The Auto Market Brief, powered by Cox Automotive, breaks down the latest trends and forecasts shaping the automotive industry. The show is hosted by Cox Automotive Executive Analyst Erin Keating, coupling years of experience translating data and trends with the data and industry insights of the largest automotive services and technology provider.
Joined by other Cox Automotive experts and outside guests, you’ll get data-driven insights and industry outlooks from some of the industry’s leading voices.
Welcome to The Auto market Brief from Cox Automotive. Each episode, our experts and special guests break down the latest trends, insights, and news shaping the automotive market. We'll give you the information that truly matters so you can make smarter decisions and drive your business forward. Welcome back. I'm your host, Erin Keating.
Erin Keating:On today's episode, we are going to discuss, Jeremy and I, the National Association for Business Economics, economic policy conference that we just both attended. What a mouthful there. But really interesting event for those of you that don't know, they do quite a few annual events. This one is really interesting. It's in DC, and we actually get a lot of exposure to policymakers, to Fed Board governors, so on and so forth, White House officials and things like this.
Erin Keating:And so, a couple of the key takeaways that Jeremy and I are going to talk through in this conversation are, one big one was the next phase of economic stability and productivity and success is going to belong to those companies that can really execute amidst uncertainty. Growth opportunities remain significant. The success is going to depend on navigating the fiscal challenges that we have and pressures, the tech disruptions that we're seeing, the geopolitical competitiveness and nature of politics that are going on, and infrastructure limitations. So a lot of that was discussed last week. And specifically, one that was really great was Christine Lagarde, who, of course, is the president of the European Central Bank, brought just, you know, some of the outside looking in perspective around Europe's challenge.
Erin Keating:You know, they're they're no longer in crisis mode, so they're looking to see how they can build some long term stability and productivity growth. So that's what we're gonna lean on there. Today's episode, of course, focuses on what these shifts mean for the broader economy and how they impact industries like automotive. So to add more of that economic context and set the stage, let's start off as we usually do with the latest economic updates from our chief economist, Jeremy Robb. Welcome, Jeremy.
Jeremy Robb:Hey, thanks, Erin. Good to see you again. I know we were both at the NABE conference earlier this week, which was really great. And the fact that we got in and out of there without any weather impact was also a nice thing there. So that was, to your point, really great conference.
Jeremy Robb:It's the first time I had attended the policy conference, but I got a lot out of it. So, but yeah, there's a lot happening in the economy. Just about a week ago, we got preliminary reads on Q4 GDP growth in The United States, and that came out to be 1.4%. So that was what they called the preliminary read on that. We usually get three of them.
Jeremy Robb:It's the earliest one, you know, it takes a long time to get all this data going. But that read of 1.4% was well below what we had seen in Q3, which was about 4.4%. But really the key thing, if you haven't heard yet, was that Q4 four was dragged down by the government shutdown. Government's a substantial part of GDP growth. Their early estimates are that it reduced growth by about a point overall for q four.
Jeremy Robb:So without that drag, it would have been closer to 2.4%. What it likely means also is that we probably are going to see a bit of a pickup from that in Q1 of this year. That's kind of how that stuff works its way out. So we'll have to see what happens with that. But that was a little bit disappointing overall.
Jeremy Robb:But I think, you know, people had thought the government shutdown was going to have an impact too. So we also got a read on the PCE price index, which is really the Fed's preferred measure to measure prices. In Q4, it was up 2.8% year over year. That was a rise from 2.7%. Clearly quite a bit ahead of the Fed's 2% target reading.
Jeremy Robb:And if we look at just December itself, it was up at 2.9%. So still suggesting that we're seeing acceleration in some inflation metrics. That is not good for anybody in the economy that is looking for more Fed cuts. Overall, heard many Federal Reserve governors talking about that this week, which is really interesting, but inflation maybe not moving still in the right direction and if anything, going away from us.
Erin Keating:Yeah. I thought that was very interesting that they were because we heard from Waller, we heard from Cook, we heard from Goolsby, and then if others were listening, Marketplace or Kai Risdale spoke with Rafael Bostic who's leaving Atlanta. And you definitely can hear how they're thinking through inflation versus labor. And it feels like there's a lot of questioning out there about labor being structural versus being just a cyclical nature and do we need to address it versus inflation seemed to feel like it it kind of was pulling on all of them, maybe Waller less can less, but didn't you feel that was they were saying that inflation is still above target and they're still worried about it?
Jeremy Robb:Yeah. I thought actually hearing them talk about their outlooks for inflation, the economy, jobs, and all of that, especially Goolsby talked about the the transitory nature. You know, we think about back in 2022 when inflation was really high, and the Fed kept saying they thought inflation measures were gonna come down, and they didn't adjust their policy to that. Maybe they waited a little bit too long to do that. And that's why, you know, that kept inflation going stronger for longer than raising rates.
Jeremy Robb:And now specifically what he was talking about with Austin Goolsby was talking about on Tuesday morning, was trying to look through some of that. I think that's a really salient point when we think about the economy. And I actually talked about this yesterday with another group. But we think about last Friday, and then the Supreme Court's like ruling on tariffs and pulling that back some, and what tariffs have done to inflation, because we had inflation that was starting to come down for a couple of years. We had the tariffs implemented last year, which really turned the knob up a little bit on inflation.
Jeremy Robb:And I think that's why we're seeing that come through a little bit more now. But if we actually start to get a little bit of a lesser impact from the tariffs, and we will get through that reading when it kind of resets and because inflation, as we know, is always ongoing. Right? So once you kind of anniversary those impacts, you have less of a growth factor added into that. Anyway, my whole point is like, maybe there are some green shoots, if you will, towards the back half of this year with where inflation could go.
Jeremy Robb:And if that is the case, it might be beneficial for interest rate policy in The US. So anyway, that was really interesting too. And then the last data point just to talk about a little bit was that personal savings rate overall. And it declined down to 3.6% in December, and that's the lowest level we've seen since 2022. So unlikely that it goes a whole lot lower from there, but that's something that everybody has to pay attention to with consumers and the economy and consumer balance sheets and all of that.
Jeremy Robb:We're in tax refund season, you know, a lot of consumers use that money to pay off things, down payments on cars, if you will, things like that. Stuff that's near and dear to our hearts at Cox Automotive. The government's only produced data for two weeks so far on tax refund season, but the average tax refund is up 14%, even though our tracking of those refunds relative to where they normally are in the year is actually down a little bit. Meaning that I think we're a little bit behind in terms of the people that have filed their tax refunds, but the dollars are looking pretty good. It's great.
Jeremy Robb:We've said things like, I know we talk about Manheim values for used car indices and things like that. And if you're listening to this podcast, and you haven't heard us talk about vehicles and used wholesale prices, we usually see prices move a little bit higher in the spring, the spring bounce. It's all related to tax refund season. But what we're seeing this year is that prices have moved higher earlier and at a stronger rate than where they normally move. And that is the marketplace telling us they are seeing something or anticipating something out there, which is like a strong tax refund season coming back and being pretty strong for consumers and everything out there.
Erin Keating:Yeah. Well, when you talk about the expenditures and the savings rate, a couple of other things that sort of stood out to me from that conference last week. One, I'm forgetting which session it was, it might have been Goolsby. One of the questions was I thought pretty astute to say, you know, yes, there's spending, but with the savings rate going down, are we worried a bit and debt going up? Are we worried a bit about where that spending is coming from?
Erin Keating:Like, consumers going into debt and or drawing down savings to keep spending. So I thought that was an interesting point and would be curious your thoughts on that. But in addition to that, there's also a lot of talk around the k shaped economy and it being, I don't want to use as strong of a word as overblown. I don't know what you would say, But more talking about how the spending is pretty universal across, right? And so that we continue to really talk about the wealth effect and how everything's being held up by the top, you know, 10%, whatnot.
Erin Keating:But there was a couple of good really sessions, robust sessions where I was talking about how that might be a little bit more diversified than people are giving it credit for. And that that might be a different way to sort of hold in our head what the K shaped economy really looks like. So I'd be curious what your takeaway was from both of those discussions.
Jeremy Robb:Those are great points. I don't remember particularly the comment on the savings rate and that, but this would be my own comment about it, is the savings rate, I think the data that was reported was the December number. And you know, what happens in December, we have the holidays, people spend a lot of money, a lot of people go into debt a little bit at the end of the year. We usually see the highest amounts of delinquencies in the marketplace in January and February. We definitely saw that in January.
Jeremy Robb:It might continue in February. It might start to back off. It's a seasonality comes into play there. I think it goes hand in hand with the savings rate. So I actually kind of hope maybe it was something that happens more in December and then it backs off.
Jeremy Robb:The stuff on the spending that they talked about was fascinating to me. And it was actually a point I was going to bring up anyway, a little bit related, but different. They did totally note, I think it was Waller, but I can't remember off top of my head, that to your point, they're seeing spending be more universal, more broad based than a lot of the data that we've seen and we've talked about before, which made me wonder, I would be like, I'd like to see that data. Because I don't think I've seen that, you know? And I think it flies into face of what a lot of us think and have seen with other metrics in the economy.
Jeremy Robb:We know, we talk to car dealers out there, they will tell us that if Bitcoin and the market are strong, or if they fall off, they see traffic correlation very high, you know, on the So upside and on the downside into that lends itself to make you think the wealth effect is alive and well, and it's definitely impacting the higher ends, but their comments about the overall consumer and that kind of thing were really interesting. I thought one of the most interesting things I got from it, or two things, is one, we know the Fed operates on a lag, right? They're looking at data very far past. Even the GDP data that came out last week said that a lot of the growth in GDP was coming from investment spending, which is AI infrastructure and things like that. But the Fed governors talked about that really not coming into play yet with everything, that they thought a lot of the productivity gains already that are pretty high, I think the, it was almost 5% the last reading we had, were coming from things back implemented from the pandemic, you know, not any of this AI stuff.
Jeremy Robb:And I just thought that was really fascinating because if we're not seeing that yet, it argors for a lot more growth several years from now. Sure. Right? And just a really interesting thing. Yeah.
Jeremy Robb:We all work with AI, right? We can kind of see like it's pretty productive with data at least and things like that. So, and obviously a lot of AI spend has happened in the economy and it's boosting that. I just, like, thought it was fascinating that they
Erin Keating:Yeah. I mean, it's you know what I related it to a little bit is like every every election that we have, you know, every four years, you hear the person who's competing to come into the job and talking about how awful things were and then they sort of have that year, that first year coming in where it's easy to claim everything. It was your idea and that's what's really impacting the growth. But really, I mean, things are on a lag. Things take time to catch up to where you really see the impact.
Erin Keating:So perhaps it was really actually the third and fourth year of the previous administration that really built that crescendo or dip, you know, whichever way it goes. So, that's sort of what I related it to. And I think people are still figuring out AI in a sense of a lot of people are getting familiar. I mean, even on our own team, we're getting familiar with using AI. But even I have expressed, you know, I'm not seeing a huge productivity gain just yet because there's still time when it's, you know, locking up or it needs a lot more, you know, words and prompting and things like that.
Erin Keating:And so, I think we're experimenting, but I'm not sure how quickly I think it's right probably to think that the productivity gains are likely in the future, but not long term, you know, short term, but haven't been accounted for yet.
Jeremy Robb:Yeah. How all that stuff comes into play, the timing of it and all. Right. If it's really that lagged, it can really make you more greatly appreciate how they try to set policy you know, steer the economy overall with something that we're still operating from three or four or five years ago, right? Impacting what's happening.
Jeremy Robb:And so, it's just, you know, really interesting comments and
Erin Keating:And logistics and infrastructure, right? They also mentioned that like AI, you know, the slowdown might not necessarily be the technology itself, but rather like, can we build enough infrastructure and data centers and compute and energy solutions like fast enough? Like the logistics of actually being able to leverage the full capacity of AI that was discussed in a couple different sessions of what may also prove out to be a lag, I guess, if you will, and how much productivity we see and when we'll see it. So, I thought that was interesting.
Jeremy Robb:Yep. Yeah. But that's- Those are my takeaways from it. It was good couple of days and, you know, then we'll see what happens going forward.
Erin Keating:Yeah, absolutely. It's always great to hear your perspective and to know what our most updated numbers are. And again, sort of that intersection of policy and economics and then being able to apply it and think about our company and how it might impact our industry and everything, I thought it was a it's always a great reset to sit in on sessions like that and to be able to talk through them with you and and see how we're seeing things and hearing things based on our different backgrounds and interpretations. So thank you so much for being with us today, Jeremy, and for letting us know what the latest and greatest is on the economic conditions.
Jeremy Robb:Great as always. Lots of good content. Our company is amazing at giving us all this data to talk about all the time.
Erin Keating:Absolutely. Okay. So, always fascinating to hear from Jeremy about what's going on in the economy. And again, you know, loved hearing and comparing notes on what we both learned at NABE, the National Association for Business Economics Policy Conference. Again, I thought it was just real special to be able to hear from a lot of policymakers.
Erin Keating:Last year, when I attended the event, there was, you know, obviously tariffs had just come out, and it was an enormous part of the discussion. And it's funny how we're still living in the world of tariffs. And, of course, you know, the big headline for the tariffs as a whole was that the IEEPA tariffs last week were batted down by the Supreme Court. So just to level set everyone as it relates to the automotive industry, which I think is important for us to kick off in this particular portion of the of the podcast, is to level set us on what IEEPA means and how that is going to impact our automotive industry. So if you recall, IEEPA was really talking about the reciprocal tariffs that Trump put into place and some of those requirements around China, Mexico, and Canada based on the fentanyl trades that were going on.
Erin Keating:And the Supreme Court said, sorry, buddy, but you can't do that. So those tariffs have now been, in theory, lopped off, stopped, and the Supreme Court did not address refunds and how they would actually handle that. So let's just park that over there, that IEEPA is definitely going to have a big impact and a more broad impact. So when we're
Erin Keating:thinking of share of wallet, when we're thinking about how individuals might be worried about price increases or not based on tariffs, that's the larger picture that IEEPA and that decision is going to impact. Where we're sitting in the automotive industry, we're still focused on the automotive section two thirty two tariffs.
Erin Keating:Tariffs. That's those are the ones that were installed to affect automotive vehicles, parts, steel, aluminum, etcetera, etcetera. Those tariffs have not been touched. So as far as we know and as far as we should expect, all of those are gonna stay intact. And so nothing really material has changes just yet for the automotive industry.
Erin Keating:We do have the USMCA coming up for negotiation in July. The big thing there that we're gonna keep our eye out on is whether content changes and requirements are gonna happen, mostly at this policy conference and and others think that this will continue to move forward and USMCA will either be renegotiated, kept as, you know, so not being terribly disrupted or bilateral agreements will come in. So we don't need to bond down the conversation today on that, but I felt like it was important enough that it was discussed at the policy conference and important enough for you all to hear straight from the horse's mouth, you know, the self proclaimed chief tariff officer for the company and and what we look at from a Cox Automotive perspective, where we are with what happened with the Supreme Court decision last week on tariffs. Moving on to some more interesting information that came out of the industry because there was certainly plenty of policy discussion. Couple things I just wanted to highlight that we heard about in the last couple weeks.
Erin Keating:One, we have been talking nonstop with dealers about fixed operations, and automakers are focused on fixed operations. We do know that margins are gonna continue to be compressed for new vehicles given that tariffs are still applicable there. And what that means is that, you know, fixed operations just becomes, continues to be, and becomes an even bigger focus for that profitability engine for dealerships and for automakers because they do sell into the dealers parts and equipment and and so forth. So one of the things that we learned in our service study was that convenience for dealerships was one of the biggest hurdles for consumers. Why they weren't going back to their dealership or purchase was because it's too far away or it's not convenient.
Erin Keating:And interestingly enough, Mazda announced that they actually did a deal with Uber for business. And so as you're thinking about ways in which dealers might be trying to get rid of the convenience factor, let's check that one off so it's no longer a complaint from consumers. One of them obviously is whether it's pickup and delivery or the ability to get around once you've dropped your car off for service. But it was really interesting that Mazda was coming forward with an actual partnership with Uber to say, here's how we're gonna help handle service customers that are coming in and getting them to their destinations where they need to go or getting them back to their car when they need to pick it up. So I thought that was a pretty interesting and timely given all the discussions we're having around fixed ops.
Erin Keating:And sort of keeping with the fixed ops story, Nissan, who certainly doesn't need any more headaches right now and especially not for their best seller, the Rogue, just announced that they're gonna have to recall over 300,000 Rogues and for pretty substantial challenges that are definitely going to push more business back into the service phase of dealerships. So Nissan dealers in particular might be handling quite a few recalls and repairs and things like that that are that are actually manufacturer paid under warranty and so forth. Now we know recall work doesn't always happen immediately because it's still a pretty archaic system of how consumers get notified of recalls and not every consumer really wants to deal with a recall. They may not understand the gravity of it. So here's where I would say, hey, we already know fixed ops is a growth engine for companies.
Erin Keating:Yes, it's never a great positive thing to announce a recall, especially when it's decently significant for the operability of the vehicle. It is an opportunity to touch base with the consumers to make sure that they are being communicated to in all different ways, not just the ways that NHTSA requires of the automakers to get those cars in the shop and get the recall work done. So we'll be seeing and looking for what happens there in the Nissan service bay over the next couple of months. Another trend that we saw building over the last couple of weeks is, and months especially, is different manufacturers trying to figure out how to be better in tune with regionalized business. We know that it was, I believe, Ford that went ahead and said we're going to push more people out into the regions to help with the dealers, I think with up to a 100 people, out into the field is, you know, how we refer to it in the automotive business, to really help with smaller stores that maybe need more attention from the automaker and so forth.
Erin Keating:Chevy said that they were gonna start getting way more involved with, you know, having access quickly to vehicles at port and things like this. Well, Volvo just announced that they're actually adding a fourth sales region. Volvo is actually a pretty low volume brand, but the fact that they would see the necessary to bring in a fourth sales region, again, reinforces this fact that, you know, automakers are understanding that they need to be really engaged at the local community level. And, you know, that goes along with us as well at Cox Automotive. Just keeping an eye on what's happening regionally.
Erin Keating:We are in an enormous country, and it really does matter on the ground in the local communities what's happening. This is always why it's so important for us to hear from our dealers. Our Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index is being released next week. It's important to look at what they're saying, and we see it by region because it totally matters where they're based in the country. We can be rest assured the Northeastern dealers right now are probably pretty bummed out.
Erin Keating:They just had a really severe storm come through, and there's gonna be a very different sentiment from those dealers than there might be down in the Southwest. So just really interesting to see that automakers continue to pick up on this need to be closer to the business that's happening at the dealership level and even from small players like Volvo. And then lastly, I just wanted to touch on electric vehicles. So Toyota. Toyota.
Erin Keating:You know, we talked about them continually over the last five years. I don't think there's a brand that got more recognition around their stance on electric vehicles and just their stance on electrification as a whole. And I think most people would say, look, Toyota was like the OG outside of the Nissan Leaf. Toyota has been talking about electrification for a long time. They they, you know, revolutionized the industry with the hybrid, with the Prius, and etcetera.
Erin Keating:And they were the steady Eddie through the evolution of EV, the need to install a ton of new electrical electric vehicle capacity and production and models and such. And they stayed out of the foam there, if you will, during the market. And so they're not having these enormous write downs right now on electric vehicle implementation and and Cap-Ex expenses. Rather, they went slow and steady through it, and they've built an enormous portfolio of hybrid sales, nearly 50% or I think just over 50% of their portfolio last year. And yet, who is launching new battery electric vehicles this year?
Erin Keating:Toyota. They just announced their new Highlander, their first three row SUV that's gonna be all electric and will be coming out this year. They have two other vehicles also coming out. So real big news that Toyota all along has been steady, Eddie, didn't jump into the fray when everything was getting really foamy in the market, and yet is still moving forward. So to me, that's a positive indicator that they still believe electrification and even pure electric vehicles have a place in the market, and they're gonna continue to stick to their slow and steady adoption and production cadence to make sure they can keep pace with the market.
Erin Keating:They're obviously a global manufacturer. They need to be competitive everywhere else. But they're even looking to continue to maintain some sort of leadership here in The United States by bringing that EV here. So I thought that was really interesting. A lot of people were excited about it, and some people were surprised by it.
Erin Keating:On the other flip side with electric vehicles, we saw that Scout said, and this is the offshoot of the Volkswagen brand. You know, they're not technically a Volkswagen brand. They have been invested in by Volkswagen, and we know this is big discussion right now in the industry because they are attempting to go direct to consumer. There have been a couple of states that have said that blessed them to go direct to consumer, but we certainly know NADA is out there. Dealers are out there.
Erin Keating:Regional councils are out there legally going against scout to say, nope, You've gotta be able to go through franchise dealers. So while all that's happening in the background, Scout has announced that there is a delay likely happening in their product line. And so they were originally supposed to roll out the line in '27. We now see them saying '28, You know? If if I were a betting person, I think there's a couple of things wrapped up in that.
Erin Keating:Obviously, rethinking around powertrains, moving more into that extended range vehicle, etcetera. Maybe buying more time to figure out this full direct to consumer franchise relationship. I don't know. I don't have any insights, but I am very much looking forward to attending an event next week in Detroit where Scott Keough, the chief executive officer of Scout, will be talking with folks like myself and other media professionals in the industry. So more to come on our next episode on what kinda comes out of that discussion.
Erin Keating:But interesting here to see that a brand was really pushing forward and in the news for otherwise information related to our industry now seems to be thinking about some product delays. So that about wraps it up for some key highlights that I was paying attention to throughout the industry. Again, we always appreciate you checking in with us, listening into this podcast. We're always welcome, you know, welcoming questions or topics or things that you'd like us to keep an eye on in the future. You know, for the automotive ecosystem, I think I would just wrap up saying that these dynamics, all of the ones that, you know, Jeremy discussed and a couple stories that we're hearing, they really affect everything from vehicle pricing to supply chains to labor availability, retail efficiency, you know, productivity gains will continue to reshape operations.
Erin Keating:But execution, not demand, is going to really determine the outcomes. As I've talked to every automaker and dealer, you know, my whole thing is how do you win in this fragmented market? You win by being prepared and by being flexible and able to work in a consistently volatile and uncertain background. The opportunity is still there, you know, but the success is going to belong to those that are really able to navigate all of that. At the end of the day, that about does it for our episode today, and we really do appreciate you listening to The Auto Market Brief.
Erin Keating:We look forward to coming back to you in two weeks with some more economic updates and some information about what's happening out there in the automotive industry at large. Appreciate you listening in. See you next time. Thanks for joining us on this episode of The Auto Market Brief. To stay up to date with all the latest news and perspectives from our team of experts, be sure to visit our insights hub at coxautoinc.com.