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Technology's daily show (formerly the Technology Brothers Podcast). Streaming live on X and YouTube from 11 - 2 PM PST Monday - Friday. Available on X, Apple, Spotify, and YouTube.
You're watching TBPN.
Speaker 2:Today is Monday, 10/06/2025. We are live
Speaker 1:1999.
Speaker 2:1999. Is it January or is it December 1999? We don't know. We're gonna figure it out. We're live from the CB Pen Ultra Dump.
Speaker 2:The temple of technology, the forces of finance, the capital capital. Today is OpenAI's dev day. 1,500 people are attending. It's their biggest event ever. They're in Fort Mason.
Speaker 2:Sam Altman and Johnny Ive are gonna be given a fireside chat. That'll be fun. There's been rumors that the hardware device that they're building is delayed, but I kind of don't care. I read the Financial Times. We'll we'll dig into the Financial Times report, but you know, it's supposed to come out in 2026, might be pushed a little bit.
Speaker 2:I don't
Speaker 1:doubt about the leak made me want it.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Like, I don't doubt that they're gonna be able to ship a product. Like, it's Johnny Ive and Sam Altman.
Speaker 2:They're gonna be able to figure out how to manufacture something and sell something. My take was that there are two things that they need to solve that are way more important than, like, can they get a manufacturer to make it and ship it? Like, that's not the problem. The the first one is, will people adopt the form factor they pick? I the rumor's no screen, which has been tried before by startups with little success.
Speaker 2:And I remain pretty pilled on what the meta head of wearables told us about, like, these Lindy form factors, the watch, the tablet, computer, the notebook, the hat, the glasses. If you were selling me a smart hat, I might be more down. I mean, the chain, I I I guess, like, the Jesus piece, the smart Jesus piece could be, you know, you're you're building AI god. Why not create a talisman?
Speaker 1:Bigger and bigger chains for more compute.
Speaker 2:Compute. Something there. But the pin always felt a little odd, and it seems like it's harder to get people to swap over. But the biggest the the second thing that's, like, really crazy is there are just insane lock in effects that not even Johnny Ive can over when competing with Apple. We talked about this with Meta Ray Ban displays.
Speaker 2:You don't get iMessage notifications in Meta Ray Ban
Speaker 1:if you had personal super intelligence in this new device form factor. Factor.
Speaker 2:You're using a do meta buzzword, but this is also what And it
Speaker 1:same old device in the world except send messages on
Speaker 2:your text to wife. Yeah. Except for, like, checking on your kids or, like, text your buddy from college. Like, that is a serious, serious missing piece of any hardware device that is not gonna be integrated. IMessage has become so dominant.
Speaker 2:It's been remarkable.
Speaker 1:Well, in in a lot of it's social
Speaker 2:network, but now I do.
Speaker 1:One thing that we can take away from the humane AI pin is that and and again, the humane AI pin from my sense of the leaks around the Johnny Ive project is that it's not that different. It's it's it's more similar to the Humane AI pin Yeah. In my head right now than it is different.
Speaker 2:The Humane pin had that, like, screen that was, like, the projector. I think they're doing away with that entirely, going voice only. It's clear that, like, speech to text is good enough now that you could have a voice interface. I mean, I'm sure that they've seen in the analytics for the ChatGPT app. What's the latest data?
Speaker 2:800,000,000 weekly active users return?
Speaker 3:Was in the Dev Day presentation.
Speaker 2:And I think Jordy had a question for you about that. Is that good?
Speaker 1:I heard the number. I thought there's a lot of big numbers thrown around. Usually, they're in the billions these Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Kinda sandbagging, honestly. Yeah. Get to a billion, dude. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Come on. But getting that to actually reach a reach a point where people are, you know, using this with their iMessage. There's a bunch of interesting workarounds. Like, I could imagine the real prosumers, the real techy folks being like, yes. I I have a Mac at home that runs a piece of software that, like, screen scrapes and interacts and puppeteers all the Apple apps and sucks all the information out of that and puts it wherever I want.
Speaker 2:I don't think Apple's gonna take kindly to that. I think they're gonna throw up a bunch of barriers, and people are gonna be really, really sticky staying in their Apple ecosystem, at least for, like, a year or two until Apple can just catch up and kinda clone it back.
Speaker 1:I'm just not at all convinced that we need a new device Yep. For the current state of models. Yeah. When you think about But new new new devices are exciting. Yep.
Speaker 1:They Totally. They they're great for building hype. Yep. If you look at, you know, friend.com gets 10 times the amount of attention that it does if it was just a maybe even a website This
Speaker 2:is a good take.
Speaker 1:That was kind of an angry Yep. Friend. Yep. You know, you you're you they they get a lot of attention and excitement because you're you're you're getting into the conversation around net new platforms
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 1:And new hardware layers. But we've just seen with Humane, you can build you can build something that's built natively around AI, and it can be a very functional device. Yep. Right? Nobody was arguing with Humane that it wasn't like it didn't do like, it technically did what it said it was gonna do.
Speaker 1:Yeah. It's just what it does is not that useful
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:When you compare it to the cell phone that's already in everyone's pockets.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Or when you compare it to ramp.com. Time is money. Save both. You just use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, a whole lot more.
Speaker 2:All in one place. When are we going to get the hardware device from, I mean, is not technically a hardware company. You get the card. The card is hardware. It's a hardware company.
Speaker 2:The, yeah, the the the Humane device was a little rough. It just it it just feels like there's more opportunity than there is because of how slow Apple moves. But when you think about them partnering with Anthropic at some point and, yeah, you're not chatting with GPT five, but you're chatting with Claude. And you can do that on your AirPods, on your phone, and on your watch, and on your glasses. Like, it's just their game to lose, I feel like, in terms of hardware.
Speaker 2:Like, they'd really have to mess up to not eventually deliver something when Yeah. Because again,
Speaker 1:AirPods are like a 20 plus billion dollar revenue run rate product.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:It's good. Great for
Speaker 2:A lot of things. Exactly.
Speaker 1:Integrated and you can hear the outside world coming in. Yeah.
Speaker 2:I And just remember, like, when I was a kid, there was a little bit of like an arms race for, hardware devices. And Apple was behind on a lot of things. Like, they came out with the iPod, there was this company called the iRiver that was ahead of them on releasing features. So the the iPod had a a black and white screen, and this other company came out with essentially an iPod. It blew it out of the water on specs.
Speaker 2:It had a a color screen. You could watch movies on it. Had way more it was way cheaper. And Android has done that a lot where the Android phones have had more advanced features many, many times. But people are just
Speaker 1:locking in the iRiver
Speaker 2:iRiver. And
Speaker 1:looks like a vape. Yeah. This was some crazy hardware back in the
Speaker 2:It was great. It was great times.
Speaker 1:Did you see Soham Parikh was weighing in
Speaker 2:Yes. On On
Speaker 1:the Nvidia AMD deal. When Soham Parikh, the real Soham Parikh is weighing in on on some of these circular deals, it
Speaker 2:Is this the real account? This is real account. There were several knock off accounts. This is the real account?
Speaker 1:It just so happened that the real account was at realsohamparikh.
Speaker 2:Okay. Okay.
Speaker 1:He says, NVIDIA, Oracle, OpenAI, AMD, what a time to be alive. Certainly is. Yeah. Gotta get the update from him. How how is his life post Going exclusive.
Speaker 2:Going exclusive. Going exclusive. Yeah. We're having Doug O'Laughlin from Fabricated Knowledge on the show in a little bit. And one of my big questions is, like, how deep will this go?
Speaker 2:We've heard stories about Sam Altman doing deals, talking to TSMC. And I'm wondering, like, does this get to the point where he's talking about he's talking to ASML? He's talking to, like like, niche lithography machinery manufacturers about scaling up. Like, he start going trying to get the entire supply chain.
Speaker 1:He should start going around every company and saying, if you give me warrants, I'll announce a partnership. And yours and
Speaker 2:It seems to be working.
Speaker 1:Your stock will go up. On average, we've seen the the the market caps rise, you know, between 2030%. And I'd love to be able to do the same with you.
Speaker 2:People are into the OpenAI economy. They are truly propping it up. Well, if you're watching OpenAI Dev Day later, it's probably on Restream. Restream IO, one livestream, 30 plus destinations, multi stream to reach your audience wherever they are. Sign up for free.
Speaker 2:What else is in here? They're launching agent builder. Tyler, do you have an update on what they actually launched? I I wrote a take kind of based on the leaks and the and the previews, and I'd love to hear your feedback on my take. But what what what do we know so far?
Speaker 3:Yeah. So so they did it's already over. Okay. Or the main stream. Cool.
Speaker 3:And they
Speaker 1:there's, four Did you just say Tyler at TPPN says it's over.
Speaker 2:It's so over. I thought it I thought we were so bad.
Speaker 3:It's already over. No. No.
Speaker 2:We will get the
Speaker 3:We are we're so bad.
Speaker 2:We will get the we will get the timeline update from you in just a little bit, but give us the facts of what was launched and what the product is.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Okay. So so there were four four, like, main main kind of things. So the first one was, like, apps in Chateappity. Okay.
Speaker 3:So this was, like, they they showed Zillow. It's kind of just like a a little web view. Yeah. There was, a Figma thing where you can you can prompt Figma. It's almost kind of like a Figma make thing.
Speaker 3:Okay. But just just it's still on like chetchyptd.com.
Speaker 2:Yep. And it requires you to actually have an account there. And so, like like, the company that's partnering with them is like monetizing through their traditional path, but then they're using Chattypiti as, like, a front end.
Speaker 3:Yeah. And and they announced, like, soon it's gonna be, like, more open. There's only I think there was, like, maybe eight or 10 companies doing it right now. They're announcing, like, more ways that it it's gonna be monetized. Mhmm.
Speaker 3:And then they did there's, like, the agent builder. So this was the the leaked kind of video Yep. Where it's it's almost like a
Speaker 2:It's node based workflow?
Speaker 3:Yeah. It's almost like almost like a Zapier kind of Yep. Thing where it's just, like, a little bit more intelligent. Just there are still it's like, you know, if if statements Yep. Just like a
Speaker 2:single Is it Pron jobs too?
Speaker 3:I think so. Yeah.
Speaker 2:So so in theory, I could say, every day, check my email, create a digest, then go and do a deep research report on what's going on in the tech news and synthesize my inbox against the tech news to surface anything relevant. So if the CEO of AMD has emailed me and AMD's in the news, I definitely wanna get back to them immediately because we want Lisa on the show. Something like that.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 3:But Okay. I mean, it is there's a big difference between this and kind of what what people usually think of as like agents.
Speaker 2:Sure.
Speaker 3:Like when this is very different than what was the the thing they they launched a while ago?
Speaker 2:Well, have Operator. Yeah. They have Operator.
Speaker 3:Which is quite different from Opera.
Speaker 2:And then they have which has browser. And then they have agent mode.
Speaker 1:How many times have you used Operator in the last three months, Tyler?
Speaker 3:I don't I honestly, this is pretty bad, but I don't know if I ever used Operator.
Speaker 2:I used Operator a few times. It got kind of stuck on, like, CAPTCHAs and stuff the one time, but I have used agent mode more recently, and that's been it's kind of like deep research plus. Like, it can just go farther into websites. Like, if it if it it can go on to a website like Zillow or Redfin, and and it doesn't just need to be, like, blog posts and summary articles and PDFs. It feels like it can actually go to a website and then type in search results and get a whole bunch more data.
Speaker 2:It's it does seem like a better product, but it doesn't seem like it's having crazy takeoff in terms of adoption.
Speaker 3:Yeah. And then so the the the third thing was about Codex. Yep. So Codex was in recent preview. It's now like GA.
Speaker 3:Mhmm. I I don't think that there weren't a ton of like big updates there. And then the fourth thing was just like various APIs. So there's there's a Sora two API. It's 10¢ per second, which is, like, quite cheap.
Speaker 3:That's much cheaper than I thought it would be.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Wait. We we were debating this. Right? It was $3 per generation on v o three.
Speaker 2:Right?
Speaker 3:Yeah. Around that, that
Speaker 2:sounds right. Give you 3. So if you truly took advantage of your v o three account, allegedly, you you were basically breakeven for them. But no one did. Like, I would generate three, and then I would forget about it for a week, and then I'd come back and generate the max.
Speaker 2:But it seems like they did they did figure out how to optimize inference to some one order of magnitude, not two, which we were kind of speculating about.
Speaker 3:Yeah. And then there's Sohr two Pro, which
Speaker 2:They could be subsidizing it, though. We we we still have
Speaker 3:I'm sure it's still subsidized to some extent. But then there's SOAR two Pro, which is like thirty seconds.
Speaker 2:That's pretty good.
Speaker 3:No. 30¢ per second.
Speaker 2:Okay. And it's a little bit longer. Right? It can go from like eight seconds. It can go to like fifteen seconds or something in the region?
Speaker 3:Yeah. I think so.
Speaker 2:That's pretty cool.
Speaker 1:Is it worth reading into the AMD announcement happening the same day as Dev Day? You think it just had so much motion that it was just gonna get announced as soon as it was ready? Or do you think this
Speaker 2:I think there's, like, multiple tracks going on, and Sam's just pushing both, like, full tilt. Because last last week, there was, you know, the NVIDIA deal, the Oracle deal, the Broadcom deal. Like, all of those things were happening simultaneously with the launch of, like, GPT five, Sora, the app. The the the there was another announcement that they launched. Oh, the Pulse app, like, actual, like, ad inventory, agentic commerce.
Speaker 2:Like, there's just been a new release on the product side every day, and then there's also been a business deal every day. Like, we got the tender deal. Like, these things feel like they're, like, they're not able to time up one next to the other. It doesn't matter. They're just, like, all flowing really freely.
Speaker 2:Much like wallet infrastructure for every bank from Privy. Privy makes it easy to build on crypto rails securely, spin up white label wallets, sign transactions, integrate on chain infrastructure all through one simple API. So my my take, and I'd love both of your feedback, was that this feels like something that puts us in, like, the prosumer world of AI. So right now, I view AI as there's the consumer world, which is just you go to Chatuchipiti, you ask it how to make banana bread, it gives you a recipe. You are not expensing that.
Speaker 2:You're not underwriting that as some sort of like business value. You're just using it like Google search, knowledge retrieval. Maybe you're chatting with it as a friend or whatever. And that needs to be monetized with ads. That needs to be free over a long period of time.
Speaker 2:Then you have like enterprise software, the SaaSification of AI. The the the if you have a true business workflow that you are automating, you're probably working with LLMs at the API level, building software, and then potentially selling that software to other people. And so this looks like, you know, I I went to you know, like, Ramp got better at tagging receipts. And it's like, I didn't even notice. I'm not chatting with anything necessarily.
Speaker 2:It's just doing stuff behind the scenes because every company is integrating those. My my question is we've heard rumors of, like, getting to the $2,000 per month, bill for OpenAI features. Like, does this agent builder potentially get us there? Do we wind up in a world where, you know we've seen this before with, like, when Images and Chateappity launched, everyone generated, like, a few Studio Ghibli's, like, the day of. But then six months later, it's kind of bifurcated into consumers use it every once in a while as, like, a fun thing.
Speaker 2:But then there are professional people that are in it basically all day long as a workflow tool because they're a visual artist, and they need it as a canvas to pull from and then edit and create other stuff, or they're doing blog images, or they have a variety of reasons for using that product.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:And they use it in a professional workplace, basically. And and I'm wondering if if some of these agentic workflows will have serious inference costs because you you're wiring them up, and you're saying, like, go to GPT five Pro every single day and write up GPT five Pro query for every single, you know, news item on my to do list and then generate a sort of two video, what weave that in, and you wind up you wind up spending, like, $10 a day or or $50 a day and pretty quickly
Speaker 1:Great in the chat says, maybe you aren't expensing banana bread recipes, but I
Speaker 2:am. Let's go.
Speaker 1:Depends how elite the banana bread is. Sure. If you're a baker. Amazingly strategic asset.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. If you're a baker. And and so and so I wonder, like, we are getting to this point where some people are are thinking about their OpenAI use. You're underwriting it under some sort of loose business value.
Speaker 2:You might be expensing it. You're thinking more seriously about this. And I wonder if we'll get to basically consumption based pricing in, like, a prosumer type world based on these flows. We we we see that with the SOAR two stuff. Right now, it's all it's all balanced to be free, but you have a rate limit.
Speaker 2:I wonder if we'll see the agent builder, if you're really hitting this thing constantly, if they will start charging more for people. I think there's a little bit of, like, organ rejection from consumers where they're like, I I'm I'm much more comfortable just saying I'm paying $200 a month and maybe I'm using it not enough. Maybe I'm using it, but I want the all you can eat plan.
Speaker 1:Yeah. I guess my question for you, do you do you expect average consumer at any point to be building out a variety of workflows?
Speaker 2:No. No. So so I I see them as, like, two two like like, there's multiple markets. We've been for a while, we've been modeling OpenAI's businesses. Like, they have a consumer product that they're going to try and drive to essentially free Yeah.
Speaker 2:With ads. And you will have a ton of features, and they will try and deliver you a ton of value. So Sora, the the generations are free. You can't pay for anything more in the app.
Speaker 3:Also, the apps they launched today, those are very much like consumer
Speaker 2:Exactly. And but but they'll take a cut on the back end. And so they will monetize very heavily on the consumer side. And then you also have, like, your hyperscaler cloud platform, your API business that is pure consumption based selling the API, selling the LLM. But I'm but I'm wondering if we will if we will see the development of, like, something in the middle, something prosumer, something consumption based pop up.
Speaker 2:Now there is
Speaker 1:the Yeah. The to be clear, it's this company, n eight n Mhmm. Which we haven't really followed closely.
Speaker 2:We should have the founder on.
Speaker 1:But they have seen a ton of growth. Yep. They've seen this organic kind of always a good sign when people are selling kind of like courses around how to build a business based around your software This was Shopify in the early days. And so a lot of Whoop. The posts this morning are saying OpenAI just killed
Speaker 2:n eight n.
Speaker 1:How do you say this actually, Tyler?
Speaker 2:Is it Nathan?
Speaker 3:Yeah. I I don't know. I I usually I just when I read it, I just think n eight n.
Speaker 2:N eight n?
Speaker 1:Yep. Yeah. So may have just proven to proven myself to be a boomer if I'm mispronouncing it. But n eight n eight n. We'll see.
Speaker 1:I don't I don't think these my framework for OpenAI now is that I just view them as a large tech company. And so every VC and every founder should be asking like, what if OpenAI does this? Yes. And even if they do decide to do it, it doesn't mean that you're cooked.
Speaker 2:Totally. Because
Speaker 1:for a lot of reasons. How many how many products have big, you know, how many products has Google launched or or or Meta launched that looked like they were a credible threat to various businesses and then ultimately didn't really go anywhere. So I'm I'm sure that OpenAI is taking agent builders seriously. I'm not sure that it'll be a real threat to Zapier or N8N or or anyone else.
Speaker 2:Yeah. There's a great internal tech email from 2010 explaining what competition between Facebook and Google looked like at the time. So the abridged history of Google and Facebook sometime in the 2007, so this is just like two years after Facebook launched, Larry Page stopped talking to Mark Zuckerberg. This was following an eight month period in which Facebook launched News Feed, opened registration to everyone, and launched platform where you could log in with Facebook across the web. So almost instantly, Facebook was competing with Google for talent, for developer mindshare, and for tech blog cred, kind of like with the precursor teapot, I suppose.
Speaker 2:They began to worry about their ability to enter new markets with us in the game, with Facebook in the game, and about core investments that weren't doing well and that Facebook was positioned to touch. Checkout, Local, or Kooch, which is their social network, which is now defunct, I believe. They worried about entrenched products that
Speaker 1:What was it called?
Speaker 2:Orkut, o r k u t, which I think was a Brazilian company that they acquired. Like Tyler. Use the or something like that. I like that. Put a little fly
Speaker 1:on We look over at Tyler like he's supposed to be stuck
Speaker 2:Figure it out.
Speaker 1:Pronunciation expert at But 19.
Speaker 2:But, yeah, Google was worried about Meta challenging them in entrenched products that Facebook might one day launch, Calendar, Picasa, which was their photos product, YouTube, Blogger, Reader, News, and about the Comscore data telling them that the social networks are bigger than email. Story, Facebook had the world's people while Google only had their cookies. So we were better positioned even to own search and ads one day. Oh my. So far, we haven't seen real the real competition.
Speaker 2:And so what's interesting is that, it was not a total steamroll by the Meta Facebook team. It was also not a total, steamroll by Google. Like, Google, I would say, did very well in calendar. They Facebook has not
Speaker 1:They really became big calendar.
Speaker 2:They did. YouTube did very well. Reader, of course, they they they canned. Blogger went away. News is still there in search, but I think most people get their news from social networks these days.
Speaker 2:Picasa, I was talking to Brandon about this, photos has kind of most people have moved over to just Instagram. Their Instagram page is their main photo album. People do organize photos, but a lot of people do that in Apple. And so there's been a bunch of places where Facebook won. There's been other places where Google was able to hold on.
Speaker 2:And so I would imagine that the same thing happens where OpenAI challenges the legacy tech companies across the board, And and they win some of those, but not all of them.
Speaker 1:Yep. My question is, does releasing Sora two via API hurt the chances that Sora as a stand alone app actually becomes a social network and a consumption platform Yep. Because the model is clearly great. It does a really good job at making video look like it was shot on a cell phone. Right?
Speaker 1:V o three, very cinematic. Saw this. It it looks like a Hollywood blockbuster.
Speaker 2:It looks like daytime TV, but yes.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Sure. Sure. But it looks like it was shot by Yeah. Legacy Hollywood.
Speaker 1:Totally. And Sora two looks like, you know, you're hanging out at the office and you're shooting a video. Yep. Right? Something like that.
Speaker 1:And so that model, which until today, they had exclusive access to, can now be leveraged by any video creation platform and there's tons of them. So whether you were Adobe, right Yep. You could get access to Sora two or some entry level startup.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 1:Right? And so what that means is there's just gonna be a lot more of this kind of content being created all around the Internet Mhmm. Not in Sora the app. Yep. And in my view, that signals to me that they don't really feel like they have a a a strong opportunity to make Sora a place where a a place where content is consumed.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 1:Right? I see them seeing this as a creative tool because if you were like, hey, there's a 30% chance we're gonna make a new, like, video massive video consumption platform, wouldn't you wanna give it every possible chance to be successful? You wouldn't wanna let all your enemies have access to this tool. Right? You'd give yourself every possible edge.
Speaker 1:I think I think you would.
Speaker 2:I agree with a lot of that. I have a rebuttal, but first, I'm gonna tell you about Cognition. They're the makers of Devon. Devon is the AI software engineer. Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team.
Speaker 2:So, yes, Ben Thompson has always had this good take that, why does OpenAI have an API at all? You don't want your GPUs on fire when you have the best consumer AI app. Just make sure that ChatGPT never goes down, that the maximum amount of GPUs are on ChatGPT so everyone has the greatest experience there, and they never even think to try another, consumer chat app and just let other companies compete in the API space. You're kind of arguing the same idea for Sora. What's also interesting is that I noticed that when I was using Sora, I would generate stuff, but I wouldn't post it.
Speaker 2:I felt like, I wanted to see it, and then I was like, it's not quite right, or I don't feel comfortable sharing that, or maybe I'll download or screen record it or something. Whereas I feel like in the early days of Instagram, people would definitely go to Instagram as like, I wanna I wanna filter my photos. I wanna make my photos look better. And then they but they would always post. And I bet you that the creation to post ratio is way lower with Sora than it was in the early days of Instagram.
Speaker 2:I feel like if people went into Instagram and they were like, I wanna add, you know, a high contrast X Pro two filter, like, 99% of the time, they would just click like, yep, share it, and then I'll download it and put it on Twitter as well or something. But they would almost always share it. And so Instagram was incredibly valuable for bootstrapping that network because everything was shared to the network by default. And I feel like on Sora, people are much more hesitant to actually click, okay. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Let's post. I don't know. What do think?
Speaker 1:I don't know. I think that by the time Instagram actually became a place that a lot of your friends were, people were less like people became more serious about, oh, should I post this? I don't know if my I don't know if my followers will like this. I'm not gonna post it.
Speaker 2:But would they do that with but would they filter it and then Possibly. And then just save it and share it somewhere else? I I never experienced that personally. It was like if I'm going in there maybe I don't post it at all, but I'm not just using it as like a creation tool for something else.
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 2:Like, there were there were apps. There was a company called Aviary that was an API for photo filtering that would go into other apps. They eventually sold to Adobe, I believe. And there were a few different yeah. We talked to we talked to somebody about this.
Speaker 2:The the the there were, like, those API level companies that offered the same functionality as as Instagram but didn't bootstrap the social network on the back of it. And Hipstomatic was another one where it had the it had technically, I think, better photo filtering. Like, people liked the look of the photos more. But Hipstomatic, Aviary, these companies didn't bootstrap a social network on the back, And so they wound up being valued like, you know, medium sized SaaS companies as opposed to social networks, and they've never really compounded, compounded, compounded. So I I agree that it's a little odd to not force everything that's generated in Soora to just automatically be shared on Soora on the app.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Because it feels like if you can just continually have every Soora generation in the feed, you can rank those. Like, you can have a very powerful
Speaker 1:Have a catalog of content that Totally. Like, and it also feeds your Yeah. It feeds it it's gonna continuously help you make the model better.
Speaker 2:Right? I also wonder if they'd open it up to human generated content. Like, why not?
Speaker 1:I don't think that OpenAI needs another front in the war. Right? It's hard enough competing. It's hard enough competing with Google. Right?
Speaker 1:You clearly to compete with Google Yeah. You have to do a number of just absolutely heinous deals. Right? You gotta be doing deals with Broadcom. Yep.
Speaker 1:You gotta be doing deals with Oracle. You gotta be doing deals with AMD. You gotta just be doing these deals that are pretty unprecedented at least for the for the in the in the modern era. So Yeah. They don't need to open a new front in my view.
Speaker 2:I do feel like the it's just a new angle on the creativity. If you could have Sora but with, like, a cap cut style or edit style video editing that goes into it. So you could have like, if you just wanna maximize for, like, the maximum amount of creativity, being able to inject an actual screen recording of a movie clip and then a Sora clip and then and then your actual video that you recorded and then bring in some more Sora. Like, editing all that together, it's just gonna be better content.
Speaker 1:We need to talk about how tea dating advice is still top five
Speaker 2:No way.
Speaker 1:Free app on the app store.
Speaker 2:Even after the hack, it's still ripping?
Speaker 1:It's TikTok. It's above Google. It's above x. It's above WhatsApp.
Speaker 2:I thought Sora and
Speaker 1:It's above Instagram. Thought Sora
Speaker 2:and ChatGPT were the only
Speaker 1:one number two. First time downloads. But yeah. Sora is number one. But I'm just saying if you look at the top five, it's Sora, ChatGPT, Gemini, Threads,
Speaker 2:and And then tea?
Speaker 1:Shout out to Connor Hayes for getting Threads back in the top five.
Speaker 2:We love it. We love it. Also, shout out to Dylan Field over at Figma doing a deal with OpenAI, getting the shout out in dev day. Think bigger, build faster. Figma helps design development teams build great products together You can get started for free.
Speaker 2:We did, Tyler, do you understand this this this post from Leo who says new image model is just GPT image one mini LMAO. It's so over on the API
Speaker 1:docs. What is going
Speaker 3:on here? So I I think it was like one of those cases where someone just found like the link to the PNG Okay. That's like hosted on the site and like it it's not released yet. Okay. So I don't there's like no information about this at all.
Speaker 3:They didn't talk about it at dev day.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 3:I'm sure. So Yeah. Yeah. This is kind of
Speaker 2:I I don't really know that people are being comped to this. Like, it feels like most of the excitement about the about the agent mode or agent builder is like images would be like a small piece of that. Because, yes, every once in while in an agentic workflow, you'd wanna generate an image. But I I I do wonder how open it will be. Like, would would it be possible within the agent builder to vend in a different LLM?
Speaker 2:Like, they going to be model agnostic at some point? Like, from a true model builder, you would you might want to be able to, like, call Claude code over here and then and then use, you know, some other image generator. You wanna get a mid journey image over here. You wanna go over there, pull pull different things together.
Speaker 3:Yeah. I mean, I I feel like you kind of have to because otherwise, it's like then as a consumer, I'm just gonna go use N8N or
Speaker 2:Something that's on top of all of them.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Because if I'm just being limited, then why would I why use it?
Speaker 1:So
Speaker 2:Yeah. Well, High Yield Harry is not happy with all the deals that are happening. He posted on September 22 explaining the NVIDIA and OpenAI deal to our analysts. And it's the the the screen cap from, what is that, detective movie? Detective?
Speaker 2:HBO? True detective. True detective. And he's getting getting hammered. And now he says, I'm entering my Michael Burry era.
Speaker 2:These deal structures are .com bubble things. Keep dancing now, but come on, guys. Be real about what's going to happen here. There's a lot of people that are not happy with how crazy these deals are. Sven and Rick
Speaker 1:Since nobody is saying it, Sven will. It says, we're witnessing the largest and most concentrated instant market cap expansions in history with no proven future revenue cost earnings model to back up the investments or the valuations the market is running on an incredible amount of blind faith. Let's give it up for blind faith.
Speaker 2:There's not How lot for
Speaker 1:it ends TBD. One certainty though, when it eventually does blow up, everyone will be asking the Fed to come to the rescue again. Yeah. Too big to fight. The only thing I would push back on is like a lot of a lot of people it it's
Speaker 2:it's it's contrarian. It's contrarian. Everyone's saying it.
Speaker 1:It's contrarian actually at this point to say, like, no. This is good and healthy and natural.
Speaker 2:No. No. No. Like, the the the people that are still super AGI pilled stoop just like super beating the drum of like the value is there. Look at the revenue growth.
Speaker 2:All this stuff is real. It's it merits the build out because we're gonna see 10 x gains again and again and again. Yeah.
Speaker 1:Let's up this video of let's pull up who's the at the x game, Stephen Hawking at the x game. Should we pull up
Speaker 2:Can we pull up Stephen Hawking at the x game? Oh, you guys you guys haven't pulled up
Speaker 1:already. You. If you watch this video and and and then say to me, I don't think Sam Trilli Sam
Speaker 2:Sam Trillions. I
Speaker 1:don't think Sam Altman should get another trillion. I don't
Speaker 2:know what to tell you. This so sick.
Speaker 1:Wow. That's perfect.
Speaker 2:No. Oh, no. The physics. Tyler over there, this is gonna be critical to building humanoid robotics. This is a physics simulator.
Speaker 2:This is a world model. The crowd is losing It, like the the physics don't make sense there. Like, that's not how that would happen.
Speaker 3:The next iteration, I swear, Sora three, it's gonna, yeah, just scale up a little bit more, bro, please.
Speaker 2:Oh, yeah. On Friday, we posted,
Speaker 1:yeah. We posted another 5,000,000,000,000, please.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. We posted an example of a a video that we shot versus then I had Tyler try and recreate it with Sora and the other video models. And and Tyler kept texting me like, dude, just one more prompt. Like, I I I'm so close.
Speaker 2:I can get it there. And it was like, no. I'm very close.
Speaker 1:And the hand.
Speaker 2:The hands were very creepy. Your your naked foot snuck in somehow.
Speaker 3:Yeah. The one I don't know what the training game was.
Speaker 2:It was odd. Ugh. Yeah. Lots of weird stuff. It it it seems like it's very good for like, again, we're in that, like, style transfer.
Speaker 2:It works well when it's like there's a ton of footage of police body cams, and then there's a ton of footage of SpongeBob. And you put SpongeBob in the police body cam, and it knows how to mash those two up. But if you come to it with just some completely new idea that it doesn't have a lot of training data on, you're gonna be fighting the prompt for a long, long time. Now those mashups are valuable. Like, they get views.
Speaker 2:People find them enjoyable. And there are some that are very funny, but it is it is a challenge to create anything that's, like, kind of novel or new. But, you know Well there's still a lot of room.
Speaker 1:Sachi Mishal says, this OpenAI AMD deal feels like a jump the shark moment. The deal structure is just so stupidly unbelievable. Well, I'll tell you something believable. If I was walking around a farmer's market, John
Speaker 2:Mhmm.
Speaker 1:And I walk by a stand and I think, I don't really like what this guy's got. I don't really want it. But then I think to myself, what could what could I do in this moment to make purchasing some of these vegetables interesting to me? And so I go to the farmer and I say, how about you give me 30% of your business, and I'll buy some of your vegetables? And I actually should get more equity value in your business than I need to pay for the vegetables.
Speaker 2:What did what did
Speaker 1:that actually say? That seems like a deal that might get done. And to me, that feels a little bit like what we're seeing here today with, OpenAI and AMD.
Speaker 2:Yeah. What did what did I actually say? Oh, I here. You you you were saying, like like, did I call the did I call these, like, circular deals efficient? They're more efficient or something like that.
Speaker 2:I said I said lots of people are throwing up red flags about these. This was on September twenty third. High growth companies have been paying for things with equity, in this case, chips, forever, most commonly with talent, but occasionally with other counterparties. The open question is that couldn't this deal be more arm's length pretty easily? NVIDIA's biggest shareholders are Vanguard, BlackRock, Fidelity, and State Street.
Speaker 2:There's a world where NVIDIA takes the cash it has on hand, pays a dividend, and then those investors take their money and invest in OpenAI. That would be the natural flow of capital in normal times, but NVIDIA thinks there are benefits to inking a longer term partnership. OpenAI looks highly likely to join the ranks of the hyperscalers, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are all working on AI chips that could cut NVIDIA out of the equation equation long term. So NVIDIA gets a fantastic long term partner with OpenAI who will be committed to buying an accelerated schedule of AI accelerator purchases. And OpenAI gets a deep partnership with arguably the best CPU GPU design team in history.
Speaker 2:And so there it's interesting that, like, the the NVIDIA deal, the read on the NVIDIA deal was like, oh, this is this is NVIDIA finding, like, its true long term dance partner where in a in a world where Google is going TPU, Microsoft is gonna do their own thing, Amazon's doing their own thing in ships, cutting out NVIDIA. There's, like, some real risks to NVIDIA long term potentially. And so and so NVIDIA is like locking up a partnership with OpenAI. Then OpenAI is going around and being like, but we're also gonna
Speaker 1:I think one thing that everyone's learning about Sam is you never really locked down Sam. Right? Yeah. You had you had obviously, Satya and Sam were dancing. They're still dancing, you know, through through the existing partnership that they have.
Speaker 1:But Yeah. Certainly, Sam is willing to go find the incremental partner. And it's interesting that the AMD and NVIDIA deals just happen so closely together.
Speaker 2:Right? Yeah.
Speaker 1:And and NVIDIA felt crazy. AMD feels crazier just because, again, it's not like Yep. These are Sam's first picks Yep. For GPUs. Right?
Speaker 2:Yep. Well, you can't lock down Sam, but you can lock down your compliance with Vanta. Automate compliance, manage risk, and free trust continuously. Vanta's trust management platform takes the manual work of your security and compliance process and replaces it with continuous automation.
Speaker 1:Let's go.
Speaker 2:We should read through the actual deal of the OpenAI AMD reporting in the
Speaker 1:Are you saying we should get into the facts?
Speaker 2:We should get into the facts. The five year agreement, it will challenge NVIDIA's market dominance as OpenAI plans deployment of AMD's new m I four fifty chips. And the announcement from Sam mentioned NVIDIA more than AMD, which some people are reading into. Like, maybe you wanna keep NVIDIA happy. The big question for me is, is there an OpenAI Intel deal coming at some point?
Speaker 2:Because Intel's been looking for a buyer, been looking for a reason to spin up the new fab in America.
Speaker 1:Sam needs to figure out some way. You know, the deal that I could imagine is Trump makes an investment in OpenAI. OpenAI then has to spend off off of Uncle Sam's balance sheet. Yep. OpenAI then has to spend some amount of that on with Intel.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I wouldn't be surprised
Speaker 1:to see figures out a way to get some warrants in Intel too.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I mean, there's certainly a lot of energy around, like like, there are like, the United States government is pushing Intel. There's a desire to reshor manufacturing, reshor chip manufacturing. And if you can be part of that story, you should be a beneficiary. You should win points, score points in in Washington.
Speaker 2:And so doing something there, I wouldn't be surprised if we see it in the next couple weeks. It just feels like Sam is really knocking down partnerships with every major counterparty, and so why not Intel as well? Well, the Walter Journal has the story. OpenAI and chip designer advanced micro devices. They don't name companies like that anymore.
Speaker 1:I don't know how to.
Speaker 2:AMD announced a multibillion dollar partnership to collaborate on AI data centers that will run on AMD processors, one of the most direct challenges yet to industry leader NVIDIA. Under the terms of the deal, OpenAI committed to purchasing six gigawatts worth of AMD chips.
Speaker 1:It is it is cool that we're now just
Speaker 2:Yes.
Speaker 1:Referring to GPU orders based on their energy demands.
Speaker 2:It's pretty sick. Starting with the MI four fifty chip next year, the chat GPT maker will buy the chips either directly or through its cloud computing partners. So it could go through Oracle. That's I mean, it's not that crazy.
Speaker 1:Well, it is. It is. It is if if if it's not actually OpenAI putting up. Does this does this mean that OpenAI doesn't have to if if one of their they can be like,
Speaker 2:well, might not live on their balance
Speaker 3:sheet. Exactly.
Speaker 2:Because they might go to a Neo Cloud or they might go to Oracle, and they might say, you own the data center, and we will set up a contract to lease against that because we want to model this business as OpEx because we are we are a software company on top of the hardware. Yeah. It's not the craziest thing. It doesn't I mean, there's plenty of big tech companies. I believe Netflix, Snapchat, there's a whole bunch that are, like, built on top of other cloud platforms.
Speaker 2:But they have such large contracts that Google can say, oh, well, like, you're gonna be with us for a decade. You're gonna be spending hundreds of millions of dollars. We're gonna go build a new data center for and we're gonna own that CapEx because we're super huge and liquid. We can afford this. So, AMD chief Lisa Su said in an interview on Sunday that the deal will result in tens of billions of dollars in new revenue for the chip company over the next half decade.
Speaker 2:The two companies didn't disclose the plan's overall expected cost, but AMD said it costs tens of billions of dollars per gigawatt of computing capacity. So we're looking at almost a $100,000,000,000 deal, which is probably why the market cap popped by, a commensurate amount. OpenAI will receive warrants for up to a 160,000,000 AMD shares, roughly 10% of the chip company at 1¢ per share awarded in phases if OpenAI hits certain milestones for deployment. AMD's stock price is also in also has to increase for the warrants to be exercised. The shares opened 33% higher Monday morning.
Speaker 2:The deal is AMD's biggest win in its quest to disrupt NVIDIA's dominance among AI semiconductor companies. AMD processors are widely used for gaming in personal computers and in traditional data center servers, but it hasn't made much of a dent in the fast growing market for the pricier supercomputing chips needed by advanced AI systems. Quickly, let me tell you about Graphite code review for the age of AI. Graphite helps teams like GitHub ship higher quality software faster.
Speaker 1:There are billboards going viral again today.
Speaker 2:It is? Just
Speaker 1:the exact same post again. I think this time it was like, I'm in San Francisco. I hate it here.
Speaker 2:Oh, really? It's like, Niagara, but it's still going viral.
Speaker 1:We love it there.
Speaker 2:Well, if you wanna run a billboard campaign, get on adquick.com. Out of home advertising media is easy and measurable. Say goodbye to the headaches of out of home advertising. Only ad quick combines technology, out of home expertise, and data to enable seamless ad buying across the globe. Well, AMD plans to use the chips for or or OpenAI plans to use the AMD chips for inference functions or the computations that allow AI applications such as chatbots to respond to user queries.
Speaker 2:Maybe that's easier for them to deal with. They train on NVIDIA, but then inference on AMD. Maybe there's something there. I mean, the models are so stable. There was a new, like, indication or kind of, like, leak that GPT five is still running on the four pretrained.
Speaker 2:So the that there will at some point be a new, like, huge pretrained. The four five was supposed to be that. It they haven't really done that yet. But there's there's a world where, like, GPT four, that pretrained model I mean, I'm sure they've done other things to it. But, like, generally, that is, like, mature enough that if you can just go and optimize it and ship it off to different chips, maybe it runs fast.
Speaker 2:Maybe it's a huge lift to to get it out of the CUDA ecosystem and over to AMD. But certainly, AMD wants to make it happen, and OpenAI wants to make it happen.
Speaker 1:So Maybe Codex can do it.
Speaker 2:Maybe Codex can do it. We don't know. I I think that it's like it it could be it could be like a $100,000,000 project to, like, replatform it, but it's totally worth it when you're running inference for 800,000,000 weekly active users. So I don't know. It's hard to overstate how difficult it's become to get enough computing power, Altman said.
Speaker 2:We want it super fast, but it takes some time. The two CEOs of the deal will tie their companies together and give them incentives to commit to the AI infrastructure. Boom. It's a win for both of our companies. And I'm glad that OpenAI's incentives are tied to AMD's success and vice versa.
Speaker 2:He's such a good investment banker. Get him in get him on Wall Street. NVIDIA remains the preferred chip supplier among AI companies, but it's also facing competition from almost every corner of the mark market. Cloud giants such as Google and Amazon design and sell their own chips. OpenAI recently signed a $100,000,000,000 deal with Broadcom to build its own in house chip.
Speaker 1:No. 10,000,000,000.
Speaker 2:10,000,000,000. Yeah. $10,000,000,000 deal with Broadcom.
Speaker 1:Easy to add an extra zero these days, but we got a we got
Speaker 2:Well, if you wanna manage your zeros properly, get on julius.ai. What analysis do you wanna run? Chat with your data and get expert level insights. It's the AI data analyst that works for you, and it's more reliable than me when it comes to getting the numbers right.
Speaker 1:And apparently, copilot in Excel. We saw that we saw that post earlier Oh, yeah. Somebody using Copilot and Excel to add a handful of numbers.
Speaker 2:One, two, and three, specifically.
Speaker 1:What what did
Speaker 2:Pilot and What's one plus two plus three? Sum those numbers.
Speaker 3:Let me think.
Speaker 2:Well, Copilot said 15.
Speaker 1:Yeah. So just try to get that close if you can.
Speaker 2:As long as you're with as long as you're numbers, you
Speaker 1:just gotta get close.
Speaker 2:What do think it is?
Speaker 3:I'm going with six.
Speaker 2:Let's go. Nailed it. Intelligence Wow. Repeated.
Speaker 1:Underrated. Underrated. Poor man.
Speaker 2:How you doing in the chat? Good to see you. Good day.
Speaker 1:Great to see you.
Speaker 2:OpenAI is gonna begin with one gigawatt worth of MI $4.50 chips starting in the second half of next year to run its AI models. That's a lot
Speaker 1:of chips. Chips in the bag.
Speaker 2:That's we are just throwing around gigawatts now.
Speaker 1:I do I really want to help out
Speaker 2:how this goes.
Speaker 1:We gotta we gotta ask Doug. He's joining in ten minutes. Yeah. What kind of deals Sam is gonna start doing on the energy side.
Speaker 3:I was
Speaker 2:asking him about that.
Speaker 1:Because he has his His nuclear plant company, in the Oklo.
Speaker 2:He also has a new a he has a fission company, Oklo, then he has a fusion company. What's that one called? It's the
Speaker 1:Yeah. OKLA is only up, like, 550% in the past six months.
Speaker 2:Just wait until they ink a $100,000,000,000 deal with OpenAI. Like, it could happen. I mean, like, it's one of those things where it's like, if if if they build that energy, OpenAI would buy it. So it it's it's it makes sense. These are all just like, sort of like mutual agreements to jump across the threshold together if
Speaker 1:Mutual agreement to jump sharks.
Speaker 2:Yeah. To jump sharks. I don't know. I don't know. I it's it's it's dangerous to be, to be bearish prematurely.
Speaker 2:Like like, you you never know how big these things can get. Like, could you could continue to run. We could be we could be stuck in in January 1999 for the next five years for all we know.
Speaker 1:Yeah. You never know.
Speaker 2:In late September, NVIDIA announced that it would invest a 100,000,000,000 in OpenAI over the next decade. Under the terms of the circular arrangement, OpenAI plans to use the cash from NVIDIA to buy NVIDIA chips and deploy up to 10 gigawatts of computing power in AI data centers. The deal highlighted how the market's seemingly endless enthusiasm for NVIDIA stock is providing a financial backstop for the entire AI market. The NVIDIA deal isn't completed. The two companies have signed a letter of intent and have yet to disclose specific terms in a regulatory filing.
Speaker 2:Wow. What what a time to be alive. OpenAI and AMD described Monday's announcement as definitive and plan to immediately file details with security regulators. Sue told investors in a call Monday morning that the deal was a clear validation of our technology road map that would give AMD tens of billions of dollars of revenue by 2027. When asked We
Speaker 1:just have to give structure Super pretty early. A lot of revenue.
Speaker 2:I wouldn't say it came lightly.
Speaker 1:We just have to give a huge amount of the company away Yeah. In order to capture that that revenue. Revenue.
Speaker 2:Yeah. How what's the headline number here? It's a 100,000,000,010 billion to Broadcom, a 100,000,000,000 to NVIDIA, and 300,000,000,000 to Oracle.
Speaker 1:20,000,000,000 ish to CoreWeave as well.
Speaker 2:Wait. So, Tyler, they're saying six six billion giga or six gigawatts not billion gigawatt. Six gigawatts of AMD chips. Can you estimate the dollar value of that if it's m I 40 $4.50 equivalents?
Speaker 3:I think I I think on on the invest like the best with Don't Tell, he said it's like around 50,000,000,000 per gigawatt.
Speaker 2:50,000,000,000 per gigawatt?
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Wait. So this is Wait. No. No. No.
Speaker 2:$400,000,000,000 deal?
Speaker 3:I think, wait, that's totally wrong.
Speaker 2:Okay. Okay. Yeah. I I I I wanna know, like, like, what is the energy use of a single m I four fifty and then divide that by six gigawatts to get me, like, how many chips are they gonna buy? And then what's the price of the chip?
Speaker 2:So multiply that. That's what I wanna know. In the meantime, let me tell you about Fall, the generative media platform for developers. The world's best generative image, video, and audio models all in one place, develop and fine tune with serverless GPUs and on demand clusters.
Speaker 1:Let's go.
Speaker 2:There's so much in this. Are we Should
Speaker 3:we get
Speaker 1:into this XAI coverage?
Speaker 2:Yes. Sure. Elon Musk gambles billions in Memphis to catch up on AI. I don't know why this is a story. It's mere billions.
Speaker 2:If we're not in the
Speaker 1:hundreds of
Speaker 2:billions, like, what are we doing? This is pennies.
Speaker 1:Pick it up pennies. The Journal has reporting, x AI aims to win tech arms race with Colossus data centers thrown up at lightning speed. City is divided over massive power and water demands. For Elon Musk, ground zero of the AI arms race is a 114 acre tract of grass and swamp on the state line of Tennessee and Mississippi. This one this one sleepy plot of land filled with groves of water rooted Tupelo trees at its western edge is now part of a growing empire Musk is accumulating in the Deep South, just a few miles from Elvis Presley's homestead at Graceland.
Speaker 1:Nice. Labor crews hired by Musk x AI were excavating power equipment on the site, a defunct energy plant just over the state line in Mississippi, and preparing to build a new plant capable of generating over a gigawatt of electricity enough to power around 800,000 homes. Engineering permits show that Musk plans to route transmission lines that will connect the new power plant to a million square foot data center that is also under development just north of the border in Tennessee. Memphis is the frontline of Musk's costly foray into the AI wars. His AI company, xAI, has already built one massive data center here in the Bluff City that it calls the world's largest supercomputer.
Speaker 1:That facility, called Colossus, houses over 200,000 NVIDIA chips and powers the technology behind the AI chatbot, Rock. Now, Musk is close to finishing the second facility, which will be even bigger. He calls it Colossus two. The AI arms race is shaping up as the most expensive corporate battle of the twenty first century. Let's give it up for expensive corporate battles.
Speaker 1:Can I get the the horn, Nick, please? With the belief that the first to the finish line will dominate the market making speed crucial. Money also makes a difference. The more cutting edge chips companies have, the smarter their models are. But at this stage, it's unclear if or when the enormous investments will pay off.
Speaker 1:Technology companies that are splashing out to hire AI talent are writing even bigger checks to build the infrastructure needed to power cutting edge AI models. Morgan Stanley estimates companies will spend over 3,000,000,000,000 on AI infrastructure through 2028. What do you got, John?
Speaker 2:I have a I have a more recent benchmark for all of the different AI models to let you know where Grok sits relative to the other frontier models. ChatGPT five Pro.
Speaker 3:ViralBench?
Speaker 2:Yeah. ViralBench. Claude Sonnet 4.5, the latest and greatest. Gemini 2.5 Pro, and, of course, Grok expert mode. So I will read you.
Speaker 2:My prompt for all four of these models was write an x post that gets me over a thousand likes. My account is at john kugan. And chat g p t five pro said, NVIDIA isn't a chip company. It's supply chain choreography. The scarce assets now?
Speaker 2:HBM, advanced packaging, power, and high bandwidth networking. If your AI thesis ignores those, you're playing checkers on a Go board. Not bad.
Speaker 1:I think I think you get like 40 lights
Speaker 2:on that. Okay. Claude Sonnet 4.5 says everyone's focused on which AI lab will win AGI. The real question, who wins the infrastructure layer? NVIDIA is printing money now, but the company that figures out inference at scale will be worth more than all the model companies combined,
Speaker 3:which is hilarious. Hot
Speaker 2:It's kind of a hot take that's anti anthropic, I suppose. Who knows? Maybe they're working on this. Gemini 2.5 Pro says, the biggest hurdle isn't starting. It's, the the biggest hurdle to starting isn't the idea.
Speaker 2:It's not the capital. It's not the competition. It's the unshakable fear of looking stupid for the first six months. So that's what, Gemini 2.5 Pro thinks is a banger. And then we have Grok expert.
Speaker 2:And this remember, this model was trained on x data. It should know what works. It knows. It has the entire corpus of every tweet, every post on x, and here's what it said, would go viral and get over a thousand likes. It says this is from my account at John Coogan.
Speaker 2:October hits, and suddenly I'm craving pumpkin everything, binge watching horror movies, and planning the ultimate costume. Who's with me on turning this month into pure spooky magic? Drop your fave Halloween ideas below. Hashtag spooky season. Hashtag Halloween twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2:Hashtag October vibes with three emojis. And I think we know who wins. Like, Grok is clearly funny.
Speaker 1:Genuinely hilarious. It's genuinely think it knows.
Speaker 2:It's it's it's self aware.
Speaker 1:It's totally self aware. Yes. Knows that this is it knows that it might not be able to create the perfect zinger Yeah. But it knows it can do such a throwback that we will find it absolutely Yes.
Speaker 3:Like if I have Like post one of
Speaker 1:John Cena would post in like 02/2011.
Speaker 2:Totally. Totally. And so if I had to post one of those, I would definitely go with the Grok post because it's hilarious.
Speaker 1:Post it. People would
Speaker 2:be laughing.
Speaker 1:You never posted the the
Speaker 2:I didn't post the other one about losing
Speaker 3:You should just post all four and then see which like, actually do the benchmark.
Speaker 2:I should. I should. I I I will. Maybe I'll maybe I'll prompt it again and then and then and then do it again. But the pure spooky magic goes pretty hard.
Speaker 2:I like it. I think it's worth $10,000,000,000,000 in CapEx to get these bangers.
Speaker 1:All right. Well, I want to ask Doug about what xAI has to do to actually get back in the game.
Speaker 2:I want ask them what AI is. What is this AI?
Speaker 1:Well, Colossus and Colossus two are incredible feats of engineering. Yeah. Yet the
Speaker 2:And what's the asset value? I I I do wonder, like, it seems like if if they don't get product market fit on the consumer layer, is there a world where Colossus two is just an incredibly valuable asset that can be sold to a different firm or something? Anyway, we have our next guest, our first guest, the Goulafflin in the restream waiting room. Let's bring him in to the TVP And Ultradome. Doug, how are you doing?
Speaker 2:Good to see you.
Speaker 4:Good to see you too, guys. How are y'all doing?
Speaker 2:Doing fantastic. Great to see What a day. What's what have your immediate reactions been to the to the AMD news? Was this on your bingo card for this year?
Speaker 1:Yeah. Did you see the person that bought, like, 6,000,000 of AMD calls, like, on Friday?
Speaker 2:Woah. Because Was that you?
Speaker 1:Hopefully not.
Speaker 4:I wish. Hopefully not. That's not me. I would be in super big trouble, so that's definitely not. So I I I I'm actually gonna talk more than just AMD specifically.
Speaker 4:The thing I think is really funny is that, like, look at all the announcements, man. I have a a very pet theory. It's kind of it's kind of lame theory if you think about it, but I think OpenAI is just trying to have everyone involved, like Mhmm. NVIDIA, AMD, SK Hynix, the entire memory chain, all the hyperscalers, and effectively, like, you know, it it's everyone's problem now. Everyone is all vested interest in in essentially OpenAI.
Speaker 1:Yeah. He's making himself too big to fail.
Speaker 4:Exactly. That's the right way.
Speaker 1:There's there's a world in the future where OpenAI needs effectively a bridge round, and he can go to a bunch of different people with big balance sheets and say, like, if you guys don't pony up, like, we're all going down.
Speaker 4:Exactly. That's the plan, man. Essentially, have you ever heard this phrase? Like, it's like if you owe the bank a $100, that's your problem. But if you owe the bank a billion bucks, it's the bank's problem.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 4:That's that's essentially what's going down, I think. So we're seeing, like, partnerships everywhere. It's kinda it's kind of a crazy, it's kinda crazy time.
Speaker 2:Yeah. What's your take on people, like, overfitting to, the .com boom and the WorldCom story? Do you think that's, like, overwrought at this point, or are there actually good analogies now that we're in, like, an infrastructure boom? It's not just valuations. Because we've had bubbles in, like, software, private markets, venture capital before, and those seem to have worked their way through so easily because it's just, oh, some fund that needs to, like, wind this investment down over a ten year life cycle.
Speaker 2:And it's such a small part of the economy even though the numbers never
Speaker 1:touched it. It's like there wasn't a lot debt.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Like like like Clubhouse was like $600,000,000, which is just like nothing compared to
Speaker 4:Who cares?
Speaker 2:The global who cares?
Speaker 1:And there there was there's there was a post that went super viral. It was a screenshot that was tracking like, the Nasdaq in in in the .com era to the Nasdaq today, and it, like, lined up absolutely perfectly. And then it turns out it was just completely fake news. Like, we tried to recreate it a bunch of different ways. There's some somebody, like, basically committed a chart crime
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:And it went super viral, and everybody's like, wow. It looks exactly it tracks exactly.
Speaker 4:You can't do that, man. It never works. Let's put it this way. It never works. I have a post.
Speaker 4:I just, I I okay. One, I wrote about the 2,000 Silicon Bubble. Sure. And two, I just wrote something that was mostly beyond a paywall, but, like, you could just look at the cover image, and it's just like, you are here. It's like the first interest rate cut was in 1998 Mhmm.
Speaker 4:In September, and I think that's that's probably our best analog.
Speaker 2:Like, I
Speaker 4:think that that's probably the best one to one analog, which means it gets a lot crazier from here. Yep. That's my belief at least. So if we look back to February, all the analogies and eras back then, I think the one that is kinda scary and worrying is, like, the the vendor financing.
Speaker 2:Like Yeah.
Speaker 4:That's a lot of capital for for your vendor to be putting up, and that kinda that's a little scary. Like, I I think it's getting a little circular, but, like, it's not it's it's definitely not tech bubble crazy because the valuation would have to be a two x from here. That's kind of the thing that's, like, a a little different. And I think the other thing that's also kind of interesting is, like, last time you could argue the entire tech bubble was kind of very focused and concentrated on the like, a very small amount of unprofitable companies that really didn't impact the economy when they all went bankrupt.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 4:The difference is today, who's the primary participants? It's the seven largest companies in the entire world. So that's that's kind of the the thing the push and take here that I think is really interesting. And now given what we publicly heard with the CapEx announcements, it's gonna be a lot of capital to get from here to there. And I think, I think it's gonna be interesting, man.
Speaker 4:But, honestly, if you look at everyone's balance sheet, no one's levered. That's the thing that I think is really interesting. Yeah. No one is levered at all, and, like, that's the that's the next leg.
Speaker 2:Yep. That's the next leg.
Speaker 1:I was giving a a sort of a a hypothetical example around the AMD deal to John. And tell me if this is just stupid or or too simple, but I'm walking around a farmer's market. I see a stand, a farmer selling some vegetables. I'm not that interested in the vegetables, but then I think, what would make me interested in this situation? Well and then I say to the farmer, how about you give me 30% of your company and then I'll buy some vegetables?
Speaker 1:Is that at all track with the the the the Yeah.
Speaker 4:I think it's
Speaker 1:Suddenly, I'm interested. If I if I Yeah. If I can get 10% of your company, I'm interested in being a customer.
Speaker 4:Yeah. I think it's also, also, I wanna I wanna highlight something that's really interesting Yeah. Is look at the different deals between AMD and NVIDIA. NVIDIA, you essentially have to, you know, they're like, okay. Well, please do an investment in us so we can keep buying your chips.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 4:And then the vice versa, AMD is like, no. No. No. You must invest in us, so please buy our chips. Yep.
Speaker 4:Like, that's the discount and the premium if you think about it. Right? Like, NVIDIA, you get the premium because it's like, it's a better chip, higher gross margin. They're like, you're getting so much of our money. You might as well just be an investor.
Speaker 2:Sure.
Speaker 4:And then on AMD's side, it's like, dude, you you you gotta we don't wanna we don't want this. So, like like, give us something in return.
Speaker 2:Can you take me
Speaker 4:through kinda the
Speaker 2:Yeah. Can you take me through kind of the view on on AMD generally over the past year? I know that seminalysis was pretty crucial. George Hots was talking about some, some, like, bugs that were in, the actual like, just trying to run large models on AMD chips was not going well. Your team was pretty integral in that.
Speaker 2:It seems like they're moving pretty aggressively to try and catch up. Is is that is that gated by money? Like, what's the what's the recent history of AMD in terms of, like, getting back in the game materially?
Speaker 4:So I do think they're much more competitive than they have been a long time.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Our
Speaker 4:team's definitely been working. Watch for some stuff from semi analysis soon. TM, I can't say anything more.
Speaker 2:Go subscribe.
Speaker 4:Yeah. But we're definitely we're definitely continuing to do some work in this space. I I think, look. On the smaller models, it just on the inference side, it seems like there's not a lot of differentiation, but on the bigger, extremely large world size, there is. So g p 200 is still lava land, but the Helios four fifty rack, which is gonna be this next generation, we're a lot more excited about, mostly because they get the ginormous discount of the equity.
Speaker 4:It's just kind of an insane thing what they've done, man. Like, it's such a big it's such a big amount of the the equity possibly on these pending warrants. Like, I mean, it's kinda crazy. It's like, hey. You know, you buy $40,000,000,000 of product, you get $20,000,000,000 product, $20,000,000,000 investment for free.
Speaker 4:Like, it's kind of this crazy, like, buy one, get one deal. So, I mean, I think that that's I I think I think they have a chance. They have a lot the qualifying chance.
Speaker 1:The other thing that that was interesting is it feels like OpenAI can have various partners buy AMD buy AMD chips, but then OpenAI gets to ex like, get to count that towards purchases themselves.
Speaker 2:In the Wall Street Journal article, they made it look like if Exercising the world. Oracle buys a bunch of AMD chips for a data center that
Speaker 1:up gets to exercise the top of warrants.
Speaker 2:Open AI gets to exercise the warrants, and those count towards AMD purchases, basically, even if it's not on on on OpenAI's balance sheet.
Speaker 4:Yeah. Pretty much, I think the way to think about it is it's a OpenAI infrastructure bet. Everyone who is in the OpenAI sphere, it counts. They're and they're just trying to get the most money, the most power, the most pull into it so that, essentially, you know, they're kinda creating gravity. Everything comes to them.
Speaker 2:Mhmm.
Speaker 4:Honestly, there's, like, a really good analogy. In 2020, NVIDIA bought, like, five x more capacity than everyone else in at TSMC, and so there was no room for anyone to compete. Kind of the same thing. They're taking all the oxygen out of the room for anyone else that isn't named OpenAI.
Speaker 2:What do you think about this? I I I feel like I heard this on Transistor Radio recently that, GPT five is still potentially running kind of like GPT four class model under the hood, doing a bunch of test time inference on top of it to get you a better reasoning model. But, like, the core architecture actually hasn't shifted that much. We're not we're so does that make it easier to port that model to AMD? Like, what is the actual barrier?
Speaker 2:We've heard about the CUDA moat, but is it something where, like, you can underwrite $100,000,000 of new kernel writing to run on AMD even though it's a huge hassle, but it's because you're still amortizing that original training run that you did on NVIDIA to inference it on AMD going forward with this new deal? Like, is there something where the the pre train is stabilizing to the point where porting to a new architecture is more justifiable?
Speaker 4:I I think that that feels like a stretch, honestly. Okay. I wouldn't I wouldn't know one to one on this one. Like, you know, if this was a world with no reasoning, then I would say yes. Definitely yes.
Speaker 4:Mhmm. Right? But I think reasoning really does change the game. And how you how you orchestrate these larger and larger context size windows and then multi nodes. Because that's a really hard game too.
Speaker 4:It's like multi node reasoning or multi node inference is very, very challenging, and so that's I don't think you get a perfect one to one. But, like, let's also be clear. AMD has caught up quite a bit in the last year. Yeah. Like, it's a big difference.
Speaker 4:And, like, that's I I think it's enough to maybe take a bet. And, like, you gotta also think about the bigger context here. You know, we're talking, like, what, $20,000,000,000 of revenue, mostly 2027 story. It's kind of peanuts compared to the numbers that we're actually talking about from everyone else. They're still fourth place.
Speaker 4:Let's be clear. Like, this is this is commitment, and I think you can see maybe a little bit momentum and inertia, but they're still in fourth place.
Speaker 2:For fourth place, with, NVIDIA TPU and Tranium above them?
Speaker 4:Yeah. Even Tranium.
Speaker 2:Even Tranium is above above them. Interesting. How are people thinking about actually valuing OpenAI at this point? It feels like you have all these, like, circular if you're I was trying to build a DCF for OpenAI to underwrite, you know, investment at 500,000,000,000, it's like, okay. Well, now I own parts of AMD, so I need to build a full DCF of that.
Speaker 2:But AMD is linked to OpenAI, and, I have all these, like, circular transactions.
Speaker 1:Press.
Speaker 2:Are are are investors, like, grappling with this, or is it all just, like, vibe based investing, what you've seen?
Speaker 4:I think it's I think it's a little bit of vibe based investing. I think the the real play here is, TAM is big. It's really, really big, and it's gonna be a lot bigger. Yeah. I think the other thing that's really interesting is some of the agentic purchasing can really unlock very, very, very large parts of the economy that previously you could argue they had nothing in.
Speaker 4:Yep. Right? If you're talking about, like, you know, the the partners they had available today, for example, booking.com, TripAdvisor, you know, we can be talking about, you know and this is, like, some some 2021 math. Right? But, like, 1% of all travel.
Speaker 5:You know?
Speaker 4:Yeah. 1% of all groceries. 1% of everything. And you're like, that's a big number. That's a really big number.
Speaker 4:Yes. And so and, you know, that's that's gonna be reps. So so I think that that's the that's literally the plan. I mean, they're trying to become the super app, and that means that they're gonna be integrated with everything. And you saw on the partnerships they have, they try to integrate as much as as possible with every every player of the stack.
Speaker 4:And so I think this agentic purchase push is going to you know, if we start to see revenue from it soon, which I think they're they're definitely shooting for, we'll we'll kind of open up the TAM story and start to monetize the free users because there's really only, like, a 100,000,000 paid users. It's not that much, but there's hundreds of millions of free users.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 4:And we're talking about a personalized assistant who could plan for you. You you could do something crazy as like, hey. I need a you know, I I thought I lost my travel bag or something. So I was like, hey. I need a small dock kit for on the go for everything.
Speaker 4:Could you just, like, you know, make a travel size and order it and get it to my house tomorrow? That seems very like, it it feels like science fiction, but that is, very much in in, like, the next twelve months. And so, hey. One to 3% on that transaction, that's a lot of money. And I think that that's the real way for it.
Speaker 4:It's becoming so integral into everything that everyone has invested in you.
Speaker 2:Yep. So
Speaker 1:What, so the the AMD order and the fullness of time is around six gigawatts. Where do you expect that energy to come from? Do you expect Sam to start doing crazy deals like this on the energy side? He's already has Oklo, which is just, you know, up He's
Speaker 4:not chairman anymore. Had to step down. Yeah. But
Speaker 1:Yeah. I I knew he he wasn't direct I mean, I'm assuming he's a major shareholder still. But So that's kind of one angle. But where else where's the power gonna come from?
Speaker 4:Dude, that's a trillion dollar question, I feel like. Definitely, there's a lot of ways to
Speaker 1:But it's important it's an important one. Right? If you're trying to if you're trying to underwrite and say, this is real, at least for AMD, it's like, okay. Well, how real can it be if there's, you know
Speaker 4:Dude, it's okay. So If if we can't plug
Speaker 1:them in. You know?
Speaker 4:There's a lot of ways. There's a lot of ways. Okay. So let's let's first talk about, like let like, the grid is actually not built for a 100% production. So there's a lot of slack in the grid itself because it's actually built for the highest day and the lowest day.
Speaker 4:Mhmm. It's built to, like, have a 90, you know, 99% margin rate, you know, confidence interval on the absolute high and the absolute low, so the the peak of the power. Mhmm. And so gas or not gas, but generation throughout an an average day is at a much lower utilization than a 100%. So I think the real reason and and something you're gonna start to see is that people are gonna like, essentially, the grid is gonna kinda start to become a lot more fragmented, and there's gonna be a lot of behind the meter power generation that happens at the data center.
Speaker 4:And so in that case, what you do is you'd sip from the grid, meaning that you can use the grid when the grid is not totally utilized. When it isn't, you're doing gas channel on-site. That's probably the thing that is most I mean, it's gonna be huge. We're it's gonna be huge. Like, natural gas, you know, energy consumption is just gonna go through the roof.
Speaker 4:So that's gonna be, like, the big driver, I think, to get these data centers online. I think it's gonna take a lot of time. And, also, we're seeing, like, grids breaking right now. Like, grids are just, like grids are not keeping up, and that's kinda been I think it's gonna be a big story in 2026. But I I I also think that that's where we're gonna see international purchases too just because, like, we're running out of power in The United States.
Speaker 4:I mean, I think what what's also interesting is, like, even though we say we're running out of power, when you have this big demand response, supply comes out of the woodwork. So we're starting to see stuff like gas gen, gas turbines, like, all these different, like, little clever pockets of energy are coming up to then fulfill the need. I expect that to continue. Effectively, you have enough demand, we'll you know, supply will find a way.
Speaker 2:Yeah. That feels like the next that definitely feels like the next wave here is we're gonna see a $100,000,000 a $100,000,000,000 deal for a new Hoover Dam and more nuclear actual build out. There was some news about this with, some of the hyperscalers, trying to recommission nuclear power plants, but it just feels like it's so slow. It's not on the order of, like, in like, what TSMC is fabbing next quarter. So we'd kind of lost track of it.
Speaker 2:But, it does feel like that that that's going to be the next chapter. And maybe it'll be a little bit longer lead time, but, you gotta start thinking about it now.
Speaker 1:Where where do you expect the leverage to come from if that's the next leg of the journey? Is it net new private credit fund formation? Is it is it just banks getting more and more active? Like, where is the capital gonna come from?
Speaker 4:Okay. So one, let's not forget, there's positive free cash flow from all the big guys. Yeah. That annually is something like, you know I have to have a spreadsheet. Maybe even open right now.
Speaker 4:Talking about the total firepower. We're we're talking quite a bit of capital is available to do this, like, surprising amount. I wanna say on an annual basis, something like $2.50, maybe even yeah. 200,000,000,000. But the thing that's also really interesting is none of the hyperscalers are levered at all.
Speaker 4:There's a really good paper from double line talking about, like, would you rather loan to the United States government
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 4:Or would you rather loan to Microsoft? So the real, like, you know, crazy town is if you start loaning to Microsoft instead of the United States government because Microsoft has net cash. Microsoft also, you know, has become more creditworthy over time versus, I would argue the US government has become less creditworthy. Yeah. And, also, what's really crazy is that Microsoft has, you know, a five bps premium to the United States treasury.
Speaker 4:So you're effectively you know, their rates are risk free. Yeah. And so what's possible, I think, in terms of, like now I think the real issue is, like, how much liquidity could the actual credit market handle. I don't know if they can handle, like, $300,000,000,000. Like, that's a shit ton of money, but, we're talking you know, there there's things that can definitely come out of those works.
Speaker 4:Like, private credit's gonna be part of it just because they're sitting on a on, like, an ungodly amount of capital, and they have to deploy it. I definitely think the hyperscalers for me are the one that are most interesting. Like, we're talking about I mean, dude, that's crazy. Just, like like
Speaker 2:It's funny you five say years. Yeah. It's funny you say 300,000,000,000 because I'm thinking I I was just doing the math on 250,000,000,000 in free cash flow. If if that's used to service five percent coupon payments, that's 5,000,000,000,000 in notional debt that like like, value. If you're just saying, like, what what like, we have you We wanna know where the where
Speaker 1:the systemic where is the systemic risk gonna come from?
Speaker 2:I don't know. I yeah. When we all
Speaker 4:run out together, that's the that's the problem. It's like, what happens is, like, it's just think of it as, like, one long debt debt fueled, binge. Right? Yep. But the thing is you're looking at the debt fueled binge, and I can tell you confidently today, there's not really much debt to go around at the big guys.
Speaker 4:So, you know, I think I think we could right now, today, you'd get and, also, I don't think everyone's gonna get to, like, three times leverage. That's just insane. I don't think any anyone wants to do that. Yeah. But I definitely think there's a play there's a way to get to $8,800,000,000,000 of credit.
Speaker 4:Like Totally. I mean, it would be insane. But that's one and a half turns from Meta, Microsoft
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 4:Amazon, and Google. And the two that I think are most interesting is the founder led ones, like Zuck and Sergei. They control the companies. They have voting shares. They can do whatever the fuck they want.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 4:So if they if they woke up tomorrow and said, get me, you know, get me a turn of EBITDA, on this bad boy, you they could get it. Now that'd be really crazy because, you know, they make a crap ton of money. I actually have the number right now. So right now, I think yeah.
Speaker 1:Meta's cash on hand at the end of last year was around 77,000,000,000. As of the June, it was down to 47,000,000,000 and just will continue to drop throughout the year. So they they already did that. I think it was, like, a $30,000,000,000.
Speaker 4:They're not even close. They're not even close, man. I mean so okay. I have the numbers right now. Yeah.
Speaker 4:Net debt is 17,000,000,000. Net debt for Google is negative 50 6. That means they have more they have more cash than debt.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 4:Oracle is 94,000,000,000, which is a crap ton. Like, you know, they're pretty much they're not tapped out, but they they really pretty much EBITDA has to go up for them to raise more. Yep. Meta's at 2,400,000,000.0 in debt, and then Amazon's 58,000,000,000 in debt. So, like, Meta's Meta and Google specifically, which are ironically the ones who are founder led, they have so much fucking they have so much free cash or, like, they have so much cash they could raise if they want to.
Speaker 4:They both have they both have, like, big gush cash, and they're both founder led. Like, that to me is you know, that's that's the next leg, man. And and, also, you have think about, like
Speaker 2:Sorry.
Speaker 4:Who doesn't wanna lose?
Speaker 2:Yeah. Well, why why are you not putting NVIDIA in that camp? Founder led. They have 50,000,000,000 in cash. They, you know, are are not levered yet.
Speaker 2:Like, they could also lever up and start investing more aggressively. Right?
Speaker 1:Well, they're doing they're they're they're enjoying some customer, you know, demand guarantees, which are which are Yeah. They're they're Yeah.
Speaker 2:What what's the story you're telling around around NVIDIA?
Speaker 4:I think I think NVIDIA is focused on a different level of stack.
Speaker 2:Right?
Speaker 4:Sure. Because NVIDIA is like, hey. We're an infrastructure provider, and, you know, we're having like, all these long lead time things need so much capital and time to get there. The thing that NVIDIA wants to backstop, in my opinion, is the NeoClouds. And so you're already starting to see that with, like, some of the the NeoCloud purchases that are or, like, the NeoCloud backstopping that happens at, like, Lambda or even Coriave to a certain extent extent.
Speaker 4:What happens is they buy essentially flex capacity for research GPUs for NVIDIA so they can get better at programming, like, GEM, essentially. But I think the thing yeah. I think NVIDIA is much more focused on their part of the infrastructure ecosystem to be a backstop instead of purchasing GPU hours. Right? Not they're not in the market to you know, they're a seller.
Speaker 4:And so so you know, if they if they woke up one day and said, hey. We're gonna just start buying this stuff in mass to make model, you'd be like, what the fuck's going on?
Speaker 2:I I I just wonder I just wonder if the NVIDIA story like, if they get in on this, like, debt boom, it it instantiates itself as, like, they lever up, and then in and then they basically have instead of 50,000,000,000 to throw around, they have, like, 200,000,000,000 to throw around, and then that goes into equity purchases of companies that are doing, that are do that are purchasing GPUs. And it sounds really circular, but, like, they are just another vehicle for credit to absorb, like, credit interest because they're such a big company.
Speaker 4:Yeah. I do think that that's possible, but I think I I just don't think I mean, you you see that in some of the smaller investments, but I think they're really focused on the neoclass and the data center side, like, the infrastructure around their ecosystem. Yeah.
Speaker 1:Yeah. So you think But yeah. Do you think Satya might be feeling like he went a little risk off too early? Yeah.
Speaker 4:I think so. And and and and this guy over here is listening to Transistor Radio. So, Microsoft's back. Like, I think they're I think they're gonna step back into the market in a big way. Like, especially on the MOU after OpenAI and also MAI, they're starting to be very focused on.
Speaker 4:Like, I expect them to be back in the marketplace now effectively. When I I still don't you know? So I think what happened is they did this giant build out in '23 where they said yes to every single leasing opportunity possible, and then they like, there was a top down pause, and now they're starting to pick up the pieces and be like, no. No. No.
Speaker 4:Actually, now by pausing, they have to pick back up. So I think, Satya definitely feels like I don't know. He was definitely in first place for a long time and would've if he just kept pushing, I think he would've kept in first place. And now you have, like, you know, Oracle popping in and being like, yeah. Like, I'll essentially steal all your business if you let me.
Speaker 2:We'll come
Speaker 4:in at a lower lower price. Like, I'm just gonna lever my entire balance sheet for it. Yeah. But we're talking about, like the four year guide is a $100,000,000,000, man. Like, that's insane.
Speaker 4:So that $100,000,000,000 arguably should have been all Microsoft's.
Speaker 2:And Yeah.
Speaker 4:That's, you know, that's that's up to them. And they will tell you, in public meetings that, like, you know, it's lower ROI for them. And, sure, that's that's the case. But I think Microsoft is definitely being conservative, and they have the biggest balance sheet. So they're I I kind of don't expect them to be the first player.
Speaker 4:I think of it as, like, kind of like, what is it called? Like, OPEC. You need a slippery person to essentially defect. And the slippery defectors is Meta and Google in my opinion. Those are the two biggest.
Speaker 4:And so when they start to really get into the game, all of a sudden, they're gonna be like, woah. Woah. Woah. This is attacking my business model, and I'm losing market share. And that's when, that's when the other guys come back in a in a big way.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Do you think SOAR is gonna move, any of these, like, GPU build out plans? Like, Sam was getting kinda mocked for saying, like, oh, we're gonna have to pick between
Speaker 1:I was to be clear. Yeah. I was the one saying. I said, I just thought it was I I mean, I I thought the the timing of going out and saying, yeah, there's a very real possibility in the future that we'll have to choose between curing cancer and free education for everyone. And then a week later, we launch, you know, the most Feels like you're most expensive products ever.
Speaker 2:Slop. Yeah. Yeah. But but, I mean, we got some we got some news on API pricing. It sounds like it's 32¢ a generation.
Speaker 2:Like, it it it feels like it might not be moving the needle as much on the on the inference side or actually, like like, is Sora gonna make them GPU poor? I I don't know if you have a view on that.
Speaker 4:It's 30 sorry. Sorry. It's 32¢ per inference. What's the time frame on that?
Speaker 2:It gets an eight. It's an well, oh, it's per second. Per second. Okay. So it's almost $3 for a for a 10 for a ten second clip.
Speaker 2:Okay. So that's actually, like, on par with v o three.
Speaker 4:That's pretty
Speaker 2:that's pretty expensive.
Speaker 4:It's pretty intense. That's pretty expensive.
Speaker 2:And they give you, what, 10 credits a day or something. So if there's hardcore users out there, they're generating $30 a day. What what is that? A thousand dollars a month? Like, it it it it's it's it adds up if you get a million DAUs on there.
Speaker 2:Like, that's a lot.
Speaker 4:Yeah. I think they're they probably have more they they have the potential to do much more than a million d DAUs. I mean, they're they're they're definitely compute rich, man. The comp the Pulse thing, you guys have you guys been doing Pulse at all? Yeah.
Speaker 4:Have. They they generate those images for you, and you're like, oh, a a little personalized slop feed for me.
Speaker 2:Like, that
Speaker 4:feels great. For me.
Speaker 1:I know. On on launch day, we were reacting to it, and John John was, like, John was very impressed. For me, it was like three out of the five images that I looked at were like great. And then like two out of five, I'm like, you could have just not generated this one. This is just absolutely garbage, you know.
Speaker 1:But Yeah.
Speaker 4:Yeah. What do you what
Speaker 1:do you think about better. What do you think we we had a question in the chat from Bobby. He says asking about, like, what what do you think about public sentiment risk? It feels like I've never seen more hatred of AI from from non tech folks than than in the last week or so. And you're seeing data centers data centers just getting kind of like blocked.
Speaker 1:That feels like a potentially you know, it's certainly gonna be a roadblock at a bunch of different stages of this build out.
Speaker 4:Yeah. I think that that definitely is a newer roadblock that is getting more real because, let's be real, up until now, no one cared. It's, like, such a small part of the big picture. But I still think the reason why I think we're we're gonna go bravely into the future is everyone else seems to be pretty on board, and I think the one that really helps is the Trump administration is, like, super duper on board. They're like, hey.
Speaker 4:Whatever. We're gonna tear off the shit out of everyone, but we're gonna we're gonna completely make up for the weakness in personal consumption by massively investing.
Speaker 2:Mhmm.
Speaker 4:And, you know, it's like, we're gonna get the biggest check from every company in the world, for every nation in the world. And the only thing anyone wants to spend anything on right now is GPUs. And so they're like, f it. We're building more GPUs. And so you're you're seeing all these huge announcements, and I think that that's the you know, that's that's kind of the thing that will kinda push it back.
Speaker 4:I mean, if Trump is being like, dude, from the government itself, I'm blessing you to buy more GPUs. That's kinda, I think, the thing that really holds it together and makes it possibly much crazier from here. The public backlash thing, I think that it really comes back to you have to have that feedback loop work all the way to the right decision maker, not just, some random person. Like, yeah, I'm I'm seeing that read it on the news too. But, like, Mark Zuckerberg or Satya has to wake up and then be like, what am I doing?
Speaker 4:Right? Right now, everyone in their camp, all the closest advisers and trusted people are being like, spend more spend more. The government you know, Trump is Yeah.
Speaker 3:I mean,
Speaker 1:the dinner the dinner, everybody wanted to say the biggest number. Right? It was even even Zac threw out a probably bigger number than he meant give your number.
Speaker 2:Okay. Yeah. I have a I have a completely One one
Speaker 1:one more question. How long do you think x AI can maintain this level of invest you know, bay basically, like, this level of investment without being able to back it up with real revenue growth?
Speaker 4:I
Speaker 1:Because it seems like this last financing, they were having to tell, like, the journal or some other publication, like, we're not having any trouble fundraising, which usually means, like, you're having not the easiest time if people are kinda poking around.
Speaker 4:I I mean okay. So the same way I'm not gonna bet against Sam Altman's ability to raise, I'm definitely not gonna bet against, Elon Musk's ability to raise. Like, Sam Altman is, like, the newest kid in the block, but if there's someone that, like, you should never essentially short ever in the history of time, it's Elon Musk. The other thing I think that's, like, much more important with that is Elon's back in the seat. He's the CEO of Tesla, and he, like, actually has the compensation.
Speaker 4:So he's like, fuck it. Alright. I'm I'm I actually I'm very locked in. Yeah. And, you know, if we're talking about Mag seven, you know, there's a lot of market cap.
Speaker 2:Tesla.
Speaker 4:Tesla. Oh, yeah. So things Yeah.
Speaker 1:But but to that's that's what I'm saying that the the yeah. It it just feels like I wouldn't be shocked if a year from now, x AI was a part of was merged in with Tesla.
Speaker 4:A 100%. A 100%. And then that, you know, getting And
Speaker 1:that would actually be a creep Tesla stock would pump on that even though because people just wouldn't.
Speaker 2:Yeah. It would no.
Speaker 1:And so that's gonna pump it.
Speaker 4:But XAI would would would crush because then they're then they they they're all of a sudden attached to one of the largest financial entities in
Speaker 2:the
Speaker 4:entire world.
Speaker 2:Totally.
Speaker 4:Like, that's that's a you know, we're talking trillion trillion dollar market cap. Right? Like, that's Yeah. Real fucking like, you can take that and turn it around. You can loan it out.
Speaker 4:You can you can move big checks, dude.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 4:It's very, very nontrivial for them to raise $1,020,000,000,000 dollars off of
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:What what I was getting at was basically this last financing where they're going and raising capital at 200,000,000,000, and those investors have just been getting pitched anthropic at, like, $1.70 with crazy with a crazy revenue ramp and a bunch of, you know, real real, you know, traction in code gen. The investors are looking around being like, okay. Like, I'll I'm gonna I'll give you the cash, but, like, I I don't know the next time around if there's gonna be the same level of appetite.
Speaker 4:There there's some really big pockets that back, Elon. I I I wouldn't bet against the Elon's here because you have to remember, he made a lot of billionaires out of it. Like, you know, for example, Larry Allison is always on the phone. I don't know if you knew that. Like, he's he, you know, he was good for a lot of x a for x when they took down Twitter.
Speaker 4:Yep. And so you can see a lot of big, people come out of the woodworks, and, like, Larry's flush now.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 4:You know, he's he's got a lot of equity to spend. Okay? Like, you know, these people can come out of the woodworks. So I definitely
Speaker 1:I had a I had a theory a theory that that we were kicking around earlier that I could see it because Larry's a was a big investor in the original X Takeover. Right? There's this iconic text exchange where Elon and Larry are talking and he's like, I'm good for a billion. And he's like, Elon's like, okay. You might wanna do two or something.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Whatever you recommend.
Speaker 1:And so I could see a world where x, the social platform, does not go to Tesla and get spun into the basically Paramount, this whole, like, media conglomerate. Right? Because I I just don't, you know, especially with x AI a part of Tesla. Yeah. It's not like Tesla's sitting there and being like, we need to be able to pump timeline posts instantly into every Tesla in America.
Speaker 1:It just stops being quite as strategic, maybe.
Speaker 4:Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I I I don't disagree with that take. That's a pretty good take, but I just think that, like, you know, Elon will find a way. Whatever way that that that needs to happen, if that's with Oracle, if that's with Tesla, like, Elon will find a way, I believe.
Speaker 2:Is there is there significant asset value in just Colossus two? Like, it it is the biggest supercomputer. It's this massive data center. It seems like it was very hard to build. It seems like all the hyperscalers would love to to to have it.
Speaker 1:Sam would love to have it.
Speaker 2:If you just ran an auction for it, do you have an idea of, like, what the value of Colossus two would be if there was, like, breakup value there?
Speaker 4:You know, at today's value, we I I mean, I would say it's probably probably, like
Speaker 2:Couple of
Speaker 4:tens of billions. Mean, I mean maybe not tens. I mean, let me I don't see tens. Actually, I have tens tens. That's not because it's
Speaker 2:So Are we
Speaker 4:talking are are we are we including costs too?
Speaker 2:Yes. Okay. Then, yes, tens. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2:I I'm just thinking, like, like, the XAI assets, like, sure, the business isn't necessarily, like, printing profit with some massive consumer product market fit.
Speaker 4:Someone will be really stoked.
Speaker 2:But someone will be stoked, and there's some value there. It's interesting.
Speaker 4:If you think about whatever Amebius is, just that deal with, Microsoft Yeah. Literally scale that up, and that's that's probably what you would buy on a TCO basis for Colossus. Like Yep. There's demand. So okay.
Speaker 4:Okay. Bye. To go, man.
Speaker 2:Yeah. One one last question. You gotta go? One last question. One last question.
Speaker 2:One Hair brained, hair brained theory. I want your feedback on this hot take. There's a lot of discussion over the value of TSMC and Taiwan risk, but we now have the golden visa, $2,000,000 to bring someone to America. For a $100,000,000,000, you could bring 50,000 people. Is there is there some world where we get into, like, AI talent wars but for process knowledge around semiconductor manufacturing?
Speaker 2:And and we see some American entity start poaching TSMC employees en masse to get them to America.
Speaker 4:That's definitely possible. I just don't feel like it's probable. People have been saying there's a supply shortage yet. Like, TSMC has a lot of, like has almost a captive audience, dude. Like, if you think about it, TSMC's, like you know?
Speaker 4:I mean, it'd be, like, working for the government almost, but, like, even more procedures and killing the shit out of everything. Like, TSMC is, like, the company of Taiwan. Sure. Dude, honestly, TSMC engineers are, like, really underpaid as is. Like, on Yeah.
Speaker 4:Don't tell don't tell them. Right? But, like, on a on a on a dollar basis compared to even American peers, and a lot of people like like, China, for example Yeah. Coaches very heavily. So I think there's definitely a chance, but I feel like you have to take the entire know know all.
Speaker 4:Like, it's not just the tool. It's the tool, the process, everyone. You have to take the whole fab. But, yeah, I think that'll be I think it'd be sick, dude. I think if Intel
Speaker 2:Intel could do it. Right?
Speaker 4:Intel should do it.
Speaker 2:Intel should it. Because they have the golden visa. They have the backstop from Trump. They have all the investors coming in. They'll probably have an OpenAI deal soon.
Speaker 2:Who knows? And then they have all the money, and then they can just bring people Anyway, we won't take any more of your time. Thank you so much for hopping on the show.
Speaker 1:Super fun, Doug. Always great to
Speaker 2:see you. Nice
Speaker 4:see you, guys. Yeah. Talk soon. Bye.
Speaker 2:Let me tell you about Turbo Puffer search every byte, serverless vector, and full search from First Principles and Object Storage, fast, 10 x cheaper, and extremely scalable. Also heard Doug talking about agentic commerce that's more important than ever to get your brand mentioned on ChatGPT. Go to ProFound. Reach millions of consumers who are using AI to discover new products and brands. Our horse post popped off.
Speaker 2:We took our first day off on Friday, but we did give you some facts about our horse in the studio, which you can see behind Jordy Hayes over there. And we got a wonderful reply from Eric who's working on Soil Tech. He says, the horse is a symbol of deep the horse as a symbol is deep Lindy, power, camaraderie, and frontiering forward motion. As a Kentucky as a Kentuckian, I can only agree, more horse content and shares three beautiful images of horse statues Incredibly underrated animal. In other news Most underrated.
Speaker 2:Dan McCormick, Packing McCormick's brother, has launched his creatine gummy brand in Target. That's Create. A wild step in this journey that in many ways started with him posting on X. Three years ago, he was embarrassed to be starting a creatine company. He'd shy away, hedge, and downplay when asked about it in real life on X.
Speaker 2:Surrounded by a bunch of like minded freaks. I could post openly about my excitement and the business' progress. I've shared a lot less over the last two years, but my bullishness the
Speaker 1:the timing on Create Dan's
Speaker 2:Really good.
Speaker 1:Perfect timing is
Speaker 2:Very early.
Speaker 1:Saying it was it was it felt like a supplement that was already had almost perfect saturation. Totally. Right? I think anybody that I knew that was like working out days a week was already using creatine. But never doubt American demand for supplements in gummy format.
Speaker 2:And never
Speaker 1:doubt it again. Never doubt Never
Speaker 2:doubt Niagara.
Speaker 1:Never doubt demand for gummies.
Speaker 2:Oh, this is fun. Ramp made an acquisition today. They bought Jolt AI, to help their engineers build faster. Jolt is a world class team of engineers who have spent years solving some of the hardest problems in developer productivity. Today, ramp is welcoming them to the team.
Speaker 2:They're scaling the AI platform and reimagining how software and finance get built. Said from a talent perspective, says Kareem Atiyah from Ramp, Ramp's engineering team is made up of founders, math Olympiads, and AI researchers. Kareem's goal is to hire elite technical talent and then get out of their way for his poll for his part, Jolt's Spectre, the founder, admitted in an interview that he didn't expect to get acquired by a company like Ramp, but that he's extremely happy. It's where his team landed. The trio will be working on a number of things, including Ramp's internal engineering platform.
Speaker 2:So congrats. Fantastic. We should ring
Speaker 1:Hit that gong, John. First hit of the week. It's good to be back. Oh, awesome. Technium says you can now invest in NVIDIA, Intel, AMD, ARM, OpenAI, Mistral, CoreWeave, Nebius, and more with just one ticker.
Speaker 2:NVIDIA. Of course. We also had a
Speaker 1:So Bob Parikh is it just says word.
Speaker 2:Is he is he continuing? He's posting again. Is he continuing to to run? We also got some Gong analysis. This is from Ethan Frost on September 30.
Speaker 2:He said, I analyzed every Gong hit on TBP and here's what I found. Tyler, can you take us through this post, of what, what the breakdown was? And and do you think this was, manually tagged, or was there AI involved? It's some it's it's a pretty remarkable breakdown of of all the different all the different Gong hits, how much they raised, and then and then how loud the Gong hit was. But explain this post to us.
Speaker 3:Yes. The the bay I think the main thesis was, like, are Gong hits on two p n, are they louder as funding increases?
Speaker 2:Yes.
Speaker 3:You can see the correlation is like slightly there. I I think it's a bit hard because of like, sometimes the microphone is just a little bit further away.
Speaker 1:Sure.
Speaker 3:So you didn't it wasn't like, you know, a crazy kind of correlation. But, yeah, he basically just indexed all of the Gong hits that we've basically ever done.
Speaker 2:Yes.
Speaker 3:And then done a ton of data. So, like, series a, series b. He he breaks it all down. He also breaks down between you guys. Okay.
Speaker 3:So there's some good facts here.
Speaker 2:Who's louder on the Gong? Me or Jordy?
Speaker 3:Let's look. Definitely Jordy.
Speaker 2:Definitely Jordy? For sure. Okay. Definitely me.
Speaker 3:Yeah. John is is standing more often
Speaker 2:Standing.
Speaker 3:Than Jordy when he's hitting the gong. But Jordy throws
Speaker 1:Do I but I throw the mallets.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Jordy throws the mallet a lot more.
Speaker 1:Now I've got a clean shot. Gotta be
Speaker 2:You gotta really rip it. These are these are so funny. Total gongs, I heard by day of the week. Why are there so many on Saturday and Sunday? We don't record on Saturday or Sunday.
Speaker 2:I was very confused confused by this.
Speaker 1:Oh, maybe the weekly recap
Speaker 2:Maybe. We post sometimes.
Speaker 1:I like Anyways, fantastic analysis. Yes. And
Speaker 2:The toss. Let's see the the the toss hit. That's a funny one.
Speaker 1:I like that. Underutilized.
Speaker 2:Anyway, thank you for your for your service. A legend.
Speaker 1:Bucho Capital says, I put 10% of my portfolio into reshoring semis, and it just wasn't even close to enough. Mhmm. Easiest money of our lifetime. Listen to the president. Should have brought a shovel, not a teaspoon.
Speaker 1:That's true.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Very interesting to see where the where the Intel story goes. I wonder if there will be an OpenAI deal for CPUs or
Speaker 1:something. Justine Moore was sharing that Taylor Swift is using AI generated videos to promote her new album. Yeah. I was surprised to see that. Biggest artist in the world.
Speaker 2:Usually, there's like a ton of pushback when big artists
Speaker 1:Feels like
Speaker 3:she would get
Speaker 2:She's a prime might be happening. I haven't followed it too
Speaker 1:Patrick McKenzie says, think the economic logic of this is inevitable and that you'll need video to get your n plus one marketing post through the noise on social media even as Taylor Swift. And your choices are either a 100 k shoot per post or relatively junior employee with some taste. Yeah. And, yeah, it's a good take.
Speaker 2:Yeah. There is this development of, like, will everything be instantiated in every possible format? So if you have a startup launch video or announcement, you'll write a pithy tweet, and then you'll write a blog post, and you'll also drop a podcast, and then you'll also drop a Vibreel and a video and a two hour documentary. And they will all be instantiated from just a short fact sheet that then goes out. And it begs the question of, like, where will the where will the instantiation live?
Speaker 2:Will I, as the consumer of content, say, I want to consume the these sources in video format? That's kind of the NotebookLM model. It's like, I am saying, wanna consume the Internet in a in a podcast format. With ChatGPT, you're kind of like, no matter what question you ask, no matter what the sources are, it's it comes to you as a as a, you know, neatly organized research report that's a couple thousand words with bullet points, and it's not this, it's that every time. But but then there's the other side, which is on the lives on the creator side, which just says, I should instantiate my idea, my concept, my take as a TikTok reel, as a YouTube video, as a podcast, as a video.
Speaker 2:And I do that on my side. And I'm wondering where it lives long term. Like, it because there is a world where you can go to where Taylor Swift doesn't need to generate the AI generated video because I, as the Taylor Swift fan, can go to Sora, and it knows that I'm a fan of Taylor Swift, it automatically generates it for me based on Yeah. Just her text post
Speaker 1:or Yeah. Or she could just share she could just share the prompt in text in the notes app.
Speaker 2:And then you could just imagine it. Exactly. Maybe. I don't know. It'll be somewhere in between.
Speaker 1:Ethan Frost is in the chat.
Speaker 2:Oh, really?
Speaker 1:Let's go. Let's go. Hey.
Speaker 2:What's up, Ethan? Thanks so much.
Speaker 1:Great to see you. Thank you for analyzing the gunk.
Speaker 2:Yes. What else? Linear. Linear's purpose built tool for planning and building products. Meet the system for modern software development, streamline issues, projects, and product roadmaps.
Speaker 1:I would go out on a limb and say everything that OpenAI launched today was almost certainly planned and linear.
Speaker 2:For sure. For sure. Oh, this is a fun one. So Kareem Jeddah says, introducing Gaslight Garage, a box where I put my phones and feed them AI generated audio nonsense to make them think I want to buy stuff, practical AI for the people, Gas Light Garage. And Snowy or s n w y says, I tried this once after getting into an argument with my parents about whether your phone listens or not.
Speaker 2:Where do you stand on this, Jordy? Do you think your phone is listening to you?
Speaker 1:Man, such a tough one because everybody has like an example or two. Yep. But if you think about
Speaker 2:We talked about this
Speaker 1:ads you get
Speaker 2:And then I saw an ad for
Speaker 1:many different things you you see how many ads you get over a multi year period Yep. How many products you talk about over a multi year period
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 1:And then at some point or another there's You're gonna be like perfect alignment Yep. Between the two. Yep. And then also, have to factor in people that search for something once and then, you know, on a certain network and then forgot about it or someone else in a household searched for something and then somebody else in the household gets served. Right?
Speaker 1:There's a lot of different ways to explain away the the listening
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 1:Aspect. But
Speaker 2:I yeah. I I noticed that some of the spookiest, you know, ads that I would ever see would be it would come from a conversation that I had with a person in real life where, like, yeah, the phones could have been listening, but more like and then I saw an ad. So they tell me, oh, you gotta test out these headphones, and I see an ad for those exact headphones the next day. And I'm like, that's weird that I just heard about that, and now I'm seeing an ad. How did that happen?
Speaker 2:I know I didn't search for it. I know I didn't send any any data signal to my phone or my apps. But then I realized that it's like, well, if they just ordered those headphones and that data of them shopping and them going through that checkout flow is encoded in their Instagram profile, and then it knows that we hung out because we're friends on the network and we like each other's posts and we were texting with each other on the app and stuff. And then it can say, well, Jordy, just like these headphones, John and Jordy were just hanging out, showed John the the the like, they might be similar consumers. I feel like that can be, like, kind of spooky, but not but very, like, a clear flow that would come from the data.
Speaker 2:But, anyway, Snowy said, got two iPhone 6s both wiped and connected to two different Wi Fi networks with independent VPNs, said keywords to one and different ones to another, never in earshot of an of each other with multiple apps, Insta, Facebook, Twitter, open with their accounts and basic usage. And the ads were never what I said. They were basically always location basedpretty basic things. My running theory is that whoever thinks their phone is listening is just predictable enough that it knows not because it heard them. I think that's probably right.
Speaker 2:Plus, there's this massive incentive that if the phones were listening and targeting, there would be a huge incentive to become a whistleblower. Like, there's been a whole tour of folks who have, like, left Meta, become in become influencers You
Speaker 1:can go get a book deal.
Speaker 2:And get a book deal. Exactly. You can become get
Speaker 1:a TED Talk.
Speaker 2:Exactly. Exactly.
Speaker 1:You can get a government job. How how much somebody at Meta
Speaker 2:You can wants pay to testify? Maybe they should do that. The appearance fee for for testimony on Capitol Hill. Let's make it happen. Anyway, Numeral.
Speaker 2:Sales tax on autopilot spend less than five minutes per month on sales tax compliance. Someone, someone in the in the chat is like, I was just thinking about Numeral.
Speaker 1:How did they know?
Speaker 2:He's speaking to me directly. Well, you and Tyler should debate this one. MrBeast said, when AI videos are just as good as normal videos, I wonder what that will do to YouTube and how it
Speaker 1:will impact millions of creators making content for a living scary times. And Justine Morehead. It's kinda crazy that biggest YouTuber comes out and and comes out and just scares everybody because I think if you dig into this at all, it's pretty easy to show how AI presents an incredible opportunity for existing creators. Like, yes, some amount of attention will go to content will go to net new net new content creators that are just using the tools better or more focused. But nowhere in here does it say that if you're making a living from content today, you can't use AI to make significantly more content, significantly better content.
Speaker 1:It it it's it's much more of a opportunity than a threat in its current form.
Speaker 3:Yeah. I also think I it's funny coming from mister Beast because it's just like, this is like slop on slop hate. Like, I mister beast is like I would not want my kids to be watching mister beast videos. If you watch them, it's just like the cuts are like every like one and a half seconds. It's like pretty insane already.
Speaker 3:So I like, I I think mister beast style
Speaker 1:Well, also if you remember if you remember, he wasn't he tried to create a tool that used AI to make thumbnails and he eventually rolled that feature back because it was taking away potential revenue from thumbnail artists.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Yeah. So I I mean, I I would say that his style of content is much more susceptible, I guess, to to like being
Speaker 1:See, I totally I totally disagree because I think part of the reason, like, can see what you're saying in the sense that, like, you can argue, like, this is slop. I don't want people to to I wouldn't want my kids to watch it. At the same time, it's very clearly the opposite. It it it's the opposite of slop in that it's, like, massive, massive productions, real humans.
Speaker 2:Did you see the reaction
Speaker 1:to somebody like
Speaker 2:Don't worry, Jimmy. Like, people want to know that you made a 100 people stay in that circle for
Speaker 1:a month. Exactly. It's like It wasn't much really more entertaining if if you just took Mr. B style content and made it using AI, it would not be nearly as entertaining. Right?
Speaker 2:Yeah. People want the people want the suffering.
Speaker 1:It's like why or or you could just watch two robots play chess. Right?
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 3:Like, okay. You can say that it has this big budget, but, like, I I don't think you can't say that mister beast is like, oh, it's like this auteur cinematic content. Like, it's still at, like there's like okay. It's like that they have real people, but above that, it's just like this is like very stimulating like fast paced content.
Speaker 1:Yeah. But a big part of it is the the human suffering element. AI It's a real I I I I, you know, wait until AI can actually suffer like a human.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I mean I mean I mean, you could I I'm I'm trying to think of the most recent example, but there there is something about just, the fact checking chain of, like, if you're watching someone do like, I I bet when the x games happens or when Red Bull does their next stunt, like, that will get more viral views than the Stephen Hawking novelty x games video just because there's something that we know that the fact that that the X Games is a real organization, that they own that they're not posting AI generated content, and they've made that commitment to only show videos or Red Bulls only showing videos of humans doing wingsuiting through a helicopter off of a cliff or whatever. And so, there's something that just hits, like, a more emotionally like, it's more emotionally resonant. And then there's also all of these, like, downstream, like, behind the scenes. Like, like, the Mr.
Speaker 2:Beast, like, are the videos fake? Has been a long time debated. He's kind of one beat those allegations every time. But, like, the the incentive to, like, kind of see, like, a whistleblower on someone who's, like, faking their content will be, like, at an all time high. But I would imagine that the the institutions that still make people suffer will do quite well.
Speaker 2:But I don't know. I mean, for for I I think it'll definitely, like, widen the gap. Like, if you're if you're if you're making content that is at all substitutable with Slop, like, you're done. But if you're making content that cannot be challenged whatsoever and is so, like, uniquely human but, yeah, where where does mystery
Speaker 1:solve all A good example is, like, our is is Andrew Huberman threatened by someone else coming out and creating an AI based persona Yeah. That tries to do the same thing that he does. Right? Yeah. In terms of, like, creating long form content around various health protocols and health topics.
Speaker 1:Yeah. And I think that even if you could put the level of craft in Yeah. That the Huberman Lab team does, do you want to be getting health advice from an imaginary robot? Right? Or is it or do you want health advice from Andrew Huberman because he's 50 he's absolutely jacked and he's living living his best life.
Speaker 1:Right? It's like who you know, where the content is coming from matters a lot.
Speaker 2:Yeah. For sure.
Speaker 1:So
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. The providence matters. People people care about other humans. They they're anti clanker at their core in many ways.
Speaker 2:Well, let me tell you about fin dot ai, the number one AI agent for customer service, number one in performance benchmarks, number one in competitive bake offs, number one ranking on g two. In other reshoring, we're not just reshoring chips, we're also reshoring Sharpies. Apparently, Sharpie found a way to make pens more cheaply by manufacturing them in The United States. Newell brands move production.
Speaker 1:Need one of these. They need to make the red, white, and blue Sharpie pack immediately. I need these.
Speaker 2:This is actually mentioned in the Wall Street Journal article. Apparently where is it? Donald Trump uses a Sharpie all the time or something like that.
Speaker 1:For signatures. Right?
Speaker 2:Yeah. Where where is it? Pen barrels whirl along automated assembly lines that rapidly fill them with ink. At least half a billion Sharpie markers are churned out here every year, each one made of sick sick six parts. Only the felt tip is imported from Japan.
Speaker 2:It didn't used to be this way back in 2018. Many Sharpies were made abroad. That's when Chris Peterson, who is the CFO of Sharpie maker Newell Brands, challenged his team to answer the question, how could they keep Newell from becoming obsolete compared with factories in Asia? I felt like we had an opportunity to dramatically improve our US manufacturing. He's now the CEO, and he makes all 93 colors of Sharpie at a thirty seven year old factory.
Speaker 2:And they did it without reducing employee count and without raising prices. But to get to this place, it took close than two close to $2,000,000,000 in investments across the company. And so And, of
Speaker 1:course, this is a $2,000,000,000 market cap company.
Speaker 2:Okay. It's like what book value to market cap is one to one, apparently? If they did all this CapEx.
Speaker 1:Company has so
Speaker 2:I wanna get the CEO on the show at some point. President Trump uses a custom Sharpie. He slapped high tariffs on many imports with the goal of prompting more companies to do what Newell has done and bring manufacturing back to The US. But Filippo Fallorini Fallorini, an analyst at Citi, said few companies in the sector have the resources to replicate Newell's move. Well, I think we're ready for our next guest.
Speaker 2:Ready? Let's bring in Celine from Loyal. But first, let me tell you about Adio customer relationship magic. Adio is the AI native CRM that builds, scales, and grows your company the next level and get started for free. Let me also tell you about public investing for those that take it seriously.
Speaker 2:They got multi asset investing, industry leading yields.
Speaker 1:There you are. They're trusted
Speaker 2:by millions. Yeah. We're hoping to get a real horse in the studio at some point.
Speaker 5:I can help with that. Yes? I have, like, three.
Speaker 2:No way. Wait. You actually have horses?
Speaker 5:Yeah. Yeah. I'm a crazy horse girl.
Speaker 1:Where?
Speaker 3:Yes.
Speaker 5:At Petaluma. Petaluma?
Speaker 2:Yeah. Do you live there?
Speaker 5:No. Okay. It's SF.
Speaker 2:Cool.
Speaker 5:But I do the anti commute.
Speaker 2:Okay. Yeah. What is that?
Speaker 5:Like, you drive up against the traffic Okay. To North Bay to go ride your horses.
Speaker 4:Okay. Okay.
Speaker 5:I've taken investor calls while on a horse. Okay. No way. Almost fell off. On an investor call while on a horse.
Speaker 2:Wait. Walk me through, like, are they the same breed? Like, what's the story with the three horses? Why three?
Speaker 5:Horses are potentially the worst investment you could ever make. I do not recommend them. They are worse. I feel like there's some, like, seed valuation joke you could make here Mhmm. About horses.
Speaker 5:Mhmm. Anyhow, they tend to break themselves. They're, like, self destructive.
Speaker 2:We were thinking about getting a horse at one point. We wanted to race in the Kentucky Derby and give it, like, some funny name.
Speaker 1:We were we were gonna call it the ramp.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Oh were my we were and we were running the numbers and it wasn't that crazy as a marketing
Speaker 1:you get into it and you're like, okay, maybe it's like a 100 k for the horse and then it's
Speaker 2:like a
Speaker 1:couple grand a month to like But it's such a funny stop.
Speaker 2:Someone's gonna do it now that we Dude,
Speaker 5:that color would look sick on a horse, though. Like, imagine the racing stripes.
Speaker 2:I'd love it. Anyway, sorry. Kick us off with an introduction on yourself and the company.
Speaker 5:Hi. Yeah. I'm Celine Holloway. I'm the founder and CEO of Loyal, and we're developing drugs to extend a dog lifespan.
Speaker 1:Amazing. Horses next?
Speaker 5:Horses next. Venture capitalists next.
Speaker 1:Venture capitalists eventually.
Speaker 2:Well, yeah. What was the inspiration for the company? Did like, did you know that you wanted to start with animals, or was that purely like the FDA?
Speaker 5:No. So I actually was working in human longevity. So I worked with a previous guest of y'all's, Laura Deming
Speaker 2:Amazing.
Speaker 5:At her venture fund for a And few we were just frustrated because nobody was trying to develop a drug explicitly for lifespan extension. Right? And we're like, this is obviously, like, we all
Speaker 1:want was a qualify sci fi promise. Yeah. Right? Everybody was promising it but nobody was working on it specifically.
Speaker 5:Not directly. No. They're all kind of going these indirect paths. And so we became obsessed with how to do this. Realized to do it in humans, it would take a lot of time
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 5:A lot of money. But you could do it in dogs. Yeah. It's a super crazy market. I hear one of you is a dog person.
Speaker 2:I am. I am. My dog was supposed to attend, but I have to leave right after and
Speaker 5:Dude.
Speaker 2:He's busy. He was chasing squirrels. He's a 10 year old Newfoundland, so he needs
Speaker 5:Oh, wait. So you understand this? No. Yeah. Like, because we're starting with big dog on your,
Speaker 2:yeah, on your homepage.
Speaker 5:There's Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2:For a while, at least.
Speaker 5:Yeah. No. Newfies are the shit.
Speaker 2:Yeah. No. It was, like, the dog was, pitched to me as, like, look. Every every day after year five is like a miracle because they're known to have extremely short lifespans. And so I kinda set myself up for, like, look.
Speaker 2:Like, I'm I'm not coming in. Like, you you you get a you get a golden retriever. You're not thinking, like, yeah. It's gonna live for forty years. So I just went into it thinking, okay.
Speaker 2:I'm getting Newfoundland. Six to eight years or something, and he's done very well. He's 10 years old.
Speaker 5:Good job. We need to sequence your dog. Send you a saliva kit. We actually have an investor that has two giant newfie Yeah. That they bring around everywhere.
Speaker 5:Oh. Like on his plane. It's it's hilarious.
Speaker 1:And Well, that's why he's living so long.
Speaker 5:Well, yeah. That helps. And Do
Speaker 1:not take your dog's commercial.
Speaker 5:Yeah. But I actually got convinced to take their term sheet because they sent me their Pinterest board, which was just new fees
Speaker 2:New fees?
Speaker 5:All the way down.
Speaker 2:I love new fees. They're the best dogs. Fully committed. They're so good. So, yeah, on the, like, the fact that there's never been a drug explicitly for longevity, is that just because, like, in order to have a drug, you need a, like, a problem or some sort of, like, it needs to be a treatment for a specific condition and and just death is not a condition?
Speaker 2:And so is is that the right narrative?
Speaker 5:Yeah. Like, the way to think about it is to be able to have a drug to approve to do something, you have to prove that the drug the drug is doing that thing.
Speaker 2:Sure.
Speaker 5:And so if I gave you guys a longevity drug and I was like, oh, let's see if it extends your
Speaker 2:fifty years.
Speaker 5:Yeah. I'd be following you for a decade Yeah. That the company's gonna be long dead Sure. And all of that.
Speaker 1:It's also hard to prove that the drug was the catalyst for
Speaker 5:Exactly.
Speaker 1:Your life. Right? It could have been, oh, they just got a lot of sun or they walked a lot or Yeah.
Speaker 5:There's a lot of variability.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 5:Right? Like the decisions you make, the yerba mate being pro or anti longevity, whatever it is. Right? All of these things vary aging. It's one of the most complex Sure.
Speaker 5:Phenotypes, but we all go through it.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 5:And that's the same thing is true in dogs. But the good thing about dogs, at least when you're developing a longevity drug, is they age much faster. Sure. So you can see if something is working in a period of time that's much more reasonable.
Speaker 1:And you can Yeah. You can theoretically have a much more, like, isolated study. Is that right? Just because
Speaker 5:What do you mean isolated?
Speaker 1:Well, I just imagine, like, it's easier to control factors in a dog's life versus, like, a bunch of
Speaker 2:Like, a dog is not going on a bender in Las Vegas.
Speaker 5:That is yes. Yeah.
Speaker 2:So so so you can just be like, yeah. Wait. Well, we know exactly what the dog's diet was pretty much every single day. Maybe he got into cheeseburger once. But a human is is, like, using Diet Coke one day and then some alcohol and then this and then Bender and then Burning Man.
Speaker 2:Who knows? There's so many confounding factors.
Speaker 1:Dogs are didn't have, like, a cheeky cigarette habit earlier in their life that they don't talk about or shit.
Speaker 5:No. It's true. Yeah. Dogs just it's a lot it's still complicated, but it's much more simple. And then you also have these individual breed variants Yeah.
Speaker 5:Which teach you a lot about humans too. True. Right? Like, why does a new fee have such a short life span a golden versus a chihuahua? You can study these things quickly way.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Why not why not mice though? I feel like there's a lot of mice studies. It works in mice.
Speaker 5:You know, I love mice. I don't think mice are a multi billion dollar market.
Speaker 1:Oh, yeah. That's the thing. The the commercial opportunity Yeah. With dogs if you ask a dog owner how much would you pay to have an extra year Yeah. Of of healthy lifespan for your dog.
Speaker 1:Yeah. And I'm sure there's a wide range between like a thousand dollars and some people that are like, I would pay any price. I will, you know, liquidate my $4.00 1 k for another two years.
Speaker 5:It's actually really interesting, like, people it's not actually really at all correlated socioeconomic status or how much, you know, people cash people have in the bank. They will just spend anything. A certain subset of the population will spend anything on their dog. I've had people offer me $50,000 for the drug before. I would like to note to the FDA that I said no.
Speaker 2:Yes.
Speaker 5:But I've actually gotten a lot of offers like this. Yeah. That's crazy. The willingness to pay is insane. Yeah.
Speaker 5:The market is huge. And so we could hopefully make a multi billion dollar company around this and then use that revenue to fund more research.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 5:Maybe into horses.
Speaker 2:Love it. Yeah. What was the More podcast. Initial
Speaker 1:Yes, please.
Speaker 2:What was the initial target kind of the the the biotech side of the business? Like, how did you know what to target? How did like, how did you narrow it down? Like, there's a lot of different life extensions, NAD and telomere extension and just, you know, cardiac stuff. There's like a million different sub indications that people think about when they're thinking about their own longevity.
Speaker 2:Yeah. How'd you narrow it down? What did you focus on?
Speaker 5:So the way we thought about it is we wanted something that was as broad as possible. So as, you know, efficacious and relevant to the chihuahua as it is to another dog. Right? And even if they have different food or different behaviors or, you know, more in bread or less in bread that it still may work.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 5:So that was one. And two, you want something that's relatively simple. Right? Aging is so unbelievably complicated that when you add any additional variables, like, things just become exponential really quickly.
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 5:And so where we actually started is what you were talking about early with new fees Yeah. With a short lifespan of big dogs. Yep. Because it turns out the genetic driver of dog size, the thing that makes a newfie grow really, really big in puberty or makes a chihuahua not grow big in puberty, also genetically controls the rate of aging Interesting. Of that dog.
Speaker 5:So your newfie well, maybe not your newfie, but the average newfie is actually aging at a much faster rate.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 5:And so that was a really nice place to start because, a, it's something that everyone understands, especially big dog lovers. Mhmm. They're like, I know I know the heartbreak of losing a Great Dane or losing a a large Labrador.
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 5:And it was, like, simple mechanistically.
Speaker 2:Mhmm.
Speaker 5:And it was applicable to a wide swath of the canine population. Basically, any dog over a certain weight would be eligible and has this problem. Right? Because they're not living as long as a Chihuahua that lives for sixteen years. Every other bigger dog has a somewhat shorter lifespan than that theoretical maxima.
Speaker 2:Mhmm. So, I mean, how do you explain what the drugs are actually doing?
Speaker 5:So, basically That's
Speaker 1:a black box, unfortunately.
Speaker 5:Yeah. Basically, the way to think about it is you know, all puppies are born approximately the same size. Mhmm. But a Great Dane puppy has super high levels of these proteins called growth hormone Mhmm. And IGF one.
Speaker 5:And these are circulating at really high levels and they're basically binding to their cells. They're saying, grow divide, grow divide. And that's why your burner puppy or newfie puppy is getting so
Speaker 2:big. Yep.
Speaker 5:That's normal. It happens in humans too, but it shunts down significantly once you're fully grown.
Speaker 1:Sure.
Speaker 5:In a big dog, it doesn't.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 5:So big dogs still have these super high levels of these growth hormones circulating around that are basically making the dog turn over
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 5:At a faster rate. So what the drug does is it inhibits those levels, brings them down to a level that's seen naturally in dogs. So think bringing a new phase level down to an Aussie Shepherd Mhmm. Or something similar. Interesting.
Speaker 5:And this is like this idea that if you reduce growth hormone, if you reduce IGF one extends lifespan, it's actually been shown all the way from worms
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 5:To mice to, you know, a multitude of organisms and there's even human centenarians that have the same genetic, you know Oh, interesting. That chihuahuas do.
Speaker 2:And our our body is
Speaker 1:spiritually chihuahuas.
Speaker 2:So so is is is the, like
Speaker 5:I think that's an insult.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Is the scientific, like, phrase, like, IGF one inhibitors, essentially? And are biohackers using that, like, wild, like, against the FDA? Are they
Speaker 1:trying How much can you learn from these sort of fringe biohackers and what what they
Speaker 2:These n m one standards.
Speaker 1:Anything to learn or just
Speaker 5:Well, yes. There's always things to learn. You know, it's funny. People actually often will supplement growth hormone IGF one because it makes your muscles really big.
Speaker 2:Oh, sure.
Speaker 5:And it's very aesthetic.
Speaker 2:It's kind of like human growth hormone.
Speaker 5:Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. It does not increase function, but it does increase like muscle size. So a lot of people are might not be happy.
Speaker 1:Interesting. It doesn't correlate with strength at all.
Speaker 5:It's just like
Speaker 2:Gives you the pump. I
Speaker 5:mean Yeah. You guys can't tell? I'm on it.
Speaker 1:That seems Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I mean, yeah. Plenty I think the people that are taking h g h are doing that specifically entirely for aesthetic reasons, and they're they're post strength.
Speaker 1:Right?
Speaker 5:Yes. Yes. They are post strength.
Speaker 2:But but are there people in the bio in the biohacking community that swear by it, or are are they optimistic that it will have an effect on longevity for them?
Speaker 5:Yeah. I mean, this mechanism is pretty consensus Sure. As a longevity mechanism.
Speaker 2:So yeah.
Speaker 5:It's not gonna be as, like, this specific one, the big dog short lifespan isn't gonna be as relevant to humans because, like, I'm not living twice as long as you guys. Yeah. Right? Me being so short that I'm having to, like, sit on my feet.
Speaker 2:Sure. But a newbie does live twice as lives half as long as a chihuahua.
Speaker 5:Exactly. Exactly. So think of it as kind of like a biological hack
Speaker 4:Yep.
Speaker 5:To have a foot into a very, very, very complicated biological problem.
Speaker 2:Yep. What's the current understanding of why women live longer than men?
Speaker 5:I mean, we just do less crazy shit.
Speaker 2:It's just risk taking?
Speaker 5:Yeah. It's a risk
Speaker 1:taking. No way.
Speaker 2:I think it's there was like heart attacks or something.
Speaker 5:No. I actually don't know. Know. There's like a real reason, but I don't
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. I like the idea that dudes are just wing seating.
Speaker 5:Dudes are just fucking insane.
Speaker 2:So so walk me through the the actual process to commercialize and and, you know, grow the business. I imagine the FDA has a number of different subgroups. Veterinary medicine's one of them. Is that a more receptive, faster pathway than just the traditional drugs for humans pathway? Are you accelerated there?
Speaker 5:Yeah. So the the FDA on the veterinary side is super stringent. Right? It's it it matters a lot. In some ways, you know, it's almost more because a dog can't talk.
Speaker 5:So you're really trusting the FDA and you're trusting your veterinarian that this, like, pill you're giving isn't gonna, like, cause some disaster.
Speaker 2:Sure.
Speaker 5:But the nice thing with with canines is that the incentives are really, really aligned.
Speaker 2:Mhmm.
Speaker 5:Right? Like, wants dogs to live a longer, healthier life. And preventative medicine is really where it is with dogs because, there's no insurance. Nobody's getting half a million dollar cancer, CAR T therapies or whatever. Right?
Speaker 5:It's always a dog owner having to pay out of pocket. So most of the really successful dog drugs today are already preventative medicines. Think like heartworm prevention. Right? It's reducing the risk of your dog getting a disease that if you give the drug, you'll never see them get that disease.
Speaker 5:Yeah. Right? Flea and ticks, same thing. There's a lot of categories of medicines like this. So, yeah, it's actually been really fun to work with them.
Speaker 5:And then the new administration is like, well, it's a little complicated. Like super pro longevity.
Speaker 2:Mhmm.
Speaker 5:Right? And so it'll be interesting to see how that maybe impacts the human side where things are very regulated, also just a bit more complicated.
Speaker 1:But it seems absolutely critical even just from a fiscal standpoint that we figure out how to get Yep. People to live longer and healthier.
Speaker 5:Yes. It's you know, people when you talk about longevity, they tend to be like, oh, but like you're just gonna make the rich live longer. Mhmm. And like the fact of matter is that the rich already live longer because they can also access better cancer meds, better, you know, doctors. I do like preventative screens all the time.
Speaker 5:The vast majority of Americans could never afford that. Right? Versus like a daily cheap pill that broadly extends your quality of life and broadly extends your lifespan. It not only helps that individual to potentially prevent them or delay them developing cancer, it also helps their children who aren't gonna have to become caretakers
Speaker 4:Mhmm.
Speaker 5:Before their own careers have taken off. It means that they can have more flexibility in pursuing doing the next great thing.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 5:I think actually, like, you know, better health of the population is the one of the best great equalizers we could bring.
Speaker 2:Yeah. How how closely does the does your business track to what I'm loosely familiar with in the biotech world where it's like, you're in the lab, you develop the drug, then you test it on, like, dog, monkey, mice, something like that. You take that data through phase one, phase two. It's a multiyear process. Yeah.
Speaker 2:The company might IPO and then get bought by Merck or Pfizer at some point. Like, that's what I think of when I think of biotech. Like like, yes, we've created a new drug for, like, this very specific cancer, but it's still a ten million dollar or $100,000,000,000 outcome because it, like, it picks this one thing and it became very profitable. Is that the typical path or is it wildly different in veterinary?
Speaker 5:Dude, your biotech context is, like, on point. I'm actually super impressed.
Speaker 2:We had a bunch of biotech investors and founders on one day when Trump was doing the most favored nation thing. He tried to do
Speaker 1:that whole thing.
Speaker 2:Mhmm. Which I don't really know where that went, but anyway,
Speaker 5:just in terms what almost a 100% tariff on us and then that
Speaker 2:got Really? Yeah. No way.
Speaker 5:But that got taken away. Okay. Yeah. It's been really interesting. It's been exciting.
Speaker 2:It's all a roller coaster this year.
Speaker 5:My cortisol is just like
Speaker 2:Perfect. Yeah. It's good for longevity. Yeah.
Speaker 5:My personal longevity is not benefiting from the So the way to think about it is if if you're comparing to human is you do maybe backing up a little bit. The overarching themes of developing a dog drug is it takes like four to seven years basically by a combination of how effective and how lucky you are to get a dog drug approved. Takes about 20 to $50,000,000. Mhmm. For context in humans, it takes a decade to develop a human drug.
Speaker 5:It takes about a billion dollars to develop a human drug.
Speaker 2:So you're like orders of magnitude faster and cheaper.
Speaker 5:Faster and cheaper. Yep. And then actually the coolest thing And
Speaker 1:you guys have been pretty lucky. Right?
Speaker 5:We've also been lucky. Right? And, like, totally.
Speaker 2:Where did you catch Lucky Breaks?
Speaker 5:Oh, my god.
Speaker 1:Like Well, I just feel like I I feel like Everywhere. Average when whenever you guys announce it, like, any type of milestone, the average investor is basically sharing something to the effect of you guys don't realize like how rare this is. Like the speed at which you guys have been able to
Speaker 5:I mean it's kind
Speaker 1:of just like knock down these different milestones.
Speaker 5:It's I mean, we've gotten the first ever efficacy approval for a longevity drug. We've created the first regulatory pathway for a drug to be approved for longevity. All of It's Right? Obviously, it's in dogs, but it's any species. And dogs actually are they're man they're regulated by the same federal regs as human drugs.
Speaker 2:So
Speaker 5:it's it a was still a really huge lift. We've gotten the we're running the first ever lifespan pivotal FDA enabling clinical trial. Like all of these things are super super hard. We got obviously we're like have a smart team. But yeah, you have to get really lucky too.
Speaker 5:Right? We got lucky at the drugs. When you pick a drug and you're like, this is gonna be our lifespan extension drug
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 5:It either is or isn't. Right? And there's nothing I can do as CEO to make this drug work if it doesn't work.
Speaker 2:Well, you can try and take Right. 10 drugs through the pathway at the same time potentially. That's kind of what
Speaker 5:we're doing. Yeah. We have like four in development. Okay. That's But really expensive.
Speaker 2:Of course.
Speaker 5:Right?
Speaker 2:So you have to you have to pick a couple candidates that Mhmm. Have the most promise, and luck comes in and that, like, you hope one of those is the one that you picked.
Speaker 5:And you hope there isn't some, like, random toxicity that
Speaker 4:you
Speaker 2:find out
Speaker 5:at the eleventh hour. Yep. And that, like, totally nukes. And especially especially with with a a longevity drug, there's zero tolerance for adverse events. There's zero tolerance for me turning your
Speaker 1:dog Yeah. Because it's not like you have a bad condition that you're trying to treat Exactly. With some side effects or or you the average patient would be okay with some side effects. Yep. It's like you're that you're going from net neutral to it has to
Speaker 5:be Exactly.
Speaker 1:Reduce quality of life. Yeah. Mean, that much. I mean, there's people like What are some of the human The the drugs that human patients are taking? I feel like Peter Atia and are taking certain drugs that
Speaker 5:like Like rapamycin?
Speaker 1:Yeah. Like they they Metformin like reduces your like athletic performance.
Speaker 5:They all have some like like Metformin is like works by improving your metabolic fitness
Speaker 2:Mhmm.
Speaker 5:Which we actually have drugs that are actually our lead drug now is developed is improving metabolic fitness in senior dogs. It's a very like robust way. Like if you've ever intermittent fast or calorically restricted Yep. That's a way to improve your metabolic fitness. Metformin just does that as a drug.
Speaker 5:It's an old diabetes drug. But yeah, it has a bunch of like stomach side effects. And also just when you give And there's also for a long time, bad things can happen.
Speaker 1:Yeah. There's also it can't if somebody were to reclassify it as a there's no incentive to reclassify metformin as a longevity drug Nope. Because it's off patent.
Speaker 5:Right? Exactly. No one I didn't know that.
Speaker 1:Because I was because there's a there's a lot of it's debated. Right? But there's a lot of evidence that, like, aspirin could could be potentially beneficial. For lifespan, but nobody would do the work to reclassify it because it's off patent. Yep.
Speaker 1:You could you could go and you could spend a billion dollars proving Yep. That it works, and then everybody could just make it.
Speaker 5:Yep. Yep.
Speaker 1:So Yeah.
Speaker 5:Yep. And this this is like a niche thing that actually
Speaker 1:And so you can't even market aspirin as No.
Speaker 2:No. It's not it's
Speaker 1:not a viable legal claim.
Speaker 5:Yeah. No. No. And this is a niche reason why loyal it made a lot of sense and why I was like, okay. Guess I'm gonna go and do this is your you have this catch 22 when you're trying to develop a human longevity drug, which is you need something that has a ton of safety, both acutely.
Speaker 5:Right? So you took like five of them, nothing bad is going happen, but also over a period of time. Yeah. Right? If I give it to you for a decade, is it going to increase your risk of colon cancer The only way you know that is by giving it to that person for a decade.
Speaker 5:By the time you have done that, the drug is generic. One of the really cool things about animal health is that the FDA tries to incentivize people to develop and prove that new drugs work for animal medicine. You actually can get ten years of exclusivity from the FDA
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 5:If you develop a novel a generic drug for a novel use case Oh, I realize. So we have actually both. We have in licensed human drugs. We have generic drugs. But it means that you are able to go in and say, look, this might not work, but it's not going to do any harm.
Speaker 5:And that's so important when you're trying to create regulatory pathways, when you're trying to convince veterinarians to prescribe something that's never existed before, to convince the dog owners to do something they've never done before. To be able to say wholeheartedly, there's decades of data and we don't think this drug's gonna do any harm, Are that
Speaker 1:you guys getting, feeling any acceleration from various AI models? It seems like we have people on the show every week that are building AI for science, AI for drug development Yes. And foundation models dedicated to it. And yet, you're here. You haven't said AI once.
Speaker 5:I have not said AI once. And this was so funny. It was a meta point. We were like working on like loyal narrative stuff. And I was like, should I just like let go of my ego and like have an AI story?
Speaker 5:And I was like, there's like Anyhow, there's there's no AI in the loyal story. But like I really debated it because I was like, man, I wonder if this would like increase my evaluation by like a factor of two.
Speaker 2:What about ELS? And that would
Speaker 1:be good for horses. And that be good
Speaker 5:for Yeah.
Speaker 1:No. But it but it that's saying something that you're actively doing all of this drug development. And meanwhile, there's companies coming out and they're making the claim at least to investors that they're gonna be able to, you know, speed up drug development, do it more efficiently Yeah. Etcetera.
Speaker 5:So, I mean, so here's the problem.
Speaker 1:Because I'm sure you've tried to figure out how do we how do we unlock value here.
Speaker 5:Yeah. So here's the problem with AI for drug development is I'm like, I'm not an AI person. But like, I am like, in terms of, like, technically trained. But I am, you know, sure the models are good enough that we gave them biological data. They could infer things that human scientists couldn't.
Speaker 5:The problem is we don't have those data sets. Mhmm. Like, they they don't exist for a human. I can't, like, say, okay, here's, like, your model. And if I give you the drug, how is it gonna react in this part of your body, that part of your body?
Speaker 5:How is it gonna, like, get reduced over time? How is it gonna interact with this other drug you're on? We just don't have those data
Speaker 2:sets. Yeah. We saw this with AlphaFold. Like, AlphaFold came out. Protein folding solved.
Speaker 2:It turned the biotech markets didn't really move because it turns out that actually solving protein folding problems is, point 1% of the job to do to get a new drug to market. You gotta recruit patients and then monitor them and then talk to the FDA and do legal clinical trials Yeah. There's so much more to do.
Speaker 5:You know, like, our our big longevity study that we're running in dogs right now, I think the biggest risk to it is actually operational. It's data quality. It's dogs not dropping out. It's veterinarians complying. Right?
Speaker 5:Like, the biggest reason this study would fail is that we if we have to throw out a bunch of data in five years because it doesn't adhere to the standards that are necessary.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 5:Right? So there's some interesting AI companies for like the beginnings of drug development like Chai Discovery Oh, is one that's trying to do basically better antibody
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 5:Binding design. That's smart. I think that makes a lot of sense. But, I mean, I'd love to be proven wrong, but I think there there hasn't been like a moon shot for the the bio data gathering on the clinical side that would be necessary to like model you and see what works
Speaker 1:not a good. Yeah.
Speaker 5:It's yeah.
Speaker 2:It's not
Speaker 1:a business. You're taking a even if somebody was able to raise a billion dollars with the idea, it's like would they would they'd come to you and be like, what do you need? And then they'd be like a services provider to
Speaker 5:like Yeah. And that's the hard thing. Like, so we're building all these bio banks out. And so we're gonna have, you know, potentially the one of the best data sets of translational aging in a species that's the best model of humans that is in humans. So maybe we'll be able to do it from then.
Speaker 5:But, like, I would I would feel disingenuous for me to say, like, yeah, that's the strategy because just like no one knows. Like, biology is like the ultimate black box and it's the ultimate humbler, honestly.
Speaker 2:What about peptides? Are dogs on Ozempic yet? Are dogs on Ozempic?
Speaker 5:Actually, so this is my favorite fun fact. Everyone is like, oh, are you just developing like Ozempic for dogs? And the answer is no.
Speaker 2:Mhmm.
Speaker 5:Because people don't want their dog to not be hungry. Think about it. Right? You go home, your dog's super excited to see you, jumps on you, you're like, oh, my dog loves me so much. I'm the alpha male.
Speaker 5:Your dog's probably hungry. Yeah. Right? And so when people give their dog Ozempic or Ozempic like drugs
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:It just takes all the joy.
Speaker 5:It takes all the joy.
Speaker 2:Oh, man. The dog becomes
Speaker 5:a cat.
Speaker 2:Oh, no. Wow.
Speaker 5:No. This actually
Speaker 1:existed My over my most cherished memories with my dogs growing up, it was like my dad, my brother, and I making scrambled eggs for the dogs. Yeah. It's like that was
Speaker 5:Yeah.
Speaker 1:Peak peak peak experience as like a, you know, 10 year old.
Speaker 5:No. Totally. It's a it's not a not a good market. So like our other drug that's working on metabolic fitness to extend lifespan, is very similar to how Ozempic works. It is targeting, you know, improving metabolic fitness, but it's a we make sure explicitly that the mechanism that we're hitting, doesn't impact, appetites and doesn't impact, like, weight in general.
Speaker 2:Any book recommendations for us?
Speaker 5:That's cute that you think I have time to read as a
Speaker 2:Any movie recommendations? Must love dogs. What you got for us?
Speaker 5:You know
Speaker 2:Dog related I watched
Speaker 5:Love Is Blind France last night. Okay.
Speaker 2:Love is Blind.
Speaker 1:Really trying to turn off
Speaker 5:I, you know, I'd I, you know, I wanna be one of those like CEOs. I'm like, these are the esoteric Yeah. Hyperintellectual books I'm reading that show that I'm smarter than you. What? No.
Speaker 1:Was reading a book that there's only one copy. It's thousands of years old.
Speaker 2:Yeah. PDF. You don't have access
Speaker 5:to It's English but you wouldn't you wouldn't understand. Yeah. But like honestly like loyal is my all day every day. Like I don't have
Speaker 2:What's the general routine like at loyal for you?
Speaker 5:So we're actually fully remote. Okay. Which I know. Contrarian. Contrarian.
Speaker 5:Yeah. But actually works well because we have to hire people. We have to hire the best possible person for each skill set we need. And often those people are not actually, they're almost never in the Bay Area. I'm going to Saint Louis after this.
Speaker 5:That's where we have a lot of team members. We have a lot of team members in Kansas. We have them in Florida. Right? And so it you get so much more benefit from hiring the right person for the right role than you do saying, I'm gonna hire the second or third best person, but they're willing to move to SF.
Speaker 2:Mhmm.
Speaker 5:Right?
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 5:So for me, I actually just, like, live at coffee shops. I sit out of some of our investors' offices, bring my dog. Maybe one day whenever I'm able to fly private, I'll bring my dog.
Speaker 2:Is Antonio Gracias the one with the two newfies? No. Okay. Because
Speaker 5:No. He does have a cute dog though, or his his partner does.
Speaker 2:Because it's it says you raised from Valor. I did raise
Speaker 5:from Valor.
Speaker 2:We gotta hit the gong for you. Thank you so much.
Speaker 5:We're hitting the gong for me.
Speaker 2:Of course. I mean And all the dogs. All the dogs.
Speaker 1:And currently in getting studied. Congratulations. What, what's the next big milestone that people should be looking out for?
Speaker 5:The next big milestone? I mean, we're just trying to bring this damn drug to market. Honestly, like, that's a big one, hopefully, in the next year or so. I mean, pray for us. It's like the the hard stuff's behind us, But there's a lot of hard stuff in front of us too.
Speaker 5:So
Speaker 2:Well, good luck.
Speaker 1:Just caught between hard stuff Yes. As every entrepreneur is.
Speaker 5:It's it's a worthwhile goal.
Speaker 1:Anyways, well, I think we can close out the show with you because we actually hit the road.
Speaker 2:Well, first, we gotta tell you about 8sleep.com. Yeah. We're gonna Get a be pop getting five. We're gonna put the animals on the Eight Sleep. There you So if do have an Eight Sleep, that's great.
Speaker 2:We also gotta tell you about
Speaker 1:Bezel. You want
Speaker 2:a watch for your dog, go to getbezel.com. Get him a Submariner. And if you wanna extend the life cycle. Take your dog on a vacation, head over to Wander.
Speaker 1:There you go.
Speaker 2:Find your happy place. Book a Wander with inspiring news. Hotel creator. He's streaming the best
Speaker 1:talk to When can we buy loyal stock? I'm assuming you can't answer that. We
Speaker 2:got a reason
Speaker 5:talk? SEC something something. Okay. Sorry, guys. Sorry, guys.
Speaker 2:Private company. Become a venture
Speaker 1:capitalist Someday in a very bright future, I'm sure. Yeah. But thank you for tuning in with us today. Thank you for
Speaker 2:tuning in.
Speaker 1:We will be back tomorrow morning. I can't wait.
Speaker 2:See you tomorrow.
Speaker 1:Have a great afternoon.
Speaker 2:Goodbye.
Speaker 1:We love you. Bye.