Bain Trims Its Luxury Forecast to 2-4%, but the Top Keeps Booming; London's Art Season Roars Back; the Rise of "Inheritourism"

June 26: Bain Trims Its Luxury Forecast to 2-4%, but the Top Keeps Booming; London's Art Season Roars Back; the Rise of "Inheritourism"
Bain trims its 2026 luxury forecast after a rough first half, but the very top of the market keeps setting records; London's art season roars back with a second big collection sale in a week; luxury money shifts toward experiences and "inheritourism"; and new arrivals from Rolex and Porsche.

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Bain's Forecast, and a Market Split
- Bain & Company and Altagamma trimmed their outlook: personal luxury goods are now seen growing just 2 to 4 percent in 2026, after a punishing first half (Middle East conflict and oil spikes, US inflation at multi-year highs, record-low consumer confidence, the ECB's first rate hike since 2023).
- The split we keep flagging: Bain's caution is about the broad market, the entry-level bag and the aspirational shopper. The very top is another story. This week a single Modigliani sold for $63.9M in London, and in our data the year's top results (a $25.6M jade necklace, eight-figure Ferraris and watches) keep climbing.

London's Art Season Roars Back
- After the record Lewis Collection sale, Christie's quietly sold around 100 works from the Zabludowicz collection for some $20M. Two major single-owner collections to market in one week, both finding buyers, signals confidence has returned to the top of the art trade.

Experiences Over Things, and "Inheritourism"
- CNBC reports luxury money is flowing to experiences over goods: experiences (travel, events, dining) are set to grow 3 to 7 percent versus low-single-digit growth for goods, with cruises drawing first-timers. The trend it calls "inheritourism" is wealthy families traveling together, as a younger, inheriting generation takes on its parents' taste for travel over status goods.

Quick Hits
- Rolex opened what it bills as the world's highest watch boutique, high in the Swiss Alps.
- Porsche unveiled its first GT4 race car based on the 911, aimed at the track-day crowd.

The Markets (Friday open)
- European luxury opened quietly mixed after a wild week: LVMH down about 0.4 percent, Watches of Switzerland down about 1.3 percent, Pandora the standout, up another 3 percent. Full week's wrap on Closing Price tonight.

Also from ALT/FNDATA:
- Closing Price — this evening at 5 PM ET (week in review)
- Open Bid returns Monday at 6 AM ET

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Sharon Obuobi

What is Open Bid — Daily Morning Briefing on Auctions, Luxury & Markets?

Open Bid is your weekday-morning briefing on the world of luxury and collectibles. In under five minutes, host Sharon Obuobi covers the biggest stories across fine art, jewelry, watches, handbags, and collector cars — the record auction results, the moves inside the luxury houses, and what the markets are doing that morning — all backed by proprietary data from ALT/FNDATA. Whether you collect, invest, or just love this world, it's the fastest way to start the day informed.

Learn more at www.altfndata.com.

OPEN BID — Friday, June 26, 2026

[INTRO]

Good morning. It's Friday, June 26. I'm Sharon, and this is Open Bid from ALT/FNDATA.

Today: Bain and Company trims its forecast for the luxury market, but the very top is still booming. London's art season roars back to life, along with the rise of experiences and what CNBC calls "inheritourism," and we have new arrivals from Rolex and Porsche. Plus Closing Price wraps the week tonight.

This episode of Open Bid is brought to you by ALT/FNDATA, the market intelligence platform for insights on the luxury markets and related public equities. With a membership, you can unlock access to dashboards, reports and cutting-edge insights to keep your finger on the pulse of the market and drive your competitive advantage. Learn more at altfndata.com/membership.

[THE BAIN FORECAST, A MARKET SPLIT]

We begin with the most closely watched number in luxury. Bain and Company, with the Italian trade group Altagamma, released its mid-year report this week, and it trimmed the outlook. Bain now expects the personal luxury goods market to grow just 2 to 4 percent this year, a more cautious call than before, after a punishing first half due the Middle East conflict that spiked oil prices, US inflation at its highest in years, consumer confidence at record lows, and the European Central Bank's first interest-rate hike since 2023.

But step past the headline, and you find the split we keep returning to. Bain's caution is about the broad market, the entry-level handbag and the aspirational shopper. The very top is another story altogether. This week alone, a single Modigliani sold for 63.9 million dollars in London, and in our own data with the year's top results, we have a 25.6 million dollar jade necklace, along with Ferraris and watches clearing eight figures which keep climbing. The middle of the market is what's wobbling while the top has rarely looked stronger.

[LONDON'S ART SEASON, ROARING BACK]

That strength is reviving a London art season that began the year in a funk. After the record-breaking Lewis Collection sale we covered yesterday, Christie's has now quietly sold around 100 works from the collection of the Zabludowicz family for 20 million dollars. With two major single-owner collections coming to market in a single week, and both finding buyers, this is a strong signal that confidence is returning to the top of the art trade, at least in London.

[EXPERIENCES OVER THINGS, AND INHERITOURISM]

And here is where that luxury money is increasingly going: not to things, but to experiences. According to CNBC, luxury goods face only low single-digit growth this year, while spending on experiences, from travel to events to dining, is set to grow 3 to 7 percent. Cruises in particular are pulling in first-time buyers. CNBC points to a trend it calls 'inheritourism': wealthy families traveling together, as a younger, inheriting generation adopts its parents' taste for travel over status symbols. It is the same story Bain is telling, from a different angle. The market for buying things is maturing, while the market for doing things is not.

[QUICK HITS, ROLEX AND PORSCHE]

We have two quick arrivals to note. Rolex has opened what it bills as the world's highest watch boutique, high in the Swiss Alps.

And Porsche unveiled its first GT4 race car built on the 911, aimed squarely at the track-day crowd and gentleman racers.

[THE MARKETS, A QUIET FRIDAY OPEN]

Finally, the markets are limping to the finish of a wild week. After days of a tech selloff and then a luxury rebound, the European luxury names opened quietly mixed this morning, most of them barely changed. LVMH slipped about 0.4 percent and Watches of Switzerland about 1.3 percent, while the standout, again, was the Danish jeweler Pandora, up another 3 percent. We will have the full week's wrap tonight on Closing Price.

[OUTRO]

That's it on Open Bid for today, Friday, June 26. Closing Price wraps a wild week this evening at 5 PM Eastern.

For insights on the data behind today's stories, the ALT/FNDATA membership gives you access to a rich library of market data dashboards, reports and insights. Get started at altfndata.com/membership or reach us anytime at [e-mail].

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I'm Sharon, from ALT/FNDATA. I'll talk with you in the next episode