SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic IPOs: AI's Reckoning

SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic have all filed for their upcoming IPOs. This speaks pretty heavily to the scale of projectedAI capital spending.

We also cover changing index rules, the size of the raises compared with past market cycles, and Anthropic’s revenue growth and business case.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 IPOs and AI Spending Surge
1:30 SpaceX Leads the Filing Rush
3:39 Index Rules Bend for IPOs
7:13 Anthropic’s Explosive Growth
12:24 Google Raises War Chest
17:52 OpenAI Joins the Race
19:26 Physical Limits on AI Buildout
22:54 Robotics and Orbital Data Centers
23:30 Which IPOs Excite Them Most
26:36 Closing Thoughts and Wrap-Up

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RESOURCES

Josh: https://x.com/JoshKale

Ejaaz: https://x.com/cryptopunk7213

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Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:
https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠

Creators and Guests

Host

Ejaaz Ahamadeen

Host

Josh Kale

What is Limitless: An AI Podcast?

Exploring the frontiers of Technology and AI

Josh:
Three of the largest IPOs in history are filing within weeks of each other.

Josh:
We have SpaceX, OpenAI, and as of just this week, Anthropic.

Josh:
And on that same day, Google raised $80 billion of outside capital to fund its own AI buildout.

Josh:
Now, the interesting part here is they're partly funded by each other's money.

Josh:
Everyone is contributing to the other person's balance sheets.

Josh:
And we've even gone so far as in the last few weeks to change the rules protecting

Josh:
passive investors about how they can invest in IPOs.

Josh:
The biggest buildout in the history of

Josh:
capitalism is currently happening and we have

Josh:
to ask the question is there enough money

Josh:
like clearly there's a reason there's correlation as to why each

Josh:
one of these companies are choosing to go public all around the same time and

Josh:
this chart that we're sharing on screen here is pretty incredible i mean between

Josh:
open ai anthropic and spacex the total amount raised during ipos is going to

Josh:
be 180 billion dollars that's more than the entire dot-com bubble combined at 164 billion dollars.

Josh:
That's three years versus three IPOs. So the scale of this is huge.

Josh:
And I mean, we have to answer a few questions. Is this a circular economy moment?

Josh:
Are they running out of money? Have they outgrown private capital?

Josh:
There's a lot to talk about here, Ejaz, I guess, starting with SpaceX.

Ejaaz:
Yeah, so you've got SpaceX open-air and Anthropik. They're having blockbuster IPOs

Ejaaz:
The story isn't really about like each of them individually.

Ejaaz:
It's the fact that they're all happening potentially within weeks of each other.

Ejaaz:
They're all targeting like by latest a Q4 IPO and the combined raise is absolutely

Ejaaz:
massive. We haven't seen anything like this before.

Ejaaz:
So if we break down like what we've seen so far, we had SpaceX,

Ejaaz:
I think it was April 1st that filed for

Ejaaz:
their S1, which basically is their proclamation that they intend to IPO.

Ejaaz:
I think they're targeting around an IPO sometime either this month or at least

Ejaaz:
early July. That's what the rumor is. are saying right now.

Ejaaz:
And then 10 days ago, we had OpenAI reportedly confidentially file their own S1 for their own IPO.

Ejaaz:
And then 10 days later, aka yesterday, Anthropic filed for their confidential

Ejaaz:
S1, which means that now all three of these companies are going for blockbuster

Ejaaz:
IPOs within potentially weeks of each other.

Ejaaz:
And so it begs the question, why is this happening now? Why such a rush?

Ejaaz:
The answer to me is pretty simple.

Ejaaz:
The AI CapEx build-out is becoming costlier than any of these companies could

Ejaaz:
have expected, and they've decided to lean in.

Ejaaz:
They've run out of free cash flow. Up until this point, all of these companies

Ejaaz:
have spent private money, money that they've raised from investors or earned

Ejaaz:
themselves through revenue.

Ejaaz:
And now they're turning to the public and saying, we need more money to build

Ejaaz:
out more data centers and GPUs so that we can train these models and facilitate

Ejaaz:
all the demand that we're seeing.

Ejaaz:
Now, if you talk to each of these companies, none of them say that there is no demand on their side.

Ejaaz:
Google and I believe Amazon, Microsoft and Meta have all reported profitable

Ejaaz:
quarters through all their AI CapEx expenditure.

Ejaaz:
I think combined, actually, those four companies were aiming to spend around

Ejaaz:
$1 trillion this year, but it's not enough.

Ejaaz:
And so they need more money to kind of like fund all of this thing.

Ejaaz:
The criticism that comes to me is like, I don't know whether this is the point

Ejaaz:
of no return. We were chatting about this before we started recording,

Ejaaz:
where there's no going back after this.

Ejaaz:
We are jumping into the abyss, and whether we're going to lever up through debt

Ejaaz:
instruments or whatever that might be, there is no returning from this. It is all in or nothing.

Josh:
Well, and the thing I found most interesting is it's not just the companies that are going all in.

Josh:
It's the institutions, and it's the public, and it is pretty much everyone who's going all in.

Josh:
So much so that the largest funds on Wall Street that actually host these IPOs

Josh:
are changing the rules just to accommodate them.

Josh:
This most recent one happened around the SpaceX IPO, where index providers,

Josh:
they waived their profitability requirements and cut the seasoning window from

Josh:
90 days to five. Basically, what that means is...

Josh:
A company needed to prove that it was a viable company that could be traded

Josh:
publicly before index funds were required to buy it.

Josh:
Now, those index funds can buy it a lot sooner.

Josh:
So a lot of people who might not want to be investing in SpaceX,

Josh:
their retirement funds, their 401ks, the indexes that hold it are going to be

Josh:
able to invest a lot faster than they normally otherwise would have been.

Ejaaz:
Yeah, this has never happened before. So SpaceX is effectively changing the

Ejaaz:
rules of the IPO market in order to facilitate the massive raise that they're going for.

Ejaaz:
So a few sentences here that caught my eye. This forces over $30 trillion in

Ejaaz:
passive 401k, so retirement fund money, to buy SpaceX.

Ejaaz:
It's forcing them to buy it at IPO valuation. So it roughly means that around

Ejaaz:
24% of SpaceX's IPO supply of shares is going to be absorbed through these passive funds.

Ejaaz:
We've never seen anything like that before. Secondly, typically,

Ejaaz:
if you want to get included in indexes, prestigious indexes,

Ejaaz:
such as the NASDAQ 100 or the Fortune 500, you need to, one,

Ejaaz:
demonstrate that you're earning a ton of revenue, and two,

Ejaaz:
demonstrate that for, I think it was like one or two successive quarters.

Ejaaz:
So we're talking about like three to six months.

Ejaaz:
All of those rules are being waived to days.

Ejaaz:
We're talking like five to 15 days for two separate different indexes that are

Ejaaz:
saying, okay, listen, if you can prove that the IPO price trades above a certain

Ejaaz:
price for this amount, we'll include you the index.

Ejaaz:
Don't worry, we'll forget about it. And we'll get all these pension funds to

Ejaaz:
purchase or buy your stock.

Ejaaz:
So Elon basically needs to keep the stock price up for above a certain level, and he's good to go.

Josh:
Well, it's a little concerning because like for decades, these big indexes,

Josh:
they've had two rules specifically designed to protect ordinary people who just

Josh:
have investment accounts, retirement accounts.

Josh:
And those two rules were like you mentioned, one of them was four straight quarters of profit.

Josh:
And then the other was a minimum float of five to 10%. And actually those were

Josh:
implemented because of the fallout from the dot-com crash.

Josh:
In 1999 to 2000, indexes took a bunch of the super high growth cash losing companies

Josh:
near the top. And that means that 401k holders or retirees, they were also holding

Josh:
those companies and kept holding the bag.

Josh:
So after they got crushed in the bubble burnout, what happened was is that they

Josh:
implemented these rules. Now it feels like we're having deja vu.

Josh:
The rules are getting reversed again. So now you don't actually need to have

Josh:
four straight quarters of gap profit.

Josh:
You just need to have, I believe it's 15 days.

Josh:
So it's like a pretty considerable decrease in the parameters required to allow

Josh:
these index funds to invest.

Josh:
And it's like history doesn't to repeat, but it certainly does rhyme.

Josh:
And it seems like the last time we did this, it wasn't good.

Josh:
Now we're kind of reverting back to those terms.

Josh:
That seems a little bit concerning to me, at least. So that's to be noted.

Josh:
I think it's probably good for the price, right? It's like there's so much buying

Josh:
pressure that's going to be pushing SpaceX up, but the downstream effects of it,

Josh:
not going as well as planned are going to hurt some people who might not want

Josh:
to be buying SpaceX shares in the first place?

Ejaaz:
You know, Josh, I think the main criticism of the SpaceX IPO,

Ejaaz:
and I think honestly, a lot of it is justifiable, is they just haven't proven

Ejaaz:
the revenue model just yet.

Ejaaz:
They're saying like, hey, we'll launch AI data centers in space.

Ejaaz:
We'll do it on our rockets. But they haven't like proven that model,

Ejaaz:
at least even like a proof of concept right now, like they're launching space rockets up there.

Ejaaz:
But like, we don't have GPUs in space that are currently training Frontier models.

Ejaaz:
So it's still kind of like, trust me, bro, in a sense.

Ejaaz:
Now, one company that has proven

Ejaaz:
a lot of revenue and has gone on the craziest story arc is Anthropic.

Ejaaz:
And yesterday, they filed for a draft S1 registration statement of the SEC,

Ejaaz:
which basically states that they plan to IPO in the coming months. Now,

Ejaaz:
The story is very different with Anthropic in a few different ways.

Ejaaz:
Josh, if you remember, at the end of last year, we did an episode, right?

Ejaaz:
And we mentioned something about the CFO, Krishna Rao, of Anthropic.

Ejaaz:
And he said, we have no immediate plans to IPO. We're taking our time.

Ejaaz:
Back then, they had achieved $9 billion of annual recurring revenue.

Ejaaz:
And they had estimated for the entirety of 2026 that they would hit something

Ejaaz:
along the lines of $20 billion of ARR. They hit that in the first month and a half of 2026.

Ejaaz:
And most recently, they just hit $45 billion of ARR.

Ejaaz:
That's because of the success of Claude Code, Claude Cowork,

Ejaaz:
and a host of other enterprise contracts, which they are signing.

Ejaaz:
They're doing a bunch of different JVs. They're raising money from Blackstone.

Ejaaz:
They're doing a ton of different things.

Ejaaz:
So in contrast to SpaceX, they are actually earning a lot of money.

Ejaaz:
So it makes sense that they now want to take this a step further.

Ejaaz:
They're acquiring as much compute as they can. and they're in a race with mainly

Ejaaz:
OpenAI to serve their frontier models, to train their frontier models and to

Ejaaz:
provide it to as many people as they can.

Ejaaz:
That's why I think they're going forward with this IPO. Now,

Ejaaz:
it's important to state that there was no details released, was there?

Ejaaz:
This is just kind of like a mandatory statement that they had to make.

Ejaaz:
OpenAI, I don't think, had to

Ejaaz:
do this, but Anthropic, in the efforts of transparency, decided to do it.

Ejaaz:
I have a few reasons why I think they might be doing it, but I don't know.

Ejaaz:
Do you have any thoughts? Yeah.

Josh:
It's funny. It's a confidential disclosure of a confidential filing.

Josh:
It's pretty ironic, but I think this took a lot of people by shock.

Josh:
Everyone was kind of surprised at the rate. I was looking at Polymarket and

Josh:
everyone expected OpenAI to IPO prior to Anthropoc.

Josh:
So to see this news shocked it and it kind of flipped the margins on their heads

Josh:
there in terms of the Polymarket.

Josh:
But what I'm seeing here with the information post, and this actually looks

Josh:
outdated because the rumors I've

Josh:
been seeing is that Anthropoc is actually growing even faster than this.

Josh:
And it's showing that Anthropoc just has this unbelievable growth trajectory

Josh:
that has been driven by real value add, mostly on the enterprise side in creating

Josh:
these like unbelievable models.

Josh:
I know, I mean, when you think about Mythos now, they announced it,

Josh:
what, two months ago, which means it finished training even before that.

Josh:
And like, they just have these unbelievably powerful models.

Josh:
I feel like they're feeling really confident going into this.

Josh:
And it gets into the conversation about how much money actually is there for the market to absorb.

Josh:
Is there actually a race to go out and collect capital

Josh:
because we know spacex is going first the rumor is maybe around june 12th that's

Josh:
coming in the next like two weeks so that's going to absorb god maybe a hundred

Josh:
billion dollars of capital it looks like they're trying to raise 75 but i'm

Josh:
sure it's going to exceed that how much money can anthropic then pull from that

Josh:
and then if open ai is after them how much money is going to be left for them

Josh:
and it feels like we're just,

Josh:
demanding a lot from public markets and like we started the private markets

Josh:
maybe they're tapped out, maybe they're not, but we're going to quickly learn how fast,

Josh:
public market reserves can get tapped out because this is a tremendous amount

Josh:
of capital everyone's raising.

Ejaaz:
I mean, the way I think about it, right, is you have a subset of investors that

Ejaaz:
are purchasing or will purchase the stocks of these different companies for

Ejaaz:
one particular thesis, right, which is like, I'm bullish on AI.

Ejaaz:
But then you have a whole retail subsection that are like, I just use Claude

Ejaaz:
every day, and it's super helpful to me.

Ejaaz:
So obviously, I'm going to buy that thing, right? I use ChatGPT every day, right?

Ejaaz:
So there's these two subsects, and they're all going to result in the same thing,

Ejaaz:
which is like, we're going to purchase stock of these companies.

Ejaaz:
Now, if you're on the company side, you're using it for one thing.

Ejaaz:
Krishna Rao, CFO of Anthropik, has said it.

Ejaaz:
Sarah Fryer, CFO of OpenAI, has said it. And Elon has said it.

Ejaaz:
We just need more compute because more compute translates into better AIs,

Ejaaz:
which translates into better products, which means that we can serve more customers,

Ejaaz:
which means that we can earn more money.

Ejaaz:
Now, in Anthropik's case particularly, I think the rumors around their AGI-like

Ejaaz:
model called Mythos is very real.

Ejaaz:
We've got like breaking news from today that I have up on the screen that they're

Ejaaz:
rolling out their Project Glasswing, which is kind of like the bucketed sandboxed

Ejaaz:
version of release for Claude Mythos to 150 additional organizations across the entire world.

Ejaaz:
And they even said on a previous statement recently that they're going to be

Ejaaz:
releasing it publicly to people over the next couple of weeks.

Ejaaz:
So I think this all comes at a very coincidental, intentionally coincidental time.

Ejaaz:
And the other thing that's different with Anthropik is they're estimated to

Ejaaz:
be profitable by the end of this month to the tune of $550 million, which, listen,

Ejaaz:
is a drop in the ocean compared to like the trillions of dollars that are being

Ejaaz:
spent on CapEx, but they'll be the first major AI lab to do so.

Ejaaz:
And so it's just this massive run rate. I think of all these IPOs,

Ejaaz:
I'm probably most bullish on the anthropic thing, but they're all different

Ejaaz:
to their own kind of lane.

Josh:
Now, when we were looking at our bubble meter in a few episodes ago,

Josh:
and we were kind of figuring out at what point do things get scary?

Josh:
It was largely around the idea that these large mega companies like Google will

Josh:
start to spend more than their revenues allow them to.

Josh:
Basically, they'll start going into debt to fund these build outs.

Josh:
And we have some indication that we're kind of slowly turning into that territory

Josh:
where Google has ran out of revenue on their balance sheet and are now looking

Josh:
to raise external capital.

Josh:
This is not IPO related as you know Google has been

Josh:
public for a very long time but they need more money so

Josh:
what did they do they went out and raised 80 billion dollars to fund the AI

Josh:
build out that is a tremendous amount of capital I can't remember the total

Josh:
capex spend that they guaranteed but I imagine it's close to like 30 40 percent

Josh:
of the total that they were planning to spend annually and they just went and raised it noteworthy,

Josh:
Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett's old company, wrote a $10 billion check

Josh:
to get in. And it's a pretty huge deal.

Josh:
It's $30 billion in underwritten public offerings, $40 billion through an at-the-market

Josh:
stock program starting in the third quarter of this year, and then $10 billion

Josh:
through private placement to Berkshire, which we just talked about. So it's a huge deal.

Josh:
And he's just I'm curious your take on this, actually, because we did a deep

Josh:
dive into Google's balance sheet.

Josh:
We saw how much money they made. We saw how much they were spending. They were in the green.

Josh:
Now it looks like they're intending to. Are they going to go in the red or are

Josh:
they just offsetting? Are they softening the blow so that they still have a

Josh:
lot of cushion just in case?

Ejaaz:
Yeah, I think they're leaning all in and they'll eventually have books in the red.

Ejaaz:
Larry and Sergey Brin, the founders of Google, said very explicitly,

Ejaaz:
I think it was a year and a half ago, that they are willing to lose it all versus

Ejaaz:
like lose the actual AI race.

Ejaaz:
So they're going to spend, spend, spend until they create enough compute.

Ejaaz:
It's founder mode. They've gone back to founder mode.

Ejaaz:
Sergey Brin came back to Google to do exactly this, to kind of lock in.

Ejaaz:
This is my favorite IPO story of the week. And it's not even an IPO,

Ejaaz:
right? So you have Google, public company, raising $80 billion.

Ejaaz:
Now, the question becomes, what are they using that $80 billion for?

Ejaaz:
Now, the headline is, we're using this $80 billion to build out more AI CapEx.

Ejaaz:
We're going to build more TPUs. We're

Ejaaz:
A story that a lot of people missed is, I think it's like 30 billion of this

Ejaaz:
80 billion is being used to pay off tax obligations for their employees who

Ejaaz:
are cashing out stock over the next couple of months.

Ejaaz:
All right. So like, I just want to be clear here, like, a large chunk of this

Ejaaz:
raise isn't actually going to be used for the AI cap expand.

Ejaaz:
Now, putting that aside, Google isn't a bad actor, in my opinion.

Ejaaz:
They've been pretty transparent as they can be with how much they're spending

Ejaaz:
on all this AI stuff and what they intend to do with all of this.

Ejaaz:
And they're giving it their best shot.

Ejaaz:
Now, what this gives me reminiscence of is, Josh, do you remember at the end

Ejaaz:
of last year, we were kind of saying how OpenAI is kind of distracted.

Ejaaz:
They're kind of focusing on like random AI products and they're like missing

Ejaaz:
the whole coding AI thing and all that kind of stuff.

Ejaaz:
And then they decided to call a code red and lock in. I feel like Google has

Ejaaz:
drifted into that kind of like broad spectrum of things.

Ejaaz:
They're not really focused. They're like building out an agent,

Ejaaz:
but then they're trying to build out a better coding model.

Ejaaz:
They're trying to build out a better generalized LLM, but then they're building

Ejaaz:
out the infrastructure TPUs, but then they're selling those TPUs to competitors,

Ejaaz:
which means that they don't have enough compute to train their own Gemini models,

Ejaaz:
which means that Gemini falls behind, and it has fallen behind.

Ejaaz:
Their recent Gemini 3.5 flash is behind Frontier models despite all this money

Ejaaz:
that they had, and now they need to raise all this money to train a better model.

Ejaaz:
It just seems like they just need to lock in and focus.

Ejaaz:
Now, when I look at this structure, $80 billion, that's a lot of money.

Ejaaz:
It's effectively their own IPO to be able to fund their own build out.

Ejaaz:
I'm not convinced that spending $30 billion of that to write off tax obligations

Ejaaz:
is the best way to do it. It kind of wreaks a little bit of desperation.

Ejaaz:
But I am optimistic because the last four times that we've had this kind of

Ejaaz:
public raise from a major company, Berkshire Hathaway has put in a $10 billion check.

Ejaaz:
And all of those companies have done pretty well. So I'm hoping the same thing

Ejaaz:
is going to happen with Google. But it's just an interesting story.

Josh:
Yeah. I mean, in Berkshire, we trust, right? Like they have been right in the

Josh:
past. They are very disciplined.

Josh:
We're going to hope they continue. It's also nowhere that Google owns a large

Josh:
percentage of a lot of these companies going public.

Josh:
I mean, Google is one of the largest private stakeholders in SpaceX and also Anthropic.

Josh:
So they stand to benefit from the upside of this in a pretty considerable way.

Josh:
It's also a little bit scary how large these numbers are getting.

Josh:
It feels like we're getting numb to the hundreds of billions of dollars number.

Josh:
I mean, Google at $180 to $190 billion in CapEx this year is unbelievable to

Josh:
imagine just a few years ago.

Josh:
So for them to go all in, it's all in at a scale that we have never seen before.

Josh:
And I think that's one of the themes of this episode is we're really experiencing,

Josh:
like this is a very special time in history because never in the history of

Josh:
this country and capitalism has this amount of money and value been concentrated

Josh:
on pursuing a single idea.

Josh:
And the outcomes of that are going to be pretty big.

Josh:
I mean, bubble or not, we're building real value, real intelligence being built.

Josh:
And I think like the actual underlying civilizational shift is going to start

Josh:
to be felt as the outcome of all the spending starts to make its way into the market.

Josh:
And I think it's like it's easy to get lost in the numbers that are huge and large.

Josh:
It actually is going to result in real valuable tools. And we make fun of Google.

Josh:
They haven't come out with a new frontier model in a while.

Josh:
But I mean, I'm just using their tools and services now. And they're noticeably

Josh:
getting smarter and smarter and smarter.

Josh:
One thing I'm excited about is WWDC next week. We're going to be covering that.

Josh:
We'll see how Apple plans to actually roll out these tools and make them smarter

Josh:
and smarter. So we'll see where all the CapEx has been going.

Josh:
But there is one more IPO that's coming that we haven't mentioned, which is OpenAI.

Ejaaz:
Yeah, exactly. So we mentioned it earlier, but 10 days before Anthropic Fall

Ejaaz:
for that, potential IPO. OpenAI did the very same thing.

Ejaaz:
Confidentially confidential filing, by the way. And so it was reported...

Ejaaz:
They get this one confidential.

Josh:
Even though it leaks. It's like, if it's all going to leak, you might as well

Josh:
just publish it yourself.

Ejaaz:
Yeah. What was curious is the polymarket market on this particular IPO spiked

Ejaaz:
up before the Bloomberg and Financial Times report.

Ejaaz:
So there was definitely some insider stuff going on. But basically,

Ejaaz:
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have reportedly been behind the scenes helping

Ejaaz:
OpenAI and prepare for their IPO.

Ejaaz:
If you're wondering why they're doing it, it's for all the same reasons.

Ejaaz:
They wanna raise more money to build out a bunch of different data centers.

Ejaaz:
I think they broke ground on a new data center literally a few days ago, so it's all in.

Ejaaz:
A comment that I have is, and maybe this is like a potentially hot take, Josh, is,

Ejaaz:
I think all of this money that is being raised and is about to be spent is ultimately

Ejaaz:
going to result in a good thing.

Ejaaz:
I think that it's ultimately not going to be bubbly in its nature,

Ejaaz:
and it's going to result in the necessary infrastructure that is going to be

Ejaaz:
onshore in the West or in the U.S.

Ejaaz:
Specifically to create that next bedrock of foundation for technological innovation. You need compute.

Ejaaz:
You need the electrical lines. You need all the substrates to make these GPUs

Ejaaz:
and silicon chips actually work to serve it to customers. You need all of this.

Ejaaz:
And we are currently constrained by physical atoms.

Ejaaz:
If that sounds like a vague statement, it is not. I literally mean that.

Ejaaz:
I sit on the Gavin Baker's camp of opinion here, which is no matter how much

Ejaaz:
money you want to lever up and spend,

Ejaaz:
you can't actually spend the money because you are limited by how slow it is

Ejaaz:
to overcome regulations and build the actual, you know, brick and mortar of

Ejaaz:
the data centers and then create the silicon chips. There's only one ASML.

Ejaaz:
There's only one NVIDIA. There's only one TSMC. And it's hard to scale the physical

Ejaaz:
infrastructure side of AI.

Ejaaz:
So even if you want to lever up and create all these like weird debt structurings,

Ejaaz:
it does not matter because there is nowhere to spend it on. You're limited by physical atoms.

Ejaaz:
And until I see that block get unblocked we're not in a bubble

Josh:
This is my take yeah i mean to talk about gavin

Josh:
baker's point again he always mentions the idea of dark fiber comparing it to

Josh:
the internet bubble era where there was a tremendous amount of fiber optics

Josh:
laid for the internet but there simply wasn't enough use cases for the internet

Josh:
to go through the fibers there was a lot of dark fiber a lot of the build-out

Josh:
didn't get used it didn't generate revenue everything fell apart in this case,

Josh:
I mean, we talk about this all the time, but the GPUs from four or five years

Josh:
ago are being rented for more money than they were four or five years ago.

Josh:
Yeah, they're worth more.

Josh:
They're worth more. And it's funny, like Michael Burry, the big short guy,

Josh:
he was like, no, no, no, that's wrong. Everything's going to crash.

Josh:
He could not have been more incorrect.

Josh:
So, so far, all of the guidance, all the signals that we're seeing are green.

Josh:
They're all positive. Everything looks good. It seems like CapEx is actually returning real value.

Josh:
I mean, there was those rumors about Anthropic maybe turning up profits sometime

Josh:
soon, as you mentioned earlier.

Josh:
That's a really huge deal because if they could actually

Josh:
absorb all of this um fundraising money

Josh:
and then spend it in a way that's capital effective enough where

Josh:
they can return revenue that's like huge and open ai i

Josh:
don't believe they were planning on doing that for at least till the end of

Josh:
this year so all these signs are green the one thing i'm looking out for personally

Josh:
is companies who are cutting back on spending i know there's some news in the

Josh:
headlines about a half a trillion dollar bill that came up for amazon that was

Josh:
unintentional i don't know how true these things are but.

Ejaaz:
I think so you know

Josh:
Yeah so so long as companies are still extracting value from these ai systems

Josh:
then they'll continue to spend because it will just increase the revenue and

Josh:
increase the margins in their own business and so far so good fingers crossed it used to go that way did.

Ejaaz:
You see the uh the crazy stat that christian rao

Ejaaz:
dropped on i think it was like the invest like the best podcast

Ejaaz:
um anthropic for the fortune 10 so like 9 out of 10 of the fortune 10 so the

Ejaaz:
top 10 companies in the world basically use anthropic thought code specifically

Ejaaz:
and their net dollar retention rate which is basically like the budget that

Ejaaz:
they started with january 1st versus how much they estimate to spend by the end of the year

Ejaaz:
is increased by 500%. So they're planning to spend 5x more.

Ejaaz:
But the reason why they're doing that is not because they have to,

Ejaaz:
it's because they want to, because they're getting so much ROI on the back end.

Ejaaz:
So the point is, if this continues to trend in the right way,

Ejaaz:
the definition of a bubble is it's over-levered, and there's not enough demand on the buy side.

Ejaaz:
We're seeing the opposite happen, and we actually can't supply enough of the

Ejaaz:
silicon and compute to serve the buy side. That's why Google's raising $80 billion.

Ejaaz:
That's why all these companies are IPO-ing at massive valuations.

Ejaaz:
It's so that they can serve that.

Ejaaz:
And maybe I'm drinking my own Kool-Aid, but that's my take.

Josh:
Well, and also think about the downstream effects of that. They're huge.

Josh:
Now we have all this infrastructure that we're building out in the United States.

Josh:
We have the ability to build it out.

Josh:
And soon that's going to transition away from software as well.

Josh:
Like software will continue to be important, but I just saw a post from OpenAI

Josh:
recently. They're hiring for a robotics division. They're going to start building robots.

Josh:
SpaceX is building their Optimus robot. We're going to get a reveal probably

Josh:
around the time of the IPO, I would assume to gather a little more attention.

Josh:
And I think what we're seeing here is this like really huge shift of industrializing

Josh:
the United States in a big way.

Josh:
Like we're going to get satellites into space. We're going to send data centers into orbit.

Josh:
This takes a huge amount of capital, but think about the value it delivers.

Josh:
Think about the value of cloning the internet, but putting it into low earth orbit.

Josh:
So that way it's, it's nation state proof. It can never go offline. You never have outages.

Josh:
It's just this unbelievable technology that we're building funded by

Josh:
this capex build out this huge spending and now the public has the opportunity

Josh:
to actually get involved so is it going to be good or bad for the public we

Josh:
will see i'm feeling pretty bullish i think this is where i want to end the

Josh:
show actually ejaz is asking you which of these three if any are you most excited

Josh:
about and most likely to invest in at the ipo.

Ejaaz:
Oh, damn, I'm excited about all of them, dude. Okay, if I had to rank them,

Ejaaz:
it's Anthropic, SpaceX, and OpenAI, but like it's within like a hair's distance

Ejaaz:
between each other. It's so tough.

Ejaaz:
They're all building amazing things. And I do truly believe that these three

Ejaaz:
companies will create products and services that will become the bedrock of

Ejaaz:
everything and anything that we build future businesses on.

Ejaaz:
And so the question is, how much would you value that kind of a company, right?

Ejaaz:
We've never seen anything like this before, right? We've never seen a type of

Ejaaz:
technological disruption which permeates every single industry that you could

Ejaaz:
possibly think of, including the hardware side of things, right?

Ejaaz:
What do you think happens when robotics scales up?

Ejaaz:
You're going to need a robotics model. You're going to need data to do that.

Ejaaz:
That's what these AR labs are going to do.

Ejaaz:
And you're going to need infinite compute, potentially in space.

Ejaaz:
You're going to need really smart models, potentially trained on RL from Anthropic

Ejaaz:
or from OpenAI that is able to do this.

Ejaaz:
And these three companies are the clear bet. So if I take a long-term perspective,

Ejaaz:
which is typically how I invest, I'm going to buy an IPO and we'll see what happens, you know?

Josh:
Yeah, I'm pretty stoked for all of them. I think for me, SpaceX is most interesting.

Josh:
I've been a fan of them for as long as I can remember.

Josh:
They are just such a badass company. How long have you been tracking SpaceX.

Ejaaz:
Josh? You've got to flex that. Come on.

Josh:
Well over a decade, probably close to 15 years.

Ejaaz:
That's it.

Josh:
Like it was as the beginning of the Falcon 9 program started because I remember

Josh:
watching all the live streams. And in fact, my YouTube channel is like,

Josh:
I think, 14, 15 years old or something.

Josh:
The first video I ever posted was like a handheld camera of my screen of the Falcon 9 launch.

Josh:
It was like, it's pretty amazing because it's been so cool to watch them go

Josh:
from the Falcon 1, which is a single rocket thruster to 9 to now Starship,

Josh:
which has like between the booster and the first second stage, like.

Josh:
30, 940 engines. It's like unbelievable how much progress they've made.

Josh:
And it's so exciting because it opens up this awe-inspiring opportunity and

Josh:
having the opportunity to invest in that company to participate is really exciting to me.

Josh:
I know people are upset that it's trading so high on a relative basis,

Josh:
but when you consider what the future looks like in the case they succeed,

Josh:
and when you consider what the team requirements need to look like,

Josh:
there's really no better chance.

Josh:
You can't assemble a better team.

Josh:
You can't assemble a better company than this to take a shot on goal.

Josh:
So it's at least worth getting excited about and supporting that shot on goal,

Josh:
that like civilization is going to do something we've never done before in a

Josh:
really cool and exciting way that stands to benefit everyone else.

Josh:
And that's why I'm excited about SpaceX.

Josh:
I will try to participate. Hopefully it doesn't launch at like a $4 trillion valuation.

Josh:
Hopefully it stays kind of close to the share price it launches at.

Josh:
I think that's another thing we'll have to look out for is like how high the

Josh:
premiums actually are once they start trading, because we know there's going to be a ton of hype.

Josh:
But yeah, I think that's just about everything for this episode. Any final thoughts?

Ejaaz:
Nope, that's pretty much it. I just want to remind the audience that's listening

Ejaaz:
to this that Josh and I are delusionally optimistic about a lot of these different things.

Ejaaz:
We do try to ground ourselves occasionally, but overall, we take an optimistic

Ejaaz:
approach to AI and the frontier of tech.

Ejaaz:
So none of this is investment advice. But if you did enjoy this episode,

Ejaaz:
or if there's anything that you actually disagree with, please let us know in

Ejaaz:
the comments. You guys are very vocal.

Ejaaz:
Wherever you listen to us, if it's on YouTube, if it's on Spotify,

Ejaaz:
if it's on Apple Music or wherever, please subscribe, give us a rating,

Ejaaz:
leave us a review, leave us a comment.

Ejaaz:
We want to hear from you guys about what you guys think. Are you enjoying these kinds of episodes?

Ejaaz:
Are there other topics that we could cover that you might be more interested in hearing more about?

Ejaaz:
Let us know. But Josh, do you have any parting thoughts?

Josh:
That's it. Share this with a friend if you enjoyed. Let them know what they

Josh:
got to know about these IPOs that are incoming.

Josh:
Let us know which ones you're going to be participating in. And as always,

Josh:
we will see you guys in the next episode. Thank you guys so much for watching.

Ejaaz:
See you guys.