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Dan Hope and Andy Anders of Eleven Warriors bring you inside the Ohio State beat every Wednesday with a podcast covering everything you need to know about the Buckeyes.
Note: This transcript was AI-generated and has not been edited for errors.
[Dan Hope]
Welcome into Real Pod Wednesdays, I'm Dan Hope, he's Andy Anders, as we are entering the first week of Big Ten play for Ohio State football. The Buckeyes have concluded their non-conference portion of the season, finishing that part of the year with three decisive wins against Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall. But now the real tests begin, right Andy?
[Andy Anders]
Yes, I mean that's the sense we got from Ryan Day on Tuesday certainly. Paraphrasing here, but basically the indication was from him on Tuesday that they haven't played anybody yet, nobody should feel good about anything. This is a team that he wants to keep hungry, he doesn't want to see satisfied with what they've accomplished against some pretty weak competition to start the year.
Not their fault obviously, but you haven't really had that test yet, and I think Michigan State is a clear step up in competition. Michigan State is going to be a much better team than they've played in these first three games, four weeks, because you had the buy-in there. And certainly you're going to get to test a lot of those improvements that you have made in those games, some of the trends we've seen run-blocking with this team.
It's going to be an informative week on the road here to see where this team is at, even if Michigan State maybe isn't the same challenge as what will come down the road with Oregon, Penn State, Michigan, and the like.
[Dan Hope]
Yeah, we've talked about this first half of the season kind of being a ramp for the Buckeyes, and you started out with Akron, who's one of the worst teams in the FBS. And then you had a step up a little bit to Western Michigan, and then I think you had another little step up this past week to Marshall. And now I think you start getting into bigger steps up.
And granted, Michigan State, maybe not a team that's expected to be a contender in the Big Ten this year. Probably a team that, when we kind of go through our Big Ten rankings here on this show, is probably somewhere in the middle of the pack, probably on the bottom half of the Big Ten. But this is still the best team, pretty clearly, I think that Ohio State has faced to this point of the year.
They have the best quarterback Ohio State will have faced. Even if interceptions have been a big problem for Aiden Giles, he still presents a skill set that Ohio State simply hasn't faced at that quarterback position this year. Between his big arm that he has and his dual-thread ability, he's going to test this defense in ways that it has not yet been tested.
And then on the other side of the ball, you look at Michigan State and what they've done so far this year. They're 18th nationally in yards allowed per play, with only 4.25 allowed, and 25th in points allowed per game with 14.3 allowed. Now, they haven't faced anyone like Ohio State, so it kind of goes the same thing for both ways when you're evaluating both teams here.
Ohio State hasn't faced anybody as good as Michigan State, but Michigan State hasn't faced anybody as good as Ohio State. This is going to be a big litmus test for the Spartans as well, but I think there's no doubt that this game, at least relative to what Ohio State has faced so far this year, is going to be the toughest test of a season to date. Especially when you factor in, but it's also going to be the first time this year that the Buckeyes have gone to play on the road.
[Andy Anders]
Yeah, you mentioned the defense that Michigan State presents, and I think balance is the main thing. I think I look out in this matchup between Ohio State's offense and Michigan State's defense and I say, this is a unit that is going to test you everywhere Michigan State-wise. They're going to make you earn, at least so far, that's what they've shown these first four games that they've played, is they're going to make you earn what you get on offense, I think, in a lot of ways, because they're just well-rounded.
You have guys in the front 6-7 that can make a lot of plays for them, but they're top 30 in those big four defensive categories, all four of them, passing yards allowed per game, rushing yards allowed per game, scoring, and total yardage. When you have a defense where they don't have that one weakness that you point at and say, okay, here's what you exploit, it forces you to take what's there. To Will Howard's credit, he's done a great job of that so far this season, I think, of distributing the ball where it needs to go in this offense, making the right reads in the run game, but you'll be curious to see what Michigan State tries to come out and take away from Ohio State and then how Ohio State counter-punches that.
And if all this offensive progress we've seen, especially in the run game the first three weeks, holds true when you're on the road at night, it's going to be a raucous environment there at Spartan Stadium, and I'm just looking forward to taking that game in and seeing again what, really, especially on the offensive end, you feel like is the first test of where the Buckeyes are this season.
[Dan Hope]
I was expecting you to say at night. At night.
[Andy Anders]
Can't recycle the jokes too much, we've got to keep them on their toes, Dan.
[Dan Hope]
Spongebob callback from a couple weeks ago here on the show, but it will be a night game for Ohio State, a 7.30 game. We had heard last week that it would be a 7 p.m. game, that game now being changed to a 7.30 kickoff. Not really sure what the point of that is, quite frankly, other than just keeping us up a half hour later.
The game is on Peacock, so it's not exactly in a defined time slot. By moving it to 7.30, you're now starting this game at the exact same time as Georgia, Alabama, and Penn State, Illinois. So not entirely sure what the point of that is, but nevertheless, we adjust 7.30 p.m. We will be up there in East Lansing to cover the Buckeyes, Big Ten opener, and we'll get back to that at the end of the show to make our predictions for how that game will play out. But wanted to go a little bigger picture here to start the show. As Ohio State begins Big Ten play, Ohio State, for the next, at least the next nine games for Ohio State, it will be playing Big Ten opponents. It has now finished the non-conference portion of a regular season.
It will now play half of the newly expanded Big Tens teams over the next ten weeks, with one bye coming in there. A second bye for the season coming in after that game against Oregon in the Buckeyes' sixth game of the year. But what I wanted to do today, with Big Ten play starting, and with us now being four full weeks into the college football season, with every Big Ten team having now played at least three, if not four, games, to kind of reevaluate how the Big Ten is stacking up right now and who we see as Ohio State's top competition in that Big Ten championship race, and who we see as the toughest opponents that Ohio State is going to have to face during the regular season.
Because we broke this all down in the summer, but I think there's certainly some things that have changed, some things that have stayed the same. When we talked about this in the summer, we were both in consensus agreement that Ohio State's top competition in the Big Ten this year was going to be Oregon. I'm still of the opinion that Oregon is Ohio State's top competition in the conference, even with the rocky start that it had against Idaho and against Boise State.
I think Oregon is the most complete team outside of Ohio State in the conference. I think it has the most offensive firepower outside of Ohio State in the conference, and the best all-around talent of any team other than Ohio State in the Big Ten, and they have that advantage of getting to play Ohio State in its home stadium. Right now, if I was doing Big Ten power rankings, I would have Ohio State at number one, but I would have Oregon at number two.
Andy, would you agree with that assessment?
[Andy Anders]
Yes, and I don't think it's changed, even as they struggled to start the season. For me, look, the first month of the season is always going to be weird. If you're one of these power teams, we've seen plenty of big-time teams, and I know Ohio State really hasn't, but we've seen a lot of big-time teams struggle in some of these Group of Five games, maybe as they're getting their bearings, as new units are being figured out, as you're developing that chemistry and developing the newer pieces to start a season.
Even those first couple weeks as they struggled with Idaho, and Boise State's a really good team. I think we qualified that before when we talked about that game. Boise State's a really good team, and I think that was a good early test for Oregon.
Going on the road, beating Oregon State like they did in that game. Dylan Gabriel, I mean, I was just looking at his stats today. They're kind of unbelievable.
84% completion percentage to start the year, 914 yards, six touchdowns, no picks. 9.7 yards per attempt is really respectable, especially when you consider he's completing 84% of his passes. I mean, that's a number that just hits you.
Stiffer tests, stiffer defenses to come, I think. Obviously, when you talk about the Big Ten, and especially when you talk about playing Ohio State and having possibly, probably the second, not the second, the best secondary. I almost said second-best secondary because it's secondary.
The best secondary in the country with Ohio State. But Dylan Gabriel has played out of his mind. Jordan James has looked good running the ball.
Defense is starting to figure some things out. I still place Oregon second in the Big Ten behind Ohio State, and I think they're starting to round into form. Some question marks maybe along the offensive line, especially after their right guard got injured here, but I think that, for the most part, Oregon has shown, as they've kind of put the pieces together early in the season, that they are, as we expected, the second-most talented team and the second-most complete roster in the Big Ten.
[Dan Hope]
After Oregon is where it gets a little bit tougher for me. I think we both agreed before the season that Penn State was the Big Ten's third-best team entering the season, and I would still say that right now. Now, Penn State's kind of like Ohio State in that they haven't played that much competition yet.
They did start the year against West Virginia, which is certainly a better opponent than any one Ohio State had played, but its last two games, coming against Mack School, struggled against Bowling Green. That was a game that Penn State was in some danger of even losing in the fourth quarter against a Mack School. Then obliterated Kent State this past weekend, but Kent State is probably the worst team in the entire FBS this year, so you can't take a whole lot from that.
And so I still don't know quite what to think of Penn State. I would rank them third because I do think that they're, outside of Ohio State and Oregon, the most complete team in the Big Ten. I think their passing game has taken strides this year.
I think they definitely have one of the best defenses in the conference. They have a strong running game with Nick Singleton and Katron Allen, and so I do have them as the third-best team, and yet I start looking at the upcoming games on that Big Ten schedule, and Penn State plays USC a week from now. Going off of James Franklin's record in big games and having to travel to L.A. to play in that game against a USC team that, at least until this past weekend, had looked pretty good, there's a definite chance I'm going to pick USC to win that game. So I have Penn State as my number-three team in the Big Ten right now, but I'm not quite as solid in that assessment as I am with Ohio State at one and Oregon at two.
[Andy Anders]
Well, you talk about USC next week, and how about Illinois this weekend? I mean, Illinois is a team that surged big time, and I'm really interested in that game. I think Illinois could be legit.
That Nebraska game, I feel like the USC-Michigan game was one where both teams shot themselves in the foot a little bit. Both teams had areas of the game where you said, man, they really came up short in this area. For Michigan especially, it was the passing game, and Alex Orji having all of 32 yards through the air.
They only threw the ball 12 times and really just tried to ground and pound and shorten that game and run the ball on USC and wear them down over time. And Kalel Mullings, I mean, that 63-yard run that set up the go-ahead touchdown for Michigan, there haven't been many worse displays of tackling I've seen. USC's defense clearly still has issues.
I thought Nebraska and Illinois, that game on Friday, both played really complete games. I thought those were two really good teams matching up in an raucous environment. Memorial Stadium, when Nebraska's good, is one of the best environments in college football, I think.
I love that stadium. Only been there once, but a very good environment. I thought that win from Illinois might be the most impressive win in conference play a Big Ten team has to this point.
And for me, that might be the most interesting Big Ten game coming into this weekend. Yeah, I think even looking at the slate, you could talk about Wisconsin at USC. But for me, that's probably the most interesting game this weekend in the Big Ten is Illinois and Penn State.
And who's the real contender here, right? Because Penn State hasn't really had that test yet. They did go on the road to West Virginia.
And I've been impressed with Drew Aller so far, their defense, their running game, like you said. But for me, I think that's going to be a really good test of where Penn State is at even this weekend. And then you mentioned USC next weekend.
For me, I think Illinois is kind of rising up the ranks. We talked about those top three separating before the season. Illinois, can they compete with the big boys?
And where are they at relative to Penn State? But to your point, right now, I still have Penn State as my number three team in the Big Ten. And I expect them to win a close one on Saturday when they play Illinois.
[Dan Hope]
Yeah, I'm not quite there yet on Illinois. And granted, you know, hand up, I had Illinois 4-8 in my preseason record projection. That does not look very good because I do not think, based on what we've seen from Illinois, that they're going to lose their next eight games in a row.
So it does appear that I gave Illinois nowhere near enough credit going into the season. I think Luke Altmyer has significantly exceeded my expectations of how well he's played so far this season. And so I do think, you know, certainly Illinois has moved itself into firmly in that middle of the pack with the opportunity to keep rising based on the way it's played so far this year.
To your point, if they can beat Penn State this weekend, then we really do have to start taking Illinois seriously. I'm still kind of in a wait-and-see approach on seeing how this weekend goes before I'm ready to put Illinois up into that top group. Because while I do think Nebraska's better this year than they've been, they're still Nebraska.
This is still a team that for the past seven, eight years, whatever it is, has just not been able to finish out close games, and that's exactly what happened again on Friday. You said they played a good game. I think they did for a lot of a game.
But in overtime, they certainly did not play well.
[Andy Anders]
40 yards short of a first down is a pretty sad way to end it.
[Dan Hope]
Yeah, I need to see Nebraska actually go and win one of those kind of games before I can say they're a team to watch yet. I mean, the three teams they played before Illinois were not good teams. And so I do think Nebraska's better than it's been.
I think Dylan Raiola has certainly made them a much more dynamic team than they've been in quite some time, but those are still two teams that I'm kind of taking a wait-and-see approach on right now until they play more Big Ten games. We have a bigger sample size to go off of. You mentioned USC and Michigan.
I think for me, when I was thinking about who's the number three team in the conference, those are the other two teams that were at top of mind for me. And if USC had held on and won that game over Michigan, I would have had USC at number three in my rankings because I think you talk about that offensive firepower. I think USC is right there with Ohio State and Oregon as a top three team in the conference in terms of what they can do offensively with Miller Moss at quarterback, some of the dynamic weapons they have in the passing game like Zachariah Branch and Deuce Robinson.
Woody Marks has done well running the ball. And so I think USC is another team that has, at least until Saturday, had exceeded my expectations for what I expected from them. Now, I think they got exposed a bit against Michigan in terms of their ability to play with the kind of physicality that you need to win consistently in the Big Ten.
And I think that's what you saw against Michigan is they got beat up in the trenches. They lost the war on the ground. And that's pretty clearly how you lost when you only gave up 32 passing yards.
And so I think that's going to be the question for USC. You think about that Penn State game coming up a week and a half from now. Can Penn State use that same blueprint that Michigan did to beat USC by attacking them on the ground game and just out-physicaling USC?
I think that game is going to be very telling for whether USC is a legitimate contender in the Big Ten this year or if they're not quite ready to be that in this new conference. And so I come out of that USC-Michigan game feeling to some degree like that game almost told us more about USC than it did about Michigan because Michigan still has the same problem that we talked about going into that game. They do not have any semblance of an effective passing game.
And I think the biggest thing that enabled Michigan to win this game is the fact that they started out fast. They never fell into a hole. Because I think where I see this Michigan team having problems, we already saw this Michigan team have problems against Texas, is if it falls into a hole, this is not a team that's built to come back because of its lack of a passing attack.
And so I think Michigan, you know, they still have that glaring weakness to where they shouldn't beat Oregon or Ohio State. They really shouldn't. Now, the fact that they did win this game when I think a lot of people were counting them out, I think that does tell you, okay, this is still a team that knows how to win.
They still have that winning pedigree and knowing how to win big games through experience. Because I think you felt like some of that had walked out the door when you lost Jim Harbaugh, when you lost all those guys who went to the NFL after last season. I think after that Texas game, at least I kind of wondered, like, did they kind of lose that that they had the last few years in terms of just that ability to win big games and knowing what it took to win those kind of games in the clutch.
And I think they proved on Saturday that they still have some of that. You know, this team is not as good as it was last year when it won the national championship by any stretch. But they still showed that, you know, they can win that tough Big Ten game.
They certainly took a huge step forward running the ball. I think with Kalel Mullings emerging as their number one running back, I think that was a step forward since we still haven't really seen Donovan Edwards become the kind of player that he's been hyped up to be. You know, we saw, you know, the defense certainly played fairly well in that game.
You know, Will Johnson making the big play of the pick six. Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant doing a lot of damage in the trenches as we've expected them to do all year. And so I think Michigan showed on Saturday they're a team that can't be written off.
I would pick Ohio State to beat Michigan right now. I would pick Oregon to beat Michigan right now. But they did show that we can't just write them off yet just because Jim Harbaugh is gone and Connor Stallions is gone.
[Andy Anders]
The tough thing, again, for me in evaluating that game, evaluating both those teams too, is I don't know exactly how good LSU is. Therefore, I don't know exactly how good USC is. Therefore, I don't know exactly how good Michigan is.
It's like we're still in this early phase of the season where, yes, we have some intel now. Yes, we've seen these teams play. But, like, how impressed should I be with this USC victory?
I think USC could be a really good team for the reasons you mentioned. They have a lot of weapons on the offensive end. The defense seems to have figured some things out.
But how much does it stick? I've had a lot of reservations, especially with their defense, in year one under a new coordinator. We saw it at Ohio State.
It usually takes a year to stick with the new defensive schemes and these things. So I'm definitely not going to write off Michigan. And the thing also is they have a few easier games coming up.
Washington, Minnesota at home in the little brown jug. You get a couple wins under your belt in conference play off of that USC victory. Roll into your bye week with some momentum.
They do have to go on the road to Illinois later in October, which, again, if Illinois sustains the level it's played at so far, that could be a test. But, again, like you said, not picking Michigan to beat Ohio State. They definitely are showing they can still run the ball.
They can still play defense. They can still do some of those core things that they've built their program on over the years. But if you can't figure out a passing attack, if you can't have some sort of balance on offense, I don't think you stand much of a chance against the real halves of the conference when you play them.
And so for Michigan, they need to start developing those things. And for me, definitely still a team that I have my eyes on, but because I'm uncertain about both them and USC, it's hard for me to tell exactly where I placed them in the conference as a result of that. But I think right now it's probably safe to put them in kind of that Penn State mix for the number three spot with USC as some of these other teams throughout the conference are rising.
And speaking of that, Dan, what's a team right now that we haven't mentioned yet that is really sticking out to you? Some outfits have definitely made a little bit of headway here. Maybe some surprises too in the conference.
[Dan Hope]
Got to go with Kurt Cignetti and the boys over there in Bloomington, man. The Indiana Hoosiers. You know, I said it before the season, I thought Indiana was not getting enough credit.
I mean, there were some rankings I saw, preseason odds I saw, but it had Indiana at the very bottom of the conference. And I said it before the year, I thought Indiana was better than that. I thought this was an Indiana team that would make it to a bowl game.
Now I wish I had been even more bold because now I look at Indiana's schedule. I look at the way they're playing and say, this could be an eight, nine win team. Like I really believe that the way they're playing so far.
I think, you know, Kurt Cignetti is a guy, I mean, you saw it from his first introduction at the basketball game in Indiana. It was like he was Jim Trestle calling a shot against Michigan. He says, you know, we're going to beat Purdue and we're going to go beat Ohio state, Michigan too.
And I still don't think Indiana is going to beat Ohio state and Michigan. I do like their chances of beating Purdue based on what we've seen from a Boilermakers this year. But the way they're playing, I think they look like very much a strong middle of the pack, big 10 team that is going to continue to make some noise this year.
Granted, they haven't played a whole lot of competition yet. Their only big 10 game so far is against UCLA, which is a team that I think is very much near, near the bottom of the conference right now. But to go across the country to a Rose Bowl and win 42 to 13, that still makes a statement.
And I think what's been so impressive about this Indiana team so far is all four games they've played, they have beaten their opponents. I mean, it has been dominance week in and week out. And that's just not something that we're accustomed to seeing from Indiana.
Even, I mean, this is an Indiana team that almost lost to Akron a year ago. And so, you know, just to see them going in and just stamping out their teams, they're supposed to go beat. But the tougher competition is certainly coming for Indiana now, but they're a team for me that, you know, has, has impressed me.
And I think they're, they're one of those teams, like even when you think about it from Ohio state's perspective, Ohio state plays them one week before Michigan. I think Indiana is asserting itself as one of those teams, but nobody's going to really want to play them because they're, they're showing they're not going to be afraid of a challenge. They're, they're going to come ready to play.
And they've got a quality team. Curtis Rourke has been one of the best quarterbacks in the big 10 so far this year, again, still early to where they haven't played enough competition where it's hard to gauge exactly what's realistic for them. But, you know, again, I mean, I think just to say conservatively that Indiana can go four and four, the rest of the way and get an eight win season, to me, that feels very realistic for the Hoosiers right now.
[Andy Anders]
Yeah, beyond I, I think they're capable of even 10 wins. And, you know, you, you look at Michigan and Ohio state and you say, well, I think the other games are winnable. If you get to a certain level of play, look, a great head coach makes such a real difference with a team.
I mean, especially at the college level, I think the impact of a great head coach declines more as you raise up because once you get to the NFL, you know, guys are professionals, et cetera. You can have a great team that lofts a less great coach. And it's happened in college too, but it's Kurt Cignetti brought a, just he's got aura, man.
I love hearing him in press conferences. I love that us against the world mentality that he has. I love not being afraid to take the big shots and say, let's go beat Ohio state.
Let's why not strive for greatness? What, what do you have to lose anywhere in college football, but at Indiana too, where, I mean, you're, you're in the Midwest, there's, there's good talent around that you can pick off and they've done well in the portal, obviously he's doing something there that I think is very interesting. And he's got a proven track record as a coach.
He's been successful wherever he's gone. And a guy that really, I just, I just love Kurt Cignetti. That's all.
I'm a big Kurt Cignetti fan. I have been since I saw him at big 10 media days. And he was just as confident there as he was at that basketball game.
Not ashamed to say that, you know, he wants to go out and beat the heavyweights of the conference and you know, more power to him. I'd say I'm with you. Indiana's that next team.
I'm kind of eyeing up another one that I think's kind of impressed me so far as Rutgers Rutgers has gotten off to a strong start to the season. They went on the road and beat Virginia tech this week. Never an easy place to play there in Virginia tech, you know, inter Sandman, all the tradition that comes with that.
They have one of the best running backs in the big 10. And I think he's probably got an argument to be the third best after Travion Henderson and Quinn Sean Judkins. There's definitely some guys in that mix, but I really like Kyle Monongai.
I think they've definitely, their defense has continued to improve and take steps under Greg Shiana, who obviously has that defensive background. Ethan Kaliakmanis is an interesting case, you know, and I, I'm, I think that's maybe the number one thing for Rutgers going forward is exactly how good is he going to be throughout the season? We seen him have ups and downs, whether it was at Minnesota or whether at Rutgers, where he's, he shows why he can be a really good quarterback in stretches, but then he'll have stretches of not so good play.
And you need him to take that next step. I think for the team to take that next step and, and be more balanced on offense around Monongai, who again, is just such a fun back to watch. And I think Rutgers has a really fun team this year as a result.
[Dan Hope]
I think Indiana and Rutgers kind of have a similar vibe to them to where they're two teams that have typically been cellar dwellers in the big 10. And it feels like both are on the upswing this year, specifically. Greg Sciano and Kurt Cignetti have some similar vibes in the way they kind of approach things in their programs and the way they're kind of elevating expectations for their respective programs.
And, and yeah, I think for Rutgers to go, you know, this weekend, go get a win against Virginia Tech. I think that was a big win for them, especially coming on the road. I think, you know, if I was pitting those teams against each other head to head right now, I would take Indiana over Rutgers.
And I think the biggest reason for that is because I think Curtis Rourke's a better quarterback than Nathan Kelly. And so that's why I would side toward, you know, Indiana over Rutgers. If I was ranking those teams, but you know, Rutgers is a team again, they have a very favorable schedule.
So where you, you really, you look at Rutgers's schedule. And there's really not any game on there that isn't winnable because they don't play Ohio state. They don't play Oregon.
They don't play Penn state. They don't play Michigan. So I'm not sitting here saying, I think they're going to run the table, but I'm saying, again, it's, it's one of those teams you look at it and go, okay, for them to get to eight to nine wins.
It feels like there is a very realistic path there because, you know, I think you look at their schedule, like other than maybe USC, like there's no team that's going to be like a clear favorite over Rutgers right now on that schedule. And so I think they're another team that's, you know, certainly intriguing this year. I think Indiana and Rutgers are, are kind of the two teams that a lot of people are kind of rooting for in this conference because they have a history of, of not having a whole lot of success.
I think they're in some ways kind of a lovable underdogs of this conference, especially given the fact that, you know, you have seen conference expansion, you know, Rutgers 10 years ago, they were like the new kids on the block, but now they're like an established team and a conference that's got these four schools from the West coast. And so I think those are two teams that are kind of easy to root for, but you kind of want to see how successful seasons, because they haven't had a ton of them in their football histories in general, let alone recent football histories. You mentioned Kyle Mnungai being very much in that thick of conversation for top running backs in the big 10.
I think another guy who certainly put himself in that conversation is Caleb Johnson at Iowa. He is having a monster year so far, currently leading the conference with 685 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in just four games. And that makes Iowa another team that is dangerous.
You talk about coming to Ohio stadium next week to play Ohio state. Now, much like Michigan, they still don't have much of a passing game at all. And that that's going to be their potential downfall.
When you think about them playing teams like Ohio state, the other top teams in the big 10 with having a very weak passing game, that could be a tall task for the Hawkeyes, but their offense is clearly better than it has been the last couple of years. And the big reason for that is Caleb Johnson is that running game. They're showing that they can be very effective, moving the ball on the ground.
And that's something, you know, last year, they were just horrible in every aspect of offense. Now they're kind of a one dimensional offense, but they at least have one dimension that's working. So they're better in that regard.
And they're still a great defensive team. They do have that one loss to Iowa state, but in terms of, you know, the conference race, they started out their big 10 season with a win over Minnesota this past week. And so they're another team, you know, I have them, you know, below that top group of teams because their passing offense is still a big weakness, but, you know, they're another team and we'll be talking about a more a week from now when we're previewing Ohio state versus Iowa, you know, they're a team that can be dangerous in any game because of their defense and because of their running game.
[Andy Anders]
Yeah. I mean, if, if you are able to control a game with those two elements, you then control the clock, right? When a time of possession battle and all of a sudden, you know, the juggernaut you're trying to take out that would have gotten 14 possessions in a game only gets 11.
And now it's like, they just have less opportunities to try and assert themselves as the better team. That's the danger of playing a team that has a defense and running game like Iowa does. Kane McNamara.
I really think at quarterback, it's, it's been an interesting career for him thus far. He's just, he doesn't scare you. And especially in this Iowa offense, that's blacked those sort of receiving weapons year in and year out and hasn't shown that passing game, but Hey, look, anything better than one of the worst offenses in the country is an improvement for Iowa this year.
And I think they're happy to have, I know Kirk Ferentz is certainly happy to have at least that running game aspect back. And Caleb Johnson is averaging 8.4 yards per carry. They're going to work horse him and maybe mix in some other guys like Kamari Moulton a little bit, but to not only have the production, but have the efficiency I think is always important when you're talking about a ground game.
And that'll be an interesting test for an Ohio state team that we've seen, you know, defensive tackle kind of depth, kind of a question mark. If you don't have Tyleek Williams back yet, that could be something to watch for of, okay, can you hold up on the interior against a physical team like that and, and not let them control the game by winning the line of scrimmage and running the ball. That'll be a good test for Ohio state.
And I think Iowa is like, you, you've kind of forgotten about Iowa because it just feels like they are what they are so often under Kirk Ferentz with the defense and the offense being night and day and all this stuff, kind of a Jekyll and Hyde thing. And, and, and Indiana Rutgers, even Illinois, like we've mentioned are kind of those new teams on the block. And obviously the West coast teams that are new to the conference, kind of the new teams on the block where you're maybe it's just more catching to see them in the standings.
But Iowa always has a really, again, strong defense, strong running game is returned. And so where they stack up in that next tier of teams is, is really interesting. And I'll be curious to see exactly how it shakes out for them over the course of the season.
[Dan Hope]
If we look specifically at the nine teams that Ohio state is going to play in big 10 play and, and rank those to rank those opponents based on the difficulty, those games are going to present to the Buckeyes. And we can certainly factor in home versus road, where it is on the schedule, all that into this conversation. I think it's pretty clear.
We both agree that that road game at Oregon is still what we have circled as the toughest game for the Buckeyes in the regular season. Andy, as it stands right now, what do you view as the second toughest game for the Buckeyes in big 10 play?
[Andy Anders]
It's between two games. But, and I think you, if you know, Ohio state schedule well enough, you know, which two, I think what I'm going to say is at Penn state only because I just think it's on the road and Penn state's, I think a better team overall based on what I've seen right now, more complete than Michigan. And I'm kind of removing the emotional element from this.
And it's kind of the same thing I did back when we did our win confidence rankings before the season. I had the Penn state game as a less confident win than the Michigan game. So I'm going to stay with that because I think my assumptions about both teams so far have been kind of accurate that Penn state's better and more complete.
And that game being on the road makes a difference, but I certainly couldn't blame anyone who wanted to put Michigan number two or even number one, when you're talking about a gate, a school where the rivalry is that important and Michigan's won three straight times.
[Dan Hope]
I look at it very much the same way you do, because I do think Penn state has been more complete team. I think that, you know, going to, you know, Beaver stadium adds another element in there. And it's hard to picture a team that's having as little success, passing the ball as Michigan is right now coming into Ohio stadium and beating Ohio state yet.
Like if we're still talking like wind confidence here, I'd still say I'm more confident. Ohio state will be Penn state and Ohio state will beat Michigan. And a lot of it is that emotional aspect of it, of, you know, Ohio state has consistently beaten Penn state the past.
What is it? Eight years, nine years. I don't know.
[Andy Anders]
It's 2016.
[Dan Hope]
Yeah. So eight years, Ohio state has beaten, or I guess it's seven years. This would be the eighth year that Ohio state is looking to beat Penn state in a row.
James Franklin has a bad track record in those big games. Those things just give me confidence that Ohio state is going to go in there and win that game. Whereas Michigan, you still got that looming cloud of the past three years.
And I think again, if USC had beaten Michigan on Saturday, I would go the other way on this, but the fact that Michigan has proven it can win a big game, even though I think Ohio state is a lot better than USC, the fact that Michigan has proven it can go win a big game. It can go win in the fourth quarter, despite its lack of a passing game. That makes me still put Michigan as the second toughest team, second toughest opponent in big 10 play.
Even though I think it's very close between Michigan and Penn state. Now the question is who's next, Andy, who would you have next as the fourth toughest game for the Buckeyes?
[Andy Anders]
Give me Kurt Cignetti, baby. Trap game at home, right before Michigan. Indiana is going to be rolling in there with some confidence.
I think having knocked off some other, at least mid tier big 10 opponents before that, you know, if you keep the momentum of this, of these first four games that they've collected it, they're going to roll you into that game with a ton of confidence. They're going to want to pull the big upset against the, the class of the conference. I know Kurt Cignetti is going to have them hype for that game.
So I think that's the one that I have the least confidence in now after Oregon, Penn state and Michigan.
[Dan Hope]
I can't really argue with that. The way that I, the way that Indiana has played this first month of the season. I mean, I do think that, you know, they, out of that second tier of big 10 teams on the schedule, I think they might be as capable as anyone of challenging Ohio state.
But personally, I do have them fifth here. I'm going to go with Iowa at number four, because I do think, you know, we talk about a step up in defensive competition this week against Michigan state. I think Ohio state is going to face another one next week against Iowa.
And the fact that Iowa is running the ball at an elite level, it creates the possibility of weirdness in this game. Like you mentioned, if Iowa can control the clock, if it's defense can play really well and make some, some big plays on that side of the ball. I don't expect Iowa to come into Ohio stadium and score 40 points by any stretch, but if they can make it a low scoring game, if they can force Ohio state's offense to make mistakes, I think they have the potential to make that game interesting.
And so I have Iowa fourth. And then I, you know, going into the year, I had Nebraska fifth. I'm now dropping Nebraska down to six.
I'm putting Indiana in at five. Nebraska is still not a team that I, I think you can totally overlook either, especially with the Dylan Rayola factor, but the fact that Ohio state is going to have an extra week to prepare for that game after the Oregon game. And also it's a game where, you know, Indiana, you talk about it.
Indiana does have that kind of trap game element to it. Iowa does too with Oregon coming the week after Nebraska. You could say that with Penn state the next week, but I don't because I just think Ohio state's going to be really motivated to make a statement against Dylan.
Yeah.
[Andy Anders]
Nebraska for me is, is next on the list just because I think they're the most complete team after Iowa with, you know, I have them behind Indiana, Nebraska. I again, they've impressed me so far outside of the inability to close in that overtime game and Ohio state is going to be motivated there. Dylan Rayola.
That's an interesting one for me after that, it's, you know, kind of a wash of teams. You want to say what's left at Northwestern Purdue at Michigan state. All three of those teams have kind of dropped, I think below that mid tier of the big 10, maybe Michigan state.
I think is probably the next least confident out of those three that are left then this week, it is on the road and it is a team that at least has shown again, some balance on defense and some progress under a first year head coach, Jonathan Smith. I just don't think Michigan state long-term will be as good as those other teams we've talked about thus far that are left on Ohio state schedule. However, again, first test on the road, there is something to be said about that.
And I do think they're not going to be like among the worst teams in the conference, but sort of the next level above that maybe. So I don't know if Michigan state's next for you too.
[Dan Hope]
Yeah. I don't even think, I mean, for me, it's not even wishy-washy to me. I think Michigan state is very clearly the next team on the list.
I mean, I think Northwestern and Purdue are the two that really don't scare me at all. Yeah. Purdue has the spoiler maker history, but you know, you just look at how Purdue's played so far this year, they lost 66 to seven to Notre Dame.
They also lost by 17 points this past weekend to Oregon state. They've looked like the worst team in the big 10 so far this year. And so with that game being at, at Ohio stadium, that's a game that I look at and I would expect it to be a blowout.
And I feel largely the same way against Northwestern. I mean, this is a team that's two and two right now with losses to Duke and Washington. And, you know, I think that's a game where I don't even think Northwestern is going to really even have a home field advantage because it's going to be their first game playing in Wrigley, at least this season.
And Ohio state has so many fans in the Chicago area. I expect half of that stadium, if not more to be Ohio state fans. And so we've seen it at Northwestern, the potential for weird weather out there in the windy city.
I'm sure that's possible there in, in Wrigley field, but you know, those are the two games I look at. I would put Northwestern eight and Purdue nine because Northwestern is on the road and the Wrigley factor adds the potential for some wackiness. But those are the two games that I look at.
Like those are the two. I'm like very confident in Ohio state winning this week. I'm confident that Ohio state will win, but I don't necessarily expect it to be an easy cruise control kind of win for the Buckeyes.
[Andy Anders]
I think I'd agree with those assessments overall. Purdue, like you said, looked really bad the first few weeks of the season and their schedule leading up to Ohio state is also pretty brutal outside of playing Northwestern. They've got a few tough games, so they're probably going to only be entering that just the way the schedule winds up.
It's very likely they only enter that game with two wins at most. And so Purdue's confidence pretty shot at that point in the season. I don't think this is a year I'm expecting a spoiler maker bid from Purdue, but then again, when they're unranked is when they're most dangerous.
We found that out over the years. So maybe a little eyebrow razor there, but I think the one I'm most confident in that's left for the Buckeyes, it's at home, it's against the worst team left on the schedule probably. Where do you stand as far as the Big 10 championship game, Dan, and who do you expect to be the two teams playing for the Big 10 title at the end of the season now that we've had almost a month of Intel here?
[Dan Hope]
Yeah, no change there. In my preseason prediction, I expect Ohio state and Oregon to meet in Indy and I expect Ohio state to win. How about you?
[Andy Anders]
Same.
[Dan Hope]
That was simple. That was easy. We could talk a lot about the Big 10 as a whole, and certainly that's something we're going to continue to talk about all year long.
But we don't want to look past this week's opponent because again, it's going to be the toughest test of the season to date for Ohio state, whether it's going to actually be a tough test, we will see. But certainly I think on both sides of the ball, Michigan state is a team that's more capable of testing the Buckeyes than we've seen for many of the first three teams, the group of five teams that Ohio state played. I think, you know, offensively, you know, Aiden Childs, this is a guy, he's got a big arm.
He's a really good athlete. He's going to test the Buckeyes vertically and he's going to test them with his legs. And I, so this is going to be the first real test of Ohio state's defensive discipline, especially, you know, coming off that Marshall game where Ohio state did look a little vulnerable against the quarterback run, still only allowed Stoner to run for 24 yards.
But I think, you know, that's something that adds a variable, especially when you look at Child's ability, you know, to throw the deep ball. And so, you know, I think, you know, we, we heard Denzel Burke say last week that, you know, he, he's been looking forward to a bigger game because they want to see where they're at. This might not quite be a big game.
We might not really know exactly where his defense is at until Oregon, but I think this will at least test this defense more than anyone has so far.
[Andy Anders]
There's an element of, I guess, uncertainty to it, right? Is Child's has that talent to really put you into a predicament, not just with his legs, but also with his arm, the strength he has the ability to stretch the field vertically again, just seven interceptions, right? It just, it hits you.
And that's a, that's a big number leading all big 10 quarterbacks there. But he has also shown that he, you know, he can light up the skies. If, if the throws are there, I don't expect them to be because the secondary is still the best in college football to me.
And I think they're going to put him in scenarios where if he wants to take those deep shots, he's going to have to hold the ball. And maybe that allows the pass rushers to tee off on them a little better than they did this week against Marshall. But that running threat will always be something that in the back pocket hurts defenses.
You talk about Ohio state over the years has struggled with mobile quarterbacks defenses in general, just struggle with mobile quarterbacks. It's a body you normally don't account for in a defensive scheme. If you have to take an extra guy away to account for it.
Now you're hurting in other places. That's always been the difficulty of defending a mobile quarterback. And if it's a design run, you get an extra blocker because quarterbacks don't normally block on run plays.
And so it changes the math and makes it hard for a defense. And that's why it's such a test of discipline. When you face a guy like Aiden Childs, who can hurt you with his legs.
And it then also opens throwing lanes. If you have the ability to take advantage of that. Now, you're going to have to be more efficient through the air to do so.
The interceptions, the completion percentage isn't great from Aiden and you balance it out with a running game. That's been solid, but not spectacular. Right?
You are kind of middle of the pack nationally in the, in the key rushing categories, yards per game, yards per carry, those sorts of things. Kind of in that 60, 70th range. And some of those across the country, when you're talking about being middle of the pack, I don't think that's enough to threaten Ohio state's defense.
Certainly if Tyleek Williams is healthy, I think Ohio state also maybe gets a little more up for this game. Maybe the heat had some impact last week and Marshall averaged less than three yards per carry on the ground. Like we we've talked about what Ohio state didn't do well defensively in that game.
And you sit back and you say, well, it was still good. Like what all they did in the first two weeks was dominate and they shut out Western Michigan and Western Michigan gets practically nothing anywhere, wherever they went on offense. And you have a few things like, Oh, the three tech depth is a concern when Tyleek Williams is out.
Oh, the linebackers didn't look great. Like it's really nitpicks at this point with this defense. And I still like expect them like on a bad day, they're still going to hold this Michigan state team to less than 20 points.
I think they're still on paper, the best defense in college football. And you expect them to play more to that standard. Maybe now that you're on the road and the surface temperature of the turf is in 145 degrees and you have some of those other elements, even if Ryan day is not going to use that as an excuse.
I think it's fair for us to sit here and say, maybe there are some other factors that contribute to some of the Marshall defensive quote unquote struggles. When again, Marshall, two touchdowns, eight punts, like it wasn't that bad as, as we sit here and talk about it.
[Dan Hope]
Well, it's like we talked about before, right? But in those kinds of games, the narrative of a game gets written first quarter, sometimes first possession. So Marshall marches down the field on the first drive, everybody panics.
And then you can't go back from it. You know, if Ohio state dominated for three quarters, I mean you give up a couple of sessions in the fourth quarter, everybody just kind of is tuned out by then nobody really cares. But when it happens at the start of a game and you have the, that brief moment of tension of like, Oh, is Ohio state going to lose to Marshall?
Then it's like, it just stains the, the entire game. And so, you know, granted you do have to say to, you know, the second half, part of a reason why Ohio state was much better in the second half was because stoner all got hurt. And then it seemed like once stoner all got hurt, Marshall kind of gave up like offensively.
I mean, the last drive, they didn't even attempt to run plays. They just kneel the ball down to run the clock out. And so I do think that the second half improvement was a little bit misleading in that regard, but to your point, I mean, they gave up two touchdown drives.
One of those touchdown drives came with Jayden Fielding, kicking the ball out of bounds, which so, which effectively gave Marshall 15 free yards. And then Caden Curry getting a targeting penalty, which gave Marshall another 15 free yards. So there was really one really bad drive for the defense.
It was the first drive of a game and then the rest of the game, they were fine. So yeah, I don't expect Michigan state to come in and light up Ohio state's defense by any means. I do think Aiden Childs could make a couple of big plays that set up Michigan, you know, either go for long touchdowns or set up Michigan to score touchdowns.
I think Aiden Childs is that kind of player of it. I think we could see him make a couple of those kinds of big plays, but maybe we haven't seen Ohio state get beat by yet this year, but I also expect that there are going to be several opportunities for Ohio state to, to turn the ball over in this game to intercept passes because of what we've seen from Aiden Childs so far of a season. I think when I think about what I want to see from Ohio state's defense this, this week, that's the big thing I want to see.
We, there was a lot of talk this off season about creating more turnovers, intercepting more passes. We saw it in week one, then it's faded out the last two weeks when I think about what I really want to see from Ohio state's defense this week, you're going up against a quarterback who's averaging almost two interceptions a game. I want to see the Buckeyes capitalize on that, you know, force three turnovers, you know, maybe you turn one of them into a defensive touchdown.
If Ohio state can do that and then avoid turning the ball over on the other side of the ball, then I think Ohio state will win this game very comfortably and it will extend its streak that currently sits at seven straight wins by 20 plus points against Michigan state.
[Andy Anders]
That's where I'm at with it. You want to see this secondary intercept passes and show why they are the best in college football. I do think some of the turnover stuff, you know, Marshall really came out with a good game plan that got the ball out of the quarterback's hands quickly.
Wasn't a lot of slow developing stuff where he was going to have to force a wall deep. Wasn't a lot of stuff that made him sit in the pocket and maybe you get a strip sack fumbles or fumbles. If you take care of the football well as a ball carrier, if you're Marshall, then that's, you can definitely force fumbles as a defense.
That's part of it. But for me, you know, the turnovers, you're going to have a better shot in this game. If Michigan is Michigan state is going to take those deep shots and try to use child's strengths and let them extend plays.
That's when you get those opportunities for turnovers. So to your point, yes, I think this is a game where the defense needs to come up and take advantage of a scheme that's going to allow potentially more turnovers. And maybe Michigan state comes out and tries to do what Marshall did and just do a lot of quick hitting stuff.
I don't think that's going to be sustainable for them, but I'm not sure what will be in general. So exactly what Michigan state allows in the scheme is going to dictate some of that, but I expect them to give Ohio state some opportunities to create defensive big plays. And then can you capitalize on that?
Flipping sides of the ball to Michigan state's defense. We talked about it before. This is a balanced group and their defensive front six, because they run a 4-2-5 as well.
Their defensive front six has some playmakers in it. Jordan Turner, linebacker transfer from Wisconsin, leads the team in tackles, tackles for loss and sacks, 22-6-3, respectively. They get after the quarterback.
They have gotten after the quarterback really well this season, second nationally in sacks. And they have 15 of them on the year. Two main guys to watch for there.
Turner, like I said, Chris Bogle at defensive end, three sacks on the season, five tackles for loss. Turner has six and three in those categories. So they've got some guys in that front six that can really create some chaos and get downhill, try to disrupt an offense.
And how does Ohio state respond to that? Do they have what they need in pass protection to give Will Howard that time? Maybe we see him extend some plays like we saw in the first couple of weeks to buy time when he needs to.
And then, obviously, does the offensive line sustain the gains they made in those first three weeks against a defensive line that actually has maybe someone who can hit you back a little bit and test, have you really improved as run blockers? Do we see the continued effort from the tight ends and receivers? Because I think that's been a big, important part of Ohio State's rushing game improvements, outside of, again, having maybe the two best running backs in college football.
That always helps. But your receivers, your tight ends, do they continue to take the fight to somebody who can fight back a little harder? Everything gets more difficult with this defense, and that's a good thing for Ohio State because you're going to see if those improvements are real.
So get the ground game established, protect Will Howard. I think those are the two main things that I'm looking for against a Michigan State defense that's pretty well balanced and disruptive as far as Ohio State's offense, kind of what I'm watching for there.
[Dan Hope]
Ohio State is favored by 24 points in this matchup. Andy, what's your score prediction?
[Andy Anders]
I've been mulling it over this week. I frankly think after the Marshall game, after hearing Ryan Day and how unsatisfied this team is, you can go a couple different ways with that. But the fact is this team is so veteran, has so much veteran leadership.
I think they're going to eat that message from the coach. I think they're going to want to make a statement, especially the defense in this game after they hear the talk about them. They're going to hear some of the concerns and it's going to be like kind of that, did you forget kind of game?
Did you forget what we have over here? That said, Aiden Childs off schedule, I think makes a thing or two happen, like you said. I'm going to go 45-10 Ohio State.
Defense looks great, but there's some fluky touchdown that happens. And either a special teams or another defensive lapse, just somewhere along the way that leads to a field goal. But Ohio State continues to, I just think there's kind of a stop.
It's a boiling point for Michigan State's defense. They've looked really good against some worse opponents, but Ohio State's the best they've played. I think they get a couple stops in there, but overall Ohio State looks dominant again on offense too.
And 45-10 is what I have.
[Dan Hope]
Yeah, this feels like a conservative prediction, but I'm going to go 41-17. I think, you know, if Ohio State can make those big plays on defense and give the offense some short fields, I think, you know, a 50 burger is not out of the question. We've seen Ohio State do it to Michigan State before, but I am going to give Michigan State's defense for respect based on how it's played so far this year to save it.
I don't think that this offense is going to be able to move the ball down the field as easily as it's often been able to in non-conference play. And so because of that, I'm only going to give Ohio State 41 in this game, but I did consider going a little bit higher in the 40s. And I am going 17 because of what I said.
I do think that we're going to see Aiden Childs, you know, make a couple of big plays that lead to a couple of Michigan State touchdowns. My prediction does feel conservative going, you know, right on the number here with the 24 point spread, but that's what I'm going with. You know, we will not be surprised if it ends up being a little bit more lopsided, but I think Michigan State has looked good enough to me that they can at least make it semi-competitive.
However, I do not think they will make it competitive enough to snap the streak of 20 plus point wins by the Buckeyes.
[Andy Anders]
I just think overall, I'm excited to finally watch a game where you don't have to put that note of, well, they still haven't played anyone. It's like, at least now you get to see it against the Big Ten team on the road. Who's got a few wins under their belt.
And even if there's tougher tests to come, this is again, great ramp for Ohio State as we really find out, is this team going to live up to the hype of national championship expectations?
[Dan Hope]
Yeah. And I think that's an important thing to, to remember going into this week's game is it's a Big Ten game. It's a first road game of the year.
Everybody's going to look at those first three games and try to view them through the prism of, okay, how does this translate to playing against Oregon or Penn state or Michigan? But I think now it becomes much more about one game at a time. You just got to go up there and do what you got to do to win the game.
They start becoming more and more matchup games now. And so, you know, what you do against Michigan state might be different than what you do against Iowa. What you do against Oregon, what you do about against Nebraska and Penn state and so on and so forth.
And so I think the important thing for Ohio state in this game isn't making a statement to the CFP committee or anything like that. It isn't being good enough to beat Oregon or Michigan or Georgia or Texas. It's just about going on the road, getting your first Big Ten win of the season and, and keeping things rolling from there.
So I think the goal for Ohio state this week is to just take care of business, shore up some of the things that, you know, did pop up in the Marshall game and really try to start a Big Ten playoff on the right foot, because we know, especially over the next couple of weeks, it's only going to get tougher from here. So the stronger you can start out against Michigan state and Big Ten play this week, the better you're going to be positioned going into the second month of the season. We will be up there in East Lansing this weekend, bringing you coverage of Ohio state versus Michigan state on 11warriors.com.
So stay tuned all week for full coverage of Ohio state versus Michigan state and the start of Big Ten play for the Buckeyes. And we'll be back next week for another episode of Real Pod Wednesdays.