The Auto Market Brief

How are rising gas prices influencing what consumers want, and what they’re willing to buy next?

In this bonus episode of The Auto Market Brief, Erin Keating is joined by Alex Bland, Cox Automotive's Sr. Director of Market and Customer Research and Stephanie Valdez Streaty, Cox Automotive's Director of Industry Insights, to uncover findings from a recent Cox Automotive consumer survey exploring how fuel price increases are shaping shopping behavior, vehicle consideration, and overall sentiment.

What consumers are telling us right now:
The survey reveals that fuel costs are top of mind for many shoppers, with a majority indicating that rising gas prices are influencing their next vehicle decision, whether that means shifting toward fuel efficiency, delaying a purchase, or accelerating plans to reduce ongoing costs. 

Why hybrids are gaining traction:
Findings show strong interest in hybrids as a more familiar and lower‑risk alternative, offering improved efficiency without the need for a full transition to electric vehicles.

What the data says about EVs and the used market:
The conversation also explores how ongoing affordability pressures, the growing availability of used EVs from off‑lease vehicles, and increasing consumer familiarity with EV technology are contributing to momentum in the used EV market, even as new EV adoption continues to evolve.

The episode also touches on how generational and regional differences shape these trends, and what the latest consumer signals suggest for the path ahead.

The Auto Market Brief delivers timely data, clear context, and practical insight to help industry leaders make smarter decisions—what’s happening now, and what’s coming next.

The Auto Market Brief is powered by Cox Automotive. For more industry insights and expert perspectives, visit our Insights Hub at https://www.coxautoinc.com/insights.

Creators and Guests

Host
Erin Keating
Erin Keating is an Executive Analyst and Senior Director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. She brings 30 years of professional experience, including 14 years in the automotive industry, providing analysis on market conditions, automaker performance, and consumer demand shaping the economics of the new-vehicle market. Erin spent 10 years with Audi of America, including leading Audi Motorsport North America, informing her perspective on both commercial strategy and competitive dynamics.
Guest
Alex Bland
Alex Bland is the Senior Director of Market and Customer Research at Cox Automotive. He leads research focused on dealer performance, consumer behavior, and market dynamics across the automotive ecosystem. Alex and his team are responsible for some of Cox Automotive's largest studies, including dealer sentiment, fixed operations, ownership, and service‑lane research, helping translate complex data into practical insight for dealers and industry leaders navigating a rapidly shifting market.
Guest
Stephanie Valdez Streaty
As the Director of Industry Insights for Cox Automotive, Stephanie Valdez Streaty is responsible for research and analysis, specializing in the transition to electric vehicles. Her focus is providing insights to clients and the industry on key trends impacting electrification. Previously, Stephanie was the Senior Director of Corporate Responsibility for Cox Automotive, where she was responsible for building and executing the sustainability strategy across the company.

What is The Auto Market Brief?

The Auto Market Brief, powered by Cox Automotive, breaks down the latest trends and forecasts shaping the automotive industry. The show is hosted by Cox Automotive Executive Analyst Erin Keating, coupling years of experience translating data and trends with the data and industry insights of the largest automotive services and technology provider.

Joined by other Cox Automotive experts and outside guests, you’ll get data-driven insights and industry outlooks from some of the industry’s leading voices.​

Erin Keating:

Welcome to The Auto Market Brief from Cox Automotive. Each episode, our experts and special guests break down the latest trends, insights, and news shaping the automotive market. We'll give you the information that truly matters so you can make smarter decisions and drive your business forward. Hello, and welcome back to the Auto Market Brief. I'm Erin Keating, your host and industry executive analyst here at Cox Automotive.

Erin Keating:

And today, we're going to do a bit of a deep dive into the state of the electric vehicle market. Alex Bland, thank you for returning. He comes back with some insights into the American consumer psyche and how it is being impacted by the conflict in Iran and the subsequent fuel price increases. As senior director of market and customer research, Alex and his team recently ran a hot topic survey, and the people have spoken. Welcome, Alex.

Alex Bland:

Great to be here, Erin. Thanks again for having me.

Erin Keating:

As usual, of course. And then I've got my trusty teammate and director of industry insight, Stephanie Valdez Streaty. She lives and breathes all things EVs and batteries for our company. And she's going to bring with her some up to date information on how the new and used electric vehicle is shaping up, especially considering the roller coaster ride we've been on for, I don't know, years it feels like. But at least in September when the IRA credits went away, more used EVs have started to return into wholesale and retail and used retail.

Erin Keating:

Then we have the hybrid surge that we all sort of expected, but might be looking even more interesting in this year given the conflict in Iran. So welcome, Stephanie.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

Thank you, Erin. Look forward to the conversation.

Erin Keating:

Great. So let's dive in. I'm gonna start with Alex just to set the tone for what we're gonna talk about from a survey perspective. And then, of course, Stephanie, feel free to chime in. But to set the scene, Alex, can you refresh the audience what your team does and exactly what is it that you do when you throw out there a hot topic survey as I understand them to be called?

Alex Bland:

Happy happy to. We're always as a team working on what's going on across the world of retail or wholesale automotive. So whether that's the rise in digital products or it's consumer shopping behaviors, we're always looking at those things. But then we've got the out of nowhere moments where you've got COVID, you've got tariffs, you've got gas price spikes, which means we gotta take a special look at that because all of those things play into the tapestry of what's going on out there in the market.

Erin Keating:

Awesome. So as you mentioned, of course, we did just have this Iran conflict. We've been looking at shopping data, I know, on you know, Stephanie, on the used sales, not so much the new sales I mean, on the new and used sales, we typically see a lag in electric vehicle registrations. It's a little harder to just see, especially on the new side, but we've been seeing some movements there. So I know we wanna try to piece those things together, sort of what are they telling you, Alex?

Erin Keating:

What are we then seeing in some of our shopping behavior data? And then, of course, what's the real real once it comes to Stephanie's desk and she can see what's happening. So this latest one you did was a hot topic around how do people feel about the fuel prices, right, and how that's impacting. I'm just curious. What would be the three top takeaways you would grab from what you guys looked at?

Alex Bland:

Honestly, I I feel like this is just another chapter in the story of affordability, and affordability has been a topic we've been on for some time now. And for those customers who are already struggling with affordability, this is a little bit like salt in the wound. So not surprisingly, consumers have this on their mind as they're out there shopping. And for a lot of them, it's making an impact on what they're doing. We've got, three fourths of the folks we talked to said it's gonna impact their decision in some way.

Alex Bland:

74% told us they're more likely to consider a fuel efficient vehicle for their next purchase. And then there's a mixture of attitudes towards delaying purchase and some people speeding them up, which I I didn't expect. I went in thinking there'd be some delayers. There'd be some business as usual. But there are some folks who said, you know what?

Alex Bland:

I'd rather move quicker into something that's more efficient and bite the bullet on the purchase, but lower my ongoing fuel costs. So that's another big thing. And then I think you teed it up perfectly before, Erin, the pull towards alternatives beyond ice. And, especially, we saw a lot of love for the hybrids come up here in terms of the openness for moving that direction. It's the nearest neighbor to what they have today for those who aren't already full EV.

Alex Bland:

So it's very appetizing, especially with the prices of gas where they are today.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

I know, like, in the survey, it definitely show that people are gravitating towards hybrid, which are easy, like, transition. But I think what you mentioned about affordability, if you look globally, the high gas prices are really increasing pure battery electric sales. And I think it goes back to the available affordable options, especially given Chinese EVs are launching in those other markets. So it's just interesting the dynamics between The US and other global countries on the impact of these rising gas prices.

Erin Keating:

Yeah. That's a great point because we do we often and we are, of, you know, of course, specifically focused on The US market. And in The US market, we aren't seeing exactly the same behavior as we see across the pond and beyond. But yes, globally, there is a much bigger oil crisis than there is in The US. You know, we're the largest producer of oil.

Erin Keating:

And so we felt we feel it a little bit in the packet, but we're not necessarily feeling it truly in any kind of shortages and real sharp crisis, but other parts of the world are. I remember China coming out right at the beginning saying, I guess we're going to turn back to letting people work from home, you know, because maybe we'll help, you know, individuals save some money, some some money there. But, you know, Stephanie, from The US market, how is that turning out to look from a sales perspective, whether it's new or used? What are you seeing in the data?

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

Well, I know if you look at April data, new sales were down year over year, month over month, but used, as we expected, continued to increase. Right? And I think it goes back to, once again, that affordability. Right? There's a lot of affordable options.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

There's, like, less than a thousand dollars between the used EV and the used gas vehicles. So for consumers, if you're able to charge at home and you feel comfortable with the technology, it's a no brainer. It's a true it's a really strong value proposition. So we're definitely seeing that uptick, and we've all heard about the number of new EVs that are released. So this year, we're gonna have a bunch that are kind of off lease in the upcoming year as well.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

So I think we're gonna continue to see used EVs as a really good alternative for consumers looking for that affordable vehicle to purchase.

Erin Keating:

Absolutely. I mean, to your point, we had a ton of vehicles in the leasing market, especially over the last couple of years because that was one of the major loopholes in the EV tax credits, and all of the companies were able to get full use of that $7,500 by leasing them. And what that means, of course, is that we see a lot more of them coming off lease. And I think between this year and the end of the decade, we just progressively bring in more and more EVs. And of course, there'll be more variety in them too, because primarily Tesla has ruled the overall new vehicle sales as well as the used EV sales.

Erin Keating:

And now, you know, in the middle of last year, though, remind me, Stephanie, I feel like we saw Tesla slide back actually in not dominating the new EV market, but they've since come back. Is that right?

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

Oh, yeah, Erin. You're right. Like, they went below 50% for the last first time last year, but they're above 50% now. This if you look at currently year to date. But I think it's not that people are resonating more towards Tesla.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

It's other makes aren't doing as well, right, because of all the headwinds. Right? And so I think that's the dynamics that are going on. But once again, you point out kind of who's taking some of that share away from Tesla, players like Kia, Hyundai, Toyota. I think Toyota's one to watch.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

If you look at year over year, they're up in April over 200% year over year volume increase. And so think, once again, I think with that and they have some other models that they'll be launching. So I think that's a brand to watch.

Erin Keating:

Sure. Absolutely. So, I mean, Alex, I'm wondering, because we do talk a lot about people's preferences and we can deep dive back into that Tesla topic, but some of that may or may not have to do with demographics. When you were doing this Hot Topic survey, were you able to take a cut of it looking at people's age or household income or, you know, vehicle owned or anything like that that popped for you?

Alex Bland:

Definitely. And there are there are definitely things there that you see move depending on the type of person that you're looking at. Older shoppers are a little more likely to delay their purchase and wait to ride it out a bit more. You've got young shoppers who are in the 18 29 zone who are just as likely to accelerate as they are to delay. Those are some of the folks who I mentioned before who are looking to let's get the efficiency now and cut down on my costs.

Alex Bland:

And then to the the EV point, that EV love is strongest among those younger, and also more affluent customers, But the consideration still lags a bit behind what they're thinking of for hybrids. So definitely growing, but hybrid growing a bit faster.

Erin Keating:

We expected that. Right, Stephanie?

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

Yeah. Yeah. We expected that. I was gonna say, though, one thing about the used EV market. I went to the used EV car summit a month ago and sat on a dealer panel and dealers who only sell used EVs.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

And they were saying that they've started seeing a huge uptick, no data behind this, but huge uptick in boomers. So I say to say that that this new this used EV market, I think the demographic who buys used EV is expanding. It's not the one it's more it's very similar to, like, the used market in general. So I'm just thinking that that's gonna really, I think, drive in more more people into the used EV market that could potentially help the new market get that familiarity, and maybe we'll start to see some of that long term

Erin Keating:

Right.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

Impact on new sales.

Alex Bland:

Totally

Erin Keating:

agree. I mean, it's sort of, I would imagine the psyche behind it, those like, the psychology behind it might be that people who were already hesitant about EVs, you know, part of the reason we saw the big uptick in leases that, yes, they benefited from the 700 or $7,500 EV credit, but also it gave people the sense of comfort that like, hey, if this thing doesn't work out, I can give the car back in three years and I'm not sunk into a, you know, a new power train that I'm not comfortable with. But on the flip side, in the used EV market, it's like, hey, the prices are so reasonable. I also don't necessarily mind taking the hit now because the price is much more reasonable. I'm taking on the car and, you know, I've got battery health scores on it.

Erin Keating:

I can see how well it's performed so far and a little more comfort with it.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

No. I think you're right. It's if you think about, like, for just the barriers cost. Right? So with the used EV, you have that cost barrier almost eliminated, and then convenience if you're able to charge at home.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

But I think the confidence, you just talked about, knowing that the battery health, having a score for that state of health, and also knowing that there's a battery warranty. You have, you know, eight to 10 over a 100,000 miles. So I think those three things are really helping the used you know, there's a supply and there's confidence that market. And so I think that's why we're starting to see and we'll continue to see an uptick in sales.

Alex Bland:

Totally agree with that. I think we've also I think we've also reached a little bit in the proliferation of EVs where people know someone who has one, and they don't necessarily come with horror stories of all the terrible battery fears that people had at the outset. So this lower price point opens it up to a whole new world of people who've got some secondhand knowledge of it's not as scary as maybe I thought, and now it's a safer way for me to jump in.

Erin Keating:

100%. My own family is an example of that because I took the deep dive into leasing and would be at the, you know, right at the end of the the credits running out. But now that my family has seen me test it and be happy with it, my son who's gonna be going off to school next year, he realizes he doesn't wanna have to pay for that gas on his own. So all of sudden, it's it's not even necessarily about efficiency or current gas prices. He's just like, I don't wanna have to pay for gas, period.

Erin Keating:

Mom seems to do just fine on that car running the mileage. So now he's looking into it. He's devin' himself. So I guess he's one of the younger generations we're seeing towards the

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

I love that. Yeah.

Erin Keating:

Right? Yeah. So we'll see. We'll see. But we're looking at a few now.

Erin Keating:

I'm curious, you know, Stephanie, you mentioned that dealers anecdotally are talking about what they're seeing, and I certainly saw a bunch of dealers last week who are also raising their hand and saying, we're getting more at least selling these, especially used EVs because they went kind of wild in wholesale space, especially during refund season because more of them were coming back. And to your point, Stephanie, they were on par from a price perspective. Alex, I know we haven't released to the public just yet, at least not as a recording, but maybe as maybe as when this posts, people have already released it, the Cox Automotive dealer sentiment earned index. But was wondering if could give us, like, a sneak snippet of, like, what were some of the dealers saying about used DVEs, selling them and such? Do you have any thoughts there?

Alex Bland:

Yeah. It's it's funny as we've looked over years now of how dealers feel about EVs. Used EVs has not been something that dealers have been excited about, whether you're talking about franchise dealers or you're talking about independent dealers. But exactly to your point, Erin, we've seen that move the other direction, or we will see that when we share those results with the world very soon. And there's a little bit more growing optimism about used EVs.

Alex Bland:

And it's especially on the independent side where we see a market where sourcing vehicles for independent dealers isn't super easy right now. So getting a bite at a used EV while there is that growing consumer demand presents them with an opportunity, and and dealers are looking for opportunity anywhere they can find it.

Erin Keating:

Yeah. I thought that was really interesting. And so, yes, of course, it's not public and live. It's embargoed for all of you listening if you happen to listen to this before we release it because I'm not sure of our release dates. Just pretend like you didn't hear it, but we're excited to see that release because I do agree there was a lot of really interesting points there.

Erin Keating:

I mean, Stephanie, on your side, you know, we did see Bless and Cho within our analytics group. She and her group have actually looked at a lot at the shopping behavior. You know, what are we seeing on Auto Trader and Kelley Blue Book? And one of the interesting things I saw was we know that the Midwest got hit with some of the largest increases in gas prices. And, you know, coincidentally, she also saw that the Midwest shoppers were the highest increase in shopping interest.

Erin Keating:

But have we started to see that play out in the real numbers on sales? I don't know if you have all the way through April because I know they're on a lag due to registration data, but what are your thoughts on what data is backing up that those shopping behaviors are turning into purchase?

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

We don't have that data yet, but to your point, I agree. We're probably gonna see a geographical differences based on the gas prices. Right? And also too, think, kinda Alex, what you said, that familiarity. California, we might see more of people EV be right.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

There's more familiarity with that, but hybrids might continue to do well in other parts of the country where there's not as high EV adoption. So I think we're gonna hopefully, we'll have the data soon, Erin, and I can talk about what the data says. But I think we're gonna continue to see hybrids do well in certain parts of the country and EVs do well where there's more, better infrastructure Right. More adoption.

Erin Keating:

Yeah. My hypothesis has continued to be that if you're in market right now, say in the next three to six months and you've been shopping, it makes complete sense to me why you would say, let me open the window on a hybrid. And honestly, you might already be at that stage. So if you were already at that stage, I don't see why you wouldn't say, you know what? Let me actually just check out what's available from an EV perspective.

Erin Keating:

I have a hard time wrapping my head around the fact that brand new customers who aren't in market are all of a sudden like, hey, I wanna take on a car payment just to get, you know, an electric vehicle or or a fuel efficient vehicle if they paid it off given the interest rate environment and you have the con the constant, high price. But, you know, I think it's still a good sign, right, to show that people are interested in the power chain even if they're just shopping around, looking around.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

Well, I was gonna say people that have, like, long commutes or, like, you're saying, like, somebody that we're talking about the boomers or, like, what you just mentioned, Erin, looking for a car for your your child, your your kid, or a second car. Right? It makes sense potentially to buy an EV if you already have potentially a gas or a hybrid already as your main car. So I think there's different use cases that are definitely gonna propel this. Right.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

I'm sorry. What was you gonna say?

Erin Keating:

No pun intended. Right? Propel. No pun intended. And so I'm just also curious, winners and losers.

Erin Keating:

So we talked about Tesla having been a new vehicle last year brand, you know, that they actually went under 50% for the first time as new entrants came into the market. We've seen some of those very same new entrants go ahead and pull back out again. So are there any significant challengers out there that you see that could continue to play on par or at least gain share from Tesla this year? And were there any that you were really surprised to hear that they pulled out of the market?

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

Well, I think, you know, definitely Hyundai. Right? The IONIQ five continues to do well, and then, actually, I think top four, like, year to date. But once again, I'll bring up Toyota. Toyota is the one that I felt like I know they were you know, they have a really long term strategy, and I knew they would enter the EV market at the right time for them, but they are, like, doubling down.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

And so I think that's one to watch. The Mach E, I'm surprised with, that continues to do well. In April, it was one of the few models that had month over month increases. And so I think that was surprising to see that that still could you know, it's not a new model. Right?

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

And Ford hasn't had anything until they have a new midsize pickup coming out in 2027. The I you know, I think Volkswagen is one that's kind of pulled back a lot, as you know. Cadillac's one to watch. They have a lot of good options. The Lyriq does well, the Optic.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

And so I think those are a few that I think

Erin Keating:

Yeah.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

Will be doing well, the Hyundai Kia. And I think the other one to watch is the Rivian r two.

Erin Keating:

Right. Yeah. Now that's finally coming. It's coming out in the most expensive version first and then the less expensive version, but still, it's great to see them come out with a smaller vehicle that's a little bit, you know, bigger appetite for the American market. Alex, any last thoughts that you have on on how that Hot Topic survey hit you when you saw the results of it?

Alex Bland:

You know, I a lot of it went according to what I might have thought going in. Though gas prices have reached a point where it was inevitable that buyers in the market, especially those who are already confronting affordability, were gonna be feeling the pinch a bit more. The strong pull on hybrids resonates with me just as we see to Stephanie's point as some OEMs pull back on the EV front and double down on the hybrid front. It seems to really be in alignment with what consumers are feeling right now. But I do think that that used EV market is is coming, and we're gonna see continued growth there.

Alex Bland:

So who knows what the next splash will be, but we'll be listening.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

Yeah. I think on in talking about the hybrid space, we know Toyota has, like, the halo effect. And now that they have, like, the Camry's only in hybrid, the RAV four's only hybrid or plug in, I think that's just another some beta points to show that we're gonna continue to see that volume uptick because people trust those vehicles. They've been around a long time.

Erin Keating:

Yeah. And not to be a skeptic because I do think we are seeing increases. But, you know, you guys know me. I always like to keep context around this stuff. So when we do see increases in sales for hybrids, I mean, to your point, like, RAV four is now only a hybrid.

Erin Keating:

And we had to we had to reconcile some of this data when the Camry weren't all hybrid is that, you know, some of the reason we're gonna see higher sales in those particular vehicles in hybrid powertrain is because it's now the only one that's available. Right? So Right. You know, I just like to keep ourselves a little honest on sometimes when we see the increases. Same thing with Cadillac.

Erin Keating:

They're doing great, but they've really moved to a primarily EV lineup outside of a couple of their models like the Escalade. But I do think it's worth noting that it's obviously the hybrid surge. We're we're in it. I think it's gonna be a wave that we're gonna ride for quite some time. It's good to see EVs continuing to make their mark in the industry.

Erin Keating:

I think GM and Ford honestly will be interesting comparisons because GM, of course, isn't leaning in really to the hybrids, whereas Ford is starting to a bit, and then you've got Hyundai, Kia, and Toyota, and Honda, which are sort of the big four competitors against our domestic three and just to see how they survive and maybe even thrive because of the diversity of their lineup. So this is great. You know, it's very timely. We know that we continue to get hit with headline after headline. This one was one of the few that really hit the heart of the American car buyers.

Erin Keating:

So, Alex, we always look forward to the research and intelligence that your team can bring to the market, especially within the moment. And Stephanie, you keep us posted every month. We do release an EV market report every month, which I think is important. So thank you both for being with us today. I think we need to remember that hybrid and electric vehicles are something we're gonna have to keep an eye on, and we're here to help keep the industry informed on what we're seeing.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty:

Thanks, Erin.

Alex Bland:

Excellent. Thanks, Erin.

Erin Keating:

Thanks for joining us today, everybody. And please remember to check out coxautoinc.com for our insights. These get updated as frequently as we are releasing them. They include things like Stephanie's EV market monitor, as well as any of Alex's group's surveys and research that they do. Also, please remember to subscribe and share this podcast if you find it interesting.

Erin Keating:

We will also be posting when these episodes go live on the Insights portal. Thanks for joining us today, we'll see you next time. Thanks for joining us on this episode of the Auto Market Brief. To stay up to date with all the latest news and perspectives from our team of experts, be sure to visit our insights hub at coxautoinc.com.