Barenaked Money

The Dividend Debate: Unpacking the Myths and Realities of Dividend Investing
 
In this episode of Barenaked Money, hosts Josh Sheluk and Colin White from Verecan Capital Management dissect the popular belief that dividend investing is a foolproof strategy. They discuss the underlying appeal of dividends and the potential misconceptions about dividend safety and provide insights into the historical performance of dividend-focused investments versus broad market indices. They also explore how the financial industry markets dividend products, the risks associated with over-concentrated dividend portfolios, and the importance of total return and diversification in investment strategy. The episode aims to demystify the complexity of dividend investing and emphasize the necessity of a well-rounded approach to portfolio management.
 
00:00 Introduction to Barenaked Money
00:17 The Case Against Dividend Investing
01:11 Why Dividends Are Popular
03:27 Debunking the Risk Reduction Myth
04:32 Interest Rate Sensitivity of Dividend Stocks
06:57 The Evolution of Dividend Policies
11:09 Dividend Strategies vs. Total Return
21:29 The Pitfalls of Dividend-Focused Products
29:45 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

 

 

What is Barenaked Money?

Slip into something more comfortable and delve into personal finance with Josh Sheluk and Colin White, experienced portfolio managers at Verecan Capital Management. Each episode demystifies complex financial topics, stripping them to their bare essentials. From investment strategies and financial planning to economic headlines and philanthropic giving, delivered with a blend of insight, transparency, and a touch of humour. Perfect for anyone looking to understand and navigate their financial future with confidence. Subscribe now to stay informed, empowered, and entertained.

Verecan Capital Management Inc. is registered as a Portfolio Manager in all provinces in Canada except Manitoba.

Announcer:

Welcome to Barenaked Money, the podcast where we strip down the complex world of finance to its bare essentials with your hosts, Josh Sheluk and Colin White, portfolio managers with Verecan Capital Management Inc.

Colin White:

Welcome to the next episode of Barenaked Money. The OG Colin Josh coming at you. And this part, we're gonna talk about how dividend investing is for losers. Right, Josh?

Josh Sheluk:

Pretty much. I think that's it.

Colin White:

So we're we're gonna do a little bit of a dive. I I could give some backstory. I mean, Josh probably doesn't even know this. What what tweaks me in wanting to have this conversation was, one of our team had a conversation with an adviser in another firm who when they found out that we did not offer a dividend sleeve or dividend specific investing, that obviously we didn't know what we're doing because that's where everybody should have their money, and therefore, we didn't know what we're doing. And it rankled me a little bit.

Colin White:

Rankled, I guess that's a good word. Would rankled be a good word for that, Josh?

Josh Sheluk:

Based off of how I know you, I think, that's a fair a fair comment. Yes.

Colin White:

Well, maybe, Josh, why why don't you take the the the the the side of light and the side of goodness? Why do people have such a fondness for dividends right out of the gate? Where where does this love affair begin back in the annals of academic investing? Why why is this seen as such a good thing?

Josh Sheluk:

So the academic parts I'm gonna put that aside for a second. But I'm gonna answer the

Colin White:

Answer what answer whatever question you want.

Josh Sheluk:

Yeah. I'm gonna answer why why do people see this in such a positive light, and I think it's it's because it is a very tangible and consistent and observable thing. It's easy. It's easy to identify that this stock has a 5% dividend yield. Dividends are fairly consistent.

Josh Sheluk:

I'm gonna get 5% all the time. The market can go up. The market can go down. I'm getting my 5%. I'm getting paid every quarter.

Josh Sheluk:

I'm happy with that, and it's easy to see and it's tangible. And I think that is why there's such a an appeal of the dividend investing idea. It's an easy story. As as an advisor, it would be very easy for me to convey to somebody, hey, your stock can go up and go down. You get your 5%.

Josh Sheluk:

You should be happy every year. And I don't agree with that take, but it's very easy if I wanted to have a simple story for somebody as to why dividend investing is great. I could convey it very easily. And and so I think it's all those things that have have come to the forefront when this push for dividends, is is so appealing for some people.

Colin White:

Yeah. And I and I and I think it one step further is people also see it as profit. You know, they equate dividends with receiving profit. Therefore, you know, I'll leave my capital invested, and I'll keep taking the profit off of it in

Josh Sheluk:

the form

Colin White:

of a dividend. That's a very direct correlation to mine. And it's again, it's an oversimplification that's not true. But it is, hey. As you said, it's easy to say to somebody.

Colin White:

It doesn't matter if the market does. You're gonna get your money in this you know, you're just taking your profit off the table. Well, I'm just taking my profit and my capital is still there. I mean, there's a whole bunch of leaps there that are tragic, but that's that's the line of line of thought that fill it out a little bit.

Josh Sheluk:

Yeah. Yeah. I I think that's that's fair for sure.

Colin White:

Alright. So and it's funny. I was reading a piece on the RBC website on their ETF dividend investing about how dividends, lower portfolio risk. Do you think that's a statement that can be made current launch, Josh, without any caveats or explainers that you could just say dividends are less risky?

Josh Sheluk:

No. No. That that's definitely not true. Even in in a theoretical act or academic sense, it's not true. I think what is true is maybe a derivative of that in that more mature businesses tend to pay higher dividends.

Josh Sheluk:

So dividend paying companies may be may be more stable than nondividend paying companies. And I think if you if you look at things that way and if you don't control for any of the external factors, then I think that that could be a true statement.

Colin White:

Or as I would say, depending on how you squint and hold your tongue. Yeah. Maybe that's true. Yep. But but I guess you're right.

Colin White:

Older, more mature companies. But there's also I don't wanna jump around too much. I wanna try to keep this as some kind of a story. But dividend stocks do tend to be way more interest rate sensitive, than other parts of the market. You know, they they tend to move, you know because again, I've seen it happen, and I've had clients tell me how and they walk into the bank, and they're looking at a 4% GIC, and the adviser says, well, I can get you a 5% dividend.

Colin White:

That's better. Yeah. You know? So people get diverted from a 4% GIC into a 5% dividend paying something or other. Now there's just so much wrong with that on every possible level, but that does happen.

Colin White:

So money does flow back and forth in the liquid and paying stocks and or dividend paying product depending on how attractive interest rates are. So I think in periods of interest rate volatility, there might be more volatility in something that is is a a high dividend paying stock. Would that do you think that would hold up if we went back and looked at it?

Josh Sheluk:

Maybe. I'm not I'm not convinced on that. I I think what this kinda gets at is that dividend paying stocks tend to be concentrated in certain sectors of the market. And you can say some of those sectors like utilities, which tend to be high dividend payers, and real estate, for example, REITs especially, are definitely more interest rate sensitive, and and sort of in an in inverse way. So higher interest rates are probably gonna be more negative for those companies.

Josh Sheluk:

They tend to be more yield focused investments, and they tend to carry a lot of debt. So higher interest rates are necessarily negative for them. When you look at, like, banks, for example, which tend to be a little bit higher dividend payers in Canada as well, I think the sensitivity to interest rates breaks down a little bit. There's definitely some sensitivity there. I don't think it's necessarily the same, obvious inverse relationship that you'd get from from some other sectors.

Josh Sheluk:

So I I think there's some truth to what you're saying, but I think it's more related to the sectors that those dividend paying companies are concentrated in rather than a function of dividend paying companies themselves necessarily being sensitive to interest rates.

Colin White:

Could we have stopped this podcast with don't worry about the markets. We're just gonna pay you a good dividend on your money and your capital will still be there. People probably would have been happier with us.

Josh Sheluk:

But we would be very disappointed in ourselves, Colin, and that matters a whole lot.

Colin White:

Yeah. So, you know, again, just to go back on the history a little bit to kind of go back and forth. You know, dividends, ostensibly, are when a company, has money that they earned that they cannot invest back into the business and earn money on it. Like, almost too much money. Now what you hope is management referral would take earnings and take a look at opportunities to reinvest them back into the business at a hurdle rate, meaning that they're gonna get a return on above a certain mark.

Colin White:

And if they don't get that return, they would then choose to return the money to the shareholders so that they could reallocate it into the economic engine. And if it works that way, then that's, you know, the most efficient from a from a capitalism perspective. Company can't use the money above a certain hurdle rate, give it back to investors. Let them go choose where they're gonna put it, and they'll reallocate the capital in something that's good. But it's it's kinda morphed beyond that.

Colin White:

And if it ever was that, I I didn't know. I'm I'm talking theoretically only. But I know I know in the last 10, 15, 20 years, it has gotten way, way, way away from that. And now we're looking at, you know, when somebody is paying, they're gonna what's your payout ratio? And sometimes they're paying out more than what they're earning, or sometimes they're paying out less.

Colin White:

Sometimes they're paying out way more than they're earning, which means they're borrowing money to pay out to the shareholders in some odd way trying to support their share price by paying with dividends, and they've done some kind of mental gymnastics either as a corporate compensation package or the cost of borrowing is such that it makes sense. But it's it's gotten pretty murky in the last, I don't know, 5, 10, 15, 20 years. Well, let's let's let's take your time, Verizon Josh. Since you've been involved, have you noticed any movement in how dividends, air quotes, are used?

Josh Sheluk:

Not not really. I think it's it's been so so I think capital allocation is changing somewhat, maybe in a slightly different way than you're describing. But I I think I think that that that tendency so so maybe maybe I can just paraphrase what you're saying what I think you're saying. Yep. And and that's that, companies are now very focused on maintaining their dividend because it has direct implications for how the market reviews their stock.

Josh Sheluk:

And companies may be willing to continue a dividend when it doesn't make the most sense. It's not maybe optimal for their business, and I think that that's true. Is is that kind of what you're saying? Yep. Yeah.

Josh Sheluk:

And I don't I don't know that that's changed since I've been around. I haven't been around long enough maybe to see it change. Right? To see it evolve the way that you're describing. But I think one thing that has changed, especially in the US, is that companies are moving away from dividends in favor of stock stock buybacks, which share buybacks, which is just a different way of returning capital and maybe a more intelligent way of returning capital to to shareholders, because it doesn't have to be the same percentage or same amount every quarter like a dividend does.

Josh Sheluk:

And it gives a company a little bit more flexibility to adjust to change in market dynamics, which is how a company should operate quite frankly.

Colin White:

Well and it is something that can be prone to manipulation in the right circumstances because you do have corporate, you know, compensation packages that have, you know, shares involved in them and stuff. So there can be, in some situations, motivation at the table to manipulate the dividends in such a way to support corporate compensation over, you know, any particular goals of the company or goals of the shareholder as well. Yeah. Because it is something that can be gained. Like, you know, you you you can play with dividends, and you can have an effect with it.

Colin White:

And, you know, anything that can be gained will be gained. Yeah. It depends on what the the motivations of of the people are involved. So that that's where it gets murky. You know, that that that's where, you know, I get really, you know, I don't believe that it's a simple thing.

Colin White:

You know, hey. I'll just give you the money. Don't worry about the market. She'll give me your profits. I'll leave my capital there.

Colin White:

You know, that that math doesn't fly. There's there's way more under the hood than that for sure.

Josh Sheluk:

Yep. So let let me taking that first question that you asked about why do people do this. Let me throw one back at you, which I think is it it's a on a simple level, it's a reasonable argument, but I want you to poke some holes in it. So let's say I have a $100,000, invested in whatever dividend paying company x, and the market's down. I don't wanna sell my company.

Josh Sheluk:

I don't wanna sell when it's down, but I'm getting a dividend, and I'm able to live off of the dividends that are paid to me. I think this is a big argument. Right? I retire. I buy dividend paying stocks.

Josh Sheluk:

I'm able to live off my dividends. Tell me why that does or doesn't make sense as an argument for dividend payers.

Colin White:

Well, again, it's it's viewing that the dividends is being, you know, something that can't change. You know, that's part of it. You know, we we saw this here not that long ago. We we picked an entry point after dividend cut. Now Gong was one of the utility companies that was paying a very stable dividend for a long period of time, and all of a sudden you wake up one day and it goes away.

Colin White:

And I think there's a, overconfidence in dividends. And there's a lot of blue chip companies that pay dividends. You know? Nortel is a blue chip company. You know?

Colin White:

And, again, these are the these are the extremes. You know? These these are the odd things out there, but they happen always. Like, there's always surprises in that space. So to think that, you know, I'm in retirement.

Colin White:

All my money is tied up in the stock, and I'm gonna live off the dividend is really risky. There's an article on the globe I was reading today about talking about how these beat up dividend stocks, you know, are are back in favor now because GIC rates have dropped below 5%, and more money is flowing into them. I just grabbed a couple of TransCanada pipe. I mean, the the the the price, the share, the drawdown, I think it was 75 to $50. It was, you know, one of the larger drawdowns.

Colin White:

Right? So if I'm in retirement and situation changes and my money just drew down the capital, you think you just left there, has dropped by 30%. That's a big deal. That that takes away a lot of options for adjusting to things as they happen. And I think you're putting way too much confidence in a dividend payment to think that it's reliable as your all of your retirement income, because, again, it's just there's there's too much volatility in the underlying.

Colin White:

And You can go through and take a look at any of those dividend paying stocks. And dividend paying stocks have actually underperformed a lot of periods over the last 10 years. And, you know, so you're you think you're getting ahead by doing that. You're actually taking yourself further behind because if you're if you're going with dividend paying stocks, you're going with a specific thing that has a specific set of attributes. And so, therefore, you're more fragile than if you're relying on a whole system that is stronger.

Colin White:

It's that whole diversification thing I'm talking about. Yeah. The fallacy that your capital is there, air quotes, and that's that doesn't hold. You know? The the capital may or may not be there.

Colin White:

Only there if the share price holds up.

Josh Sheluk:

Yeah. Yeah. I think a lot of what you're getting at there is like, we try to look at everything from a total return perspective. And however we get to that total return, it doesn't matter a whole lot. Like, I'll I would say almost unequivocally, I would rather have a 5% capital gain than a 4% dividend.

Josh Sheluk:

And if you wanna argue with me about that, feel free to come on the podcast. I'm sure we'll have a good discussion. But but but that's kind of where we that's that's how we try to look at it. It's like we it's not like it's not that we think dividend investors are losers, or that it's for losers or that they suck or anything like that. It's that it's just one component of a return.

Josh Sheluk:

And as an investor, we should be somewhat ambivalent between capital gains, dividends, or interest, taxes aside for the time being. And then coming back to the idea, well, I if I don't have to sell when the market's down, I can just let my, you know, let things run and and, recover. That's that's noble. That's great. But think of it this way.

Josh Sheluk:

If you have a $100,000 invested in a company and they pay you a $5,000 dividend, that's taken $5,000 out of your investment. Like, that investment is now worth $95,000. So it'd be the exact same thing, practically speaking, as taking that $100,000 investment and selling $5,000 and putting it in your pocket and going to spend it. So there's there's a there's a bit of a disconnect between what a dividend actually is for somebody. It's taking capital out of out of a stock based investment and going to do other things with it.

Colin White:

And just to bunny trail off for a second, this is something else that's floated up there because there is slightly preferable treatment to Canadian dividends, you know, for a Canadian shareholder. So there are those who believe Canadian dividends are the only thing now. You've really gone further down the bunny hole, and you have concentrated your portfolio even further from a geographic perspective. And if you do the math on what that does to the risk profile of your portfolio, it's not positive. It's not it doesn't make it less volatile for doing that.

Colin White:

But, again, it's one of those won't be. Again, really easy to say, really easy to implement. Hey. You know, doesn't know if the market does. I'm gonna give you this tax effective dividend income out of your portfolio.

Colin White:

Wow. Tax effective. My capital's still there, and I'm getting paid. Oh my god. Where do I sign up?

Colin White:

And that's where the logic stops. And you end up with somebody who's got a prospects, you know, clients 100 per 100% of their money tied up in Canadian dividend paying stocks. That's my father than I used to say, difference in scratching your ass and tearing it to pieces. You know, Canadian dividend paying stocks can be part of your portfolio for sure. But to think that that's the be all and end all, you know, again, you you are absolutely increasing the risk profile of your account.

Colin White:

There's there's no mathematical way otherwise. Yeah. But people love saving tax. Hey. You're gonna save tax.

Colin White:

Oh my god. They stopped listening. They really don't care what comes after that. It's the easiest way to get somebody to do something. Till it gets well overused.

Josh Sheluk:

Right. Yeah. And you know what else helps you save taxes? Deferred capital gains.

Colin White:

Oh, I know. Right? Yep. You don't have to

Josh Sheluk:

Can you believe it?

Colin White:

You don't have to capital gains or tax advantage too. Right?

Josh Sheluk:

Yeah. That's right. Your stock can go up in value, and you don't have to sell it, and you don't have to pay tax at all. Holy I think we just stumbled onto something you're calling.

Colin White:

Wait. Let's let's book a roadshow, go over across the country, and tell everybody how wonderful this is.

Josh Sheluk:

Yep. But, so you mentioned, there there hasn't been a a consistent track record of dividend strategies outperforming. And I actually looked at a bunch of different markets, a bunch of different strategies, a bunch of different indices just to see how it holds up because you'd think that at some point people would start poking holes in this dividend strategy and looking at the actual track record of it and saying, wait. Maybe this isn't so awesome. But I think that hasn't really happened.

Josh Sheluk:

But anyway so I looked at a bunch of different indices around the world, and I looked at the last 15 years. And so I looked at Europe. In Europe, a dividend strategy has underperformed, a broad index, a broad benchmark. And I I tried by the way, so I looked at our database. There's 646 dividend indexes in our database.

Josh Sheluk:

So I'm sure somebody out there is gonna argue with me about the indexes that I chose, but I tried to choose broad very broad, very general generic dividend indexes just to so I could get the pure dividend index versus just the the broadest benchmark that I could in that same market. So Europe, dividends underperformed over 15 years. In the US, dividends underperformed for the last 15 years. In global markets, dividends have underperformed. In emerging markets, dividends have underperformed.

Josh Sheluk:

In Canada, dividends have slightly out outperformed over a 15 year period. And internationally, dividends have outperformed over a 15 year period but not over a 10 year period. And just to provide something that's a little bit more tangible for somebody, I looked at some BMO ETFs. I looked at the BMO S and PTSX Composite ETF versus the BMO Canadian Dividend ETF. The TSX Composite ETF has outperformed by 1.5% per year over the last 10 years.

Josh Sheluk:

And I looked at the US market as well, the s and p five 100 ETF from BMO versus the US dividend paying ETF from BMO, and the s and p five 100 has outperformed by 3.5% over the last 10 years. So at best, dividend investing has a spotty track record of outperforming. And at worst, you could say that broadly speaking, it hasn't outperformed. It's actually underperformed and in some markets quite substantially over the last 10 to 15 years.

Colin White:

Well, the beautiful thing about

Colin White:

how we position this argument is that makes us the winner because we're starting from the premise that it's always the best, and that's how many people treat it. And by proving that it's not always the best, we win. We have we don't need to prove it's always the worst. I mean, that's too bad

Josh Sheluk:

of a problem.

Colin White:

We're not going that far.

Josh Sheluk:

We have yes. We we set a low bar for ourselves for sure.

Colin White:

Exactly. So we're we I just wanted I want us to disavow people of the idea that this is a simple solution. I and people love simple solutions. They really do. Right?

Josh Sheluk:

We love simple solutions. People should love simple solutions, but what I think we're trying to say is this is not a solution or you think it's a solution and it it's not actually not.

Colin White:

Looking for love in all the wrong places. You know? Yes. The simple solution is always the best solution, but it has to be a solution. Just because it's simple doesn't make it a solution.

Colin White:

Yeah. Simple solutions are best, but not all not all simple things are solutions.

Josh Sheluk:

Right. Yeah. 2 +2 equals 5 is simple, but but it's not right.

Colin White:

Yeah. No. No. Absolutely. No.

Colin White:

I I think that it's, and I I guess we can let us trail off a little bit. I don't know if you put this in your, your 3 bullet points for this pod. But what the industry has done with manufactured products and dividends versus distributions and how that's been gained. Because that's something that the industry because this is so convincing. Dividends are great.

Colin White:

Your capital sits there. We're gonna pay you a dividend. The, you know, the financial industry has bought into that, and now you have a lots of products out there that'll pay you a fixed distribution that they call a dividend. And oftentimes, that distribution that they call a dividend is return of capital, meaning they're giving your own money back. So, you know, they'll you'll invest in something and they'll say, well, this has got a 12% dividend.

Colin White:

Oh my god. A 12% dividend? It makes 12%. That's great. And everybody is, you know, happy until you realize that it's eating away at your adjusted cost base.

Colin White:

It's not growing by 12%. So your capital is eroding. And when you sell at a loss, you actually still have a capital gain, and you just know, you're gonna have some reason to have to call me, and I'll explain how that works. But in those products, and we've just seen it very recently with the prospect, you can sell at a loss, like, have lost money and still end up with the capital gain you gotta pay, because of the erosion of the the cost base. So dividend and distribution get used interchangeably, and I've attended presentations where I corrected the presenter who refused to be corrected.

Colin White:

Because the distribution is way different than a dividend in a practical sense and often is you know, has a return of capital. And those can be ETFs. They can be mutual funds. They can be any kind of product up there. They put a fixed distribution or dividend on them specifically aimed at the retirement group and say, this has got an 8% dividend.

Colin White:

Oh my god. That's way better than my bank stock. And that's all everybody stops talking at that moment, and the client goes into the product and wakes up 10 years later and wonders how they got there.

Josh Sheluk:

Yeah. And a lot of times they'll just use the term yield. You have an 8% yield on this product. Okay. Well, what does that mean?

Josh Sheluk:

Does does does that mean that it's actually earning 8% or does that mean that you're just taking my initial pool of capital and giving me 8% of it back every year? Because those are 2 very different things. And that's it has muddied the water. And, like, there's I think there's valid reasons for trying to keep things consistent in terms of distributions, but I think the more cynical side of me says that, it's been used to to a marketing effect, and it's a bit of a veiled, consistency that's not necessarily there for people.

Colin White:

Well oh, absolutely. I mean, because you are cashing our units. I mean, again, the way we handle, you know, paying money out to a client is we use a cash flow, save money in a high interest savings account for a period of time. And that's where your money comes from rather than cashing on investment accounting on a distribution accounting on any of these other mechanisms that are put in place because they're all those are all artificial, and they all have holes in them. So we but we just wanna see the account grow.

Colin White:

We're agnostic to how it grows. Like, we'll we'll take interest if it comes. We'll take dividends. We'll take capital gains. Fantastic.

Colin White:

We'll take all of that, Then we'll just convert that into something that's more secure for paying it to a client. That's more complicated. That's more complicated to do it that way. You know, you have to meet with your clients regularly. Oh my god.

Colin White:

You have to review, you know, their needs for cash and and make an allocation. And, you know, you can't just cash their check, work Tuesday to Thursday, and only take phone calls between 10 and 2. You actually have to put an effort in. Sorry. Now I'm ranting.

Josh Sheluk:

So there's is one point there where I think something with a distribution makes sense, and that's if you are somebody who exists in a world with transaction costs. So if you are paying a commission for every cell that you have on a monthly basis, then you can kinda talk me into I need the dividend so I don't have to pay to sell my stock every month to get the cash flow that I need. I still think transaction costs are so small now that they've been whittled down to such a small amount of the overall pie most likely that that argument doesn't really hold up anymore. It might have held up 30 years ago when you're paying $250 for a stock trade, but now you can find a lot of platforms where it's actually literally free to do a stock trade. So, or an ETF trade or something.

Josh Sheluk:

So I don't know that that argument is still valid.

Colin White:

Well, I'll push back with that a little bit because, again, I don't think that it's a great strategy to be selling something in the market every month to live on. You know, you should be doing that you should be doing that in lumpy. Like, you know, once a year, once every 18 months, topping up a savings account, living off that.

Josh Sheluk:

So not selling stocks. Selling stocks on a monthly basis to is probably probably not where you wanna go. Right?

Colin White:

Yep. Yeah. But, again, for me, it's any market exposed to anything that's got volatility to it because, again, month over month, you can see volatility. And, you know, pick picking a a good month and and setting aside a year's worth of income, then you're manage that that's managing risk. That's that's making sure that you're not exposing yourself to the next big apocalyptic pandemic locusts swarm, earthquake, volcano, Trump's president again situation.

Colin White:

You know, but it's a it's a different way of managing risk. Now those would argue against me saying, well, my money is out of the market. We your short term money shouldn't be in the market. Mhmm. You you you wanna keep your short term money short term because the things are just you you can't can't tell what's gonna happen next.

Colin White:

Yeah.

Josh Sheluk:

So you mentioned academic research before and what that suggests about dividends. And this is one thing where, again, it it kinda it pushes back. It refutes anybody that's out there really, really promoting dividends because there's academic research that shows all kinds of things, all kinds of different factors or attributes of companies helps those companies, get better performance. And some of it's valid, some of it's maybe not, some of it's a little bit hard to swallow. There's there's some issues with some of that research.

Josh Sheluk:

But consistently, dividend yield does not show up as something academically through research, peer reviewed research, as something that would add value over time. There's just not a lot of evidence that suggests that. So even if you discount the actual results that we are talking about over the last 10 to 15 years, academically going back decades, there's not a lot of of support to the idea that dividends are gonna help you outperform.

Colin White:

Gotcha. If I put my capital in, it's gonna pay me 5%. I don't have to worry about the market. That's good. Right?

Josh Sheluk:

Sounds good on the surface. I think we've done enough to refute that by now, hopefully. Rewind it

Colin White:

I know.

Josh Sheluk:

Minute 2 and listen again. You have to ask that question.

Colin White:

No. Again, it's unfortunate, but it's complicated. And any effort to ignore the complication, you do it in your own peril, because there's some very material things. And, again, the Canadian dividend paying space, especially if you go into the utility sector, has seen some severe volatility in your prices, then that matters. You know, do you want all of your retirement money tied up in something where you're not touching your capital, but your capital has dropped by 30% even though you didn't touch it.

Colin White:

Again, the those kinds of things have gone on and can go on. And I I it's really, really a shame when I when you see that happen, and you really don't want to. I don't like seeing that happen. And that and that's why I got on the soapbox about this. I don't like people having displaced confidence because, man, it hurts when you fall off.

Colin White:

That really, really hurts, and that confidence is just not warranted. So so please please please don't think dividends are, you know, god's gift to anything. It's part of the money you wanna make, but you you really can't shouldn't rely on that as the sole metric that you're that you're using.

Josh Sheluk:

As we leave on so many of these podcasts, we remind people that diversification is super important and maybe the most important thing when investing. And almost by definition, dividend focused investing is reducing, your diversification, sometimes to a significant extent. So if you take anything away from this conversation, maybe that's it.

Colin White:

And dividends are pro losers.

Colin White:

If you're breaking a sweat trying to figure out what your financial advisor is talking about, you're not getting the service you need. You probably hate trying to get an answer from them, but you also think moving your accounts will be a headache, And it might be. But working with don't rock the boat wealth planning.com or. Ru isn't exactly stress free, is it? Call us.

Colin White:

We will demystify the world for you.

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