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Nobody warned us this war was coming. Nobody told us what was really behind it. I sat down with Martin Armstrong, one of the most accurate economic and geopolitical forecasters alive, to get the full picture on Iran. We break down why Netanyahu's strategy failed, what the Strait of Hormuz closure really means for your grocery bill, why Trump cannot deliver a peace deal no matter how hard he tries, and what Russia and China stepping in means for the rest of the world. Plus his specific outlook on gold, oil, and what you should do right now to protect your family. Hard truth from someone with a 50-year front-row seat to how the world actually works.
đź”— Martin Armstrong: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com | https://www.socratesplatform.com
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Seth Holehouse is a TV personality, YouTuber, podcaster, and patriot who became a household name in 2020 after his video exposing election fraud was tweeted, shared, uploaded, and pinned by President Donald Trump — reaching hundreds of millions worldwide.
Titled The Plot to Steal America, the video was created with a mission to warn Americans about the communist threat to our nation—a mission that’s been at the forefront of Seth’s life for nearly two decades.
After 10 years behind the scenes at The Epoch Times, launching his own show was the logical next step. Since its debut, Seth’s show “Man in America” has garnered 1M+ viewers on a monthly basis as his commitment to bring hope to patriots and to fight communism and socialism grows daily. His guests have included Peter Navarro, Kash Patel, Senator Wendy Rogers, General Michael Flynn, and General Robert Spalding.
He is also a regular speaker at the “ReAwaken America Tour” alongside Eric Trump, Mike Lindell, Gen. Flynn.
Welcome to Man in America, a voice of reason in a world gone mad. I'm your host, Seth Hullhouse. The war in Iran, just like almost every recent war, started off as a, hey. We're gonna be in and out. It's gonna be quick, couple of weeks.
Speaker 1:No troops over there. And it continues to be anything but that. It continues to be further escalation, peace deals that fall through, whether it's because Israel bombed something or some other reason or a mean tweet. And so the whole situation continues to spiral out of control, but simultaneously, you're seeing an increase in a lot of the war activity over in Ukraine, tension around Taiwan, and so much more. And so joining us today to just try to help make sense of this really, really messy situation over there is Martin Armstrong.
Speaker 1:Now if you're not familiar with Martin Armstrong, he's really a legend, especially from the perspective of financial forecasting. Now what he's done is he built what you can almost call an AI system called Socrates. He built it around forty years ago that was basically pulling in data, financial market data, all kinds of data from around the world, but then putting that up against historical cycles, financial cycles, war cycles, and then predicting when events would be happening. So he's been his his system has predicted multiple wars, currency collapses, and so much more. But he's also someone that has been involved in the global economy at a very, very high level for many, many decades.
Speaker 1:I mean, as he says in the interview today, was even managing Gaddafi's money at one point. And so he understands global finance, but he also understands The Middle East in a way that very few people do. And so he's gonna do his best to help us make sense of what's going on. Why is this push for war? Why is it that Netanyahu is doing x, y, and z, and the neocons are doing the same thing?
Speaker 1:And where this all leads to, and what's happening in the next couple of months, next couple of years, and so much more. So hopefully, this is just a helpful discussion and understanding what's going on and helping us to make sense of it. So please enjoy this interview with Martin Armstrong. Mr. Martin Armstrong, it's great, and it's such an honor to have you back on the show for yeah.
Speaker 1:Just thank you for being here with us. I'm really looking forward to picking your brain right now.
Speaker 2:Well, get in line because a lot of other people, Except at least I don't have to scream at you.
Speaker 1:Hopefully hopefully, you don't. Hopefully, you don't. Well, so let I have a lot of questions, but I really, really wanna hone in on the Middle East. And you're one of the few people that has helped me to make sense of what I view as a really, really difficult to make sense of region. And so looking at the Iran war, looking at Trump I I mean, even just recently, there's this act this Axiose report that's coming out saying, allegedly, that Trump told Netanyahu in their latest converse phone call that you're effing crazy.
Speaker 1:You'd be in prison if it weren't for me. I'm saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this. Now, whether this is true I mean, Axios doesn't have the perfect track record, but, I mean, you could see how it could be true.
Speaker 1:So what what do you see? Because I when I look at the Iran war, we're being told from the very beginning it's gonna be quick, couple of weeks, we're in there when we're out, yet the whole situation is dragging on and on. The Hormuz is some sort of economic weapon. Not sure who it's pointed at. Trump and Netanyahu seem to be kind of tit for tat.
Speaker 1:They're in they're agreeing on something until Trump has a peace deal, then Israel goes and bombs another country, and the peace deal blows up. I mean, it just seems like we're stuck in some sort of World War three Groundhog Day. So how do you how do you make sense of this?
Speaker 2:That's probably a good way to put it. I mean, as you know, from the be you know, I grew up in the Philadelphia area. Netanyahu went to grade school and high school in Philadelphia. Alright? He hung out with the Crystals.
Speaker 2:I knew Bill Crystal. He spoke at one of our conferences, but it was his father Irving that started the whole neocon movement. So I knew where he was coming from, from way back when. Alright. I warned them that he tried to sell this going in and destroying Iran prior to the last three presidents, And they all said no.
Speaker 2:And the way it was pitched this time was that the success of Venezuela, she will be in and out real fast. And Netanyahu, his game plan is always to assassinate the head of state. In '25, you can look up, he assassinated a whole bunch of military leaders there. So Iran is one of the most highly educated countries in the region for a lot of different issues. But so they figured out what his what his game plan is.
Speaker 2:So they restructured their government, and they created four tiers so that if you took out the ayatollah, because they knew he that's what his agenda was, that the state doesn't fall apart, that those below it can act even independently. Okay? And I will mention this now because this may be ahead of schedule, but as you know, we have also offices in China and Thailand, etcetera. Taiwan has now adopted the Iran model. It's decentralizing control so that if you take out the leadership, the snake body keeps going.
Speaker 2:Cutting off the head doesn't work. So Netanyahu basically sold this. Yes. He knew when the meeting was gonna be taking place, and he attacked to kill the Ayatollah. And the sales job was to take out the head, the whole government falls.
Speaker 2:But they knew his plan. And so it has not happened. Okay? So I do have a a clip from Iran. A I'll post it on the blog maybe today or tomorrow.
Speaker 2:A video clip of an internal meeting of them preparing for war. And, basically, they laid out the strategy, and you can see from their perspective, they knew The US would be in attacking bases. It's it was all, you know, choreographed. Unfortunately, our neocons are in Netanyahu's corner, and they did not warn Trump. You know, I got, you know, phone calls.
Speaker 2:People are pissed off because I said I did a conference in Canada, and I said, you know, first of all, I would have secured the Strait Of Hormuz before the first bomb fell. And then I get, well, how do you know? I mean, that's been part of the agenda. I don't know how you my question is how did you not know? You know?
Speaker 2:But so we're looking at a situation now where Netanyahu has tried to sabotage every peace opportunity that Trump comes up with. And so you had some of the neocons coming out saying, oh, Trump's just surrendering. He's trying to get out. He's not achieving his objectives. Well, the objectives were Netanyahu's, not ours.
Speaker 2:Alright? This nonsense that, oh, we have to take out their nuclear weapon because they can fire on The United States. You know? Good luck. I mean, they don't have a missile to go that far.
Speaker 2:But, you know, it sounds good. He had to say that to get our attention, to make it sound like we're you know, Trump was acting to protect America instead of Israel. And, unfortunately, in these peace negotiations and what gets me frustrated is that I've warned everybody about this, you know, that Trump really cannot strike a peace deal. Because the main thing that Iran wants is a guarantee that they won't be invaded again. And Trump can't deliver that because he can't you know, Netanyahu says whatever you agreed to, we're not party to.
Speaker 2:Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire. You know, it's he just wants war, period. And he wants The United States to pay for it in dollars and blood. And, you know, the problem we have here is you have the Shia religious clerics who basically see this as like Armageddon. Netanyahu, the same way.
Speaker 2:So we have two people basically on each side who think this is the end times. Who who's coming back may be may be different, but it's still the same scenario that somebody's coming back.
Speaker 1:Do you think that it ties into the the rebuilding of the temple? Is that's part of this?
Speaker 2:Yeah. And then you have the the Christian zealots in there as well. So you've got three people working off of prophecies wherever they come from, bible, you know, various different ways. But they all pretty much say the same thing. There's this one giant war.
Speaker 2:Alright? And then somebody's coming back. So it's, this is different than, like, Ukraine or even Taiwan. I mean, there, it's it's like, I'll give you a boardwalk for Park Place. You know?
Speaker 2:You know, we're talking about religious issues here.
Speaker 1:And like it's a holy war. I It's not a geopolitical conflict, but it's a holy war. Right? You've got Christians, Jews, and Muslims all right? It's
Speaker 2:Stirring it all up, shaking it, and, you know, whatever. It's a so my concern is that you have a significant Israeli lobby in Capitol Hill. And you're you're seeing some of these people advocating that The US merges military with Israel.
Speaker 1:Not but Martin, you're you're not allowed to question that because it's anti Semitic to question any of this stuff.
Speaker 2:It's look, I had, you know, I had two Jewish uncles on each one on each side. I have a lot of Jewish friends, and they don't agree with Netanyahu. Alright? So it's not a
Speaker 1:Jewish Oh, I agree.
Speaker 2:Person. I agree. Mean, there's a lot of people in Israel that protest against Netanyahu too. So it's like any country. I mean, there's always people that are gonna be, you know, one side, one you're not you never get a 100% everybody for one liter.
Speaker 2:It's just never historically, I don't think it's ever happened, really. But I think this is very serious because our computer is showing from about mid June going into August. It's heating up. Wish the hell I was wrong. It is not my personal opinion.
Speaker 2:You know, it's it's been more of a personal curse to some degree.
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Speaker 2:When the computer first was, you know, forecasting war back in the eighties, like I've told you before, you know, the the Central Bank of Lebanon had called me in, and they had data. They wanted to ask if we could do a model in the Lebanese pound. So we did. And now came and said, your country's gonna fall apart in eight days. I said, something's gonna be wrong with this data.
Speaker 2:And very calmly, they then said, what currency does it recommend? I said, well, the Swiss franc. That's very strange. You know? And eight days later, civil war began.
Speaker 2:Then I came to realize they already saw the capital flows. So they were coming to me not for that forecast, but for the timing. And then we had a major Saudi client who was one of the biggest in in, shipping. And he calls and says, you know, Iraq's gonna start attacking shipping in The Gulf tomorrow. What do you think gold's gonna do?
Speaker 2:I said, you tell me where you're gonna start tomorrow? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. What do you think?
Speaker 2:You know? So over the years, I've learned that somebody always knows in advance, and that's what the computer picks up. So even the October seventh Hamas attack, all the defense stocks started moving up a week before. You know? So, you know, I don't give a shit who it is.
Speaker 2:I mean, the SEC used our stuff on 09/11. They were looking for hoop off puts on airlines a few days before. You know? It's just the way it is. You know?
Speaker 2:That, you know, the terrorists were doing it. You know? When I had an office in Geneva, I mean, we were advising just about everybody in The Middle East, and then a group came in, and they're all trading futures and stuff for I mean, it had the counter revolutionary army of Iran, trading markets to buy weapons to go against the ayatollah. You know? I was managing money, I thought, for the Noga Hilton chain.
Speaker 2:It turned out, you know, there was a building that they had bought in New York, Herald Square. And next thing I know, I got the FBI in my office asking me where Marcos Gold is. I said, what are you talking about? And here at the building, I thought part of that chain was owned by a first name, Marcos from The Philippines, you know, and then how strange it it would get. You know, I was actually managing money for Marcos, Gaddafi out of and Khashoggi, the arms dealer.
Speaker 1:So you at one point, you were managing Gaddafi's some Gaddafi's money?
Speaker 2:Oh, this is back in the eighties. You know? They all got different everybody was doing this. They were, you know, talking about, you know, even an Iran Contra. It's this is what happened.
Speaker 2:You know, perhaps you'll remember Hillary. She made a couple $100,000 on a cattle trade back then. They came to me and said, she wasn't even trading. She was in a in a meeting. You know?
Speaker 2:Okay. And this is how it works. You know, it's it it they've been trading futures for a very long time. So you're gonna begin to see the money moving one way or another, and that's what the computer tends to pick up. It can't tell me that you've done it versus somebody else.
Speaker 2:But so it's not looking very good from basically, from the second week of June going into August. It just looks like it's escalating. And, as we've just seen with Netanyahu, really bringing up the attacks aggressively on Lebanon to undermine Trump's peace deal. He is not about to let him out. And what's happened I don't know what's out in the press yet.
Speaker 2:I guess, after the time I get my news from phone calls. But I believe Russia and China are now coming to support Iran more because of this. So it it's it you know, it's just getting very, very interesting. I mean, actually, after this show, I gotta do an interview on Russian TV. So I like to you know, if people say, are you on You're rushing?
Speaker 2:I say, yes. I'd like to at least hear the questions. You know? But look. This is a tough time where Too many people are fooling around, got their finger in the pie here, and I don't think they understand.
Speaker 2:My sense of this dealing with a lot of these people, it's been largely that they assume we have the largest military. Therefore, we automatically win. And that's just not the case. Persia did, the Greeks defeated them. When the Greeks had the biggest, you know, Roman defeated them.
Speaker 2:I mean, it's this is you know, Carthage was the biggest. They were defeated by Rome. I mean, it doesn't mean that just because you have the biggest, you automatically win. History just says that is just a false assumption. So Trump is trying to back out of Taiwan.
Speaker 2:I don't know what was truly in the press. At the same time, you have Macron wanting to be the leader of Europe. He flew over to meet with Xiang before Trump. And my sources said that he flat out right, said that Europe will no longer participate in any war other than European territory, them versus Russia. And so they will not participate in defending Taiwan.
Speaker 2:So when Trump got there, that's why Xiang was pushing him on that issue. Trump, I think, is trying to get out of that. When he did leave, he did make a public statement. He recommended the chip companies move set up offices in The United States. And, I mean, I'll tell you what I warned these people about.
Speaker 2:I said, if I was on the other side of the table, I'm gonna use Iran as to drain all your resources, the same way we used Ukraine on Russia. And then when you're occupied, Russia goes after the rest of Ukraine. Taiwan is taken by China, and North Korea goes into the South. I said, what the hell are you gonna do then? Are you gonna fight on four fronts?
Speaker 2:And they just kinda look at me like, oh, that would never happen. I said, really? I I don't wouldn't count on it. Putin at this stage in the game, he's raining down supersonic missiles on him mainly because Zelensky is like Netanyahu. He doesn't give two shits about his country.
Speaker 2:I mean, he was, I believe, a neo Nazi before. He was like Soros. He married a Christian girl. His children are baptized. He only said he was Jewish after he became president.
Speaker 2:And I think that was a diversion to cover up his past. You can look on my side. I have a clip of him on stage before being president making jokes about confiscating assets from Jews and Russians. Alright. These neo Nazis are it's there's no talking to them.
Speaker 2:I mean, you know, as you know, we've had, you know, staff one in Kyiv and Donetsk on both sides. And the two sides wouldn't even talk to each other. We had a conference in in in Athens, and the one from Kyiv refused to fly back the quickest way because the plane just stopped in in Moscow. I mean, this is what you're dealing with. It's it's just it's irrational hatred.
Speaker 2:And you have Trump easing up sanctions because of the Strait Of Hormuz to help Europe, etcetera. And once Zelenskyy starts attacking all the the energy production, You know, he doesn't give a shit about the world. Oh, they're gonna make more money? I gotta stop that. He's got his own agenda, the same as Netanyahu.
Speaker 2:And, honestly, I think the two of them should be locked up and let them have a cage match. You know? It's it's pathetic. I mean, it but this is where we're at. You know?
Speaker 2:And I don't see I think get prepared for getting more aggressive going into August. And Netanyahu knows he's got Trump in the palm of his hand, and Trump can't get out. And then you got Zelensky, who first of all, the dumbass. They're Russians. They're Russian people there.
Speaker 2:Okay? We had staff there. They even translated the movie, the the forecaster, into Russian for Russian TV. And so he doesn't wanna give up the dumb boss, but they're the ones who started this. You can look it up.
Speaker 2:In 2014, right after that revolution, what did they do? They started dragging Russian people off the streets in Odessa, killing them, beating them. They chased him into the trade union building, set it on fire, and burned them alive. This is Ukrainians. Okay?
Speaker 2:The hatred is beyond belief. That's why they then moved to separate. And then their their bullshit is, oh, Putin interfered in the elections. They don't really wanna separate. You're killing them?
Speaker 2:I think they wanna leave. You know, I I don't know anybody in the Donbas that wants to be part of Ukraine. It's just the way it is. I mean, you you know, you you you're into ethnic cleansing. And Ukraine, people should realize, is the motherland of ethnic cleansing.
Speaker 2:Not just Jews, anybody who wasn't Ukrainian. And hit because Hitler promised that if they supported him, that's why they're called neo Nazis. If they supported him, he would give them their own country. So they killed, you know, Hungarians, Romanians, Polish, killed an awful lot of Polish and refused to apologize for it.
Speaker 1:So
Speaker 2:Why did anybody get anything? I don't know.
Speaker 1:So, you mentioned escalation, escalation going from June into August. And I know, you know, because I've talked to you, we've had a lot of interviews in the past couple of years, and you've always talked about 2027 is when in the 2030, is when things really start really start boiling and breaking apart. And so, looking at even what I'm seeing in terms of how the shutdown of the Strait Of Hormuz is if not just obviously, we have spikes in oil prices, but a lot of the supply instantly. Right? These are chain you know, these are supply chains that are months out oftentimes.
Speaker 1:And so, you know, what do you see what do you see happening over the course of, say, the next twelve months if this if this continues to escalate, if we start to see, as you mentioned, potentially, you know, activity happening in Taiwan, increased activity happening in in The Ukraine. What does the world look like potentially over the course of the next year?
Speaker 2:I I did a report kind of, like, on this because what's off everybody's radar is, as you know, we also have offices in Thai in in Dubai. And Dubai, Iran fired more missiles at Dubai than they did Israel. Why? Because Dubai has become the financial Switzerland. When the Swiss were confiscating anybody's money, there was Russians saying, oh, well, you knew Putin.
Speaker 2:So a lot of people don't realize, but what Europe has done is and they say Russian assets that are frozen, some several 100,000,000,000, includes houses, yachts, things of this nature. It's not cash, and it's not the government money. They would just say, oh, you knew Putin. You were offended his. We're confiscating all your shit too.
Speaker 2:So what happened was Switzerland basically took a gun to its head and and pulled the trigger. Anybody with half a brain began to move. They can't be trusted anymore. So the money basically went to Dubai and Singapore. So we've had offices in Dubai for years, and I've known the government.
Speaker 2:They even came to, I think, sort of 1985 conference, and everybody's there. I think a drone hit one of the offices above us. But what they generally don't know about Dubai is that they built about a $30,000,000,000 AI project there. Everybody is there. Amazon, OpenAI, you name it.
Speaker 2:And they attacked that. Now they didn't do permanent damage, but they took it down for about a week. The net result? The banking system went down. We couldn't even wire any money to our staff.
Speaker 2:I don't think that they ever reported that in the news. But and what other people don't realize is that during COVID, oil went down to $6.50. So all the Gulf States couldn't function. They barred aggressively. Okay?
Speaker 2:Assuming oil would go back up to 100, and they would then pay it off, which they never did. So Iran and attacking Dubai and The Gulf States has a little bit more than just attacking, their ability to produce energy. Taking them out, they can't sell oil. They can't honor their debts. They fail in their debts, and you create a banking crisis.
Speaker 2:Alright? So that's part of their real strategy here. Taking out a a tanker, alright, you eliminate 3,000,000 barrels of oil. Take out the refineries, and they can't fill up the tankers. So it's a lot more serious than people realize.
Speaker 2:And they're strategically, they understand what's going on here. They're not dumb. Alright? You're not playing with Venezuela. And like I said, I'll post this internal video from the Iranian government showing a training session for war.
Speaker 2:They've been planning for this for, like, twenty years. Alright? They have one of the biggest stockpiles of, ballistic missiles that I think it was ever created. And at least what I've been told, they still probably have 70%. They are also very strategically aware of how to win a war by attrition.
Speaker 2:They have sent $30,000, you know, drones in, and we have to send them, you know, one or two, you know, million and a half missiles to take it out. So they are rewriting how to wage a war. And that's, you know, it it's significant. You know, Israel has used up a lot of its missile base already. And a lot of times, they would have to send a Patriot missile.
Speaker 2:Because they're not always that accurate, they'd have to send two to take a $30,000 drone down. So it it is definitely more complicated, and it's rewriting history. This is why Netanyahu doesn't wanna let The US out. And at the same time, you're seeing Putin using hypersonic because they can't take them down. So war is changing a little bit here.
Speaker 2:How you wage it, things of this nature, drones, robots, it's changing. Definitely is changing.
Speaker 1:And as this as this continues, how do you see it affecting oil prices, gold prices, commodities? How is this situation, which, again, it appears to really have no end in sight, as the days stretch on, how does that ripple across the other areas, such as, again, commodities, oil, gold, etcetera?
Speaker 2:Well, what also comes out of The Gulf is sulfuric acid. You need sulfuric acid to mine copper. So, I mean and then cutting off the energy, I can tell you, you know, from our offices in Thailand, they there's no gasoline. They couldn't even get gasoline for a motorbike. Alright?
Speaker 2:However, that also applied to diesel. What happened with the diesel is you need diesel for the fishing fleet. No diesel, no food. So it it ripples across so many different areas. I mean, look.
Speaker 2:I I think gold is going up, you know, probably into around 2032. I mean, you're gonna have, you know, oscillations back and forth. But, you know, I would expect probably the next major resistance area, you know, in the low six thousands. Oil oil can still go and eventually even test the 200 area. Gasoline, I would, you know, would not rule out reaching nine in the years ahead.
Speaker 2:I mean, this is we're in a real mess here. It's you know, I mean, nobody would really listen to me. I would warn them, This is this is not one you wanna pick with. And on top of that, you have the cables that are connecting the banking system of the world east to west. And they were laid where?
Speaker 2:At the bottom of the harmonics. Alright. I warned them. I said, you know, if I was them, I would have sent divers down, put some, you know, charges on it, give me any shit, I push the button. I mean, it it they have a lot more leverage than people expected.
Speaker 2:And I think if you look at the litany, it's almost verbatim for Iraq. You know, Dick Cheney saying, oh, this will be just weeks, not months, eight years. They always say the same thing. You can look up, you know, Tony Blair's apology. It's on YouTube.
Speaker 2:We thought we were, you know, freeing the people from Saddam. We had no re no idea that we were subjecting him to sectarian violence. You know? Fine. Saddam was a dictator.
Speaker 2:However, he prevented everybody from killing each other. Alright? And this is just a real quagmire. And the the two worst people pushing for, you know, war here is is Zelensky and Netanyahu. And, you know, Zelensky is out there.
Speaker 2:Oh, you know, Putin's planning a major attack to wipe out Kyiv. Well, you have rejected every possible peace deal. Let the damn Donbas go. They're Russians anyhow. He's he's outlawed all their religion, outlawed their language.
Speaker 2:I mean, you know, it's like Spain coming in and taking Americans and now everybody has to now speak Spanish. And it's illegal if you speak English. I mean, you can't do this kind of stuff. You know? And it's just it's not conducive to healing any kind of a situation whatsoever.
Speaker 2:So he's turned it into a religious war as well.
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Speaker 1:All the links and information are in the description below. How much of this push for war, whether it's from the neocons or really whoever, how much of it do you think is actually tied to the global financial system? Because I'm seeing more and more reports coming out. Even Michael Burry came out recently talking about the AI bubble. And it just seems that there's a lot of different indicators and a lot of quite intelligent independent analysts that are looking at the, you know, the global markets and the stock market and saying, This is a giant bubble.
Speaker 1:Even looking at Florida, I think Florida, which, if I remember correctly, you're down in Florida, I saw recently, let's see, what was it that it was, let me go, let me pull it up here, because I just had it up, I was looking through this ahead of time, about how the housing market in Florida is right here. Let's see. That as of this morning, 12% of Florida's for sale homes are in active fire sale territory. Meaning that they're sitting on the market, and sellers actively cutting prices and increasingly increasing frequency of those price cuts. You have that's an indicator.
Speaker 1:And as I mentioned, as well, Michael Burry, which I have his post right here. Here's another post, this is from, just a couple of days ago. How Michael Burry, oops, is saying that he published the exact pipeline that moves retiree savings into Elon Musk AI data centers. He's warning about this because I think it was was it Larry Fink? I think out saying they're gonna be using savings, everything to fund data centers.
Speaker 1:But you've got other people, you know, Burry in a in a separate post talking about the AI bubble. So there's just a lot of indicators that that something kind of big is shifting and something is happening to this financial system and and this this debt based system. And so how much do you think that ties to the the war and the push for war?
Speaker 2:Well, main reason you see The US stock market making the buys has been foreign capital coming in. I mean, because these guys have been calling for the Great Crash for at least the last year, and the market kept making new highs. Mainly, buy the big cap stuff, the Dow, things of that nature. As far as AI, I, you know, I don't see it as a evil bubble per se. You know, in the .com bubble was anything that had a .com or the end of it was going up.
Speaker 2:Here, we do have actually productivity. And what's happened with it, it has not resulted in laying off tremendous, you know, jobs. It's actually enhanced them. I mean, our own system, which is probably the oldest AI around with a forty some year track record, It writes it's following, you know, about 1,500 markets around the world and publishes it every day. There aren't that many analysts in the world to be able to do that.
Speaker 2:And it's efficient in the sense that the main reason institutions use us is because it's the same model globally. Whereas if you're an institution, you have to, okay, fine, segregate everything, because then you need an adviser in The US, one in Canada, one in this, and each one uses a different methodology. So that's why we have some of biggest in the world. We've got clients well over a trillion dollar portfolios. Mainly because it's efficient.
Speaker 2:So productivity has been increasing with AI. It hasn't been necessarily resulting in massive layoffs, as a lot of people were talking about. But a lot of companies are concerned about their AI bills have gone up quite a bit because their employees are using too much of it. You're going to see the debt issue more outside The United States than inside. Macron is really pushing very hard for war with Russia.
Speaker 2:Now I've said that before on your show with that, you know, I got good sources in France, and he was always saying that if they could conquer Russia, they get to 75,000,000,000,000 in natural resources. That's twice the size US national debt, and Europe will rise to lead the world. And he'll be at the head of it, and The United States and Canada will be reduced to the subservient colonies that we should have been. Now a lot of people thought that was kind of nuts. The head of NATO came out of a couple months ago, and you can look that one up, and he came out publicly and said, warning about what I've been hearing for at least three almost two years now.
Speaker 2:Is if you think you can conquer Russia without The United States, you're dreaming. And that's the head of NATO. Europe is in dire straits, and they need war because the economic system is basically really imploding on them. Their economic growth is is at best, you know, half of The United States. But I use an indicator which is much more interesting than just jet debt to GDP.
Speaker 2:What percent of GDP is consumed by the bureaucrats? 35% in The United States. Europe is over 50. 50 about 52%. So it's and it it just keeps growing.
Speaker 2:Europe is is they're still into their woke agenda, The whole climate change thing really hurt them tremendously, and they haven't woken up to that. Britain's starting to. But, I mean, they're just out there in left field, and it's so I I think what you're going to see is we have a threat for the debt crisis coming from The Middle East. If Iran succeeds in doing this and cutting off the The Gulf States and they go into default, That then sets off a banking crisis. Okay?
Speaker 2:They can't pay the debts. The banks get in trouble. So it ripples through. Like, at at Domino's, push the first one over, and it will go down. Here's the real kicker.
Speaker 2:All you hear about is, Oh, US. US has got the biggest debt, blah blah blah. They have no idea. Yes, we got the biggest debt. Fine.
Speaker 2:But we have the biggest economy, and we can service that debt. And the other thing is that you have, as the geopolitics moves up, particularly after Dubai was getting hit, a lot of capital started moving to The US, And you started seeing the Dow making new highs. Alright? When you got tanks running down your street, you didn't leave your money in Europe for World War one or two. Alright?
Speaker 2:And we're we're seeing capital starting to shift to The US from Japan and Taiwan. So as these geopolitical issues go up, I've said many times, The US will be the last one standing.
Speaker 1:It's almost like US is the, it's kind of the last island that's gonna be that's gonna be floating. It has all the other or the last ship that still hasn't sunk yet, everyone's trying to clamor and climb on board. Now, you know, I know in previous interviews we've done, you'd mentioned that your model shows that getting into 2030, 2032, it was basically predicting collapse of most governments. Right? We're talking about a pretty systemic collapse of governments across the world, as you've outlined.
Speaker 1:And so you mentioned the dominoes. So do you see that these events that we're watching now are the smaller dominoes that will be getting us into that kind of a situation? Do you still foresee some sort of significant collapse like that coming at the turn of the next, you know, turn of the decade? Or how are you seeing this play out?
Speaker 2:Yeah. I mean, it's not you know, you're gonna be dying starving on the street corner, you know. These are major political revolutions that take place roughly about every three hundred years or so. Alright, we went through one before, where we overthrew monarchy, then we went to a republic, that was a mistake. And they bullshit us all the time and say we live in a democracy, but we do not.
Speaker 2:Alright? Nobody asks us, shall we go to war with Iran? Nobody asks that question. Shall we, know, here's a gun. Do you have any vote on that?
Speaker 2:None. Alright. Germany basically just passed a law that any man that is of military age cannot leave the country without government permission. You know, we're looking this is what a republic is. It's not democracy.
Speaker 2:Democracy is where we get to vote. Shall we go to war? Okay. Vietnam, 18 years old, you can be drafted. Here's a gun.
Speaker 2:Go kill somebody. You couldn't even have a drink. No less vote. Alright? That's democracy.
Speaker 2:That's dictatorship. Alright? So that's what I think these events are doing. You understand that. But we're talking about the masses out here.
Speaker 2:When they get to say, know, we're screwed. This doesn't work. I was never asked for this. I didn't agree to this. That's when you get the political change.
Speaker 2:Alright? And I that's what's coming by 2032. It is a process, alright, of convincing, basically, the public at large that this system doesn't work. And it's also creating a extremely polarized political system, not just in US. Europe is also very polarized.
Speaker 2:Canada, same thing. You know, I just went up to Canada to do two conferences there in Calgary and in Vancouver. I can tell you the West has had enough with the East. I mean, they're gonna separate. They just passed for a referendum that's gonna be in October.
Speaker 2:You know, I've advised some people, you know, I you know, as you know, from the I I think it was largely because my father had taken me and the family to Europe when I was just a young teenager. But that taught me currency. We had to change currency every time we crossed the border. Going to school in The United States, they never even mentioned currency. So, I think that family trip for the summer I spent there taught me about currency that I didn't get from school.
Speaker 2:And so I happened to have had a friend, a client, who was an executive VP at Franklin National Bank. And that was the first bank that went down after the fall of Bretton Woods, 1974. And he knew I understood currency. And he said to me, would you come take a look at this? I think it's got something to do with currency.
Speaker 2:The bank went down. It was the first of his I think the tenth largest bank in the country. You know, the bank has started Mastercard. And they went down around 10% move in the Italian lira. So after that, pretty much any currency prices, get the guy who did that one.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Because they didn't teach this stuff in school. So, I mean, I've explained in Canada how we set up a currency. I, you know, got called in for the euro creating that. The Asian currency crisis, I was called in by China itself.
Speaker 2:So it it any I've had a front row seat pretty much anywhere around the world. And I can tell you that you're you're looking at a lot of separation movements. Europe, they're starting to get pissed off realizing the EU is not the panacea that they thought. And you had Ursula. I know for a fact that basically they attacked they rigged Italian elections, then they went after Romania overthrew that.
Speaker 2:They threatened to overthrow the German election, if the AFD won. Alright? And they interfered in Hungary. And as soon as Ursula got rid of Orban, what did she do? She came out and basically said, no single country should be able to stop us.
Speaker 2:That was the promise made at the beginning. People were afraid that one country is gonna become a dictator. And they said, no. It will require a unanimous vote Because Orban didn't want to go to war with Russia, they removed him. Okay?
Speaker 2:And now she wants to change the rules. Europe is screwed. You know, as far as, you know, anything that they originally were promising people, it's all fiction. Oh, you all be paying the same interest rate. Didn't happen.
Speaker 2:It's you know, this is pretty much it. So you're you're looking at Italy just came out, was told told Ursula advocating to issue Eurobonds because they can't sell them. So you get these individual countries having difficulty trying to sell their debt. And as a trader, alright, I warned them back then. Unless you consolidate the debt, the euro will never compete with the dollar.
Speaker 2:Why? Because it's the same thing as if alright. Fine. We have a single currency, but we have 50 states. Doesn't mean they all pay the same interest rate.
Speaker 2:Alright? And you're gonna be you're gonna buy bonds from one state but not another because you don't trust them or whatever. If California got into trouble, the traders are gonna say, oh, who's next? Illinois. Alright.
Speaker 2:Short that one. Alright. This is what we saw with the Greece problem in 2010. Alright. Soon as Greece got into trouble, who's next?
Speaker 2:Oh, Spain. You know? So as a fund manager, the euro can't compete with the dollar. I still have to make the same decision. Do I want France?
Speaker 2:Do I want Germany? Do I want Italy? As if the currencies are still independent. Nothing changed. You're just calling it euro.
Speaker 2:Fine. But I'm still buying the debt or selling the debt. You can look in the screen at all the peripheral interest rates. They're not all the same. You know, people get questions about Italy, sell Italy by Germany.
Speaker 2:So much spreads are like that, you know, on. And that's what we're facing, and that is creating the tension for separation. So I don't see the EU lasting. That may even fail by '90, you know, but I would say it it could definitely go down, you know, even by '31 or '19 or 2030. It's and then you go into war because they need war to get the, you know, people to rally around the flag and then support the EU.
Speaker 2:So they need war to do this. Otherwise, I can tell you people are gonna be picking up their pitchforks and storming the parliaments and say because their pensions are all geared to this stuff. And when they default, there goes everybody's retirement.
Speaker 1:And so
Speaker 2:It's not gonna look good.
Speaker 1:For the people that see the writing on the wall, see the supply chain disruptions, the civil unrest, all this, what do you what advice do you give people? Right? Because it's I think that we're living in a time when, if we're looking if I'm looking ahead the next five or ten years, I it's hard to imagine a scenario of just peace and prosperity. It seems like it's gonna be the inverse. And so, what's your advice to the average person that is seeing all this and reading the tea leaves and is concerned?
Speaker 1:What would you recommend for them?
Speaker 2:The the core issue is you do not want public assets. Go private.
Speaker 1:So wait. Public assets meaning
Speaker 2:They're called corporate Stock bonds. Market.
Speaker 1:Oh, okay. Okay.
Speaker 2:Okay. Stock market is private. Okay. Government bond.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:Alright. You can buy corporate bonds, triple a, etcetera. I will say we have one of the biggest pension funds in North America, and they shifted their portfolio this way. And S and P went in initially and said, oh, you're taking on more risk. You're going corporate versus and they said, no.
Speaker 2:We they said that, you know, we use Armstrong economics, but we did our own due diligence. And he's right. Governments default. AAA corporates don't. And even if they did, they go to bankruptcy sale, and you get money back because all the assets are sold.
Speaker 2:A government defaults, you get nothing. It's unsecured. You know, you can't go down to the National Gallery and lift up Picasso. You know? But, you know, this is basically what you're looking at.
Speaker 2:I would stay away from, you know, government debt. Probably the federal is okay for right now, for maybe another couple of years. You're having a lot of foreign capital coming in. And, I mean, the stock market will, you know, pull back to retest support. But I know you have all these people, oh, the great crash, 1929, all over.
Speaker 2:First of all, when The United States back then had a balanced budget, so they sold the corporate debt and bought the government. Alright. So the dollar went up so high because of all the foreign capital was coming in. That's what created the protection movement. Okay?
Speaker 2:Smooth hallway and all that. I mean, so it's not the same thing here. The US government is not the the safe haven to run to. Eventually look. The computer does show that the stock market's final high is probably off in 2032.
Speaker 2:I mean, it will pull back, back and forth like this. But you really wanna sell all your private assets and buy government bonds? Answer that question. And then you go into war? No.
Speaker 2:No. It's you know, debt is the is the government debt is the worst thing to own during periods of war.
Speaker 1:Makes sense. That makes sense. Well, Martin, we just came up on an hour and which was much faster than anticipated. I'm gonna try to get this turned around so I can publish it tonight. So to do that, we'll have to wrap up.
Speaker 1:But I wanna bring up your website to show people. So it's armstrongeconomics.com. And on your site, where should people go to learn more? What do you recommend people what what do you recommend for people on your website?
Speaker 2:You can explore all the I mean, you don't have to put in any emails. We don't sell advertising. You can go through. We provide as much information. We're not blocked anywhere in the world.
Speaker 2:We try to keep it that way. And so it's not partisan or something along those lines. Or you go go in and search by, you know, country, you know, right months, what when did we write what? You can go in there and see that, you know, the computer even had forecast in '20 you know, in 2013, I had even written computer saying it's gonna start in Ukraine a year in advance. I mean, the computer's been phenomenal.
Speaker 2:Let me say, it's not my personal opinion. I don't think anybody can possibly be right all the time from a gut perspective. It's computer is the the first AI system, and it is tracking everything in the world.
Speaker 1:Here and this is where where it is. And so and if people wanna access that see, have lot of free information on there, a lot of your blogs and everything. But if people want to get more in-depth information, some of your, kind of financial analysis, is that also on here? How do they access that if they wanna create an account?
Speaker 2:Most of the forecast will be on the private blog, or you can go to Socrates. Every day, we do a market talk to give her an assessment of what's happened each day around the world. But, you know, I would go into you can search just about, you know, anything. You can go into Socrates. There's, you know, knowledge center.
Speaker 2:There's everything from interviews to research on on the world economy. I mean, we there's just there's so much in there. It's got decades worth of articles.
Speaker 1:Oh, there's a lot here. And you also you have an event coming up in Tampa, right, in July. Is this this is an in person Yes.
Speaker 2:We're doing this basically for the next generation I've been asked to do. So this is everything that they do not teach you in school. It's how the economy really works. We're going over pretty much everything that where it came from, how they've screwed this up. And and, it's it's something I'm supposed to you know, people have been asking me to do for the next generation for a long time.
Speaker 2:So I want to do it before Scotty beams me up, you know?
Speaker 1:There you go. There you go. Well, Martin, thank you again for giving me your time, and the audience is well. I know that you're very busy and you're, on very on demand. So I appreciate you setting aside for this time for us.
Speaker 1:And I'm sure, you know, in a couple of months, we'll do this again, and the whole world will be upside down even more so. We'll have a lot to talk about.
Speaker 2:Probably. Doesn't seem to get any better, but
Speaker 1:Exactly.
Speaker 2:That's what I tell people, cheer up, this may be the best day of your life yet.
Speaker 1:That's true. That's true. Well, Martin, thank you so much. I apologize to try to cut it short, I wanna make sure we get this published tonight. So thank you again for your Thank
Speaker 2:you.
Speaker 1:Take care.
Speaker 2:Bye.