Closing Market Report

The July 8, 2026, edition of the *Closing Market Report* covered commodity market fluctuations, regional agricultural updates, and international weather conditions. Farm broadcaster Todd Gleason hosted the program, noting that while the final numbers from the CME Group were unavailable, grain markets faced downward pressure due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, contrasting with a notable rise in crude oil prices. Greg Johnson of Total Grain Marketing discussed a 50% retracement on corn charts following the June crop report, outlining local crop conditions in Illinois and evaluating market dynamics like basis levels and Chinese export demand. The broadcast previewed four upcoming University of Illinois Extension and Crop Sciences field days across July, including events at the Orr Center, Heyworth, Monmouth, and Dixon Springs. Finally, Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. provided an ag weather outlook, highlighting severe heat and moisture deficits hitting the northwestern Corn Belt and northern Plains, alongside extreme drought stress affecting crops across France and parts of Western Europe.

00:58 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing
08:56 Four Field Days to Close Out July
12:11 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc.

★ Support this podcast ★

Creators and Guests

Host

Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸

University of Illinois

What is Closing Market Report?

Established 1985

The Closing Market Report airs weekdays at 2:06pm central on WILL AM580, Urbana. University of Illinois Extension Farm Broadcaster Todd Gleason hosts the program. Each day he asks commodity analysts about the trade in Chicago, delves deep into the global growing regions weather, and talks with ag economists, entomologists, agronomists, and others involved in agriculture at the farm and industry level.

website: willag.org
twitter: @commodityweek

cmr260708

00:58 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing
08:56 Four Field Days to Close Out July
12:11 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc.

---

Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the eighth day of July 2026. I am Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason, away from the office this afternoon. A good story is involved with that; I will tell you about it later. There is no update on the final numbers from the CME Group in Chicago. However, we will hear about the commodity markets from Greg Johnson at TGM, Total Grain Marketing, right here in Champaign County. We have a solid discussion with him, followed by a great discussion regarding the weather forecast with Drew Lerner at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City, all on this Wednesday afternoon edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online and on-demand at willag.org.

Announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

00:58 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing

Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson joins us from Total Grain Marketing, TGM, right here in Champaign County. Hi Greg, thank you for being with us.

Greg Johnson: Good to be with you, Todd.

Todd Gleason: Tell me about this marketplace. It has been an interesting week so far.

Greg Johnson: Today we are lower. The market is concerned about fears of a resumption of a conflict in the Middle East. These fears are weighing on just about everything today except crude oil. Crude oil is up about $6 a barrel, but stocks and all other commodities are down. That is a one-day reaction and it could change completely in 24 hours. Other than that, we have had a nice run-back since the June 30th crop report came out. We dodged a bullet. The corn acres were no higher than they were in March. They were higher in soybeans, but demand is offsetting that increase in acres. Back on May 13th, December corn hit $5 on the board, and then we lost 75 cents, dropping to $4.25 on June 30th. Now we have gained 40 cents back. On the old crop, we lost 80 cents and have gained 40 back. That is exactly a 50% retracement on the corn charts, which is a good place for farmers to consider increasing sales, unless you believe we will be hot and dry in July and August.

There is more rain in the forecast for us this weekend. The models are split for next week. The European model has us getting anywhere from one to two inches of rain next week over a big part of the Midwest. The American model looks drier. Either way, we have been so wet that a week of dry weather would not be problematic. Corn prices have rallied, and it will likely take weather issues to push corn higher than its current level. For soybeans, weather or an increase in Chinese demand could boost prices. There have been several boatloads reported sold to China just in the last couple of days. Carryout is extremely tight on soybeans at 310 million bushels. If you lower the yield by a bushel and a half, that drops to 200 million bushels. Weather on corn and the wildcard of China demand on soybeans has the market unsure of direction. From a technical point of view, we have gained back roughly half of what we lost from the May 13th high to the June 30th low.

Todd Gleason: Tell me what conditions are like on the ground for corn and soybeans in your draw area at the moment. There is a lot of tasseling corn in the region.

Greg Johnson: I think corn is in better shape than the beans. Corn can handle the wet weather much better. There are obviously issues; only 60% of Illinois’ corn is rated good or excellent, while many other states are in the 70s. We seem to be in one of the poorer areas, meaning an 80-acre field might lose five acres to ponds, but the remaining 75 acres will be fine. This is not a disaster. We might have a slightly below-average yield, but other states will make up for that. We are looking at something close to a trendline yield. USDA is using 183. It all boils down to whether we continue to receive rains in July and August. At this point, the crop in central Illinois does not look as good as it has the last couple of years, but it remains viable.

Todd Gleason: Do fall delivery cash bids reflect this, meaning is the basis narrower in the eastern Corn Belt than the western Corn Belt? There is a lot of wet weather here, and apparently, a lot of grain is still in storage out west.

Greg Johnson: There is not as much storage in the eastern Corn Belt as in the western Corn Belt, so we are seeing basis levels weaker in the west versus the east. Here, we cannot store both the entire new crop corn and new crop soybeans. We are hopeful that China buys soybeans and we see a fall bean export program. We need a September, October, and November soybean export program to alleviate the storage crunch this fall. Things look optimistic right now, but we will have to wait and see.

Todd Gleason: When do elevator managers make decisions regarding basis and storage space?

Greg Johnson: Usually, it is after pollination. If everything looks great, basis levels tend to start weakening on corn. On beans, we hold on to see if China will actually purchase and drive an export program. If they do not, soybean basis will eventually weaken as well.

Todd Gleason: So we have roughly 20 days on corn?

Greg Johnson: I do not believe we will see new crop corn basis weaken for another two to three weeks. If everything still looks good in three weeks, farmers may want to consider locking in basis.

Todd Gleason: That represents a normal seasonal pattern. What other factors are you watching? The World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates are out on Friday morning at 11 a.m.

Greg Johnson: We are not looking for major changes there yet. We remain concerned that USDA will mysteriously find more corn acres as they did last year, though that did not happen last year until the September crop report. We have plenty of corn. A 2 billion bushel carryout, using 95.3 million acres and a 182 yield instead of 183, equates to a 15.9 billion bushel corn supply. Demand was 16.2 last year, so perhaps 16.1 this year. Feed demand remains slightly high, which is a 200 million reduction in carryout. That moves carryout from 2 billion to 1.8. However, 1.8 billion bushels does not equal $5 corn. We could see a retest of the $4.25 December lows this fall if we have something close to a normal crop.

Todd Gleason: The USDA WASDE is produced by the World Ag Outlook Board, informed by NASS numbers. Friday is a World Ag Outlook Board report only. They can access FSA acreage numbers as they come in, and NASS utilizes them for the August crop production reports. We will talk with you again next week. Anything else before I let you go?

Greg Johnson: That is about it, Todd.

Todd Gleason: Thank you, Greg.

Greg Johnson: Thanks, Todd.

Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson is with TGM, Total Grain Marketing.

08:56 Four Field Days to Close Out July

Todd Gleason: Let me take you through the calendar of events over the next couple of weeks. Next week, starting on Wednesday the 15th, the Orr Agricultural Research and Demonstration Center will host a field day in western Illinois at Baylis. It runs from 8:30 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. Many crop scientists from the University of Illinois will be on-site to answer questions directly. The following day, Thursday the 16th, the Illinois Soybean Association will hold its Agronomy Farm Field Day outside of Heyworth. You can find more information and register for these events online at willag.org. Look in the calendar; these will be highlighted in red.

For the Illinois Soybean Association event on the 16th, they are calling it “Focus on the Farm.” Abigail Peterson will discuss agronomy related to soybeans, and Dr. Iliana Monteverde from the University of Illinois Crop Sciences Soybean Breeding Services will present.

The following week features a couple of additional events. On Tuesday the 22nd, the Monmouth Field Day will take place in the Galesburg area. In deep southern Illinois, on Thursday the 23rd, the Dixon Springs Agricultural Center will hold their annual Beef Field Day. This is an evening event starting at 5:15 p.m. and includes supper. Details and registration links for all events are available in the calendar at willag.org. This marks a very busy two weeks for University of Illinois Extension and Crop Sciences. You are listening to the Closing Market Report.

Announce: Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer, Tim Gleason.

12:11 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc.

Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention to the weather forecast for the growing regions. We will check in on France and Western Europe, but the primary focus is the Corn Belt as we enter pollination. Joining us is Drew Lerner from World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. There are concerns regarding extreme heat; what is your assessment?

Drew Lerner: It depends entirely on location. This weekend and next week, the primary heat zone will impact the northwestern Corn Belt and the northern Plains. Temperatures in South Dakota and eastern Montana will approach or reach 110 degrees for roughly three days. Following that, temperatures will remain in the 90s. Some heat will extend into Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, but it should only last a day or two before returning to seasonal norms.

There is minimal rain in the forecast for the next 10 days in the northern Plains and northwestern Corn Belt, which is a poor scenario. We received heavy rain last night near Aberdeen, South Dakota, with amounts exceeding four inches, but it was highly localized. With 100-degree temperatures, it only takes two afternoons to deplete that moisture across the broader region. Crop and livestock stress will be severe in the northern Plains from Sunday through Tuesday. The rest of the Midwest will see scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next few days, maintaining soil moisture in drier areas of Ohio and other pockets. It will turn drier in the eastern and central Midwest next week as a high-pressure ridge remains close. As we approach the end of next week, a low-pressure trough from eastern Canada will push the ridge westward into the Rocky Mountains, allowing scattered showers and cooler air to return to the Midwest. The primary concern remains the northern Plains, northwestern Corn Belt, and parts of Nebraska. Most other Midwest areas will stay in relatively good shape.

Todd Gleason: According to Monday’s USDA crop progress release, North Dakota had not started silking; normally they would be at 3%. South Dakota is at 3%, compared to a 2% average. Kansas is at 41% silked, well past their 30% average, indicating they are deep into pollination. Nebraska is at 10% silked, right on average. What does the final two-week outlook for July indicate across the Corn Belt?

Drew Lerner: Once the high-pressure ridge is pushed west, it will likely remain there and not return to the Missouri River basin or the western Corn Belt. We anticipate a weak northwesterly flow pattern over the western Corn Belt, bringing periodic showers and near-normal temperatures. The eastern and central Midwest will experience a higher frequency of scattered showers and normal to slightly cooler temperatures. We should finish July in this pattern. If the ridge returns to the western Corn Belt, it will likely be in the second or third week of August.

Todd Gleason: If you had to assess the weather’s impact on the corn crop right now, what would your conclusion be?

Drew Lerner: For the bulk of the Midwest, this event will provide more benefit than detriment. However, in South Dakota, northwestern Iowa, southwestern Minnesota, and parts of Nebraska, we will likely shave off some yield. It depends heavily on precise location and variable soil moisture. Areas facing multiple days of 100-degree heat will see yields drop below trend. If the extreme heat is limited to just a couple of days in Iowa and Minnesota, the impact may be low, provided we receive follow-up rain. If follow-up rain fails, we will lose additional yield regardless of hitting the 100-degree mark.

Todd Gleason: Minnesota is currently at 4% silked compared to a 5% average. Iowa is at 8%, with a 10% average. Turning abroad, what does the situation in France look like today?

Drew Lerner: France is a different situation entirely. They irrigate 53% of their summer crops, which mitigates some loss. However, they have received less than half of their normal precipitation since March, and less than 25% over the past seven weeks. They recently experienced temperatures between 100 and 112 degrees. While it cooled briefly, temperatures reached 108 in western France yesterday. There is no significant rain volume forecasted for them over the next 10 days. The scattered showers expected will only provide a tenth to half an inch, which is insufficient to counter evaporation or replace deficits.

Stress in France will continue. Germany is quickly drying out, as is the UK and parts of Italy. Even Eastern Europe is reporting dryness, though their temperatures and subsoil moisture profiles are much more favorable. The critical downward trends are focused on France, western Germany, and southern UK crop areas. If substantial rain does not arrive by late July or early August, recovery will be highly difficult.

Todd Gleason: We will continue tracking it with you. Thank you, I appreciate it.

Drew Lerner: Have a good week.

Todd Gleason: Drew Lerner is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City, joining us on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online and on-demand at willag.org or in your favorite podcast applications. I am University of Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason.

More episodes

Chapters

Creators and Guests

What is Closing Market Report?