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TBPN is a live tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, streaming weekdays from 11–2 PT on X and YouTube, with full episodes posted to Spotify immediately after airing.
Described by The New York Times as “Silicon Valley’s newest obsession,” TBPN has interviewed Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, and Satya Nadella. Diet TBPN delivers the best moments from each episode in under 30 minutes.
It's a massive day today. SpaceX IPO priced at a $135 a share, opened at $1.50. Where is it right now? Jordy, are you on it? Do you have the price?
Speaker 1:Oh, the price is up there. Okay. Now we're
Speaker 2:getting the endless mirror.
Speaker 1:You can pause the price. But Here we go. We'll be tracking throughout the show. So stay tuned. It's $2,280,000,000,000 company.
Speaker 3:$1.72.
Speaker 1:$172 a share. I had Tyler and Jordy, submit, confidential estimates for where the stock would be at noon effectively. Jordy went with a market cap based estimate. Tyler went with a share price estimate, I think.
Speaker 3:What I was told?
Speaker 1:I went with a percentage based estimate. You can translate between all of them. We'll get there. But, the stock's doing well. The IPO is successful, I would say.
Speaker 1:There's been a bunch of chatter back and forth, bull cases, bear cases. But overall, it's hard not to look at this as a success. The you know, Bill Gurley doesn't want a crazy pop on day one, doesn't want it to go up a 100%. If we're in ten, twenty, 30% range for something this big, that just feels like everything came together properly. And so so far, looks really, really good.
Speaker 1:So at noon, we will check-in with our predictions and see who won. There is an exciting prize for the winner, by the way. It will be revealed at noon as well. We can pull up this video from Gwen Shotwell, who is the president of SpaceX and has been on an absolute tear building the company for basically its entire existence. What?
Speaker 1:What are you laughing at?
Speaker 2:I didn't know what your prediction was.
Speaker 1:Did you see what it is?
Speaker 2:Yeah. Nick just shared
Speaker 1:Oh, he did. Oh, what?
Speaker 2:This this guy over here. This is a funny guy over here. It'd be revealed. Funny guy over here. See?
Speaker 2:This is why you trade
Speaker 1:I was trying to
Speaker 2:pull This is why you trade bits, not stocks.
Speaker 1:I was trying to pull an estimate out of you, and you were, like, asking me 25 clarifying questions. Was like, the purpose is content, to have a conversation. Just pick a number. And you're like, oh, well, does it count where it opens or what where it opens after?
Speaker 2:Like, just saw your I was just like,
Speaker 1:just brought a number. We gotta have a discussion about this.
Speaker 2:Nothing accurate in stage. Sure. Everything's on the line, John. Everything is on was laughing about how
Speaker 1:you wouldn't take a side on the on the dog walker versus the dentist. I I was like, dog walker, dentist, blind. Who are going? And you were like, I I can't possibly. I couldn't possibly, in the name of good television, just pick a random side for the
Speaker 2:or dentist? Yeah. Beach debate.
Speaker 1:The beach debate. We never we never got your answer. And you're like, I need more information. I can't possibly make a call.
Speaker 2:This is it's such a tough one because I don't It's
Speaker 1:that tough. Why is it tough?
Speaker 2:Here's why it's tough for me, John.
Speaker 1:Okay. It's fine.
Speaker 2:I have never in my life Mhmm. Hired or worked with a dog walker. Yeah. My family growing up Yeah. We had a couple dogs.
Speaker 2:Yeah. We walked our dog. Yeah. Like, we never
Speaker 1:You've been to the dentist?
Speaker 2:I was the dog walker.
Speaker 1:Yeah. You've been to you're not your own dentist though.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:So why are you just going dentist?
Speaker 2:I've never had a cavity. Every time I go in there I I'm I guess I'm blessed.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:Every time I go in there, they're like, looks good, boss. Okay. And and I just head out.
Speaker 1:So equally useless.
Speaker 2:Equally useless profession.
Speaker 1:So flip the coin, it's TV. Useless profession.
Speaker 2:No. I just don't have any network connection.
Speaker 1:Need I need Why don't you fall back to, like, the economic power of the dentist industry versus the dog walking industry? Like, if you had to
Speaker 2:pick No. A respect job dog walking.
Speaker 1:If you were trying to get a bag I respect dog I walker. Oh, you would be an elite dog walker over a mid dentist?
Speaker 2:Here's here's two here's like here's kind of my thinking. Yeah. Yeah. There's a guy in my neighborhood
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Who is walking dogs in my neighborhood all day long. Yeah. I'm like, who? Like, a lot of people in my neighborhood don't work. They're just home all day.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Like, why aren't you walking your dog? Okay. But I think it's amazing that this guy is just like
Speaker 1:He's printing.
Speaker 2:Clearly printing Yeah. All day long just going for walks Yeah. Hanging out. He's listening to music, hanging out.
Speaker 1:Seems great.
Speaker 2:Super nice guy. He picks up the the
Speaker 1:Sounds like you're going dog walking.
Speaker 2:Except the poop when he when they poop on my lawn. Yeah.
Speaker 1:It's great.
Speaker 2:I appreciate it. We have a, you know
Speaker 1:Good relationship.
Speaker 2:I maybe wish you wouldn't do that, but
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:We have a fine relationship. But then dentists, I could get really excited about a dentist if they were
Speaker 1:You're still torn. You're still you're still not picking this up.
Speaker 2:Private equity backed roll up.
Speaker 1:Okay. Okay. Well, that's an option.
Speaker 2:Dentist was kind of a figurehead for for some PE firm Yeah. To be able to deploy huge amounts of capital into rolling up family practices Yes. Raising prices.
Speaker 1:What if what if you're a dog walker, you you earn so much money, you start being able to buy small dentist shops rolling them up. You flip from dog walking into dentistry.
Speaker 2:Well, that would be the way. I don't We don't know much about this story. Yeah. But we do know there's a conflict. Yeah.
Speaker 2:But that would be the way for the dog walker to Yeah. Strike back Yeah. Is buy the dentist
Speaker 1:So final final answer.
Speaker 2:Come in.
Speaker 1:What what side are you picking?
Speaker 2:If the dog walker will commit to
Speaker 1:No no conditionals.
Speaker 2:You just can't Why can't have Why can't I have conditions?
Speaker 1:You can't have conditions because that's the rules that I'm laying down. You gotta pick one. Dog walker or dentist. Whose side are you on? Dog walker.
Speaker 1:There we go. Finally, we got
Speaker 2:I'm going butt. I'm gonna put but I'm going I'm gonna put heavy
Speaker 1:The whole
Speaker 2:point is that is that serious
Speaker 1:amount stakes. I'll just take dentists side and I gotta defend that and steel man that. I'm gonna
Speaker 2:put a serious amount of pressure on the dog walker Okay. And I will provide financial backing to acquire the dentist practice Okay. And shut it down. Okay. Okay.
Speaker 2:Because because I know they have I know they have some conflict.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2:And it sounds like it's over the beach. It's really not that personal
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. And access to the beach. Yeah. Yeah. But I think there's an opportunity to make it personal.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:And I think I think at this point, if they're getting written up in the journal about this conflict Yeah. I think they should make it per so they gotta figure out how to it I think buying the dentist practice and then shutting it down or
Speaker 1:That's a high high No.
Speaker 2:No. You can raise you can raise an SPV and put the capital together. And I I would be willing to you know, I need to meet the guy first, but I'm at least moderately interested in providing at least some of the backing Okay.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:For the
Speaker 1:I gotcha. Well, let me tell you about CrowdStrike. Your business is AI. Their business is securing it. CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches.
Speaker 1:Let's play this clip from Gwen Shotwell standing at the Nasdaq on the day of the space.
Speaker 2:On the
Speaker 1:big board? I think we might be able to play it on the big board. Stock is doing well, holding steady at 2.27
Speaker 2:trillions. Split screen. Whatever the
Speaker 1:auction team wants to do, we will we will do as long as the folks at home can see Gwen Shotwell giving her speech to
Speaker 2:I gotta say Tyler is looking like a young, cannibal muskrat.
Speaker 4:Excited to be here.
Speaker 1:This channel
Speaker 4:Today, we make history again. We have a history of making history. So I want everyone to know that we did open this morning in a rather exciting way.
Speaker 1:We launched.
Speaker 4:Falcon nine launched Starlink satellites to orbit.
Speaker 2:We have a history. A nation history.
Speaker 4:So what company would do such a thing on the day that they open in the public market? SpaceX would. Right? I am so proud of this team. Today, we're 24 we're not today.
Speaker 4:This year, we are 24 years old. Elon founded this company in 2002 initially to build rockets and spaceships that will take humans to Mars, the moon, and even beyond. We've done we've not quite gotten to Mars. We're almost at the moon. But let's just quickly run through the amazing things that you guys have accomplished.
Speaker 4:February after a failure of flight three Falcon one, we got the first liquid fueled rocket to orbit from a private company. Yay. Yay. By the way, I should have prefaced this with everyone said we could never get to orbit. Check.
Speaker 4:But it was a little rocket. Then it's everyone said, well, you can't get a real rocket to orbit. Two years later, we got a real rocket to orbit, Falcon nine. Oh, well, you'll never you'll never get to the space station because that's what we really wanna do. Right?
Speaker 4:We wanna take humans outside the bounds of Earth, but you'll never get astronauts to the space station. Check. We did that too. Doubters. Right?
Speaker 4:Oh, you'll never fly Falcon nine enough. You'll never get to production. Another 65 launches last year. Check. You'll never build a rocket large enough to take humans to the moon and Mars.
Speaker 4:We build one, we've flown it, and this year, I believe we'll get to orbit with that vehicle, and we'll recover the first the second stage. We've already recovered the first stage and reflown it. With the merger, the acquisition of x AI, we now, as a group, own the largest coherent gigawatt class compute on the planet, which will help us truth seek and understand the universe. So congratulations to all of us for that. So we're about 22,000 strong.
Speaker 4:I'm super proud that over half of us actually bought additional stock in this opening totaling almost a billion dollars. We bought stock. Thank you for that too. But really the thank yous go to all of you for hanging in there, for keeping a straight spine as the doubters doubt, to achieve historic things sometimes every day, multiple times a week. Thank you all of you for doing this.
Speaker 4:And I hope today is a day that you feel great about and that you're celebrating. Take a moment. Now the Falcon recovery team can't take a moment today, but everybody else can, and I hope Falcon recovery team could take a moment a little bit later. Yep.
Speaker 2:In all seriousness And congratulations to the SpaceX team. It is, like, truly one of the most remarkable stories in the history of capitalism, in the history of America. Started in a little town called El Segundo. And Glenn Shotwell, one of the most impressive executives
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Of the modern era. And we all should have known just due to the nominative determinism. Yeah. If you're gonna build a rocket company, hire somebody to run the company with the last name Shotwell because she has shot Yeah. Quite well.
Speaker 1:She worked at Chrysler and then began working people like
Speaker 2:to say, like, oh, nontraditional background. Somewhat. Chrysler? Yeah. I mean Not exactly like a Target.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Well, she worked at the Aerospace Corporation, did technical work on military space research and development contracts. She said, when I was considering joining SpaceX back in 2002, was struggling with the decision and drawing it out for weeks. It's crazy. Leaving Elon on red for weeks seems extremely risky.
Speaker 1:It feels like every decision he makes now is like, go, no, go today. Get back to me right now. Back then, obviously, SpaceX was very young, less leverage, less less energy, less momentum. So these decisions would be drawn out. She said it seemed so risky for me personally to join this little startup in an industry where none had ever succeeded.
Speaker 1:I think she was starting a family around that time, and so it was risky from a career perspective. She said, at the time, I was a part time single mother, yeah, and this was just too far out of my comfort zone. She was used to bigger corporations, more established companies. She's going to this small startup that has at that time, it's like a guy who made money on the Internet now wants to do rocketry. What's the chance that that works?
Speaker 1:It sounds crazy. And it was at the time. She says, I was driving on the freeway here in LA when it finally hit me. I was being a total idiot. Who cares if I tried this job and either I failed or the company failed?
Speaker 1:What I recognized at that moment was that it was the trying part that was the most important. Try that risky thing. Be a part of something exciting. What a what a fantastic run. She I I I'm not sure if she coined the term residual capability, but that's a big phrase that she started using around the time Starlink started working.
Speaker 1:Just this idea that they would go and build ahead of demand almost. So SpaceX built basically more launch capacity than there was demand for. But then because there was space on every SpaceX rocket and they were able to build them so so efficiently, so affordably, they were able to put up a massive constellation of Internet connected satellites, Starlinks, and develop another huge business on top of it. And so this idea of of building, building, building, and then finding the different opportunities. For a while, SpaceX point to point was the big the big residual capability unlock that was coming in a few years.
Speaker 1:The idea that you get on a spaceship, a starship in New York and you'd be in Tokyo in thirty minutes because you would have gone all the way to space and back and it would land. I think that's still part of the plan, but obviously took a backseat in the S1, took a backseat in the marketing materials for the company. But something that is still possible if you wind up delivering incredible safety and performance and cost reductions to the rocket launches, why not hop on a rocket to get across the world in thirty minutes? Sounds pretty cool and probably oddly easier to approve than hypersonic planes since those have been stuck in regulatory approvals for for, you know, years and decades and never really worked out.
Speaker 3:I mean, Elon's hitting one t and she's just hitting one b.
Speaker 2:Well, yeah.
Speaker 1:Shotwell was paid 86,000,000 last year, mostly in the form of stock options. She's one of eight board members at SpaceX. She's 62 and has worked with Musk for two decades. She has a specific ritual for launch days. Because she was in Scotland the first time the company successfully got a rocket into orbit, she now writes Scotland on two sticky notes and places each inside her shoes to be in Scotland for every launch.
Speaker 1:She said in a 2020
Speaker 2:Scotland mindset.
Speaker 1:That's pretty elite. I like is what what what's that called? Where you're superstitious. Superstitions. Rare?
Speaker 1:Potentially underrated? What do you think? Do you have any superstitions?
Speaker 2:I mean, it's in the words super. Yeah. Superpower.
Speaker 1:What's your take on superstition? Do you have any? Doesn't sound like.
Speaker 2:I think it's I think it's quite distracting. Distracting? Yeah. Kind of like could it could end up being a pretty big waste of time, so I avoid them.
Speaker 1:So you feel like unless you go through your whole ritual of eliminating all distractions, things aren't gonna go well? So you're superstitious about letting distractions creep into
Speaker 2:your workflow. I understand Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe I Maybe
Speaker 1:I am. Yeah. She's been a staunch defender of mocks Musk. She worked to prevent business fallout during all the political turmoil. She worked with NASA officials and assured them that tensions would pass.
Speaker 1:She doesn't love social media social media. I like his in person self better than his Twitter self. In fact, they feel like two different people many of the times. She has a much different social media presence than her boss posting sparingly, exclusively about SpaceX. She's focused.
Speaker 1:She was raised outside of Chicago.
Speaker 2:Wait. You could imagine like she's reading x. She's, like, crying emojis, quoting six more posts, crying emojis. He's never crying Yeah. At the office.
Speaker 2:Yeah. He never does that. He's, like, This feels like I feel like I don't know this guy. He's always crying.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Well, when she first joined SpaceX, she was VP of business development, so not in the in, like, a co founder, chief executive type role on day one. And so that probably explains a little bit of the equity position and how that developed over time. But she was promoted to SpaceX's president and chief operating officer in 2008, the same year the company won a critical $1,600,000,000 NASA cargo transport deal.
Speaker 3:So I looked up she was SpaceX's seventh employee.
Speaker 1:Wow. That's pretty early. She'd be disappointed if SpaceX didn't have a settlement on the moon and wasn't building a manufacturing facility on the moon within ten years. She showed time. She lives on a 1,000 acre ranch close to a SpaceX facility in Texas.
Speaker 1:She married a fellow SpaceX engineer and has two children. She put a Starlink mini terminal on top of her car to speak with Musk on her forty minute commute without the call dropping. Interesting. Jimmy Soni also went back in time and told a story in The Wall Street Journal about the one of the early days in in the SpaceX journey. Vindication for young Elon Musk, he wrote.
Speaker 1:In 2004, he told the Senate that open competition would transform the industry. So this was an interesting story. And I and I wonder if we could find the actual video, like, on C SPAN. I don't know if it's out there. But in 2004, the Senate held a subcommittee meeting, gather on all the subcommittee gathers on Capitol Hill to ask a question that now sounds quaint.
Speaker 1:Could America still reach space without the space shuttle? Of course, we do it, like, every couple days, thanks to SpaceX. The shuttle was grounded, 14 astronauts had died in two disasters, and the hearing room was thick with anxiety of a nation that feared it had lost a step. Senator Bill Nelson, had flown on the shuttle, sort of the Jared Isaacman of his era, warned that without it, the country might spend years relying on Russian rockets. Nobody disagreed.
Speaker 1:Witnesses came in two panels. First, you got the NASA team defending the program through William Reddy, its associate administration for, administrator for spaceflight accompanied by a retired admiral. After NASA smoke spoke, industry did. They got a vice president from ATK, another from Lockheed Martin, a director from the aerospace group. Are you looking for a for a new a candle, a nuke one way or another?
Speaker 2:This is brutal for my prediction.
Speaker 1:This is brutal
Speaker 3:for I'm feeling I'm feeling pretty But
Speaker 1:it's also brutal for anyone that wants drama on the chart because you're not getting it today. It's very stable. I think this is a very well managed project from start to finish.
Speaker 2:And then now it's just like a trillion dollar company, so it's hard for it to move super
Speaker 1:I don't know. I I I I just think that I'm just saying If you were expecting 10% swings up and
Speaker 3:down Like, just think that they're gonna be pretty small, though. Right? Like, at least that they're being traded.
Speaker 2:Sure. Sure.
Speaker 1:Very, very small. The last person on the industry panel. You got Lockheed, ATK, Aerospace Corp. It's Elon Musk.
Speaker 2:AP in the chat. Wait for dip.
Speaker 1:Wait for dollars. $5. Can you imagine? It just nukes down to $5. So on the second panel, the industry panel, you got heavy hitters from Lockheed, other industry folks.
Speaker 1:You got a thirty two two year old man who had founded a rocket company two years earlier, and he'd yet to launch anything. It was Elon Musk. He had a more immediate complaint. NASA had just awarded a rival a quarter of $1,000,000,000 contract without open competition. And his company had protested.
Speaker 1:So everyone's there to debate like, okay, can NASA get to space without the shuttle? And he's there being like, what about my contract? He shows up to this thing to testify and they keep having to try and keep him on track. It's a very interesting Wow. Way to like get his word in edgewise.
Speaker 1:So the senators thought the matter was off limits. Like, this hearing isn't about that, Elon. It's not about your contract. It was under government review already, and they kept having to steer him back to the day's subject, specifically heavy lift, the blunt problem of getting big things off the planet. Certainly, he said, although it's worth correcting.
Speaker 1:I think mister Reddy misspoke when he said it was competitive. It was, in fact, not competitive. The chairman tried again. Let's stay to heavy lift capacity issues, Elon. Stay on message.
Speaker 1:And Elon says, absolutely. But his his correction was safely on the record. He said something the panel wasn't ready to hear. The past few decades, Elon Musk told them, had been a dark age for human spaceflight. One costly government program after another failed to reach the pad.
Speaker 1:The public's drift from space, he argued, wasn't the apathy of a tired people, but the disappointment of a hopeful one. It sounded in 2004 like a man with a grievance and a half built rocket. He was dismissed. He had made the same case the summer before in one of his first Capitol Hill appearances. At a 2003 hearing on commercial spaceflight, there's a borrowed concept from the economist Joseph Schumpter, a creative destruction.
Speaker 1:The industry had lost it, not one successful new entrant in four decades. Space, mister Musk Musk pointed out, had barely improved since Apollo, while every other technology from computing and the Internet to intercontinental flight had been transformed by newcomers and open competition. Restore that forcing function, he said, and space would change no less dramatically. The government need only be a customer, not a competitor. He could be glib.
Speaker 1:Every launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base, he said, was required by law to be studied for its effect on the local seals at $10,000 a flight even as that population had been climbing by nearly 13% in a single year. He says the seals are doing fine. Let me launch. With that population growth rate mister mister Musk observed, it seems clear that if anything, the Vandenberg launch activity serves as an aphrodisiac. Dropping lines, dropping zingers on Capitol Hill.
Speaker 1:People laughed. It was the laughter you gave a clever outsider. But we can grade that clever outsider's argument now because more than twenty years have passed and the record is in. The fear that haunted that 2004 hearing dependence on Moscow was not ended by the shuttle but by mister Musk's company. In 2002, a SpaceX capsule carried two astronauts to the space station from American soil
Speaker 2:2000 and
Speaker 1:closing a nine year gap in which The United States paid Russia as much as $90,000,000 a seat to hitch a ride. The semi reusable rocket mister Musk described to skeptical senators became a fleet of boosters that land themselves and fly again. Today, SpaceX launches more than half the world's payloads. On Friday, it goes public in what is expected to be the largest IPO in history.
Speaker 2:You know what's not ordinary? Investment Yeah. Of $20,000,000 at a $200,000,000 valuation into Yeah. SpaceX Yeah. Did get diluted
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:But it is still 50 I think like the best venture investment of all time. Wait. No. I thought it was more like it's 50? I thought it was more like 80?
Speaker 1:I think it's closer to 8000000000000¢. I think I think they made 8000000000000¢.
Speaker 2:Got it.
Speaker 1:8,000,000,000,000 pennies. PT needed a win.
Speaker 2:What was the return in basis points?
Speaker 1:He needed a win. He needed a win because apparently What
Speaker 2:was the return in basis points?
Speaker 1:We could have with him on chess.com. Have you seen this?
Speaker 2:Oh, yeah. Do we need to play this?
Speaker 1:We need to play the video of a gentleman on Instagram who found Peter Thiel's chess.com account, played him, and won
Speaker 2:Do you have the video pulled up?
Speaker 1:Lap. It's in the timeline deeper down there. As he found Peter Thiel's chess account, played him. I mean, we already spoiled it.
Speaker 5:On chess.com. I don't know if anybody knows about this, but Peter Thiel has a chess.com account with his real name under which he's played over 50,000
Speaker 2:And Peter Thiel over
Speaker 1:the past
Speaker 3:2,000 games.
Speaker 5:And the reason I know it's him is first of all his friends Silicon Valley and ex Stanford Founders.
Speaker 2:And I put this account
Speaker 5:into a database called Opening Tree, which allows me to cross reference his most played moves with his public tournament games that he played in the nineties, and it's all the same stuff. So, our game went e four, e five, knight f three, knight f six. I played the Stafford Gambit. And on move six,
Speaker 1:he What fell for the have you doing?
Speaker 3:Well, no. He didn't fall for the Gambit, but And I think played classic one here.
Speaker 5:Okay. And the point is that when he takes back, played bishop takes f two, winning his queen by
Speaker 3:see.
Speaker 5:So most players would just give up. They would just resign in this position. But Peter Thiel
Speaker 2:Does Never give up. Played on.
Speaker 5:And a few moves later, he made another very elementary mistake. Played bishop takes a seven. This is the kind of move that you see beginners make. Very rarely does anybody over 2,000 not see that you can just play b six afterwards, which traps the bishop, and I'm just gonna scoop it up in a few moves. Even here, he didn't resign.
Speaker 5:He kept playing on I checkmated him after. I find this really funny because Peter Thiel has a reputation of being a sort of chess genius. So I wanted to take this opportunity to show the real Peter Thiel who falls for basic opening traps.
Speaker 1:I don't know any of those moves.
Speaker 5:He uses to resign.
Speaker 1:Elon. Ordinary guy. Proof that they're all ordinary guys.
Speaker 2:Elon never gives up. Right? Famous picture of him standing there. Everything's in shambles. Also makes elementary mistakes sometimes.
Speaker 2:Picking it, you know, accusing the president of things, you know, on, you know, social media. Right? Kind of an elementary mistake Yeah. You know, if you're a government contractor. Lawsuits?
Speaker 2:That's right. That's right. Every mistake. And so, again, I think PT never gives up, makes some elementary mistakes.
Speaker 1:There's a lesson there.
Speaker 2:Lesson in there.
Speaker 1:Lesson in there. For sure. Let's pull up this post from Andy showing a visual guide to the SpaceX IPO while I tell you about Codex. Codex is a powerful workspace for getting work done with AI agents. Whether you're writing code, analyzing data, creating content, or automating business workflows, Codex helps you move projects forward from start to finish.
Speaker 1:So what is this saying? What's gonna happen here?
Speaker 2:This is technical analysis.
Speaker 1:Okay. This is technical analysis. And he's saying that it's gonna pop on IPO day, sell off for three straight years
Speaker 2:Woah.
Speaker 1:And then go to the moon. Is that this? Is that and and every he's basically saying that everyone's gonna be taking victory laps if the stock trades down Yeah. In twenty twenty six, twenty twenty seven, 2028. But then, ultimately, they will all be upset.
Speaker 1:I mean, there there were some crazy articles out there that are like the rise and fall of Elon Musk a year ago. Like Yeah. He can't possibly come back from the reputational damage he's done to himself from
Speaker 2:the Yeah. One's buying the cars.
Speaker 1:Buying the cars, and it's like, well, they're buying the stocks. So, you know, it's gonna be okay, I guess. Founders fund investment at 200,000,000 might be the best venture investment in history. A lot of that is just the holding to fruition, like, because the early investors in Google or Microsoft or Amazon, like, lot of them distributed at IPO at like a 5,000,000,000 value founders.
Speaker 3:Right? Bill Gates.
Speaker 1:Oh, yeah. He sold too early. Right? Paper hands
Speaker 2:No. The only thing is I do think Masa hasn't beat I I think Masa hasn't beat with Alibaba. Oh. Because it was like 20,000,000 into 70,000,000,000. Sure.
Speaker 2:On a shorter time horizon.
Speaker 1:Oh, must get mocked. Mogged. Anyway, heard in the chats, I put $1,000,000 SpaceX order through a private bank and just got filled only 50 k, one twentieth of what this individual asked for. Most people I spoke to have gotten even less. We had some folks on the team put in orders for 20 shares, 50 shares, 100 shares, and only get a small fraction of that.
Speaker 1:How much did you get, Tyler?
Speaker 3:I got 22.
Speaker 1:22 shares? But you requested more?
Speaker 3:Yes. And then, yeah, I mean, we've had a lot of people they say they only got one share. Brutal. The one share wonder. That's almost worse than zero shares, because you can see it in your portfolio.
Speaker 1:Yeah. What if they could give you short interest? They're like, you asked for five shares, but we give you negative one share. We give you we give you the inverse ETF, actually. You're it's over for you.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I was I was surprised by this. Yeah. Given the given the offers that were given the offers that were flying around, I got offered, like, a $50,000,000 allocation. Obviously, not wasn't gonna take that down myself, but I just
Speaker 1:Wow. Just say you risk off.
Speaker 2:No. I But I but I responded to the guy and I was like, I don't even know. I'm not even gonna text anyone because like it feels like this is there's like so much allocation available for everyone Yeah. That it's kind of it's just not even worth Yeah. Firing off text.
Speaker 2:Yeah. But turns out there there was there was It's a lot more demand than
Speaker 1:it's making its way through through the world, through the through the iMessage DMs. Buddy needs to relax, says RJC. SpaceX IPO this week. Thoughts on SpaceX? SpaceX IPO.
Speaker 1:What are we thinking, boss? Who is this? Kyle. I was your Uber driver three months Wait.
Speaker 2:Nick a funny
Speaker 1:This this
Speaker 2:can't be real got a funny Uber
Speaker 1:drivers don't get your phone number anymore. It all happens in the app. This is ridiculous.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Conversation, exchange numbers.
Speaker 1:Yeah. And also these just like like the rendering of the text, it doesn't look iMessage enough to me. I don't believe it but it's Nick
Speaker 2:did get a funny text this morning
Speaker 1:What did you say?
Speaker 2:From somebody who is certainly not
Speaker 1:A professional
Speaker 2:Not a professional investor saying Okay. Texting him advice being like, you wanna get in, but then you wanna get out. Oh. You wanna get in and get out. Okay.
Speaker 2:Get in, get out. And then get out, get out, get in, but then get out by the end of the day. They're sitting there with this one chair.
Speaker 1:Anyway, let me tell you about Codex and the Road to Olympia expansion pack, which is sponsoring this episode. It takes your training split and refactors it into production grade hypertrophy code. No more junk volume. No more spaghetti programming. No more deprecated rear delt functions.
Speaker 1:Just clean, scalable mass architecture with automated progressive overload, test coverage for calves, and one critical warning build failed insufficient carbs. The Codex Road to Olympia expansion pack is available now. That's a good one.
Speaker 2:That's a good one. Well, John, it's noon. Yeah. I think it's time.
Speaker 1:Okay. Okay. Let's reveal our predictions. What was the price per share when
Speaker 3:it IPO? $1.35.
Speaker 1:$1.35. Okay. So I said 0%. I said $1.35. I said No fish.
Speaker 1:The bankers this is the funniest outcome is that the bankers got it perfectly correct. The market is perfectly efficient. No pop, no sell off, completely flat line on the chart. That's it.
Speaker 5:It's a
Speaker 2:very Kukan bit, but, like, you don't want that. No. No. You want a 20% pop. Want a little bit of a pop.
Speaker 2:And I would say they've done that, like, they've gotten it very, very, very close. Right? Currently sitting at a 24% pop.
Speaker 1:What did you say? What was your percentage
Speaker 2:I in percentages? Was I had 0%. Two
Speaker 1:It's at 24%.
Speaker 2:I was too bullish. You were too bullish. I was expecting somewhere around $2,183 a share by two minutes $3. We're currently at 167.
Speaker 1:Okay. So
Speaker 2:what percentage is that? I I thought it would open I thought it was gonna open above I one thought it was gonna open above 170 and then run more.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:Turns out it opened in the sixties, dropped down to around 158 and then built back up from there.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:I was off.
Speaker 1:So I had so I had 0%, you had 33%. It's at 24%
Speaker 3:was over just right. I went thirty one percent
Speaker 1:Thirty one which
Speaker 3:would be a 176.
Speaker 1:176.
Speaker 3:So I'm a little high. A little high.
Speaker 1:So you got the
Speaker 3:But I win.
Speaker 1:You win. You win. And and does everyone wanna know what Tyler wins, what the what the prize was today? Prize is that whoever wins gets to do one extra ramp ad read. It's such a treat,
Speaker 2:and I get No way. Yeah. That is special.
Speaker 1:And I get to I hoard them every day. So here you go, Tyler.
Speaker 2:I got it.
Speaker 1:Feel free to read the Ramp app for the audience.
Speaker 3:Ramp. Time is money. Save both. Easy to use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a whole
Speaker 2:lot more.
Speaker 1:All in one place. There we go. That was great. I hope you enjoyed that, Tyler. Don't get too comfortable with that.
Speaker 2:Get back to Tyler. There we go. Will Monidas says, it brings me no joy to report I spent a year wondering why I was constantly sleepy and had a low sleep score on my whoop that was totally cured by simply stop wearing the whoop.
Speaker 1:By simply stop wearing Stopping wearing the whoop.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But And X is turning this into a whole news story, ditching whoop tracker cured sleep worries.
Speaker 1:Financiers? He says, financiers. That's hilarious. You wanna track your sleep? Like, are you sleepy?
Speaker 1:Like, think about it. Yeah. Yeah. Come up with an answer.
Speaker 2:That's your sleep like I never actually care about the score. No. The score takes care of itself.
Speaker 1:Yeah. But with Eight Sleep, I like cooling. Like, that's nice.
Speaker 2:Well, and with Eight Sleep, I'm actually interested in like how is my REM versus deep trending.
Speaker 1:Sure. Sure. Sure.
Speaker 2:Things like that. Yeah. Resting heart rate, all all these other things. I never am like, oh, what's my score today?
Speaker 1:Oh, the score. Unless we were competing. Because then that was fun.
Speaker 3:It seems like one of those like Goodhart's laws
Speaker 1:Yes.
Speaker 3:Things. Yes. Right? Or if you like, oh, I need to get a better sleep score, then Yeah. It's it doesn't like work as well.
Speaker 1:There's a new challenge that hit the timeline. Apple threw down the gauntlet. They said they said that no one could make Siri their girlfriend. Said Siri won't be your AI girlfriend. This is from Apple's Craig Federighi.
Speaker 1:Well
Speaker 3:I'd like to see you try to stop me.
Speaker 1:So Craig Federighi says Apple won't be your AI girlfriend. Quite the opposite because as you may know, many of the existing chatbots are really focused on engagement and sycophancy. They wanna kinda pull you in. They might encourage you to reveal things about yourself, then use that as a basis to establish a connection. We view it quite the opposite.
Speaker 1:I mean, the
Speaker 2:Very kind of fitting, like kind of a very 2025 take Yeah. Which is kind of fitting given their AI progress.
Speaker 1:But if you try and engage Siri as a romantic partner, Siri's not up for that. Siri's 100% not into that. And so the Rizzlers in the
Speaker 3:chat He's opening himself up to get dunked on. Right? You can people have jailbroken every single model
Speaker 1:broke it. But also, one of the cool things about the Siri AI system is that it will in it it it builds a
Speaker 2:rag It says system prompt. Don't be the user's girlfriend. He's like, yeah. We've we cracked the code. It's like problem that has been plaguing the AI industry.
Speaker 1:Have a great weekend. Congratulations to anyone that got in on the SpaceX IPO. Leave us five stars on Apple Podcast. Sign up for our newsletter at t b p n dot com, and we will see you on Monday. Have a great weekend.
Speaker 2:We love you.
Speaker 1:Goodbye.
Speaker 2:Going flashbang.
Speaker 1:Flashbang out.