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- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net
- Chad Hart, Iowa State University
- Mark Russo, EverStream.ai
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- Chad Hart, Iowa State University
- Mark Russo, EverStream.ai
Creators and Guests
What is Closing Market Report?
Celebrating 40 Years | 10,000 Episodes
Established 1985
The Closing Market Report airs weekdays at 2:06pm central on WILL AM580, Urbana. University of Illinois Extension Farm Broadcaster Todd Gleason hosts the program. Each day he asks commodity analysts about the trade in Chicago, delves deep into the global growing regions weather, and talks with ag economists, entomologists, agronomists, and others involved in agriculture at the farm and industry level.
website: willag.org
twitter: @commodityweek
From the land grant university in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report. This is the November 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Kurt Kimmel.
Todd Gleason:He's at agmarket.net. We'll get an update of what's been happening out west as it's related to the Tyson Foods closure of the beef processing plant in Nebraska, and we'll also talk about the corn and soybean markets and how they're impacted. All of that with Chad Hart, extension agricultural economist at Iowa State University, and then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast. Mark Russo will be here as we close out our time together. He is with Everstream Analytics.
Todd Gleason:Stay with us at willag.org, willag.org, where on our website you can today purchase your tickets for the Farm Assets Conference and the Illinois Farm Economic Summits coming up in the middle of the month of December. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. December corn for the day at $4.23 and 3 quarters, a penny and 3 quarters of a cent lower, the March at $4.36 and 3 quarters down three quarters, and May corn a half lower at $4.44 and a quarter cents. January soybeans, a penny and 3 quarters lower per bushel at $11.23 and a quarter, the March at $11.32 down two and a quarter, and November beans, four and three quarters of a cent higher for next year. That's new crop at $11.16 and 3 quarters of a cent.
Todd Gleason:Bean meal futures off 90¢. The bean oil, 8¢ lower. Wheat futures, soft red, down four and three quarters in the December at $5.22 and a quarter. The hard red most active at $5.00 7 at a quarter, down three and three quarters of a cent for the day. Live cattle futures down $7.25 at two zero seven fifty two and a half.
Todd Gleason:Feeders at three zero four ninety seven and a half down $9.25, and lean hogs gained a buck and 47 and a half cents per 100 pounds and finished at $79.17 and a half cents. Crude oil, $58.76 a barrel, up 70¢. Diesel fuel or heating oil at about 3¢ lower, $2.36 and 2 tenths of a cent. The wholesale price of gasoline today, a penny and a tenth higher to a dollar 82 and a half. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is about 241 points higher.
Todd Gleason:The S and P 500 is around a 101, a 102 points higher for the day. Here to talk about these numbers is Kurt Kimmel. He is with agmarket.net out of Normal, Illinois. Hi, Kurt. Thanks for being with us.
Curt Kimmel:Glad to be here, Ty, for a shortened trading week.
Todd Gleason:Yeah. So that is something I want to talk about. It's a shortened trading week, and oftentimes, it's either the bears or the bulls that have Thanksgiving and maybe the opposite, which has Christmas. I suppose we might be looking for Christmas at this point, but I don't know. You tell me.
Curt Kimmel:Yeah. We're, at this rate, bears are kinda having their way. Oftentimes, you have a a lower turning trend, but a lower going into Thanksgivings, kind of a classic whereas the seasons are up into the middle, late December, whenever we do trend lower going into the end of the month. For us that are bullish, hopefully that's the case here to see that, take place. Most interest has gone through the sidelines just due to the fact that, we'll have no market on Thursday or Thursday evening.
Curt Kimmel:Trade will resume, 08:30 Friday morning and trade till about noon on on Friday there. So we'll we're subject to some, volatility here as we, wrap up the week here, Todd.
Todd Gleason:So that volatility could come in many forms. I was pleasantly surprised today that the trade did not take as harshly as I thought it might. News from secretary Rollins that while there is some kind of deal that's happening with China, she doesn't expect that to be finished for at least a week or two. That's kind of new. The trade really had thought that the 12,000,000 metric tons was a finalized thing.
Todd Gleason:Sounds like that might not be the case. Still, they felt not as bad as I thought they might. I suppose that's a good sign going into the end of the year for the bulls as well.
Curt Kimmel:Well, what you don't know won't hurt you, I guess. I tell you. Yeah. If you can figure all that out, let me know I know. For the most part, as far as the commentary, I guess, president Trump did have a post on social media, everything's going good.
Curt Kimmel:Then there was some posts out of China that everything is going good too, but also in those posts out of China is very broad, nothing specific, and they did mention the word, Taiwan in that, article too. And so there's still a lot of moving parts. I think the trade pretty well wore out or kind of in a neutral holding pattern here with the idea that not a whole lot is going to take place. We did see a one twenty hundred three thousand tons being sold to China but on the shipments there's just no way none of this is going to be shipped right away. Actually see a little physical pop up demand from time to time, you know, somewhat encouraging.
Curt Kimmel:But, yeah, there's no way we're gonna see multimillion bean sales here. If that would happen, we'd be locked up limits at least one day or at least for a little bit during the day.
Todd Gleason:Well, we could look forward to that maybe, and we'll see whether, things can move along, if they get to the end of the calendar year, and we'll know more by the well, I guess December 31. I I I wouldn't bet more any sooner than that. We might know, but I don't think and I'm thinking about sales as most as opposed to anything else. South America. At this point, I think corn planting in Brazil is now about 90% done first season, and then soybeans last I think I saw was around 80 or 85% something along those times, but the crop seems to be coming along okay there.
Curt Kimmel:Yeah. They they were scooting along fairly well. Oftentimes, we see the the dry season extend itself, for a few weeks, in November and December, but, they've had some timely rains, some moisture around to work with, so, Argentina's turning just maybe a little bit dry now, but, for the most part there's not a whole lot of weather concern in that Southern hemisphere. Now once we turn the calendar to 2026, it, you know, it could be a different story, but the trade seems fairly, comfortable with their forecast thus far.
Todd Gleason:And then turn your attention, and we'll have an assessment as well from Chad Hart, ag economist at Iowa State to Tyson Foods closing a processing plant in Nebraska. I didn't talk to Chad much about the impact on the marketplace today and what that might look like going forward. What do you think?
Curt Kimmel:Well, it's I I was kinda optimistic until that, happened. We had a catch up cattle feed report there on Friday, and we're still, looking at a tight situation. The October placements was 90%, even the November placements was 93.7%, you know, still very tight. And the market did recover there Friday on on talked at removing some tariffs, meat coming in from or ag products coming in from Brazil. So with this Tyson shutting down, yeah, it'd be an interesting conversation to listen to, but it still does not change the near term fundamental situation of, tight, supplies or or placements and so forth, it does, indicate that, packer can buy it cheaper now and hopefully they'll pass that savings on to the consumer if that's going to be the case.
Todd Gleason:Indeed. Hey. Thank you much. We look forward to talking with you again next week. You have a great holiday season.
Todd Gleason:Well, at least holiday weekend for Thanksgiving.
Curt Kimmel:You bet. Take care, Todd.
Todd Gleason:You too. That is Kurt Kimmel. He is with agmarket.net, joined us here on the closing market report from Illinois public media. You can hear him again up on our website. The address there, of course, is willag.org.
Todd Gleason:More about that website right now. Hey. The winter meeting season is upon us, and we have a couple of great events coming up in the month of December. The Farm Doc team and I will be on the road for the Illinois Economic Summits. That'll be Monday through Wednesday, the fifteenth to the December 17 will be in DeKalb then Peoria and Mount Vernon.
Todd Gleason:And on the Friday before that we'll be in Bloomington for the farm assets conference. These are all great conference. All the details are online at our website ag.org, willag.org. And a way to register for each of them, there's an IFA series link and then of course the farm assets conference link as well. The cost is $80.
Todd Gleason:The IFA series, the Farm Doc team on the road, your banker will be at those. You should be as well. And then the farm assets conference the previous week on Friday the twelfth, that's a day long event. The cost for all of them is $80 each. Register right now at willhe.org.
Todd Gleason:We're now joined by Chad Hart. He's an agricultural economist with Iowa State University Extension and based in Ames. Hi. Thank you for being with us. I bet it's a quiet week on campus there.
Chad Hart:It is a quiet week. It's one of these deals. Students get the entire off for Thanksgiving, and I gotta admit, gives us, you know, faculty members some time to catch up on everything.
Todd Gleason:Yeah. And get ready for the end of the semester as well, but I'm gonna talk to you about the marketplace. Let's begin, someplace I don't generally get too involved in, but Tyson Foods has announced that it is shuttering and actually shuttering a beef processing plant in Nebraska and not a small one, a very large one. What impact might this have?
Chad Hart:Well, it's gonna feed into sort of the the negative sort of, you know, mood we've had in the in the beef market here for the past few weeks. In that by shutting that plant down, that's gonna basically back some more cattle up here, help drive prices down a little bit when we're looking at our fed cattle. As we rearrange the herd to go to different plants now because, you know, while this plant shutting down, it's not that we're completely losing that capacity. It's just that it's going to have to be picked up by other plants around the country. And that takes a few weeks to work out, and that's why you tend to see downward price pressure during that time.
Todd Gleason:Yeah. So longer term, as this has worked out, does it mean I mean, does does it mean that there will be some or many beef producers that will have to shut themselves down since it's just simply too far to ship, or is that something that happens normally within the beef sector anyway?
Chad Hart:Well, it normally does happen within the beef sector. But, yeah, this is going to rearrange, let's call it those localized opportunities for where will we see beef cattle growing. And let's face it, this is gonna move it from Nebraska to other places across the country as we're looking here. And, you know, that is sort of the challenge. The the meat packing industry is looking at, you know, fewer animals moving through their packing plants, therefore not needing as much of the the spaces they've got right now.
Chad Hart:Capacity utilization has been down in the upper seventies now for for quite a long time now. So this is not a surprising move. You know, it's just the let's call it a symptom of, you know, the shrinking cattle herd, and that does feed into the size of the packing facilities that we need.
Todd Gleason:Does it reconfigure grain flow as well? I mean, is there enough local beef production feeding that plant that grain flow will have to move somewhere else?
Chad Hart:Grain flow will adjust a little bit, but it probably won't be gigantic adjustments here. Mean, as we're looking here, I think, you know, even Tyson in their announcement mentioned that, you know, the idea is they're picking up this capacity in other places around the country. So it's more a question of just how easy is it for producers to shift to those other plants. And for those right around, something that's that's gonna be the problem is they're going to be the ones that face the largest burden when it comes to do they remain in the industry, and if so, where's that next best plant for me that, you know, they haven't had to think about in a while.
Todd Gleason:So all ancillary, economic issues related to the closing of a plant, and it will be for the local economy, a devastation, I would think. Now turn your attention to the marketplace. This morning, secretary Rollins said, hey. We're gonna get that deal inked with China in the next two weeks, which I think surprised everybody just a bit that they were still working on not that they were working on details, that the 12,000,000 metric tons wasn't really set in stone in some way at this point. The marketplace took it kind of in it with a shrug, but it's still, I think, bothered some.
Chad Hart:Oh, yeah. It's still bothersome, you know, especially in this case, as you mentioned, you know, that the 12,000,000 wasn't written down somewhere before now. And even now, we're not quite sure, you know, where it's written down and what the details are behind it. I mean, we do know we have seen the daily reports showing, you know, Chinese purchases. Those haven't hit any of the the big official weekly or monthly reports that we've got.
Chad Hart:But at least those dailies are indicating, yeah, there at least is some follow through action based upon the verbal agreement that was reached. But I think there's still some big questions about, for example, that 12,000,000 metric tons that we're talking about here for this year. You know, does it is it a calendar year? Is it a crop year? Does it count what China had bought this spring, for example, if it's a calendar year?
Chad Hart:Because those issues, those details are gonna matter greatly when it comes to the volumes we're talking about trying to put out here over the next few months.
Todd Gleason:If it is a calendar year, it will make a huge difference because, one, we've got two weeks to negotiate a deal, and then only two weeks left in the calendar or thereabouts. Yes. And how much have they imported in total? Did you check?
Chad Hart:From last year? Or you mean Yeah.
Todd Gleason:For the calendar year.
Chad Hart:I gotta admit, I haven't pulled up the entire number yet because it's it's one of these cases of we're looking at. And so far, we've seen what? A little over a million
Todd Gleason:Correct.
Chad Hart:Tons thus far. And it's like, okay. Well, if that's on top of what they purchased before, because I wanna say what they purchased before, put them at least around six. You know, they wouldn't have to, you know, have that much go through.
Todd Gleason:Well, we shall see how it all pans out by the end of this calendar year. What should producers be thinking about today?
Chad Hart:Well, I think in this case, one of things I've been watching is if you think back to when we, you know, got our first WASDE crop production report after the, you know, shutdown ended and where prices have moved, soybeans has been the only place out of what I call the big four that's been able to sort of hold its ground. And that was due to these, you know, daily Chinese sales coming in. Corn came off there because we did not see, the reductions in production that we hoped for. Cattle, hogs, both have come down a little bit as well after that report came out. So we are definitely seeing, you know, a lull in the market as we've now gotten through the crop harvest and are figuring out where we're gonna go from here.
Chad Hart:But I also think that, you know, when I'm looking at soybeans, that's incredible run. We've gained quite a lot of ground since the beginning of harvest. And maybe this is time to take advantage of at least a little bit of that, especially knowing that, you know, I'm hearing issues of storage concerns in several places around the state of Iowa, for example. So here's the market offering us a little opportunity to at least move some beans down the line at a much better price than they were when harvest started.
Todd Gleason:And for corn?
Chad Hart:I think it's sort of a wait and see. You know, the idea is that everybody has been expecting the USDA yield number to come down. We didn't get that this time around, but I think we're all still expecting it. And so in a certain sense, I'm thinking this is setting up a lot like last year where we saw that January number take a few steps back when it came to yield. And that may offer us up some better opportunities as we get into that mid winter you know, time frame to maybe start seeing some building prices for some sales there.
Todd Gleason:K. Thanks much, Chad.
Curt Kimmel:Thank you.
Todd Gleason:Chad Harte is an agricultural economist. He's based on the Iowa State University campus in Ames and Berksworth extension joined us here on the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. For this Monday afternoon, do visit our website, willag.org, if you haven't already. The farm assets conference and the Illinois farm economic summits are coming up soon. Get yourself registered today.
Todd Gleason:The cost is $80 at willag.org or farmdocdaily.illinois.eduunderevents. Let's check out the weather forecast now. Mark Russo is here. He is with Everstream Analytics. Hello, Mark.
Todd Gleason:Thank you for being with us, and I hope you're looking forward to a great holiday.
Mark Russo:Yes. Thank you, Todd. Yeah. Looking forward to, this Thanksgiving.
Todd Gleason:Well, let's start with that. Do we have good or bad things to talk about as it's related to travel?
Mark Russo:Well, it depends. We are seeing the pattern change. And as we move into the holiday on Thursday and beyond, temperatures are gonna be turning much colder here across Illinois and let alone much of of the Corn Belt here. And with that influx of Arctic air will also be an increase in snow. Right now, we're not seeing any extreme winter storms here in the Midwest or for much of the kinda northern part of The US.
Mark Russo:There will be some smaller scale areas of heavier snow up towards The US border, and it's not out of the question. Might see even a little clipper system produce several inches of snow here across across Illinois coming up on on Saturday. So kinda have a little bit of everything. It doesn't look terrible, but also, you know, doesn't look like it's fully wide open from a travel standpoint or or whether you're, you know, getting your Christmas tree right now as well.
Todd Gleason:The cool weather coming in, will it be below average by very much, or is it just the natural turn at the November?
Mark Russo:Yeah. Temperatures are forecast to be below normal here, but not by a huge degree. This is more kind of weak to moderate Arctic air versus anything exceptionally cold. Actually, one of the reasons why it's not exceptionally cold is that North America snow cover is basically at the lowest levels for this time of year of the past ten years. So with less slow less snow as this Arctic air is flowing over it, it's able to be moderated a bit more.
Mark Russo:So as we get into the holiday and beyond, talking about temperatures here that average out to be, oh, five to 10 degrees colder than normal for this time of year.
Todd Gleason:Not so bad, I would suppose. You suggested we need to talk about Europe. Why?
Mark Russo:Yeah. They're seeing cold right now. Been that way over the past week or so that's forcing their winter crops into a dormant state, but also going into dormancy in in a very good soil moisture state here as, precipitation has been near to above normal of late. This cold snap in Europe looks relatively short lived. Again, it doesn't look like any kind of winter kill threat, and temperatures actually look to rebound to warmer than normal levels as we move into next week.
Todd Gleason:Now let's turn your attention to the Southern Hemisphere. South America has a crop in the ground. It is growing particularly in Brazil. Start with the Northwestern portion of that nation and work your way southward through Argentina.
Mark Russo:Yeah. It's been of a variable situation here with recent rainfall patterns across, Center West Brazil. We've seen some of the western areas of Central Western areas of Mato Grosso, pick up significant rainfall, but some of the Far Eastern areas of Mato Grosso and Tagoyas and even portions of the Northeast have been drier than normal, and that has begun to at least delay a little bit of soybean planting across those areas. That is now starting to change, though, as the pattern becomes more active across this region, and the next two weeks looks to feature near to above normal rainfall that will boost soil moisture and help accelerate planting across much of Center West and even into Northeastern Brazil. As you go south of there into Southern Brazil, their soil moisture is in good shape, although Rio Grande Do Sul has started to trend a little bit drier here over the past couple of weeks, which is not of any concern.
Mark Russo:But going forward, that area looks to stay on the dry side over the next several weeks. So something to keep an eye on, but it's not of any immediate issue. And then finally, in Argentina, they're also kind of a similar pattern as Southern Brazil. They're drier bias, but there will be this rain event coming up November. It's actually trended wetter here over the past day or so, so things are looking better to boost soil moisture across especially the central and northern acreage in Argentina.
Mark Russo:And it looks like those rains will be just outside of some of these wet pockets that have been discussed a bit in Central Buenos Aires, which were which has resulted in at least some very isolated planning delays there.
Todd Gleason:You have a happy Thanksgiving, and I hope you'll find all the things you want on Black Friday.
Mark Russo:Thank you very much, Todd. Likewise.
Todd Gleason:That is Mark Russo. He's with Everstream Analytics and joined us here on the closing market report for this Monday afternoon. It came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world. I'm Todd Gleason.
Chad Hart:Hi.