 00;33;28;14
Aaron
I do think I mean, pretty much every single leader of a traditional financial institution, including the regulators, are saying that they want, you know, always. So I do think RWA man will continue. We'll continue to have a good year. And in, in 2026.
00;33;28;19 - 00;33;30;07
Pri
What happens to the dots?
00;33;30;09 - 00;33;49;09
Aaron
I think the I think the debts consolidate. I think that there is value to it. Like in my mind, I really think it's a it's a nice what you need to have like menus of options for people. And it's a nice way for people to, to gain exposure to digital assets and these like, you know, increasingly like non correlated digital assets like bitcoin and ether.
00;33;49;11 - 00;34;07;18
Aaron
I think that the L1 L2 narrative just is, with one exception, probably going to really die down a bit. You know, I do think we'll see like a base and a base token in some way. I think that's going to be a big deal, but I just don't think that there's as much it's kind of like the, the broadband providers that you're mentioning, Chris.
00;34;07;18 - 00;34;13;28
Aaron
Like, I think that windows just kind of closing a little bit, on that front, I feel like that's kind of what the market's also saying now.
00;34;14;03 - 00;34;34;25
Chris
Yeah, it'd be nice if, you know, we finally get through this, the fact that we're two months removed and everyone's still speculating on what exactly went down on 1010 is, a little a bit of a mystery there. Right leg. The mystery of how people are still able to keep this under wraps, you know, 60 plus days later.
00;34;35;02 - 00;35;03;18
Chris
But let me, let me throw a crystal ball question out to, Derek here. Derek. So ERC is are going to come back. That's that's a take my question for you then becomes will the comeback be sort of like organizational institutional i.e. you're going to both get a clarity act and some form of like gaps for on chain, like, you know, generally accepted accounting principles.
00;35;03;18 - 00;35;14;29
Chris
Because I did read your thread, I felt like you devoted a decent amount of time kind of into, into like, the struggles of reconciling off chain and on chain costs and behavior.
00;35;14;29 - 00;35;18;28
Derek
I'm just happy you're at it, dude. You nailed it. I'm happy to read it, Chris. Thank you.
00;35;19;01 - 00;35;22;04
Chris
Yeah, that's all anyone's happy for these days. But I.
00;35;22;04 - 00;35;27;05
Derek
Wrote it. I wrote it for maybe an audience of 30 to actually read it. I'm happy that people actually took it.
00;35;27;05 - 00;35;28;15
Aaron
Was a good one. Derek. It was.
00;35;28;15 - 00;35;50;25
Chris
Independent. I appreciate number 31 because it's really not for me, but I, I did know I'd be on a podcast with you and I need to fill some air. And so I did read it. Thank you for that. But so we've got like this normie packaging and now people can feel comfortable. Class of Erc20 is I'm going to propose a different way in which this could take off.
00;35;50;25 - 00;36;12;01
Chris
And that someone introduces a dead simple model, such as coins for compute, in which they build a product. It it uses AI, it creates useful things. Compute costs money. Coins are free to give away. You buy $10 of commute for compute. For this thing to perform, you get $10 of tokens in return.
00;36;12;03 - 00;36;30;21
Derek
I so I I don't. So I first of all just say like I think that's a that is definitely something that could exist and may exist. I think the thing that's clear to me is that maybe just taking a step. So yeah, first thing I'll say is like, I agree with the thesis there. And I do think that private markets will solve some of the problems that I laid out.
00;36;30;21 - 00;36;49;12
Derek
But maybe taking a step back, the thing that I do feel very strongly about is blockchains as they exist today, are pretty agnostic to like whatever you want to do with them. We've got teams that are building like very deep, technical, you know, amms or staking protocols that just basically live on chain. All the revenues live on chain.
00;36;49;16 - 00;37;09;21
Derek
They pay their developers on chain. Like that is a way you can use this, this putty to like make something useful. You've also got like businesses who basically just use the blockchain as a recording format and like, you know, they're generating revenue off chain. Maybe they're selling, I don't know, it could be like a tokenized merch and it's chips and it lives on a blockchain.
00;37;09;21 - 00;37;31;17
Derek
And you know, maybe they want to launch a royalty token. And so that exists on chain. But, you know, the vast majority of the revenues and the expenses and how they operate, like that's none of that exists on a blockchain. And then you've got everything kind of like in the middle between there. It's like, I think it just like the point is, like blockchains are basically just a really good global database that anybody can read or write to that run 24/7.
00;37;31;17 - 00;37;55;21
Derek
And those properties become very interesting for all types of products and services to exist. The point of my thread was like, the way people are using this stuff is leading to a lot of problems in having tokens become valuable. And the reason, I mean, there's a number of reasons. The first things that you mentioned were like, we don't really have standards in place to track on chain and off chain revenue.
00;37;55;29 - 00;38;26;02
Derek
We don't really have standards in place to check on chain, off chain expenses. And so for the teams that are launching these tokens, like right out of the gates, it's really difficult for a market to price them like you would an equity or a debt instrument, because nobody knows what the fuck is going on. It's like these, you know, we have like these self certifications where like maybe the team is publishing some of like these statements on their website, or maybe they're doing something in their forum or maybe, you know, they're they said we just signed this monster, you know, 10 million deal.
00;38;26;02 - 00;38;48;20
Derek
And trust us. And we're going to buy and bring back our tokens. So you'll see it in the chart. But the truth is, is like, this is some third world like accounting that's happening around how around crypto tokens, I would say like the first problem is just like trying to solve some minimum viable disclosure standards for projects who are operating crypto with the token because like right now, there's no way institutional capital is going to move in.
00;38;48;20 - 00;39;12;17
Derek
And just like take your take people's word for it, that's just not how equity markets work. That's not how things get priced. That's it just it's a total disservice to like the idea that these things can become valuable if the information asymmetries as wide as it's ever been. And so I talked a little bit about like, how some of the efforts within both legislative and Congress and some private market efforts are hoping to solve some of these things on both sides.
00;39;12;19 - 00;39;32;18
Derek
I think the last piece, like the maybe the bigger piece, the piece that everyone kind of recognizes as wacky, is this idea that, like the whole most of these projects that end up launching tokens and I put money tokens aside, like, I'm not talking about Bitcoin, I'm not talking about Bitcoin. Sure. I'm not talking about slot or Ethereum or layer ones or commodity money projects like put that to the side.
00;39;32;18 - 00;39;49;12
Derek
I think those can be valued in their own way. I'm not really interested in kind of like adding to that pile of disclosure for this essay, but for tokens where like there's a very clear product or service that wants to generate revenue and they want to bring that back to a token somehow to, like, make the token viable.
00;39;49;15 - 00;40;26;11
Derek
There is so many competing ideologies in market right now, and also from a regulatory perspective that is preventing that end state from existing or and, and and in part it stems from like the original sin of projects who don't really know if their tokens can be viable in the United States raising money and when they do it, allowing investors to either to invest in both the equity of the business and the token in the business to retain maximum optionality, because like it's it's still unclear to them, like, are we going to be able to launch a token that actually can be valuable, can be equity like, even if it's powered by a network, even if
00;40;26;11 - 00;40;56;09
Derek
like 51% of this network and the people who own it and stored it are not the team. And as a result, it's led to some really perverse incentives around, you know, teams getting acquired while a token still exists, or teams launching a token but not making it valuable or, you know, every variation. Then there in the I guess the real point of this is like, I've been in this space for so long at this point, I've watched this just, like crash and burn over and over and over again and like, these are such solvable problems.
00;40;56;09 - 00;41;26;26
Derek
Like, we have solved these problems everywhere else but crypto. And I think the frustrating thing for me is, you know, we we're now at a point where, like the tech really works so well on so many different dimensions. We have the ability to kind of bootstrap labor networks all around the world 24/7 doing anything like from, you know, myopically providing liquidity for a protocol to, you know, it, you know, having people contribute compute or inference or, you know, train models in decentralized settings or, you know, on and on the list goes on.
00;41;26;26 - 00;41;47;22
Derek
It's just like it's an incredible tokens are an incredible way to bootstrap labor markets. But we we are still at the point where we're in the Stone age is around why these tokens should be valuable. And I'm just like, I've had enough. And so I wrote this thing about like, here's the things that I see. The problems here are the private market solutions that are clearly, you know, being explored because people are demanding this stuff.
00;41;47;22 - 00;42;12;05
Derek
And I listed out a bunch like the Uniswap stuff, the unification proposal. There's the rainbow, you know, pre TGA harmonization that they're doing. Método and Colosseum just partnered up to create something called stamp for projects to no longer use the token warrant and safe structure in private markets, early stage AI. But there's also all of this public stuff like federal stuff, you know, that I feel like it's never been closer.
00;42;12;05 - 00;42;35;10
Derek
Both you know, the SEC using its rulemaking authority, which they've articulated that they're going to do, or at least the in the white House market report that came out a couple of months ago, flagged up the SEC should do this. There's all the legislative stuff that's running through Congress right now. And when you actually go through these, you know, kind of the meat and potatoes of like these ideas inside of these documents, it's like, man, okay, we're here.
00;42;35;10 - 00;42;59;12
Derek
We've got it. Everyone understands the problems. They're starting to approach solutions both in private markets and and through federal legislation and regulation. And I feel like people are missing the forest from the trees of that. So I just tried to kind of, you know, show everyone what I'm seeing, get everyone kind of on the same page about whoever wanted to read it again, like I thought maybe 20 or 30 people would read this thing and like, show that, like, hey, there is a silver lining to all this, and I think we're pretty close.
00;42;59;12 - 00;43;03;06
Derek
So anyway, I don't know if that's useful, but that's how I'm seeing stuff.
00;43;03;08 - 00;43;25;02
Aaron
I thought I thought it was a great framing and I'm glad we're we're kind of chatting this all through. In my mind, the way I interpret that, Derek, is like the there's like protocol assets like Bitcoin and eath. You know, from my vantage point, hopefully we're not 2026 is when we're not talking about other you know, you know deep protocol level assets.
00;43;25;04 - 00;43;54;24
Aaron
I just I just think it creates like a lot of confusion. And they probably are a lot of them are probably not going to make it. So the attention should be kind of at that app layer. And then there is like these open questions related related to like where does how do you align incentives there. I do think personally like actually what like Blackbird is doing has always been super compelling to me where they are trying to build network value before they subject themselves to kind of the, the, the more open and speculative token markets.
00;43;55;00 - 00;44;23;11
Aaron
And I wonder if it kind of gravitate towards that. And I wonder if, if there's a little bit of a false choice there where you can actually have both, right, like an equity based company that is like stewarding, like an app based in like an app token based economy. And like that works because you're almost like, multichannel, like you, you can appeal to traditional markets, but at the same time appeal to like the faster growing crypto markets, which which I think is going to be a big and an increasing trend.
00;44;23;11 - 00;44;45;15
Aaron
Right. Like those traditional markets are huge, but they're going to become smaller and smaller on a percentage basis over the next, you know, five, ten, 15, 20 years. And so you want to kind of serve both markets. And I wonder if that's that's kind of in my mind where I could see land. I know that there's a lot of devil's in the detail type questions, which you're appropriately highlighting, but that's kind of what I see there.
00;44;45;17 - 00;45;03;14
Derek
Yeah, I think that's a great I think that those are great points. And I think my hope is that all of this stuff becomes available. Like these are just tools. Like what the, the BlackBerry example is a tool to use these use blockchains and, and incentive networks to kind of like develop that line of business here in America.
00;45;03;17 - 00;45;23;08
Derek
And like that should be acknowledged. And there should be broad rules of the road for that pathway to exist, just like there should be for like Uniswap, token and Amms. And I think that's the piece that I'm like most excited about. It's like I'm finally seeing take shape, like these frameworks that allow for all of this stuff to happen.
00;45;23;08 - 00;45;49;19
Derek
And the reality is, is it there's some like minimum viable disclosures that will be part of this. There's probably some like safe harbors and time, you know, time bound, you know, pathways for exploration innovation. So like maybe, you know, you're you get a grace period where you're not a security to explore this stuff at a certain time. It becomes a commodity that powers this network token or chips into a pure vanilla security because it's a very clear, you know, it very cleanly.
00;45;49;19 - 00;46;06;04
Derek
Maps like outside of like this network play. And so, yeah, I guess like, dude, we're at like the one yard line here. And my hope is that the US just doesn't blow it again. That's really what it comes down to for me. Because like, I don't know if if my, my silly little heart can take it.
00;46;06;06 - 00;46;25;12
Aaron
I think, you know, I think that we're not going to blow it in part because I think that traditional finance wants us now, which I think they did in the past. But I think they've kind of, form that consensus. Right? Like the big ad. That's why I think this stuff is just going to happen next year. It's not because of the political party in charge.
00;46;25;12 - 00;46;44;29
Aaron
I think it's really industry that kind of wants it. And for better or worse, I think that they do drive like parts of the legislative and political agenda. Okay. Yeah, I just think I just think that that's kind of the case. And what they want right now is more always. So that's why RWA man probably will have a a good year.
00;46;45;01 - 00;47;05;05
Aaron
But I think that that's like a really narrow view of what's possible. And then we'll get into like some of the more fun things that people that I've been in the space obsessed with the space, like in Around the Trenches or, or probably I find more interesting. So it may not move as fast as people want. And like what I was saying before, people want speed.
00;47;05;05 - 00;47;21;10
Aaron
But I think that directionally that's just what's happening, right? Like wallets are almost like email addresses. Stablecoins are like a first mechanic that people learn, and then they're going to kind of move up that like crypto hierarchy to like more fun, interesting things. So it's of.
00;47;21;16 - 00;47;49;12
Pri
Practically speaking to though, wouldn't it be odd just to pass a stablecoin, create like this dollar backed token and then not have assets to buy with said stablecoin because a legal regulatory like it? To me, I feel like this because the stablecoin bill passed like it needs to be paired with the Clarity Act. So like naturally that would have sort of have to happen to give like the stablecoin, the full utility it can have.
00;47;49;12 - 00;48;09;05
Pri
I don't know if that's like assuming a ton. Like, sure, you could have stablecoins that lives totally separately from other tokenized on chain assets that the stablecoin bill will help clear up. But like it would enable it and be in lockstep with the stablecoin bill, why wouldn't it passed like it feels like? Honestly, it should have just been done together.
00;48;09;05 - 00;48;16;03
Pri
But I understand, obviously, like some things are easier to convince the masses to, to adopt than others.
00;48;16;05 - 00;48;33;05
Aaron
I think that's right. So we you see a lot of regulatory clarity coming. Derek. And then, the second and third order effects of an empowering like a new class of builder creator to kind of begin to sift through these additional questions that are still a little bit unclear.
00;48;33;07 - 00;48;37;15
Pri
I feel like it's not a different story on the art NFT side either, honestly.
00;48;37;18 - 00;48;38;07
Aaron
In what sense?
00;48;38;08 - 00;49;10;12
Pri
It's it's like it's changing. It's evolving. But like, similar to how these institutions came in and the legal, regulatory sort of there's more at stake. I think obviously we're talking about financial regulation, but with the NFT stuff, it does feel like it's like it's own different maturation, just like seeing zero turn and I feel like the market's kind of bifurcating a little bit with like these traditional buyers and even like on chain buyers, not necessarily like correlated to the on chain market activity.
00;49;10;12 - 00;49;31;27
Pri
But like, I don't know, it's it's kind of this interesting thing where like there's like smaller set sizes, people are just buying things for the art as opposed to the network collection thesis. I think still that exists, but it does feel like those that like NFT market and traditional art market are like some of the NFTs are crossing over into the traditional art market.
00;49;31;27 - 00;49;40;18
Pri
But the NFT market itself is kind of not correlated with what's happening with like, digital art in the traditional ones.
00;49;40;21 - 00;50;11;24
Chris
I don't know where NFTs are going. I think that's, a question only time is going to tell. It's obviously it's a file format. The file format is not going anywhere. But then as a movement, you cannot hold it center of gravity. Do do we even need to be calling these, you know, calling it the space or a movement or, you know, to your point, Brie, does it start branching out and, you know, digital art, right, is delivered in the form of an NFT.
00;50;11;27 - 00;50;35;13
Chris
But, you know, when it goes down to a place like our Basil and 0 to 10, it's it is digital art. And, you know, when, it, I don't know, characters that well, and then it's an NFT community because it kind of fits that. But then, you know, one thing I, I did the, the autonomous forest I mentioned, a plot there.
00;50;35;13 - 00;50;37;26
Chris
I ux Tara to relax. Right.
00;50;37;26 - 00;50;40;08
Pri
Like tier zero or something to zero.
00;50;40;08 - 00;51;08;01
Chris
Yeah. I, I should really be able to properly shout out projects when I participate in them, you know. But then, I mean, that is a whole bunch of different things. And it's clearly like it is an aligned community or it's an expression of interest right in, in a concept. Now, am I, like, ever really going to think about it again?
00;51;08;01 - 00;51;41;14
Chris
Is it ever really going to go anywhere other than knowing that there is a group of people, you know, who, wanted to preserve green space in Germany and they package up an innovative way to do it. And I guess I was just happy to support that. Right. And maybe that's that mentality in that mindset is what helps, you know, NFTs continue on is that all of these expectations, which turned toxic, you know, towards the end of that bull run and then left a bad taste in people's mouths for a couple of years.
00;51;41;17 - 00;52;01;04
Chris
We can wipe out that whole speculative mindset, and we can understand and treat these things on their own terms when they present themselves and that's a healthy way forward. I mean, you know, like to go to the whole like, oh, people in Basel and, you know, all that brouhaha. I mean, it's the art world. So there's always going to be that sort of, sort of stuff.
00;52;01;04 - 00;52;34;21
Chris
But like, how many more years are we going to have this, you know, this conversation where, you know, the chain of NFTs or the chain of crypto? You know, has to get like, dragged along into all of these things. And we can't just say like, this is a brilliant pop artist performing, you know, contemporary satire and like, a reading of the times and whatever the underlying, you know, distribution mechanism, a form factor is it doesn't it doesn't really matter.
00;52;34;23 - 00;52;52;17
Aaron
I think we're getting there. I mean, I think that's the end point for crypto too, right? But, you know, there was there was a great podcast, you know, shout out to the guys at Bank last they had that bitwise focus on and they were talking about their predictions for 2026. And the folks from bitwise, they had a lot of really interesting things to say.
00;52;52;17 - 00;53;06;19
Aaron
But one thing that jumped out to me is they noted it's okay to call things crypto now, and I don't think that that would have been the case a year ago, or even two years or two years ago, or even a year ago. And I think it's kind of the same thing with NFTs. I do think the movement piece matters.
00;53;06;19 - 00;53;30;24
Aaron
Again, it kind of coheres people, you know, and we can define the boundaries of it. But I think NFTs have just been humming along a little bit like stablecoins. If you actually look at the number of wallets that have NFTs, the number of, NFTs that are created, it keeps on going up, like silently in the background. I think a lot of the most innovative builders in the space that are still plugging along, they're in two categories, ones like deep and front.
00;53;30;24 - 00;53;51;16
Aaron
And the second is around NFTs. The middle is kind of a little bit cramped. And so I, you know, wouldn't be shocked. I think it's more of an outside chance of, you know, seeing a lot of interesting things, kind of happen. And then I know that there's like, you know, more and more kind of institutional adoption. I think what's fascinating is like, you know, the legacy players are kind of, you know, putting aside their critiques.
00;53;51;16 - 00;53;58;16
Aaron
They're kind of geeked on this stuff, too. Like, they see it. They kind of know that this is the future and are aligning themselves, like appropriately.
00;53;58;19 - 00;54;05;10
Pri
It's the medium of our time. It makes total sense. So yeah, I think we'll see more of it. Do we want to touch on math castles for year?
00;54;05;12 - 00;54;28;09
Chris
Yeah. Speaking of people who keep humming along, let's, let's give a big shout out to Math Castles, Terraform and, you know, friend of the show, 113 on their fourth birthday. And it was a couple days ago. I was, I was really happy that I was actually able to hop into a space for once, you know, one, one, three kind of started doing faces again over the last month or so.
00;54;28;09 - 00;54;56;10
Chris
And they've always like fallen in horrible times. This one I could get in and there's just so much love, I think, for what he and his old, not only like the work they've created in Terraform, but I think I think more so the the community, the space, the what they represent and what their north stars are. It's it's very, I don't know, like, needed.
00;54;56;13 - 00;55;32;15
Chris
You know, I think crypto is full of seekers and they're various types of seekers. You know, we got people who want to get rich or we've got people in generative art and want to be part of the next great contemporary art movement. And I think one thing that is really unique about Math castles is they attract this group of seekers who are builders, who are like technological optimists, who want to, like, improve themselves through addressing and mastering the tools of the time.
00;55;32;17 - 00;55;54;18
Chris
You know, without a lot of all this baggage that we sort of talk about, right? Like, these are just people who want agency. And I think in one, one, three and, you know, the discord and the talks and everything like surrounding, math castles, like, it's, it's a constant, you know, I don't think anything's really changed over the last four years that, you know, we've been aware of.
00;55;54;18 - 00;56;14;10
Chris
And, like, what what they're about and what they represent just keeps on keeping on. And, you know, as all this other stuff crumbles around us, it's just, you know, I do think it's something that's extremely positive and hopeful and like, you know, just amazing work. So happy birthday Terraform.
00;56;14;12 - 00;56;16;26
Aaron
Happy birthday. Yeah I mean I like.
00;56;16;29 - 00;56;18;05
Pri
The triple click.
00;56;18;05 - 00;56;24;12
Aaron
That Chris I mean I think they, they, you know, 1131. We should get them on the pod. Until.
00;56;24;13 - 00;56;27;14
Chris
We finish on the pod. But we should get a little bit of the.
00;56;27;16 - 00;56;46;06
Aaron
I know I'm saying bring them back like, in the, in the new year and two, I just feel like that's always been the vanguard. I think he lives in the future. I think he has a really clear view of where things are going and is always pushing the envelope, both in terms of like the art as media, in terms of like the technical aspects of it.
00;56;46;08 - 00;57;02;01
Aaron
I just think he has a really good touch and feel for that. And so, you know, I'm excited and that's what gives me a lot of hope that, you know, there's a lot of folks that kind of see that and, are still, you know, are still there, which is super cool.
00;57;02;03 - 00;57;13;25
Chris
All right. What else you want to touch on before we, we wrap this one? We we got any, your closing remarks for for the year? We got any. I mean, things you want to get project out. Any high positions?
00;57;13;27 - 00;57;40;13
Aaron
Yeah, I'm going to high position something which is one of my more like out there takes. But I think next year, maybe the year, the metaverse. And I don't see that many people talking about it. But I think meta is going to kind of have a Google like comeback. You know, they haven't released that much since llama three, a lot of where their head seems to be from their public releases, a lot of these world models, and we're obviously seeing a lot of these other world model builders coming out.
00;57;40;13 - 00;58;01;26
Aaron
It's moving really fast, super fascinating. And I just think, I think like Zuck may get a little vindicated this year. And even some of the Web3 folks that were in like in metaverse land, they maybe just were a couple years too early. But this could be not at the beginning of the year, but really towards the end of the year, I think we could see like a fair amount of like metaverse activity.
00;58;01;29 - 00;58;26;10
Aaron
It just feels like the pieces are kind of falling together there. And I do think whatever that final version the metaverse will be will have a little bit of this digital asset like, you know, virtual, currency type elements to it. So I'm kind of like hoping that that happens. And if it doesn't happen this year, maybe, maybe into next year, but it feels like it's brewing in like, brewing pretty hard at this point.
00;58;26;12 - 00;59;05;10
Chris
Well, you're talking about some like a field I'm playing in, and I didn't really expect to be playing it. You know, I didn't think like three.js was going to be the, like primary display, language I was going to be working in. And so I will say, yes, I agree with you. I think the metaverse is something that maybe people got counted out, or maybe the early versions or, you know, like the dial up versions were so clunky and an appealing and we just didn't really understand the, the patterns and what consumers are willing to do and not willing to do in these things.
00;59;05;10 - 00;59;44;18
Chris
Plus, the tech is just getting a million times better. And so I, I definitely can see it. I think, you know, the the timelines are cooked. The algo is a code that we all we all understand what's wrong in the world. And what we haven't seen yet is what's the right way forward. And I will say, like having worked in this space a little bit and not really expecting to find myself there, there's been moments for me where I felt like I ripped a hole in the sky, and it kind of leaves you, a little awestruck, a little like, I don't know, sort of goofy or thrown off kilter.
00;59;44;18 - 01;00;14;15
Chris
It's a bit like, almost like being in, like a Terrence Malick film, like, you know, like one of those thin red lines in a new world or, you know, like where you have these sort of meditative moments of beauty where you find yourself caught up in this bigger thing. And I'm kind of getting a little, a little weird with it, but like, there and there's this new interaction pattern that I'm just starting to get glimpses of, which I do think are incredibly refreshing.
01;00;14;15 - 01;00;23;06
Chris
And once we understand them better and once we can gain control of them better, like they offer a way forward, right? And yeah.
01;00;23;10 - 01;00;24;07
Aaron
Completely.
01;00;24;10 - 01;00;40;18
Chris
Yeah. Like that's one thing where, you know, sometimes, like I had a really busy fall. It was a lot of like on the grind and just going and going and going and then you know, in the December I'm just working my ass off. And it was just getting a little hard for me. And like, I could see it in my prompting, you know.
01;00;40;18 - 01;01;00;11
Chris
And then I did kind of like, I don't know, like forced myself to take a step back and be like, dude, like, chill out. Like the world is. This is a massive mystery where all the part of you know that. Sure, we can talk about selection pressures and k-shaped economies and like everything is optimized and that's very true.
01;01;00;11 - 01;01;25;28
Chris
But like, we're also part of this enormous mystery called life. Like for everything that's like, you know, been figured out and over optimize or turn into like, these Darwinian games, like we're still, you know, just as people like, hurtling around in this, like, huge mystery that no one has the faintest clue about where it's going be, how it's going to turn out, or like how we even got here to begin with.
01;01;25;28 - 01;02;06;02
Chris
And it is very strange that like in a time where, you know, it's like the best of times, the worst of times, and it can really depend on what you choose to focus in on. Right? And look, it's impossible not to deal with, you know, like the, the economic realities of living in this world. I'm not saying, you know, dismissing that by any means, but like, there's all this other stuff going on and like all of these tools that are coming around with AI and our ability to, like, wield them faster and stronger, like, it's like we're sorcerers if we want to be and we can wander around and like, make new things, like ways
01;02;06;02 - 01;02;20;01
Chris
that we just blow everyone's minds. And so, yeah, like, you know, oh, the metaverse got the ick on it. And, you know, whatever it is, it's called facial. Then like I agree with you and you know, that's where I'm going.
01;02;20;03 - 01;02;40;27
Aaron
Oh yeah I think it's that, that was what really well said Chris, I think there's also just like other like structural trends that are like in favor of this happening. One is like, again, going back, if software is going to get easier to build, like the the, the scale and challenge of building, you know, this spatial world becomes easier and there's challenges, right?
01;02;40;27 - 01;03;07;08
Aaron
So you can imagine lots of developers wanting to be in that more challenging environment. Number one. Number two, you know, I think the up and coming generation, it's kind of their form factor to be exploring worlds together, whether that's in Minecraft, Roblox, you know, Fortnite. It's a much more, you know, immersive experience. Three I think everybody roughly feels that there's going to be a shift in so like social and it feels like spatial.
01;03;07;08 - 01;03;31;28
Aaron
Maybe the unlock there, you know, and and I think the last thing is kind of what you're describing, like people do kind of want a little bit of escapism. They want to like, explore. They want kind of like, like as a way to connect with people in like a different way. And I feel like these spatial environments may, may provide, you know, not a complete solution there, but at least like a partial solution.
01;03;32;00 - 01;03;51;29
Aaron
And so I think if we're thinking about like what the interfaces as like AI matures, it feels like the large, you know, large companies that are building the space, the roadmaps for kind of putting this direction, whether it's meta, Nvidia, or some of the newer ones. And I think the last piece really in my mind is I think this work kind of started really a year ago.
01;03;51;29 - 01;04;16;22
Aaron
And if you think about the cadence, it's kind of like a 1 to 3 year gestation and cooking period before it breaks out. So by the end of next year, it'll be like year two, which means that it will kind of be ready to go if you look like Midjourney, like two and a half, three years ago to, to to to to today, like it kind of hit an inflection point like really a year, year and a half after some of the earlier organizations exploring that, you know, sort of cooking.
01;04;16;28 - 01;04;34;04
Aaron
But so I think it's bubbling up. I don't think it's getting enough attention. I think it could be interesting. And I do think that there's some interesting like digital asset, like crypto components to that too, because I think all these worlds are going to want economies right. And that's kind of what makes some interesting investable, you know, fun to play in in part two.
01;04;34;06 - 01;04;38;21
Aaron
So that's kind of my more out there one that I needed to get off my chest.
01;04;38;28 - 01;05;01;09
Chris
So not unprecedented. And, you know, just you and me deep and deep into the pod here. I like, I think, part of me being able to reset my attitude and get out of that, like, doom or grind mentality and get a little more like Terrence Malick and the wonder of the world to moment to transcendent. Like mindset, right?
01;05;01;09 - 01;05;23;16
Chris
Was like, you know, I got three pieces of my system together, and I'm like, this isn't enough. There's something missing here. And it was gnawing at me, gnawing at me. I knew it was social, and for a while I was just hung up on this idea of, oh my God, like, how depressing is it going to be if there's all this, complexity under the surface and in this late layer?
01;05;23;16 - 01;05;39;22
Chris
And at the end of the day, all you do is lay like a chat app on top of it. And it's just people, you know, in a message box while all of this, like, insane shit happens underneath, at the end of the day, you're still just like flat chatting. And, you know, I was like, no, no, no.
01;05;39;22 - 01;06;02;05
Chris
Like I kind of had this sort of like semantic, soft, social like aggregation thing come together. That, like, I have no clue whether, you know, it will work or whether it'll be popular or like the right form factor, but it unlocked in me this, like, this thing that was just gnawing at me for so long, which was like, this is not enough.
01;06;02;05 - 01;06;28;14
Chris
Everything you're doing here is is interesting and it's great, but like, it's not going to get you over because it's too single player exploratory. And, you know, we live in a world where like, you know, it's it's the online coordination game. It's the age of networks. And if you're not participating in, you know, like network product design, like, you know, you might as well be off painting still lives somewhere.
01;06;28;19 - 01;06;58;01
Chris
And so like that to me is, you know, sort of like the problem of solving this metaverse thing is how do we get it in a, a contemporary or like a medium correct social design pattern in architecture? Because clearly, like we're running around literally playing Second Life or playing SimCity in the metaverse, which, you know, was a one like, that's antiquated, right?
01;06;58;02 - 01;07;14;13
Chris
Like that was everyone rejected that. And so at least I understand now, like the direction, even if I don't know, like the right way to get there. You know, I kind of had that oh, ha moment. Yeah. Like that. That to me is. Yeah, I don't know, go.
01;07;14;15 - 01;07;43;29
Aaron
Yeah. That's where I am. I just know it feels right directionally. And I just think, you know, I, I kind of have this mental model like, what does the internet want? And I think the internet wants this because it solves a lot of its problems. Like, it solves the, side effect of you know, atomization and loneliness. When you're like, in something together, it enables, like synchronicity, which I think the internet struggles with, like, you can have like a really cool spaces or, you know, people may remember from Covid, like clubhouse, people like that stuff.
01;07;43;29 - 01;08;04;19
Aaron
I think there's demand for it. But the two dimensional environment is not conducive to that. Even like streaming, if it's like Twitch or, you know, even like on X, right? They've got more streaming elements. It's still like TV, like it's not immersive enough to I just think the I think there are some lessons that will carry over, like, I, I don't know if there's a second life piece was off.
01;08;04;19 - 01;08;25;10
Aaron
I just think it wasn't enough. And now you'll have the ability to, you know, make it enough. Because it'll be easier to create objects, elements, experiences, like all those technical challenges were really daunting before, and now they're going to become increasingly trivial. So if you want to populate your world with a million, you know, objects like that used to be something a whole team would need to do.
01;08;25;15 - 01;08;48;25
Aaron
Now you're going to be probably able to do that by the end of next year. And like a prompt and, you know, the graphics are getting better. You know, more people have higher quality computers which can handle the graphics. There's ancillary hardware, whether it's VR, like all the pieces are kind of like roughly fallen in line. And I do think even like Roblox and Minecraft and, you know, Fortnite, they actually have really good business models.
01;08;48;25 - 01;09;07;10
Aaron
So people will want to invest into this, which is a critical component to, and even the crypto stuff is is more mature, right? Like it's easier to use it's lower cost, like you can do and build economies in these worlds. So I don't know, it feels like the stars are roughly aligning related to it. I like felt weird when that was popping into my head.
01;09;07;13 - 01;09;13;01
Aaron
Over the past month, but I don't know. Increasingly, I think it could could happen no more metaverse esque like that.
01;09;13;01 - 01;09;45;23
Chris
No, we need open country. We need wonder. And we need, just to get beyond everything that's been completely captured because the rate of capture is so quick and like, you know, like it is sort of that whole dark forest thing now where, you know, if you push anything compelling out into the world, it's co-opted and turned into an extraction machine or it's turned into, you know, like a, a tool of this existing, like, neoliberal Darwinian ism.
01;09;45;23 - 01;10;14;13
Chris
And I think that to me is, you know, when you go all the way back to the very beginning of the show, right? Like, what's the net benefit of being able to create a million lines of code in a month or whatever your, you know, your time frame is, it's we can experiment again. We can open new terrain that a like the the asked of the builder is low enough that they're they're allowed to experiment again.
01;10;14;13 - 01;10;42;11
Chris
Right. Like is everyone goes through these meatspace death of culture type stories. Right. And they talk about, well, why isn't New York a cultural force anymore? It's because, well, no one can afford to live here. Therefore, you only come to New York after you're established. If you're established, that means you produce established things, right? Where like. And so it's this whole like death of artistic third space is a criticism that why we're stuck in this ontological loop of culture.
01;10;42;14 - 01;11;08;27
Chris
But to me what you're talking about of like infinite software and infinite like accessibility to software is like we're we're now able to get beyond the reach. We can open all these weird new things and network space. And just through a sheer like Cambrian explosion of lower risks, lower costs, or like, you know, in my case, like this.
01;11;08;29 - 01;11;30;03
Chris
This shit ain't cheap, Aaron. You know, like, I'm, I'm spending a decent amount of money doing what I'm doing. Right. But, like, I can do it. I can do it by myself. And next month I can do it with another person who's coming on to join me. Right? But like, the whole point being is, none of this was possible prior to democratizing software development.
01;11;30;09 - 01;12;02;26
Chris
And so exactly. Yeah, I would like I'm bullish on the metaverse simply because. Right. Like we need even if it's, you know, like digital space, we need like space to be able to colonize space that like, has no claims upon it in which no one knows what to do. And that's what's going to give us the metaverse, I believe, or like, you know, spatial environment is the fact that, like, anyone can get out there and try to plant a flag and do their best to capture and capture.
01;12;02;26 - 01;12;09;01
Chris
I hate that word. But you know, like it's it's that Oklahoma land rush type of moment.
01;12;09;01 - 01;12;26;20
Aaron
Yeah, I think the Overton window like another way to say what you're saying, Chris, which is very well said, is just the Overton window is like opening up for this. It solves a lot of issues of the internet. And it also like gives like more space for people to run. I think both crypto and also the internet has become much more PvP.
01;12;26;20 - 01;12;52;21
Aaron
And you need that frontier to have growth, like to have optimism, to have like escape, to have exit. And I think that that is why we're going to see more, more stuff related to it. Or at least that's the argument that's kind of in my mind. I know you are probably spending quite a bit of money on that, but, we talked about this last week, but I think the costs of all that work is going to, you know, divide by, you know, a factor of 100, right?
01;12;52;21 - 01;13;04;23
Aaron
At a minimum, I think this year where it was a factor of 400. So this stuff is going to be in everybody's reach, or at least enough people's reach to kind of explore this new land. So I feel it. I think it's coming.
01;13;04;26 - 01;13;15;11
Chris
Oh it's definitely well, that's an optimistic place to end our show for the year 2026. 2025. You started it next already. And next year I'm ending it.
01;13;15;12 - 01;13;37;02
Aaron
I'm already in next year. Well, yeah. And thanks. You know, thanks to, Finkle here who helps steer the ship. I hope you guys enjoyed this year. You know, we'll definitely be back next year. Appreciate your time and hope everybody has a wonderful holiday and, and a new year, and that's necessary. You know, it's me, Chris and Derek.
01;13;37;02 - 01;13;51;26
Aaron
We're talking all things internet, digital assets, crypto, AI, internet culture and everything in between. Just a quick reminder that everything we say is not financial advice and does not represent, our employers in any way. Let's go y'all.
01;13;51;28 - 01;14;05;15
Chris
All right. Thanks, everyone. And big shout out to Finkle and our listeners. I hope you enjoyed this year. We'll be back for next one.
01;14;05;18 - 01;14;06;01
Chris
More.