Subscribe
Share
Share
Embed
Every week, Kyle Caldwell and guests take a look at how the biggest stories and emerging trends could affect your investments, with practical tips and ideas to help you navigate your way through. Join the conversation, tell us what you want us to talk about or send us a question to OTM@ii.co.uk. Visit www.ii.co.uk for more investment insight and ideas.
Hello. I'm Sam Benstead from Interactive Investor. Kyle is out of office this week, so I'm stepping in to host our on the money podcast, which is a weekly look at how to get the best out of your savings and investments. Today, it's all about US equities. The American stock market has been a juggernaut over the past decade, and driven by growth at its largest technology companies, it now accounts for a little over 70% of a typical developed world global equity index.
Sam Benstead:While profits have grown, valuations have also become more expensive, which has left many questioning whether The US equity boom is sustainable. It's an especially important question right now with Donald Trump introducing tariffs on key trading partners and US shares dropping in value this year. To help answer these questions, I'm joined by Felix Wintle, manager of the Tyndall North American Fund. Felix, thanks very much for coming on to the podcast.
Felix Wintle:Hi, Sam. Thanks very much for having me.
Sam Benstead:So it's been a tricky few months for The US stock market. So how much of that is down to political uncertainty with Donald Trump back in the White House? I think it's
Felix Wintle:a very large part of it. I think the market's really sort of been contending with a real unknown around tariffs, obviously. But also, there's some real concern around the impacts of Doge, which is the effort to control government spending and cut costs from the government side and what that's going to mean for GDP. So I think the market's gone from a sort of a honeymoon period post the Trump election where people are excited about reforms basically, which I think were much needed. And now we're sort of looking at, Okay, well, the actions that Trump is going to take will have consequences for the economy, I.
Felix Wintle:E. There's going to be less government spending, which affects GDP, and an increase in unemployment because he's already has done some quite sweeping employment cuts, particularly at the federal level. So I think we're going through a period where the market's trying to work out what does that actually mean for GDP growth. It means slower GDP growth and that's been reflected in the equities.
Sam Benstead:Slow growth but a recession, is that possible in The US?
Felix Wintle:Very unlikely in my view. Don't forget that the American economy is still growing at a very healthy clip and trend is typically three, we're around about two and a half. But add in inflation, you've got nominal growth of around five and a half to even six. So depending on your forecast for inflation, we can talk about that a bit later perhaps, but you're looking at a nominal growth of around sort of 5.5. So that's very, very strong.
Felix Wintle:And to actually get into negative territory even on a short term basis, I think is pretty unlikely.
Sam Benstead:So political risk, clearly a factor there. But what about valuations? We saw particularly the Mag seven, US tech shares becoming quite expensive over the past few years, and a little bit of that has been unwound. So has this sell off been linked to people just thinking, actually, The US got a bit expensive, time to take some money out, you know, valuations were a little bit much to us?
Felix Wintle:Yeah. I think there's there's definitely an element of that at play, certainly. And I I think for me the bigger question is not so much valuation on its own. It's more typically equity markets can handle higher valuations if the growth is there. So equity markets really thrive, perform well when there is growth and it's accelerating.
Felix Wintle:And what we're seeing with the top of the market with the Mag seven is for almost all of those names, you're actually seeing a rate of change, deceleration in the growth rate. And that's typically when Mag seven stocks or any growth stock for that matter tends to underperform. And it's funny. It's easy to think of Mag seven, oh, they've been such heroic. And they have been great.
Felix Wintle:I mean, have performed well. But they do go through periods of significant underperformance or or or bad performance. And and 2022 was the last time that happened. Don't forget, the S and P was down. I think it about 28% in in 2022, certainly in the mid twenties.
Felix Wintle:And that's a pretty serious correction. And Tesla was down, I think, 75% that year. Google was down 50%. So it's not like they are impervious to changes in the growth outlook. And I think that's what you're seeing now.
Felix Wintle:And it's interesting when we talk about tech, again, of a very much a beloved sector, and it's been great. But when you look at it, it actually peaked in relative performance terms against the S and P five hundred back in the summer, back in June. So tech has sort of quietly been underperforming the market for, what is that, nine months already. So as you add into that the decelerating growth picture for these companies, I don't think, you know, the max seven is really gonna be the leadership group from here. And it's it's as I say, it's already not been leadership for for around nine months.
Sam Benstead:And of those seven names or big tech stocks more generally, are there any that you own in your portfolio or, you know, any that actually you think could look quite attractive given that the pullback in valuations?
Felix Wintle:Yeah. So we we only own one. We own Amazon, and we have owned all of them, you know, at at various different times. Nvidia, obviously, is one that we owned, but we have been selling out of that and are now completely out of that over the last two to three months. And again, that's for reasons where the interesting about NVIDIA is it's quite different from the other Mag seven stocks because it really is a purely product story.
Felix Wintle:And it's a product story in the most cyclical part of tech, which itself is a cyclical sector. So it obviously sells semiconductors, super high end, you know, we we probably all understand the story. But still, it is a cycle and it is a it is it's great when you're in huge demand, which NVIDIA chips obviously have been. But things like DeepSeek, I think, do change the picture. And that notwithstanding, you'll always have a cycle.
Felix Wintle:And what I mean by that is when you get to the point where supply starts to be more in balance with demand, then these stocks can really dramatically underperform. So I think you've got to be really careful with a stock like Nvidia that you don't hang on too long and get the down cycle as well as the up cycle. So that's just a bit of a tangent. But just in terms of remembering that all these Max seven stocks, although, you know, we tend to talk about them as a group, they are wildly different businesses underneath the surface. Amazon, we we we've retained and we'll we'd look to add to the others on.
Felix Wintle:Yeah, I mean really for me it's not so much about the actual absolute valuation level. It's more about the growth rate and really the rate of change of the growth rate. That's what would get us back into these stocks, and and and we don't see that occurring in the near term right now.
Sam Benstead:So the S and P went into correction briefly, 10% drop. Do you think this is the bottom of this blip? Or actually, we could be heading into a bear market where shares, US shares in dollar terms drop about 20% or or more?
Felix Wintle:Well, I think that's probably unlikely. What's really interesting is the the speed of the correction. As you rightly say, it's 10% practically in a straight line, which in in and of itself is unusual. Markets tend to obviously oscillate up and down, but the trend has been quite markedly negative in the last five, six weeks. And I think it's actually the fifth quickest 10% correction since 1950.
Felix Wintle:So that's a very long time, obviously. So that to me is notable, and I think it's been that dramatic because of the reasons we discussed around complete uncertainty about what the Trump's policies actually mean in the short term. I mean, the longer term picture is, I think what he's doing is absolutely right for the American economy. So longer term, I think a fiscal clearing of houses absolutely needed to happen, and and it's happening. So that's really, really positive.
Felix Wintle:To get your answer your questions specifically, you know, one never knows if it if it could turn into 20%. I I think I'd say that that's unlikely because these things tend to get priced in so quickly. And that's really what you've seen with sharp, sharp drop is a pricing in very, very quickly of uncertainty. So we look at the market not just in terms of looking at the fundamental stories of stocks, but we also use a top down macro process, which helps us identify turning points in the cycle. And it's a quantitative model, so just numbers.
Felix Wintle:And it really just tracks the rate of change of growth and the rate of change of inflation. And what that model is saying that we're probably still going to have a bit of a growth deceleration in Q2. But past that, we should inflect higher again. And that will be sort of starting, well, basically as soon as sort of Q3 starts. So we're still quite cautious near term.
Felix Wintle:By that, I mean a quarter. And we'll be sort of ramping back up in sort of portfolio beta terms in q three.
Sam Benstead:Trump's tariffs, how do you see those playing out for different types of businesses? Who who are the winners and and possible losers here?
Felix Wintle:Yeah. It's it's it's interesting, isn't it? It's it's quite hard to tell really. Not least because the it keeps on changing what he's gonna do and the extent, and we had just had some news over the weekend about perhaps they're gonna be less bad. So I think there's certain sectors which are clearly gonna be be affected.
Felix Wintle:As for actual winners, I mean, the problem with tariffs is it it is quite a regressive step. One of the interesting ways we've been sort of talking about it with clients is that everyone assumes that tariffs are going to be inflationary. And obviously, that makes a lot of sense because you're making goods more expensive. But actually, there's a deflation ary or disinflationary angle to it too, in that if you're going to slap a 20% tariff, well, maybe I'll go and buy whatever I want to buy from somewhere else. And the market is very quick at adapting and changing.
Felix Wintle:So is it actually disinflationary? And one of the interesting things about inflation is that I think most people can sort of see it's likely to be higher for longer. And we wouldn't necessarily disagree with that. But also don't forget inflationary well, CPI peaked in January at three percent. So that's 3% pretty low.
Felix Wintle:I mean, the target is 2%, but that's slightly anyway, I mean, it wasn't that long ago there were 9% inflation. So it's already at 3%. And actually, the last reading was 2.8. And our forecast reckon it will be 2.4 when they report in a couple of weeks' time. So you're actually already seeing a disinflationary reality despite all the headlines around tariffs.
Felix Wintle:So it's quite difficult to sort of be explicit about winners and losers because it's there's so much going on there. You know, we we we're not even sure whether they're gonna be inflationary or disinflationary or or possibly they're both. At at the first instance, inflationary and then disinflationary. So it's it's quite a complicated picture. But we're not trying to go out there and insurrect who's gonna win from the tariffs, but obviously very mindful of the effect the tariffs are gonna have.
Sam Benstead:So you split the fund into core ideas and tactical investments. On the tactical side, where are you finding opportunities today?
Felix Wintle:Yeah. So on the tactical side, we've, in the last couple of months, tactically got a bit more defensive. And so what that means is selling some of our slightly racier stocks, so things in tech and in consumer discretionary, and picked up slightly more defensive shares. So things like AT and T, the telco company, and T Mobile, which they're actually both in quite a good spot fundamentally as well in that they're taking share from from Verizon which is which is the third player. But they're much lower beta.
Felix Wintle:That that's what I mean by by by defensive. In markets like we we have just had, It's really important to have, in my view, is to lower the beat of the fund so you don't get caught out or lose a lot of upside that you might have had. And you look at stocks, so Tesla was another example of a stock that we owned but sold because it's one of the highest beta stocks in the market. So anyway, that's an example. But on the longer side, on sort of some more longer term side, one share we've been picking up recently is Take Two Interactive, which is interesting because it is the owner of Rockstar Games which makes Grand Theft Auto and that's gonna launch Grand Theft Auto six is gonna launch in November of this year and that's interesting because it's Grand Theft Auto, the game, is the most valuable entertainment IP that there is that's ever been sold.
Felix Wintle:So it's a big event. Last launched GTA V was ten years ago. So a much anticipated event and that's a stock that we think is really interesting. It's held up very well in this recent volatility and we think it's gonna have they typically do have a really good run into the launch of of of this game. So quite excited about that as an example of something we picked up more more recently.
Sam Benstead:And on the core ideas side, is this a bit of the portfolio that you don't really change too much? And are there some comments that you've held for a really long time in there?
Felix Wintle:Yeah. We we do tend to yeah. That that's the whole idea of the core. Longer term ideas that we can we can sort of leave and and and and have compound for us. So an an example of that would be Axon Enterprises.
Felix Wintle:Axon makes tasers, the sort of non lethal device used by police forces around the world. It's funny taser because it's one of those companies where it used to be called taser international, they changed it into Axon. But it's one of those products where the branding is is you I mean, knows what a TASER is. Right? I mean, that kind of thing.
Felix Wintle:But it the actual global penetration of the product is actually really quite low. So it's an interesting sort of dynamic there. But they also make body cams. And the the really interesting part of the story for me is that the fact that they if you narrow it up most of their sales are still in America. But what you have today, which is even more important these days, is you have a body cam which will record an arrest, for example.
Felix Wintle:But then they have the AI software backing it up. So that'll automatically write the report of what's happened as per the footage from the body cam. So not only does that save time, they reckon it saves police officers four hours a day not writing reports, but there's an accuracy element as well. So that's a really great product which police forces now in America and also much more globally now really want to have. And from an investors point of view it's great because you're moving from a company with a profit margin around hardware into a profit margin around software And software, you're getting a 20 margin uplift from sort of 40 to 60 in round terms on that.
Felix Wintle:So that helps the stock work. So that's a good example of a company which we anticipate holding for the long term. We've owned it for about two and a half years and expect it to continue to perform well as it takes its products to a global audience.
Sam Benstead:So that's a big success story of AI that goes beyond just just buying chips and and and investing in the cloud. Are there any other examples where companies are actually embracing AI and using it effectively to to grow the business?
Felix Wintle:Yeah. It's a very interesting question because there aren't that many. I mean, lots of companies talk about it. I mean, everybody talks about it. AI this, AI that.
Felix Wintle:But actually, real useful products that you can monetize at scale are still pretty few and far between. Mean, you think about Copilot, the Microsoft AI agent in effect, you know, isn't very good, doesn't really monetize. I think the obviously, what we can all see the future, the the promise of AI is absolutely huge. And I I think some areas like health care would be I this is happening now. Again, it's hard to actually access in terms of investing.
Felix Wintle:But if you could run all the critical trials that have ever been done through AI and figure out some kind of utility that hasn't been tried. That's a huge optimisation of existing data which would almost certainly throw up some really, really interesting possibilities in terms of therapy development. So we can all see, and I think obviously there's lots of other use cases for AI, but actual, to your point, actual monetization of it today isn't really there. Apart from, as you rightly say, I think Axon's a very good example of something that's tangible, usable, works, and is also monetizable.
Sam Benstead:You own about 30 companies in this fund. Have you been using the sell off to add new shares or to invest more in in companies that are suffering a bit right now?
Felix Wintle:Well, a new addition to the fund literally in the last week or two. But, yes, we've added to Spotify, which again is is a really interesting story that we like because it's bit like Netflix, we've also have been adding to. But the the the story there is, you know, really it's quite interesting. When you have a downturn or a correction like we've had and there's a lot of uncertainty, consumer discretionary type businesses tend to of get it in the neck a bit because people think, oh my god, everyone's going to stop spending. And that to a certain extent can be true and particularly if we've got a slightly more challenged economic picture in the near term.
Felix Wintle:But the view very much around Netflix and now Spotify is here are two businesses where people, the stickiness of the user base is incredibly high. So people tend not to churn away. People tend to do churn away from other subscription services. But Netflix, again, there is competition there. Particularly in America, you have other entertainment subscription services.
Felix Wintle:But Netflix is the one that everybody is definitely the last to go if it goes at all. And Spotify has also proved to be really a service that people want to really have. So that's been areas that we've wanted to add to on weakness. Where else have we been adding? Yeah, actually some new positions in insurance as well.
Felix Wintle:That's been a part of financials which has been performing well. And the whole financials sector has been performing well, and that's really a lot around rates and the steepening yield curve. And so we've been taking advantage of that as well.
Sam Benstead:And Trump is placed to support US businesses, potentially through reduced corporation taxes. Is that something on your your radar, the the positive impact of of Trump in office? So outside of tariffs and the uncertainty around that, there are actually sectors that could really benefit from him and his his his traditionally pro business stance.
Felix Wintle:Yeah. I think so. It's very much, I don't know, sort of America First, and that has meant, yeah, tariffs. But it also, as you rightly say, does mean tax cuts, and it means tax cuts at the corporate level. But also well, let's be careful about how we talk about it.
Felix Wintle:It's not really tax cuts, but it's extension of existing tax cuts. So it's not new cuts. But in effect, yeah, I mean, think that's right. And there's an individual level taxation, income tax cuts which are gonna get extended as well. So yeah, I think that's a very positive message and he's basically using the tariffs to try and pay for the extension of those cuts.
Felix Wintle:So yeah, I think it's a positive step for America both corporately and for the consumer. And also there's a real effort to get the industrial base back onshore. You know, this reshoring of we hear about it quite a lot in terms of the semiconductor industry building factories to make fab, sort factories that make chips based in Arizona, based in Nevada. And that does generate a lot of employment. And it's just, you know, obviously, also a strategic imperative now that they wanna get out of Taiwan and other areas and and have it all homegrown.
Felix Wintle:But, again, that's a real benefit to the domestic economy, and and that's something that Trump is you know, really supports, and I think that's that's a big positive for him.
Sam Benstead:My thanks to Felix, and thank you for listening to this episode of On the Money. If you enjoyed it, please follow the show in your podcast app and do tell a friend about it. If you get a chance, leave us a review or rating in your podcast app too. You can join the conversation, ask questions to tell us what you'd like us to talk about via email on 0tm@ii.co.uk. And in the meantime, you can find more information and practical pointers on how to get the most out of your savings and investments on the Interactive Investor website at ii.co.uk.
Sam Benstead:We'll see you next week.