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Technology's daily show (formerly the Technology Brothers Podcast). Streaming live on X and YouTube from 11 - 2 PM PST Monday - Friday. Available on X, Apple, Spotify, and YouTube.
You're watching TVPN. Today, there is a chart that is tearing up the Internet about AI adoption potentially going down. This is from the census. The census says that the AI adoption rate, by firm size, they do this poll every two weeks, and Apollo, the giant private
Speaker 2:Apollo management?
Speaker 1:Yeah, Apollo. On their Apollo Academy blog has a post AI adoption rate trending down for large companies. The US Census Bureau conducts a biweekly survey among 1,200,000 firms, and one question is whether a business has used AI tools such as machine learning natural language processing virtual agents or voice recognition to help produce goods or services in the past two weeks Recent data by firm size shows that AI adoption has been declining among companies with more than two fifty employees. So
Speaker 2:Is that good?
Speaker 1:It's I mean, I think
Speaker 2:It's good for your job.
Speaker 1:There there are a bunch of different reads on this. So I think it potentially could be good. I don't know. I'll walk through kind of my my thinking on it, but there's a bunch of interesting stuff in here. So so this like, the chart's going viral because kind of everyone's been feeling that AI has been, like, overhyped and, like, the valuations are crazy, and so people are hunting for top signals, as we have, you know, a month ago.
Speaker 2:Top signal, enjoy it. We put out we got to play the video.
Speaker 1:Oh, yeah. Yeah, the hype cycle.
Speaker 2:It's released
Speaker 1:at Oh, the it is. It is. Yeah. Let's pull that up. Let's pull
Speaker 2:it. Let's pull up the video.
Speaker 1:The video that Tyler just posted. Did you post it from the TPPN account?
Speaker 2:Yes. I did, yeah.
Speaker 1:Of the hype cycle. We will play that. But people have been hunting for bearish signals about AI because it feels too good to be true. Everyone's getting rich, and you aren't. It has the same sort of economic trends as the as the crypto boom, as a few other booms.
Speaker 1:And so people are are are hunting for data points, and this is one of them. But let's first review the Gartner Hype Cycle video that we just put out.
Speaker 3:I think NVIDIA is undervalued.
Speaker 1:Yeah. So everyone's been hotly debating where we are in the Gartner hype cycle.
Speaker 2:It's just some people call it the TPPN hype cycle.
Speaker 1:Yes. We'll give Gartner their credit for this one. So people have been hunting for potentially bearish signals, bearish data points. There was that that result for meter that showed that developers that were using AI coding tools were actually less productive. They thought they'd be 20 more productive.
Speaker 2:And I saw something else. I don't know if this was misinformation, fake news, somewhat real or just anecdotal, but there was somebody that was saying developers are producing more, like, a lot more code, but an order of magnitude more security vulnerabilities.
Speaker 1:Yeah. It's something like they're producing twice as much code, 10 times as many 10 times as many security vulnerabilities. And I know the post you're gonna talk about now. It is in the stack, but it's deep.
Speaker 2:There's post. I'm gonna I'm gonna try to find it, but it's it's somebody searched, like, Vibe coding cleanup specialist, and there's people on on LinkedIn now that are that are
Speaker 1:This is their brand.
Speaker 2:Deployment Yes. Around cleaning up vibe coated products.
Speaker 1:Their brand. Yeah.
Speaker 2:And so if you're worried about losing your job to to vibe coating, pivot to vibe coating cleanup. Yeah. It's a bull market. There's always bull market somewhere.
Speaker 1:Guys, can we pull up the chat on the TV if possible? Anyway, let me run through this. So from the data, the chart is going viral because it's dropping off, and it looks bearish for AI and thus for tech America, for humanity broadly. Everyone is saying, please consult the Gartner Hype Cycle Graph. There is a question on where we are in the Gartner Hype Cycle.
Speaker 1:I have been saying that maybe we still have a ways to go up. I I can't tell if I'm on the left side or the right side of the graph at this point. Like, I've kind of already been through the trough of disillusionment. And so When
Speaker 2:was that for you?
Speaker 1:That was probably 2024. 2024 was was when it felt like everyone was saying AI is so insane. AI is
Speaker 2:so you were going like this in the mirror like the Joker?
Speaker 1:A little bit because, you know, AI is so insane. But then, you know, you go back to the ChatGPT moment that was 2023, Waymo, you know, really, like, rolling out to general Okay. That was 2023. There there there wasn't as much There was a lot of hype, but there wasn't as much, like, actual It felt like. It felt I don't know.
Speaker 1:So maybe now we're We
Speaker 2:five didn't thousand AI agents for blank.
Speaker 1:I don't know. Just as I process the last few weeks, I feel like I'm climbing up the slope of enlightenment. Don't feel like
Speaker 2:Satya posting falling down. Red posting and showing how he's getting value across
Speaker 1:the like the plateau of productivity. Like That that's plateauing.
Speaker 2:And we're very productive.
Speaker 1:Exactly. And and even the narrative of, oh, is AI progress plateauing? That's not is it going to crash? Yeah. That's not the trough of disillusionment.
Speaker 1:That's the plateau of productivity. So anyway, people love to, you know, give their takes. Anyway.
Speaker 2:I think the I think the real an interesting study. I'm I'm sure there'd be flaws with it. But but if you went to companies and you'd say like, much would I have to pay you to not use AI for the next twelve months across your entire company? Yeah. I I think you could argue that like in engineering org specifically in terms of like things like fraud detection and and areas that, there's probably a lot of money.
Speaker 2:But it's very possible that in certain organizations but then but then you had the question of like, okay, does trans you know, does like sales call transcription count as AI? Right?
Speaker 1:Well, I will tell you, Jordy, because 90% of American businesses told the census that they do not use AI at all, including transcription. Transcription.
Speaker 2:So they would take a lot of money to
Speaker 1:They would take a dollar.
Speaker 2:They take a dollar to
Speaker 1:They would take any amount of money because it's all net positive. But there's a lot going on in this data that we should run through. So
Speaker 2:And I thought I thought I thought people didn't trust data from census.
Speaker 1:Well, yeah, the the R. Carazian has a good a good take about the size of the dataset and how spend and where AI is actually having an impact. We'll run through that. But so first off, small firms haven't declined even by this metric. So if you're a firm that has one to four employees, you're a very small firm, you're still increasing in in AI adoption.
Speaker 1:Yep. Should we switch over to these?
Speaker 2:By the way, guys, we are testing some new some microphones. New We're trying to make walk around the old
Speaker 1:The boys wanted the the mics back. They're coming back hot.
Speaker 2:Dan, can't top till Dwarke has ships ships his book.
Speaker 1:He dirty he already shipped his book. I thought I I I got a preview. It was yeah. That doesn't make any sense. I don't know.
Speaker 1:Dwarke has his book?
Speaker 2:It's released?
Speaker 1:Oh, yeah. Yeah. That that came out on on on straight press. Like, we had him on the day it was, like, on sale. Right?
Speaker 1:Uh-huh. Oh, maybe it hasn't shipped, but I got an advanced copy. I printed it out. Maybe maybe it hasn't fully, like, actually delivered. But the first time we had him on the show was because
Speaker 2:of Yeah. It's still a preorder on Still a preorder on
Speaker 1:Amazon. Oh, it's a preorder. Okay. So
Speaker 2:It's gonna be released on October 8. So Yeah. Market NVIDIA. Please don't nuke until you'll Dora Cash can get the book out.
Speaker 1:Yeah. So the main headline number in this census data set is that firms with over 250 employees are declining in their self reported AI usage. It's not a huge drop. It when it goes from, like, 12% 14% to 12%, it's a little blip, but the chart does look scary. We can pull it up.
Speaker 1:It's like the third slide. So I think what's going on here is the following. Small firms see bottom up adoption of AI tools. Like, can I literally directly use ChatGPT for this? Like, you've run a two person company at various times.
Speaker 1:A lot of times, you're just thinking, okay. I gotta I gotta select an accountant or something. Like, let me, like, ChatGPT. Right? And and and and this kind of bottom up adoption just happens very naturally.
Speaker 1:Whereas if you're in a larger firm, you're gonna get sold on some crazy AI transformation.
Speaker 2:Mumbo jumbo.
Speaker 1:Needs a whole training program. And is everyone up to day up to speed at the same time? You need a bunch of consultants, and they sort of misunderstand what AI even is, and they fall into a bunch of weird analogies. Like, we'll hire a 100 AI agents. And, like, that's very different from just, hey.
Speaker 1:Google exists. ChatGPT exists. We expect you to use both at this company. And so this is where I thought the data was really, really, really weird because if you look at the data for ChatGPT adoption, we're way off of what this 10% number is for for business adoption of AI tooling. So the so this this data says that about 10% of companies are using AI at all at work, which is crazy because there was a data point back in March that said 52% of US adults use AI large language models like ChatGPT.
Speaker 1:So think about what that means. It means, like, out of a 100,000,000 Americans, there's a 100,000,000 Americans that that are like, yeah. I use AI tools. Like, there's maybe 200,000,000 adult Americans or something. There's 340 total Americans.
Speaker 1:But let's call it let's call it a 100,000,000 Americans that are using AI tools just like
Speaker 2:ChatGPT Americans.
Speaker 1:Yeah. ChatGPT Amer what kind of Americans? The Chatty PT Americans. And then 80,000,000 of those are just like, no. Not at work, though.
Speaker 1:That makes no sense. Yeah. That makes zero sense. And so
Speaker 2:It doesn't work like that.
Speaker 1:There's gotta be something weird going on with this data, and I think it's a matter of the definition. And so the census defines AI is makes no sense that 10% of companies would fit this definition.
Speaker 2:What did
Speaker 3:what did
Speaker 2:you said Ara at Ramp
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Was chiming in on this?
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. He he has a post in the in the deck. Yeah. So the definition
Speaker 2:Yeah. He says these sample sizes are extremely small for these large firm breakouts, extremely volatile survey to survey, which is why he's using the six survey moving average. Business AI adoption is back up in the most recent read. So I feel like that's important. I yeah.
Speaker 2:It's one of those things. I feel like payments providers like like Ramp, right, would would have better insight here. Just like obviously, Ramp is a sample of companies in The United States, but it's at a scale now where they could see like, okay. What percentage of companies are paying for any type of AI products? Yep.
Speaker 2:That's better than are you adopt are you using more or less AI than you were last time?
Speaker 1:Yes. Yes. The the question is like how power law distributed is it. Right? And then
Speaker 2:So so the ramp estimate of share of US businesses with paid subscriptions to AI models, platforms, and tools Yes. Is 43%.
Speaker 1:43%.
Speaker 2:The US government's estimate is 8%.
Speaker 1:This data is weird. Right? Also, like, look at listen to how broad this definition of, like, are you using AI at your business. It's anything in this list. If you're using any of these buzzwords, you count as an AI user.
Speaker 1:So it should be very high based on this. Machine learning, natural language processing, virtual agents, predictive analytics. Predictive analytics, literally just like a linear regression forecast of, like, oh, we did 1,000,000, then 2,000,000, then 4,000,000. Looks like we're growing exponentially. Next year, we're predicting that we're gonna do 8,000,000.
Speaker 1:That counts as AI, which is ridiculous.
Speaker 2:Legend out there that doesn't that doesn't do any of that mumbo jumbo.
Speaker 1:Yes. Yeah. Exactly.
Speaker 2:Maybe they're just considering it. They're doing it in their heads, so it's like organic intelligence.
Speaker 1:So yeah. Seriously. I mean, it's in you can do that in a spreadsheet. Machine vision, voice recognition, decision making systems, data analytics. Just if you're using data analytics at your business, not even like Julius.
Speaker 1:Powdered. No. No. That would be the next step. Just just if you're analyzing data, you count.
Speaker 1:And the last one is image processing. If you're processing images, that counts as AI. And so that's basically any SaaS tool. Like, any consumer LLM product used by employees should count, and it should be really easy to fulfill this this definition. I'm thinking of, like, if you're using RAMP obviously when you scan a picture of a receipt, that uses image processing.
Speaker 1:Your business is So technically you're telling
Speaker 2:me the people that are responsible for the Department of Motor Vehicles are getting into measuring the usage of AI Yeah. In the workplace and we should all
Speaker 1:This is incredibly botched. It's incredibly botched. Say it back
Speaker 4:to me.
Speaker 2:But it but it but it's it's it is really funny because one post like this
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:It's a timeline and you have people like Daniel just saying it's over. Obviously, he's joking.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Runs the hype.
Speaker 1:Runs the app. I mean, it's over.
Speaker 2:He's having fun. But I am I am very interested to see the results of of hype, hype.tbpnyes..com.
Speaker 1:Go go fill it out, please. Hype.tbpn. So I was trying to dig into this more and was wondering, like, is this chart bearish? And I don't think so. I think that there's a big shift that's gonna happen.
Speaker 1:The number of business owners who pick up the call from the census and actually say, yes. I'm using AI. That will go down, but the real number will actually go up. So if you're using Stripe, there's a machine learn there's machine learning running under the hood to do fraud detection. So you are an AI user, but it's happening at a different layer in the stack.
Speaker 1:Yep. If you use Ramp, our sponsor, save time and money. Go to ramp.com. When you scan a photo of your receipt, that is processed using AI, but you aren't thinking about yourself as like an AI user. You're just using software that happens to be AI enabled.
Speaker 1:And the same thing will happen, you know, with your email. Like, doesn't matter what email client you use. You could use you could use Google Apps. You could use Outlook. Like, there's going to be AI baked in there.
Speaker 1:You're going to be an AI user. When even when you just go to Google, you're gonna see search overviews that are LLM powered. You're gonna be using ChatGPT. Like, AI is going to be 100% used, and yet everyone will say, no. I don't use AI at my company because I'm not an AI company.
Speaker 1:And there's this weird I
Speaker 2:use SaaS?
Speaker 1:Yeah. I use I use software, basically. It's like it's like, are you specifically a a software company?
Speaker 2:And that's and that's and that's part of the way that people have been waking up recently being like, wait, AI is SaaS? Yeah. And it's like, has has been.
Speaker 1:It's the same thing with like like non relational databases or like in memory cache.
Speaker 2:AI had to become SaaS in order to destroy it.
Speaker 1:Really, really did. And so I think AI is gonna seep into every crack of the small business data of small business day to day operations, but the operator won't be proudly telling the census worker, I'm all in on AI for much longer. I think that trend will continue, and less and less people will be saying, I have adopted AI, even though they will have, which is just a weird which is a weird dynamic. But it certainly it certainly tracks.
Speaker 5:So I'm Bora. This
Speaker 6:is Jerry.
Speaker 5:We're cofounders of Reacher. And the outfits are because we help brands reach more creators
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 5:And make viral content
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 5:To help them reach more people.
Speaker 1:How how you do that? Like, what is the actual product?
Speaker 7:Yeah. So we build AI agents to help brands find the right creators
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 7:Personalize the outreach.
Speaker 3:Okay.
Speaker 7:Get them to respond and pay them, and then also generate scripts and hooks so that they can make viral content.
Speaker 1:We have some lightning round questions. Favorite entrepreneur. What you got? Oh. You go?
Speaker 1:You can say anybody. Yeah. I know. Could be just a buddy
Speaker 7:of say Elon, but I think it's Jensen.
Speaker 1:Jensen. There we go. Yeah. The first Jensen. Let's start counting them up.
Speaker 8:Well, I'm Bruno. We're building Gauss, personal AI investment analyst for retail investors.
Speaker 1:Oh, interesting.
Speaker 8:We B to C. If you invest in stocks, you're welcome to join our platform.
Speaker 1:Yeah. I mean, there's been a ton of moves in the in the retail world, tons of meme stocks going on. Yeah. Is this gonna help me find the next great meme stock or avoid getting caught up in the meme stock Yeah. Stuff?
Speaker 1:Is it more for the retail investor who doesn't wanna get burned or the retail investor Can I tell the
Speaker 2:lot to not make mistakes?
Speaker 8:Exactly. That's actually our number one use case. We want retail investors to make less emotional mistakes.
Speaker 1:Emotional
Speaker 8:mistakes. Right now, we're focusing on thesis driven investors, so not the the meme stock buyers. So you have a clear thesis. You wanna monitor the market, but you're a busy professional. You don't have time to keep
Speaker 9:track of
Speaker 8:everything that's happening. We can find opportunities. You know, you connect your portfolio to
Speaker 4:us Okay.
Speaker 8:And we can start giving tailored advice.
Speaker 1:Favorite entrepreneur? We've been asking everyone who comes to mind throughout history.
Speaker 8:I have to say David Velez from NewBank. He's an inspiration for me. He challenged, you know, the most traditional industry in Brazil. Yeah. Big banks, and he managed to create a a generational company.
Speaker 8:Fantastic. I really like him.
Speaker 1:Introduce yourselves. Who are you? What are you building?
Speaker 10:Cool. So my name is Jason Cornelius. This is Steve.
Speaker 11:Hey. What's up, guys? Steve with Perseus Defense.
Speaker 1:What's up?
Speaker 10:And we're building 16 inch missiles to shoot down drones.
Speaker 1:16 inch missiles
Speaker 2:to shoot down drones. Okay.
Speaker 1:What what yeah. What what like, do we not have 16 We shouldn't
Speaker 2:have that one.
Speaker 1:Do we not have 16 inch missiles in the arsenal currently? Is this something that's like like we're familiar with like the Patriot and then the Bullet.
Speaker 2:How much do they cost and how do you fire them?
Speaker 10:Yeah. It's a
Speaker 12:good question.
Speaker 10:So there are some existing solutions for like the counter UAS problem, right?
Speaker 2:Yep. See Walk the solutions. For sure. So there's,
Speaker 10:you know, electronic warfare. Sure. Yeah. So GPS jamming
Speaker 2:Which is utter Unreliable.
Speaker 10:Right? There's there's easy ways to defeat them. You know, you can make a more advanced drone and this is what And
Speaker 2:then you have the fiber optic cables
Speaker 10:fiber optics. Feeding some of those solutions that we have. Yeah. And then there's like the Death Star laser beam Mhmm. Which is very expensive, immobile, very heavy, requires a lot of power.
Speaker 10:There's AI machine guns. Yep. So like there's a million solutions.
Speaker 6:We were
Speaker 1:Is there anybody that does that?
Speaker 2:ACS.
Speaker 1:ACS. Got it on the truck.
Speaker 10:Yeah. And so there's some really good solutions out there for different use cases and then we
Speaker 2:need more.
Speaker 10:Yeah. We we need more and they all have pros and cons and they have like a layered. So some of them like ACS is very short range. Some of them like a Patriot is very long range. And so we looked at it, who's gonna fill this gap that's in between when we don't wanna spend a $10,000,000 missile to shoot it at 10 miles away Yep.
Speaker 10:But we also don't want it to get so close to us that it's right on top
Speaker 2:of us. So what's range? It's a 16 inch missile Half mile. Half mile.
Speaker 1:Half Lightning a round. Favorite entrepreneur. Who do you look to for advice or, or as a role model?
Speaker 11:We're looking at Dino at Cyronic right now and trying to match that growth trajectory that they're having a lot.
Speaker 1:Introduce yourself for the stream. Who are you? What are
Speaker 3:you building?
Speaker 13:Yeah. I'm Pranav. Nice to We're building Meteor and this is Pranav. AI native browser that's gonna kill Google Chrome.
Speaker 1:Oh, okay. We got the browser wars going.
Speaker 2:Let's go. Yeah. That's fire. Okay. Browser wars.
Speaker 2:You guys going after Comet too?
Speaker 13:Yeah. Absolutely. Everyone.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Okay. Absolutely. Well well, what's the plan? I mean, everyone has installed Chrome at this point.
Speaker 1:Everyone runs it. It's so hard to rip it out. How do you how do you create a solution that's 10x better?
Speaker 13:Yeah. Well, I mean, we all spend seven or eight hours every day on our browser. Right? We spend we do most of our work on the browser.
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 13:Right? Most of it is redundant work. Yep. We're saying we can automate all of that away.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 13:Right? We're saying we want AI we want to spawn AI agents that work with you Mhmm. As your copilot to the web Mhmm. That can do your work for you so you don't have to waste your seven, eight hours.
Speaker 1:Okay. But but but like what does that look like as I use the product? How do you pitch it to somebody who says Chrome works well enough for me?
Speaker 13:Right. Chrome does work well enough for you if you're okay wasting many hours a day.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 13:What we're saying is we're gonna need time savings. Yeah. It's sort of like people pay thousands of dollars for personal assistance. Sure. Right?
Speaker 13:People pay thousands of dollars for employees to hire auto like to create automations.
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 13:We're saying we wanna create virtual employees
Speaker 3:Sure.
Speaker 13:That run on your browser. Yeah. Right? And that's Meteor. So, like, let's say you wanna handle your calendar.
Speaker 1:Sure.
Speaker 13:Right? Just automate all, meeting creation, you know, based on your your emails.
Speaker 1:Who's your favorite entrepreneur?
Speaker 13:It's gotta be Steve Jobs.
Speaker 1:Steve Jobs. Yeah. Okay. Introduce yourself and the company.
Speaker 14:Cool. I'm Has Hubbell. I'm the founder of Pally. We're bringing every contact and every conversation from every platform into one place
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 14:And using AI to help you keep track.
Speaker 1:Who's your favorite entrepreneur who you're learning a lot from?
Speaker 14:My favorite entrepreneur of all time Yeah. Actually would be, like, Richard Branson.
Speaker 1:Oh. And
Speaker 14:here's a fun story. So when I was I dropped out
Speaker 15:of high school
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 14:And I remember when I was, like, 14, 15, speaking to my mom mom about this, I pointed to him as someone who was successful who dropped out.
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Did he drop out of high school though? Yeah. Oh, wow.
Speaker 14:And then ten years later, I was invited to spend a week on his island with him.
Speaker 1:No way.
Speaker 14:Not good. And I spent actually time with him on And Necker so it was like a very cool full circle moment. Totally. He's been a great great like mentor over the
Speaker 3:years.
Speaker 1:That's amazing. That's amazing. Introduce yourself. What do you do?
Speaker 12:Yeah. My name is Peter. I'm the CEO of MCPUs. Okay. We help people use MCPUs, of course.
Speaker 12:Okay. We have open source dev tools and infrastructure.
Speaker 1:I was gonna say, what's the open source strategy?
Speaker 12:Yeah. Open source, I mean, is a no brainer.
Speaker 2:The strategy is to open source.
Speaker 1:Yes. Yes.
Speaker 12:Yes. Everything is free.
Speaker 1:Okay. Everything's free and then there's probably GitHub repo that's growing and some measured by stars or something
Speaker 12:like that. K stars.
Speaker 2:So there
Speaker 1:we go. I know it. We got here for seven k stars. Congrats. And then, at some point, do you wanna be more like Red Hat Linux?
Speaker 1:Like, who are you looking to in terms of well run? Is it GitLab? Supabase. Supabase. Yeah.
Speaker 1:Okay. Breakdown. Yeah. How will their business model look like yours?
Speaker 12:Yeah. Because they they have a bottom up approach. They get developers, and then those developers introduce inside the company the
Speaker 1:tool. Sure.
Speaker 12:And I love it.
Speaker 1:Who is your favorite entrepreneur or someone in business that you look up to?
Speaker 12:Yeah. Brian Chesky,
Speaker 16:I think.
Speaker 1:Brian Chesky.
Speaker 2:There we
Speaker 1:go. Introduce yourself for the stream. Who are you? What do do? What are
Speaker 17:I'm Anmol. I'm the CEO of Clozera and we build AI agents for commercial real
Speaker 1:Oh, okay. Nice. Big industry. Huge industry. What part of the commercial real estate stack?
Speaker 1:The actual transaction? Do you sit on the buyer side, the seller side?
Speaker 17:Like Yeah. That's a great question.
Speaker 1:Administration? There's so much to that in commercial real estate.
Speaker 17:Exactly. It's a huge industry. Yeah. So, yeah, my co founder and I, our families actually grew up, in the commercial real estate space. Okay.
Speaker 17:Both our families are developers. Cool.
Speaker 2:But Thank you. Let's hear
Speaker 1:it for the developer building. We like developers. Developers. It's time to build.
Speaker 2:Developers. Usually say that in a different context. Exactly.
Speaker 17:Yeah. But, yeah, we we kind of did a survey of the whole market and we realized actually the most insane amount of manual, tedious, boring work that, of course, can be automated with AI agents, is actually done by brokerages. So that's where we decided to focus.
Speaker 1:Favorite entrepreneur? Someone you look up to?
Speaker 17:I think, you know, classic answer, definitely Steve Jobs. Like, reading that biography in middle school is, like, what got me Yeah. To wanna move to the valley, go to Stanford, DYC.
Speaker 1:The Walter Isaacson book. Exactly. Yeah. Book. Introduce yourself for the stream.
Speaker 1:Alright. Who are you? What are you building? How's your day going?
Speaker 18:Yeah. Hi. Do I look at you or do I look at want. Okay. I'm
Speaker 1:gonna look at you. Fantastic.
Speaker 18:I'm Anson. We're building normal, and we're automating hardware testing and compliance.
Speaker 1:Hardware testing and compliance. Any specific verticals? Are we talking like semiconductors, rockets, spaceships, cars?
Speaker 18:Yeah. Yeah. We're starting with, like, robotics and drones and Okay. Other any electrical components that have, like, a radio
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 18:Part to it.
Speaker 1:So Yeah.
Speaker 18:That's mostly it.
Speaker 1:Who is your favorite entrepreneur? Someone you look up to? Can be anyone.
Speaker 18:Favorite founder?
Speaker 1:Favorite founder.
Speaker 19:Can I say
Speaker 18:Throughout history? Anyway. Sir sir John a McDonald.
Speaker 1:Who's that?
Speaker 18:First prime minister of Canada.
Speaker 2:Okay. Yeah. Wow. Started did
Speaker 1:he did he start Canada? Started Canada. Yeah. I I this is something about American. I don't know if I can fully endorse it, but it's it's outside the box, and I appreciate it for that reason.
Speaker 1:Introduce yourself. What do you do? What are you building?
Speaker 20:So I'm Aiden, the CTO of Effie Gov. Cool. We're doing the AI operating system for local governments
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 20:Starting with 311 box.
Speaker 1:311. What do you is that information hotline?
Speaker 20:Yes. The informational counterpart to 911.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 20:So interestingly, only around 2% of cities have a 311 line, even though every city has 911.
Speaker 16:Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 20:And what we're doing with our first product is creating a 247 call center that's available to anyone from if you're in San Francisco
Speaker 1:Yeah. Or if
Speaker 20:you're in like a city of 10,000 in the middle of Iowa. Like, you should have the same level of service.
Speaker 21:If you
Speaker 1:call 311, it automatically routes you to your service. And then Yeah. If I'm in my city, it'll give me information. What what are the what's the obviously, everyone knows 911 call. Someone's breaking into my house.
Speaker 1:What's the textbook 311 call? Yeah.
Speaker 2:Think Is this road open, or when does the trash pick up come? Stuff like that.
Speaker 20:Stuff like that. It definitely varies a lot more city to city. So we're live in Florida, we're taking calls about alligators roaming Yeah. Around the
Speaker 1:Yeah. So it's And and it can kind of route and and I'm sure you've set the system up so that you can route to 911 if you need to Absolutely. Or right to animal control, kind of sit above the rest of the stack of all the different city services.
Speaker 20:Yeah. And that's kind of why we started with this is because it gives us a really great insight into what are the calls and services that the city's providing. So now we can go down and actually handle these workflows end to end
Speaker 21:Yeah.
Speaker 20:With our agents.
Speaker 1:Who is your favorite entrepreneur of all time? Someone you look to for advice.
Speaker 20:Peter Thiel. Oh.
Speaker 2:First first
Speaker 1:person to say PT. Alright. So, yeah. Why why is this sitting here? What do you do?
Speaker 1:Introduce yourself. Who are
Speaker 22:you?
Speaker 23:Yes. My name is Zane, founder of Knox Metals and we cut metal. So Okay. We're trying to build the most efficient metal service centers in America to empower every factory in America to work with better margins and to move faster.
Speaker 1:Okay. There's a lot of ways He's doing the meme.
Speaker 2:He's doing He's doing the meme. He's re industrializing.
Speaker 1:Who's your favorite entrepreneur Alex Karp. Of all time? Alex Karp. We've had him on the show last week. Introduce yourself.
Speaker 1:Who are you? What are building?
Speaker 21:Yeah. So hi. My name is Vihar and we're building Orange Slice. We're basically AI search infra to help you find customers that already want your product.
Speaker 1:Who is your favorite entrepreneur of all time?
Speaker 21:Oh, that's a good one. I'm not I don't actually know that many entrepreneurs in general.
Speaker 1:Well, someone that you read a biography of or look up to or or maybe just saw a recent interview with and thought was Yeah. I could learn something from them.
Speaker 2:He's Lisan Al Gayebe of enterprise SaaS. He doesn't need it.
Speaker 1:It's just a blank slate.
Speaker 2:He doesn't need any influence.
Speaker 21:Well, honestly, I don't think I don't draw that much inspiration just because I think the biggest motivating factor in this might be contrarian is not actually inspiration, but like the fear of mediocrity of it not working out has been way bigger for us. That's the biggest reason I don't have that much inspiration. But Eric from the Ramp from Ramp, my cofounder used to work at Ramp. So I mean, they are absolutely killing it.
Speaker 1:Quite a bunch, you know. Introduce yourself. What do you who are you? What do you do?
Speaker 6:My name is Arlen. I am building a Zomio, which is an API that gives more context to agents. Okay. So if you're a Cursor user
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 6:You can pretty much just go to Cursor Yeah. Index any documentation or code base and give it as a context of an agent.
Speaker 1:We what exactly is happening? I I I know Cursor does kind of roll ups of what's happening. There's there there's some rag infrastructure that's popular. What else is going on in in the actual product to unlock value?
Speaker 6:Yeah. So the two reasons I built this is because I was so fucking pissed Mhmm. Where I would go to Google, copy paste all the docs, and paste them right in the cursor.
Speaker 1:We've all been
Speaker 6:there. Yeah. The memory is not persistent. So they will fucking forget that in two And second one is that you also pollute context window, which causes context fraud. It's actually a study done by Chroma, which is like a AI company.
Speaker 1:Oh, yeah. We know Jeff well.
Speaker 6:Yeah. Saying, like, post 4,000 tokens, I think. Like, the performance of any LLM goes like this. Yep. So that's, like, the reason I built this.
Speaker 1:Who's your favorite entrepreneur of all time?
Speaker 6:Yeah. Who the fuck the most money, bro? Like, Elon Musk. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 6:He's the richest man, bro. Yeah. Yeah. But otherwise, yeah, Brian Chesky is my gold. I love Brian Chesky.
Speaker 6:Brian Chesky.
Speaker 1:Founder mode. Would you mind introducing yourself and your company?
Speaker 19:Sure. Hi, everyone. I'm Alessia. Byflow is the all in one solution to build production ready apps in no code.
Speaker 1:Okay. We've seen a lot of news recently that there's now a whole industry of vibe code cleanup specialists. What's your reaction? Can vibe coding ever make it to production? No.
Speaker 1:No. Not not now
Speaker 19:at least. Like, all the solutions out there are really broken and Yeah. They can they give you this wow effect in the front end, but on the back end side, there is so much, to do and there is a huge need. People are like, they have hair and fire problems and they need to solve these problems. The market is huge.
Speaker 1:Who's your favorite entrepreneur of all time?
Speaker 19:My favorite entrepreneur is Taylor Swift.
Speaker 1:Taylor Swift.
Speaker 19:I am a big fan and she is amazing.
Speaker 1:Introduce yourself for the stream.
Speaker 2:Who are you?
Speaker 1:What are you building?
Speaker 24:Well, I'm Joshua March. I'm the co founder and CEO of Veritas Agent. We build AI agents for the consumer lending industry.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 24:So interfacing with borrowers to help help doing sales, servicing, collections Mhmm. For like fintechs, banks, credit unions, services, that kind
Speaker 4:of thing.
Speaker 1:Who's your favorite entrepreneur of all time?
Speaker 24:So there's this guy Felix Dennis
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 24:Who's a who was a
Speaker 1:British entrepreneur. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 24:And he wrote this book called How to Get Rich Yeah. Which I think is the best book on entrepreneurship. What you actually do.
Speaker 25:Yeah. My name is Kevin. I'm the CEO and co founder of The Prompting Company and we help product get mentioned in ChatGPT.
Speaker 2:Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay.
Speaker 25:Not just another generative engine optimization tool.
Speaker 2:But Yeah. Yeah. How you differentiate?
Speaker 25:Yeah. Yeah. For sure. So we play in the infrastructure layer. We're not just creating articles for you.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 25:We create shadow sites for our companies to Okay.
Speaker 15:You know, influence all
Speaker 1:of Who is your favorite entrepreneur of all time in history?
Speaker 25:In history? I mean Anyone.
Speaker 1:Live or dead?
Speaker 25:Dude, Steve Jobs.
Speaker 1:Steve Jobs. What do know? Yeah. That's a one.
Speaker 2:Good answer.
Speaker 1:Hey. Introduce yourself. Who are you? What are
Speaker 2:doing? Bob. Hi. I'm Bob. Welcome to the show, Bob.
Speaker 26:CTO of Embedder. We build coding agents for firmware.
Speaker 1:Okay. Coding agents for firm firmware? Firmware. Yeah. What what device are you embedding?
Speaker 2:Firmware. Done.
Speaker 26:So we do microcontrollers, Linux computers, so think about any microcontroller you can think of, STM32, ESP, TI, NXP, any manufacturer.
Speaker 2:When learn did you wanted to do coding agents for firmware?
Speaker 26:That's a good question. So I did hardware all my life, started like, know, started when I was 12 doing robots, moving to more professional stuff in high school. In college
Speaker 2:High school. Let's go. In college yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 26:But in college, I built, humanoids. Okay. And then, went to a startup, did med tech stuff, then went to Tesla, worked on Robotaxi. Yeah. So we just kind of saw it.
Speaker 26:I saw this problem from, like, you know, a re like, 10% research lab to a trillion dollar company. Yeah.
Speaker 1:Who's your favorite entrepreneur of all time?
Speaker 26:Oh, Elon. Has to be Elon.
Speaker 1:Go. Introduce yourself. What do you do?
Speaker 27:Hey. My name is Sion. We're Calinda.
Speaker 21:That's a
Speaker 1:great name.
Speaker 8:Yeah. We're basically
Speaker 27:a deep research for class action law firms.
Speaker 1:Okay. Interesting.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Let's give it up for litigation.
Speaker 1:Yeah. What's the secret sauce? Is it is it just the the day the bad data in, bad data out? You gotta get private data that's maybe behind some sort of wall. It's not scraped into the the pretraining weights of GPT five.
Speaker 1:And so you have some cornered resource in the data, or is it something in the architecture or something at the UI level? Like, where where where's the interesting
Speaker 27:Kinda like most startups at YC, like, a lot of it sits on the application layer.
Speaker 1:Sure.
Speaker 27:Most of it for for class action law firms is the scale at which they do things. You know? They can have maybe 10,000,000 pages for litigation. Oh, wow. So with that kind of scale, you can't obviously just toss them
Speaker 1:to check. Yeah. Be a hassle. Just click upload another PDF. Upload another PDF.
Speaker 1:Upload another PDF.
Speaker 2:Yeah. And then the
Speaker 27:kind of second thing is, like, most of the data sort of sits sits in silos Yep. And kind of aggregating it all and making it sort of, you know, comprehensive like a human would is is
Speaker 1:Who is your favorite entrepreneur of all time?
Speaker 3:Sam Allman.
Speaker 1:Sam
Speaker 8:Allman. Just just because I've
Speaker 3:met him twice, but
Speaker 1:he's Yeah. He's a GOAT. Interface yourself.
Speaker 22:We haven't pitched yet.
Speaker 1:Who are you? What do you do?
Speaker 22:Ralph Garcia, founder of Kernel. We're crazy fast browsers in the cloud for your
Speaker 2:AI agent. The browser wars.
Speaker 22:The browser wars are on. But these but these are
Speaker 1:basically computer use. So it's API to go and Exactly. Interact with the website.
Speaker 22:Yeah. So nowadays a lot of AI agents you want to hook them up to the exact same tools that humans use. Yep. And the browser is one of the main tools that we use on a day to day basis. And so we're powering automations in healthcare, fintech, QA, lots of different use cases that AI is really good at.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Who is your favorite entrepreneur in history? Oof. Who do you look to?
Speaker 22:Favorite entrepreneur? How far back are we going?
Speaker 1:We can go live or dead thousands of years if you want.
Speaker 2:You can go can go Edison.
Speaker 1:Somebody has somebody has mentioned Jesus Christ. Somebody has mentioned Eric Lyman at Ramp.
Speaker 22:So I mean
Speaker 1:didn't make the comparison but it was made today.
Speaker 22:I mean, cliche, I'll have to go Steve Jobs. I mean, I Love it. I grew up reading
Speaker 1:That was Jordy's answer too.
Speaker 22:And studying Apple like Yeah. That was my first computer as a kid.
Speaker 1:Yeah. So you go.
Speaker 3:Who are you?
Speaker 1:What Explain do yourself.
Speaker 16:Yeah. My name's Adi. I'm a co founder of AgentRail. It's the first email provider built for AI agents. Key distinction There you go.
Speaker 16:The key distinction is we're not AI for your email. We're email for your AI.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:Woah. Oh,
Speaker 1:interesting. Like, browsing is for agents. Okay. Exactly. I was wondering about this because I go to agent mode Yeah.
Speaker 1:And oftentimes it hits a wall where it's like, okay. It should just now it should just email the person to actually kick off that process, and it can't do it.
Speaker 2:Yeah. How much money are you making?
Speaker 16:How much money are we making?
Speaker 1:Yeah. Did you share a KPI at demo day? Did you share progress?
Speaker 2:What KPI should
Speaker 16:we do now?
Speaker 7:But we love our customers.
Speaker 1:Okay. Okay. There are but you customers plural. I know that there's more than one. Okay.
Speaker 1:Yes. I'm learning. I'm learning. There we There Did
Speaker 2:you come in with this idea or did you pivot to it?
Speaker 16:So we were trying to get rich quick. Is
Speaker 2:that why you're is is somebody vlogging out or there is that someone else?
Speaker 16:Exactly. Remember were hustlers.
Speaker 10:Were filming
Speaker 2:that YouTube. I know
Speaker 1:what questions I'm asking right now. Let's go.
Speaker 16:So we wanted agents to go on the Internet, make us money, farm free trials. Wow. Interesting. Exactly. And we realized it's kinda hard
Speaker 1:to give agents their own inboxes. Yeah.
Speaker 24:But they
Speaker 16:should have them. Sequoia is talking about them. Langchaine is talking about them. Yeah. Agents need their own email inboxes.
Speaker 1:Okay. Who's your favorite entrepreneur in history alive or dead?
Speaker 16:I like Warren Buffet.
Speaker 1:Warren Buffet? Yeah. Interesting.
Speaker 16:I think he's one of those guys who's like actually humble. Yeah. Right? Like, it's not like, okay. Hey.
Speaker 16:I'm worth a 100,000,000.
Speaker 1:Yeah. I think
Speaker 16:he just genuinely is in it for the love of the game.
Speaker 1:He does. He's in it for
Speaker 3:the love
Speaker 1:of the game.
Speaker 16:Hopefully, one day, you know, I could be like that.
Speaker 1:Who are you? What do you do?
Speaker 9:Hey. I'm Oddeth, building Riff, which is cursor for music production.
Speaker 1:Oh, that's are you sitting so cursor sits on top of an open source ID. Are you sitting on top of Ableton or something?
Speaker 9:That doesn't exist for music. So we actually built everything from scratch.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 9:Trained our own models. Sure. We have our own, like, editor. It kinda looks like GarageBand, but you can use AI tools to generate sounds and mess around.
Speaker 1:Interesting. Do you bring your own like samples or do you you plug into a sample library? Like where or is all this are are all the samples AI generated?
Speaker 9:Yeah. We have like a user community of samples Okay. But we also like let you generate your
Speaker 1:own. Cool.
Speaker 9:And also lots of bells and whistles to make it easier. Like for example, you can out a melody and we'll play it on an instrument for
Speaker 1:you. That's very cool. Favorite entrepreneur in history, live or dead?
Speaker 9:Doctor Dre.
Speaker 1:Doctor Dre.
Speaker 2:Doctor Dre. I knew
Speaker 1:I'd ask you. Anyway, thank you so much
Speaker 8:for your time.
Speaker 1:Introduce yourself.
Speaker 2:Great to have you.
Speaker 1:Who are you? What are you building?
Speaker 4:I'm John Ferrara. I'm building Juxta, which is a GPS alternative that can track anywhere on earth with no hardware.
Speaker 1:I feel like I've seen this on X.
Speaker 4:You might have seen our we had a pretty cool launch video.
Speaker 1:Very cool. Yeah. Okay. So, how does it work? We there there's some company that spun out of Google that just sold that does something similar, it's like magnetics.
Speaker 1:But what what what how do you how are you doing it?
Speaker 4:Yeah. So we basically use simulated technology to basically render any environment using satellite imagery or indoor floor plans into three d.
Speaker 1:So you're a GeoGuessr.
Speaker 4:You could put it that way, yeah. Should make the company that way. Yeah. And then we simulate millions of people or objects moving through out of space. Cool.
Speaker 4:Simulate their sensor measurements, accelerometers, gyroscopes, and then train models on that and then basically deploy the software and we can leverage the IMUs which are like sensors that are already into every phone Yep. And most other devices today to track you.
Speaker 1:Is adjacent Like, to I can see you through your WiFi. Lots of people love this. Yeah. If you've
Speaker 4:seen that film in The Dark Knight, there's like a scene where Batman
Speaker 1:Oh yeah. I know the one you're talking about. That's how you can envision it. Yep. Who's your favorite entrepreneur in history?
Speaker 1:Live or dead?
Speaker 4:Oh my god. I would say I would say know the Riff guys just said Doctor. Dre, but I'll say Drake because he just came out that Amazon store. Okay. And Drake's my favorite artist.
Speaker 1:There we go.
Speaker 2:What Amazon store?
Speaker 1:I don't know You
Speaker 10:haven't seen this? He's
Speaker 4:is his actual plot to take over Amazon Music as a distribution platform, but he's working with Amazon to sell all of his merch and all of his goods through their storefront. And basically like facilitate all their distribute distribution through there. So Yeah. That's my cop out answer but I just love Drake.
Speaker 1:And we have a special guest with us opening the show. Introduce yourself for
Speaker 3:the My name is Peter Tuchman. I'm known as the Einstein of Wall
Speaker 1:Street. Einstein of Wall Street. And do you get that? Smart.
Speaker 2:I just who is the first person? Did you give yourself
Speaker 3:Erin Burnett gave me that. I've been I've had a show on her show now Yep. On CNN for the last four months ever since the beginning of the sort of mini crash that was sort of self induced by our our the new leader. The new the new the new sheriff in town.
Speaker 1:Terrible tantrum.
Speaker 3:Correct. She called me in. So she used to work on the floor with CNBC.
Speaker 1:Sure.
Speaker 3:And she nicknamed it probably twenty years ago and called me Einstein and that sort of picked up.
Speaker 1:Your your your latest collaborator is not on TV, but on streaming. Correct?
Speaker 3:Correct. So I had the portionality of actually meeting iShow Speed.
Speaker 1:Oh,
Speaker 3:yes. Right? Young 20 year old kid who I got invited. So there's a team that's doing his stream thing. Young guy named Adam Faiz.
Speaker 2:He came to our event. We were here about a month and a half ago. He came to
Speaker 3:a Adam Adam is something special. Yeah. He found me about four years ago and asked me if I would let him shoot me every day walking out of the stock exchange for thirty days and just do what I do. Sure. And we did this whole TikTok thing called Einstein Elementary.
Speaker 3:It went viral Yep. Like me and like marching bands from Brooklyn and walking around with a 50 pound Hershey's kiss and doing all this crazy stuff. So he called me last week, asked if I could bring speed to the floor, and it didn't seem appropriate at the time. And he said, well, how can I get you to meet him? And I said, come up with an idea.
Speaker 3:And he's an idea guy. So he called me on Thursday morning. Said, we're gonna be at the balls? Yeah.
Speaker 1:Yeah. I do, guys.
Speaker 3:He's gonna be at the ball. Would you come and welcome him to Wall Street? I said, absolutely. So they gave me a police escort. I went down there and met this young guy and talked about some of the shtick I do.
Speaker 3:Yeah. You know, investing in stocks and not stuff and about, you know, the fact that, you know, that everything that his life is based on is actually a publicly traded company. Sure. And then instead of, you know, buying the next iPhone, he could probably buy a couple shares of Apple and then
Speaker 1:Good
Speaker 3:point. Maybe, you know, he could invest in his future besides the amazing future
Speaker 2:receive it.
Speaker 3:He received it totally. He talked about it a couple days down the road, so I got the message across and and I've blown up. I've got the numbers. 200. So I have now I came in at 260,000 followers on Thursday and now I have 419
Speaker 19:and my
Speaker 3:I've got 40,000,000 views on some of my posts. 7,000 DMs.
Speaker 1:Seven Seven thousand DMs.
Speaker 3:Okay. I actually just did
Speaker 2:a video
Speaker 3:to answer that. Anyway. What
Speaker 2:was the first stock you ever bought?
Speaker 3:You know what? I very real I did not ever buy a share of stock until recently. I went through most of my career because I'm a registered trader a broker on the floor.
Speaker 1:Oh,
Speaker 3:sure. And I'm not allowed to be in a stock for a customer and for myself in a thirty day period.
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 3:And so I built a trading strategy twenty years ago, trading the S and P 500 based on information that I have as a broker on floor, and I trade all 347 names in the S and P every day. So, basically, I made a decision years ago, you know, and also money does a funny thing. If I'm in a stock for myself and I get an order for a customer, it's gonna impact the way I trade. Sure. Totally.
Speaker 3:And I didn't want to ever be the case. I Makes I do well enough here as a commission broker that I said, you know what? I'll invest in my kids. I'll put them through college. And they
Speaker 2:There you go.
Speaker 3:They both graduated without any debt, and that's where my money went.
Speaker 1:Fantastic. What about some of the first stocks that you were brokering?
Speaker 3:First stocks that I broker so we're here. We're talking about IPOs. Right? And so, you know, I probably have traded more IPOs than anybody on Earth. I've been in the crowd on all of them.
Speaker 3:I mean, the first IPO I think I traded was LinkedIn. Mhmm. Right? It it was priced at 30. It opened at 60, ran up to a 180 Wow.
Speaker 3:Same day. And that was where I got the sense of how Yeah. How amazing the enthusiasm around an IPO because it's based on confidence.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 3:Totally. And nobody knows it. And then and so one of I've I've had so many fun experiences in IPOs. Jack Ma, Alibaba IPO, which was one of biggest that we've ever had here. Yeah.
Speaker 3:He and I bonded. We spent so IPOs here take probably four or five hours. We just opened Klarna. Right?
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 3:And the process behind that, which we do better than anyone in the world, is the price discovery process that what goes on. It's kind of like building a building. Mhmm. The way you open a stock, the way we open a stock takes time because it's a matter of the information going back and forth. It's a public offering.
Speaker 3:So the public has to understand what's going on, and so we go back and forth with our customer. It's kind of like if you put the bricks mortar in the right place and you the way a stock opens, if it's built correctly, is going to purport the way it trades forever. Sure. That doesn't guarantee it's going up, but it will have structure and foundation. And, you know, you go to NASDAQ, nothing against NASDAQ, but if you go to NASDAQ, it's fully electronic.
Speaker 3:So it it opens when the buyers and sellers meet in an electronic marketplace. Here, it's different. So then you're gonna see what you see in NASDAQ. It'll go up, it goes down, there's no there are no guard rails. Right?
Speaker 3:Sure. So here, things are a lot different. So Jack Ma and I spent four hours together in the IPO. He and I are very short, so we bonded on the fact that we were the shortest people in the crowd. We were on the same level, not not not financially.
Speaker 3:Because he became a very wealthy guy again on that day.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Someone on Our team actually was here IPO as well.
Speaker 3:Amazing time. And then we've had look, but then, you know, the the the the whole landscape has changed when we were completely blew up the whole IPO market and that affected
Speaker 1:Yeah. Tell us that story because Well I remember the s one going out, but then did did they get out? What did yeah.
Speaker 3:What happened?
Speaker 1:Well, what
Speaker 3:what ended up happening look, as I said, it's built on confidence. And when, you know, everybody there was huge money put into WeWork. Mhmm. He was lauded by now he came down to the floor many times. Mhmm.
Speaker 3:And it wasn't until the night before, everyone needs to know this, that on the end of the roadshow is when all the financials are given out Yep. To the public. Yep. And it turned out that it was all smoke and mirrors and he had spent all the money on on pro prostitutes and blow, and that the company had nothing, no basis behind it. Yeah.
Speaker 3:And so it was aborted. The deal was And what that did was it chained amazingly enough that one stock could change the landscape of IPOs for years. For years. It literally everyone
Speaker 1:said guys, you know, windows closed. That's what closed.
Speaker 3:That's what closed. And it was the fact
Speaker 1:that on they were Mad Money was saying, we don't want this.
Speaker 3:We don't want this. Remember
Speaker 1:that quote?
Speaker 3:And so to think that you know something about what's going on and and we didn't know anything Yep. On literally until the night before made such a huge impact on the market. It literally has taken a couple of years Mhmm. To grow out of that. The night before that, we had had some really wonderful robust years Yeah.
Speaker 3:REMAX and a bunch of stock They would open the huge premiums. We were trading
Speaker 2:a quick history on Klarna. Right? Because Klarna's tried to get out a couple times
Speaker 3:Okay. So I don't know the history Yeah. About Klarna. All I know is that I watched how it opened here. So it Yeah.
Speaker 3:Did take a little while. It did open at 52, I think.
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 3:Right? And so it's not trading you know what? It's hard to know. So what's important about it is where the bids are, where the offers are, and how the foundation looks. So where the bodies are buried within the stock Yeah.
Speaker 3:When it opens. Right? There was enough stock at 52 bid on balance, which what it's called. So stocks pair off that are priced accordingly. So 4 point something million shares open, that means that they were market orders.
Speaker 3:They had no limits to them and that's they that was they paired themselves off. It was a 52 bid for 300,000 on balance meant that there was a stabilizing bid, whether it was by Goldman Sachs, the company, or or the banker or not, but that's what made it open at 52. Sure. If there had been more to buy at the market, it would have opened higher or more to sell, it would have opened lower. It opened at 52.
Speaker 3:It did trade up to $57.20 on a small bit, 70,000 shares traded up, and then it came in. It's trading at a couple dollars lower, which is reasonable. It does not have the power and the impact that Figma and and Bullish did.
Speaker 2:Is this so?
Speaker 3:Figma and Bullish did.
Speaker 2:So so so but but all three of
Speaker 4:these are
Speaker 2:relatively like, is there a specific strategy that that these IPOs have had in terms of, pricing at a at a at a at at what feels like very reasonable, like
Speaker 3:So you know what? They're they they're pricing it based on the reaction to to what the what the investment community is Supply demand. To give. Yeah. It is.
Speaker 3:So some of the other ones got priced at 30. There was a oversupply over demand at 30. They up upped it to 32, 35. That's how it will go. So the night the last night when they go out to the roadshow to give out allocations, they will get a sense of where that valuation should be Yeah.
Speaker 3:And then that's where they will give it up. They left some money on the table as did those other IPOs. The other ones opened at 90 and went to a 117. That was that was bullish. And Figma also traded a huge premium.
Speaker 3:My gut is that the sectors that they were in, there's a lot of pressure on this sector right now. And Totally. And so those those sectors were more iCloud and and and and AI based. Mhmm. Right?
Speaker 3:And so I think that's why there was a little more pop to it.
Speaker 1:Well, we know you have to get out of here. Thank you so much for stopping
Speaker 12:by the show.
Speaker 1:We'd love
Speaker 21:to get you some
Speaker 3:time. Anytime. I'm always
Speaker 1:and talk for another two
Speaker 3:hours. Let's go.
Speaker 1:So thank
Speaker 2:you so much.
Speaker 15:I love this.
Speaker 1:Let's go. We need to dive into the Apple and the iPhone announcement briefly. Obviously, this has been talked about. It happened a couple days ago. But the the post that stuck out to me, there are a few about the design, but the big one was that the iPhone 17 Pro now has more graphics power than an m two MacBook Air.
Speaker 1:I I I have I this is a MacBook Air. I don't know if the this might be the m three or m four version.
Speaker 2:Would have clocked here as an Air guy.
Speaker 1:I just went for it because I was like, I'm traveling more. I'm less, like, in workstation mode. And, and so, like, let me give this one a try. And let me see. I have the, I have the m four.
Speaker 1:So I I think I have more power here than the iPhone 17 Pro. But even just two years ago, it's crazy to think how quickly the chips are shifting from, workstation, which is huge, you know, you know, laptop to phone. And so I wanted to talk about what the downstream implications of this are.
Speaker 2:And Did you did you see the camera functionality? Apparently, if you take a you can take a photo holding your phone vertically, and it will give you the lens. Horizontal.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Because, again, it's I think it's it's four I think it's a square sensor that's maybe 48 megapixels. The the How
Speaker 2:are feeling about the the orange? Do you think this is this is Tim Cook signaling that he's a BTC Maxi?
Speaker 1:Oh, I thought it was him talk giving a little nod to Gary Tan, my combinator.
Speaker 2:That's one of one of the other. Clearly. I I Had to be one of the other. Yeah. It is the color the colors, I like I like orange.
Speaker 2:I think it's a under underrated color in general. But, still the color options were interesting. Like, no matte. You would have thought they would have done a matte black.
Speaker 1:They didn't do matte black this year. They just wow. So they have a silver
Speaker 4:and a
Speaker 1:black and like a blue, I think. Something like that. I like orange. I I I think it's cool bold color. I think I think it's one of the ways to stand out.
Speaker 1:Some Clarin orange. You know? The Clarin orange. It's like f one. Maybe it's a nod to that.
Speaker 1:Who knows? But they're they're having fun with it. Hopefully, next year, the color I'm pulling for, ramp yellow. Can you imagine the ramp yellow iPhone? It just might happen.
Speaker 1:Maybe we'll we'll make it happen. But on the tech side, you know, people were pretty like, there were a couple takes early that were pretty, like, bearish. Like, oh, like nothing changed. Nothing changed. And Ben Thompson summed it up pretty well.
Speaker 2:Tim Cook
Speaker 1:I mean, you had a funny banger about this.
Speaker 2:I mean, Tim Tim Cook posted he did post Yeah. The morning of. He was like, days like this make Apple. You know, like like, basically, like, hyped it up as as though it was gonna be this sort of dramatic announcement. And Yep.
Speaker 2:And I think people were pretty Yeah. Pretty let down.
Speaker 1:At this point, they if it's not a change in the overall form factor, like, you're going to folding phone, It's not gonna be as easy just to talk about completely. But at the same time, it has a bunch of it has a bunch of improvements that I think will have downstream effects that might be interesting and might actually have kind of these, like, viral moments. And Yeah. I'll I'll get into my thesis here. So it has a vapor chamber in it that allows it to cool.
Speaker 1:So if you're in the sun or you're running, you know, you're running some heavy duty app, you're not gonna get your your phone's not gonna be as hot anymore. 50% more RAM, obviously, that's important for AI. And then they have a new chip that's designed with the LLM transformer architecture in mind. So the Apple a series of chips, they've always been somewhat AI optimized, but more for just broader machine learning tasks. Now they're doing the same thing that OpenAI is doing with NVIDIA and Broadcom on chip design.
Speaker 1:Same thing that Google, DeepMind, TPU team is doing over at Google and Anthropix Here's Amazon my and Tranium.
Speaker 2:Here's my post introducing iPhone 4,000, a newer, better iPhone that's lighter, faster, newer, and better by
Speaker 1:How many where did this land? How many likes did this wind up getting? Six. 6,006. And the funny story here, the the little inside baseball, Jordy posted this exact post like five minutes earlier.
Speaker 2:Well, so so I originally had this post as a draft. Yeah. And then I altered it. Yep. And I posted it and it complete I had a different picture and I did iPhone four seventy two and it was just completely flopping.
Speaker 2:It got like one like Yeah. On like 300 impressions like people hated it. Yep. The the timeline hated it. Yep.
Speaker 2:I just went back to this version, posted it, and then it it completely ripped. So never give up. Never give up. You think you have a good bit.
Speaker 1:But the the funny thing here I mean, obviously, is funny that Apple always comes out is like, it's our most powerful iPhone ever. Because it's like, well, if it was the if you if you guys messed up and accidentally created a less powerful iPhone, you would just keep selling the current one. You're not you're never gonna come out and be like, this year, we're selling one, the latest iPhone, but it's less powerful. Because just sell the last one then. Just be like, no new iPhone because we couldn't make it any more powerful.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:We actually made it we made it perfect.
Speaker 1:We made it perfect. So we're Yeah. I mean,
Speaker 2:what are you are how are you feeling about the Air? I think that's gonna sell incredibly well.
Speaker 1:I don't know. I'll I'll I'll need to, like, feel it and and and, and try it. I've never had any iPhone that's not just, like, the biggest and most of the, like, the the biggest screen, the maxed out one. I've always gone for, like, the the the most power, the biggest one. I've actually considered carrying an iPad Mini just as a phone because I'm so big that my pockets are big enough to carry an iPad Mini.
Speaker 2:Back pocket.
Speaker 1:Yeah. No. No. I I was feeling it, and I was like, you can get it with cell service. So I think you can get a phone number on there.
Speaker 1:And so you can just have like, pull out your giant I iPad Mini. But but I never did that. I've always just stuck to, like, the Pro Max, the big one, the the big screen, but it it's it's easy. The I don't know. The the the interesting thing about the the iPhone Air was this you know, the whole computer is in the camera bump now, and, basically, everything that drops down is just battery and screen.
Speaker 1:Battery and screen all the way down. And so people are wondering, like, you know, they could clearly take out the battery and the screen and maybe make, a pen. Like, they're they're getting so good at miniaturizing, like, what it means to be a computer that they can put that in all sorts of different things.
Speaker 2:I would be would have been really excited to have an iPhone that doesn't that will sit flat on a surface without a case on it. Because I haven't used cases in in many years. I just like the the feeling of the phone.
Speaker 1:It is crazy that
Speaker 2:they've just for sure. Perpetually like on you know, it just give me, like, a flat surface. Like, I'm happy for the phone to be Yeah. As thick as necessary to just give me a flat surface.
Speaker 1:And it looked like they were gonna do that with the iPhone Pro because it has this wider notch. So at least if you did if you did the notch evenly all the way across
Speaker 2:nice if it's kind of like Yeah.
Speaker 1:At an angle. That's fine, I guess. I don't know.
Speaker 2:But it's all it's also so funny the the idea of like you have this incredible camera
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:And then you're just like putting it on like Yeah. Really want you to buy a case. Like, it it it's it's like Yeah. A lot of the product design seems driven by
Speaker 1:I don't I I don't think that's the real I don't think that's the real reason.
Speaker 2:I think it's a I think it's
Speaker 1:I think it's I I think it's genuinely like people don't like heavy phones. And so you have to balance, like, you need you need the optics of a camera that's that's certain thickness, and then you need the phone to be thin so that people actually carry it around and aren't like, this thing's heavy. Tinfoil hat, yes, is the case. I think I I just don't think
Speaker 2:they I I don't think want
Speaker 1:how much money do you think they make from cases?
Speaker 2:Mean, they're adding revenue. What percentage of people do you think when they go to the buy an iPhone, buy an Apple case?
Speaker 1:I would I would estimate that it's less than 1% of their overall revenue. Cases. Yeah. Less Totally.
Speaker 2:But you're talking to the GOAT of profit maximization, Tim Cook.
Speaker 1:There's just so many other ways. I feel like you could sell 1% more iPhones if you if you actually choose this odd choice because people are like, well, yeah, it's it's the lightest iPhone. It's lighter than the Samsung one. Yeah. It it's thinner.
Speaker 1:It's lighter. It's it it looks great. And then there might be something about, like, the notch kind of holding on your finger. And so you can actually hold the phone easier with that as opposed to if it was just like fully fully smooth. Yeah.
Speaker 1:Anyway But
Speaker 2:yeah. I mean, when when you start thinking of when you start like the the incremental sales from from, like, design driven decisions like this.
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 2:I do think I do think it'd be significant.
Speaker 1:But anyway
Speaker 6:Anyway.
Speaker 1:Huge keynote. Filmed on an iPhone, obviously. A lot less graphics this time around. My take on the iPhone Pro was you're we're getting to the point where you could run an LLM on device. And even if it's not Apple intelligence, you know, through that API, just the ability to actually distill something that's like GPT four level and have it be free.
Speaker 1:Not even an API call that you need, not even cheap on a per token basis, but actually just have something that you can basically drag and drop the energy. Cost of the energy. And no one thinks about it because they charge on the edge because they charge their phone every night anyway.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:So I was talking to Tyler about this earlier. Try and put into context how powerful a an an LLM running on device could be with this next iPhone. Because currently, people have done it. I feel like people have distilled models to the point where they can run locally on phones. But if they're not fast or they're not smart, but it feels like we might be at a point where you get, like, to some sort of, like, touring touring test passing plus not
Speaker 2:waiting for is asking if it's Nico Rosberg
Speaker 1:It is. F one world It
Speaker 2:is. The former f one world champion. And now a capital allocator.
Speaker 1:Now a capital allocator. So, yeah, Tyler, what what what is your take as this gets into people's hands? How solid do you think the actual interactions with LLMs could be on on device?
Speaker 15:Yeah. So I think think it's 12 gigabytes now
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 15:Up from eight. Yep. So you can probably run like a like very solid like 7,000,000,000 parameter like not super quantized
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 15:Model. We've had those for a long time that are like very solid like obviously they look they're gonna pass Turing tests, whatever. Sure. You're probably not gonna be using it for like doing your your like hard physics homework.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 15:But like most like things that you want from like a non device model like helping look at your emails or like doing stuff that like you would think of like like a really good Siri product would do.
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 15:I think it's like totally capable of doing that. I mean, it's like I don't think that Apple Intelligence was bad because the hardware was lacking. Mhmm. It was like like, I mean, you can it'll be a little bit slower probably to run on cloud maybe.
Speaker 1:Yeah. I mean, with with with my experience with Apple Intelligence was it was just just instantiated in very odd ways. It they they didn't really have, like, a killer app there, and it was, like, a bunch of different things that kind of piped in, and you could, like, highlight text and then just say rewrite this. All sort of, like, very incremental gains.
Speaker 2:Summaries.
Speaker 1:Yeah. What oh, the summary is botched, but sometimes that's might be the best feature, actually. Yeah. It's
Speaker 2:hilarious. It's a feature, not a bug.
Speaker 1:We just saw we just saw it in our chat in our group chat where I posted some fake news and Apple summarizes it as like
Speaker 2:Gabe says shouldn't be shouldn't Tyler be back in school? Gabe, you must have missed the episode. But He's
Speaker 1:taking a gap semester. He is
Speaker 2:riding with us.
Speaker 1:Yeah. And so I I think it's I think there's, like, there's something magical about getting the ability to inference a GPT four level model on the edge for free. Like, you can you can quibble about the level of intelligence that is, but it is actually too cheap to meter because you won't even have to set up an API key. And so you can vend in a a a g p t four level model and then go viral and not have a bill show up and not need to think about monetization, not need to think about anything that's a drag on your just pure virality. You can have a free app that just grows and grows and grows and figure out the monetization later.
Speaker 1:And I feel like this sets us up for maybe something interesting to happen in consumer. We haven't really had that that moment of you remember the Lenza moment, the magic avatars? You upload your picture, and it, it turns you into Superman or something and then the Studio Ghibli moment. We haven't had that many, like, viral apps that are purely based on LLM interactions, like text interactions. There's been a couple like, there was one called, like, generative dungeon.
Speaker 1:Do you remember this? It was like a dungeon crawler text thing. So it would say, like, you walk up to the dragon's lair. What do you wanna do? And you could just type, like, I I brandished my sword.
Speaker 1:And then it was, like, the dragon
Speaker 15:That was, GPT two.
Speaker 1:That was, yeah, that was super low level. Right? So imagine that plus, like but but you can do it on device at a reasonable level, and and you can bring in some other UI elements from the iPhone, bring in the camera, bring in GPS, bring in, you know, all the other tools that are available just in the iOS, like, Swift, like, you know, developer kits, the SDKs. I feel like there will be a ton of people that are just building cool, interesting things on the iPhone that could potentially, like, go viral and and then become real businesses.
Speaker 15:Yeah. I I don't think this will be that, like, meaningful for, like, Apple intelligence because
Speaker 1:it's I agree.
Speaker 15:Like that's like a product issue. It's not like a hardware issue. But yeah. I I definitely think for like third party developers, this will be like pretty big. Yeah.
Speaker 15:You can do like an you know, if you make some random game, you can now have like avatars or whatever. Yeah. Like if you make the SDK really easy where it's very easy to inference an LLM Yep. You don't have to, like, figure out how to, like, download and then do inference and all that stuff. If they, like, abstract that away Yeah.
Speaker 15:I think it could be interesting.
Speaker 1:And I just feel like we've seen so many there's been so many companies. We talked to some folks at Demo Day who are doing this where they're like, we have this cool, AI agent that, like, scrapes your emails and does this. And it all is all it's all predicated on you installing a Mac app, which is a really, really hard thing to do. Whereas, like Yeah.
Speaker 2:How many Mac apps do you think you've installed this year?
Speaker 1:Oh, it's super rare. It's super rare. You know, I got something to put the decks together. Like, I literally have a a Chrome. Like, that's the one I installed.
Speaker 1:Yep. I'm looking at my home row, and it's like, it's just Chrome.
Speaker 2:Well, and this is why everybody's obsessed with the browser.
Speaker 1:Truly. Truly. Because if you can get people over there, then you're there. But but I have installed apps, and I've installed little tiny apps. We were talking about the the the workout tracking app Strong that I saw my friend at the gym.
Speaker 1:He was using an app to track his workouts. So what app is that? I went and downloaded it. You went and downloaded it. It was very easy for that app to, like, loosely go viral, and it's a free app, But it doesn't have any, like, AI.
Speaker 1:It doesn't really need any AI. But you but you could imagine that the the viral coefficient of of someone downloads an app. They have a magical experience with some twist on top of an LLM, something storytelling, something astrology. Who knows what it'll be? I can't predict it.
Speaker 1:It's as hard to predict as Instagram or Uber, but it's unlocked by having this having this ability for free on the iPhone. And then people are sharing screenshots of, oh, I had this hilarious interaction or or this was incredible, or I love this app. Yeah. They create some viral loop. They do some Nikita beer type stuff, and then and then everyone's downloading the app, and then it gets actually really, really big.
Speaker 1:And I don't think it's gonna be a comp I don't think it's gonna compete with Chattypete. I think it's gonna be a completely different thing, and it's very hard to predict, but but it feels like we Yeah. Might be seeing And and and and it's gonna require some, like, really, you know, crack level of of creativity like what we saw with Harry Harry Potter Balenciaga, where there's, like, the technology existed, and then someone came up with with the great idea to actually go, like, instantiate it. So if you're gonna be mocking that app up, you're gonna do it in figma.com. Think bigger, build faster.
Speaker 1:Figma helps design and development teams build great products together. You can get started for free. The Wall Street Journal was also covering the Apple's iPhone Air. They had a whole interview. They they they they had really good coverage of the of the iPhone event.
Speaker 1:There was a few there was one thing in the the reporting from The Wall Street Journal. I don't have the I don't have this particular article actually, but they did an article or with The Wall Street Journal, and Apple revealed that I I believe they said the majority of iPhones, 51% or more, that are shipping to America are going to be made in India. And I'm not sure if it was this cycle, but it seemed like they were taking the tariff stuff really seriously, moving the, the actual manufacturing capacity around. Obviously, Foxconn, their their manufacturing partner is a Taiwanese company, and so they're worried about geopolitical risk as well. And so, just another another data point around Tim Cook.
Speaker 1:He is not loudly shouting like, America, I'm all in. Reindustrialize. But he is making moves.
Speaker 2:What was the number he threw out at the dinner last week? Wasn't it
Speaker 8:an I don't
Speaker 1:know if he had a number because who was it? It was Zac had a number. And did Apple have a number too that was 600,000,000,000 or something? Apple has thrown out a number at one point. You're completely right.
Speaker 1:My my my point is that we've seen
Speaker 2:The number of thank yous.
Speaker 1:Data points? 12. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Oh, the number of thank yous is a lot.
Speaker 1:But but what we've seen he's invested in in some semi some rare earth developments in The United States and starting to think about manufacturing internationally. And, you know, the the the pro bullish bet on Tim Cook is that, like, if he was able to set up this in China and he's the reason, he can set it up somewhere else because he's the guy who did it. And so even though he hasn't been Yeah. Really loud about his moves because obviously if he says like, oh, yeah. I'm not gonna be manufacturing in China anymore, then, like, his important business partners over there are probably gonna be like, well, yeah.
Speaker 1:Like, we're not gonna take your business seriously anymore. There are a ton of different geopolitical considerations.
Speaker 2:It's such an iconic line from the dinner.
Speaker 1:What does that say?
Speaker 2:The cook says, I've always enjoyed dinner and interacting.
Speaker 1:Yeah. If you're getting dinner this weekend with one of your boys, just tell
Speaker 2:How to say something that like no one can can't, you know, cancel you for? Yeah. It's like, I've always enjoyed dinner and interacting. Interacting. Two things I've enjoyed.
Speaker 1:Is dinner and He's
Speaker 2:not saying I've always enjoyed dinner with you
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 2:And interacting with you. He's just saying I've always enjoyed dinner and Incredible.
Speaker 1:He put putting on a claim. I I feel like for watching somebody's like, I was watching the Tucker Sam Altman interview, and there's a certain level of polish that some of these some of these CEOs have when they get to a certain level of media training and public speaking experience where I think of them more as, like, word rotators than word cells or shape rotators. Like, they can they can so quickly, like, shift a sentence to be like like that. Like, so perfectly balanced where you're like, wow. Every word in that sentence was calculated so that it's the rides this perfect line.
Speaker 1:Like, like, Sam was going back and forth with Tucker, and Tucker's like, I didn't accuse you. I didn't accuse you. And you and if you run back the transcript, you're like, yeah. Technically, he didn't. And that there was that it was not an accusation.
Speaker 1:But then, you know, they're they're rotating the sentences around to try and, like, pin each other. It's like watching a wrestling match. It's crazy.
Speaker 2:Tim Cook said they would be investing $600,000,000,000.
Speaker 1:600,000,000,000. Yeah. Okay. So Apple says the majority of iPhones shipped to The US are now assembled in India, meaning they face no tariff, yet Indian suppliers aren't yet capable of delivering as many of the pro models that US consumers demand. So most of those still come from China.
Speaker 1:So this is the majority of iPhones in total because iPhone, Apple makes a ton of those, but they can't they can't make the leading edge. And then the other thing that everyone always talks about with this, like, assembled in India is not the same as fully manufactured
Speaker 3:in
Speaker 1:India. Obviously, the the the advantage to Chinese manufacturing prowess is that you walk across the street and there's a CNC shop with 25,000 CNC machines that can just immediately Yeah. Make you any part and make a million of those parts if you need. So, obviously, it's gonna be a long road for them to set up manufacturing anywhere other than other than China. But it does seem I would love
Speaker 2:to Tim's actual strategy here because I don't think he's saying, I'm gonna invest. He's not gonna be in a huge hurry to invest that 600,000,000,000, right? He may, you know, he may not actually believe it's it's at all the right decision for Apple and he's just feeling like he needs to
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Placate the admin. And then if and and then in 2028 comes around and and he just, you know, can pull back or
Speaker 1:pull out. There's also like so much to $8,600,000,000,000 of CapEx over what? Five years or something like that. Like, that includes HQ. That includes data centers for iCloud that need to be local.
Speaker 1:If you're streaming the f one movie on Apple TV plus, you don't want that stream coming from a data center across the world necessarily. It needs to be cached locally. So there are, like, so many different pieces of the business building more Apple stores. Like, that counts as CapEx if they build them and they you know, they're so 600,000,000,000 doesn't necessarily mean, like, yes. Like, we're building, like, the one plant You know, this is like a rainforest of complexity that actually delivers the the the iPhone.
Speaker 1:It's not just it's not just like one iPhone factory, please. It's like a whole network of things. Battery life appears to be a challenge for the Air. Apple always says, like, all day battery life, but people are
Speaker 2:like Allegedly.
Speaker 1:What kind of all day are we talking? Are we talking scrolling
Speaker 2:for eighteen hours? Doom scroll?
Speaker 1:Are we talking proper scroll? Proper doom scroll?
Speaker 2:Apple announced battery.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Accessory that will attach to the Air. And, obviously, that's no longer as thin. The company added what it calls a plateau on the back of the iAir and Pro models, adding thickness at the top of the device to fit bigger and hotter chips.
Speaker 2:Not a bump. It's a plateau.
Speaker 1:It's a plateau. Yeah. Oh, they're they're rebranding.
Speaker 2:Maybe they're signaling that we're maybe this is Gartner hype cycle code here.
Speaker 1:Productivity. I mean, they have plateaued in productivity for sure. The hype cycle, they they've been through it. They're like, first hype cycle? First hype cycle?
Speaker 1:I've been here. I'm I'm I'm plateauing. I'm I'm getting productive. OpenAI, the nonprofit, is gonna control its for profit arm and own equity valued at $100,000,000,000. I believe this will make it the most highly valued nonprofit or, like, the most profitable nonprofit in world history, the best funded nonprofit.
Speaker 1:Right? And it is remarkable to think about what that will be like. People have kind of written off the nonprofit as, like, it was going away. Like, it is not going away. Like, it will continue to be
Speaker 2:big back.
Speaker 1:It's it's it's incredibly back, funded forever, essentially, to do a ton of interesting things. I think we're gonna see interesting things about, come out of that organization. But, anyway, the news, this is from the journal, and we'll and we'll break this down. But Nick has it summarized here. OpenAI LLC will be converted into a Delaware public benefit corporation.
Speaker 1:OpenAI nonprofit retains control of the new public benefit corporation. The nonprofit will hold a $100,000,000,000 plus of equity in the public benefit corporation. The PBC structure enables raising large amounts of capital for the mission, which obviously they're already doing. They're still aligned with ensuring AGI benefits all of humanity. That's good.
Speaker 1:But also But aligned with, like, your shareholders. Like, if you're just a normal c corp I know they're a public benefit corporation, but if you're just normal c corp, like, shareholders are humans. Let's make sure it benefits the shareholders. That will, by definition, benefit humanity. But, specifically, they're saying all of humanity.
Speaker 1:Even if you're not a shareholder, AGI should still benefit you, which is a noble cause. OpenAI and Microsoft signed a nonbinding MOU, for the
Speaker 2:next phase of the partnership. A definitive agreement is still being negotiated. OpenAI says it's engaging in California and Delaware. As it stands, Microsoft gets 20% of OpenAI's revenue.
Speaker 1:And for the big man. Something like that.
Speaker 2:Man, Satya. Something like that, which I it it felt like a stretch to me that that that would be sustainable given the, looming costs that, OpenAI needs to incur. Obviously, they're ramping revenue really quickly. Yeah. But you have Broadcom to pay.
Speaker 2:You have Oracle to pay. You have all these
Speaker 1:But it is tied to revenue. You know? It's not the same as being like,
Speaker 2:we're on the host billion.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. It's enough. Exactly.
Speaker 10:But yeah.
Speaker 2:But but still it's a lot of, you know, the the there's these companies are under margin pressure already.
Speaker 1:And and and wasn't the original deal that it would it would be 20% up until they paid a $100,000,000,000 or something like that? There was something where, like, it eventually ran its course. I believe it had an ending, and I think that's what's justifying a lot of the underwriting. Because the lesson from Google, the lesson from Facebook, the lesson from, you know, Microsoft and the rest of the hyperscalers was that you needed your DCF models to be twenty or thirty years into the future. Right?
Speaker 1:Yeah. And so if you just if you if you didn't take into account the third decade of growth, you were undervaluing It
Speaker 2:was originally reported 20% through 2030
Speaker 6:Okay.
Speaker 2:Which still is
Speaker 1:I don't think a lot of investors are scared by thinking about value in 2035. I think they're fine with that now. I think they're saying, like, yeah. Have a ten year fund, and realistically, all the best venture investments, SpaceX is still hanging out in the portfolio twenty years later. They got continuation funds.
Speaker 1:I think that a lot of investors are actually fine to say, yeah. This company is gonna be, like, you know, maybe a financial mess for ten years. But if I'm super confident it's going to be a money printing machine in '20, I'll do the deal all day. Yep. Think that's a wraparound.
Speaker 2:It's still insane to think that the deal ever got done in the first place.
Speaker 1:Because The Microsoft deal?
Speaker 2:Yeah. If you were if if if you talk to your founder and they were like, yeah. I was running a fundraise and, like, you know, ended up taking this deal. I got the valuation I wanted, but ultimately, it gave up 20% of revenue protection. Off the top too.
Speaker 2:So not 20% of, like, profits, but, like, a 20% tax on gross revenue
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Just for the just till 2030.
Speaker 1:Yeah. That would
Speaker 2:be And then and the founder's like, well, it doesn't matter that much because I'm in this for, like, twenty years.
Speaker 1:You're okay. Yeah. You most most people do not get the pass on that.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Very few businesses very few businesses in the world, especially, like, highly competitive, you know, categories, can sustain a 20% tax off the top Yep. And still really produce any profits or or be functioning at all.
Speaker 1:But, obviously I'll push you up.
Speaker 2:Profits are
Speaker 1:What if your what if your business is mobile games in the App Store? You've been effectively paying Apple at 20%, 30% tax off the top for There's a lot
Speaker 2:of examples. Like, NVIDIA could do this too.
Speaker 1:Right? Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. And they sort of are through
Speaker 1:Yeah. Through this
Speaker 2:kind of deal.
Speaker 1:I I don't know. I I I mean, I agree with you. Like, it is it is a crazy crazy deal, unprecedented in a million ways, but everything about the entire OpenAI story is unprecedented. Yeah. Unprecedented to start as a nonprofit.
Speaker 1:Unprecedented to have who are the cofounders? Elon Musk, Peter Thiel. Like, you have, like, seven different cofounders who have, bunch of cofounders have gone off and start direct competitors. That doesn't happen very often. Usually, people are like, I got bags in the category.
Speaker 1:I'm gonna go work on something else. Yeah. There's a bunch of weird stuff.