Subscribe
Share
Share
Embed
Welcome to "This is Health, Wealth, and the Pursuit of Happiness" your source for insightful discussions with economist and author, Dr. Murray Sabrin. Join us as we challenge convention, expand minds, and pursue truth.
Murray Sabrin (00:01.088)
Welcome to Health, Wealth, and the Pursuit of Happiness. I'm your host, Murray Sabrin, B A, A, Ph D. There's no BS in my background, never has been and never will be. On this podcast, we explore the ideas, the people, and the principles that shape healthier lives, greater prosperity, and human flourishing. In each episode, we'll challenge conventional wisdom on healthcare, economics, politics, and personal freedom so you can think independently.
Make better decisions and pursue your happiness. Thanks for joining us today. And we have a very special guest today. I want to introduce him right now, Michael Oliver from Cal the Great State of Colorado, who joined the financial services industry in nineteen seventy-five, working in the commodities division of EF International EF Hutton International. In nineteen eighty, Mike began his own momentum-based.
method of analyzing financial markets. And we're going to get into that today because he has an enviable track record in making forecasts about the financial markets. And in 1987, well we all we all remember if you're old enough, we had a crash in October 1987. And Mike's methodology anticipated the crash. So we'll talk about that also. And then in the mid-90s he became a full-time financial analyst on his own.
And he now is has his own company, which we'll talk about. And in nineteen seventy-two he wrote a book that was published, believe it or not, many years later, entitled Libertarianism and Accro Capitalism. And the president of Argentina calls himself an acro capitalist. And it's it merges the concepts of Ayn Rand and Murray Rothbard. So, Mike, welcome to Well Health, Wealth and the Pursuit of Happiness.
Michael Oliver (01:50.296)
Good to be here, Murray.
Murray Sabrin (01:51.83)
It's great to see you. we met a couple of years ago with the Mises Institute where you gave a wonderful talk. We'll link to it on on our YouTube channel so people can hear your talk about public policy and all that implies for the American people. So let's get into what you have accomplished in your career in financial services. So tell us how you began in the fin financial services. What's your academic background and how you got into financial services?
Michael Oliver (02:17.898)
well. I was working on a PhD in political philosophy at University of Hawaii in seventy three seventy four and I decided to quit. I finished all my coursework and everything I was gonna work on a PhD dissertation and
I think my subject was going to be Lysander Spooner. But anyway, I was getting some flack from the people higher up in the academic world there. And a good friend of mine at the same time back in the States had joined Merrill Lynch on the commodity side. And my friend was academic as well, so it wasn't, you know, like he was a financial guy, but he joined the future side of Merrill Lynch. He said, Come on in, the water's fine. We've got to remember the context then. The context is the global stag.
Inflation, 74 and 75, especially. And that's what economists couldn't figure it out how you could have a you know a weak economy and yet rising prices. They can't figure out much anyway. But I joined Hutton in New York, the headquarters commodity division, 75, a couple months after gold was legalized. You know, it's like legalizing drugs or something. My goodness, banned gold. Okay, anyway, it was legalized in January. And so
and I joined them in April. I didn't know anything about technical analysis.
you know, plotting charts like all the technicians do. And I learned because my boss was a great technician, and he was also the chairman of the Comex at the time, Commodity Exchange in New York, where they traded gold, silver, etc. I spent a year and a half there and it was fun. I learned a lot, went off into the retail branches of Hutton at that point down in Florida. And I lived in the for through and up until let's see, late late eighties, early nineties in
Michael Oliver (04:11.224)
The futures side of the brokerage business. So I was a broker, futures broker. And I learned a lot during those years, but I the one thing I did is I developed a momentum-based method of analysis of markets. Rather than just looking at price, I looked at the momentum of price in a different way than most people do. But when you look at price, you've got to realize this concept.
Price is a measurement of an asset, but it's measured by a yardstick that's ever changing. So like if you built a house and and it took you a year to do it, and the yardstick said thirty-six inches, and always said thirty-six inches, and yet it really grew.
It still said 36. By the time you finished your house on one end and the yardstick had changed, your house would collapse because all your measurements were really wrong, even though the yardstick still said 36. when you measure an asset, you're measuring it against the depreciating fiat currency that you're using. So the yen, the euro, the pound, the dollar. And if you look at an M2 chart, you'll realize how.
silly that metric is in terms of
Murray Sabrin (05:28.822)
And two is a broad measure of the money supply in circulation.
Michael Oliver (05:31.99)
Yeah, and the money's correct, correct. And you can see that, you know, basically every decade money growth's about eighty percent, you know, almost regardless of up or down in the economy. Okay. And so it's a constant decay in the real buying power. So like when your granddad built the house, it was forty five hundred dollars. When your dad built one, it was forty five hundred. I mean forty five thousand. And then if you want to build a median home today, it's four hundred and fifty thousand. Well
Murray Sabrin (05:42.261)
Interesting.
Murray Sabrin (05:58.869)
Mm.
Michael Oliver (05:59.65)
You know, the yardstick has changed, okay? And the house is merely expressing the decay in the dollar buying power. And the same with true with price charts. So if you if you buy a stock at ten bucks and a year later it's twenty and you think, boy, I've made money? Huh, well think twice. Did you really make money? Or do you do nominally make money? So with momentum, what we do is we partially remove
Price is the sole measuring factor. We measure instead the dynamics of that asset, admittedly, you know, as measured by the money unit. But we measure its dynamics, and some assets are pretty dormant. You know, they're going sideways and not doing much. and so anything you see in price there is almost totally a reflection of the decay in the money unit. But if you've got an asset that's rising a lot or declining a lot, then its own dynamics help shape its price level, not just
The number of dollar units to buy it. And so to some extent, we've taken a half step away from using simple dollar measurement of an asset. And when we do that, we end up with a different visual picture than you do when you look at a simple, simplistic price chart.
Quite often, in fact almost always at major tops and bottoms, you'll notice that the momentum deviates substantially, technically, from what the price seems to be telling you. So often you'll see a price market that's making a top.
And a price chart looks great. You don't even see any point of vulnerability nearby. But you look at the momentum chart and it says, whoa, you just broke a three-year uptrend or a floor that goes back five years, in which case you get a heads up that something is going on. Because you're halfway removing yourself from trusting the money unit that you're using to measure by. So that's what we're our method is based on.
Michael Oliver (07:59.648)
And we've been doing it since '92, and we've had major institutional clients over the years. And in 2016, we opened it up to retail subscribers, momentum structural analysis. But right now we're in a very interesting time. One that you and I should love. And Murray and Ayn Rand, if they were still here, they would be smiling in anticipation of the cleansing event that's about that are about to occur.
Murray Sabrin (08:29.558)
So let let me understand this. Is the momentum model that you've created, is it a heavily mathematical model, or what is the essence of that of that methodology?
Michael Oliver (08:38.306)
Well, it's it it's mathematical, but then we visib visibly plot it as well. And so when you see the chart plotted, you'll let's say a bar chart of a price chart of the S and P, let's say, monthly bar chart, and you'll see this, we took out the twenty twenty five high. boy, all time new highs. And when you look at momentum, you're not making new highs, and you've got a structure underneath you such that if you slip off too much
Murray Sabrin (08:42.666)
Okay.
Michael Oliver (09:04.326)
in price terms, like especially as we get into next quarter, you'd blow a floor that goes back like three years and and even longer on some other metrics. Meaning you've just entered a bear market even though price chart still looks pretty happy.
Murray Sabrin (09:19.5)
Hmm.
Michael Oliver (09:20.066)
this is what happened in eighty seven, it's what happened in twenty-nine, it's what happened a lot of times in places when the market is topped. It's happened with gold, silver, most assets that we we analyze, especially using long-term momentum, we can anticipate major topping action, major bottoming action, and during a trend, we can assess whether this given rally or that sell-off is meaningful or not.
You know, oftentimes a market will have a counter trend move opposite to its major trend, and it's meaningless or it could be meaningful. Momentum will tell you. But anyway, that's how we s see the world, okay.
Murray Sabrin (09:58.038)
So w w so so let's go back to one of the most two events that occurred in more recent history. One is the dot com bubble and the housing bubble. What were your indicators telling you at that time that allowed you to make whatever forecast you did?
Michael Oliver (10:08.844)
Yep. huh.
Michael Oliver (10:13.806)
Mm-hmm.
Well in two thousand, January of two thousand, we put out a major get out of here signal, sell signal. We had also prior in night in nineteen ninety-five had put out a major upside signal. That's prior to when the dot-com really started to go vertical.
Murray Sabrin (10:34.988)
Mm-hmm.
Michael Oliver (10:35.712)
The leadership on the upside between n mid nineteen nineties and two thousand was internet based stocks, which are primarily housed in the Nasdaq one hundred, for example, not so much in the S P. So NASDAQ one hundred went up more than the S P because the leadership was within it. But in January two thousand we put out a signal saying, Be gone. It could be laborious, we said. In other words, the topping process. It may not may not go down right away, but it's it's just a place to get out, because it's
No good. Well, sure enough, the market labored for a year, including making a new high in the month of August of 2000. But here's a point that we can make later about silver if we get to that. Often markets get to a point of excess, and the excess might even be valid fundamentally. In other words, dot com, for example.
Everybody was raving about back in 2000 how it's gonna change your life for the better. Okay, you know what? It did. In fact, it did more so than people even thought. So it was a true statement, it's gonna change your life. And yet it got excessive. It went too far for too long. And so when the bear market occurred from 2000 to 2002, the SP went down 50%, but the NASDAQ 100 went down more than 80%.
Murray Sabrin (11:58.966)
Mm-hmm.
Michael Oliver (11:59.733)
Despite the truth that AI is gonna, I'm not AI, excuse me, that's today, that internet.com is gonna change your life. True statement. But it got excessive. And often when markets make an error in going too far upside or too far on the downside for too long, when they correct for that error, go the other way. They often do it.
almost in a tantrum like way. They go too far the other way even. and often they do it quickly. Meaning they they once they realize what what's going on, usually that's well off the high before most people realize it, then suddenly you get more speed and puking on the downside. Well
That sort of action is now underway on the monetary metals on the upside. So anyway, we're in a very interesting world right now where the bear market in stocks that's about to unfold is going to be far worse, especially fundamentally to the average person, than the dot-com top and bear and the mortgage crisis top and bear.
This one is far bigger in terms of its fundamental decrepitude. we have not a mortgage crisis now. We got a government debt crisis. We got a bond crisis. We're in the same soup as Japan. Whoa, that's a nuclear event.
Murray Sabrin (13:21.484)
Mm-hmm.
Murray Sabrin (13:30.476)
So so basically let's let's go go back a little bit. the market reached a peak in two thousand seven during the housing bubble. It declined until March of two thousand nine. And we've basically been up since then, with of course swings in between. The most recent one, I guess, was when Trump announced his tariffs and the market tanked that way, I think about almost twenty yeah. So th does your the
Michael Oliver (13:38.913)
Yeah, yeah.
Michael Oliver (13:47.65)
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Michael Oliver (13:54.466)
That lasted for about two months or three months of selling. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's all. Yeah.
Murray Sabrin (13:59.018)
Does your momentum indicator pick up these type of events, these short term downsides to the market?
Michael Oliver (14:04.236)
Yeah.
Yep. also w we need to talk about those events sometimes 'cause sometimes the headline events that suddenly smack people in the face. And especially when you're at the top or right off the top,
Those aren't the factors that caused the bear market. Those are headline distortions. Yes, it's real. Tariffs had an impact. But tariffs are still here. And yet the market turned around in a V-bottom manner in April last year and shot back up to a new high. Okay? Heck, heck with tariffs, okay? Three months worth of selling, a panic drop of 20%, which we did call. And we also, prior when that move was underway.
January through April of twenty twenty five.
We had predicted that there would be a quote bounce point of significance around 4800 on the S P. Its highs prior to that 4800 low in April were 6200 roughly. Okay, so it dropped down to 4834 and V bottomed out of the hole. So it dropped down to a level we thought would be support. Sure enough it was. And we went and made a new high. And then again we got a distortion here recently with the Iran event.
Michael Oliver (15:19.47)
Everybody's extrapolating about this is gonna do this, that, and the other, and this is gonna change the world. Well, yeah, it's an interesting event, but it's gonna come and go, and it's not the reason why the stock market will top. The reason the stock market is gonna top fundamentally, if you want to reason, go look at an M2 chart or a Fed funds rate chart. Go back decades, sixties at least. You'll see.
For decades the Fed funds rate chart lived up and down moves, but starting in 2009, which you mentioned, the bear market low, actually in November of 2008, Bernanke instituted QE.
He took a page from the Japanese and he panicked. That was after Lehman went under October 2008. The stock market, a year off its high, finally had a real bad month, like 30% drop in one month, and he he wet his pants. And so he went to QE. What happened? Stock market continued on down for five more months to March 2009.
Gold exploded and was back to its highs within about two, three months, over a thousand, on its way up to nearly two thousand. While the stock market took until 2013 on the SP to ever get back to its 2007 high. So a whole lot of wasted time. But anyway, the Fed panicked. And that's the key factor.
In the distorted pricing of the stock market. When you look at an M2 chart since 2007, see how much the growth has been. We'll go back to 2000, even the dot-com top. Where was M2? Where is it now? What growth has it had? Where was the SP? Where is it now? The SP has only matched the monetary growth. It really hasn't made money in real sense of the word.
Murray Sabrin (17:17.716)
Mm.
Michael Oliver (17:18.582)
It's actually replicated two. Gold is vastly outpacted, by the way.
so if you think the S P's looking great, well you I can buy just as many loaves of bread now with the S P if I sell it as I could in two thousand. Okay? You get the point. what is distorted the S P? M2, look at the chart, and free money since 2009. The Fed funds rate has either been at zero for many of those years and had highs are about five percent. And when you look even at those five percent
Murray Sabrin (17:34.28)
Interesting. Yeah.
Michael Oliver (17:54.074)
Upturns in the Fed funds rate and go back seventy-five years, it's a trivial peak. It's in the lower quadrant of the past seventy-five years of interest of cost of money. Thank you, Fed. So in effect, the Fed has created a cheech and chong situation. They've drugged the market with lots of money and free money. And so it went somewhere. It went into the stock market.
Murray Sabrin (18:20.14)
So so let me let me ask you this, because we want to get to the medals also. how soon do you expect this peak in the stock market to to occur? Because there are some analysts now, because of this big run up we've had since end of March, that some Wall Street analysts are now revising their forecast and they think the market's gonna go to the mid eight thousands on the S P where it's
Michael Oliver (18:33.592)
Yeah, yeah.
Michael Oliver (18:40.154)
yeah, yeah.
Michael Oliver (18:43.744)
I heard one today going to 9,000. Okay, that's great. Super. I love it. I want everybody to be smiling and applauding. That's the way you make a market top. You don't make it with a tariffs. it's all over. No, it isn't. Okay. Iran situation. It'll come and go. and its effects will come and go. What's really the causal factor is you've created a bubble.
And if you've created not just a stock market asset bubble, but a reality bubble.
Where you've caused people to act upon false concepts. Like if you make an investment decision, like build a new factory if you own a company, or hire more employees, or husband and wife decide to double the size of their home and go build a new home somewhere, and the mortgage costs are reasonably low for them, they make a decision in part, largely based on what's the price of money.
And if the Fed gave you a cheaper than reality price of money, then you made a mistake. Especially once that truth exposes itself. And you say, oops, all of a sudden bond yields are going up. Why? Well, they've got a government debt crisis. and you expose, you rip open the the
Needle they put in your arm, you rip it off, and suddenly you realize you've been on drugs. And you look at all the errors you've made in terms of spending, expectations, risks, and you realize, gosh. And you know, for each family and each company, it might be slightly different, but it's still a massive, widespread error in pricing. And when the market pukes to sort of expunge the errors it's made.
Michael Oliver (20:32.846)
You know, a law of the mortgage crisis, the dot-com overpricing, etc., it usually does it in a savage way. We expect technically, I expect to see the market start to wobble after making these new highs during this quarter. There's another month and you know, a couple weeks left in the quarter. Once we get into July, August set period.
using quarterly momentum of the S P. I'll tell you this, I won't get too specific, 'cause we that's what we tell our subscribers. The S P had highs for about six months prior to the recent new highs that were all capped at or below six seven thousand. Okay. So you look at a price chart of the SP and you could see like a ceiling. So in other words there was a place there where people somebody was distributing. They were saying, I'm out, I'm out.
I'm out. They kept selling as you got up near 7,000. Usually those distribution zone tops don't prevail. Usually they get t taken out, but they prove to have been fairly wise in hindsight. Once you get out above that 7,000 level, right now we're 7400, 7500 zone. If during next quarter you slip back down below that 7,000,
Some price guys might start to wonder, ooh, how come we're back below the launch point? So they'll start to disturb them, but momentum will be screaming its head off. That you're blowing massive multi-year structures that indicate bare trend starting. So what I would say is this if you're in stocks and you believe in it, fine. Don't ever
Weather a pullback below 7,000 on the SP. If it gets below there, reconsider your thoughts. Because it's highly likely that it's going to implode at that point. And I don't mean crash, you don't have to crash, but start a major bear trend. And that wave effect will create what? An outflow of money.
Michael Oliver (22:40.392)
Asset managers, pension funds, individuals will start to say, ooh, that hurts. I suddenly lost 20% of my retirement. I gotta find another place to go. Well, what's the other place? T bonds historically has been an alternative. And gold. During bare trends, those two markets tend to do well. This time that's not the case. The bonds, in fact, look like a negative factor.
in a potential stock market top. So all of a sudden you want to get out of stocks and you look at bonds and say, what are you left with? Monetary metals.
Murray Sabrin (23:19.926)
So let's get into the monetary metals. We had a big run up to a peak in January and they've corrected since then. so what's your general overview of the metals? Let's say going out the next several years.
Michael Oliver (23:30.742)
Yeah. Mm-hmm. Okay. Going out the next several months, I think, is more important, and pardon me for saying this. Gold and silver have been going up since a bare low in two thousand fifteen, December two thousand fifteen. They dropped about halfway back from their two thousand eleven peak, which was nineteen hundred and twenty on gold. It made a low at a thousand fifty in December two thousand fifteen, four years later.
Murray Sabrin (23:36.811)
Okay.
Michael Oliver (23:58.638)
Three months after that low, we put out a major long-term buy signal. The price was $11.40 then. And we said gold is bottomed, it's going up. Quite often, annual momentum trends will last for years. Okay. All the way up, there have been surges with range-bound activity, sometimes for a couple years, like between 2000 and 2022, or 2020 and 2022, that was like up, down, up, down, sideways. We're now in the phase of the bull market where price is accelerating.
At a greater angle of ascent than it has prior in this bull trend. If you go back and look at gold since it was legalized, 75, it it opened at a high at 200 bucks and went bound. As soon as it got legalized, it already reached two hundred after having been thirty-five, okay? And then seventy-five to seventy-six it dropped halfway back down to a hundred area. Okay.
So from 76 to 80, it went up to $850 from near 100. That's an eight-fold gain. Okay? And then it had a bear market. But it didn't come back down to 50 or 100 again. It leveled off in the mid-200s. And then in 2001, 2001 area, the goal was 265, 260 area, let's say. And by 2011, it was 1920, another eight-fold move.
Different span of time. Well, this one started from 1,050. You do the math. If gold were to merely replicate the multiple gains, percent gain it had in those two prior bull markets, it would be like a through and fifty. Just to do it again, just to say, I've done this twice before, I'm gonna do it again. Okay. No big deal.
In fact, JP Morgan just recently came out with a report that was fundamentally based, it's like three months ago, I think they said, target's ninety-two hundred. So they're pretty honest about that. I don't think gold's gonna stop at another eight-fold move. We have far different fundamentals this time, as you know, than we've ever had before, because we now have no longer private debt crisis. We have that too, but we have a government bond crisis, where the government
Michael Oliver (26:12.962)
Back in November, Williams, the head of the New York Fed, said Fed's gonna start buying bonds. He said the reason was liquidity for the market. great, that's all. Providing a service. Okay. They haven't been able to help bonds much. Bond prices have continued down, not collapsed. And now yields are back to the highs of the last, you know, since 2007, okay, on 30-year bonds. The end of the market the Fed doesn't control very well.
Well, that's a choking factor, also for private debt, which is showing evidence of hurting. We study the financial sector very closely when most people looking at AI and semiconductors. We're looking at banks, credit card companies, the financial sector broadly, and we see something totally different going on there.
So when everybody says, hey, the stock market made a new high, n yeah, well in a way, almost any sector you want to look at within the S and P other than tech is not made a new high.
We made a high six months ago. Financials didn't make a new high, banks didn't make a new high, industrials didn't make a new high, healthcare didn't make a new high. Sector by sector, you don't see new highs. Same thing went on in 2007, by the way, prior to the collapse. Financial sector deviated from the SP. When the SP made a new high in October 2007.
by the way, an all time new high. It even took out the two thousand price high at that time. S P did. So it's like, boy, look at me, all time new high. Financials didn't. And then they they led the way. In other words, the financials told you something's not right here, but nobody was paying attention. Except the guys that you know the the big short movie. They were paying attention. Okay.
Murray Sabrin (27:44.416)
Mm-hmm.
Murray Sabrin (27:58.432)
Mm.
Murray Sabrin (28:02.296)
Yeah, yeah, yeah. That that book, I read that book and I saw the movie and it was just amazing how they were able to anticipate the housing bubble and and and the movie captured it very nicely.
Michael Oliver (28:11.49)
Well yeah.
Yeah, it did. The the one thing that smacks you in the face though is they anticipated it fundamentally. And they anticipated it a couple years before it actually began. So they were right. MSA got bearish
Murray Sabrin (28:21.025)
Yeah.
Michael Oliver (28:29.838)
Predicting the top zone. In late 2006, we put out a report saying the high will be next year between 1550 and 1600 on the SP, meaning an all-time new high, because the high in 2000 had been 1550. Okay. And sure enough, the Fed cut rates in September 2007 by half a point, surprise rate cut, and popped the SP to an all-time new high at 1576, right smack in our target zone that we had said in December of the year before.
Would be the target zone. And that was it. Financials didn't make a new high, but SP did.
Murray Sabrin (29:05.964)
Mm. S so so so from your so from your experience and your the history of financial markets, it le it seems that the financial sector sort of leads stock market tops. Is that your contention?
Michael Oliver (29:21.228)
Well it but because frankly, you know this and I know this, the government distorts things financially through money manipulation, through the pricing of money and the quantity of money. They're the prime distorter of reality. And that impacts most clearly and first off the financial sector.
People who borrow money, people who lend money. And therefore, they are really at the cutting edge of the real fundamental that's driving prices to up in the stock market, the increase in the money supply. And the pricing of money with the interest rates artificially low for 16 years now, off-the-page low on average. So distortions have occurred and they're showing up. Like last October, we put out a report pointing out Visa and MasterCard.
And if you look at a chart of Visa and MasterCard now and go back to last October, you'll understand why we were negative. Okay? They they just continue on down. Not collapsing. No, no, no. No headlines. It's not even a topic on CNBC or Fox Business News. Talk about AI and NVIDIA. Well, pay attention to the financials, guys. They're they're kind of smart. Okay. Gold knows it. Gold knows it.
Murray Sabrin (30:17.132)
Hm.
Murray Sabrin (30:36.236)
So l we just have a few minutes left, Michael. What where do you think silver is headed? Because it had this huge run up and you made s I I've seen you on other podcasts, you've had some very optimistic views on where the price of silver is going. What's the what
Michael Oliver (30:41.154)
Yeah.
Michael Oliver (30:50.71)
No, they're just re they're realistic moves. if you go back and look at a price of copper going back to the eighties, go look at price of lead going back to the nineteen eighties, go look at gold. None of those markets have been restrained in a range of multiple decades. Copper broke out of a similar range that silver was in the five bucks to fifty for fifty years. Wouldn't make a new high. Gold made new highs in each bull market, silver still capped at fifty.
Murray Sabrin (31:12.3)
Hmm.
Michael Oliver (31:17.806)
copper broke out in 2005 and within several quarters quadrupled in price, 2005 to 6, without a headline. Quadrupled in price, breaking out of a 50-year range between 50 cents and a buck fifty a pound. It went up to 410. Most of that ended about three quarters once it broke out. Lead did the same thing in 2007. How come silver has only just now
Late last year, October, November, December, finally decided to break out of a half-century range when hardly any other metal out there even looks like it. In fact, if it were to replicate copper, where copper is now, it's six bucks. Okay, its average price during the 70s, 80s, 90s, 2005 was a dollar.
It's sixfold, okay? What's sixfold? Okay, you get the point. And if you factor the money growth and say, well, where was the money supply of silver in nineteen eighty? Where was the money supply two chart in twenty eleven when silver was also at fifty?
Murray Sabrin (32:05.772)
Mm.
Michael Oliver (32:22.84)
What kind of growth did we get? Therefore, if silver reflected the decay in the money unit, where might it be? And I keep coming up with via technicals and via analysis like that and also looking at other markets, what they've done, a range from 300 to 500. And I think when we come out of this congestion zone that we've been in, and I view it as a congestion zone, not a top.
Murray Sabrin (32:39.82)
Wow.
Michael Oliver (32:47.534)
And we're focused very intently right now on defining the point at which we think we're coming out without having to wait for price to actually come out. I think silver will do it in about three months, we'll reach into that zone very rapidly, much like what copper and lead did during their upside ventilations.
Where in effect they do the reverse of an overbought stock market. They say, Hey, I've been down here too long, I'm at underpriced too long, I'm gonna make up for it and I'm not gonna take years to do it.
Murray Sabrin (33:18.796)
So what would be the supply demand situation that would drive the price of silver to the levels that you just you know?
Michael Oliver (33:22.198)
So that's another factor. It's already got a supply-demand deficit for four f five years now. I mean, good grief. It not only is underpriced relation to money, it's underpriced relation to the history of other metals going back decades. It's underpriced in relation to gold by vast amounts. And it's yet it's had a fundamental supply-demand deficit for five years. What's been holding it back? Well
Yeah, we know some there's been restraining efforts to keep it confined, and once those fail, those who've been trying to restrain it will be destroyed and probably quickly if they continue to try to restrain it. Because reality ultimately wins. And again, Rothbard and Rand would see this as just another part of the overall movement of assets of reality toward a new reality.
Murray Sabrin (34:14.038)
Let me ask you the let's wrap up with a with a sixty-four thousand dollar question. We the dot-com bubble drove the Nasdaq down about over eighty percent, as you pointed out. The the twenty-nine to thirty-two decline in the stock market, the b the big one, the the Dow Jones went down eighty-nine percent. Do you see anything like that happening to the stock to the stock market?
Michael Oliver (34:17.9)
Yeah.
Mm-hmm.
Michael Oliver (34:32.514)
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, it could be. Could I could I could see it, yes. But that's not really our goal. once these bear markets start, they usually get most of the bear markets last two two and a half or so years. And they get a hell of a lot done on the downside. especially in the sector that was the leader. It might not top first, but when it gets gone on the downside, it it often will go down more than the sectors that lagged.
Murray Sabrin (34:45.452)
Mm-hmm.
Michael Oliver (35:01.388)
And I think this is a global phenomenon. We look at markets around the world, China, Japan, India, all of them. And there's vulnerability we see worldwide. So it's not just going to be a US event, although we are one of the most prominent bubbles in the world indices right now, in terms of likely overdone error on the upside, therefore likely to be a leader on the downside. And that will create yeah, that'll create the kind of fundamentals you and I know and expect to see.
Murray Sabrin (35:25.302)
Michael, thanks for
Murray Sabrin (35:29.88)
Yeah. Fantastic. How can pe people keep up as a subscriber to your service?
Michael Oliver (35:36.152)
Well it's olivermsa.com for Momentum Structural Analysis. Oliver MSA. Go to the site, we explain in some detail our unorthodox method of seeing price action markets. We've got a lot of old archived reports you can look at, and you can request sample copies.
Murray Sabrin (35:55.436)
Terrific. Michael, this has been wonderful. Sort of a round-the-world view of where the financial markets are, where they have been, and where they're probably going. And with your unique approach to momentum structural analysis, I think people will enjoy your research and you cover the financial markets, the commodity markets, and it's a real treat to read your material. So I want to thank you for being on Health, Wealth, and the Pursuit of Happiness. We'll have to have you back in a few months to see exactly.
How the markets have unfolded since we reached a peak here on May 22nd. We have a new Fed chairman. We'll see how the Fed reacts to all the events occurring and whether they inject another bunch of liquidity into the into the financial markets to prop things up. So I want to thank we so thanks, Michael. It's great. thank you for viewing and listening, Health, Wealth, and the Pursuit of Happiness.
Michael Oliver (36:39.047)
Mm-hmm. Count on
Murray Sabrin (36:51.54)
Until next time, keep questioning conventional wisdom. Keep pursuing truth and keep striving for a healthier, freer, and more prosperous life. Next week, we're going to continue our discussion of financial markets with investment analyst and New York Times bestseller Doug Casey. You don't want to miss next week's set session. Doug has been around the world looking for great investment opportunities. So until next week, have a great weekend, and we'll see you a week from now.
Michael Oliver (37:17.014)
Yeah.