The Auto Market Brief

Why is uptime becoming one of the most important metrics in transportation, and what do freight markets reveal about the state of the economy?

In this episode of The Auto Market Brief, host Erin Keating is joined by Cox Automotive’s Zo Rahim and Cox Fleet’s Alex Fraser to explore the commercial side of automotive and the growing pressures facing fleet operators. From tightening freight capacity and rising diesel prices to increasing insurance costs and operational complexity, the discussion examines the forces shaping the businesses responsible for moving goods, services, and businesses across America.

Freight markets remain under pressure: While freight rates have improved, much of the recent movement has been driven by tightening capacity rather than a broad-based recovery in demand. The discussion examines what freight conditions reveal about economic activity and why growth remains uneven across industries.

Rising costs continue to challenge operators: Higher fuel prices, increasing insurance expenses, and ongoing operational pressures are creating challenges for carriers, particularly smaller operators and service providers. Even as rates improve, profitability remains under pressure for many businesses in the transportation ecosystem.

Why uptime matters more than ever: For commercial operators, vehicles are revenue-generating assets. Every breakdown, delay, or maintenance issue can disrupt operations and impact the bottom line, making uptime one of the most critical performance metrics in fleet management today.

The discussion also explores predictive maintenance, connected vehicle technology, freight theft, dealer and OEM fleet opportunities, autonomous trucking, electrification, and what fleet operators can teach the rest of the automotive industry about managing assets and maximizing performance.

In this episode of The Auto Market Brief, host Erin Keating is joined by Cox Automotive’s Zo Rahim and Cox Fleet’s Alex Fraser to explore the commercial side of automotive and the growing pressures facing fleet operators. From tightening freight capacity and rising diesel prices to increasing insurance costs and operational complexity, the discussion examines the forces shaping the businesses responsible for moving goods, services, and businesses across America.

The Auto Market Brief delivers timely data, clear context, and practical insight to help industry leaders make smarter decisions—what's happening now, and what's coming next.

The Auto Market Brief is powered by Cox Automotive. For more industry insights and expert perspectives, visit our Insights Hub at Cox Automotive Insights Hub.

Creators and Guests

Host
Erin Keating
Erin Keating is an Executive Analyst and Senior Director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. She brings 30 years of professional experience, including 14 years in the automotive industry, providing analysis on market conditions, automaker performance, and consumer demand shaping the economics of the new-vehicle market. Erin spent 10 years with Audi of America, including leading Audi Motorsport North America, informing her perspective on both commercial strategy and competitive dynamics.
Guest
Alex Fraser
Alex Fraser is VP of Cox Fleet by Cox Automotive. Cox Fleet provides end-to-end fleet services and technology solutions that help businesses manage vehicle operations more efficiently across the full lifecycle. Cox Fleet supports fleet owners with expertise in vehicle acquisition, maintenance, mobility, remarketing, and data-driven fleet optimization. Previously, Fraser served as AVP of FleetNet American, general manager at Manheim Portland and assistant general manager of Manheim Statesville in North Carolina.
Guest
Zohaib Rahim
Zo Rahim serves as Senior Manager, Economic & Industry Insights at Cox Automotive, where he provides strategic economic intelligence that informs business decisions for the company. With over a decade of macroeconomic experience, Zo's expertise spans global economics, U.S. fiscal and monetary policy, financial markets, and consumer sectors. His insights on U.S. economic and industry trends have been featured in prominent news outlets including Automotive News, Reuters, Bloomberg, and The Wall Street Journal. He holds a degree in economics and mathematics from Emory University.

What is The Auto Market Brief?

The Auto Market Brief, powered by Cox Automotive, breaks down the latest trends and forecasts shaping the automotive industry. The show is hosted by Cox Automotive Executive Analyst Erin Keating, coupling years of experience translating data and trends with the data and industry insights of the largest automotive services and technology provider.

Joined by other Cox Automotive experts and outside guests, you’ll get data-driven insights and industry outlooks from some of the industry’s leading voices.​

Erin Keating:

Welcome to the Auto Market Brief from Cox Automotive. Each episode, our experts and special guests break down the latest trends, insights, and news shaping the automotive market. We'll give you the information that truly matters so you can make smarter decisions and drive your business forward. Hello. Welcome back to The Auto Market Brief.

Erin Keating:

I'm Erin Keating, your host and industry executive analyst here at Cox Automotive. Today, we were widening the circle of what we're talking about because usually we're really focusing in on the retail market, dealers, automakers, etcetera. But we wanted to explore the area that both of my, cohosts here today are very familiar with, which is the commercial side of automotive, the fleets and vehicles that keep goods, services, and businesses moving around America. So joining me today are Zo Rahim, who is actually a fellow colleague of mine on the economic and industry insights team focusing on this particular subject matter. So welcome, Zo.

Erin Keating:

And then we have, the esteemed Alex Fraser, good friend of mine here, who actually leads customer operations for Cox Fleet. And we're excited to kinda dive into the business that both of you guys look into. So most of our conversation, again, focuses on consumers, dealers, vehicle sales, but commercial operators really deal, in a different realm, if you will. They see the market through a different lens. I think of, you know, utilization, uptime, replacement cycles, freight demand, and what it keeps to really keep their assets moving.

Erin Keating:

So cost of ownership has a completely different definition in that area. And those signals can also, often tell us a better health signal for what the broader economy is. So, again, like, it's always great to get your additional insights, Zoha, and wherever we're meeting as a team to talk about what's happening in the market. So, Alex, I wanna get the audience a bit oriented about Cox Automotive Fleet Solutions because I think this is an area that most people may not be familiar with, at least our listening audience as of currently. And then Zoha, just bring you in to help connect, some of that with what the broader economy is saying.

Erin Keating:

So, Alex, why don't you start? For listeners who spend most of their time again thinking about retail vehicle sales, what are they missing about the commercial side of the business?

Alex Fraser:

Yeah. I mean, I think, as someone who grew up in the car business on the Manheim side, learning it has been fascinating only because of how vast it is. Right? And usually, when I'm meeting anybody and I talk about it, just look around the room. Every single thing that you see has been on a truck, but it's probably been on three or four.

Alex Fraser:

Mhmm. And that's once it's final assembled. Right? But even the parts or components that go into it, and so whether it's the food that we're eating or the supplies at the hospital, whether it's the medicine, the sheets, the bed. Right?

Alex Fraser:

And, of course, yeah, cars at the dealership. Right? Like, how many of those parts were on trucks before they were finally assembled? How many of the cars have been on trucks? Right?

Alex Fraser:

Like and and I think you we're all just kind of familiarly blind with all of the trucks on the road because there's so many of them. But when you start to think about what it takes to keep them moving, it becomes a really complicated, interesting business that we did get into about six years ago, seven years ago, and it's been a great ride since

Erin Keating:

then. So It it makes me think about the conversation we had earlier on the podcast with Joe George, of course, as he retires from mobility at the end of this year. You know, he was talking about the transportation of everything. You know, this is the heartbeat, and certainly all of us in our neighborhoods. How many times do we see FedEx and Amazon trucks, like, day in and day out, never mind the mail truck, right, that thank God is still running?

Erin Keating:

I'm sure you could tell us a little bit about that. So how large and important is the fleet market, and what specifically are we sort of looking at servicing? What problems are underlying in the business?

Alex Fraser:

Yeah. I mean, it's very interesting, the fleet market, how folks divo define the total addressable market depending on who you're talking to or what you're talking about. But in general, the repair and maintenance space is broadly considered to be about an 80 to $100,000,000,000 TAM.

Erin Keating:

Wow.

Alex Fraser:

And so it's a pretty massive market. Sure. Additionally, it's extremely decentralized.

Erin Keating:

Sure.

Alex Fraser:

And so there's just a lot of opportunity to help folks understand what's going on. I mean, we recently had a client who has fourteen fourteen thousand assets, and they couldn't tell you which ones were good on preventative maintenance and which ones were bad because they left it all up to their local operators. Now they were doing a great job.

Erin Keating:

Right.

Alex Fraser:

Right. In general, they were doing an okay okay job given that they effectively had no tools, but this, you know, kind of new leadership team is like, gosh, I I feel like we should have overall insight. It's like, yeah. But to then go to each local operator who's used to doing it the way he's always been doing it, and then say, well, we're gonna have a little bit more structured program without being, you know, domineering or overbearing in it, but just helping them understand the value of of the structure of consolidated pricing, of visibility up so that, you know, corporate actually can help them Sure. From a vehicle acquisition, from parts, from all of these things.

Alex Fraser:

And so that's just one example in a giant world that is it it impacts literally every single person in this country.

Erin Keating:

And, you know, you you just mentioned predictive maintenance, and that's become more and more of a word that we even use in just retail vehicles Sure. Customers. So tell me a little bit more about why has that become such a big buzzword in the industry, and how are how are we looking to solve it? I mean, what's what's helpful there?

Alex Fraser:

Yeah. Predictive maintenance, I think, is sort of this you know, you talked about Joe. Like, he likes to talk about the golden snitch from Harry Potter. Like, we're always chasing. I I think the reality of even just better maintenance, more a more regular maintenance is step one.

Alex Fraser:

Mhmm. Because as you think about predictive, like, I think the the vision for everybody is we hear from the vehicle, whether it's the truck, the trailer, the component, we can hear it's sick. We go procure the part that it needs. We find out when the vehicle's gonna be down. We fix it, and nothing there was no there was ever never any downtime.

Alex Fraser:

Right. And I think, yeah, like, we get there, it will be amazing. And we actually have seen some tiny pockets of that. We've even actually gotten to do it for a customer, where we called them and told them their truck was broken

Erin Keating:

Right.

Alex Fraser:

Effectively, in real time as they were figuring it out. Sure. And so they never even had to unload it because our guy from Cox Fleet was on the way with the correct part, fixed it, and they were scrambling. And they we got to help them not scramble, which was an amazing one of one story.

Erin Keating:

Sure.

Alex Fraser:

I think when you look at it at scale, the operations of how the commercial truck world works is so intertwined in 17 different things Mhmm. That if the computer's gonna tell you to ground that truck for a day, you better really be sure that you have the thing figured out, you have the right part, you have the right technician. Because if you don't, what's gonna happen is you're gonna really lose the faith of all the operators out there, whether they be the technicians, the driver, the local manager, and and losing their confidence in all this stuff is can be really detrimental. And so some of it is there, and we're certainly trying to bring it forward, but even just getting smarter about how we do normal maintenance. Sure.

Alex Fraser:

How do we ensure we get the right part? How do we do it right the first time? How do we, you know, not have to do it a second time? Right? How do you keep those breakdowns to a minimum?

Alex Fraser:

That is all real value gain for every fleet in America before we even get to predictive maintenance.

Erin Keating:

I mean, I know how angry my son would be if he ordered something from Amazon last night, And that truck broke down and didn't deliver it the next morning like it said. Right? So we really don't understand what's really teetering here on the verge of

Zohaib Rahim:

Every day.

Erin Keating:

The company not understanding that, yeah, what the needs are. Never mind really important things like medications and refrigerated items and things like this. So well, Zoha, just flipping over to you because I know that you actually you update us a lot on the economics of what's going on in the commercial market. And recently, you described the market with rising rates and tightening capacity, but freight demand is not exactly, like, booming. So what's actually happening underneath the surface there?

Zohaib Rahim:

Yeah. So what we're seeing in the freight market currently is that you are experiencing what's considered a supply side contraction of capacity. So you are starting to see a lot more movement of operators and trucks out of the market than that are coming in. So that's really squeezing the amount of supply available for shippers to use. And so that's primarily driven by a lot of enforcement that's going on with the FMCSA and the DOT cracking down on, English language proficiency, on certain foreign CDLs.

Zohaib Rahim:

Of course, there is a more renewed, focus on hours of service, especially combating any sort of fraud or misalignment there from the federal government really focusing in on this part of the industry. So because of that, you are seeing capacity leave the market. And so as capacity is leaving the market, yes, it's led to an increase in spot rates and it's led to an increase in contract rates, but it's not exactly a demand driven, what we would consider a recovery Right. In the freight market. So it's all of it's pretty much supply driven.

Zohaib Rahim:

Demand, especially volumes, are still somewhat muted. Right. Now if you are benefiting from the AI trade, of course, you are probably seeing a lot more favorability in terms of your volumes and your demand. But if you're not, where a lot of sectors aren't necessarily benefiting from the AI trade, especially when you think about what's going on with housing or CPG, you are having some sort of probably headwinds from a volume demand standpoint. Again, supply is still leaving.

Erin Keating:

Right.

Zohaib Rahim:

And you are seeing those elevated or increased rates this year, but you're not necessarily seeing that strong demand driven recovery that you would want to see when you talk about leaving the freight recession and moving it to a full blown freight recovery?

Erin Keating:

Sure. Now that's interesting because that makes me think about, obviously, where the demand would come from, which would be consumers demanding more products or businesses needing more things. So this feels to me like that's that's where we come into, like, freight's really an economic signal for us for the health of the economy as a whole. So what does that tell you right now about what you're expecting from your perspective for the rest of 2026 then?

Zohaib Rahim:

Yeah. So we I think it still remains an AI driven economy in The US, right, when you think about where we're seeing continued growth come from. It is the industrial sector. It is anything related to AI and the AI build out, especially if you're benefiting from the AI CapEx boom we're seeing, especially from these hyperscalers and these tech companies. And so if you're related to any of those industries, you are seeing a more favorable operating environment.

Zohaib Rahim:

But if you are in a rate sensitive sector or supporting one of those sectors such as general consumer goods, especially consumer durable goods or the housing and residential sectors, you're maybe not seeing that same level of benefit. So for you to continue to see some level of improvement, the broader economy needs to improve. And so for the remainder of the year, the AI boom will continue to drive a lot more of that economic growth. And so what if we talk a little bit more about the bifurcated consumer, we're seeing that in The US business sector too. Right?

Zohaib Rahim:

There is some bifurcation in the sectors that are doing really well and some sectors that aren't necessarily seeing the same level of broad economic growth. And so that's also going to impact operating conditions for a lot of carriers around The US. But the one thing that's going to impact them regardless are rising costs, especially with this energy price shock that we're seeing. Right? Diesel prices have now moved up for straight weeks, well over $5 a gallon, and remain at levels that we last saw back in 2022.

Zohaib Rahim:

So if you were a carrier coming into this year and you were seeing, okay, general economic conditions are stable, we'll probably print two to two and a half percent GDP, We'll see improving manufacturing sector and improving industrial production sector. You were probably a little bit more optimistic than, of course, with the energy price shock, you have now seen some sort of major headwind to your operating conditions. So even with the spot rates and contract rates moving up, you're not necessarily benefiting from all of that move up in your operations. You are seeing that that the fuel prices are starting to put some pressure on your event

Alex Fraser:

pressure. Thing that outpaces on the expense side, like, yes, revenue may tick up a tiny bit for the guys that are out there, but the other thing that's outpacing that is the insurance costs, which impacts both all of the folks driving trucks and trailers, but also all the service providers who we work with to help those guys. And so it's I think it's pretty shocking when you start to look into it, and who it impacts the most is the smaller owner operators or the service providers who only have two or three or five trucks. Because, I mean, these are not folks these are small businesses.

Erin Keating:

Right.

Alex Fraser:

That is what they are, is they are small businesses. Right. And so when you look over a three year period and your insurance has doubled

Erin Keating:

Right.

Alex Fraser:

And just imagine that for your household. Right? So if your household insurance goes from 2,000 to 4,000, well, if your business insurance to insure these really big assets goes from 10,000 a year to 20,000 a year.

Erin Keating:

Right.

Alex Fraser:

But all your revenue went up was 2,000.

Erin Keating:

Right.

Alex Fraser:

It doesn't cover that. Right? So I think that's another thing that kind of is happening over here

Erin Keating:

Of course.

Alex Fraser:

That a lot of the kind of just retail consumer or folks who don't pay attention day in, day out don't realize. But then you look up on basically any interstate in the country, and it's like, hey. Did you get hit by a truck?

Erin Keating:

Right.

Alex Fraser:

Well, that's what's driving all these insurance rates up, is there this whole idea of, like, nuclear and thermonuclear lawsuits, which has become a very regular and real thing in the commercial trucking world

Zohaib Rahim:

Right.

Alex Fraser:

Which it just it's just another expense that goes into all this stuff that I think as a consumer, when you're ordering that thing and say, I want it here tomorrow, probably you're just not considering all the costs going into Sure. How did that thing arrive at your doorstep?

Erin Keating:

Which is why I love that we're having this conversation because, honestly, a lot of what you've said mirrors right on top of what we talk about from a retail vehicle sales, even down to the idea that a corporation who owns a decentralized fleet of, you know, operators, if an OEM has to deal with dealers across the board and, you know, is constantly trying to say, like, how do we homogenize the software we're all using and things like this so that it's easier to manage up? And and we know that insurance has gone up for, you know, individuals as much as businesses. Absolutely. Which actually, the small business brings me to to sort of make that connection with dealers and automakers. I mean, we know plenty of automakers or nearly all automakers have fleet businesses.

Erin Keating:

Right? Whether it's just that they're selling into fleets or that they actually like a a Ford Pro or, GM's program. But then a lot of dealers also manage fleets. So what should automakers and, you know, those of those listening here that are dealers, current dealers, or automakers be thinking about when it comes to fleet?

Alex Fraser:

Yeah. We've had some really, really amazing conversations with both the big guys who make big fleet stuff, so trucks, you know.

Erin Keating:

Right.

Alex Fraser:

Also, with the kind of more traditional OEMs that probably a lot of your listeners are used to, I think the one big thing that's very different from a fleet standpoint versus when you sell a consumer vehicle, Oh, your dealership it's hopefully, your dealership's near your home, and you can come get every oil change, every part, and see again in three years. And, like, on a retail consumer life cycle, that checks out. And and thankfully, the dealer and for the consumer Sure. That's actually a really healthy and good relationship. I think for a fleet, it's just very different.

Alex Fraser:

And so even if you sell somebody an asset, and they're using it, the idea that they're gonna come back to you every time for service, they're running all over town. Their job is to keep running. Like, when that vehicle is down, it's not generating revenue. And so the idea that it's always gonna come back to you for service is definitely an adjustment that we're talking through with some of the more light duty OEMs of how do you actually help your consume or your customer who bought the asset from you find service even if it's at a different dealer than you bought it

Erin Keating:

from.

Alex Fraser:

Right? And how do you use the network of all the dealers, which, you know so now you're telling dealer a, it's okay if dealer b services it. But from a fleet standpoint, that's actually what they need because it's not that they don't like dealer a or they don't like dealer b. It's like, hey, man. I need to keep delivering flowers.

Erin Keating:

Right.

Alex Fraser:

I need to keep moving medicine. I need to get the food from here to there, and driving all over town just to go back to get my oil change is just not practical. Right. Right? And so, how do you use the entirety of all that in a way that respects the dealers as independent businesses, but also really understands how the fleet is using the fleet Right.

Alex Fraser:

To service them across all of the, you know, the OEM stores that are out there. Right? Like, this is where having so many dealerships is actually really a benefit. Right. But they're not just always used to working in tandem with one another to serve those fleet customers.

Erin Keating:

So I think that the if I'm thinking about the metric that you might be referring to, is this uptime for my own application? Okay. So why is uptime? I mean, where are the unique challenges for freight businesses when they're thinking you know, we think about maybe how much, you know, miles do we get to the gallon when we're thinking about ownership or, you know, yes. Can I go 7,500 miles now for my oil change or in an EV situation?

Erin Keating:

But Uptime's a very different metric. So how is that, you know, measured and what's what what do we need to know about that particular?

Alex Fraser:

And I mean, Zoha has a lot on this too, but, like, just quickly, like, uptime is everything. Right? Like, it it because uptime equals revenue. Right? Like, all that a fleet's entire function is is to actually facilitate revenue.

Alex Fraser:

Right? And so some of our customers are just traditional trucking companies. So what they do is move a to b. But many of our customers, they might be grocers. They might be moving building products.

Alex Fraser:

They might be moving medicine. Right? They move all of this stuff, and all they're actually doing is facilitating revenue. Right? And so if you think about it from an uptime standpoint, I mean, we have fleets that generally will book out $50,000 a day per asset from a revenue standpoint.

Alex Fraser:

So when that asset is down, they don't actually care if it costs 800 or 900 or a thousand dollars to fix it.

Erin Keating:

Right.

Alex Fraser:

They care about the fact that if this thing doesn't start moving, I'm gonna lose $50 in revenue today. And, maybe I can capture tomorrow, or maybe they go to the other guy across town because they need it right now. Right? Because everybody's you know, I mean, we've just moved to a right now capture. So uptime is what facilitates that revenue.

Alex Fraser:

So it's not about anything other than I need to keep my customer happy, and they have very real expectations. And so that's why, yeah, total cost of ownership matters, cost per mile matters. Like, these are all very real metrics. But, actually, at the end of the day, is my truck available to go deliver revenue when I need it? It's all that matters.

Erin Keating:

What would you have to add to that from the economic perspective?

Zohaib Rahim:

Yeah. I mean, I think Alex hit the nail on the head when he calls it an asset. It is truly an asset for the business. If it is not operational, it is not supporting your business overall. Right?

Zohaib Rahim:

So having making sure that it is able to run effectively and efficiently for any of your business support needs is the most crucial thing. And it's not just general freight where you're moving a good from point a to point b and then bring your truck back to point a. You have food service. You have construction. You have materials aspects that all these trucks and assets use.

Zohaib Rahim:

So you can't just think about it in terms of just general goods movement. These vehicles are used in different capacities, but at the end of the day, if they're not moving, they're not supporting your business, and that becomes a liability. Right? The assets, which is into being a liability. So as long as it's effectively running through, of of course, the appropriate scheduled maintenances, preventative maintenances, just general Right.

Zohaib Rahim:

Upkeep, then then you all are supporting your business. But if you're not, then it becomes a bigger drag on you.

Erin Keating:

So this is where, you know, we might wanna call AAA on the side because we got a flat tire, and that's an inconvenience. But for fleet operators, this ability to get mobile service and and, you know, individuals out to to be where they are in that moment, that's a it's actually a real revenue crisis, not just an inconvenience.

Alex Fraser:

Well, yeah. And I think one thing that most of us can tie back to is if you've ever been on an airplane and the crew times out.

Erin Keating:

Right.

Alex Fraser:

The same thing can happen with drivers. Right? And so if all of a sudden you have a driver who's so far into his or her out of service or hours of service for the week, and now all of a sudden you've got this truck on the side of the road or stuck at a loading dock, that it again Yeah. And unlike an airport where they keep extra pilots and flight attendants sitting around so they can switch them out, and, yes, it's a delay, but you figure it out. There's not just extra truck drivers sitting around And so all of a sudden, this hours of servicing plays into maintenance.

Alex Fraser:

Right. And so and that plays into, if it happens all the time, do the drivers wanna work for you or do they wanna go work somewhere else where they're gonna get more billable miles they can get paid on? And so this whole thing, I mean, there's so many layers to it that I think, again, when you're just driving down the interstate, you just you're kind of blissfully ignorant to it all. And the more you think about it, you're like, oh.

Erin Keating:

Yeah. Oh. Right. Oh.

Alex Fraser:

Right. And, yeah, it's all very real.

Erin Keating:

Yeah. I would think that more people, you know, again, talked I talked about earlier, like, the Amazon truck and the FedEx truck. Interestingly enough, because our economy, as Zohaib was explaining, was like, if, like, transportation is it. Right? Like, I I do think, luckily, I think it's it's come a lot more apparent.

Erin Keating:

Now granted, we've started to take a little bit for granted. So maybe we still aren't calculating all the demands on the on the transportation and logistics organizations out there. But you're right. I mean, one, it's a domino effect, and it's interconnected. How does so speaking of connected, how does connected vehicle data you know, now we know that a lot more cars are software defined, trucks are also moving that way.

Erin Keating:

And so there are ability for telemetry to be able to be analyzed, and this ties into the, you know, predictive maintenance nirvana, etcetera. How does that change the ability to be reactive and and deal with things as a quick answer?

Alex Fraser:

I mean, it's massive. Again, like, to to start at the most elementary level, where is the truck? Where is the trailer? Like, you would be shocked at how many fleets have tens of thousands of trailers, and at any one time, you know, 500, a thousand, they're just not entirely sure where they are. We couldn't see.

Alex Fraser:

And so well, I mean, if you have 50,000 of something, it's not wild to think I don't know where 500 are

Erin Keating:

Right.

Alex Fraser:

Except they're 53 foot long and, you know, all you'd you'd figure they'd be easy to find. And so the first thing is just knowing where they all are. Right? And same from an emergency breakdown standpoint. Now you're not saying, oh, I'm just past Mile 53.

Alex Fraser:

But, you know, here in Atlanta, if you get it wrong and you gotta go circle back around, that could be an hour later until you get back to that truck. But if you know exactly where it is, you can get there right the first time. And so, I mean, location, all joking aside, is a huge piece of it. But, yeah, it does extrapolate out to all of the things you'd think it does with predictive maintenance. Right.

Alex Fraser:

So, like, catch it when it's got a little bit of a stuffed nose before it gets full blown pneumonia, all that kind of things. I think the other thing that it really is starting to have a cool impact on is actually freight theft

Erin Keating:

Right.

Alex Fraser:

Which is a massive issue. I mean Yes. Freight theft is a big business. And so it's a bad guy business, but it's a big business.

Erin Keating:

Sure.

Alex Fraser:

So now with more cameras and more connected trailer technology and more cameras just in general out in the world, cutting down on freight theft is actually really huge.

Erin Keating:

Sure.

Alex Fraser:

And there's a whole kind of social network component to it that owner operators participate in because it's it's really impacting them

Erin Keating:

Right.

Alex Fraser:

In a in a really negative way. Again, back to the insurance thing. Right? Like, this another thing that drives insurance up. And so all of those things can get better, and I think just marrying that new technology with a 100 year old industry of, well, I'm just getting it from a to b, and how do you bring all that together?

Alex Fraser:

It's starting to happen, and and you're and I think the best thing is a lot of the operators are starting to see how it benefits them. Right. Even with, like, you know, there was a time nobody wanted a camera facing them. Right? Right.

Alex Fraser:

I think we're generally over that.

Erin Keating:

Right.

Alex Fraser:

Because, yeah, no, I wasn't eating, I wasn't smoking, I wasn't sleeping. Well, now you're getting to multicam where, you know, even a couple years ago, if a consumer vehicle drifted and hit the back of a trailer, generally, that's always gonna be the trucker's fault because well, just because. Yeah. Well, now if you have cameras going down the side, the trucker can very quickly, like, with that before the police even arrive on scene, they can have a video showing who was actually at fault.

Erin Keating:

Right.

Alex Fraser:

And it cuts down on the frivolous lawsuits. It cuts down on a lot. And so that's all thanks to connected technology, which really is having a massive impact.

Erin Keating:

I'm very glad. I hadn't even thought about that. And thank you for previewing an episode we are gonna have in the future, I'm glad to announce, around the freight fraud and theft and everything. So I'm excited to tackle that topic next. We would have needed this one in advance to help us see that.

Erin Keating:

I'm curious, I didn't prep you guys for this question, I'm curious, autonomy and electric. Because those are both things that are really moving, even if they're not as high or we haven't figured them out quite yet for commercial use with retail, you know, with with individuals. But we're hearing a lot of cool innovation with autonomy and electric in commercial. So any thoughts on where that's going or what guys are seeing as far as trends?

Zohaib Rahim:

Yeah. It's it's definitely coming. It's of course, adoption is much lower than it is on the light vehicle side, especially for personal vehicle ownership, so at least in the retail market. Now two reasons for that, of course, one being just the availability of product. Right?

Zohaib Rahim:

There's not as many products in the pipeline or being developed to support any sort of demand on the medium and heavy duty side. So if you start to see an uptake or more products to the come through the pipeline, you actually might see higher levels of adoption than what we're currently at right now. The other thing, of course, and we've talked about it, is uptime. Right? So making sure that you have sufficient infrastructure to support these vehicles is Right.

Zohaib Rahim:

Absolutely crucial. Right? So if you have an EV today, you'll probably find a charger or you can get something, you know, installed at your house. Doesn't work this exact same way on the medium and heavy duty side. So infrastructure is gonna be an even more important factor here.

Zohaib Rahim:

So both of those things will probably lead to a slow gradual increase in adoption. Again, it it'll take a little bit more time, but we're starting to see probably a lot more development is on the autonomous side. We we are definitely seeing much more use cases and actual real life pilots on US highways today for the support of class a trucks or so the the large trucks to support general freight occurring on on roads. And so almost every month, it seems like you're getting more pilot licenses for piloting programs or more developments occurring to to support one day maybe an autonomous future. And so I think that's where it's very exciting.

Zohaib Rahim:

And this actually goes into some of the telematics thing we just talked about where if you wanna focus on what's happening with autonomous and what's especially what's happening with telematics and connected vehicles and connected data, look at what commercial vehicles are doing, what fleets are doing. If you're interested in what could be coming down the pipeline for the retail side. Because I think what's happening on the commercial vehicle side is developing quicker, I would say, than what we're going to see for regular vehicle ownership or personal vehicle ownership. So if you're interested in that, definitely get what commercial vehicles are doing just because it's so important.

Erin Keating:

Very cool stuff.

Alex Fraser:

It's

Zohaib Rahim:

Yeah. It's business critical. It's revenue critical. It's cost center critical there. So the advancements you're gonna see there are going to probably outpace what we're gonna see just for someone looking and maybe is interested in any of that.

Zohaib Rahim:

Yeah. The

Alex Fraser:

thing I'd add, you can use it in segments within the commercial space. Right? Like, for a for a consumer, it has to go autonomy has to go solve everything. Right? Like, when I go to the doctor, when I go to work, when I drop my kids off at school, when I whatever.

Alex Fraser:

Right? Right. Whereas for commercial, it's like, well, can you make an autonomous robot that can carry it around the distribution center? Sure. Which we know there's there.

Alex Fraser:

Right? Right. Can you do autonomy straight through Texas, which literally happens dozens of times every day right now? Waymo is running autonomous trucks

Erin Keating:

Right.

Alex Fraser:

In Texas, pulling real freight. Right? Yeah. But you can do that. And so while it may not take it to the final mile to drop it off at the loading dock and hand the guy the clipboard with the bill of lading, but it doesn't necessarily need to.

Alex Fraser:

Right? It just does this part. And so Briefly. I think that's where when you think about it from a commercial standpoint, it can start to kinda chip away at it bit by bit by bit, whereas the consumer is gonna look for the whole solution all at once.

Erin Keating:

Very cool. So I I feel like we could talk about this for hours, but I'll just tie it up with one last question for both of you. So either of you or both of you answer, you know, what's one trend in commercial transportation or fleet management that you think automotive professionals need to be paying attention to, that they're probably not paying enough attention to, and and you might see out there, you know, one to three years from now?

Zohaib Rahim:

I I think it's autonomous. I think in on the commercial vehicle side, especially on the heavy duty side, it's developing a lot faster than maybe the the attention it might be getting in in the news media. So that's where we are starting to see a lot more rapid consideration and adoption on the testing front. And so whether it is the traditional OEMs interested in some level of semi autonomous autonomous driving, you also have the startups. And, of course, you let's see what, you know, Elon says about the semi

Alex Fraser:

Sure.

Zohaib Rahim:

And see how that gets autonomous.

Erin Keating:

Yeah. Absolutely.

Alex Fraser:

It sort of answers your question, but, you know

Erin Keating:

Pull forward out.

Alex Fraser:

No rule has ever been there for you not to break it. I I think anybody who listening the one thing I'd love for you to take away is when you see someone broken down on the side of highway, in 50 out of 50 states, it's a law to slow down and move over, and in 50 out of 50 states, it's not enforced. And being a roadside provider is actually one of the most dangerous jobs in America. And so thankfully, in the last couple years, we've moved from once every six days someone passing away in the line of duty, to now we're a little over once every over eight days.

Erin Keating:

Oh my gosh.

Alex Fraser:

It's an extremely dangerous job. I

Erin Keating:

knew that's difficult.

Alex Fraser:

Yeah. And so one thing I would love to see go down, or I guess in this case up from every so often days, is that we, as a society, like, really honor this road space, and if somebody's broken down, give them space. Give them space to work. Give them space to be safe, because it is so wildly dangerous, and we all have these little mini computers that we are looking at all the time, and when you're on the highway, be safe. Because if you want your packages to arrive, if you want there to be medicine, one way we can do that is by keeping service riders and truck drivers safe, and so I would just say, like, the one thing I would love to see, which autonomy can go into and connected can go into is, like, how do we continue to make it safer and safer on America's highways?

Alex Fraser:

Because it is still one of the most dangerous things any of us do every day is get on the highway.

Erin Keating:

My goodness. I had no idea. Thank you for

Alex Fraser:

that I would love for it to be safer for all of us.

Erin Keating:

Well, that's a wonderful way to end there. Well, Alex and Zoha, thank you so much for being here. You know, it's it's not always every day that I get to talk about a a whole other topic in the in the automotive industry that I'm not totally steeped in. So really gets exciting for me. Biggest takeaways I I think I got from this is just that the commercial side is just as complicated, if not more complex than the retail side.

Erin Keating:

And that we're really, you know, glad to have both of you on the case of, like, how can we solve some of these problems? How can we keep ahead of it? And again, I'm now gonna be coming to you even more often to say, what are you seeing? Help me see what I need to see from a retail perspective. It's also just a good reminder that, you know, it's not always which car you have.

Erin Keating:

It's the it's whether your car is working. Right? Like, it's a working asset. I like this idea. You know, it wouldn't be worse if if humans actually looked at our own personal vehicles as assets too.

Erin Keating:

Right? Sometimes we get too lazy with that, but I think it's a great perspective to have. So thanks again for the conversation. Thanks, you know, to both of you guys for being here. I really appreciate it.

Alex Fraser:

Thanks for having us. Thanks for having us. Yeah.

Erin Keating:

And thanks, of course, to everyone listening to The Auto Market Brief. Be sure to like, subscribe, and share the show with your friends and colleagues. As always, remember to check out all of our insights and updates at coxautoinc.com, and stay tuned to the Auto Market Brief for all of our high notes in the economy, the headlines that matter across the industry, and more awesome conversations like this that help us just get a better sense of the market. So thank you both. Thanks for joining us on this episode of The Auto Market Brief.

Erin Keating:

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