CropGPT - Sugar

The weekly report on the global Sugar market for week 49. Brought to you by CropGPT

Show Notes

This week’s episode covers key developments in the global sugar market.
  • India reported a 43% increase in sugar production from October to November, reaching 4.11 million metric tons. This growth is attributed to improved yields and earlier mill operations. Forecasts for the 2025–26 season range from 31 to 34.9 million tons. Despite these gains, India reduced its sugar export quota from 2 million to 1.5 million tons. The Food Ministry is considering higher ethanol procurement prices, which could incentivize mills to shift focus from sugar to ethanol, impacting future output and export volumes.
  • Brazil is on track for a record sugar output of 45 million metric tons. Early November data showed an 8.7% year-over-year increase, influenced by rising crude oil prices that make ethanol production more attractive. Robust crush volumes and sugar recovery rates support global supply growth, though this may suppress international prices.
  • Thailand anticipates a modest 2% rise in output, totaling 10.3 million tons for the upcoming season. As the world’s third-largest producer, Thailand’s consistent growth continues to bolster global supply, potentially prolonging lower price periods.
  • In the European Union, especially France, favorable weather conditions are expected to boost sugar beet harvests despite regulatory limits on pesticide use. The local growers’ association is optimistic about positive impacts on production.
  • The United States is contributing to global supply pressures with revised upward production estimates, while ethanol mandates influence the use of sugarcane. In Pakistan, limited output growth is expected, but government stabilization policies play a key role in balancing market surpluses and shortages.
  • Across all regions, the global sugar market remains shaped by an intricate mix of production trends, government policies, and energy market linkages. Shifting priorities between sugar and ethanol production are increasingly influencing output strategies and global pricing dynamics.

What is CropGPT - Sugar?

Sugar news, weather, pricing, production and predictions

Speaker 1:

Welcome to the weekly summary of the global sugar market for 12/07/2025. For more information on any aspect of this report, please visit the CropGPT website for far more detailed reporting and analysis. India has experienced a significant 43% surge in sugar production between October and November, reaching 4,110,000 metric tons. This growth is primarily due to improved yields and mills starting operations earlier. Projections from the Sugar Mills Association anticipate sugar production for the twenty twenty five-twenty six season to reach 31,000,000 tons, reflecting an 18.8 increase, while the National Federation forecasts an even higher production at 34,900,000 tons.

Speaker 1:

Consequently, India has restricted its sugar exports to 1,500,000 tons, a decrease from the previous 2,000,000 tons, despite challenges posed by low international prices and logistical issues. The Food Ministry is contemplating an increase in ethanol procurement prices, potentially prompting mills to shift production priorities from sugar to ethanol. Overall, India is navigating complex export strategies and policy changes that may lead mills to favor ethanol output, thereby influencing future sugar production. In Brazil, projections by CONABE suggest sugar production will hit a record 45,000,000 metric tons for the season, with early November figures already indicating an 8.7% increase. The Brazilian sugar sector is significantly affected by crude oil prices, which enhance ethanol's attractiveness, influencing mills to diversify production towards ethanol.

Speaker 1:

UNICA reports robust crush volumes and recovering sugar levels, indicating a strong production year that bolsters global supply, but may apply downward pressure on global prices. Thailand anticipates a 2% year over year increase in sugar output for the twenty twenty five-twenty six season, totaling 10,300,000 metric tons. As the third largest sugar producer and a key exporter, Thailand's consistent production growth supports global supply, inadvertently contributing to prolonged periods of low global sugar prices. In the European Union, particularly in France, favorable weather conditions are expected to boost output from the sugar beet harvest, despite challenges like the restricted use of neonicotinoid pesticides. The Growers Association believes this could positively impact the sugar sector's production.

Speaker 1:

The United States, while specific details in the text are limited, plays a role in the global outlook, with an increase in sugar production estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture. This contributes additional downward pressure on international sugar prices, as production adjustments align with market and policy influences, including ethanol blending mandates that sometimes redirect sugarcane use. In Pakistan, a notable increase in sugar production is unlikely, but government stabilization policies, including sales regulations and support price settings, are critical in managing market surpluses and shortages, thus impacting local and regional pricing structures. Globally, the interaction between expanding production capacities, regulatory changes, and market demands creates a dynamic sugar market landscape. The strategic production shifts and adaptive policy measures by major producers drive fluctuating prices with significant economic ramifications.

Speaker 1:

As each country navigates its policy environment and market conditions, the global sugar landscape reflects a complex web of production strategies and policy decisions. Remember, our CropGPT site contains far more details and reports about the sugar market, including crop health reports, twenty years of weather data, and even pricing data and earning call analysis. This podcast is just a few selected highlights for the week.