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Our weekly show is hosted by Michael Nadeau (The DeFi Report) and Ryan Sean Adams (Bankless). Each week, we discuss how we approach managing our own portfolio and the data, research, and analytical frameworks that inform those decisions — for educational and informational purposes.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[0:10] What's the state of the markets? It is March 25th, 2026. Welcome to the report. The markets are complacent. That's what Mike says today. And when we're talking about complacent markets, what we're really talking about is the NASDAQ. What we're talking about is equities and the investors that are still buying these risk assets. The question today, are the TradFi markets poised to join Bitcoin in the bear market? Maybe Bitcoin was the canary in the coal mine. And are investors waiting for the next taco pivot on the Iran war?
Ryan Sean Adams:
[0:40] Is that naive? Or are they being prescient there? Maybe they're just being complacent. We talk about the war in Iran, oil prices, on-chain data, and what's the pattern here through the noise? Of course, stick around to the end. We've got a special update on the watch list. The watch list, as you might recall, are Mike's prices, fair market value prices for his favorite crypto assets, including some deep value price calls for Bitcoin, Hype, and Zcash. Mike, every Wednesday, I feel like I'm opening up a Christmas gift because in the morning, I get a fresh report on the TDR. I love it. This report felt like a sequel to last week in a way, where last week, we were comparing the 2026 market to the 2022 market. And how do you feel about that comparison? One question I had is,
Ryan Sean Adams:
[1:28] Is that just too easy? You know, are we like backfitting some data and seeing the pattern of 2022 and it playing out in 2026? Or do you think this is kind of safe given the indicators you're seeing?
Michael Nadeau:
[1:40] I think this is the analog that I'm anchoring to right now. There's a number of reasons why I think the setup is very similar from kind of a, you know, liquidity perspective, from what we're seeing with inflation and kind of the Fed's hands being tied. It was it was COVID inflation back in 2022. You know, this year we've got oil. And, you know, when you look at the real estate market and we've got mortgage rates now going up to like 6.4 percent or so similar environment back in 2022, the Fed was hiking rates. And if you look at some of the charts. Like the sort of pattern of topping looks very, very similar. And what just happened recently for NASDAQ is we just broke the 200 day moving average. And so we can kind of get into this, I think this week in this episode, kind of what happens when we start to break below 200 week moving average, or sorry, 200 day moving average, and kind of what that could potentially mean for where, you know, risk assets are heading, you know, is Bitcoin going to follow or potentially lead that move. We can kind of get into that this week.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[2:49] So I guess this is a case of markets don't repeat, but they do rhyme. And you're definitely seeing some rhyming going on with 2022, although maybe it won't be exactly the same. Before we get into the meat of today's episode, we got to thank our friends and sponsors over at Galaxy. And this one's for the institutions listening. If you're looking at the future of finance, which is crypto, or you're looking at the next industrial revolution, which is AI, of course. Galaxy is the name you need to know. They've established themselves as a global leader in both of these fields, not just digital assets, but also the infrastructure that's powering AI. On the digital asset side, they have institutional training, custody, tokenization. They've been here through multiple cycles, rock solid on that side. And then on AI, they actually have data centers. So an HPC ready data center, including their Helios site. This is 1.6 gigawatts of approved power. It's a nuclear power plant plus all of this under the ticker that you know, GLXY. If you want to see how Galaxy helps institutions invest, build, and transform relentlessly, go check them out. There's a link in the show notes, bankless.cc slash Galaxy. All right, level set on the week, your positioning going into the week. I'm rounding some numbers here, but about 50% cash, 50% crypto. So you're half risk on and ready, and then half, you're being patient. The Bitcoin price at the time of recording, what are we at? 71K, something like this?
Ryan Sean Adams:
[4:16] Um, what's been really interesting, of course, is to observe Bitcoin versus the NASDAQ. You start today's report like this. Bitcoin continues to show strength amid global uncertainty. It's trading at about 71K, down 44% since the peak, but up 13% since early February. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ is starting to crack. So it's now down 9.2% from the October 29th, 2025 high. It just broke its 200-day moving average, which you said, and MAG-7 continues to underperform. So let's get into the crux of this right now, which is your outlook on markets somewhat depends on your outlook on macro, oil, geopolitics, and the war in Iran.
Michael Nadeau:
[5:06] Yes, the war in Iran is really, I think, the key thing right now. So, you know, this, the headlines and, you know, potential for negotiation now and ceasefires, I think that's what people are focused on currently.
Michael Nadeau:
[5:22] And I think the news that we saw yesterday with potentially like a 30 day ceasefire or opening up for negotiation, it's unclear what's actually happening here because we see Trump indicating that there's discussions happening and something about a gift, you know, that was given. I don't know if you saw this yesterday. I saw this. You know, it was even called a prize at one point, I think, by Trump. So, you know, I think this is fascinating to watch from, you know, I do think Trump is a good negotiator. And like, it's fascinating just to watch what he's doing from that perspective. Like, is he talking about a prize? Is that... Did it even happen? Like, who's he signaling to? Is he signaling it to the markets? Is he talking when he starts to talk like that? Is he talking to, you know, Iran? It's hard to tell what's going on here. But I think if you sort of just anchor to what I think is most important to both sides, my view on sort of what's happening in Iran is this is mostly, you know, about China. And I think almost everything that the Trump administration is doing on the geopolitical front is primarily related to China. And so the thing that's most important for the U.S. is control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Michael Nadeau:
[6:46] Like we can win. We're dominating this war. And I think this is the weird thing is like we've basically crippled their Navy. We've taken out most of the leadership and we've been able to do that without boots on the ground. But it seems like you're winning the battle and the actual war is going to be won by who controls the strait. And so I think that's really what this ultimately comes down to. We saw, I think, some of the, you know, demands that Iran had and the demands that the U.S. Has, and they're just not even close to, you know, meeting anywhere in the middle there. And so you know i'm anchoring to this just being a sort of more drawn out thing that i think the markets are expecting i think a lot of people are still sort of stuck in this mode of like trump can negotiate his way out of this he can taco his way out of this um i'm sort of fading that i'm just saying hey this is like a really big deal there's already been quite a bit of destruction quite a bit of disruption to the oil markets and it doesn't feel like there's like a clean a clean resolution here you have
Michael Nadeau:
[7:43] israel that's involved so you know i'm not an expert on any of this. I know everyone's trying to opine and become a geopolitical expert.
Michael Nadeau:
[7:50] Not an expert, just trying to focus on what I think is most important. And it feels like, you know, part of what Trump's doing right now is trying to buy some time, see if there's a way to negotiate before we actually have to put boots on the ground. I think we just announced that there's actually more troops that are now heading another thousand troops or so on their way. I think we've got about 3000 that are either, you know, in transit or on their way. And then I think there's about 50,000 US troops that are stationed on some of the bases, you know, in the Gulf right now. So.
Michael Nadeau:
[8:22] It's kind of what I think is happening. Don't know. Obviously, if you're not in Trump's inner circle, you probably don't really know what's going on. But that's kind of what I'm trying to anchor to. And then just from there, how does that transmit to risk assets? I just think it points to higher oil prices, more volatility, and a weaker setup, I think, for risk assets.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[8:45] So let me make sure I understand what I think you're saying in today's report. You think the real objective in the war is, for the U.S. At least, is more to do with China and trade policy with China. So here are the possible Trump admin objectives that you state. No nuclear weapons for Iran. Regime change in Iran. They've said those things publicly. Number three, control of the state of Hormuz.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[9:16] And number four, influence over China's export policy, export economy. And you make the point that control of the Strait of Hormuz allows the U.S. To influence oil flows to China, which imports, I didn't know this, 70% of its oil and gets 40 to 50% of that via the Strait of Hormuz. And so number five is higher export prices out of China. Influencing oil flows to China allows the U.S. to influence its ability to produce at uncompetitive prices relative to the rest of the world. So, if those five things are possible Trump admin objectives, then it needs the first three. No nuclear weapons seems like possible, doable.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[10:00] Regime change, I'm not really sure what that means. It depends on how you define that. But this third one, control over the Strait of Hormuz, because it's so economically linked with China, that being mandatory is an objective for the U.S. It seems like the question is,
Ryan Sean Adams:
[10:16] Can they actually get that done? Because there's an asymmetry at play here and kind of the warfare over the state of Hormuz in that it's much harder to defend than it is for Iran to attack. And this is the reason what you think that this is, it's not going to be easy for the U.S. To take all of these objectives unless they recommit, double down on the war, boots on the ground, something. and that doesn't seem to be what Trump wants to do either. And for all of these reasons, you're saying this is why the war could drag out longer than investors expect. Because are you saying the market expectation is, yeah, they just think Trump will fnangle a way out of this. He has with other situations. He has a tendency to escalate and then back down and somehow get himself away from the thing that he just escalated. And that's what the market's anticipating. It's a short war. It won't last long. But you're saying if the true goal is you have to be able to defend and have sovereignty and the U.S. Has some influence over the Strait of Hormuz, there just might not be a way to actually achieve that without a longer war, a deeper war, a higher commitment.
Michael Nadeau:
[11:28] Yeah, I think that sums it up really well. And, you know, if we focus on sort of what we're talking about here with China, it's really what's happening is they get a lot of oil from the Strait of Hormuz and they're actually getting that at a discount, right? They're allies with Iran, and so they're getting that oil actually at a discount.
Michael Nadeau:
[11:47] The big picture here is that China is able to produce at uncompetitive prices. And that's really what Trump is trying to balance out. He doesn't want the rest of the world to be reliant on China for their goods. And so we're trying to balance that out. You know, there's different ways that you can approach that. I think it's pretty clear they're using oil as a strategic approach to this. I think what we did in Venezuela was sort of the precursor to this move to now what we're seeing in the Strait of Hormuz. And, you know, it's just it's it just feels very messy because, you know, regime change. What does that actually look like? I don't think that the U.S. Can even decide that. I think it probably has to happen from within the people, you know, in Iran. And that would probably come about through some sort of ground invasion to control that strait. And I don't think we necessarily want to just like control the strait and then cut China off from, you know, global oil flows. I think it's more just like, let's have a free marketplace. Let's let China buy the oil, whatever, but pay the same price as everybody else does. And I think that's what, you know, we're trying to accomplish. It just feels like, man, this is a messy situation to get yourself out of if that's truly the objective, right?
Ryan Sean Adams:
[12:58] You didn't include this in the report, but I'll just add there's another player on the horizon too, which is what is Russia doing? What's in their interest? And it looks like they're... Potentially being more aggressive to some of their neighbors, like Estonia and such, not just Ukraine. So they might use this chaos to do other things, right? That's another wild card that the market maybe hasn't yet considered.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[13:20] Anyway, you're saying because this war could drag longer than the market thinks, oil prices go higher. You think that this is a good analog for 2022. And remind us again of what happened in 2022, because we did have some similar conditions with a war and liquidity and all of these things.
Michael Nadeau:
[13:38] We did, yeah. So really what kicked off 2022 was we had an inflation problem to start with that was related to COVID, you know, supply chains being gunked up. And then going into early in the year was when Russia invaded Ukraine and then adding on to the inflation that we already had in the system. Now you've got oil prices rising. oil prices actually rose much faster and higher than what we've seen so far with this current disruption, which is somewhat surprising to me because this is a larger sort of problem to deal with, 20% of the oil coming out of the Strait of Hormuz. So the disruption is much larger this time, but we haven't seen that play out in the markets just yet. I think part of the reason is just a lot of things that the Trump administration is doing to try to suppress the price. They're doing stuff like in the futures markets or derivatives markets, trying to suppress price. They've opened up the strategic patrol reserves. They've reduced some sanctions on Iran to get more oil that's out floating on the sea to its destination. They're doing everything they can to try to prevent oil from really taking off. But these measures can only get you so far. And that buildup, similar to like what happened with COVID with supply chains, is just getting all backed up right now. And we haven't seen that.
Michael Nadeau:
[15:08] The markets and real i mean we've seen gas prices rise and it's it's actually worse in in the east and asian countries right now um but we haven't seen like uh you know this this sort of panic just just yet and that's what could potentially come where people start hoarding and things like that um but in terms of just like how this played out in the markets in 2022 um nasdaq ultimately rolled over uh early in the year it peaked at a similar time uh when bitcoin did about a about a week after Bitcoin, and it ultimately fell about 35% throughout the year, bottoming in Q4 of 2022. And what we saw is really... Bitcoin following that. I'm sorry, Bitcoin leading this. And we've done a bunch of back testing on the correlation between Bitcoin and NASDAQ. Bitcoin tends to lead NASDAQ and it tends to be most correlated in bear markets. So I'll pause there. But I think this setup here with inflation and how that bleeds into risk assets, we're kind of at the early stages, I believe, of kind of a deeper correction for the NASDAQ. And we'll see how it plays out.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[16:15] I mean, there are other pattern matches that you make too. It's also a midterm year the same way 2022 was. It's also mortgage rates are pretty high. So there's a weak market. I don't know if we saw that in 2022, but mortgage rates are now 6.4%. And I've seen 10-year yields increase on the week since we last spoke too. So that's going to be some more pressure.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[16:40] In addition, is real rates rising and you also have mortgage rates rising. You also have oil prices. All of this is pretty confounding. Maybe let's zoom in a little bit more on the 2022 cycle since it's very important for your thesis. So on November 15th, 2021, that was the NASDAQ top, huh? So that's where we topped in November 2021. and then two months later, you say, the Nasdaq broke its 200-day moving average 9.2% from its peak. But at that point, Bitcoin had already foretold all of this by leading the market. Right. Because Bitcoin at that point, two months in, was down 36%. So I imagine at that point,
Ryan Sean Adams:
[17:29] There were some Nasdaq investors like, okay, this is an opportunity. We're buying the dip. Bull market's not over. But then the Nasdaq, four months into the market, proceeded to drop another 13%, down 21% from its peak, whereas Bitcoin was down 41%. So it's like Bitcoin is kind of leading the NASDAQ in 2022 down to its lows, whereas the NASDAQ was not ready to capitulate, not ready to, you call it a day. And you'd say maybe they were complacent at that time to what the market was showing, what Bitcoin was showing. And now what's happening, I guess in the 2025, 2026 cycle, the NASDAQ topped three weeks after Bitcoin, right? So is this the top right here?
Michael Nadeau:
[18:20] A few weeks later, yeah, it was one week back in 2022 and it was a few weeks in this cycle and it's playing out roughly similar. So, you know, NASDAQ dropped below its 200 day moving average. It took about two months in 2022. It's taken about four and a half months. We just broke down from that, down about 9.2% from the highs. And what I'm looking at now is just, you know, we're below that. Typically what happens is you'll come off of that and then you'll get a retracement back to it. And then that's kind of like the moment of truth. Like, is that now resistance? And are you going to have a, usually you have a significant leg down after that retest. So we're kind of in the process of seeing kind of where we go here. And, you know, Bitcoin has been performing quite well and actually outperforming NASDAQ, outperforming gold, outperforming S&P 500. And... The question is going forward is like, is it going to actually lead the markets down another leg? And I think that's kind of my base case here.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[19:30] So, Mike, if NASDAQ follows and equities follow roughly what happened in 2022, we're already down 9.5% from the high for NASDAQ. How much further does NASDAQ drop?
Michael Nadeau:
[19:44] It's tough to say. I'm looking at like probably my base case is probably 15 to 20% is kind of what I'm anchoring to and 15.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[19:55] To 20% total or 15 to 20% more
Michael Nadeau:
[19:57] 15 to 20% probably more I'm thinking we're probably going to see a similar kind of move to what we saw in 2022 so 25 to 35% or so of a total drawdown so um that's kind of my that's kind of my base case it depends on sort of you know what happens with the fed and oil prices all of these things obviously um but if we think the war is going to stretch out then that's kind of the the base case for me and you know it's kind of it's the the situation we're in right now sort of reminds me a little bit of like early in the crypto bear market when we were kind of at that 85 to 95K range. It wasn't totally clear that we were going into a bear market at that stage.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[20:44] It was like in December, right? I felt this very much in December. A lot of people were like, no, it's not over. It's just a dip for crypto assets.
Michael Nadeau:
[20:52] Right. And I feel like that's kind of where we're at with Nasdaq and more on the TradFi side. There's certainly some fear in the air, but I think there's still a lot of people that are buying dips and expecting this just to kind of work itself out. So, Yeah, my base case, you know, with investing is like it tends to take longer for the market as a whole to sort of accept the regime you're in, especially when you're in a shifting paradigm. And so, you know, there's definitely a little battle going on right now between the bulls and the bears. But at some point, I think the bears will start to look like they're more correct here. And when that happens and when the bulls start to capitulate, that's probably the time to start to get really interested in what's happening and some good buying opportunities.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[21:46] And that's what you mean by risk on asset market complacency. Investors are complacent in the NASDAQ. Investors are complacent with U.S. Equities because they're all conditioned for the taco, which is basically Trump gets us in a bad situation like tariffs or like, I don't know, Greenland or like Venezuela or whatever. and then he finds a way out of it, right? And he doesn't escalate things to the point at which it really starts to affect
Ryan Sean Adams:
[22:10] markets. That's what investors think is going to happen. You think that's some complacency. You think that is, it's not your base case. Your base case is that he's not going to find a way out of this quickly.
Michael Nadeau:
[22:20] It's not my base case. This is not a unilateral decision that he can make. And so I just think it's going to be messier. Maybe I'm wrong and maybe there is a way out of this. And, you know, it's tough to bet against him because he seems to be able to, you know, kind of have a pretty good control of things. But I just think this is this is pretty messy. And it's it does take time. Like the economy is a big it takes a lot of time to get get the economy really kind of changing directions and also investor psychology to really kind of kind of catch up to that. So.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[22:57] All right. So if that happens, then maybe we can turn to our crypto assets and Bitcoin in particular, some of the on-chain data. But if that happens, we get another large leg down for NASDAQ, another 15%, let's say. That's not going to be good for our crypto assets. They might hold up better relative to, I don't know, October, what they did early in the crypto bear cycle, because the weak hands have been shaken out. But they're still, I got to think, going to tumble as a result of broader risk on asset losses. So what does the on-chain data tell us right now? And what does that story look like if NASDAQ does take another tumble?
Michael Nadeau:
[23:41] Yeah. So taking a look at what we're seeing on chain here and focusing mostly on just the long-term holder cohort, these are wallets that have been marked that haven't moved any Bitcoin in over at least 155 days at minimum. And so what's interesting here is we, for the first time, we're seeing long-term holders actually stepping into the market. That's good. Which is a good sign, which is a good sign, yes. So people that are long-term holders is typically the smart money of Bitcoin are now looking at this and saying, wait a minute, we may have bottomed here, right? The cycle may have bottomed. We're seeing some strength in the market. What I've been looking at is just like signs that that's a little bit early. And we've seen this in past cycles where the long-term holders did step in a little early. We then had another leg down. And then they step back in again. That's really kind of the hardening of the bottom forming.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[24:38] Because the long-term holders are doing what you're doing is they're nibbling, aren't they? Yeah.
Michael Nadeau:
[24:43] Exactly. I think that's what we're seeing show up in the chart. There is a segment of the market, I think, in the crypto market that thinks Bitcoin has bottomed for the cycle. So people are getting a little bit more aggressive to bid in there. I think this is early. We will know for sure as things start to play out here. I think it's a little bit early.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[25:05] How about the NUPL, the NUPLs? The net unrealized profit loss is another metric you look at. Where are we there? We're not in kind of the red territory, which indicates the best buying opportunity.
Michael Nadeau:
[25:20] Right. And we can see some pretty good symmetry on this chart here where that net unrealized profit loss for long-term holders typically will go below that zero line there and get into a deeper red. We're not there just yet. And it's another indicator to me that, you know, we're probably going to see that line. We may not see like into like deep, deep red zone, but like we're still pretty elevated in terms of like where long-term holder unrealized profits are right now.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[25:53] And MVRV, it's currently 1.61. In each prior bear market, you write, it's dipped below one. So MVRV as well indicates that there's still some time, still some capitulation left in this market.
Michael Nadeau:
[26:09] Yeah, it would be quite an outlier for us to have bottomed and these indicators have not dropped a little bit lower. So this is just giving me a little bit more conviction that there's some metrics, and you could certainly go out and find some metrics that look like maybe we have bottomed.
Michael Nadeau:
[26:27] But I think there's plenty more that say the probability points to probably further weakness.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[26:33] Well, one of them is ETFs. The ETF inflows have actually started to look good here lately. Does that change your opinion at all?
Michael Nadeau:
[26:41] ETFs look very good. So this is a very bullish sign for me, I think, just for the health of Bitcoin and where we're going when we kind of come out of this on the other side. We've seen 2.4 billion of inflows over the last 30 days. That's pretty good. And what's interesting is in terms of the actual holdings of Bitcoin of these ETFs, we've only come down about 5%. So that's like, given that the price has dropped that far, we've only come down 5.2%. At the same time, you know, this is a small segment of the market. This is still only 6.4% of the total Bitcoin that's in these ETFs. And so it's an indicator of what's happening. But I still anchor to like the actual price discovery for Bitcoin happens on chain in the spot markets. And there's still quite a bit of a bit of weakness there when i look at like volumes uh trading volumes pretty low pretty weak uh conditions out there so i think the risk of like you know people just coming in and getting really bullish again is is low i think that probability is low and so it really kind of points towards, potentially more weakness. And I drew a trend line on that just to show like, yes, 2.4 billion inflows is good, but it's nowhere near, you know, what we were doing earlier in the bull market.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[28:03] Okay. Let's translate all of this into price targets, actually. And first up is Bitcoin. So you did change, you did revise the price target of Bitcoin on the week. Talk about that. What is it? What was it before? What is it now? And why'd you do that?
Michael Nadeau:
[28:20] Yeah. So we've been talking about 65K Bitcoin. We were talking about that back in October as kind of our fair value target, which we hit and came down all the way down to low 60s. We've given sort of a range on almost every other asset on the watch list. And I just decided, you know, let's put the range in there for Bitcoin. So $55,000, $65,000. I think anything under $55,000 is going to be ultimately viewed as deep value for this market.
Michael Nadeau:
[28:51] I think probabilities point to us going there at some point. I definitely think we're going to see $50,000 at some point here. The realized price, which we've always gone below in bear markets, is currently actually declining a little bit. So that's now actually down to $54K. So it's possible. We certainly revisit those. So that's why we made the update on Bitcoin, just to give it more of a fair value range there.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[29:21] What does that mean for the TDR portfolio? So if your fair value range for Bitcoin is 55 to 65k, you've made two purchases in the fair value range already. Do you make a third in the fair value range? Are you waiting for deep value below 55k?
Michael Nadeau:
[29:38] TBD as conditions start to play out here. I think that what I'm anchoring to right now is I do think we are going to go into the lower range of that fair value zone. So I would love for my next buy to be in the 50s. And we'll see what the price action is doing. Because I think right now, what we have seen in the markets is 60K looks like it wants to hold. We kind of bounced off that a few times early in February when we came down to those levels. And then we saw the counter trend rally. So what I think may happen is we start to bleed down to those levels again and we might bounce around there again. And then that's kind of like the moment of truth of like, are we going to deep value? Because if we do go to deep value, I think it'll happen quick. If we break that low 60K level, I think we'll go down to like 55 pretty quickly. And you typically bounce out of that, you know, pretty quickly as well. So definitely want to be, you know, definitely, you know, eyeing the markets and we'll be making the decisions as we go. But, you know, these levels, I think, for people that don't want to be as cute as what we're trying to do, you know, these are all pretty good long-term levels, I would say, like if you're planning on holding for one, two, three years out.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[30:57] The fair market value is pretty good, 55K to 65K.
Michael Nadeau:
[31:01] Yeah, or even buying at 70K, right? Like if you're, you know, if you're just trying to get a decent allocation and hold it for a while.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[31:09] So that's the king asset on the watch list, of course, is Bitcoin. You got a price target for that. I know the watch list had a major renovation, let's say, on the website. So you publish that. This is all available for TDR Pro members. I love this. It's fantastic. There's what, 25, 30 assets on this total?
Michael Nadeau:
[31:29] 30 assets, yep.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[31:29] Okay. And then seven of them got an update on fair market value price this week. Am I right about that? Or no, seven are within the fair value ranges.
Michael Nadeau:
[31:39] Correct. Correct. Yeah. So just kind of maybe like a little cycle, you know, awareness update in terms of, you know, some of these price targets that we had laid out earlier in the cycle are now being hit. A lot of all coins are down 80 plus percent. And so we are seeing some of these come into that fair value zone. And it's kind of a matter of, you know, do we think they're going to be deeper value opportunities? And we're doing a lot of work right now on portfolio construction in the back end here and just, determining where we're going to start to, where we want to allocate, what those allocations are going to look like, what the assets are going to look like. We've talked about how we kind of want to see Bitcoin get to its macro low and then start to allocate to some of these other assets. Right. And we're getting, you know, closer to that point where I think when we get the next, if we get the next drawdown for Bitcoin, I think it will be the time to actually start allocating to the longer tail of assets and building the portfolio out.
Michael Nadeau:
[32:43] So we're getting closer to that stage.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[32:45] So for people who are new to this, of course, there's the TDR portfolio and that's the assets that Mike actually holds. And right now it's 50% cash, 50% crypto assets. The bulk of that is Bitcoin. There's a little bit of ETH and some coin stock, I should say. And then there's the watch list, which is kind of the candidate list of assets that Mike is interested in, but that have to prove themselves before they make the TDR portfolio. And for the watch list, those 30 or so assets, Mike has a fair market value for each of those. And below that fair market value is deep value territory. Right now, there are seven assets in the fair market value range. There's only one asset in the deep value territory. And as we go, of course, the TDR will keep you updated on which assets move from the watchlist into the TDR portfolio. But of course, the watchlist is published on a weekly basis. It's always available to TDR Pro members on the website. So you can go check that out. Closing thoughts. So how do we wrap this all up? Markets being complacent. What do you think this means for crypto investors? What would you leave us with?
Michael Nadeau:
[33:56] I know I've been saying this like, you know, broken record every week, but it's patience. I think this is the hardest thing to do right now. Bear markets, you know, it's sort of like when you think you know what's going to play out and it doesn't just happen like as fast as you want it to, or it's like sort of frustrating.
Michael Nadeau:
[34:14] But I think patience is the key thing here. And just anchoring on like, you know, even though we have, even if we have a resolution, I think what was interesting just yesterday with some of the news that came out about potential negotiations, ceasefire, like I would, I would say that's probably like the most bullish news that we could have gotten. And the taco, the sort of, the sort of price action, the market seems to not, it's not as bullish. like the market's sort of fading this ability of the Trump administration to manipulate the markets. I'm starting to see some signs of this. You know, I saw Scott Besson on TV, you know, and it's starting to get cringe. It's a little cringe, just like the way they're trying to manipulate markets. And it just feels like it's a little bit of a stretch. So, That's kind of where where I'm at right now is is lots of patience. I don't think that the Trump administration can kind of like reverse course on this the way that they did with tariffs. And that's kind of why I'm saying patience. And the analog for me is very similar to sort of 2022, where the Fed is their hands are tied and liquidity conditions are not great. Right.
Ryan Sean Adams:
[35:27] Patience is the key. Again, you got to wait for that recency bias to get shaken out, I guess. It's baked into investor psychology, as you say, and it takes a lot to shake that out. You end today's report with this. When everyone agrees it's over, that's usually a sign that the end is near. This is not yet played out. We think the process is starting now and that Bitcoin and crypto broadly will be dragged along. So that's the take on the week. Guys, I want to thank you so much for following us. You got us 100 five-star reviews two weeks ago. Now we've got over 2K subs on our YouTube channel. So thank you for that. Thank you for subscribing everywhere. I think probably the call to action this week is if you haven't checked out the TDR Pro, if you're just a free subscriber on the TDR,
Ryan Sean Adams:
[36:14] Go click the link in the show notes and sign up as a TDR Pro member, you get one month free. And this is a trial. So you get access to the watch list that we just talked about. And you can go look at those prices, incorporate that into your own portfolio. Sometimes I got to admit, Mike, I copy trade what you do. Sometimes I modify it for my own. Sometimes I copy it into Claude and see how to manipulate that with my portfolio. So all of those options are available for TDR Pro members. You can go try that for 30 days. Got to end with this. Of course, you know, none of this has been financial advice. This is our Investor Journal. We're on the journey alongside with you. Until next time, stay curious.