Subscribe
Share
Share
Embed
Welcome to Humans of Agriculture. This podcast series is dedicated to discovering more about our food system, from the people involved in it.
Along the journey we'll be meeting people from all walks of life from Australia and from afar. Join us as we find out how our communities and our culture shape what we eat, and ultimately who we are.
More people, More often, Identifying with Agriculture
Oli Le Lievre 0:02
G'day and welcome to the in the know on the go podcast produced by humans of agriculture. Our podcast is designed to get you across the things that matter in Ozzie agribusiness in a way that's just well, buddy easy to understand. Think of me as a friend that is learning with you as we discover and chat about the topics, from farm to fork, and even beyond.
G'day and welcome back. I'm joined by the incredible car lenders I'm sitting on we're address country at the moment. And I'd like to extend those respects to the country wherever you're taking our podcast. It's definitely one of the things I love is just how far and wide this podcast reaches. And someone who knows how big and broad Australia is is called Linders. From where the matters Carlos might get a
Speaker 2 0:50
really long time no speak from nanawall country. How are you going?
Oli Le Lievre 0:53
I'm going well, but it has been a little while since we had our weather update. And only last week kind of the trigger went and I go went gosh, I need to get called back on. I was talking to a lady called Erica Halladay who's the podcast guests coming up. And she said, and this is definitely a compliment. She said she loves how real you tell the farmers and your clients when it comes to the weather. So she was over in Europe and she was trying to get away from work but she was saying one of the key things she was checking was the update from Colin does it weather matters. And I said Erica Durbin let calm and she said no. Now I'm getting a little bit embarrassed because I feel like I'm fair a fan of his. Anyway, Erica says she is a big fan. And I want you to know that the work you're doing is really hitting the ground where it matters and people absolutely loving what you do.
Speaker 2 1:41
That's great to hear. That's good to hear. And that's the heart and soul of weather matters to bridge the gap and bringing that extra info and making sure that it's available 24/7 On Demand because the weather never stops and apparently neither do I.
Oli Le Lievre 1:54
You don't and you even hitting Europe. There you go. So the farmers are taking you with them on holidays and switching off from everything else. Love it might since last time we spoke El Nino has officially been declared. So starting off El Nino hotter, drier conditions generally like where are we at because it feels like at the moment and having conversations with different people. So people are a little bit confused. We're talking hotter, drier, but then we had some really strange where they kind of come through the drop 30 mils in places across southern New South Wales and Victoria recently,
Speaker 2 2:29
pretty typical Ollie where we have moved into the warmer dry cycle after the past three years have just been flooded out and a lot of clay, a lot of moisture. And crops basically washed down rivers streams. This year completely opposite. We spoke about that, at the top of the year about a being a much drier, hotter year. We've seen that in relation to the El Nino, but it's the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is currently positive at the moment, which doesn't get as much of a run in the media circles. And that's probably what is driving the dry signal across the country at the moment. The El Nino has certainly been with us since July. That's starting to take its impact across the eastern north of the country from about now through till about March next year. So we are seeing a double whammy at the moment where last year we had the insole region, which is governed by El Nino at the moment was London. Yeah. And so that was why was so wet last year. And the Indian Ocean, by coincidence was in a negative phase, which is a wetter phase. So we're completely the opposite this year. And that's just the way it works in this country. And that's the response that most climate scientists, most meteorologists, were expecting for 2024. So we're basically 23 Rather, we are running through the end of 23 to 24. Drier, as expected, and that's expected to last probably through about autumn at this time.
Oli Le Lievre 3:38
So be a little bit cause for concern. But then at the same time, like I've heard in recent days that we're about to get a cold snap moving across, that's going to bring some really wintry weather later this week and the 24th 25th of October.
Speaker 2 3:50
That's exactly right. And that's the weird part about that is is that people think it's just continuously cold when we have El Nino phases but the rule of thumb I really want farmers to concentrate on is the northward extension of those westerly winds south of Australia and what we do get through the springtime and and even including summertime around Christmas, and we can also get cold snap severe and that brings in the risk of late season frost and so for some areas of southern New South Wales, Northern Victoria, eastern South Australia, there is a risk of frost developing Thursday, Friday mornings across the crop lands at the moment. So that's something to watch out for in the south while we're absent of rainfall. But speaking of rainfall, we are looking at showers and thunderstorms developing over the fire grounds in eastern New South Wales and parts of southern Queensland potentially in the next 36 to 48 hours which will bring some temporary relief that are not drought braking at all. They're just going to be some showers and storms that will just break the monotony of dry weather. So a little bit of interesting weather in the short term but that is not mirrored in what we're seeing or reflected beyond next week, we are looking at relatively hot and dry conditions for the remainder of the nation. Maybe a couple of lingering thundery showers in the east of New South Wales, maybe Queensland, but gee the tropics are dried them Muhammad Ali they are really struggling to get their first season rainfall.
Oli Le Lievre 5:03
Well, I don't know which direction to go in here. Let's talk about let's stay on the tropics. Isn't there a cyclone developing up in northern Australia
Speaker 2 5:08
well to the ACE, a tropical cyclone Lola was named by Fiji NetServer as well and surely to the east of the country. But we are seeing that being a Category five storm this morning. As it goes to air there's a Category five storm, it's expected to weaken east of New Caledonia over the coming 36 hours being ripped apart by upper level winds and there'll be no consequence to Australia's weather. But it does signal the influence of the El Nino to the northeast of Australia those warmer waters bringing the extra moisture and the heat engine room for rainfall all in that part of the world has little influence. So for the tropical north of Australia, we are looking at drive with a continuing DeSales of one to two and rainfall and we're looking at details of 79 in temperatures across northern Australia for the next six weeks. And that's going to extend a fire danger ratings right through to the end of November. Apparently there's a enormous fire in the Barclay which is causing some heavy for our pastoralist. So certainly the hot dry start to summer continue to the wet season rather continues over northern Australia.
Oli Le Lievre 6:05
sticking on the theme of fires, there is quite a few burning is there going to be any temporary relief with some of those falls or does actually come with more risk as well.
Speaker 2 6:13
Comes with more risk because we're looking at thunderstorms becoming more active as the heat engine really cranks into November we are likely to see more scattered storms over northern Australia they will extend down a pair of troughs that are semi permanent on our charts in the West, the West Coast trough that drives a heat engine room of a wy they'll spark some storms, but comes with the risk of dry lightning and that's gonna be a big feature for our summertime in the West. That's also likely in the east of the country as well. We will see some thunderstorm activity in the short term. I don't think that adds to the fire risk beyond tomorrow and tomorrow being Wednesday the 25th fire danger rating I think for the end of the week, we are looking at conditions easing in those regions. However, as we move through the rest of November, throughout most of summer, all of Australia should be on alert for dry lightning and that is just the way it goes in El Nino years.
Oli Le Lievre 6:59
Well there's certainly plenty of headers and machinery and people out in paddocks at the moment I remember back in 2015 new harvesting a paddock and we'd come across it was a pretty dry year didn't even realise that there was a part of the paddock that was just completely black and lightning strike and started to fire Fortunately, that had burned itself out but definitely something which Yeah, can be pretty scary out there. Speaking of harvest, I got a Snapchat the other day Yes, I still use Snapchat have a made up in Durham Bandy. Put lots of cracks in his soil were absolutely huge, bigger than the Grand Canyon, he had a spray rod that he was using was about a metre and a half long, whole thing disappeared down one of the cracks. They are seriously dry up in Southern Queensland they're
Speaker 2 7:43
extraordinarily dry. And considering last year we had those flood warnings that persisted through this time last year and at the top was certainly turned off from December and it really has not rained in that part of the world via the isolated thunderstorms. Really, it's been a very dry season through parts of Queensland, that dry is expected to continue to spend some fire dangers also through the Darling Downs and through the granite belt in recent days to no real relief on the horizon only in the next six to eight weeks looking at the data sets this morning before coming on air. To do this with you there's still no strong signal for rainfall. I will mention though, as we start to see the peak of the El Nino in the December through January window, it doesn't eliminate the chance of thunderstorm activity. And also, just jumping back to the tropics, we also have to look at the heavy monsoon behaves over northern Australia. And whether we do see a rogue tropical entity come down through the inland of the country. Now we saw that back I'm gonna set the top of my head and I'm sure somebody can correct me on this. I think it was about three or four years ago, over MT eyes and our mount iser and the points of the Northwest pastoral were in during a extremely, extremely dry year and was in significant drought through most of the Gulf country. And then we have that row tropical system at the bottom of the Gulf that flooded out the entire region with a four or five day rain event and it didn't rain again for 12 months. That is possible that happens that those road systems can happen. So while we're seeing very dry conditions across northern Australia, the Eastern inland and generally right across Australia, we just have to watch out for these rogue weather events that can happen at any time in any climate cycle. So while the risk is less than 5% it's still a risk and so those short and medium term forecasts are really crucial. Rather than gazing out long into the distance it's those short and medium term forecasts Ollie that farmers should be paying attention to not just for fires, but for severe weather season issues such as thunderstorm activity, as well as those tropical cyclone risks.
Oli Le Lievre 9:30
So very, very important time of year latter part of the for people especially with harvest that has kicked off a little bit earlier than definitely the last few years but slightly earlier than normal as well. Let's start in the West. What can people expect as they look towards Christmas time with the harvest season?
Speaker 2 9:46
Well for wi they're really well and truly underway. They've had a very dry well filling seasonal wet season over in the West. Those conditions are expected to continue there's not a great deal of rainfall showing up on chart in the short and medium term that takes us out through to the 15 day rain Window temperatures likely above average, we are looking at potentially a heatwave developing through Western Australia through the first week of November could see temperatures in excess of 40 degrees for about three or four days in that stretch that's doesn't just on current guidance that's for all areas of the West. Rainfall wise not looking at much I don't think we'll see much in the way of above average rainfall through who away from the northwest Kimberly coast so anywhere away from the northwest Kimberly Coast can expect below average rainfall and again, the increased risk of fire dangers. So just be mindful of that if you are operating machinery in those total fire ban zones or there's high fire ban zones.
Oli Le Lievre 10:34
And then as we come across to the East Coast, how are we looking from Queensland, the harvest following down what does it look like in the run into Christmas for those people who are harvesting
Speaker 2 10:43
Yeah, still pretty dry through much most of the food bowl through the northern food bowl into Queensland, west of the Sunshine Coast really right up into the Cape York Peninsula now we are looking at well below average rainfall temperatures above average, away from Cape York Peninsula. So again, a bit like the tropics, those from sort of Northern tips a little bit cooler, everywhere else is drier and hotter. Again, the risk of thunderstorms not zero. We are looking at clusters of thunderstorms developing through November. So it can just be on the alert for damaging winds. Not a great deal of rainfall. With a dry AMS Oliva thunderstorm activity through the food bowl through much of Queensland into northern Victoria there is a risk of higher with a higher risk of hail as well. But these thunderstorms if they do form so not as much rainfall, the chances of damaging hail but I do think most of the farmers at the moment should get their crops in before we see storms become more of an issue. From mid November, as you mentioned the drier start to October through beyond that rain event through far southeastern parts of Australia has been useful so that people have been able to get through pretty much unscathed, that's fine. I think that'll be the case for the next three weeks. That includes most of South Australia as well. We're definitely sort of harvest into something cutting their crops.
Oli Le Lievre 11:51
And we know that you've shared your the remainder of harvest update today so people can get that by following going to your website subscribing to it. Mike, one other question I've got is so if we start to look into 2024 My goodness, we're there already. What is the feeling? What are things telling you about what we could expect next year,
Speaker 2 12:09
we are shifting away from El Nino that is probably the headline forecast as I'm starting to prepare the 2024 outlooks as we're moving through the next couple of weeks at weather matters not all it just comes down to how long this peak goes for. I think we're starting to see the peak of the El Nino right now in the Pacific Ocean, it does probably persist right through to January and we start to see it waning beyond Australia Day. Now the pace of how it weakens will determine how wet and how cool it gets across the country for the second half of 2020 for the first half of 2024 Pretty rough ride. I think the planting season for most of our farmers, you know, the cropping game, pastoralists looking for fresh fodder in green grass and that sort of thing. And we are looking at probably lean conditions subsoil moisture being quite poor. But thankfully after the three very wet years is a very good domestic and commercial water supply right across Australia. So I think we'll get through the summer time. Okay, it's just now a question of how long does the El Nino laughed and that's the headline information I'm offering at the moment at weather matters dot all the other area to watch Ollie is what does the Indian Ocean do next winter, spring and I'm really talking about that at weather matters.org as well. Where we are looking at hopefully in conjunction with If not, it's a neutral in so region or whether we do go into a London year, which is currently less than 5% chance. I'll just put that on the table right now. We could see rainfall totals coming up right across the country for the second half of next year. So that's how we're looking at next year so far weather matters.org We are looking at a dry start to 2020. For the second half, we could start to see things coming back towards more seasonal condition.
Oli Le Lievre 13:41
Well, we'll keep our eyes and ears peeled here. Carlos, as always, thank you so much for giving us the update. Is there anything else that you want people to know, to share things for people to think about at this stage?
Speaker 2 13:52
I think with severe weather season ahead a lot of people can become a little bit complacent around the drier weather issues that are associated with a lot of people love to focus on the wet weather issues and that seems to get a lot more traction in the media social media. Fire dangers are out across your ATV owning property from one acre through sir 1000s of hectares be weather aware across the fire dangers severe weather season runs through to the end of April. We are looking at cyclone season running through to the end of April and being quite active. I just suspect from February to April. And just be on the alert for the hail that comes with thunderstorms throughout the next three to six months across eastern and southern Australia. Yes, we can be hot but it can certainly hail its absolute tail off when it wants to win these kinds of climate situations. So that could be a posing a problem for many areas in the east and south of the country to
Oli Le Lievre 14:36
thank you mate, thank you so much for joining us as always. And if people want to know more, we've got a link in our show notes to weather matters.org It's my duty. I'll talk to you soon. Well, that's it for another episode from us here at humans of agriculture. We hope you're enjoying these podcasts and well if you're not let us know hit us up at Hello at humans of agriculture.com. Get in touch with any guests recommendations top These are things you'd like us to talk and get curious about. If you enjoyed this episode, please share it with a friend. Right subscribe, review it. Any feedback is absolutely awesome and we really do welcome it. So look after yourselves. Stay safe, stay sane. We'll see you next time.
Transcribed by https://otter.ai