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- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net
- U of IL ACES Leadership Panel
- Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net
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- U of IL ACES Leadership Panel
- Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net
Creators and Guests
What is Closing Market Report?
Celebrating 40 Years | 10,000 Episodes
Established 1985
The Closing Market Report airs weekdays at 2:06pm central on WILL AM580, Urbana. University of Illinois Extension Farm Broadcaster Todd Gleason hosts the program. Each day he asks commodity analysts about the trade in Chicago, delves deep into the global growing regions weather, and talks with ag economists, entomologists, agronomists, and others involved in agriculture at the farm and industry level.
website: willag.org
twitter: @commodityweek
From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report. It is the September 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett of agmarket.net.
Todd Gleason:He's in Windsor, Illinois. We'll return to last week's Farm Progress Show and hear an excerpt from a panel discussion I had with the ACES leadership, actually, the entire University of Illinois leadership or much of it as it relates to the college bases that is. And then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast too. We'll do that with Mike Tenora, teased storm weather on this Thursday edition of the closing market report from Illinois public media.
announce:Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason:December corn for the day settled at $4.19 and 3 quarters, up a penny and 3 quarters. The March at $4.37 and a half, a penny and a half higher, and May futures at $4.47 and a half, up 1 and a half cents. November beans, $10.33, a penny and a half higher. January 10 fifty one and a half, also up a penny and a half for the day, and the March contract at $10.67, a penny and a quarter higher. Bean mill futures up $2.50.
Todd Gleason:The bean oil 7¢ higher. Weed futures in the soft red December at $5.19 and a half down 2 and a half cents. The hard red in the December at $5.00 6 and a quarter finished 4¢ lower on the afternoon. Live cattle futures in Chicago at $2.36 95, a dollar 37 and a half lower. Feeders off $2.55, and lean hogs up a buck 20.
Todd Gleason:Matt Bennett from agmarket.net now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hi, Matt. Thanks much for being with us. Interesting day in the markets, down for most of the day, not by much, but it appears as we go into the settlements while you and I are talking that everything might settle a little higher. That, seems like a good sign.
Matt Bennett:Yeah. I mean, there's no doubt. You look, for instance, at the bean market, and, no beans, haven't settled yet, but look like we're about 12¢ off the low, you know, as we move into a settlement type price. Whereas corn, you're looking about 6¢ off the low. So no doubt there was a fair amount of pressure there.
Matt Bennett:Overnight wasn't too bad, but then as we opened the day session, no question that pressure was definitely evident. And coming here as the day goes on, corn just kinda worked its way higher. You know? And then the bean market joined the party right at the very end. So, you know, both of them look like they're gonna settle a little higher on the day, which is is a really good sign.
Matt Bennett:I I think there's a lot of different things going on. Demand's really strong. On the other side of that, of course, trade, there's a lot of questions there people are frustrated with. But, you know, ultimately, you know, the weather has got to factor in somewhat. It's just not been a great finish for a lot of us.
Todd Gleason:Yeah. So we talked to Drew earlier in the week, and he still was of a mind, at least yesterday when I talked to him, that freeze frost could be a problem, I think, particularly on Sunday night in parts of the Northwestern Corn, but we'll have to see whether that, Arctic air, spills down that far and gets things cool enough. That could pop the market, I suppose, on Monday. But, really, what we have to think about now is what USDA will come out with next week, and those numbers will be as of September 1. They'll include some objective yields, another farmer survey too.
Todd Gleason:What do you think they'll show?
Matt Bennett:It's a tough it's a tough guess, to be honest, Todd. Last year, you look back at last year, and, clearly, you had a West, Western Corn Belt dry finish type situation. And what that did was clearly rob some bushels. We already knew that they were dry out west, but the USDA actually went up for September yield after getting out in the field. And so, clearly, the Eastern Corn Belt being super dry in August this year, doesn't necessarily mean that we're gonna go down substantially.
Matt Bennett:Now, clearly, you've got a totally different, viewpoint from USD in August and Pro Farmer in August, for instance. They're gonna get in the field this month. My personal opinion is if you take into account all the disease issues that we've got, you know, and then obviously the drier bias finish, you'd you would think that the yields would come down some. Do the USDA do they wanna take big chunks out of this? Typically, that's not their protocol.
Matt Bennett:That's not really how they handle things in the past. But, I guess from my vantage point, you've gotta think it's gonna come down at least a bush el or two on corn. I don't see anything a whole lot more than that. And then on soybeans, you'd think that would ease a little bit, maybe a bushel, maybe a little bit less. But regardless, I've gotta think both these come in a little bit lower.
Todd Gleason:During last week's commodity week conversation at the Farm Progress Show, and thank you for being there, Arlen Suderman mentioned that he was a little concerned that the feed residual number did not and the export number both, did not balance outright because USDA didn't account for beef cattle not coming across the border from Mexico because of the scrumworm issues, and increased, demand going that way, but didn't take it off going, domestically. Are you concerned at all that those feed and residual numbers are too high?
Matt Bennett:I think feed and residual could certainly be too high. It would it would tell you that if these cattle don't come north out of Mexico, that actually exports could continue to be very strong. It's just that feed and residual is probably farther off than what exports might be low. Now there's no doubt that here over the last week or two, you've seen more competitiveness out of South America, but US corn still has been flying off the shelves, so to speak. So I think those exports are gonna be good.
Matt Bennett:It's just problematic to assume that we're gonna have as much feed usage as what they've projected if we're not getting those 30,000 head of cattle moving north every week. And so bottom line, you could probably take some air out of the sales, Todd. I mean, I've said this for a while now. Yes. The yield might come down, but you've gotta assume they're gonna drop demand as well.
Matt Bennett:So it's not gonna be one of these deals where you take yield down two bushel, you know, and that's gonna be, what, know, a 180,000,000 bushel drop to carry out. That's not gonna be the case. They'll drop some demand as well. It would be my personal opinion.
Todd Gleason:On biofuels, and I know this has a relationship to the SREs and how they're reallocated if they're reallocated, the small refinery exemptions. But do you suppose that soybeans will continue to be supported and maybe push higher over time into '26 because of biodiesel and renewable diesel? They're all sort of tied in together into the RFS and the SREs, and it's hard to separate them out from 45 c. Just a lot of jargon. But, but we know that capacity isn't isn't been hasn't been built up yet.
Todd Gleason:Will it push the market?
Matt Bennett:It's a tough call. I mean, here's the thing with beans, Todd. I mean, yeah, domestically, we have a very tight situation. I don't think that the balance sheet's gonna get any looser, so to speak. I mean, yeah, you could lose a few exports.
Matt Bennett:No doubt about it. But we know that crush is gonna remain strong. Crush margins have been good. There's going to be a build out over the course of the next two or three years. It's not going to happen right away.
Matt Bennett:The problem, of course, isn't necessarily a domestic situation. It's more the world situation. So in the world, we're actually producing more beans than what we're using. And so clearly, it's kinda ballooning your world world balance sheet somewhat. So I'd say it's very complicated.
Matt Bennett:We might get in a situation where, domestically, we're using enough to keep our prices fairly strong and keep basis levels strong if there's meat on the bone, so to speak, and then money to be made with crush margins. But the overall trajectory of the bean market might not look that great if we continue to see Brazil come with more acres every year. So I'd say that you can't just balance a bullish enthusiasm on what's going on with renewable diesel. And I hate to say it that way. I'm just afraid that you're going to have a little bit of cold water on the fire, so to speak, when you're looking at world numbers.
Todd Gleason:K. Thank you much. I appreciate it, Matt.
Matt Bennett:Absolutely. Thanks for having me.
Todd Gleason:Matt Bennett is with agmarket.net. On On the first day of the Farm Progress Show last week, the leadership of the College of ACES, Agricultural Consumer and Environmental Sciences, joined me on stage including the dean of the college, Herman Bolero, the brand new director of extension, his name is Matthew Van, along with the new chancellor at the University of Illinois, Charles Isbell, and Nikki Budzinski, a member of the house agriculture committee in Washington DC, and her district includes the University of Illinois. I pulled an excerpt of that conversation. We'll start with the new director of extension. His name again is Matthew Van.
Matthew Vann:When we look at our urban and our rural areas, there's a lot of diversity and expertise. I And think that is gonna be our biggest strength when we look outward. And trying to find ways to solve the grand challenges of our day. But it's gonna come down to the people and really understanding what our people need. And I'm really humbled to have an opportunity to be a part of those conversations.
Todd Gleason:Okay. So I'm gonna turn our attention to Nikki Budzinski because one of the ways that this works is you help to fund what happens in extension and on campus. And it's a tough job. It's a tough job in any era. Can you tell me about the things you've been working through?
Budzinski:Yeah. Well, I'm really proud to serve on the house agriculture committee. This is my third year in congress. Each of those years, I've served on the committee. We've continued to be working toward getting a farm bill done.
Budzinski:And the farm bill is a really important part of supporting the college bases, the University of Illinois, and agriculture more broadly. Specifically we have an opportunity to invest in agricultural research. What you're seeing in the tent today from AI farms to FFA is doing, what four H is doing, all of this great work that's happening within the college of ACEs, it's really important that we fund agricultural research to make sure that these programs are fully funded at our universities. And specifically the University of Illinois, which I'm really proud to represent. Agricultural research, I have a bill out there that would actually increase agricultural research investment by 10% over each year over the next ten years.
Budzinski:I think that is something that if we're gonna be competitive with China, we're gonna be competitive with Brazil, we have to continue to invest and plus up that investment to make sure we're investing in the University of Illinois.
Todd Gleason:And then, of course, there's the one big beautiful bill act and the skinny farm bill, which is coming up, which will deal with many things. How how do you balance all of those out to create a research portfolio that really works?
Budzinski:Yeah. Well, research really wasn't addressed. In the big bill that passed, it broke apart what we refer to as the Farm Bill Coalition. Typically a farm bill is negotiated to include our nutrition provisions, agriculture research crop insurance, the farm safety net, all of that is bundled together into one negotiation process that gets a five year farm bill done. What happened with the big bill is that ended up being broken apart.
Budzinski:So there are things in reference prices that were adjusted in the big bill. There were some other components that I think some of our farmers did welcome, but it didn't address everything that we need to address in the Farm Bill. That's what you're referring to as the skinny Farm Bill. The skinny Farm Bill is what was left on on the on the floor that didn't get addressed in the Big Bill and needs to in a in a Farm Bill. So agricultural research is one of those projects or one of those initiatives that I'm hoping we'll see get in there.
Todd Gleason:Well, thank you for serving on the house ag committee. We really appreciate that. Dean Ramon Bolero is next to representative Budzinski. Thank you, Dean. So you've traveled with for a little bit with everybody today.
Todd Gleason:I wanna hear what your vision is of the College of ACEs going forward, and how these three work through that process to help you make it happen.
Germán Bollero:Yeah. So first of all, I wanna say I'm also from the South.
Todd Gleason:So You you do have a southern accent.
Germán Bollero:You have a deep southern accent. But anyway, so but first of all, wanna thank chancellor Isbell and Nikki and Matthew for being here. Definitely, the support that Nikki has provided in terms of research has been wonderful to that. I think part of going back to her points, I think it's important that here at Illinois, we are stewards of those funds that come for research. So we can account for a lot of the things that we do.
Germán Bollero:Part of that is in terms of the vision is, you know, what you see right there in terms of AI farms and the center for digital agriculture. So the integration of technology to serve people in Illinois at all levels, you know, taking advantage of being in the one of the best computer science department in the country in Illinois and integrated with everything that we do in agriculture is is is really important. And then, you know, we it's not only the research, we're integrating with the degrees that we're offering in terms of computer science plus crop sciences degree, computer sciences plus animal sciences degree. You see pics of different colors there. That's part of AI Farm.
Germán Bollero:And I think it's integrating food agriculture into a state and creating the workforce in to stay in the state, attracting, the industry that will come to the state because of all these technological advances that we provide. So, I think in terms of attracting students, we got a record number of students this week, in the college. We're gonna be a college of over 3,000 undergrads, and we continue to attract the best and brightest that never thought of careers in agriculture to come to agriculture because it's a great domain that have great opportunities, great industry, a great job for the state of Illinois.
Todd Gleason:Wait a second. 3,000 undergrads in the undergrads. Yep. Wow. Man, the last time I heard a number, it was 1,100 lower than that.
Todd Gleason:It was a few but that was not more than five or six years ago.
Germán Bollero:We had tremendous team and great departments in the college and great careers. So we continue to attract students.
Todd Gleason:I'll give the dean and his recruitment efforts just a big, huge hand. Thank you much. Okay. So we're gonna wrap up with a a vision from your side and how you see all this working. Again, Matthew Van, the new director of extension here at the University of Illinois.
Todd Gleason:Your vision going forward.
Matthew Vann:So what we want to do ultimately is is find a way to embed extension in every conversation that takes place across the university, across the college, and most importantly outside of Champaign Urbana. You know, I think we've got a great resource when you look at all of our county directors and you look at our extension educators, we want to have a foot in all the things that the dean and the chancellor are going to talk about to know that extension's got a face, it's got a footprint and it's going to be everywhere that we have citizens and we have stakeholders. So the vision is just to be present. We're going to show up again, listen, learn, engage. And that's going to be really the focus of what we're going to do for the next few months and then springboard into some bigger things, as we start to get a little bit further into this.
Todd Gleason:Listen, learn, engage. I'll write that down so I remember that. Charles Isbell, chancellor of the university, a final word from you as it relates to vision, please.
Charles Isbell:It's very simple. It's everything that you just heard today. 3,000 students, we will probably have 60,000 students for the first time ever in the history of And U of why is that? Because we want to reach more people. We wanna bring them along.
Charles Isbell:I have fallen in love with Extension over the last couple of years. I've fallen in love with the mission, the idea that we can touch the world at scale. That's what we're about. Listening, engaging, touching, making the world a better place at scale. And it's because of things like this that make that happen.
Todd Gleason:Give them all a nice round of applause. Thank you very much to each of you. Have a great day here at the Farm Progress Show.
Matthew Vann:Thank you, Todd.
Todd Gleason:You're listening to the closing market report on this Thursday afternoon. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleeson. Don't forget, we'll record our commodity week program today posted to our website this evening by about 06:00. Many of these radio stations will carry it over the weekend, and you can hear the whole of the program during this hour tomorrow. On our home station, our guests this week include John Zanker from Risk management commodities, Logan Kimmel of Roach Ag, and Mike Zuzla of globalcomresearch.com.
Todd Gleason:The closing market report is a production of Illinois Public Media. It's public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.0rg. Let's check-in on the global growing regions and the climate of each of them. Mike Tenora is now here from t storm weather. He's a meteorologist and an agricultural economist.
Todd Gleason:Hey, Mike. Thanks much for being with us. Also, CEO and president of t storm weather. That's tstorm.net online. We, appreciate you taking some time with me.
Todd Gleason:I'm gonna get started. We have a lot to cover, I think, in both North And South America, but begin in North America for me. Tell me about current conditions.
Mike Tannura:Well, it's pretty dry. We just went through one of the drier August on record in the seven state Corn Belt. It was the driest since 2020 and around a half of an inch wetter than in 2013. So that's kind of your background for where we are today. As we move forward, there's very little rain in the forecast.
Mike Tannura:We did see some showers yesterday. We'll see some more today and tomorrow. But these are all very light and not the kind of events that lead to major soil moisture improvements. So we're basically going to stay pretty dry right into the middle of the month. Temperatures today are very cool and they're going to stay very cool through Sunday.
Mike Tannura:We did see a tiny bit of frost in far northern areas this morning, but temperatures only dipped to around 34 to 36 degrees in very small parts of North Dakota, and that's above the minimum threshold of a killing event. So the growing season is still underway. It'll be a little bit warmer there tomorrow morning and on Saturday morning, but the one risk we still have to get through is Sunday morning. Sunday will be a little bit different than it has been, and that the same air mass will be in place, but winds will be a lot lighter. And light winds with a cool air mass is the recipe for cold temperatures.
Mike Tannura:Now is it going to get super cold and produce a killing event? Probably not. We think minimum temperatures will generally stay right around 33 degrees or warmer, and you need to get down to 28 degrees to have a killing freeze. That's kind of your measuring stick for a major problem. Is that going to happen?
Mike Tannura:That's very unlikely. The air mass just isn't quite that cold. Ground temperatures are still pretty warm. And just historically is outside of the realm of normal weather to see that type of temperature deep into the Corn Belt at this time of the year. So we think we'll get through that.
Mike Tannura:And once we do get beyond Sunday, it'll be way warmer. A major warm up is going to take place next week and we'll see high temperatures back into the 70s and 80s starting in about five days and that should then continue right into mid September.
Todd Gleason:And that's across the whole of the Corn Belt?
Mike Tannura:It certainly will be, but it'll be warmest to the West of the Mississippi River. And as you move to the east, it'll still be nice out, but it might not be in the mid-80s, it might just be, say, 75 to 80 degrees, in parts of Indiana and Ohio.
Todd Gleason:Now turn your attention to South America. Start in Argentina for me. They are beginning their growing season. Tell me about it.
Mike Tannura:It's been an interesting setup because they had a major rain event two weeks ago and then they had another major rain event just a few days ago and that has the whole country saturated. They just had a lot of rain for the month of August. They only normally would receive around one and a half inches for the entire month, but some areas have seen more than six inches. And this is not just one or two locations, this is over a pretty big chunk of real estate. Conditions are fully saturated in Argentina.
Mike Tannura:Now, the only crop that is going to be turning sensitive anytime soon is wheat. The crop starts to turn sensitive now and really more so in October. And again, it's just very wet. So whether or not that is a good or bad thing remains to be seen. They don't really start planting corn and soybeans until October and November, so plenty of time to dry out.
Mike Tannura:You know, sunflower planting is taking place now. That'll probably be a little bit sluggish for a while. But overall, not a real clear story except just to note that this unusual weather event has happened with these two big rains over the last couple of weeks. We'll see if that's a sign of bigger things to come, but as we move forward, there's very little rain in the forecast for them so they'll start to dry out through mid month.
Todd Gleason:As you mentioned, still very late winter, very early spring in Argentina. However, in parts of Brazil, a lot of Brazil in fact, much closer to the Equator, they have the go ahead, to start planting soybeans, but they'll need rainfall to get that to start. Is the dry season ending yet?
Mike Tannura:Well, the dry season doesn't end until sometime between September 20 and October 10 in the key state of Mato Grosso. And so that's really the time of year where you can start thinking more about rain. It's still a little early now. There are some hints of rain coming up in ten to twenty days, especially in the Northwest part of the state. That's typically where you would see some of these rains start up first.
Mike Tannura:But the point here is that it is going to rain. It's just a matter of when. Will it start on September 20 or will it start on October 10? Either way, is going to rain and their yields are not very much they're not affected by this really at all because if it gets planted later, they'll just harvest it later. If it gets planted early, they just harvest it early.
Mike Tannura:But the rains are always pretty regular once things get going. So we're not super concerned about exactly when it takes place. It just really I think depends more on there's more of a factor for when will those soybeans come online for exports or processing, whatever you want to do with them. Just a timing issue more than anything there.
Todd Gleason:Hey, thanks much. We'll talk with you again next week.
Mike Tannura:Yeah, that sounds great, Todd.
Todd Gleason:Mike Tenure is with t storm weather at tstorm.net online. You've been listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media on this Thursday. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Our programming content comes to you from willag.org, willag.0rg. The theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer, Tim Gleason.
Todd Gleason:Doctor.