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Mark Simon and Bob Marks revive their long-running cable TV show The Game, where they interview local leaders and talk widely about politics, business and sports.
Produced by Frank Bravo, BravoITC.com
00;00;26;05 - 00;00;27;13
Speaker 1
Welcome to the game. I'm Mark.
00;00;27;13 - 00;00;57;11
Speaker 2
Simon and I'm Bob marks. And there's always a relief when Bob gets that right because sometimes he's forgotten. It's good to see you all. We took a little break during the summer, but we're back. Looking ahead to what looks like is going to be a very, very busy November election. So to go over some of this and sort of set the context, we've got doctor, doctor, Melissa michelson, head of the political science department in Menlo College, and Don Cecil, a longtime veteran public affairs and political consultant.
00;00;57;13 - 00;01;17;23
Speaker 2
Thank you both for joining us. It's great to see you. Thanks. Let's do let's start with just sort of a general overview of, you know, we read a lot about this is supposed to be a big Democratic year. There's a lot of people who are unhappy with the political system. What is your sense of as we head into November?
00;01;17;23 - 00;01;31;19
Speaker 2
It's a little early still to b b to precise. But Melissa, starting with you. What is your feeling for what kind of voters are out there, what kind of mood they're in and what sort of sense they're going to have of what's going on here.
00;01;31;22 - 00;01;54;11
Speaker 3
Yeah, I think voters are very disappointed with how things are going. You know, Trump's approval ratings are very low, but at the same time, they're not so happy with the Democrats either. And there's a lot of negative sentiment out there about the Democrats. And so what I think is the most interesting thing that's going on this year is we've seen some recent successes by democratic socialists.
00;01;54;12 - 00;02;19;23
Speaker 3
We've got a couple of races going on around the country where it's going to be a Republican against an independent. And, you know, just to what degree can the Democratic Party repair its image and take advantage of the president's party being down in the polls, which traditionally would mean a great year for Democrats? And to what degree are they going to have to be pushing back against also negative sentiment about Democrats?
00;02;19;26 - 00;02;32;25
Speaker 2
Don, you're you're close to local politics in San Mateo County. Do you get the same sense from from the county that there's a widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo? Mark.
00;02;32;28 - 00;03;05;16
Speaker 4
I say this often. Every day is an assault on one's sanity in this country every day. Right? You wake up, however you consume your news, you're bombarded with something new, something more catastrophic. The economy's worse, whatever the case may be. And then you have to reconcile that, hopefully. But this is not true for everyone. You have to reconcile it with but my little life is still okay, right?
00;03;05;19 - 00;03;28;17
Speaker 4
I'm employed. My spouse is good. In my case, my mother still, you know, alive and kicking. And it's hard because every day is this challenge of how are we going to get through this? And I think whether it's a local level, whether it's a national level, whether it's, you know, the Democratic Party or the democratic socialist, people want people to listen.
00;03;28;18 - 00;03;53;09
Speaker 4
Right. They, they they want people to listen, to acknowledge that things are things are tough. There's a lot of anxiety. The economy is real. And I'm not sure that voters are focused on whether someone is a D or a democratic socialist. I think they're focused on, hey, this person is actually saying something that I care about, that I want my leader to be saying and fighting for.
00;03;53;12 - 00;04;16;05
Speaker 2
Is the socialist label, which is what the Republicans would like to turn it into. Is it a plus or minus are people. I mean, we have a long history in this country of swinging to the left, swinging toward socialism in terms of our politics. Although it's been a long time since Eugene Debs was on the ballot. But is that a plus or a liability?
00;04;16;06 - 00;04;17;12
Speaker 2
Melissa.
00;04;17;14 - 00;04;45;01
Speaker 3
Well, I think it depends, right. Because you've got folks like Zan Rondani and AOC who are making democratic socialism look very sexy and very successful. And then we've got some other candidates who maybe look a little bit, you know, too far out there talking about abolishing police, abolishing borders. And, you know, so some of the democratic socialist candidates are maybe a little too fringe for most Americans.
00;04;45;01 - 00;05;08;24
Speaker 3
But I think especially among young people, democratic socialism is great. They don't they don't have the same memories about the negative. Right. These negative connotations with socialism, communism that maybe older voters do. I think younger folks are very open to these ideas and maybe think capitalism is overrated.
00;05;08;27 - 00;05;12;23
Speaker 2
Is capitalism overrated, Don?
00;05;12;25 - 00;05;49;04
Speaker 4
I mean, Mark, I don't think capitalism is going anywhere, but I think to the point that Melissa made, how much are people focusing on the word socialist? Right. No one has asked me. I'm not actually offering this to anyone as advice. But I think if you had a time machine and you went back the day that whoever was sitting around the table to name the DSA party, like if they had named it the Democratic Workers Party, there'd be a lot less anxiety about it, because I think that's really the message that they're putting out there that's resonating with people.
00;05;49;06 - 00;06;16;25
Speaker 5
Let me ask you both, in 2016, what Trump was able to do is bring out a lot of new voters and turn around a number of longtime Democratic voters, particularly in the Rust Belt and areas like that. Is it possible that the DSA can do the same thing this time around, that they can generate a large number of new voters?
00;06;16;28 - 00;06;19;27
Speaker 5
They certainly are providing the energy we've got.
00;06;20;04 - 00;06;40;07
Speaker 3
I think absolutely. I think especially, you know, high propensity voters are already going to be out there. But how do you get these low propensity voters to turn out? You get them excited. You get them to think, well, maybe who I vote for really does matter. And again, you know, I'm just going to keep referencing these very successful Democratic socialists.
00;06;40;07 - 00;07;06;03
Speaker 3
So on Monday and AOC, you know, folks like that, Bernie Sanders has always talked about socialism. They get people excited. They get young people excited. How many how many young people were Bernie Bros. In 2016. And so I think that same energy is something that can bring out new voters if it's the right candidate. And, you know, as, as Don said, if they're talking about the right things, I think we're also seeing that with the Working Families Party.
00;07;06;04 - 00;07;30;13
Speaker 3
Right. That's maybe a name that's a little more softer for people. Working Families Party has been doing really well lately, and it's because of the brand. But they're saying the same things. These we hear you, we understand that you all are struggling to pay the bills, to put gas in the car, to buy a home. And that, of course, is what people are responding to.
00;07;30;14 - 00;07;36;08
Speaker 3
Not necessarily the name, but the idea that, wow, these people really do care about me.
00;07;36;11 - 00;07;58;00
Speaker 5
Don, let me ask you, are we looking at the end of the Democratic establishment in this country, much the same way that the Republican establishment has disappeared under a more extremist and charismatic president as Donald Trump? Is this the end of the Democratic establishment?
00;07;58;03 - 00;08;23;11
Speaker 4
I don't think so, Bob. I mean, I think this country is a two party country, and, you know, it is not impossible that other parties don't continue to gain more seats, more viability, the way that we're seeing who I mean, in 2016, who could have predicted what would be going on in 2026. So my crystal ball on its best day is murky.
00;08;23;11 - 00;08;45;06
Speaker 4
I'm not going to predict the end of the Republican or the Democratic Party. I think people are hungry for the recognition that life is not easy. No matter who you are, how much you make or where you live. And so if the if the right candidate is saying, I'm going to fight for you, people will listen to that.
00;08;45;07 - 00;09;14;21
Speaker 4
I think, you know, the Democratic establishment that exists today, you know, discontent with, you know, leadership in the Senate, discontent with leadership and in the House, the apparent meltdown of the Democratic National Committee. I mean, these are not good things. I don't think they spell the end of the Democratic Party. I think people want leaders.
00;09;14;24 - 00;09;38;28
Speaker 2
Well, the highest profile issue on the November ballot. And it's the question is this is a litmus test for the very issues you're talking about, is opposed to tax billionaires, all of their assets, 5% increase on billionaires. Last time I checked online, there something like 215 of them in California, although there may be fewer now, you may have been moved there.
00;09;38;29 - 00;10;03;05
Speaker 2
Move everything they own to Nevada or something. But there are nine ballot measures. Certainly the highest profile one is the billionaire tax prop 40. There are also some other measures that are related. Sort of props 41 and 42 clearly were put on the ballot by anti-tax people who want to make it more difficult to raise taxes, especially at the local level.
00;10;03;05 - 00;10;20;00
Speaker 2
But let's start with the billionaire tax. What's your sense of that? There's a growing opposition to it. And seeyou one of the more aggressive and more progressive unions in California is beginning to look like it's sort of all on its own on this issue. Melissa.
00;10;20;03 - 00;10;41;21
Speaker 3
Yeah, I think the billionaire tax is one of those things where at first people are like, yeah, that's cool. Get those billionaires eat the rich. And then as more information becomes available, well, here's the details of what that billionaire tax is. Here's where the money would go. Here's, you know, a more nuanced picture of what exactly it is that we're proposing to do.
00;10;41;22 - 00;11;09;03
Speaker 3
That's when folks started to, to back away and, and support to to start to drop. And I think that we're going to see, of course, a barrage of ads, because there's always a barrage of ads for these high profile proposition races, and it's going to erode public opinion and so doubt. Right. In any campaign consultant can tell you it's easier to get people to know them to yes, because a no means nothing changes.
00;11;09;03 - 00;11;32;29
Speaker 3
And you didn't make a mistake. And so I think this is a vulnerable proposition. And I think a lot of people who maybe agree that billionaires shouldn't exist, or that there are problems with the growing disparity in wealth in this country and that we need to reform the tax laws, etc., etc., that you can still pretty easily nudge those people to know because of doubts about the details of this bill.
00;11;32;29 - 00;11;40;05
Speaker 3
So I predict a very, very expensive race and that the proposition will fail.
00;11;40;07 - 00;12;03;08
Speaker 2
Don, the fact that I even got on the ballot, you know, taking into account that the signature gathering process is a business, not a grassroots effort. But I think my sense is that it did capture, at least at the outset, this dissatisfaction that we're talking about, didn't it?
00;12;03;11 - 00;12;24;02
Speaker 4
I think that has to play in on some level, Mark. But if you have enough money, you can qualify anything for the ballot. And that's if you think something is a good idea or you think something is a bad idea. In California, our system is structured so that if you can hire, you know, the right consultants to go out and do the signature gathering, you get on the ballot.
00;12;24;09 - 00;12;35;08
Speaker 4
I agree with everything that Melissa said. I think I would also say, you know, there was an effort at one point. I can't remember if it was actually on the ballot or not to split California into six different states. Right.
00;12;35;10 - 00;12;37;23
Speaker 2
It was Tim Draper's proposal. Yeah.
00;12;37;24 - 00;12;40;04
Speaker 4
That was what it was, right?
00;12;40;06 - 00;12;41;03
Speaker 2
I thought.
00;12;41;06 - 00;13;13;14
Speaker 4
Well, I think simplistically you can think, you know, maybe that makes sense. Right? We've got, you know, coastal and northern and southern and central and whatever. I think we are a very complicated state with a lot of different perspectives and constituencies and, and the list goes on and on and on. However, I think we are still a state, and no matter what our differences are or how we perceive things, I think most of us are proud to be the state of California.
00;13;13;15 - 00;13;35;06
Speaker 4
All that we have to offer, all of the warts and the benefits, you know, wherever we are today in the ranking of the largest economies in the world, like we are still a special place. And I think we have a we have a smart voter base. And to the point that Melissa made, you know, this thing I think is polling 4747 right now.
00;13;35;06 - 00;13;49;12
Speaker 4
If you wanted this to pass in November, you need to be north of 50, right? They're not in a good place, but they will still spend tens of millions of dollars on either side to fight or win.
00;13;49;14 - 00;13;57;18
Speaker 2
Yeah, I'm sure of those campaigns. Does anybody get rich? Other consultants are the ones and TV stations. They're the ones who make money off of their.
00;13;57;20 - 00;13;58;18
Speaker 4
Absolutely.
00;13;58;19 - 00;13;59;12
Speaker 2
Yeah.
00;13;59;14 - 00;14;24;09
Speaker 5
Don, is it unusual for the two most powerful unions in California to be going head to head? The CTA and the medical association are supporting prop three, and some people believe that the reason they oppose SEIU on this is that they worry that it's going to impact the results on prop three.
00;14;24;12 - 00;14;26;18
Speaker 2
Which isn't set of housing bonds. Right?
00;14;26;19 - 00;14;46;21
Speaker 5
No. No problem. Is the constitutional amendment that would make permanent taxes on upper middle class people here in California that was passed in 2012. How unusual is it for these two unions to go head to head?
00;14;46;23 - 00;15;13;27
Speaker 4
You know, Bob, I, I'm a huge proponent of the labor movement. I also think that sometimes the perspective might be, well, labor, right. They're just one big happy family all rowing the boat in the same direction. And that's like saying business is one big happy family rowing the boat in the same direction. It is a complicated, you know, set of relationships that exist between labor at a local, regional and statewide level and national level.
00;15;13;28 - 00;15;56;25
Speaker 4
So I'm a local guy, remember, I'm not as steeped in what's going on at the statewide level as I probably should be, but I'm not surprised. Right. You have very different union groups with different agendas, from one ballot cycle to the next, from one legislative cycle to the next. They're not always on the same page. I would also say we have a governor who is a serious presidential candidate, who has inserted himself in this particular issue, and either because he's exerting pressure on unions to back his perspective on this issue or, you know, they're just interested in working with who might be the next president of the United States.
00;15;56;25 - 00;16;02;28
Speaker 4
That certainly is a factor, I think, in what's going on behind the scenes with this particular issue.
00;16;03;01 - 00;16;38;26
Speaker 5
Yeah. Melissa, let me ask you. We also have prop 41 and 42, which are being supported by our friendly neighborhood billionaires, Marx 215 or whatever they are now. It's nothing new in California to have people try to muddy the water, confuse voters, and spend hundreds of millions of dollars. Is it? You know, it's the oldest question in California politics why do we make policy this way in California with measures, right?
00;16;38;27 - 00;17;05;16
Speaker 3
Well, none of us were alive, but back in 2011, it seemed like a great idea. Right? Let's let's take power back away from Southern Pacific Railroad, away from the corrupt politicians, and let's give it back to the people. So when the power to put ballot measures before the people was added to the Constitution, it was considered to be a great populist thing that was going to give people power instead of politicians and and corporations.
00;17;05;18 - 00;17;31;04
Speaker 3
Obviously, things have changed over time. And now, because it's so expensive to qualify something for the ballot and to wage a campaign for or against a proposition, it is once again a tool of moneyed interests and not at all what it was supposed to be. But public opinion is still very much in favor of it. And every time Californians are asked, would you like to roll back the proposition system?
00;17;31;04 - 00;17;53;25
Speaker 3
Would you like to have less direct democracy? They say, oh no, right. We love being able to vote on all this stuff. This is great. This is democracy. Don't take that away. And so even though, you know, political scientists and those of us were spending potentially too much time looking into the details of this, know that, you know, it's really not what it's supposed to be, especially at the statewide level.
00;17;53;27 - 00;18;01;00
Speaker 3
It's very, very popular. So it's not going to go anywhere because the people still think propositions are a good thing.
00;18;01;02 - 00;18;16;02
Speaker 2
You know, we're still in the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. And if you study our history back in that time, the framers did not support direct democracy. They didn't trust public opinion? No. Were they right?
00;18;16;05 - 00;18;19;28
Speaker 3
Are easily fooled by demagogues.
00;18;20;01 - 00;18;25;14
Speaker 2
Were they right to be distrustful of the swings and whims of public opinion?
00;18;25;16 - 00;18;52;19
Speaker 3
Okay, well, if we're going to get super geeky about it, you know, yes, the Founding Fathers were worried about that sort of thing. And and Madison was and Hamilton wrote about this in the in The Federalist Papers and all of the safeguards that they thought were in place are no longer in place. And so even the right the idea that you couldn't have large factions because people are so scattered in the large nation, well, now you can get on the internet and you can have your faction meet up together in a group chat.
00;18;52;19 - 00;19;19;03
Speaker 3
And so all of the protections against demagogues, against people coming together, minority tyrannies, all all of the stuff that the founders thought would keep us safe, even with the limited democracy they were giving us. It's all gone. So I don't want to geek out too much. But I think, yes, the founders were right to be concerned. The safeguards they believed that were were in place are gone.
00;19;19;06 - 00;19;25;10
Speaker 3
The the interpretation of the Constitution is nothing that the Founding Fathers would recognize at this point.
00;19;25;11 - 00;19;33;27
Speaker 2
And I want to take special note. Many people cite the Federalist Papers. Very few people have actually read them. So hats off to you, professor.
00;19;33;29 - 00;19;35;03
Speaker 6
Yeah, I'm so glad.
00;19;35;04 - 00;19;40;00
Speaker 3
I will make it. Safer and. And learn what all those weird words mean.
00;19;40;00 - 00;19;41;00
Speaker 6
Weird? Yeah.
00;19;41;04 - 00;19;42;23
Speaker 2
Because will this be.
00;19;42;25 - 00;19;43;14
Speaker 6
Many people have read.
00;19;43;14 - 00;19;46;19
Speaker 3
The Constitution, so can we just start with that? It's much shorter.
00;19;46;23 - 00;20;09;03
Speaker 2
Of course, if I was in your class, the first question would be is this going to be on the final? So so let's talk a little bit about that because there is a measure on the ballot, prop 39, which would require government issued identifications in order to vote. Clearly the president wants to sow doubt in advance about the validity of these elections.
00;20;09;03 - 00;20;31;02
Speaker 2
He's still litigating the 2020 election, for God's sakes. So is that going to have any impact? First of all, do you think that measure is going to pass? But second of all, doesn't have an impact on on people showing up, does it? Does does it succeed in sowing doubt or does it have the opposite effect? My own sense of it is, and there's nothing to base this on other than my own.
00;20;31;03 - 00;20;53;14
Speaker 2
You know, I read a lot of stuff, but there's a wave coming of dissatisfaction. The Republicans and Trump become the scapegoat for that, whether they should be or not. And then all the machinations he may want to employ are hard pressed to overwhelm what I think is a really rising tide. What's your sense of all that and the voter ID issue in particular?
00;20;53;15 - 00;20;54;04
Speaker 6
Yeah.
00;20;54;09 - 00;21;10;17
Speaker 3
There's a lot going on with that, right? This is kind of the statewide version of the Save America Act that Trump keeps pressuring the Senate to pass. And, you know, on the face of it, it's I think it's very similar, actually to the billionaire tax when you first hear like, yeah, why wouldn't we want people to prove their eligible to register and vote.
00;21;10;19 - 00;21;37;15
Speaker 3
Sure. But when you get into the details of it, well, really what this is going to do is disenfranchize people because not everyone has a passport, not everyone has their birth certificate. And getting those documents costs time and money. And so if you are now going to be forced in order to exercise your right to vote, to come up with documents that cost you time and money, it's kind of like a poll tax, right?
00;21;37;17 - 00;21;58;18
Speaker 3
So the negative ads right themselves, it's very it's very clear that this would disenfranchize people, that this would make certain parts of the electorate concerned about being challenged at the polls. And that's going to depress turnout because nobody wants that, although mostly we're voting by mail. So as long as we're still voting by mail, that's not so much.
00;21;58;18 - 00;22;15;07
Speaker 3
But I think the major point about it is it is going to have a negative impact on turnout in particular subgroups of the electorate, because they don't have the documents they would need, and they don't have the time and money to get those documents.
00;22;15;09 - 00;22;31;15
Speaker 2
Don, your thoughts in particular about the thoughts I had about the sort of rising tide of dissatisfaction that it's going to be hard pressed to to stem that tide by accusations the elections are not being run appropriately.
00;22;31;17 - 00;22;53;26
Speaker 4
I think a lot in terms of what is the likely voter think, right? Who is the likely voter? What do they think? How much are they tracking? How much do they pay attention? I don't think the case has been made that we have wide spread voter fraud and voter abuse, especially in California. It takes too long to get the results.
00;22;53;26 - 00;23;17;28
Speaker 4
There's no question about that. But that is not translating into people believing that voting in California is riddled with fraud or irregularities or illegalities. So then, if you're basing it on that and in the MAGA base, is going to believe whatever it's told to believe in the state of California or any of the other and the places in this country.
00;23;18;01 - 00;23;35;06
Speaker 4
So then we're back to the average voter. Like, I don't think the average voter wants to make it hard for anybody to vote. I still think we believe this is a good thing. Voting is a good thing. It's a fundamental right. I don't want to make it harder for anyone to vote.
00;23;35;13 - 00;23;44;29
Speaker 2
Why shouldn't we make it harder, Don, for people who are who are here legally? I mean, California has made it easy for anybody to vote.
00;23;45;01 - 00;23;45;12
Speaker 6
We've made.
00;23;45;12 - 00;23;47;13
Speaker 3
It easy for anybody to register.
00;23;47;16 - 00;23;48;03
Speaker 6
Right.
00;23;48;05 - 00;23;49;09
Speaker 3
But most people.
00;23;49;09 - 00;23;50;05
Speaker 6
Who register.
00;23;50;05 - 00;24;09;23
Speaker 3
Who shouldn't have understand that they're not supposed to vote. Right. If you're here and you're not a citizen, you're not going to just go out and commit a felony. So you can cast one vote in an election where your one vote probably isn't going to make the difference, that there is a problem of of. It of people registering.
00;24;09;23 - 00;24;23;00
Speaker 3
And we have people registered who who can't vote, but we don't have a problem of those people voting, right. They know they're not supposed to vote. Maybe they checked the box when they got their driver's license, but they're not voting.
00;24;23;04 - 00;24;41;27
Speaker 5
Yeah, of course we have the situation in new Jersey where over 6000 non-citizens were registered to vote and 400 of them actually did vote. So that's certainly doesn't help the argument against it, even though that appears to be clearly a technical error.
00;24;41;27 - 00;25;06;06
Speaker 3
And again, talking about 400 people in elected with tens of millions of voters. So no. Yes. That's a much bigger problem than we've seen in the past. Right, right. But just if you just keep in mind how large the electorate is and how few people are making that mistake, unfortunately, that is that is a bigger mistake than we've seen in the past.
00;25;06;06 - 00;25;16;02
Speaker 3
But I don't think it's normal. It's an outlier. And most people who accidentally register understand that they're not supposed to vote, right?
00;25;16;04 - 00;25;18;26
Speaker 5
Well, the reason we can't the reason.
00;25;18;29 - 00;25;24;24
Speaker 2
Is because the reason we find out about this is because they got caught, right? Yeah. So so it isn't.
00;25;24;26 - 00;25;26;27
Speaker 7
So the artists have been done, multiple audits.
00;25;26;27 - 00;25;46;10
Speaker 3
Have been done. And they this is the first time where there's been a big chunk of voters who shouldn't have voted most of the time. As Don noted, it's a minuscule problem. It's and it's it's people, you know, it's not people trying to steal elections. There's nothing organized about it. It's individuals being confused. You know, they keep getting bombarded with this.
00;25;46;10 - 00;26;12;26
Speaker 3
You must vote your voices, your vote. Don't forget to vote. And they're like, okay, but it's not like a conspiracy of of non-citizens being directed by Soros to go and throw elections. Right? So I do think Trump will use the failure of this proposition, the failure of the Save America Act, as a talking point when responding to the results of the midterm elections.
00;26;12;27 - 00;26;18;23
Speaker 3
I think that's an important consequence we're going to see. But I don't think these bills are going to pass.
00;26;18;28 - 00;26;54;29
Speaker 5
Don, let me ask you about another one. And this one kind of brings us back to the local level. And that's prop 43. That would require that local taxes have a two thirds vote pass obviously will affect counties, cities, school districts. You've spent a lot of time working in local politics. Talk about the potential impact, particularly in the environment, that we're in, the economic environment where people are clearly frustrated with how much they're having to pay in taxes.
00;26;55;01 - 00;27;24;10
Speaker 4
I think if we're looking at the June election cycle and the polling that is available for the November election cycle, any any local ballot measure that requires a two thirds majority for approval, it will be the outlier in November and not the norm. Right. You know, a lot there's been a certain amount of coverage of what happened in the June election cycle.
00;27;24;12 - 00;27;47;00
Speaker 4
The city of Palo Alto, their Palo Alto Unified School District, had a parcel tax on the ballot. It required a two thirds majority for approval. It did not pass. I think simplistically, you can say people are angry. People are in here about the economy that's going on at some level. But there's also a lot of discontent in that particular school district right now.
00;27;47;02 - 00;28;33;23
Speaker 4
But I think if every public agency at a local level has to achieve a two thirds to pass a new tax measure, that will be very challenging for local governments to cover the operational deficits that continue to mount and grow and just makes it harder. And there may be satisfaction in voting yes on that this November. But when police officers and firefighters and public works maintenance crews start to have those positions get reduced or eliminated in future budget cycles, because you have to balance the budget as a city or county or a public agency in California, the unintended consequences are not good.
00;28;33;24 - 00;28;41;08
Speaker 4
The way we fund government is not ideal, but that is not good public policy.
00;28;41;11 - 00;29;08;19
Speaker 2
There are quite a few cities and school boards that have put something on the ballot for for November sales tax, other kinds of taxes, and there's a couple of parcel taxes. I just read that the statewide parcel tax pass rate was 53%, which is 12 points lower than it was in 2002. So there's another indicator that there's a growing unhappiness with this.
00;29;08;19 - 00;29;12;01
Speaker 2
But are any.
00;29;12;01 - 00;29;15;25
Speaker 8
Of these in. I think what I might say to that is.
00;29;15;26 - 00;29;48;04
Speaker 4
Is there a. Growing unhappiness with parcel taxes, or are we in a particular point in time where the sensitivity to taxes and one's pocketbook, the cost of filling up your gas tank, what it costs to go to the grocery store, regardless of whether you can afford to do all those things or not afford to do them, the the experience of what people are going through right now economically is very real, and I think that's the sensitivity.
00;29;48;04 - 00;30;02;05
Speaker 4
I don't know that people think, oh, that parcel tax, that's a really bad way to raise money. As much as, you know, I'm feeling pretty tense right now. And, you know, this school district might have to wait until 2028.
00;30;02;08 - 00;30;09;16
Speaker 2
Do you see any of these simple majority ones failing in San Mateo County? There are quite a few of those.
00;30;09;18 - 00;30;40;00
Speaker 4
I don't I think, you know, the again, in June there was a lot of air given to school bond measures, which only require 55% not passing, I think. I can't say definitively those that didn't make it to 55 all sort of made it at least over 50%. But my my recollection is most of them were somewhere between a simple majority and 55%, but fell short of that 55%.
00;30;40;00 - 00;30;52;18
Speaker 4
So I think that is the simple majority is the easiest threshold to achieve. Will there be some that don't make it? Certainly there's a possibility of that.
00;30;52;21 - 00;30;58;01
Speaker 2
Let's talk a little bit about the governor's race. Is there a governor's race?
00;30;58;04 - 00;31;05;04
Speaker 3
Oh, but he really wants there.
00;31;05;07 - 00;31;06;06
Speaker 2
Well, the fact is.
00;31;06;06 - 00;31;10;16
Speaker 3
That race. But I think it's pretty clear that there's not much going on.
00;31;10;22 - 00;31;49;22
Speaker 2
Right? I mean, Steve Hilton made pretty big splash in the primary. And that helped a lot by, you know, 27 or 28 different Democrats running. So it made their numbers look smaller. And I think that energized some of the Republican base, I think. I went back and looked and it turned out in the Republican base in the June primary was significantly higher than it has been in past years, but it was almost a false positive as a medical term goes, which is that once that's done and it's just one on one, the whole system sort of reverts to what we now accept is the norm, where we acknowledge whether we accept it or not.
00;31;49;23 - 00;32;11;27
Speaker 3
I mean, it's it's not that California has never elected a Republican governor, but we haven't done so for a long time. And sentiment being what it is and party registration being what it is right now, you know, they'd really have to be something super unusual to happen for Steve Hilton to have a chance. And so I think there's really no energy in the governor's race.
00;32;11;27 - 00;32;21;15
Speaker 3
And, you know, they're still posting on social media, they're still putting out ads. But it's pretty low energy. I think everyone realizes what's going to happen.
00;32;21;17 - 00;32;29;12
Speaker 2
Does that affect turnout? Don, a governor's race is ho hum.
00;32;29;15 - 00;32;53;08
Speaker 4
In this particular election cycle, I don't know that a contested governor's race was going to make that much of a of an impact, I think. Where are the exciting races? Mayor of Los Angeles, who replaces Nancy Pelosi in Congress? I think that.
00;32;53;10 - 00;33;10;07
Speaker 4
You know, poor, poor Secretary Becerra is going to kind of become the governor of one of the most important economies in the world, and it's kind of a lackluster I almost feel sorry for him. Right. Not a lot of excitement about it.
00;33;10;08 - 00;33;10;18
Speaker 3
Well, he.
00;33;10;18 - 00;33;13;14
Speaker 4
Gets excitement that he does get to.
00;33;13;17 - 00;33;14;12
Speaker 3
Do that.
00;33;14;14 - 00;33;29;26
Speaker 4
And I think to Melissa's point, which none of us want, you would have to have something on the scale of the scandal that Eric Swalwell dropped out for in order to make this a contested governor's race.
00;33;29;28 - 00;33;30;27
Speaker 3
Yeah.
00;33;30;29 - 00;33;41;27
Speaker 4
Let me and I have to say, as a voter in the state of California, I am thrilled that this is going to be the sleepy runoff for the governor's race. We don't need any more drama.
00;33;41;29 - 00;34;04;07
Speaker 3
But I think it does affect turnout, because there's something about a statewide race for a governor that gets people excited. And while you might have high turnout in LA for the mayor's race, for people who understand that the mayor is an important position and there's some really hot House races where people might get excited, it does depress turnout if there's not a competitive big ticket, top of the ticket race.
00;34;04;07 - 00;34;26;06
Speaker 3
And so, right, we don't have a Senate race. We have a noncompetitive gubernatorial race. It is going to hurt turnout. And that's something that all those lower level campaigns are going to have to deal with to get people excited about returning their ballots. I mean, on the other hand, because we're mostly a mailing ballot state that's a right at the cost of participating is pretty low.
00;34;26;08 - 00;34;45;23
Speaker 3
It would be a huge problem if we were the kind of state where you have to go wait in line, but campaigns are going to have to work harder to get out the vote, because for most people, they kind of figure, well, this is a this is a done deal. So, you know, they don't need me.
00;34;45;25 - 00;35;02;22
Speaker 5
In San Mateo County, we're going to have a supervisors race to replace Dave Canopy, who's going to become the elections chief and assessor. It's versus Nogales. How do we see that race playing out?
00;35;02;29 - 00;35;08;29
Speaker 3
Wait, are we just going to skip over the part where you say you won the election for to be the elect? We're just going to cover that.
00;35;09;01 - 00;35;14;18
Speaker 5
Well he did. He's now the assessor election chiefs elect.
00;35;14;21 - 00;35;48;17
Speaker 2
Yeah. Yeah we are. You know it's it was an important win for him. I suspect it's something that I don't think would have been his first choice. He had other ambitions about which he didn't make a lot of secrets. But it's probably a good place for him to go next. Certainly it. He told me during the campaign that it was important to him to have a job that allowed him to stay near the near home, be with his son rather than having to go to Sacramento or Washington.
00;35;48;17 - 00;36;04;26
Speaker 2
I don't think he had turned down the opportunity he had to come his way. But it's interesting because he has been unparalleled in his ability to attract attention and get TV cameras to come see him. This job is a lot more difficult to do that, although every two years.
00;36;05;03 - 00;36;27;26
Speaker 3
We never saw Mark church on television. And so it's a completely different. I just think it's notable that is coming in and we're going to have this new personality running elections in the county, and nobody's talking about it. And I think it's super interesting, and I'm looking forward to seeing what he does to change the way elections are run around here.
00;36;28;00 - 00;36;48;14
Speaker 5
Let me ask another question about this. He's he's not going to assume the position until January, but how political can he be in this supervisor's race where clearly he has a candidate that he supports?
00;36;48;16 - 00;36;49;00
Speaker 2
Yeah.
00;36;49;03 - 00;36;54;24
Speaker 4
Yeah, I think that, David.
00;36;54;27 - 00;37;21;16
Speaker 4
What I'm seeing and hearing and just interpreting of this, I think David very seriously wants to do a great job as the chief elections officer elect for the county of San Mateo. And part of that, undoubtedly, is going to mean that he should not engage in an overly political way in anyone's campaign between now and when he gets sworn into this new position.
00;37;21;18 - 00;37;49;03
Speaker 4
I think, I think David is is an exceptional communicator. And so I too am really looking forward to seeing how what does he do in this new job? Right. I think he's got a skill set that is largely unmatched in local government. I don't think we've seen him run for the last thing he runs for, besides potentially reelection to this job four years from now.
00;37;49;05 - 00;38;13;21
Speaker 4
But I think he will do some really interesting things. The other thing, in addition to being elected to be the chief elections officer, he's been elected to a position that requires a sense of collaboration with the Board of Supervisors that may not have existed as a member of the Board of Supervisors. And so it will be interesting to see how he spends the next five and a half months, for sure.
00;38;13;23 - 00;38;25;27
Speaker 4
Yeah, yeah, I don't I would be surprised if we saw David barnstorming San Mateo County on behalf of any candidate for any office on the November ballot.
00;38;25;28 - 00;38;51;07
Speaker 2
Which takes us back to the race between Justin Manolo and Mark Nogales. She's on the daily City council, he's on the South San Francisco Council. She is clearly a protégé of his, and she has been coming along under his wing. She's not the politician he is, at least not yet. And in terms of his ability to go out and talk to people and attract attention, I used to joke and I don't not sure it's a joke, that we know.
00;38;51;07 - 00;39;16;28
Speaker 2
He's like God. Wherever two or more are gathered, he is there. So I think it's an interesting challenge for her to try to step up to that, because I don't think that's her persona, so to speak. But also, we don't know how much of her own calculus about this race included getting significant support from David. One of the things that David has proven is that he has developed his own fundraising base.
00;39;17;00 - 00;39;42;02
Speaker 2
This outside the norm of other candidates, largely because of his efforts in raising his profile in the Asian community, the Filipino community in the North County, the calculus of the race itself, ever since the Board of Supervisors went to districts, is, whoever's from the biggest city in that district is an odds on favorite to win, and that would tend to favor the.
00;39;42;04 - 00;39;50;19
Speaker 2
Do you have any sense that maybe that's not the case here? Mark Nogales is certainly already campaigning hard. Melissa, what are your thoughts?
00;39;50;20 - 00;39;55;20
Speaker 3
I don't have a lot of insight into this race, to be honest. So I'm going to have to pass to Don.
00;39;55;22 - 00;39;57;19
Speaker 2
Okay. Don.
00;39;57;21 - 00;40;21;09
Speaker 4
You know, Mark, when you if you're just setting them side by side on a sheet of paper. Right. They both served in local elected office for, you know, a very credible amount of time. Both have been mayor of the city that they represent on the city council. Each has a strong set of, you know, endorsements. Jocelyn has certainly been at this longer.
00;40;21;13 - 00;40;52;06
Speaker 4
My guess is she has raised some significant amount of money since she's been at this for year. Plus, you know, maybe even two years. You know, what's interesting is if it's not already official, I would certainly guess that Mark is going to have, you know, current supervisor, former member of Congress, Jackie Speier. And that continues to be a very powerful endorsement.
00;40;52;09 - 00;41;20;22
Speaker 4
You know, with no disrespect to Mr. Irizarry, I don't know that he knew what to do with that endorsement. I'm confident that Mark Nogales knows what to do with that endorsement. So I think I wouldn't say that it's all things being equal, I believe because Jocelyn comes from the city of Daly City, and that is the largest bloc of votes in this supervisorial district.
00;41;20;23 - 00;41;44;02
Speaker 4
There is certainly an advantage to that. And just because Supervisor Canopus not doing outwardly visible things to support her, I would guess he'll be doing things behind the scenes to support her. That is, again, another serious advantage. But knowing Mark Nogales, Mark wouldn't have gotten into this if he didn't think he had a path to winning. And what that path is I'm not privy to.
00;41;44;02 - 00;42;10;12
Speaker 4
But I think this this is certainly one of the most interesting races that I didn't see coming, and I didn't. Whoever strategy it was to make this a special election and combine it with the November election, that person gets, you know, a moment of brilliance award because it it took this thing down to a five and a half month sprint.
00;42;10;12 - 00;42;20;04
Speaker 4
And so money endorsements and that sweat equity of knocking on doors in a district will all have an impact on the outcome of this race.
00;42;20;07 - 00;42;42;25
Speaker 2
It'll be interesting to see where labor comes down on that one, because they have proven in the last 2 or 3 election cycles to be a significant and major player in San Mateo County politics. Maybe these single most significant one because they bring so many resources, money, other other labor unions to weigh in and also phone banks and campaign workers.
00;42;42;25 - 00;42;47;12
Speaker 2
So that'll be an interesting one to see how it plays out. Okay.
00;42;47;14 - 00;43;15;12
Speaker 5
Let me ask you, just steering away from elected politics a little bit, we've been asking guests on the show over the last year about how they feel about AI. And certainly, Don, you may be familiar with what's going on in the Coachella Valley. A number of cities have had real battles over whether to have a data center in their community.
00;43;15;13 - 00;43;38;23
Speaker 5
A lot of the poorer cities have been the ones that have, and they've all voted to reject it. And this is also happening across the nation. A lot of places give us a sense of how you feel about AI, and how much of a problem will it be if we can't find places for these data centers? Melissa.
00;43;38;25 - 00;44;07;10
Speaker 3
Okay, so this is like the third rail issue right now in academia because we are all as in as professors, you know, as as administrators trying to figure out what's the appropriate way to prepare students for a world where AI exists while at the same time maintaining the integrity of the college education that they're getting right? We don't want them using large language models to write their essays.
00;44;07;15 - 00;44;29;28
Speaker 3
We want to make sure they learn how to write and speak and think. And so, you know, we can't just go back to pen and paper and pretend AI doesn't exist, because then they'll get out into the real world and be completely unprepared and at a disadvantage. But then we also have to make sure that they are doing their own learning and doing their own work.
00;44;29;28 - 00;45;00;13
Speaker 3
So I see a as something that particularly in Silicon Valley, because Menlo College is mostly a business school, our students are graduating and taking jobs in startups and in tech companies here in Silicon Valley where they're using AI. So we got to get them ready for it. But at the same time, we do have that challenge of how do we get them to use AI instead of substituting AI.
00;45;00;15 - 00;45;28;20
Speaker 3
And it's a it's a struggle. And then there's also the politics of it, the impact on the climate of it, the water use of it. And so some students have really strong feelings about it that are unconnected to shouldn't I be allowed to use Grammarly to correct my essay before I turn it in? But why am I wasting eight gallons of water asking ChatGPT if this bump on my nose is something I should be worried about?
00;45;28;20 - 00;45;33;10
Speaker 3
And so it's a huge topic of conversation at any college, right?
00;45;33;13 - 00;45;48;09
Speaker 2
Let me ask you real quick, Melissa, as a teacher, how do you do that? I mean, I know high school English teachers who don't don't have any take home work. They do. They have to do all their work in basically in blue books in class.
00;45;48;11 - 00;46;09;08
Speaker 3
And I'm definitely doing some of that. I'm doing some work where no, we're doing this in class, but also all these new tools make it so that I can come up with fun assignments. So, for example, in my political marketing class, every team had a campaign they were assigned to, and they got to use those tools to make fake campaign ads for their candidate.
00;46;09;14 - 00;46;33;15
Speaker 3
That's something they never could have done without AI. And so they're finding ways to use AI to, to, to do cool new things. But then also there's blue books and, you know, they give their oral presentation and then I and then I quiz them. Maybe they had, you know, clawed or or Gemini make their PowerPoint slides. But I'm asking them the questions and they have to know the material.
00;46;33;15 - 00;46;40;03
Speaker 3
So we're all professors are figuring out how to do this. Blue books are definitely still a part of it.
00;46;40;04 - 00;46;58;21
Speaker 2
And the data center issue has created a little bit of a stern here. There was some talk about putting on at the San Mateo County Event Center, where the county fair has been held. I'm not sure where that issue has gone, if anywhere. But as a political issue, is that something that energizes people?
00;46;58;23 - 00;47;44;22
Speaker 4
I have to say that I have been fascinated watching the opposition to data centers grow over the last six months. I think it's probably been there longer, but it's hit my sort of awareness, and I am fascinated across the country that the backlash to data centers, in some ways, it's tied to AI. In some ways I think it's tied to a billionaire backlash, but it is also unique unto itself, and it's sort of reminiscent of, you know, examples of this in the past might have been a logistics center, like a large warehouse with the trucks coming and going and the Amazon deliveries, a power plant, you know, the airport extension, new runways.
00;47;44;24 - 00;48;10;00
Speaker 4
I mean, this has galvanized people across this country, across the political spectrum. And I think it's it's a sort of enough is enough, right. In the Coachella Valley. Bob, I think you're right. You know, you've got this community that, you know, demographically, socioeconomically, it's not Palm Springs with starlets and fancy hotels. And people are like, wait a second.
00;48;10;01 - 00;48;12;26
Speaker 4
You are not going to dump this in our backyard.
00;48;13;02 - 00;48;19;28
Speaker 2
Yeah, well, we've talked for almost an hour and we finally found an issue that's a unifying issue.
00;48;20;01 - 00;48;38;20
Speaker 2
I want to ask one more thing before we go. And thank you both for all your time. We didn't talk it all about the regional transit tax and where you think that might land. I would not be surprised, Don, if the passes. I know you worked on it on behalf of Sam Cedar, but I would also not be surprised if it does not pass the San Mateo County.
00;48;38;25 - 00;48;47;18
Speaker 2
Some of that may have more to do with marketing than it is with the actual issues. But what what does how does each of you see that landing?
00;48;47;20 - 00;49;09;24
Speaker 3
I think a lot of tax measures are going to be rejected. I think as we talked about earlier, there's kind of a sentiment of I'm feeling financially stressed, or even if you're financially comfortable, that it just seems like you keep getting asked to approve more taxes. And so you just kind of have the sense that it's too much already.
00;49;09;24 - 00;49;40;12
Speaker 3
So I think the transit tax, all these other, you know, the property taxes, all all these little taxes are going to be in trouble this year. The people are not feeling it. The the big headline news is prices are going up. Inflation is going up. Interest rates might go back up again. And so in that kind of climate, I think it's hard to get people to vote yes for a tax even for something that they support, like transit or housing or public schools.
00;49;40;15 - 00;49;42;07
Speaker 2
Done.
00;49;42;10 - 00;50;13;15
Speaker 4
Well, Mark, I'm I'm happy to share that the the campaign recently just yesterday the day before released the polling that was just done on it and the through line which has remained steady, 2024 2025. And now with this latest poll, you know, is right around 54% across the five counties that comprise the taxing district. And polling has been strongest in San Francisco and San Mateo counties.
00;50;13;15 - 00;50;43;22
Speaker 4
So I think there there was a lot of emotion and opinions when SB 63 went through the process at Caltrain and Sam Trans. But the good news is, with a well-funded campaign, we can be successful with this in November. But of course, no one knows what will happen to this country or in the Bay area between now and November.
00;50;43;23 - 00;51;18;22
Speaker 4
There's just we live in this moment of such uncertainty from one day to the next. But the good news is the poll numbers remain strong. There's a well-organized campaign, and people have a couple of perspectives on it. They value transit, whether they take transit or not. And most people don't take transit. And the the outcome of what happens to to transit, whether it's Caltrain, Muni, Bart, AC transit is is rather unimaginable.
00;51;18;22 - 00;51;33;17
Speaker 4
And when people hear what that reality could be beginning as early as January of 2027, it's pretty powerful in motivating them to want to to to want to preserve that transit service.
00;51;33;19 - 00;51;46;15
Speaker 2
Well, on that note, I want to thank you, Melissa michelson from Menlo College and Don Cecil from from points north, south, east and west. Thanks.
00;51;46;18 - 00;51;56;04
Speaker 2
I have a few closing comments, but thank you both for joining us, and we'll see you again in a few months. We'll go back and replay all this and see how close either one of you was.
00;51;56;07 - 00;52;00;14
Speaker 3
Oh.
00;52;00;17 - 00;52;06;05
Speaker 2
Any last thoughts? No, I think now.
00;52;06;07 - 00;52;56;01
Speaker 5
There's an undercurrent in Don and I kind of share that right now. We've got some very serious things going on, particularly internationally. This situation in Iran is starting to, you know, rub up against the Ukraine Russia war. We've got the Saudis now coming into it. We've got the Chinese who are saying they're not doing anything, but they're supplying missiles to I think there's we're at a historic point, and beyond that, we're going to have an election on Tuesday in Michigan, which is the first time that we've really seen a test for the Democratic Party between the establishment and the DSA.
00;52;56;03 - 00;53;24;25
Speaker 5
At a statewide level in a purple state. It's pretty clear, based on the news today, that all said, the DSA candidate is going to win that race. He's up by 11 points. In a poll that came out in the New York Times this morning. We've got a lot of things that are going on that I think are going to have huge impacts on our future.
00;53;24;27 - 00;54;00;20
Speaker 2
I think that's maybe the salient message. I think you're right, which is, we all know a month in politics is a lifetime, but the volatility or the potential for volatility in this particular instance is unlike something we've seen in decades, just in terms of what could happen, how people might react to it. I mean, any it's extraordinary that there are any number of ways this could all play out in a completely different direction that we're heading right now, an international crisis and economic crisis.
00;54;00;27 - 00;54;23;26
Speaker 2
I mean, anybody who has a portfolio has seen their numbers go down significantly just in the last two weeks. And that's, you know, you see the market set a record and then two weeks later goes down, you know, 20,000 points. So it's it's a time of great uncertainty. And the smartest thing to do is not what we do, which is not make predictions.
00;54;24;01 - 00;54;28;10
Speaker 2
So well, on that note, I'm Mark Simon.
00;54;28;12 - 00;54;29;15
Speaker 5
And I'm Bob marks.
00;54;29;18 - 00;54;37;12
Speaker 2
Thank you so much for being with us here on the game. We hope to see you again soon. Also thanks for great problem.