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Thinking about buying your first home but overwhelmed by mortgage news, rising rates, and confusing headlines? The Mortgage Research Network Podcast is your no-fluff, data-backed guide to the housing market. We break down the latest trends, stories, and research from MortgageResearch.com into simple, clear insights you can actually use. Hosted with first-time buyers in mind, each episode helps you understand what’s happening in the market and how to use that knowledge to make smarter decisions, from locking in a great rate to choosing the right time to buy. Empowering you with the facts, confidence, and tools to become a homeowner one episode at a time.
Welcome to the Mortgage Research Network Podcast. We bring you the latest mortgage and real estate news 3 times a week. The audio is AI generated, but content is fact-checked by me, Tim Lucas, editor of MortgageResearch.com and a former mortgage professional. And with me is Craig Berry, a mortgage originator with 25 years experience. Craig, the housing market has been absolutely wild. We've seen three straight years of record prices, doubled mortgage rates, and the lowest sales in 30 years. But here's what's really mind-blowing: experts say we're still short 4.7 million homes nationwide.
Those numbers are staggering, and it really shows how complex this recovery is going to be. What are the predictions looking like for 2026?
Most economists are expecting home prices to rise just 2-4% nationally, which is WAY down from pandemic years. But Mike Simonson from Compass is even more conservative, predicting just half a percent growth.
That's quite a shift from what we've seen. Though I noticed there's still no sign of a housing crash on the horizon.
Right, and there are some really solid reasons for that. Mortgage delinquencies are at historic lows, just 3.42%, and homeowners are sitting on this massive pile of equity - we're talking $17.8 trillion. That's an incredible cushion against any market downturn.
And don't forget about that persistent inventory shortage, though it varies dramatically by region.
The regional differences are fascinating. Take Connecticut. They have 65% fewer homes available than before the pandemic. Meanwhile, some markets in Florida and Texas are actually facing oversupply after all that aggressive building during the boom.
It's almost like we're seeing two completely different housing markets playing out across the country.
Exactly! And here's what's really interesting about the West Coast. Even people with good jobs in places like California or Seattle often can't qualify for mortgages there. The rates make such an outsized impact in these expensive markets that even small rate changes can determine whether someone can buy or not.
Speaking of rates, what are we expecting for 2026? Because that's really been the story these past few years.
Well, most forecasts are saying we'll still be above 6% throughout 2026. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun was pretty direct about it - he basically said people need to stop hoping for 3%, 4%, or 5% rates because those days are gone. Though he did mention anything below 6% would be a "bonus."
So what's keeping these rates so high?
Uncertainty is playing a huge role. Trade policies have investors cautious, which keeps those bond yields high. But here's another fascinating shift. There are now as many people with mortgages at 6% or higher as those with 3% or lower rates, says Simonsen.
That's quite a change in the market dynamics. How is that affecting sales predictions?
Well, NAR is actually pretty optimistic, projecting a 10-20% increase in home sales for 2026. But Fannie Mae is more conservative, forecasting about 4.46 million existing-home sales, which would be roughly a 9.2% increase. And even high-income buyers are starting to pull back on spending.
Though I noticed inventory is finally starting to improve - they're talking about a 5-10% increase in available homes.
Yeah, and what's fascinating is how we got here. We've had 22 straight months of inventory growth, reaching 4.6 months of supply. Compare that to just 0.6 months during the pandemic boom. But we're still about 10% below 2019 levels nationally.
So what should buyers and sellers be thinking about as they look toward 2026?
Well, the experts are in agreement about not timing the market. If you find a house you can afford and want to live in, that's probably more important than waiting for some perfect moment. But here's what's interesting. Buyers might have more negotiating power than they realize, especially on homes that need work or have been sitting on the market.
It sounds like flexibility is going to be key.
Absolutely right. Like that fascinating example from Washington, D.C. There's an oversupply of condos but a shortage of single-family homes. So buyers who are willing to adjust their expectations might find better opportunities than they expected. You know, after the wild ride we've been on since 2022, maybe a slower, more predictable market isn't such a bad thing.
That's about all the time we have for this topic, but we go into even more detail on the site. For more, search 2026 housing market forecast at Mortgage research.com. We'll see you next time on the Mortgage Research Network Podcast.