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- Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com
- Indiana Cash Rents and Land Values
- SFarmMarketing.com Ag Energies with Dave Chatterton
- Don Day, DayWeather.com
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- Indiana Cash Rents and Land Values
- SFarmMarketing.com Ag Energies with Dave Chatterton
- Don Day, DayWeather.com
Creators and Guests
What is Closing Market Report?
Celebrating 40 Years | 10,000 Episodes
Established 1985
The Closing Market Report airs weekdays at 2:06pm central on WILL AM580, Urbana. University of Illinois Extension Farm Broadcaster Todd Gleason hosts the program. Each day he asks commodity analysts about the trade in Chicago, delves deep into the global growing regions weather, and talks with ag economists, entomologists, agronomists, and others involved in agriculture at the farm and industry level.
website: willag.org
twitter: @commodityweek
From the land to Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It's the September 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Bloem at totalfarmmarketing.com. She's in West Bend, Wisconsin.
Todd Gleason:I'll tell you about the upcoming webinar from the PharmDoc team on farmland values and cash rents, and we'll hear from Todd Keethe at Purdue about the same topic in Indiana and he'll put those into context as it's related to The United States and the Midwest or the I States in this case. And then as we wrap up our time together, we'll talk with Dave Chatterton from Strategic Farm Marketing about the agricultural energies and hear from Don Day at Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming about a possible change in pattern coming at the end of the month on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.0rg. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. December corn for the day settled at $4.29 and a half, up six and a quarter. The March at $4.47, six higher, and November beans at $10.49 and three quarters, up seven. January, ten sixty nine and a quarter. Seven and a half higher. Bean meal, 60¢ higher. Bean oil, up 93¢. Soft red winter wheat in the December, 9 higher for the day.
Todd Gleason:The hard red December, up 9 and a half cents. Live cattle futures finished the afternoon, a dollar and 12 and a half cents lower for the day. Naomi Blohm from totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hello, Naomi. Thank you much for being with us.
Todd Gleason:It is a turnaround Tuesday. We were kinda hopeful that would be the case after the market jumped on Friday in the face of what was a pretty bearish USDA report. What'd you make of today's trade?
Naomi Blohm:Well, I love that December corn was able to close above $4.25. We got close to filling that gap from fourth of July weekend, on that December corn chart, but the technical momentum is actually still positive for corn and soybeans both. November beans got above $10.50 for a little while this morning, but we're gonna close right near that at the end of the day today. And the market just continues to shrug off the bearish numbers on paper from the USDA because of the uncertainty of where the yield is actually going to be ending up. We're hearing consistently from clients in the Eastern Midwest that that bean crop might be a little bit troubled with the beans.
Naomi Blohm:They're saying that the plant looks okay, there's pods on the plant, but there's just little b b's inside those pods, and so they're a little concerned of what the yield might be. And on the corn side, the southern rust and the spreading that it had throughout the Western Midwest is starting to take hold and catch some people by surprise. So we're hearing early yield numbers coming in a little bit less than average. Now, of course, it's again early yield numbers, A lot can change. But I think people are maybe saying, you know, it might not be this record number from the USDA, and that's what's keeping the market supported right now.
Todd Gleason:Okay. So the cynic in me says this is much more like a weather market, a drought at the moment late in the season, which would mean it might not last that long, though it might blast much higher very quickly. What are you thinking about the market and which directions it might head?
Naomi Blohm:Well, if we have confirmation of these yields coming in less than average, then from a technical perspective, we've got an inverted head and shoulder formation on December corn that points to four sixty five futures. On the beans, looking at the November beans, so if we get through ten fifty, resistance is at that ten seventy area, but then the swing objective higher would point closer to eleven fifty on the November beans. But that's, again, assuming that all of these yield numbers do come in less than expected, but also helping the market. We've got a lower dollar. If the funds see that the feds lower interest rates tomorrow, that might be supportive for commodities because then the funds who had money parked in money markets because of higher interest rates might come back into commodities, and that would be another reason why we could see prices start to inch higher.
Naomi Blohm:So I'm actually really shaking off the negative tune that I had had from earlier in the summer. You know, earlier in the summer, we had the potential for a record crop. But, again, with all of that heat and humidity and moisture that occurred throughout the Western Midwest for July and early August, it's really potentially affecting the crop. And then, of course, on the Eastern Corn Belt, they didn't get that rain. They had the hot August.
Naomi Blohm:They had, no rain. And, in fact, Iowa State said that Illinois and Missouri both experienced the driest August seen in one hundred and thirty three recorded years. Ohio experienced its second driest August in multiple areas as well. So I think we'll probably see these gray markets in a little bit of a short term holding pattern until we really get some hardcore combine data. But I'm shaking off that negative tune and, just being aware of the possibilities that might unfold here in the coming weeks.
Todd Gleason:Yeah. The data likely to come in sooner rather than later, particularly in the Eastern Corn Belt where it has been dry. Everplace drying down fairly quickly if I, am hearing correctly across the whole of the Midwest, so combines should be rolling really soon in great numbers. We'll get some hard numbers from USDA in the October report as well. That's a ways out at this time.
Todd Gleason:Still, while the supply and demand tables for corn were showing increased consumption, there must be concern as it's related to China and the soybeans. How do you have to factor this into your more friendly tone to the marketplace?
Naomi Blohm:Well, it is definitely a realistic issue that China still has not come to the table yet to purchase our beans. So there's hope that potentially with the trade deal conversations happening between The US and China right now in Spain that maybe later this week or next week, something comes to fruition of that. As far as a trade deal goes for the grain side, my you know, part of me thinks, well, if China's kinda catching wind that potentially our US crop isn't this record crop, maybe they'll wanna come to the table and buy some of our grain sooner than later while it's cheap. So that's something I'm I'm thinking about. But, I mean, to your point, if they don't show up, well, then we have a situation where our exports in the future on USDA reports, that export demand might need to come down a little bit, which could help offset potentially lower yields.
Naomi Blohm:So we do need to keep an eye on that Chinese situation, and then we'll see just in general what weekly export sales have to say this Thursday morning.
Todd Gleason:How concerned do you think that the trade might be, if the deals announced are frameworks as opposed to signed agreements of some sort that really have details in them?
Naomi Blohm:Well, that would be something where there would be disappointment that it's not a legit number that we're seeing on paper that something is gonna be happening. But at the same point, I think that traders would say, Well, at least it's progress, and the door is open. So I I don't know that it would be a reason for the market to fall apart nor rally. It could just be a reason to keep us in a holding pattern, again, until we get a little bit more concrete information on yield.
Todd Gleason:Anything else you're watching before I let you go?
Naomi Blohm:Keep an eye on the cattle markets. We've got a cattle on feed report coming up this Friday afternoon. Prereport estimates came out. The on feed number looking at 99.2%. Placement number coming in low again.
Naomi Blohm:91.3 is the average estimate. Marketed number at 87.1. That'll probably dictate live cattle and feeder cattle prices for next week.
Todd Gleason:Hey. Thanks much. We'll talk to you then.
Naomi Blohm:Yeah. Thank you.
Todd Gleason:Yami Blum is with totalfarmmarketing.com. Hey. Do visit our website at willag.org, willag.0rg, and look in the calendar of events for the farmland values and rental agreements in Illinois for twenty twenty six webinar. That's coming up on Thursday this week. It'll be highlighted in red.
Todd Gleason:If you click on it, you'll find a registration link. It is absolutely free. University of Illinois ag economist Gary Schnitke and Nick Paulson invite you to the webinar. It'll be focused on farmland values and rental agreements for next year. They'll present an overview of the current state of Illinois farmland values and rents and discuss the factors which will impact values and rent negotiations for this fall going into the next growing season for 2026.
Todd Gleason:The webinar will incorporate and rely on data from USDA, the Illinois FBFM, and professional farm managers in the state to provide a range of perspectives. The session, they write, aims to equip both landowners and farmers with knowledge to navigate rental negotiations in a very challenging farm economy that is the farmland values rental agreements in Illinois for twenty twenty six webinar it's coming up on Thursday at eleven a. M. Even if you can't join us at that time, do sign up. It's free, and you'll get the link then eventually to the YouTube video, the archive of this directly in your email.
Todd Gleason:That's the Farmland Values and Rental Agreement coming up Thursday at 11AM Central Time. You can sign up by clicking the red event in the calendar at willag.org or simply going to farmdocdaily.illinois.edu and looking under the webinars tab. Stay with us. We'll hear Purdue's take on farmland values next. Well, the value of farmland in the Midwest, particularly the Iowa states of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana, hasn't always been exceptional when compared to the rest of The United States.
Todd Gleason:Since before President Abraham Lincoln established USDA in 1862, until about 1950 in fact, all US farmland was about the same price. The widespread adoption of hybrid seed corn was the seed change that set the Midwest apart and it began to outpace the value of farmland in other parts of the nation. It was the export market in the nineteen seventies that really changed things. Here's how Todd Keethey from Purdue University explains it.
Todd Kuethe:But really starting in the early seventies to mid seventies is when you really start to see a gap between Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, and The US in aggregate. And then among those three states, the I states, Iowa seems to be the most dynamic. It has the steepest inclines and declines. And then Indiana, at least over sort of the last kind of fifteen to twenty years, has been sort of the most stable. And in a lot of years, sort of the lowest, even though he's kinda hanging in the middle between Illinois and Iowa.
Todd Kuethe:And then also because I I used to work in the University of Illinois, I started putting this together because the farmers would like, there's a rivalry between Iowa and Illinois. Anytime I would say, like, the Iowa numbers went down, the crowd would cheer. And I I can't not have something the crowd would cheer for.
Todd Gleason:But to be honest, they probably should not have cheered. The rivalry, it's great. However, Iowa, as the most dynamic land market, tends to lead with both the highest highs and the steepest declines.
Todd Kuethe:I've heard a number of people say that what happens in Indiana happened in Iowa last year.
Todd Gleason:Iowa's cash rents for this crop season were down about $20 an acre. Illinois was down about $5 an acre, and Indiana cash rents this year increased one and a half to 2 percent statewide, continuing a trend from previous years. The price of Indiana farmland likewise has not yet followed the trend lower. Iowa State's farmland values survey released in December showed a drop of about 3% on average. That's far different than Indiana.
Todd Kuethe:Yeah. So if we look at the survey results across the state of Indiana, we've seen sort of middle level increases. I mean, so thinking about, like, 2020, 2021, where we had, like, a real uptick. We're not there, but they're not exactly flat. They're moving up a little bit higher than the rate of inflation, but we've seen sort of a sort of three to seven or 8% increase across the state for top quality land.
Todd Kuethe:We're now looking at almost $15,000 an acre, $14.08 26. For average, we're at $12.02 50. And then at the poor quality land, we're looking at about 9,761, I guess, is what we have here. So about almost 10,000 per acre.
Todd Gleason:If you search YouTube for farmland values Purdue, you'll find two recent AgCast videos from Todd Keathey, one on land for sale and one on land for rent. And the University of Illinois team will make a similar presentation this Thursday at eleven a. M. Central Time. You may sign up for it on the PharmDoc website under the webinars tab or you can visit our website wilag.org willag.org and look for it in the calendar.
Todd Gleason:If you click on that red calendar event, you'll also find the registration link. It is free. The farmland values webinar is Thursday at eleven a. M. It too will be on YouTube.
Todd Gleason:You can find that again on the PharmDoc website after the fact. But if you sign up, you'll get notification that it's been pushed out to the marketplace, and you may watch it at any time on demand. Each Tuesday, we take a look at the agricultural energies. Dave Chatterton is now here from Strategic Farm Marketing to discuss what the fall might look like as it's related to diesel supplies and other items. Thank you, Dave, for taking some time with me.
Todd Gleason:You've been watching this, I know, closely. What are you telling producers about, fall and the supplies they'll need? Not only diesel, but propane too, I would think.
Dave Chatterton:Yeah, Todd. Mean, hopefully, you folks have gotten a little bit of a head start. We are getting into the heart of the season here, and prices, on queue have been ticking a little bit higher here. And combination of, you know, what appears on paper to be kind of a bearish fundamental outlook for the oil complex, but geopolitical tension is really complicating that. And in particular, we've had Ukraine kind of, you know, increasing or intensifying their attacks on the Russian oil infrastructure here of late and over the weekend attacking, you know, one of their top refineries and shutting it partially shutting it down and doing so in an effort to kinda limit their exports and their ability to raise cash for war funds, if you will.
Dave Chatterton:And you throw it on top of that that, you know, just the the normal, you know, inventory situation here that we have in the fall, which has improved a little bit in terms of US diesel fuel stocks and Midwest diesel fuel stocks, but not to the degree to make us feel comfortable. And I think the risk here, Todd, is to the upside. So we're definitely buyers on brakes here going forward. I think you can continue to look for a lot of volatility in these fuel prices here over the next thirty and sixty days as we kind of sort out an interest rate cut and Fed policy and where the dollar is going to go and the China US negotiations and kind of all the things that are in that pile. But at the end of the day, the trend here looks like it's turned up a little bit.
Dave Chatterton:I think you need to be a little bit more cautious of know, getting your tanks a little bit on the on the fuller side here.
Todd Gleason:The Federal Reserve will this week, update, its policy as it's related to interest rates. I think a quarter to a half percent is expected in the way of a cut. What would your expectations be for the impact it might have on the marketplace?
Dave Chatterton:Yeah. Think we've baked that into a large degree, Todd. Mean, the anticipation is there that both Wall Street and I think Washington are both, you know, a 100% in on the on that rate cut. Whether it's a quarter or a half, I think what it does is set a process in motion where we're going to get those additional cuts by the end of the year and kind of keep the market moving in that direction. That's weakened the dollar, know that's helping you know to some degree U.
Dave Chatterton:S. Oil exports and other things. So it's supportive at least on the initial blush. The debt that comes on the back end of that we'll have to save for another I guess discussion going forward here. But at the end of the day the market sees it as a net net winner and we've seen the reaction to that whether it's in crude or whether it's in the refined fuels or the propane market as well here.
Todd Gleason:Well, let's do turn our attention to the propane market. It looks like, to this point, could be a dry and early fall that would be less need for propane. Do you see those, prices stabilizing or moving in a different direction?
Dave Chatterton:Yeah, Todd. I think they've been pretty stable and I think they'll continue to do that. We've been really in a captive range since July or mid July on these propane values in the Midwest. And there is certainly some demand for drying this fall, but as you mentioned, because of the August weather and kind of this hot flash that we're having here in mid September, we're in a situation where moisture is dropping pretty quickly and and you know the demand just does not seem to be there at the moment. Now normally propane will try and attach itself to crude oil.
Dave Chatterton:You know if crude oil goes up there'll be some upward price pressure and there could be some degree of that but I think it's pretty modest. So less urgency there to act or or have tanks full. We're not really looking out for next spring or next fall in terms of of getting contracts. Now,
Dave Chatterton:an abundance of propane supply in The US here at the moment.
Todd Gleason:Is there anything else you're watching that I should have asked you about this week?
Dave Chatterton:Yeah Todd, I think it's interesting here. We're watching you know the ethanol situation here. We're seeing you know producer margins kind of at the really the best numbers are challenging the best numbers that they have for all of 2025. And so you know we've got a lot of demand baked into this U. S.
Dave Chatterton:Balance sheet going forward. You know the rise in the energy market creates the blending opportunities while we're waiting for additional I guess you know guidance on the biofuels mandates and on these waivered you know blending requirements etc. So certainly, that's a positive here, and I think one of the things that's helping to lift corn here as we go forward.
Todd Gleason:Thank you much. I appreciate it.
Dave Chatterton:Thank you, Tom.
Todd Gleason:You're welcome. Dave Chatterton is with Strategic Farm Marketing, joined us on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. He'll be back this week on Thursday afternoon to record our commodity week program along with Mike Zuzlow and Kurt Kimmel. Commodity week is our weekly look at what's happened in the world of agriculture. It's generally posted to the website by about 6PM on Thursday evenings airs on our home station on Friday afternoons and many of these radio stations over the weekend.
Todd Gleason:Of course, you can find it at willag.0rg. That's willag.org. Now let's turn our attention to the weather forecast. Donde is here from Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Hello, Don.
Todd Gleason:Thank you much for being with us today. Do you have beautiful weather today in Cheyenne?
Don Day:It's little fallish. I've got some showers around. Temperatures are only in the sixties, so there's a hint of autumn in the air.
Todd Gleason:Oh, sounds kind of for us almost. A little high for the temperatures for November. However, that rainfall, is it working its way this way, and might we get some of it by the weekend, or is that a different system that we'll be watching?
Don Day:No. It's it's a similar system that, basically a slow moving system that's come out of the Pacific Northwest that's gonna take a while to transit the Northern Rockies, but it's gonna make for some really cool wet weather across the Dakotas, across Nebraska, over the next forty eight hours. As we get into tomorrow night, we get into Thursday and Friday, we're gonna see those showers and thunderstorms spread east into Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, down into Missouri. And then during the day, Friday, those showers and thunderstorms will then extend further out into the central and eastern areas the Corn Belt, and we'll probably hang around along with some cool temperatures through the weekend and may not exit the area till maybe Tuesday or Wednesday. So there's gonna be some cooler and wet weather, especially for the Northern And Western Western Corn Cornfield.
Don Day:Belt.
Todd Gleason:Okay. So it's about the twenty first of the month or thereabouts. Change of season sometimes brings a change of pattern. Is that what we're seeing?
Don Day:We see that, but not until the weekend after this one. So let's go forward and talk about the weekend of the twenty seventh, twenty eighth, and into those October. That's where we see a realignment of the jet stream. One thing we're seeing on our on our extended forecast models is the jet stream across the North Pacific. We're talking around the illusions off the coast of British Columbia.
Don Day:In about ten days. It's showing a really strong jet stream wind developing at 30,000 feet. When we see that during this time of year, that's a harbinger of change because what that jet stream wind will do is it reaches North America, it will buckle, it'll cause some curvature in the wind flow that causes the high pressure systems and the low pressure systems to get a bit stronger as they come in that is likely going to bring that bigger temperature change to, let's say, a more serious event in terms of colder weather for a good part of the Lower 48, especially the central part of the country, right as we get into the new month, either right at the September, those first couple of days of October. That is where we see the bigger change happening.
Todd Gleason:Now sometimes those can really dip a finger deep into the Lower 48. I know it's a long ways out. Is this that kind of change or something that will be Upper Midwest?
Don Day:Due to the strength of that jet stream wind I'm seeing, this is where you do have a pretty good penetration of that cold air. Now the trick will be, is it gonna be, as you mentioned, it's gonna be more towards the Central US or more towards the Western US. And that's something that we'll have to look at because I think it's a flip of a coin right now. As we get closer, hopefully, we'll have a better idea.
Todd Gleason:We'll check-in with you again next week and see how it evolves. Thanks much.
Don Day:Thank you.
Todd Gleason:Dundee is with day weather. Joined us on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. Find us online. Listen to us on demand anytime you'd like at willag.0rg. I'm Todd Gleason.