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Part 2 of our panel with Grid Connections guests from 2023 including: John McElroy (President of Autoline), Loren McDonald (Founder of EVAdoption) and Matt Teske (Founder of Chargeway).
Summary
Summary
In the second part of this panel we continue our discussion around the big events in 2023 with the automotive space and positioning of Electric Vehicles (EVs). Key topics include - How Chinese EVs are disrupting the global auto market, the importance of designing cars as user defined vehicles, the many challenges legacy automakers are facing around rolling out EVs, whether a software recall should be called a recall, the challenges brands are having in communicating the value of EVs and then wrap up with our predictions for what we may see in 2024!
Key Takeaways
- Chinese EVs: Increasingly influential in shaping the global automotive market, setting new benchmarks in technology and design.
- User Defined Vehicles: Software plays a profound role in consumer buying preferences, allowing for user-defined vehicles that can be customized to individual needs and tastes.
- Challenges for Legacy Automakers: Integrating advanced software into their EV designs, requiring a shift in engineering and corporate culture.
- Software Recalls: A new term may be needed for when a 'recall' is needed but can be solved with a software update.
- Clear Communication around EVs: Effective communication is crucial in educating consumers about the value of EVs and preventing confusion.
- Predictions for 2024:
- The $7,500 tax credit now being available to car buyers at the point of sale may only have a marginal impact on EV sales due to overall auto sales and how few EVs now qualify for the full amount.
- Leasing options will still be attractive to consumers who want to buy an EV and want to get the $7500 credit for an EV that normally wouldn't qualify.
- With all auto sales slowing down and now that supply chains have caught up, we should expect to energy density in batteries increase as one way for EVs on the market to be more competitive.
- Since automakers won't offer the North American Charging Standard (NACS) on their vehicles as standard until 2025, needing to use an adapted at superchargers for non-Teslas may also keep car buyers interested in EVs on the sidelines.
- Plug-in hybrids will see a resurgence in sales as automakers who struggled with full EVs cater to different market segments and price points.
- The charging infrastructure industry is likely to experience a shakeout and consolidation in 2024.
Haven't Seen Part 1? -
Watch the full episode on Youtube
Prefer Audio? Listen to part 1 on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify Podcasts
Watch previous episodes of the podcast featuring members from this panel on Youtube:
Episode 22: Matt Teske of Chargeway
Episode 14: Loren McDonald of EVAdoption
Episode 13: John McElroy of Autoline
Watch the full episode on Youtube
Prefer Audio? Listen to part 1 on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify Podcasts
Watch previous episodes of the podcast featuring members from this panel on Youtube:
Episode 22: Matt Teske of Chargeway
Episode 14: Loren McDonald of EVAdoption
Episode 13: John McElroy of Autoline
Also if you are looking to either buy a Tesla or even test drive one, feel free to use our referral code.
Creators & Guests
Guest
What is Grid Connections?
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In each episode, we dive deep into topics such as the future of electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, and the impact of renewable energy on our society. We'll discuss cutting-edge technology, industry trends, and the challenges faced by those working to create a more sustainable future.
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Welcome back to the second part of our
panel discussion on the grid connections
podcast, looking at the year of 2023 and
our panel's predictions for what's coming
for electric vehicles in the automotive
market in 2024.
For those of you who may be streaming or
watching the podcast on YouTube or other
channels, my apologies.
I had to record this a little bit later at
night.
So the lighting for this first intro part
and the outro today aren't the best, but
for the actual panel, it'll be just like
last time.
So there shouldn't be any issue there.
So.
Continuing where we left off with our
panel members, John McElroy of Autoline
TV, Loren McDonald of EV Adoption, and
Matt Teske of Chargeway, we focus on the
increasingly influential role of Chinese
EVs in shaping both the North American and
global automotive markets.
We explore how these vehicles are not only
changing the landscape of competition, but
also setting new benchmarks in technology
and design.
Our discussion then examines the pivotal
role of software and EVs.
We examined software's profound impact on
consumer buying preferences, all tying it
to the concept of what I like to call a
user-defined vehicle.
Car design that leverages software first
and allows for a specific user to
customize the car, however they find fit.
Something becoming a deciding factor for
many younger buyers and in markets across
the world.
This really allows them to tailor their
electric vehicle experience to their
specific needs and tastes.
And I think that's a big part of where
we've seen the success in the startups is
really putting this mindset first in car
design.
However, the transition to software
centric vehicles is not without its
challenges.
We shed light on how legacy automakers are
grappling with integrating advanced
software into their electric vehicle
designs.
This shift from traditional automotive
engineering to a software driven approach
presents both opportunities and obstacles
for established players in the industry.
The panel also addresses a pertinent
question in the EV space.
Should software recalls be still referred
to as recalls, or is a more appropriate
term needed?
This discussion leads to a broader
conversation about the communication
challenges most EV automakers face.
We delve into how these companies are
struggling to effectively convey
information and updates to the public
about their electric vehicles and
associated recalls.
Finally, our panel shares their
predictions for the global electric
vehicle market in 2024.
They provide insights into emerging
trends, potential market shifts, and what
consumers can expect in the near future.
Tune into this engaging episode of the
Grid Connections podcast to get a
comprehensive understanding of these
critical issues shaping the future of
electric vehicles.
Whether you're an EV enthusiast, industry
professional, or simply curious about the
future of transportation, this panel
offers valuable perspectives and
predictions, and
You won't be able to find anywhere else.
And with that, enjoy.
And after I was, you guys talk about this
quite a bit about BYD and their
competition, leaving Asia, now going into
Europe.
How soon do you think that someone like
them is going to make a launch into North
America?
Well, you know, we're already seeing
Chinese vehicles in the U S they're just
with, you know, familiar legacy brands.
Right.
But as you guys know, I mean, the Chinese,
a number of Chinese automakers and
suppliers are just flooding into the
Mexican market.
And, you know, they're clearly going to
use Mexico as their entry into the U.S.
market.
And they may not have to pay a tariff.
You know, there's twenty seven point five
percent tariff on Chinese made vehicles
coming into the U.S.
So that would get rid of that.
They may not qualify for IRA money.
but their cost levels are such that they
probably don't even need it to be able to
compete.
So, NIO has said it will be in the US
market by 2025.
Look, they're all watching next, or this
year's presidential election.
You know, if Trump gets in, it's gonna be
a slow walk of Chinese automakers coming
into the US market.
But who knows?
I mean,
There's talk right now of boosting the
import tariff on Chinese vehicles to 40%.
So even if Biden stays in, there's
bipartisan support to keep the Chinese out
any way possible.
But the US market, even though
volume-wise, it's smaller than China, it's
far more lucrative.
You can make a lot more money here than
you can in China.
And so the Chinese automakers really see
no choice.
If they want to be
truly globally dominant, they've got to be
in the American market.
Well, and I think that I'm just going to
say, I think it's going to be really
interesting to see how the Volvo XC30
does.
I mean, it's not going to come out till
probably middle of the year, mid to third
quarter and stuff.
But, you know, I think it's going to be
sort of a telling moment if consumers even
care, like, you know, where the cars they
won't care, Lauren, they go, you can
Yeah, the people that are complaining on
social media about Chinese made products
are doing it on this device that's made in
China.
That's right.
Right.
Well, but let's but let's be very, let's
be very clear and careful about that is
the brands we're talking about right now.
Volvo, Apple, they're not perceived.
No, they're not.
Right.
And that's America.
And so Neo BYD coming to the states, those
are fresh brands.
that's going to be something that they do
actually have to tackle from an American
branding perspective is if for any reason
that perception is different, it's a fresh
new brand that no one's ever heard of,
just because Volvo manufactures a car in
China or just because Apple manufactures
their phones in China, that's not how
Americans perceive those products.
They will then all say, what's BYD?
What's NIO?
Oh, it's a Chinese brand of vehicle.
And it's a fresh brand and they're going
to have that narrative to actually contend
with.
I don't think it's going to be that
Americans are going to go, I don't see the
difference.
iPhone, no, I don't think that's gonna be
out of view in the Buick and Mark.
I don't quite agree, Matt.
Look at sales of the Buick and Vision.
It's no secret that that's made in China.
It sells just fantastic.
It's an American brand.
Correct.
Again, that's my point, is Apple was
founded here in the United States.
Volvo is seen as a Swedish brand by most
people that drive Volvos.
They are not perceiving it, just simply
because it was made in China doesn't mean
they understand that.
Mach-E is made in Mexico right now.
And if you ask a mock buyer, they're going
to go, that's it.
It's made in Detroit.
Is it?
Well, it's an American product.
It's a Ford.
I mean, so this is a brand perception
discussion.
Look at the sales success that the Chinese
are starting to have in Europe.
And I think that's a litmus test for what
will happen in the American market.
Europe is not the United States.
I know, but just look at sales of MG in
the UK or Australia.
I mean, they're after the races.
And All not American.
I
So I think I think if you come into the US
market with a very good looking car with
great technology that is substantially
cheaper, Americans are just going to go to
it.
And if you tell them it's Chinese, some
will.
Yeah, I think a lot will.
So we already see Tesla having a problem
being an American company with certain
segments of the American populace for why
they won't buy it.
And so that to me, again, it's a brand
positioning piece, is those brands like
Neo and BYD need to be prepared to contend
with that.
I mean, that is just a reality.
To me, it sounds like back in the 70s and
80s, will people really buy Japanese cars?
And then, are they really going to buy
Korean cars?
And Americans just tend to go to who can
give them the best product at the lowest
price.
Or if it's positioned as being something
that is actually cool, to be totally
blunt.
I mean,
I had this exchange this morning on
LinkedIn with somebody.
They said, well, why are they sitting at
the lot?
And I said, there's a variety of factors.
But number one is people aren't clamoring
into buying cars that run on new fuel type
they don't understand.
I'm sticking to it, because I think
there's a lot of evidence to point to
that.
But they said, well, then why are Teslas
selling like crazy?
That means your assertion doesn't make
sense.
I said, Tesla is cool.
They don't actually have a freaking idea
what they're buying.
They want to have a Tesla.
And then they find out after that, oh,
God, I have to figure out how to use this
dumb thing.
and one in five buyers in California went,
I'm done with an EV because I can't figure
out how to do this.
Americans, by sake of how they consume
products, oftentimes are based on FOMO or
just this is cool, and they will justify
purchases emotionally around those
factors.
And so, Neo BYD, if they can, from a
branding perspective, pull that off, not
as a Chinese company, but as a flash and
flare, badass new car company, then yes,
they will have success.
But if there is any element of this is not
an American company, in fact, it's from
China, and what is China to us?
Well, then you get into political
ramifications of that.
So it's not as simple as just saying,
well, like Apple or Volvo, they're going
to be fine.
I don't think so.
I think this is actually a perfect segue
to the third part of this, which is
software.
Because I think you're totally right,
Matt.
At least for the short term, there is for
the brands that people know that are
Chinese and they don't even know the
brand, there's going to be a lot of
skepticism.
But I think John hit it on the head with.
Toyota, Honda, all these Japanese brands
that were coming in the 70s, they had kind
of different negative connotations.
There were still a lot of people between
the price, losing jobs, World War II, that
they eventually overcame and are doing
very well.
I think long term, it'll be fine.
But the big thing- That took decades in
some cases, if we're being honest to
ourselves.
But they've got the- BYD is a company that
can make that.
It's one thing to say elusive.
I don't know if they're going to be here
in decades.
BYD has the volume to-
battle it out for decades.
I think they can do that.
They got Warren Buffett coming, baby.
You're right.
So yeah, maybe centuries.
We'll see.
But the big thing, too, then, is obviously
going back exactly to why do people buy
Teslas?
Software.
They don't know that's why they're buying
it, but it's the experience.
It's these now new forms of luxury.
And who does software really well in new
EVs?
Chinese car companies.
And I think that's that will be that's how
they're doing it in Europe.
To be honest, they obviously don't have, I
think, as much negative connotations to
American buyers in Europe, but that's how
they're winning a lot is one price and
then to functionality through software.
And I think it'll take them longer.
But I think.
We've seen this story play out before,
that price, along with a better service.
I mean, that's the big thing, is just
making it easier now.
You look at some of these Chinese car
companies doing like Neo with the battery
swapping technology, I don't think that
long term is gonna take off, but it at
least gets the conversation started and
makes people open to.
a different way, they see it's like, oh,
they're trying different things.
They're an innovative car company.
And I think the next big variable in this
is generational.
I think once you get under 45, maybe even
50, they don't really care too much about
whether it's it'd be nice if it was made
in America or there's the there's the
prestige of like, oh, I have a German
luxury car.
This is fancy or an ass.
I mean, but once again, they're not
fighting in that space.
And so I think this is kind of a great way
to go into the segment,
say around software being the big thing
that EVs and the automotive industry has
to contend with?
Well, software is massive.
I think if Apple actually decided to use
their war chest to actually build a car
and they put their software in that car
and they leveraged quality batteries and
then said, we'll use the Naxx connector,
they would have a field day.
But I think that they're also, I mean, Tim
Cook and others there are being practical
around the idea of like, yeah, we just, we
don't build cars.
That's not what we do.
They're at least being practical in that
sense.
But if they take their approach to
software and put it inside of a vehicle
and it works as it does on your phone or
on your computer at home, yeah, they will
own a lot in that conversation.
And that's where I think that Google
getting into this space, I mean, they are,
I've met with the Google team that does a
lot of what's happening on the automotive
side of things.
The reality is they look at what they're
doing and saying, well, we're building
this the way that we know how.
And if the auto sector needs it a certain
way for what their automotive application
is, they need to tell us what that is.
But the auto sector, candidly, doesn't
know what that is because they've never
been software as part of their core
competency.
They've always outsourced it.
So you have a very capable company relying
on the feedback from another company that
doesn't have an understanding of what they
need to compete with.
So there is opportunity for a Chinese
brand, whether it's Neo, BYU or others to
step in and say, well, boy, we do this
really well.
And if they can package that within a
vehicle that is branded in a way that to
your point, Chase, I don't disagree at all
that if you're under 50, 45 ish, you
probably don't care.
But as you go down in that age group, you
also go down on how much they can spend.
And EVs don't cost $15,000.
And that's totally true.
But I think that is kind of one of the
advantages to the Chinese EVs is they
traditionally are being the most price
competitive.
So while look to a job point out, trying
to get those things into the states,
there's going to be a big hurdle.
So maybe this will be the twenty seven
predictions when we're talking about it
more seriously.
Two things on the software side.
I think I don't know if everybody saw the
Jim Farley interview back.
I think it was in the in the summertime
where he talked about the loose federation
of suppliers and that.
basically, they had 150 different I think
that was the number suppliers all writing
their own software code.
Right.
And it was like, a the suppliers aren't
very good at it and be it's all different
code and they have to try to bring it
together.
And so now Ford is moving towards actually
writing the code for all of their, you
know, components and stuff versus
Tesla and the Chinese right Tesla was
started in Palo Alto, etc.
in the in the heart of Silicon Valley, and
they designed the car with a blank sheet
from the ground up hardware and software
to work together this the software
engineers all work in the same building
etc.
Oh, now they're in like two locations, but
basically, you know, it was software code
that runs everything.
And we've seen CEOs being fired of OEMs
because of software challenges and stuff.
Like they're just so far behind on that.
And then the second point is just really,
you know, just as, as both John and Matt
talked about, what have the Chinese been,
been building for the last 20 years?
Electronics, they make consumer
electronics, right?
Hardware and software.
And when they.
the Chinese government decided
strategically that they were going to
dominate EVs globally 15 or so years ago,
right?
They basically invested in all these new
startups who did what, right?
Made electronic new electronic products,
EVs from the ground up, right?
Designing the soft.
And so it's like where we have the legacy
automakers that are like.
trying to figure out how all this stuff
works together and hire software
engineers, something they've never done
before, right?
Yeah, yeah.
Well, they're using a parts of an approach
as they always have in a lot of ways.
And I think the example you brought up of
Jim Farley and Chase and I talked about
that in the last conversation he and I
had, that was a great moment of just
candor and honesty around, it's like,
look, this is not something that we...
do right now and we have a problem.
So that's nice to hear that, all of the
transparency, but then it also begs the
question, so what is your solution?
And right now, to your point, it still
feels like it's like, well, it is a
completely, it's a transition of their
corporate culture and mindset about how do
we go about building our products.
And that's like turning the Titanic into
the iceberg.
I mean, that is tough.
But to Ford's credit and Farley's credit,
I think they, among the legacy brands, are
at least acknowledging this problem better
than others.
But to your point, it doesn't mean the
application of that acknowledgement is
being...
done perfectly because then you still have
an F-150 Lightning coming to market and
Lauren to your point kind of scratching
ahead of like, why wasn't that an Explorer
or something else that you guys probably
could have sold more of because your truck
buyers are not diving in.
Which is so funny to me.
Yeah, right.
Yeah.
So no, but I think that Lauren, that point
is I think very big and the more honesty
we can see from the legacy brands around
that would be, you know, refreshing, but I
don't think we're going to see it.
And I think there's going to be more of a
very bumpy uphill road.
for a lot of them having to acknowledge
and then pivot and the pivot may not
again, as you said earlier, Lauren, it is
reactionary.
It is not proactive on their part.
It's also what the South Korean companies
are going to do well as well was because
they're much more software, electronics
sort of oriented and stuff and are newer,
right?
They have different cultures and can move
more quickly as well and stuff.
And we're already seeing it with the
just the charging curves on the Hyundai
Motor Group vehicles, right?
They just crush it.
They have the best, you know, sort of
charging capabilities.
Oh,
Well, yeah, the way they've approached it
from a voltage perspective was they were
the only other outside of Porsche, Taycan,
and Lucid, they were the first to say,
we're switching 800, 900 volt and we're
going to do it differently.
I think it's proven to be effective for
them.
There's some gaps they even have in their
software and cars still.
I mean, for my friends that have IONIQ 5s
and EV 6s, but to your point, also even
from again, I think that branding
conversation we were having earlier is
they didn't have really any baggage around
who they were as a brand going into the EV
conversation.
I'd kind of push back on that.
Kia especially has connotations of being
kind of a...
Oh, cheap.
Yeah.
But it still has that with most consumers.
I was having this conversation...
Sure.
I mean, we were having this conversation
right before the podcast, Matt, about the
previous one where it was a consumer who
was like, well, that's cool that it can do
all that charging.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, but it's a Kia.
But it's a Kia.
When I said baggage, I mean, the customers
they've cultivated, that's the lack of
baggage.
They were able to pivot positioning on
their brand and frankly to the designs
they have.
I mean, IONIQ 5, EV6, most people that see
them are like, that's a cool car.
And they've done a good job with that.
I think that combined with their
technology and they didn't have to
reconvince the public on, think of this a
little bit different.
Hey, you've been buying a gas 350, F350
from us for 30 years.
How about this electric 150?
I mean, I think that helped them in some
ways and they've leveraged that very well.
Just one quick sort of follow up anecdote
on Kia.
I mean, I 100% agree with you, but they're
also surprisingly, like I have my best
buddy is like a longtime, high end car
buyer, right?
You know, Porsche's he's got, you know,
Land Rovers, etc.
And we were texting after the Lucid came
out with the gravity, right?
Because he's a big, huge three row SUV
guy.
That's all he buys, right?
And he goes, yeah, that and the, the Kia
EV, EV nine, like, and I'm like, I about
fell out of my chair.
Right.
Is that a, you know, I think they have
made some successful inroads with more
like traditional, like car people, maybe
not average buyers.
And I think it is, it's like, when you
think of Kia,
And obviously, and John, you kind of even
talked about this on Autoline after I was
a couple times about bringing in the
former head of M at BMW, making a much
more sporty brand.
But I think especially between their ICE
vehicles and then their EVs, I think the
EV side of stuff, they've done a pretty
good job of even kind of like how Tesla
did.
Like you offer this car, you have three
different variants.
Here's the sport version.
And I think this all ties back kind of to
the software.
And one of the things that on yesterday's
episode of Auto Line After Hours about
kind of how some of the traditional
automakers are approaching software that I
thought was really interesting was the
conversation about like, oh yeah, we've
always done software.
We've always had people.
And that's true from like a vendor
standpoint, I thought, but the big thing.
to me that's made the big difference is
kind of what we're talking about here.
It's to like the Rivian, it's to the Tesla
that's got dog mode.
It's no longer taking it to being software
being something that provides a function
in the background.
It is now becoming something the user
directly experiences.
It's not like, Oh, I'm going to change.
Uh, this is all software in the
background.
That's changing from gears to make the car
more fuel efficient that the user never
knows about.
It's about making it much more, uh, actual
consumer forward.
And I think that's where Tesla, the
startups, and especially the Chinese
automakers have been very successful in
software, is realizing they don't really
care about sometimes like this software or
this line of code doing XYZ getting 3%.
It's like, oh, I have dog mode in my car.
And as silly of a thing as that is, that's
a new luxury.
And this is something I talk about all the
time.
My wife even says she won't consider a car
now if it doesn't have a feature like dog
mode.
And these are like the new generational
and luxury features that the Rivians, the
Teslas of the world, and there are other
companies doing it.
But if they don't have, and I think even
the auto industry is...
I'm now going on a huge drive here, but
once again, like to Lee, who from Sino
Auto Insights, who we've had on the
podcast and I originally came from your
program, John, was talking about like the
auto industry has now started talking
about the software defined vehicle.
And I think that's a big misstep.
And I agree with them because it's really
about the user defined vehicle, software
defined for sure.
That's like kind of how you build a system
approach it.
But really, if you want to build a car
that people are interested in, buy is the
user defined vehicle.
And that means a good app, good features
for the dogs or whoever.
And that is really what's changing and
making, I think, a lot of these soft car
companies that are having challenges with
software.
And since I realized we're kind of going
over time as it is, I think it's time we
dropped the Chevy blazer bomb and talk
about how they're having their own
software issues and John, I'm curious if
there's anything that you can share from
kind of being maybe.
in the Detroit area, or just anything
you've kind of heard or your thoughts
about this.
No, I haven't heard anything different.
I haven't heard anything different than
I'm sure you guys have heard.
It's a disaster.
The whole Altium program is a disaster.
If you go back two years ago, I thought,
wow, GM, they've got their act together,
clean sheet design, totally new from the
ground up.
I thought by this time, they would be
leading the charge amongst the legacies.
I mean, they're barely a step ahead of
Volkswagen and Cariad in this regard.
And it's got to be hugely embarrassing.
And it comes down to, as you guys know,
it's a 110 year old company.
They have 110 years worth of policies and
procedures that are not stupid.
They're there because they got burned in
the past for something and they patched it
with a policy or a procedure to make sure
that didn't happen again, especially when
it comes to safety systems.
And so you've got that ingrained in them.
And, you know,
This is why we'll see if Doug Field at
Ford can pull it off.
But I think it was smart of Farley to go,
hey, guess what, we're not going with any
legacy person to run all our electric and
software stuff.
We're going to the Valley.
Somebody who's been at Tesla, somebody
who's been at Apple, somebody who started
at Segway.
And that's what it takes.
You need a startup or a Valley mentality
to do this.
I don't care how good you are as a legacy
executive.
You can't run it.
You just can't do it.
It's like trying to argue that the train
companies should have recognized that they
were transportation companies.
And if they had done that, they could have
competed in the automotive industry.
And it's like, no, they were great train
companies.
They were never going to make that
transition.
And so you're never going to have a legacy
automaker successfully transform itself
into a software company, which is
essentially what Tesla is.
John, I'm just curious your thoughts on,
you know, so far, they came out and
divided the company into Model E and blue,
right?
But it's fundamentally, it's still Ford,
right?
Like, and, and I would be curious in your
thoughts, something I've been thinking
about a lot lately is
You know, everybody bitches and complains
about the, okay, they're going to lose $3
billion a year and EVs and stuff like
that.
Well, as you said, I mean, Tesla lost
billions and billions of dollars for
years, Lucid is going to lose billions and
billions of dollars.
Rivian is going to lose billions and
billions of dollars a year until they get
the volume up to, as you said, you know,
it's hundreds of thousands a year.
And then all that investment of billions
in factories and people and getting the
thing going, they're going to break even
and make, make a profit.
like should have Ford actually created a
model E as a true separate entity as a
startup and gone to the capital markets,
gone public raised capital and, you know,
bring some people over, but, but
fundamentally creating a new, new company
and go to town, you know, you know,
Lauren, I thought that he might do that.
And there's two other things that you're
probably not even thinking of that would
give them a massive advantage of that.
If you organized Ford Model E as this
standalone electric company, I think
legally you could get around dealer
franchise.
Right.
And number two, I think you could say
goodbye to the UAW and make sure that you
set up in an area that is anti-union.
I'll bet they talked about that.
But they talked about that in depth and
just couldn't pull the trigger.
It seemed more like the way they publicly
positioned it was exactly what you're
talking about, that it's going to be a
separate company.
But in reality, it's like Google becoming
Alphabet.
It was really more for a wall-street tax
benefits.
Yeah, it was really like for the CFO to
just report two different lines of
Yeah, because I haven't really thought
about it much until the news recently when
they were talking about like, oh, we're
going to do hybrids again.
It's like, so is that 40 or four blue or
is there going to be now four hybrid or
like what?
Where is it?
It really is.
Yeah, exactly.
It's like four.
Great.
Exactly.
It's in the middle.
Yeah.
Well, I think I think we're speaking to is
a big part of the mentality that a lot of
the legacies have used over from a
communications perspective and kind of how
they position themselves to the last.
10, 20, 30, 40 years, which is we are
going to come out with a press release
that is going to show that we are
competing.
And then in various ways, as the onion
gets peeled back over time, you realize
what level of depth was there into what
they were doing.
And John, I think your point about how
where Ultium has landed, I'll be honest,
when Ultium Day happened right before
COVID hit, I had plenty of friends there.
Lauren, I think you were there.
And I remember just watching all the news.
I thought to myself,
this all looks like fluff.
I completely agree.
Like this doesn't look like, I don't get
the sense that there is an embraced
understanding of what this is.
I feel like this is a very good marketing
day.
Exactly.
And I always felt, okay, then let's see
the meat on the bone.
Like what's gonna happen with Ultium over
time?
And John, I think you did a very good job
just kind of explaining the painful
realities of where things landed at the
end of 2023, which is.
And again, the word use was embarrassing.
And I think, yeah, to a certain extent,
that's kind of just how it has to feel at
some point.
And I mean, I've said this to friends in
the industry for the last year or two is
I'm very over press releases.
I don't want to hear what you're planning
on.
I want you to show us what you've done.
And there's not a lot of that from the
legacy side in many ways.
And I think it's starting to just, you
know, if you don't have substance.
people are gonna call BS on it.
I think that's what I was surprised most
about the Ultium announcement was like, I
saw it seemed much more to marketing to me
than like engineering.
Look, it was a message to Wall Street.
For sure, for sure.
All these executives are compensated to a
bunch of different things, right?
For sure.
But one thing is boosting the stock price.
And if two, three years ago you said, hey,
guess what, we're doing EVs too, kablamo.
You gotta pop on the stock price.
And so that's what all that messaging was
about.
But I'd add one more thing to Matt.
I think a lot of these executives have
been learning.
Certainly I have.
As I've dug deeper and deeper into Tesla,
there's another layer to the onion.
You keep peeling it back and learning more
and more.
I think if you go back three, four years
ago, when a lot of these decisions were
being made five years ago, they didn't
know.
They didn't know they had to do
software-defined vehicles.
didn't know they had to do that.
You know, they were just playing around
with digital twins and things like that.
Now, they had technical people who knew
that, but I'm talking about the people at
the top.
You know, they know the legacy business
inside out and backwards.
They had no idea that this tsunami of
technology was about to overrun them, and
they just haven't known how to react to
it.
No, I think you're spot on that.
And kind of what I mentioned earlier, that
four factor aspect of what makes a
positive EV ownership or production
experience.
They really know the inside and outside of
the car.
That's what that is what they do.
But aside from that, they've been
mechanical engineering experts for a
century.
And then they've lumped software as needed
on top of that.
And then they've leveraged infrastructure
from fossil fuels for a century.
So they really, to your point, John, they
weren't comprehensively thinking about it
that way.
We build cars.
So let's get a battery, and we'll put a
gigantic battery in this car, and then we
will make it so it starts.
And we got dealers that can sell them.
And then we'll say, look what we did.
It's amazing.
And to your point, that was so surface
level of understanding of what they
actually had to be building.
And I think that's one part of it.
Honestly, the thing that stood out to me
was the announcement of the engineering of
what they were doing.
I was like,
So many people were like, oh, this Ultium
thing, it's going to change everything.
It's going to have all these things.
And every time they talked about what the
Ultium battery pack was, I was like,
there's nothing new here.
It's literally cells to modules, modules
to pack, and you make a really, really big
pack.
And that's to me where I'm just like,
everyone else is doing this.
There's a reason these cars are so
expensive and all you're going to do is
make the most expensive part more
expensive.
I don't understand.
that how this is going to disrupt or
change.
Like, there's so many vestigial, there was
like so many vestigial parts in what the
Ultium positioning of what their
technology was that I was like, so many
car companies have already announced
they're moving away from this.
How is this going to actually be cheaper,
better, more efficient?
And...
Unfortunately, I guess I was right.
Well, and even on the energy approach, if
we now have an energy wing of our
automotive company and we're calling it
our brand blank energy, whatever, and
people I know from the energy sector and
utilities that have joined some of those
teams, when I've had conversations with
them, they've said, what's interesting is
there's this acknowledgement of we know we
need to be doing this, but they don't
fundamentally understand.
how it fits into the process of what
they're building.
And it just always makes me think of that
old Steve Jobs quote of, we hire smart
people to tell us what to do.
We don't hire smart people and tell them
what to do.
And in that sense, the other problem we
see is, that I've seen at least, is that
legacy OEMs are saying, we need to address
some of these energy aspects, things of
that nature.
Let's bring in people that are from that
sector that have experience.
Well, those people walk in and they say,
yeah, but we're not coming out of Tesla.
Like we're coming out of the energy
sector.
That's what we've done for 20, 30 years.
We don't know what they were thinking and
doing.
We know they're tapping into our world and
they're using it as an aspect of what they
do with their company's core competencies,
but we don't strategically know what we
need to be telling you.
So I think it's still, John, as you
pointed out, it's just this lack of
comprehensive understanding of how all
that fits together in those layers as
they've been peeling it back.
And to your point, five years ago, they
were just staring at an onion.
Right.
Going like, I guess we gotta build an
onion.
But I think there's actually a really good
transition into predictions for 2024,
because this is exactly kind of what is
kind of the reckoning that we've maybe
been seeing in the second half of 2023.
John, I know you talk about this on
Autoline all the time, like what?
Electric vehicles, autonomy, these were
the hot things from like 2020 to 2023.
And this second half of the year, there's
been a huge pullback.
And I think to what you're talking about,
Matt is especially true with the energy
side of stuff is like, let's talk about
this.
Tesla's doing it.
There's obviously a need for it.
Once again, money's cheap.
Wall Street really likes this.
This will drive the stock price up.
and we'll get there eventually and figure
it out.
We just have to get into the space.
And I think there really has been a big
reckoning and we've seen that with GM on
the autonomy side for sure.
And now it's kind of like they're just,
and I kind of don't blame them with how
things have gone, unfortunately.
They are kind of just like slowly just
shrinking crews and all this stuff.
And I wouldn't be surprised if within a
year they don't have it anymore as a part
of their business, kind of like how Ford
dropped Argo.
But that's a whole nother conversation.
So with, oh, what were you gonna say
there, Matt?
Well, no, I think what you're pointing out
is, let's be very honest about what we're
all discussing in the sense that there's a
lot of promise about what technology could
be, right?
But then there's the practical application
of how do we bring it to market and what
do we need to be understanding about how
we combine some of these things that have
been siloed for a long time, if we're
talking automotive and the energy sector,
energy being utilities, for example.
And I think that the way that I've been
viewing it for the last five years or so
is watching a lot of these promises come
out.
developed out the advancement of the
automobile and what happened with
infrastructure around that.
And then outside of that infrastructure
for the energy sector and electricity,
those were just sort of getting built out
over the last 100 years.
And we've got it to a place where a lot
has been done to make our existing society
what it is with those aspects of how we
all live with electricity and
transportation.
We are now, we watched one company
understand how to look at those two worlds
and blend them.
And I think what you pointed out, Chase,
about Tesla being a software company
first, that's kind of that, what is your
foundation of understanding it?
Right?
And I think that the canvas, I kind of say
it's oftentimes, it's kind of like looking
at a painting.
The painting has been painted.
The canvas has been filled in when it
comes to transportation and energy.
We're now asking these companies that made
that happen, reimagine that painting.
And they're looking at it going, yeah, we
don't know how to paint any differently
though.
And then Tesla said, but we do.
And that's what they did.
And so it's like...
I don't know how, I think John, you said
it very well in the sense of these
companies are not going to be able to just
reinvent and reimagine themselves that
way.
And even if it was, let's spin off this
other company and call it a purely brand
new company to avoid some of these hurdles
we have, whether that's dealers, UAW, go
down the list.
Do they actually have the leadership in
place to make it possible?
And I just don't see that the visionaries
that need to be in place for that.
are out there that they can just pluck out
of nowhere and plop into a CEO or, you
know, position to make that happen.
Well, I think it goes to what you said
earlier.
Press releases are easy.
They're easier than ever, especially with
chat GPT.
Actually, designing it is hard and then
building it is really hard.
And then there's that whole challenge of
having to make money.
And selling it too.
I mean, Matt talks about this a lot.
We talk about this a lot.
And the third piece is if they can even
build them and not have software issues
and
and build them in volume.
They have the network that apparently many
of them don't want to sell them.
But even if they do, they're not very good
at it.
Yeah, and that's, I think, once again,
that's a whole nother other show.
One and a half plus podcast.
But what I think is really interesting is,
it kind of goes back to that onion to it's
once again, was the Tesla and everything
they're doing software defined?
Yes, that's not why people bought them.
They bought them because they were user
defined.
And I think that's still the last part of
the onion.
Maybe they're now kind of peeling back and
kind of understanding that part.
No one's going to buy it.
And I think the other part of this as the
final software thing I wanted to cover
real quickly was the panel's thoughts on.
Should a software recall be called a
recall or does it need to be?
Because not even in the case of Tesla,
like Rivian, Ford, all these companies had
it.
It gets headlines, but it has none of the
financial or other kind of impacts that
traditionally you see, maybe it has
temporary Wall Street impacts.
But from a reliability and customer
experience, that is one of the biggest
perks of a software defined.
From the user perspective of a recall,
that I just don't think.
most people even fully understand.
I had so many people texting me saying
like, oh, you gotta take your Tesla.
No, that's crazy.
And I was like, and I didn't even know
about it.
It was literally people texting me about
it only to find, oh, I already had the
update, I guess.
And then after driving 2000 miles, I
didn't notice anything different other
than the images were bigger, which I
think's fine.
But I think that is like.
going into 2024, such a big difference in
that user-affind vehicle that I'm curious
of the panel's thoughts like, should that
now be a thing?
No, there should not be called recalls.
Calling or...
Number one, I can't believe the media's
fixation on recalls.
We don't even report them anymore.
It gets headlines.
You know why?
Because they happen every single day of
the week.
If you go to Netsys website and look at
service actions, recalls, it's a constant
barrage.
And the media sort of cherry picks what
it's like.
In fact, if you'll notice, most recall
notices happen after 5 p.m.
Eastern time on a Friday, just so that
they miss the news cycle or try to miss
the news cycle.
And if it's an over the year update, who
cares?
I mean, you don't even know.
So I'm with you, Chase.
I don't think they should be called
recalls.
I think Tesla and Rivian are great SEO for
a lot of journalism companies.
And so like if they can do a headline
about it, great.
But you look at the companies
I don't even think Tesla's in the top 10
this year.
I had the number somewhere, but for actual
recalls, Ford was number one for the third
year in a row.
And all these other companies that maybe
one of, maybe, but they're not even
companies that have the software OTA
availability.
And I think a recall should be a thing.
It should be called out, whether it's
hardware or software.
I just, I think it is kind of silly that.
it's putting the wrong focus on what needs
to be done.
I'm going to probably be the outlier of
this group in that.
I think for the moment, right.
Recall is the term that the industry uses,
the government uses, and we need to
continue to use that.
Right.
Going forward, do we need to rethink that
term or add a like a subterm under it?
You know, recall software update or
whatever it is, because the fundamental
issue to me is why we say, oh, you know,
like you were point chase and I have a
Tesla as well.
It's like if you see if you say yes to the
software upgrade, it just happens.
You don't have to take it to the but if
the government thinks it's a safety issue,
like full self driving or whatever it is,
it it's still a recall, right?
Or, you know, maybe we use a different
term, but it fundamentally the government
is saying there's a problem with the car
that needs to be fixed.
And I think we're like, I mean, it's great
for a podcast and social media to argue
over whether recalls the right term or
not.
But it's not about the word.
It's the fact that the government has
found a problem with the car that they
believe needs to be fixed.
And so whatever we call it, you know,
it's.
I don't think we'd argue on that.
I don't know if anyone else thinks I take
it.
Right.
And I don't have any argument with that.
If the government or someone has said
there's an issue, that's.
a pretty good reason to change something.
But I think honestly, one of the other
advantages to just calling it out more was
one, just to avoid consumer confusion.
But two, it might actually be a reason to
push automakers to have these software
defined vehicles even faster just for the
potential PR and all these convenience of
not, of like, okay, this is just a
software defined update.
I don't know, John.
I know people have been talking about that
and there's advantage of it.
Do you think that would speed it up at all
if that was?
Oh, look, hey, what are the reasons why
the automakers want to get to software
defined vehicles, which is an enabler to a
user defined vehicle, is getting back to
the SDV over the year update thing.
They can save a fortune, a fortune.
You know, a couple of keystrokes, boom,
the car is fixed.
And, oh, that didn't work.
Oh, here's another iteration.
What did I just hear on after hours
yesterday?
Tesla had to do four or five iterations of
its latest quote unquote recall until it
got it right.
And so, you know, the, the other thing is
I can't remember the exact number, but
something like 25% of all recalled
vehicles never go back to the dealership.
People just don't care.
You know, when General Motors had the
ignition key switch thing, I mean, they
were, they were sending out people door to
door, knock on the doors, please do this.
And people get the hell off my go on.
They didn't care.
That is a much more practical and safe
reason.
But you know what?
If they get in an accident and they get
damaged or hurt or whatever, you bet
they're going to sue the car company.
So just from that standpoint alone, an
automaker is going to be, wow, if we can
fix this without even having to tell
people.
Maybe legally we got to tell them, but
yeah, that alone is why they'll want to do
it.
It's a physical or digital recall.
I mean, really, I mean, it's something
like I agree with you, Lauren, 100%.
It is still a safety focused element of
why the government said we have to address
this.
You know, and so I think that, you know,
in that way, do we ditch the word recall?
No.
But I mean, as we just all discussed, it's
like, yeah, but man, does that get clicks
if it's got the T word in front of it and
recall and all of a sudden, pow, it turns
into how many eyeballs on your website.
I think the other thing, Chase, is over
there,
not all equal across the automakers,
right?
Like, I mean, that's something we can
discuss to revian and Ford brick to couple
of cars has it down, right?
There's still automakers that say, Oh,
that software update, you need to take it
to the dealer and have the dealer.
And so, so maybe there needs to be a third
component, right?
Like, you know, that's sort of really my
point is that it's, it's more than just,
oh, yeah, this like
software update, just click Yes on the on
the app and it's all good because that may
be your car but it may not be the one that
your neighbor owns right?
No, that's a that is a great point.
I've had software updates that have to go
I have to take the car in the dealership
and that to me is absurd but I so it's
like a remote recall or an in person.
Yeah, something
It's all about, what we're discussing now
is the perceived inconvenience or
convenience of what's happening with
related to what is this recall.
If you can address it, and I think as John
pointed out, man, the cost savings that go
along with, we can address that with
software and we know how to do it with
software, that's huge.
But the moment you inconvenience your
customer further, that's the part where I
think the argument is happening now with
Tesla.
It's like, yeah, I wasn't inconvenienced
by this.
My car was in my garage.
My phone went, and I looked at it.
Oh, yeah, I'll download that soft rotate.
Sure.
I'll go back to watching the game now.
I didn't have to go anywhere You know So I
think that's it's that convenience factor
that we're really mostly discussing
because at the end of the day It's still
about making the product more safe or
better for the customer and the drivers
and you know in the end But what did they
have to do to resolve the problem that the
OEM I had identified?
Right, you know and I mean obviously
Tesla's the big one that was in the news
lately, but Rivian Lucid they've had these
same things that
solved over online.
And I think it is, I think to your point,
Lauren, too, the things that to me were
really crazy that didn't get more
attention was the software update Rivian
sent out that then kind of prevented them
not able to actually access the car.
They could drive it, but they couldn't
access the computer.
Not good.
And then the Ford one, which was really
temporary, but it just stopped the car
altogether.
And to be realistic, there is pros and
cons.
Any technology has pros and cons.
And for this over-the-air update,
It's mostly good, but once again, it goes
back to not having the right software know
how to execute it.
Right.
Um, there's also something to be.
Yeah.
One, one quick thing that, that I was
thinking about, and Matt talks about this,
like, I think in his sleep, right.
But, but your question is about language
chase.
And fundamentally it struck me as we were
talking about this, that everything we
we've been talking about.
EV charging, like software, you go down
the list, recalls, etc.
It's it's both for the industry and the
consumers and the regular regulatory
agencies and the government states and
everybody like it.
EVs are an entirely new product category
and an entirely new language, right.
And if we go back to the very beginning
early conversation, right?
Like
you know, I had a cousin walk up and years
ago, Thanksgiving and looked at the Tesla,
oh, that's a hybrid, right?
Like, people just don't understand the
language, right?
And that's, you know, that's Matt's whole
reason for existence, right?
Is like, we just have not done a good job
in this industry.
The automakers have failed at educating
the consumers.
It's like, you know, spend $2 million on a
on a humorous
Super Bowl commercial and it's like, no,
that doesn't help people understand what
an EV is and why they should buy it.
Right.
Like, well, as you're pointing out, the
human element is the most important part
of the discussion.
And oftentimes it turns into, you know, we
hear right now, you know, the market will
demand that they want these products.
And right now, the dealer argument with
the 4,000 dealers that signed that letter
to the Biden administration said, we don't
think we're seeing that.
We don't think we're seeing market demand.
And we're seeing mandates.
And even from a consumer perspective, we
just go to any owner's group, anything on
social media related to EVs, how many
people will you see?
And I think Johnson heard about it.
You will pry my VA from my cold dead
fingers kind of thing.
If they feel like something's being forced
upon them, they will say, mm-mm.
Like, not all, but some might say, oh, I
see why you're doing this out of altruism
or something, thank you government.
But it's all human factor.
They're not understanding what we're
saying, oftentimes.
They're not seeing the value because of
how we aren't explaining it for what it
does to benefit their lifestyle or their
life.
And it all comes down to, are they
believing what they're hearing?
And it is unfortunate that so often,
And Lauren, I appreciate bringing it up is
yeah, the community how we communicate
this even though the discussion of gas car
hybrid Plug-in hybrid pure electric That
clearly didn't work.
It's not resonating.
It's not working the idea of kilowatts to
explain charging Stop doing it, you know
and so charging ports
Yeah, yeah, ports, because everybody puts
on a sailor's hat and they go to port when
they go to like me like, I mean, just the
level of lack of a J 1772 you know, and it
goes down the list goes on and on and I
think that I mean, if we land on that, I
mean, you can build the greatest software
in the world, you can build the best, most
cool product in the world.
But this is where people like, again,
Steve Jobs to his credit, and he was he
was difficult to work for but
He was one of those people that understood
how to take that technology and translate
it into something that you're going to see
value in this.
And it was the idea of we're not going to
build what we think people are asking for.
We're going to build what we understand
they will want.
And I don't know if that's happened a lot
in the EV space.
There's been a lot of that, you know, well
again, Steve Jobs reference back in 97
when he was brought back to Apple and was
asked what have you been doing?
And he said we got two options.
We can either sit down in the room with
the engineers and ask them what kind of
cool stuff can we come up with.
do that and then go try to figure out how
to market it, or we can ask, where do we
take our customers?
And that's what they built their entire
product existence around.
And I think that that's a big problem
right now for how we're positioning EVs,
because it brass tacks, end of the day,
what are we discussing?
It's a car still.
It gets you from point A to point B.
There are some fringe benefits around
convenience, by say, if you can fill up at
home.
But at the end of the day, how does it
change people's lives?
And right now, they perceive it changes it
negative way, even though those of us who
drive EVs can say, it's not actually, it's
phenomenal in all these ways.
That's, as you point out, Lauren, that's
all communication.
That's all what that is.
And it's been just dismissed by so many in
the industry for the last ten years, and
it's just kind of baffling.
I don't get it.
I agree.
I think one thing, I mean, there's a lot
I've learned today, but one thing I've
clearly learned is we could talk about
this all day.
Yeah.
Clearly, this is clearly we have some
interests and passions about this, these
topics in space.
And so I figured what we should do before
this.
We've already broke the record.
I think this is the longest podcast I've
recorded.
So we might have to break into two parts.
But let's real quickly.
To kind of wrap this up, I'm just going to
kick it off with kind of predictions I
have for 2024.
And then if we can just all go around and
kind of maybe give any of that stand out.
Kind of in preparation for this, I was
thinking one thing that we used to see,
like when the Model S, like 2012, all that
time, like one of the things we saw
consistently.
was that battery and EV range was going
up.
Obviously, a lot of that was around
innovation and efficiencies made in the
cars, but a big part of it also was the
actual chemistry and technology in the
cells.
And it's been interesting to me that we
really haven't seen a lot of change in the
last few years, essentially since the
pandemic around the supply chain side of
that.
And I think a big part was the demand.
And now that we're kind of going back to a
point where maybe EVs and cars aren't
selling as fast.
And I even was talking to a supplier the
other day about it that one of the things
that they're now selling this spring will
have the same density for their LFP pack
and then the NMC version of this pack that
they're selling, it's going to be 30% more
dense, energy dense.
And I think that is one of the big things
that we're going to start seeing again is
now that there wasn't just such a crazy
demand to get batteries, get cars.
and that's starting to pull back.
One of the areas that we're gonna see more
competitiveness is probably around still
efficiency, but actually the energy
density and the battery cells, which means
lighter cars go farther, yada, yada.
That's a hopeful, but one of my kind of
predictions for 2024 to be competitive in
this space.
The second, I don't know if it's a
prediction or it's kind of a, I wanna wait
and see whether the $7,500 credit that
will be available at dealerships.
While that's going to make it easier for
people to take advantage, I don't know if
that's going to be a huge motivator for
people to now buy EVs.
I think it might be marginal versus,
there's been a lot of excitement about
that.
And I think it's a good thing, but I
really think it's going to be a marginal
uptick versus like, oh, people are going
to rush in and get that 7,500 bucks, like
a cash for clunkers thing now that they
don't have to deal with the IRS.
The dealership deals with it.
We'll see, but my second prediction is
that's going to be a marginal improvement
at best for EV sales this year.
And then the third I had was, will the
slowdown
of the EV sales, especially by the
traditional OEMs like we've talked about,
pulling back from EVs and going to
hybrids, is that really only going to, is
that going to be a successful short-term
play for the automakers, or is that
actually just going to give, put gas on
the fire to the startups that are already
all bev in, and they can just lean in, and
you'll start seeing Tesla's market shares
start to go up again, which I think we did
actually already last quarter, but Rivian,
startups that are just fully bought in on
BEVs are really just going to be able to
really take advantage and become known as
the EV companies in the space.
So that's my big three for 2024.
And even an open question, I guess.
Let's talk about first.
I mean, so we've got the sending off of a
tax credit.
I agree with that take in the sense that
Again, back to communication, they have to
position it right.
If you show the price of the vehicle and
all of a sudden you say $7,500 cash off
today and it goes from $30,000 to $22,500
or something, that's a big deal.
That's how people perceive benefit and
value and savings.
And how the tax credit work before was
never actually something that people
fundamentally understood and you had to be
in a certain tax bracket to really get
some benefit out of it.
So I don't disagree with you there.
I think that how that's been communicated
is still going to be...
a difficult selling point unless we change
that.
I think your point about batteries and
energy, and energy density of the battery
pack and innovation there, do I think it's
going to come out in 2024 as a big talking
point?
Will we see some movement there?
Hard to say.
QuantumScape just had an announcement
about how they, what, it was like 500,000
mile cycle they had on the pack they've
been testing.
So there's obvious movement there.
I think what we're seeing is we're kind of
stretching the limits of existing battery
chemistry and technologies that we have.
And the promise of solid state has been
hanging out in the air now for what seems
like forever.
And I think even if it was able to someone
could announce that, hey, we've got a
Toyota, we have a 600 mile range vehicle,
isn't it great?
But yeah, when is it going to come to
market and how fast?
And then even when it does come to market,
how does that marry to how you fill it up?
because there's still a lot to unpack with
that.
So I think we've, in a lot of ways, this
conversation is kind of proving, I think
we've exhausted a lot of the really great
talking points that could come out of EV
ownership, and I think it gets back to,
are people perceiving value?
And I think that's a challenge right now
that is not gonna be solved by the battery
technology that exists today, or by
another 7,500 bucks off the car at the
showroom, unfortunately.
If I had a prediction for 2024, I think
what we're gonna start seeing is some
some realities around practical
conversation around what does this product
actually mean for people?
Because there's been a ton of promises and
already people are saying, you didn't live
up to it company XYZ.
And I think that level of coming down to
earth is going to be very real.
But to your point, Chase, I think it's
going to benefit brands like Tesla.
I think they're still going to be able to
say, we still stand out.
And I don't know how that's going to be
different this year.
So this year, I don't think it's going to
be all that transparent.
That's what I'm going to do, but in my
opinion, to be honest.
Sorry to be a wet towel on that one.
No, I was going to joke and say, well,
after almost two hours, that was the
takeaway.
Yeah, that was the takeaway.
Well, let's be clear.
I mean, again, like our last conversation,
not to not be optimistic, but there's a
lack of pragmatism that has not been
applied in these conversations.
The hype train has been going at 1,000
miles an hour on EVs for the last five to
six years, and it's coming down to Earth
in a few ways.
And I think that's good.
can't keep to the general public around
what this will do for their life and they
don't perceive value, well then there's a
stink that comes along with that product
after a while.
And that's not good.
And that's where I always tell people from
the EV community, let's be very practical
about how we position this.
Don't say things that are ridiculous, like
it takes me 10 seconds to charge my car
because I plugged it in and walked in my
house.
That's not what the general public is
asking about, stuff like that.
I think that that's what we're seeing
here, is the practical applications of
EVs, but we need to actually speak
practically to the real benefits.
And I think that's what this year is an
opportunity for, because we're gonna have
to battle
of things that have happened in the last
few years.
For sure.
John, Lauren, any thoughts or predictions
for 2024?
Want to go next?
Want to take it, Lauren?
Yeah, go ahead.
OK.
Wow, lots of things.
So I.
All the analysts are predicting that
there's going to be a downturn in the
automotive market in the U.S.
next year.
I do not agree because next year is a
presidential election year.
And it just so happens that in every
presidential election year, car sales go
great.
I've just observed this over the years.
So it should be a pretty good year.
In fact, you know, December came in really
strong, came in far stronger than the
whole year for 2023.
And I think that's probably an indication
of a good kickoff to the year.
especially if the Federal Reserve starts
to lower interest rates, which, you know,
it looks like it could do.
That'll be an instant boon to car sales.
I don't think the seventy five hundred
dollar automatic, you know, at point of
sale is going to make that much difference
because a whole bunch of cars just got
brushed off the list that they don't
qualify for it.
Yeah.
And so.
But if you lease.
You can get that money.
And so my prediction is you're going to
see a lot of EV lease deals getting
advertised because that's where automakers
are going to try to steer the consumer.
But I think it's going to be a very tough
year for EVs from this standpoint.
The Republicans and Trump, the Niagara
crowd especially are on the war path
against EVs.
And it really resonates with damn near
half the car buying public.
You know, they don't believe in climate
change.
They think EVs are stupid.
They think the government's trying to
shove it down their throat.
They don't think these things should be
subsidized.
So I don't know if it's a plank of the
platform of the Republican party, but it's
definitely a talking point.
And so I think you're going to see the
anti-EV megaphones really cranked up in
2024.
So.
Like I said, I think overall for the
industry, my gut feel is it's going to be
pretty good.
I believe EV sales will continue to grow,
will do better than what we did in 2023
because there's so many more new models
coming out in different market segments,
different price points from different
brands.
And there's a rule of law in the
automotive industry and any viable law.
Every car that gets built gets sold.
They don't take them apart at the end of
the year and send the components back to
the suppliers.
Every single one gets sold.
Now, it might not sell in the timeframe
they want, they may not make a profit on
it, but every one gets sold.
So, as more EVs get sold, EV sales are
going to go up.
Right, I guess that's me.
So a couple things.
Basically, I agree with all of you on the
$7500 tax credit.
I've done a lot of analysis over the years
using actual IRS data on who is actually
filing when you actually had to file that
your tax return for it.
And it was mostly high income people.
And I know the people on the left side
don't like to hear that because it's
talking points.
for Republicans and conservatives, but
fundamentally it's true.
The people that buy EVs and use the tax
credit are, you know, modest income and
higher, higher income people.
And so the tax credit and the dealer
rebate, et cetera, I think will have a
modest impact, but fundamentally people
either are interested in buying an EV or
they're not.
And so the tax credit, I believe, has
always been more of a discount than it
actually has been a driver of incremental
sales.
But I do think that the rebate aspect, the
point of sale aspect will help a little
bit.
But 100% agree with John.
I'm on my third lease of Tesla.
I fundamentally believe that leasing an EV
is better because of the ongoing
improvement of the technology.
I mean...
You know, the, the car's range improves
10%, 15% every like 18 months, 20%,
whatever it is, the, the hardware gets
better.
The software gets better.
Like, I just think it makes sense to lease
an EV rather than, than buy one.
And then you add in the tax credit.
You can get it $160,000 lucid and the get
the $7,500 credit if you lease it.
Right.
So why not lease?
Right.
So, um,
So this could be a year of the market
finally wakes up that leasing is not a bad
idea that actually for EVs, maybe it's
actually the better approach.
So we could see a growth in leasing this
year on the battery aspect chase.
I think one of the interesting thing has
been is like how Ford had the NMC
lightning and the and the LFP lightning.
So 300 miles of range, 230 miles range,
different price points.
And I think that bifurcation is probably
an only increase and that the automakers
realize that in order for EV sales to
grow, they actually have to be more
affordable.
And that more and more people, especially
experienced EV owners, realize they
actually don't need 400 miles of range.
And that 250 actually works for most
people, right?
And so I think understanding
just like you have models that have a V6
and a V8, et cetera.
People will realize that this will work
for me.
Well, I think just to hop in on the LFP
thing real quick.
I think a lot of people didn't expect LFP
to be so popular so quickly.
And it really is the easy button for new
EV drivers.
They don't have to worry about charging it
to a certain percentage.
It just they can charge 100 every time.
I really think you're right.
And then of course, they don't burn.
Yeah.
And we've got you know, we've got sodium
coming, which is already here.
So we don't have to wait for the solid
state because sodium is already in some of
the Chinese EVs as of right now.
And that's going to be a game changer as
well.
But in the interest of time moving on the
sort of the other sort of my predictions
are we
we could see actually sort of a return of
plug-in hybrid sales, mostly driven by
Toyota, of course, because they've hitched
their pony to regular hybrids and plug-in
hybrids.
The problem with Toyota is they're just
not making very many plug-in hybrids.
They're all made in Japan and they're not
bringing enough over here.
I've talked to executives at Toyota and
whether you believe them or not, they've
told me they just don't have enough
batteries.
for like the RAV4 and stuff like that.
So hopefully they get that fixed.
But I think, I know Kia and Hyundai still
believe strongly in plugin hybrids.
They believe that the middle of the
country is not ready for BEVs.
And so they're playing the multi-power
train platform and they have some good
plugin hybrids.
They have 30, 35, 40 miles of range.
And so again, I could be wrong on this,
but we could see a spurt of growth in
plugin hybrids this year, I agree with
John also that a lot of people are
predicting a down year in EV sales.
But I think, you know, we also have to
realize that a lot of people are on their
second and third EV, right?
So we have this existing market of people
are turning in their leases and getting
another EV and that.
that foundation is growing significantly.
So we'll probably see a modest growth
overall in EV sales this year.
And then the last thing, my sort of big
thing that I've been harping on about on
LinkedIn a lot the last six months is 2024
is gonna be kind of an ugly year on the
charging space.
I think we're gonna see a shakeout and a
bloodbath and.
some a lot more bankruptcies and mergers
and consolidation and stuff.
There are this is this is the 1849 gold
rush, right?
And there are too many people that moved
to California to try to get rich with DC
fast charging.
And there's just not enough gold in the
ground.
Right.
Like, you know, like, as I like to say,
you know, we may we may add between 13,500
to 15,000.
fast charging ports, Matt, this year.
Like 60 some percent of those will be
Tesla chargers, right?
And so 80 to 90% are gonna be
manufactured, the hardware manufactured by
four to five manufacturers.
But we have like 100 companies that have
entered the fast charging hardware space.
It just, the math doesn't work, right?
The...
the pie, the pie isn't big enough.
So I won't mention their names because
they're all my clients.
But there's there are several of these
companies that are already, you know, in
trouble and seeking investors.
And yeah, it's it could be a very ugly
year in the charging space.
Well, I think that will be just one more
thing to follow you on LinkedIn about.
I find a lot of the time you always have
some pretty interesting posts around that.
And I'm sure there'll be some big
surprises coming this year.
So I just want to say, having gone over
time, thank you so much, everyone, for
being a part of this and for, I think,
just continuing to come on the podcast and
share your thoughts.
And I think probably one of the more
fascinating just
having even a little difference in opinion
occasionally.
I think it turned out we all agreed in the
end, but just having those conversations
and really kind of recapping this past
year and looking forward to 2024, I think
for anyone who is in kind of the EV or
sustainable space, there's a lot to look
forward for this year.
There's definitely some cloud, gray clouds
in the distance, especially around the...
political side of stuff come up this year,
as you can't even mention, John, but I
think this I think it's going to be
exciting either way.
So I just want to say thank you all for
joining and looking forward to having you
all on again soon.
Great.
Thanks for having us.
Yeah, thank you, Jason.
Thank you for joining us on this two-part
journey looking back with our panel, the
standout moments for electric vehicles in
2023.
I hope today's discussion on the impact of
Chinese electric vehicles and global auto
markets, the growing role of software,
consumer preferences for user defined
vehicles, the challenges faced by legacy
automakers and software integration and
the communication hurdles EV automakers
face in engaging with the public has
provided you with a deeper understanding
and fresh insights.
Our panel's predictions for 2024 have also
undoubtedly given you much to think about
regarding the future trends and
developments in the electric vehicle
sector.
Also, check out part one of our panel as
well if you haven't already where we
discuss the impacts of the North American
Charging Standard and how the rollout of
the National Electric Vehicle
Infrastructure Funds changed the electric
vehicle charging space in 2023.
We also discussed the growth rate of
electric vehicle sales.
and how legacy automakers have been
responding to the sales in the auto market
and also changing where they're putting
investments for different types of
powertrains, whether that be a fully
electric vehicle or for a lot of the
legacy automakers, kind of taking a step
back and reinvesting more into plug-in
hybrids and hybrid technology.
Plus, don't forget to follow us on your
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