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FALL FUND DRIVE
T H A N K Y O U
217-244-9455 or willgive.org
- Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing
- Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc.
★ Support this podcast ★
T H A N K Y O U
217-244-9455 or willgive.org
- Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing
- Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc.
Creators and Guests
What is Closing Market Report?
Celebrating 40 Years | 10,000 Episodes
Established 1985
The Closing Market Report airs weekdays at 2:06pm central on WILL AM580, Urbana. University of Illinois Extension Farm Broadcaster Todd Gleason hosts the program. Each day he asks commodity analysts about the trade in Chicago, delves deep into the global growing regions weather, and talks with ag economists, entomologists, agronomists, and others involved in agriculture at the farm and industry level.
website: willag.org
twitter: @commodityweek
From the Land of Grant University, Interpana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market reported as the September 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. We're in the midst of our fall fun drive. Dial this number, (217) 244-9455, or go to willgive.0rg.
Todd Gleason:That second way is really fast and simple. That's willgive.0rg. And make your pledge of financial support for the agricultural programming that comes to you from the University of Illinois and Illinois Public Media. It's public radio for the farming world. Coming up during this half hour, we'll talk with Greg Johnson about the marketplace.
Todd Gleason:He's a TGM. That's Total Grain Marketing. And we'll hear from Drew Lerner at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. But more importantly, I'll continue to ask you along the way to make that gift, the donation, a fund to help support agricultural programming that comes to you from the U of I. Again, (217) 244-9455.
Todd Gleason:Willgive.0rg. Thank you in advance for making your donation today. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. December corn for the day at $4.17 down two and three quarters. March at $4.34 and a half.
Todd Gleason:Three lower in the May down two and three quarters at $4.45. November beans ten twenty five at a quarter six lower. January at 10.443 quarters down five and three quarters to March down a nickel at 10.61. For the soybeans, bean meal futures 4.2 lower. The bean oil up 54¢.
Todd Gleason:Wheat futures in the soft red December down five and a quarter at 5.1 The hard red December at 5.07 down three and a quarter cents. Live cattle futures in Chicago finished at $231.15.97 and a half cents higher. Feeders up 47 and a half cents and lean hogs 42 and a half cents higher for the day. Greg Johnson from tgmtotalgrainmarketing.com now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hello, Greg.
Todd Gleason:How are you today?
Greg Johnson:Doing well, Todd. Getting ready for harvest to start ramping up. We've got a few people that have started, but for the majority of people, it's gonna be either later this week or next week, but we're getting closer every day.
Todd Gleason:What are they telling you about yields early on and what they were expecting and how they compare?
Greg Johnson:Well, here in East Central Illinois, Champaign County, we've been on the short end of the stick when it's come to rainfall over the last ninety days, and that's being reflected in the yields. For the soybeans that have come off, the early maturity beans are okay in the 70s, but the same farmers that are harvesting their early beans don't think those will be their best beans of the year. So they're expecting smaller yields when they get into the fuller season beans. We'll have to wait and see. It's so hard to estimate bean yield, but that seems to be the perception with the lack of rain in August and so far in September.
Greg Johnson:The earlier beans may very well be the better yielding beans when it's all said and done. And as far as corn's concerned, we really haven't gotten into too much corn yet. Even though the fields are starting to look like they're ready to go, a lot of that corn is still 25% moisture or higher. 25 to 30 seems be catching a lot of it. There are some fields that got planted early with some earlier season varieties that have dried down to closer to 20, but the majority of the corn is still 25 plus.
Greg Johnson:So we're probably still a week to ten days away from seeing a lot of corn. But the beans these beans have really turned fast, and I really think, towards the end of this week and on into next week, we will see a a pretty good wave of beans come in.
Todd Gleason:Alright. As those beans come in, are you hearing about them coming in in other places around the nation, and is that beginning to be reflected in basis at all?
Greg Johnson:With the the on the one hand, we the the trade is estimating the USDA Friday will lower the bean yield by a half a bushel. I'm not sure they will. It's so hard to estimate bean yields. I I wouldn't be surprised if the government just leaves the bean yield alone this month. And then once we get a little bit more harvest results under our belt, then they could change that in the October report.
Greg Johnson:If you just look at the crop ratings nationwide, we've only lost four points of good to excellent from a month ago on soybeans and four points nationwide on corn. So that's kind of typical. So that would not lead to thinking that, we're gonna see a big drop in in the in the in the yields. Now Illinois is completely different. We've lost 16 points out of the good to excellent category from a month ago on corn, and we've lost nine points on the beans.
Greg Johnson:So I guess Illinois, basically from Champaign County on south, and east, it's just been a lot drier. But, to the north you get to McLean County and then the Northern third of Illinois and the western part of the state where they've had plenty of rain, they're probably looking at those crop yields that have been going on, crop tours that have been going on, are reflecting almost as good, if not better yields than what they had a year ago. So it just depends on who got the rain and who didn't, but I think in our area here in Champaign County, we're looking at lower yields for both corn and soybeans.
Todd Gleason:Looking out at usage prospects, China's still not in the marketplace. I suppose everybody's thinking that's not happening at least till November at this point.
Greg Johnson:They've already bought all their needs for September and October. They bought 15% of their needs for November. So there's still a window for November and December, but the last I heard, trade talks haven't even been scheduled to resume. They extended them for ninety days, which gets them into November. I would guess as we get closer to that, maybe we'll start hearing some talk about, discussions starting back up again.
Greg Johnson:But, China doesn't seem to be in any hurry to to, arrange talks to to, you know, buy beans, and, you know, we're trying to get the best deal we can. They're trying to get the best deal they can. And, with two superpowers, it may take until the very last minute, or we may even see another extension before we finally get something worked out there. So, yeah, the the demand side of the soybean equation is it just hasn't been there to support the market. So even though the yield is probably coming down because of this dry weather, until we actually see some demand pick up, I think the trade kinda feels like we can get by with a little bit less at this point.
Todd Gleason:Let's switch topics to logistics. We can start with rail. I think that's probably doing okay. And then turn your attention to what the, river system looks like.
Greg Johnson:Yeah. The, rail system for corn is very good. Exports continue to be great on a weekly basis. There is a market for export corn, so we anticipate a lot of corn will move in the fall, only here in Central Illinois, but basically across the entire Midwest. That's the good news.
Greg Johnson:We've seen extremely strong demand for both old crop and new crop corn. The bad news is we have not seen that in the soybean market. There just is no export market going on right now for soybeans to speak of, I. E. China.
Greg Johnson:And so normally we move a lot of beans in the fall and store the corn. This year we're gonna have to store most of the beans, and that's gonna take away from some of that space that was allocated to corn normally. So even though we are exporting corn, we're storing beans to take up that space. So I think space could still be tight in a lot of areas here in the Midwest. And Champaign County, like I say, you know, you shave a few bushels off the bean yield, you shave fifteen, fifteen, 20 bushels off of the corn yield, that will create a little bit more space, but like I say, without moving the beans, space could still be tight this fall.
Todd Gleason:And the river system is low at this point. Is that going to cause things to back up or because we're not actually using it to export soybeans, will it not make a difference? And I wonder what the backhaul looks like. I mean, the river works both ways, and so does it mean freight rates don't go up substantially if the river really isn't moving that many soybeans?
Greg Johnson:You would think that would be part of the equation, but I think the bigger part of the equation is, people will want to move corn because we're not able to move beans. So I think there'll be demand for those barges. And with the river system as low as it is, I still think the rates probably will be a little bit higher than than normal. Although what is normal? Because we've had low river levels each of the last three or four falls.
Greg Johnson:So, this is kinda becoming the new normal, unfortunately. So I think we'll see higher rates just because of the low water levels and the fact that we still do need to move product up the river and move corn down the river.
Todd Gleason:K. Thank you much. I appreciate it.
Greg Johnson:Thank you, Todd.
Todd Gleason:That's Greg Johnson. He is with TGM, totalgrainmarketing.com, joins us each and every Wednesday here on the closing market report. He's one of more than 18 regular voices that you'll hear on the air at Illinois Public Media each and every week talking about the marketplace, including the brokers and the meteorologists. We'll talk with Drew Lerner speaking to meteorologists in just a moment. But right now, I'd like you to take some time and think about what this program really means to you day in and day out.
Todd Gleason:Maybe you listen every day. Maybe you listen to us once a week or a couple of times a week or you listen to commodity week or you listen to us as a podcast, and do that regularly. However you listen to us and how often you listen to us, what does it mean to you and your marketing? My guess is that you listen for a reason, and I'm really hopeful that in this time, particularly as we're facing a $1,500,000 shortfall in this fiscal year, the one we already started and a rescission came from Washington DC. We need to make some of that up, and I'd like you to help out.
Todd Gleason:I really would. Usually, I ask you for about a $120 for the year. I'm gonna double that ask and ask for $2.40 this time. And if you can do better than that, that would be fantastic. If you could make it $3.20, that would be great.
Todd Gleason:Something better, something higher would be really good too. If you and I know are thinking, hey, wait a second. I'm looking at another losing year. Maybe less is fine. If you've never given before, that's really when I'm tempting you here.
Todd Gleason:I'd I'd like you to join us at whatever amount. In fact, whatever amount you can make a gift to willag.org, to willgive.org, that's where you'd be heading to make that gift, I would appreciate it. You can always call (217) 244-9455. It's quick. It's simple.
Todd Gleason:It's easy to do. You can call. You can go online again to willgive.org, or that number is 244-9455 and make that pledge, but don't wait. Don't wait until later in the week and make me nervous about it. We're just doing this for four days.
Todd Gleason:We're making fall fund drive fairly short. We have a goal of a $100,000, and I sure would like the ag audience to step up and make this goal something that is useful for the radio station. We've got a lot of issues that we're working with here as it's related to the rescission, and we kinda need your help. I wanna thank you. I really do thank you for all you do for the nation.
Todd Gleason:Honestly, without you, the nation would be in big trouble. We know that. We need the food and the feeding programs. We need the programs that work with you, and I am hopeful that the program we deliver to you from Illinois Public Media is worthwhile too. If it is, dial in right now, (217) 244-9455, or go to willgive.org and make that donation today.
Todd Gleason:And thank you so very much for taking your time to go online or to make the phone call. It won't take much, but it is really important. And thanks for the gift too. Let's check the weather forecast now with Drew Lerner. He's at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City.
Todd Gleason:Hello, Drew. Thank you for being with us again on a Wednesday.
Drew Lerner:Yeah. It's another very nice day. On this side of the fence over here, we're seeing a big return of humidity after the cool off this past weekend, and it doesn't feel all that great anymore.
Todd Gleason:Wait. Are you gonna get rainfall with that humidity there or not?
Drew Lerner:We actually had a little shower here yesterday. It really wasn't a shower. It lasted for about two hours or so. A nice little drink of water and it was welcome. But that's part of the reason why it's so humid here now is because we're getting the atmosphere to warm up a little bit and we're feeding back that moisture into the air.
Drew Lerner:So, yeah, we're going to see higher humidity out this way in the Western Corn Belt over the next several days while the milder conditions in the Eastern Midwest will probably stay locked in for a while. We've got a lot of surface high pressure systems coming and going that'll continue to keep the dry in place over that way.
Todd Gleason:Wow. The Western Corn Belt has just done extraordinarily well all this season long. However, where I am, we're kind of at the target area in East Central Illinois for some really dry conditions, and I don't think you're going to tell me that humidity and or any rainfall is coming my way.
Drew Lerner:Yeah, you got that right. The driest area is from the northern two thirds of the Delta straight up into Central Illinois and does include parts of Missouri. And it has recently expanded into Kentucky and even portions of Indiana and Ohio are seeing rather limited soil moisture to say the least. It's not as critically dry in those places as it is in that Delta and Central To Southern Illinois and Missouri area. The Western Tennessee River Basin is also critically dry and there's basically no top or sub soil moisture in these areas.
Drew Lerner:So late season crops are really taking it on the chin and we are locked into a pattern here that will not change for at least ten days and probably two weeks. And to be honest with you, unless we get a tropical system to come around, we're not going to even get any relief on into the third week of the outlook unless the jet stream comes southward. Now, if we can get some nice seasonal cooling to take place like we saw for a little while last weekend, we could move that jet stream far enough to the south that we could produce a little bit of rain across parts of at least the Lower Midwest. I have my doubts about the Delta, but anyway, that's, those are the only two options here. We either bring a tropical system in from the South or we bring a cool air mass down from the North.
Drew Lerner:Well, I don't see either occurring right now in the next ten days. Maybe as we get into the latter part of that second week, we might have some change taking place, but not before then.
Todd Gleason:Anything else in the Midwest we need to know about? For instance, temperatures are coming up again. Will they be above normal, and for how long?
Drew Lerner:Oh, yeah. It is gonna get very warm. We we're gonna have a ridge of high pressure. It's gonna build into the middle of the country. It's already starting to evolve and we are seeing a lot of heat building up.
Drew Lerner:Most of the contiguous United States, except maybe the Atlantic coastal region will probably see temperatures well above normal as we go forward through this next ten days. We'll be seeing temperatures back in the eighties and nineties in the Plains and probably mostly eighties in the Western Corn Belt and a few tempers over 90, maybe in parts of Missouri and some spots in Iowa. And for the Eastern Midwest, like I said, it will be a little slow warming up there, but we'll get back into some 80 degree readings of there. So the ridge of high pressure will be around for a big part of the same ten days we're talking about. So it, and there's some models that say it'll stay warmer than normal into the end of the month.
Drew Lerner:I kind of agree with that. You know, if you go back in history and you look at these early season frost freeze events that take place, are almost always followed by a warmer bias in the autumn. Everyone gets nervous they're gonna see an early winter and it never comes. We end up with a very warm bias in the autumn. So that we may be stuck in this warm mode for a while.
Todd Gleason:Alright. Well, we got the prosphrease that you told us about from last week. I do wanna know further to the north of there in the Canadian Prairies how things are going today. It's been kind of on and off and spotty, mostly off for, I don't know, three to five years. It's just hard up there.
Todd Gleason:What are the what are conditions like for them?
Drew Lerner:Yeah. They are making some really good progress in the harvest across the Prairies right now, and that's by a byproduct of the fact that it was so dry during the last few weeks. They had a rain event of significance that occurred in late August, or I guess it was a little earlier in August than that, but that really turned around the canola yields and added a little bit of yield to the corn, soybeans and flax that are produced up there as well. And then of course it did get cold this past weekend, temperatures fell into the middle and upper twenties across parts of Saskatchewan. A number of areas were damaged in that cold surge.
Drew Lerner:And now they're warming up again and we have a rather large scale storm system that will be spreading rain across Saskatchewan in particular as we get into the weekend and early part of next week. That's a result of that warm air flowing back into that cold air mass and it always produces rain and we're gonna see that. This will be a fairly large event. We'll probably see one to two and a half inches of rain general across the central part of the Prairies and they'll be out of the fields for a while. The big worry up there right now is for the crops that are lying in the swath.
Drew Lerner:You know, they wanna get it picked up before this rain comes around. So there's a little bit of a small panic going on right now to try to get that accomplished.
Todd Gleason:Speaking of small panic, La Nina has been talked about a lot in South America. Any reason for producers there to panic and I suppose producers here to have little smile on their face?
Drew Lerner:Well, I wish I could reinforce that smile. You know? And I don't wanna wipe that smile off anybody's face. We need we need some help. I I certainly see that.
Drew Lerner:You know, we can always dream about La Nina, I suppose. But, you know, the reality here is that La Nina is not in place today. It is my rule and my experience that says if La Nina is in place in August or even early September, and it's a significant event, yes, it could have an impact in delaying seasonal rains and creating some problems with, you know, the same kind of thing we saw last year. But, you know, when I step back and I look at the weather over the past several weeks in South America, it looks absolutely normal. I haven't seen anything that would deviate from normal.
Drew Lerner:Argentina had a big rain event a week or two ago and it's really soaked the ground, got the wheat crop in much better shape and supporting some early sunseed planting right now. And in Brazil, the rains have been perfectly timed in the South supporting their wheat crop. And now there's some early corn planting beginning to occur there. And so that's really good for that. And then farther north, you know, the safrinha crops got harvested well because it was dry as a rock.
Drew Lerner:Well, that's all normal. And what we're seeing now is some suggestion in the model data that pre monsoonal showers are going to start popping up in another week to ten days across Center West and Center South Brazil. And without La Nina being in place, there's nothing here to disrupt the normal progression of weather patterns. And yeah, we might see a La Nina or La Nina like environment develop, but it's probably going to be in October or maybe even early November before the atmosphere responds. And if that's the case, when La Nina finally kicks in, all it's going to do is enhance the rain across Center West and Center South Brazil, making it an even better rainfall pattern for crops that were planted normally early.
Drew Lerner:And it will suppress some rain in Rio Grande do Sul and Southern Paraguay and Uruguay and maybe Eastern Most Argentina. But in this particular case, the lining is going to be very weak if it happens and therefore the anomalies are not going to be as great as what everyone's fearing. And so in this particular case, I don't think that's gonna have a big play. Yes. The rainfall will fall below average in Southern Brazil and Eastern Argentina in a later part of October and November.
Drew Lerner:But I don't think it's gonna be a game changer.
Todd Gleason:We'll talk with you again next week. Thank you much.
Drew Lerner:You bet. Have a good week.
Todd Gleason:That's Drew Lerner. He's with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Joined us on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois Public Medium. Public radio for the farming world, and you are the public part of that. And it's why we come to you a couple of times a year.
Todd Gleason:We're in the midst of our fall fund drive and ask you to make a pledge of financial support. This time around, I'm asking the agricultural audience if this program makes a difference to you and the kinds of things you're doing on the farm or marketing, then maybe it's time to step up. You know, we're in the middle of trying to raise a $100,000 over four days. Sure could use your help. You can dial in right now at (217) 244-9455.
Todd Gleason:That's (217) 244-9455, or go online to Will give, willgive.0rg, and make that pledge of financial support. Now I like to start at the $120 level, but we're under a little bit more of a gun this time around. So I'm gonna ask you to double whatever you've been making as a whatever kind of gift you've already been making. And if you've not ever given before, now's the time to start. Actually, really, we need you to help, and now is the time to start.
Todd Gleason:$40, a $120, $80, $3.20, you know, whatever. It the gift size doesn't matter. It matters that you give. Don't wait. Do it right now, and thank you for doing it.
Todd Gleason:It really makes a difference to me. Oh, and make sure you tell the person on the other end of the phone line in support of agriculture or write that in the comments section when you're filling out at willgive.0rg. Thanks for joining us on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. I'm extensions, Todd Gleason.