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Dan Hope and Andy Anders of Eleven Warriors bring you inside the Ohio State beat every Wednesday with a podcast covering everything you need to know about the Buckeyes.
Note: This transcript was AI-generated and has not been edited for errors.
[Dan Hope]
Welcome into Real Pod Wednesdays. I'm Dan Hope joined by Andy Anders as it's officially college football playoff week in Columbus as the Buckeyes prepare to host one of the first ever home games in college football playoff history. The first round of the first ever 12 team CFP coming up this week and Ohio State hosting Tennessee in the 8-9 game of that first round.
Andy, this is unprecedented. I still don't know that it's quite hit me yet, but we are going to be covering a college football playoff game in Ohio Stadium on Saturday.
[Andy Anders]
Yeah, it'll definitely be a surreal experience. You know, we've both been covering football a long time and this is just a game that's the first of its kind. And I think that excitement has been expressed by Ryan Day, by members of Ohio State's team.
But, you know, again, as reporters, it's even just going to be a really cool experience to be in that environment. I am thankful that we'll be in the press box and not out in the cold during the game. But either way, I'm really looking forward to that experience and being in that environment.
[Dan Hope]
Yeah, our Garrett Codge will have to brave the cold as our photographer. I'm sure he'll be wearing his famous yellow skidoo snowmobile jacket, so we'll be able to see him from up high in the press box and he will stand out and get some great photos for us for sure on what will be a historic night in Ohio Stadium. The marquee night game that Ohio State fans have been waiting for all year long, so it should be a great environment.
And Meshou can't wait to see what it's like on Saturday night. And of course, for Ohio State, you know, everything on the line in this game. I mean, potentially even the future of the program and who's going to be coaching the Buckeyes on the line in this game.
So the stakes could not be much higher for the Buckeyes as they, you know, didn't beat Michigan. They didn't win the Big Ten, but they still have a chance to win the national championship. That starts this week.
Andy, we talked about it last week and we both were kind of around 60 to 65% confident. You went with a 65% confident that Ohio State would beat Tennessee. As we now sit here a week later, just three days out from that game, is your confidence level still the same?
Is it higher? Is it lower? Where are you at?
[Andy Anders]
I actually think it has dropped slightly in the past couple of weeks or at least since last week when we last had our episode of Real Pod Wednesdays. And it's because I think the more I've dove into this, I just think Tennessee might actually be pretty well equipped to handle the cold, and we talked about that a little bit last week. But just the ability, the consistency of Tennessee's running game with Dylan Sampson and the fact that, you know, he's gotten 100 yards 10 out of 12 games and one in which he didn't, you know, he would have if he'd have played all game, but they were blowing out UTEP, so why keep him in?
The fact that he's been that consistent, they've been able to move the ball on the ground, they have such a balanced attack in that respect while their passing offense hasn't been as productive as others throughout the season. I think when you talk about the RPO game, there's balance where they can threaten both the run and pass on a lot of plays. They force defenses to cover the entire field with wide spacing, and that's why I think Dylan Sampson has had the success he's had in some respects, you know, from the schematic perspective certainly.
And also he's a great running back, of course. But then you look at Tennessee's run defense and this defensive line, I just think the problematic nature of that matchup for Ohio State has kind of weighed a little heavier on my mind, so I guess I'd drop it to like 60% now. You know, and not too drastic a fall off, but I do think my confidence has shrunk a little bit just as like, you know, we're going to talk about the offensive line shuffles that have continued, and we got some clarity at least on Wednesday about what it will look like a little bit, but to be shuffling your offensive line again, heading into this kind of game where it's going to be cold and running the ball might be, you know, are you going to be able to throw the ball consistently? You hope so, but if you have to try and run the ball, then Tennessee's got a fantastic run defense, and you've had all these moving pieces on the interior of your offensive line that I just don't see coalescing well, so Ohio State's going to have to do a better job scheming around that, and I think they will, but this game, I see it turning into a rock fight, and Tennessee with their rushing offense, I think, could present some problems in a rock fight.
[Dan Hope]
It's an interesting matchup because I think, you know, from an overall pound-for-pound talent perspective, I think Ohio State certainly has the edge in that regard, but there's also not, like, one specific area that I look at and go, Ohio State has the clear-cut advantage here, whereas I think you do see that with, you know, Tennessee's defensive front versus Ohio State's offensive line. You feel like that's an edge that Tennessee has, the same edge that Michigan had in Ohio State's last game, and I don't, and unlike that Michigan game, I don't go into this game saying, like, this is a clear weakness that Ohio State can expose and should expose. I think Tennessee's going to be able to be pretty competitive with Ohio State in all areas.
Now, you know, I do think Ohio State has, you know, the better receivers in this game, so I think, you know, that's one area where I think, you know, Ohio State should, on paper, be the more explosive team through the air offensively, but I think, you know, I think, you know, the way Tennessee has run the ball and the issues Ohio State has had running the ball since Seth McLaughlin went down would, you know, suggest that Tennessee's going to have the advantage in terms of, you know, rushing offense versus rushing offense. Now, you know, I think the thing that gives me confidence in Ohio State going into this game is its defense and how well its defense is played.
I mean, the defense has been the best in the country. I mean, for a whole year, statistically, it has been. I think particularly since that Oregon game, you know, Ohio State's defense, you know, really has been a dominant unit, and so I think if it can be that in this game, then Ohio State will have a good chance to win, but, you know, much like, you know, Penn State, Michigan games, I do think there's a good chance this is going to be a lower scoring game and it could come down to, you know, who makes more stops in the red zone and who executes better, you know, in the red zone. Whether, you know, Ohio State can do a better job of, you know, keeping drives alive and finishing drives than it did in that Michigan game. I do think this is probably one of those games that, you know, is going to come down to one score and it could come down to the difference between a touchdown and a field goal or a made field goal and a missed field goal, and that's another question mark for Ohio State.
So, I'd still say I'm at 60%, but I can't go any higher than that because I do think that this is a challenging matchup for the Buckeyes.
[Andy Anders]
Yeah, and to that point, you know, I had said last week that I thought the spread of seven, seven and a half points, depending on where that line is, and that line hasn't moved really that much. It's, I said that I thought it was about right. I now am of the mindset that I think it's a little too big, kind of where you were last week.
Just thinking about how close this game could ultimately be in the low-scoring nature of what kind of, I think, how it's actually going to play out here. So, I kind of see a much closer, not a much closer, because seven is still kind of close, but, you know, I kind of see a three- to four-point margin in this one. Dan, has your thoughts vis-à-vis the spread changed at all?
[Dan Hope]
No, because that's already where I was last week. I'm still pretty much there, but I think, you know, like I said, I think it's probably going to be a one-score kind of game. And, you know, I would, you know, betting, if I was betting on one side with the spread, I would pick Tennessee because of them getting that seven-plus points right now.
The over-under, also interesting. Forty-five-and-a-half points. Where would you go on that one, Andy?
Would you go over or under?
[Andy Anders]
Under. My score prediction, we'll make our score predictions later, but my score prediction is going to be under. I, again, I think it's going to be a rock fight where both of these defenses are really good.
Ohio State's offense, with the questions on the offensive line, and, again, how good Tennessee's defense is, it might be tougher then to put up some points. You just mentioned Ohio State has the best defense in college football this year, statistically, and I think just in terms of the players, they have, too, right? They are going to be able to contain Tennessee in a lot of what Tennessee wants to do.
Not that I think they'll shut Tennessee out or anything, but I see a low-scoring output from both offenses in this game, and as such, I think 45-and-a-half, I mean, 24-21 still doesn't get you there. So I'm going under, Dan, and how do you see it playing?
[Dan Hope]
I'm also going under, not by a wide margin, but I do lean toward the under because, like you said, the questions we have with Ohio State's offensive line and the fact that I think both of these defenses are really good, and, again, that offensive line, you mentioned it before, it seems like, as we sit here on Wednesday, that Luke Montgomery is probably going to be that starting left guard. Ryan Day wouldn't outright say that on Wednesday, but the brief opportunity we had to watch practice on Tuesday, he was in there as that first-team left guard. It looks like they're going to stick with Carson Hinsman at center, Integra Shabolla at right guard, and then Ryan Day says he expects Austin Seariveld to get playing time at both left and right guard.
So, Andy, you're our big offensive line guy here. What do you think of his plan?
[Andy Anders]
I think what's been interesting hearing Ryan Day talk about Luke Montgomery, and last week I asked him about Luke and Josh Padilla. Wednesday, Dylan Davis of the Delaware Gazette asked him about Luke specifically and what he's done to earn this opportunity, and it really hasn't been Day exactly gushing about Luke. Yes, he acknowledged the improvements that Luke has made over the course of the season, but it's not the situation, whether it was Luke or last week when Joshua Padilla was also in that mix, it didn't seem to be the impetus of these guys have to get on the field.
They're showing so much in practice. They deserve playing time. They command it.
It was more of the offensive line looks so atrocious against Michigan that they had to evaluate their options and see if there was anything that they could do to remotely raise the level, especially of that interior offensive line. And again, I just don't know with the shuffles how it's going to play because we've talked about it numerous times. Chemistry is more important to the offensive line than any other position unit, position room in football.
You have to be so in sync, left tackle to right tackle to effectively move bodies in the running game to properly pick up blitzes when it's the pass. In Tennessee, I'm sure we'll be sending some creative pressures at these youngsters that are mixing in on the interior between Tegra and Carson and Luke and Austin. I also just don't know about rotating in game when you have Lukes who, if he does start at left guard, will be making his first start.
And if he isn't starting, will be basically commanding his first like big time snaps, legitimate snaps. I know he did some like six, he was the sixth offensive lineman in some packages as a freshman, right? But that, I mean, this is like CFP, first round game at home against Tennessee at a huge game.
Like Luke's got to get his feet under him. And if you're rolling guys, I just, I have a lot of hesitations about how that's going to work from a chemistry perspective. Now they have done it at other points in the year.
They have had decent enough performances when they were rolling Tegra, Shavola, and Austin Sehrabeld there at the right guard position previously. But I just, again, it's the hesitancy of this big of a game when you're, it just feels like you're throwing a bunch of stuff at the wall and hoping it sticks rather than this is something we're confident in. And look, I get it.
Your two best offensive linemen have suffered season ending injuries, right? This unit's been crippled. Offensive line depth is really hard to build.
We can talk about Justin Fry's misses. As a recruiter, they're there, but not a lot of teams in the country after losing their two best offensive linemen would still be able to hold up at that position. So you don't envy the predicament Ohio State's in.
At the same time, I'm not sure if, you know, Luke's just not showing that much in practice to where it's like he has to be on the field if a shuffle like this is the right idea. And I also thought that Padilla might have made more sense because pointing him in at center and moving Carson to guard, back to guard, where he was clearly better, was a change that could clearly, like, improve that position for Ohio State. But clearly Josh wasn't to that.
Joshua wasn't to that caliber yet where they felt confident in him rolling out there at center in a big game like this. And so you keep Carson there. I understand that.
But again, I just have hesitancies about rolling guys on the interior when you're trying to break in presumably someone new. And also Austin and Tegra haven't looked all that great here in this late stretch of the season.
[Dan Hope]
I do too. I'm still, you know, curious kind of like how much are we actually going to see this rotation? Like, I think that, you know, it's easy to just kind of hear things and take them at exact face value and react to the way things are said at face value.
Whereas I think some of the way Ryan Day's played this is like he does want to see more from these guys in practice. So, you know, even going into, you know, Wednesday practice before that press conference, I think some of it's like he's still trying to challenge these guys. He didn't, he, I think he knew on Wednesday afternoon who's probably going to be the starting guards.
But when he was asked about it, he said, I don't really know who the starters are yet. Cause I don't think he wants to tell any of them they're the starters until he asked you because he wants all three of them to be going into practice on Wednesday afternoon thinking like we got to go out there and earn this job. We got to go prove ourselves.
So I think he's still trying to challenge those guys. And I think part, I think that's part of it. That said on Saturday, like you gotta, you gotta go for whatever gives you the best chance to win period and whatever that, whatever that looks like, like you should only do a rotation.
If you actually think that is going to make the offensive line better, which generally like a rotation on the offensive line isn't something that makes an offensive line better. So I think some of it's like, we just don't know who the two best guys are, but you know, to some degree, it's like you might have to just pick two and commit to those two. And then, you know, if you have to just replace somebody, that's a little different than just like rotating guys throughout the game.
But I think some of it is like wanting all three of them to be ready to start play a lot, whatever that is. And I don't know if it's necessary, you know, I don't think it's going to be a situation where it's, you know, Oh, you know, Tegra's in one series and then Austin's in one series. And if they're just flipping guys the whole game, I don't think so.
I don't know. So, but I don't think so. I think it's more of a matter of, you know, they just don't really know who their best guys are because of the fact that they, they are effectively down to starters on the interior offensive line because they had to move Donovan Jackson out to left tackle.
And so, you know, I think ultimately it's, it's, it's a bad situation and you're trying to make the best of it. I mean, it's, it's like you said, the reality is like you're down to your seventh and eighth guys in there. And most teams on their seventh and eighth guys are not going to have stars waiting in the wings.
And, you know, I think it's, you know, I think that's just for reality, but like, you know, I know a lot of the commentary of the last couple of days from Ohio state fans have been like, really like Tegra Shaboa is still in the starting lineup when he's like clearly been the weak link of what that starting offensive line was. But I think what, what it tells you is they don't have confidence that the next man up is going to be better than Tegra Shaboa. Like that's just the reality of a situation.
Like, you know, people always get excited to see the next guy up. If, if somebody plays poorly, there's always this thinking of the next guy is going to be better. I think what they're telling you is we really don't know if those next guys are going to be any better.
They might be worse. You know, and I think, you know, especially at center, that's kind of a, that's the concern because like, you know, you got to snap that ball reliably. Like you can't be, you know, having bad snaps.
And yes, we saw Carson Hinsman have bad snaps against Michigan, but to throw a guy in there, who's really never played in its center. I mean, you know, anything happens to Carson Hinsman, they're going to have to do it with Joshua Padilla. But I think to, to do that in a game of this magnitude, to throw a guy out there who's really never played center is a daunting task.
And so I think that's why they are sticking of Carson Hinsman there at center. But yeah, I mean, it's, it's hard to be super confident in, in this group, just knowing that it is kind of a patchwork interior offensive line. And you know, the fact of it, the fact that they're in this position where, you know, they, they, they aren't coming out right and saying, yeah, these are our starters three days before a college football playoff game.
I, I think, you know, it's clear that this position group is a concern. And like you said, Ohio state has to do a better job than it did against Michigan of scheming around it, calling plays around it to, to try to mask that deficiency rather than playing into it.
[Andy Anders]
Absolutely. And I get, you can't, we've talked about it at nausea, but you can't, I get, you can't totally abandon the run game, the, even the interior run game, but it's leaning heavier on the passing game at least. And also scheming up better and more ingenuitive ways to run the football.
Like just pounding it between the guards. Isn't going to work here. You have to mix in various schemes, whether that's counters, whether that's two back sets where you're using some misdirection from that look, and you could even motion in a Mecca, like we've seen at times this year, there's a lot of inventive ways that I think you could employ to run the ball.
And I get the screen game involved too in that, right. That we just didn't see against Michigan moving on another position. Ohio state's evaluating here is kicker.
And obviously we saw Jaden fielding miss two kicks inside of 40 yards that really cost Ohio state in that Michigan game. Never want to pin a loss on one guy. And we've talked a lot about the other problems that plagued Ohio state and that play calling being among the top ones.
But nonetheless, after this isn't exactly a guy who has had a great year overall, Jaden fielding, even going back to that Marshall game, when he kicked three straight kickoffs out of bounds, there have been a lot of ups and downs for fielding this season. And the problem is of course you don't, your next option is a walk on and Austin Snyder. So Dan, do you think we see a change at kicker for Ohio state against Tennessee, or do you think they keep riding it with, with Jaden fielding?
[Dan Hope]
I think they probably stick with Jaden fielding. I mean, we, we, we saw Ryan do this after that Marshall game where he kind of left it up in the air. Is it going to be fielding?
Is it going to be Austin Snyder? He ultimately went with Jaden fielding. You know, obviously Jaden fielding had a bad game against Michigan.
He was eight of nine on field goals before that Michigan game, though he's five of six from 40 yards out this year. So while I think it's a concern, I still think Jaden fielding is their best kicker. You know, I w I mean, we just don't really have any evidence with Austin Snyder.
He's never kicked a field goal from a Buckeyes. You know, he was a kicker back at the division two level at Finley a couple years ago, but again, it kind of goes back to, like, you know, the next man up is not always going to be better. If, if he was better, we probably would have seen him play by now.
So, you know, again, I think what Ryan Day said Wednesday was, was more of a challenge to Jaden than anything else. I mean, if Jaden goes out there and, you know, as we speak as having a terrible practice on Wednesday or something like that, that could change things. But I, I think it was more of a challenge to Jaden of like, you know, you gotta, you gotta go show us in practice today that we can rely on you as, as our field goal kicker.
So I, I expect him to still be the kicker against Tennessee, but we'll see.
[Andy Anders]
Yeah. I, I would expect the same honestly. And just because like you said, Snyder's very unproven and fielding has had good stretches of play, even dating back to last year.
He's had good stretches of, of making field goals, but it is something where you want to see it from him again in practice. And these bigger stages, the Michigan game, the playoff, you want to be able to rely on your kicker. Now to his credit, he did make a couple of key field goals at Penn state earlier this year.
So don't want to totally write it off as, you know, he's had bad games and big games, because that was a good performance from him in a big game, but certainly something for Ohio state to, it is worthwhile to issue that challenge. If you're Ryan Day. Big discussion point around this game has been the weather of course.
And it's the mystique of having that SEC team travel into the north, going to have to play in the cold. Forecasts have been dropping steadily over the last week or so. I've noticed and wrote about even on 11 warriors here earlier in the week about this feels like temperature right now is projected to get below 20 degrees.
Dan, what kind of impact do you think the cold will have on this game? Or, or do you think some of the narrative around it is a little overhyped?
[Dan Hope]
I mean, I don't, I think it's overhyped in a sense, but I don't necessarily think it's going to have a massive impact on the game. Because, you know, as you've talked about before, I mean, you know, this, this is, you know, a Tennessee team that's really good at running the ball. And, and I think a lot of times this idea of like, you have to run the ball when it's cold, it gets overblown too.
Like, you know, if it's really windy, like you have to run the ball more, but like cold weather doesn't stop you from throwing the ball. So I don't necessarily expect it to have a huge impact on the game. Now.
I think, you know, but I think maybe, you know, seeing the clip that has been circulating this week where, you know, they were talking about, you know, the Tennessee players like freezing on the sideline when it was 55 degrees. Like that made me think a little bit like, Hmm. I mean, I mean, it does, you know, Knoxville is not Hawaii.
You know, it's, it's, it's, it does get cold there. I mean, they were taking pictures of it snowing during a practice earlier this year. It does get cold there, but this is still really cold for Tennessee to be playing a football game.
I mean, there's not many instances in Tennessee's history of playing a football game in weather like this. Now granted Ohio state hasn't played in weather like this all year either, but closest they came to it was against Michigan and that game did not go well. So I don't know that Ohio state is a team that's necessarily built to thrive in cold weather either, but you know, Ohio state has been practicing outdoors all month to, to try to prepare for this.
You know, there was, you know, I know in Tennessee had its practice open on Tuesday that they were practicing indoors. So, you know, I, I do think that, you know, Ohio state should be the team that's better prepared for the cold than Tennessee. Does it have a big impact in terms of like how I predict this game playing out?
Not really, but I do think it plays a little bit into the home field advantage for Ohio state, just because, you know, you don't get a lot of, you know, especially during football season, you're not having a lot of games where it's going to feel like it's below 20 down in Knoxville.
[Andy Anders]
Yeah. The reason I place a big emphasis on running the ball in the cold to your point, it there's nothing stopping you from throwing the ball in cold weather when yeah. And a lot of times when comes with cold, it's not really going to in this game, you know, forecasts about 10 miles per hour should be able to throw fine in that.
The reason I always think like running game is really important in cold weather is because when I'm sure, even if you never played football, like if you were ever on the playground as a kid in like 30 degree weather and you like smacked your hand too hard on the monkey bars, it hurts a lot more like everything. Hits, you just feel the impact of every bit of contact, every tackle, every block, like in the cold, it just increases the pain because it's, you just feel it more like if you've, if you've gotten hurt outside in cold weather or you've played football in cold weather, you can attest to that. And what is the element of football that establishes physicality and that gets you going downhill and initiates that contact where your offensive linemen are rocking off the line of scrimmage to borrow a turn from Ryan day.
That's the running game. And so the reason I think running the ball is a big emphasis in cold weather is because you get to establish that physicality and that toughness and that, Hey, we're going to hit you and it's going to hurt because it's 20 degrees outside and you're feeling every little Nick. So to me, less than you can't throw the ball.
It's more that the running game, just it imposes the will of a team in any game, really, but especially in the cold weather. And so for me, I think it's, I kind of see it balanced now between these two teams, because that clip of the Tennessee players on the sideline was funny. When you talk about it being 55 degree weather and then being cold and meeting their heaters on and whatever.
But they also did just play a game that got into the mid thirties and did just fine against Vanderbilt. It was a 36, 23 win for Tennessee and that game, it didn't seem to give them as much of an issue. And it's, it's not at least once during a Tennessee practice in Knoxville this week.
Now there's also been clips of them practicing inside the shorts on. So, you know, don't want to overanalyze Tennessee's practice schedule, I guess, but to me, the way they, can run the ball, stop the run, their defense, and just complete their completeness as a team. Ohio state though, has more acclimation to the cold.
The Michigan game was colder than Tennessee's game against Vanderbilt. Columbus, I think on the whole will have been colder than Knoxville was in the lead up to the game. And, you know, more Northern recruits for Ohio state, typically than Tennessee too.
Not that Ohio state doesn't recruit nationally now and get plenty of Southern talent as well, but this is, you know, they've got some Ohioans, they've got some Midwestern guys that are used to playing in these temperatures a little more. I think it kind of balances out. And so that's the reason I say, I don't think the cold is impacting my prediction very much.
I do think it will have an impact, but the impact will be a neutral one. Like it'll be kind of a similar stifling element for both sides. And it'll kind of even out just because I think what Tennessee strengths are and Ohio state's further experience in the cold.
[Dan Hope]
We've already talked about what the biggest concern is for Ohio state in this game. It's, it's clearly the offensive line. What do you view as, you know, the biggest thing that gives you confidence in Ohio state going into this game, the biggest advantage that they can use to propel them to a victory in this game?
[Andy Anders]
Three names, Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Booker, and Carnell Tate. Tennessee's corners are good. Their secondary is good.
Overall, this is a top 20 passing defense, but they haven't seen the likes of these receivers because they don't exist anywhere else. Like this is the best receiver core in the country still. And if Ohio state does stay true to its word, what Ryan day and chip Kelly have been saying since that Michigan loss, if they stay true to their word and learn from the mistakes made in that game plan and actually properly utilize those weapons, there's, I don't think there's a single secondary in the country that can really contain them that well.
Because the offensive guys inherently have a matchup advantage in the passing game. And the, those wide receivers are as good as you can get. They just, if you rely on Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Booker, and Carnell Tate properly, that's the matchup that I think gives me the most confidence in Ohio state going into this game.
Dan, where do you stand?
[Dan Hope]
Yeah. I mean, I obviously Ohio state has to have time to bro, you know, Will Howard has to deliver the ball accurately, but I think, you know, you certainly, you know, you, you like having those guys on your side. And I think Ohio state has a better, you know, set of weapons on the perimeter than, than Tennessee does.
So that's something that should be an advantage for the Buckeyes. I think, you know, for me, a lot of it just is how good this defense has been from the second half of the season. I mean, you know, the way the defense played against Michigan, Ohio state should have won that game.
So if Ohio state can just be competent on offense and the defense can continue to play the way it's been playing, Ohio state's going to have a chance to win this game. Ohio, you know, should be as incompetent on offense as it was against Michigan. Cause this Tennessee offense is better than Michigan's offense was.
So Ohio state's defense could play better in this game than it did against Michigan. And that could still mean allowing more points. But, you know, I look at this as a game where I think the winner is probably going to be somewhere in the mid twenties in terms of points.
And so I think if Ohio state can hold, you know, Tennessee to 20 points or less, I think it'll have a good chance to win this game. And I think I have confidence in Ohio state's defense's ability to do that based on the way it's been playing ever since that Oregon game. And so, you know, I think Ohio state's defense needs to be the best unit on the field between both teams.
I think if it can be that, then I think it can lead Ohio state to victory. Even if the Buckeyes have another up and down offensive day because of their offensive line, they have, they have to be better on offense than they were about against Michigan. There's that bar none about that.
But I think that, you know, Ohio state doesn't have to be perfect on offense. If it's defense continues to play the way it has been.
[Andy Anders]
I think it's about time to get into our predictions, Dan. I think me, I, again, I've said throughout this episode, I think it'll be a low scoring game. I think both defenses will be the driving force of this game.
And I just have a little more faith in the completeness of Ohio state's defense to your point. Then I do Tennessee's and I think Ohio state can make a few more plays with its wide receiver weapons. And then Tennessee can, though Dylan Sampson will have some say I have Ohio state 20, Tennessee 17.
Like I said, that's the under on points. And by a decent margin, you know, it's only 37 points total, but I see it being a low scoring tide affair that Ohio state finds a way to win with its weapons and with its defense.
[Dan Hope]
I'm going to go Ohio state 24, Tennessee 20, you know, same kind of prediction as you, but I think it's going to be a tight game. I think it's going to be a low scoring game. Now I say that in college football, playoff games tend to be on the higher scoring end of things.
So, you know, would it shock me if this turned into a more high scoring game? No, but I think when you factor in how good these defenses has been, you know, you know, the fact that, you know, Tennessee's offense has struggled to score on the road, that Ohio state has offensive line questions that it's going to be a cold weather game. All those things would lean toward this game being on the lower scoring end of a spectrum.
So I'm going to have Ohio state 24, Tennessee 20. I mean, I wouldn't be shocked if it goes the other way too, because I think Tennessee is a really good team. And I think that, you know, they're going to, they're going to challenge Ohio state in this game.
But, you know, I will say this about, you know, how state going into this game that, you know, I mean, I think, you know, even the most optimistic Ohio state fans don't seem too confident entering this game. Tennessee fans seem plenty confident. They can beat the Buckeyes yet.
You're still seeing, you know, that, that, that spreads not really moving. There's talk of a lot of public money coming in on the Buckeyes. And so it's kind of interesting to see that where, you know, I think there's a lot of hesitancy from the Ohio state fan base going into this game because of what happened against Michigan.
But I also know that a lot of times, these are the kinds of games where Ohio state plays its best when, when people are doubting them. I mean, we saw it against Indiana, but I don't even really think that many people were doubting them against Indiana, but they built it up in their heads that, you know, Ryan day and whoever else did a good job of like driving the point home that like, Hey, they, they doubt us. They, you know, they doubt us coming into this game and they went out there and played with an edge, played like they had a point to prove against the Hoosiers.
And they played their best football of the season. I think they need to play like that again on Saturday. And, you know, we'll see, can they bounce back from that Michigan loss and, and play that way?
Cause I think if they play that way, you know, I'll really like their chances of winning this game. You know, do they use the bullets and board material that's out there, people picking against them, you know you know, Andre Turrentine saying that you know, SEC stadiums are louder than Ohio stadium, you know, whatever, whatever it may be, you know, can, can they use that to fuel them to, to, to feel like they're doubted because while they shouldn't need any extra motivation, it would, you know, recent history would suggest this team plays its best when it feels doubted, when it's got some kind of extra chip on its shoulder, you know, when it's a game, but they're supposed to win like that Michigan game.
I think sometimes they play not to lose. They, they need to not play that way, not, not to lose in this game. They need to play to win in this game.
And I, and I think it certainly would help if they can get off to a hot start because you know, I think we've seen that, that, you know, against Michigan where it's like, they started slow, doubt started creeping in and then you know, that it just kind of built up over the course of a game from there. Now, and now this has not been an Ohio state team, especially in the second half of a season, but it's been a fast starter. They've, they've been pretty, even in that Indiana game, they were a slow starter.
you know, I, I anticipate that there's probably going to be adversity. Ohio state has to overcome to win this game and we'll see if Ohio state can do it. But, you know, I think they really need to be able to, to feed off the crowd.
If they can get a fast start and keep that energy going, that would certainly be to their advantage, but you know, they've got to play loose. They've, they've got to play confident. And, and that starts off a play calling that starts off a coaching.
They, they, they've got to be aggressive in this game. They've got to be creative in this game. You know, cause you know, realistically, I mean, you know, it's not something we need to get into again on this week's show really, but you know, this, this coaching staff's jobs may be on the line here.
I mean, not just Ryan day, but any, everyone on this staff, their jobs might be on the line on Saturday night. So they need to coach like it. They need to throw the kitchen sink out in this game and, and, and go for broke.
And you know, I think if they do that and play up to their ability, Ohio state should win this game. But I do think it's going to be a very interesting matchup.
[Andy Anders]
I agree wholeheartedly, but Ohio state also not the only team playing across college football, of course, 12 team college football playoff as Ohio state takes on Tennessee in the first round, you have other first round matchups between Clemson and Texas, Indiana, Notre Dame and SMU and Penn state. I think it's easy to say that Ohio state is probably the most vulnerable of those teams to lose its first round game, not only because the seating matchup was the closest, but I think Tennessee and Ohio state, the way they match up, it's going to be tougher for the Buckeyes than some of the other draws across college football. That said, when you talk about playoffs there in college football, there's always the chance for upsets.
And I think this first round could have some pretty interesting games for me. I think I look at Penn state SMU as an interesting one. When you talk about big game, James Franklin and those narratives, you're getting a playoff game at home against a pretty good SMU team led by kind of a rising star as a head coach right now.
And Rhett Lashley, who just got an extension there for me, I think that's probably, if I were to make an upset pick, that game might be the one I look at and say, I kind of, even just the Mustangs are a cool story and where they've come and integrating in and being such a good team in the ACC so quickly. Dan, who do you have an upset pick for the first round? Is there anyone that you've kind of got your eye on as a, as a sleeper team here?
[Dan Hope]
I'm going with all the favorites in round one. I would actually have Penn state is the least likely upset. In my opinion, I get where you're coming from on that because of big game, James and his struggle to win big games.
But I do question this SMU team. I mean, you're talking about a team that, you know, could be in for a culture shock with the weather it's projected to be, you know, just as cold and state college, maybe even some snow. I don't know how well this SMU team is built for those kinds of conditions.
And so I do like Penn state and that one, I think, you know, I guess if I was, if I had to pick like the most likely upset, I'd, I'd go with Tennessee over Ohio state realistically. But I think outside of that, you know, I'm still, I'm still a believer in this Indiana team, even though they didn't play well against Ohio state. I still think, you know, they're, they're capable of making some noise.
So I'm not going to pick Indiana to beat Notre Dame because Notre Dame has been playing really good football. But I think if I had to pick one, I would go with Indiana over Notre Dame.
[Andy Anders]
Moving through the first round, you know, it's kind of interesting how the playoff has been structured. We've talked about that before in terms of the quarter final matchups, you could get Ohio Oregon, get the winner of Ohio state, Tennessee, Arizona state, the winner of Texas, Clemson, Georgia, the winner of Notre Dame, Indiana and Boise state, the winner of Penn state SMU. And if Penn state does survive that SMU game, I mean, you get Ashton, G and T is really good, but you get to play a Boise state team in a bowl game.
If Texas is able to beat Clemson, Arizona state wasn't all that impressive because the big 12 wasn't all that impressive this year. It kind of sets up well. And we've talked about this before for the five and six seeds, as opposed to Oregon, who now has to play the winner of Tennessee and Ohio state and their quarter final game in the Rose bowl.
That being said, I think it'll be really interesting to see who does emerge to the semi finals and is, is able to get just that one step away from the college football national championship. For me, I think as my four semifinalist picks, all I said, I think I have my eye on SMU as an upset pick, potentially just with the big game, Dean's reputation, as you know, stated I'm still picking Penn state in that game. I would also pick Penn state to beat Boise state.
I have Boise state's a good squad. They gave Oregon a really good game earlier in the year. Obviously the guy who should have won the Heisman is there running back.
I, I'm not afraid to stamp my foot on that one. You're talking about a generational season from a running back. And I know Travis Hunter did a lot of things from Colorado.
It's besides the point I would pick Penn state in that game. And so I have Penn state is one of my semifinalists. I think Texas clear path against Arizona state should Ohio state get past Tennessee and I'm picking them.
So I think it will be Ohio state and Oregon in that quarter final. I would take the ducks in the rematch. I know Ohio state will, would be motivated in that game.
And the Rose bowl is, you know, an awesome environment, but they, I just don't like them because of the offensive line in that rematch. And because again, Oregon has weapons that can space out and challenge this defense, as we've seen in ways few other offenses can. I think Ohio state will be more prepared and we'll have a better defensive outing against Oregon air potential rematch.
But I just think you're not going to be able to completely keep that ducks offense contained. And it's going to be pretty hard to move the ball against that defense with the offensive line concerns that you have. So then Georgia will complete my semifinalist list here.
As good as Notre Dame has been playing or if Indiana gets that upset, I just think Georgia is still talent wise, the completeness of their roster above either of those teams. Dan, who do you have as your four semifinalist picks?
[Dan Hope]
I do think Travis Hunter deserved the Heisman trophy, but I think Ashton Jeanty is going to play him a CFP semifinals. That's where I think the big game, James is going to come back to bite Penn state. I've got Boise state beating Penn state in the Fiesta bowl.
I, I do agree with you on Texas. I think that if they beat Clemson, I also think they'll beat Arizona state. I've got Notre Dame beating Georgia because I just don't know what to make of Georgia right now without Carson back.
And I think the way Notre Dame's been playing, I think that's another one of those kind of like rock fight, defensive battle kind of games. And I think that kind of game could play into Notre Dame's favor. And so I'm going with Notre Dame, Boise state, Texas, and then I do have Oregon going to the semifinals.
You know, I, I reserved the right to, you know, change my mind next week if Ohio state beats Tennessee. And then we'll be breaking down that Ohio state Oregon game next week. Of course, if it gets to that point, but you know, I, I had said going into the year, I thought Ohio state would, you know, lose to Oregon on the road and then win that rematch into big 10 championship game.
Obviously it didn't happen in Indianapolis. It could happen in the Rose bowl, but that was before Josh Simmons and Seth McLaughlin went down. And that's really what it comes down to for me on why I would go back on picking Ohio state to win bat rematches.
I just think, I think Oregon is the most complete team in the field. And I, and I, you know, I, one of the big reasons why I think this format does need to change in terms of just seating the teams away. They're ranked rather than giving the, the automatic buys to conference champions is I don't like, I don't really like the fact that Ohio state and Oregon could meet in, in, in the quarter finals.
I I'd love to, I love to see them play a rematch, but if, if you put Ohio state on the other side of a bracket, I would have, I would have Oregon and Ohio state meeting of a national championship, but I, I think Oregon is the best team. And so I can't pick Ohio state. Right.
And again, they got to beat Tennessee first. That's going to be challenging enough, but as we make our picks for the whole college football playoff, I got to go for Oregon on that one.
[Andy Anders]
Yeah. Same. And then you move on from there and it's the national championship game.
And the, and the champion for me, I still, I just think Oregon's the best, most complete team in the country right now. And I might, again, if Ohio state still had Josh Simmons and Seth McLaughlin, I might be saying that about Ohio state. And if they still had those two, they probably would have beat Michigan too.
So we would have probably seen the big 10 championship game between those two. But for me, I think Oregon's the most complete team. Obviously I have them playing Texas.
So I have a beating Texas and we've seen Texas have issues, whether it's getting, allowing pressure on Quinn Ewers in, in, in key games, like against Georgia, whether that's, you know, some inconsistencies on the offensive line or defensively wherever Texas has had, they, they, they haven't been the dominant team. I think a lot of us expected them to be coming into the year. And so I have Oregon beating Texas because I think they're more complete as a team.
And then ultimately winning the national championship over Georgia, who kind of gets the road cleared a little bit by just, I mean, it's a weaker, you look at the potential matchups for Georgia in that semifinal. I mean, Boise state's the highest seated team they could play Penn state. Like again, questions, Carson Beck injury noted.
He wasn't playing. He wasn't having his best season at quarterback before that injury either. I think Georgia's still winning a lot of games with their defense.
And I think they can still do that. Whoever they get in the semifinals. And so I have Oregon over Georgia in the national championship.
So I guess some chalk there because it's one versus two and then the one seat takes the crown.
[Dan Hope]
I'm going Oregon over Notre Dame and the national championship. And again, I, you know, do I think Notre Dame is one of the two best teams? Not necessarily.
I just think they have a favorable draw, but based on the fact that, you know, Georgia is without Carson back. And then I think, you know, I, I, I don't see any team from that, you know, lower right quadrant of Boise state Penn state SMU making a run all the way to the national championship game. So I think regardless, you know, Notre Dame or Georgia coming out of that top right quadrant, I would pick them to go to the national championship game.
But I, I think the quarterfinal and semifinal games might be tougher games for Oregon than the national championship game. And so I, I I've, I've got Oregon winning at all. You know, it is, it is the chalk pick, but you know, it just feels like right now to me, it just feels like their year.
Like they've been the best team all year. They just seem to have a lot of things rolling for them right now. And you know, they're not a behemoth kind of team, but I think in a year where a lot of the top teams have one flaw or another, I think Oregon is the least flawed team.
And so I am, we, I am in agreement with you picking the ducks to win it all. Well, that'll do it for this week's episode of real pod Wednesdays, lots of excitement to come this weekend as the college football playoff officially kicks off Friday night with Indiana and Notre Dame. Then on Saturday, Penn state plays SMU at noon, Texas plays Clemson at four.
And then the game that we will of course be watching very closely, Ohio state versus Tennessee in the shoe 8. PM on ABC and ESPN Saturday night. We will be there.
Lots of coverage to come on 11 warriors.com and win or lose. We're going to have plenty to talk about next week. And so we will catch you next week on real pod Wednesdays.
Enjoy the college football playoff. Everyone.