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- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net
- WILLAg News Update
- Gary Schnitkey on Crop Insurance ECO
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- WILLAg News Update
- Gary Schnitkey on Crop Insurance ECO
Creators and Guests
What is Closing Market Report?
Established 1985
The Closing Market Report airs weekdays at 2:06pm central on WILL AM580, Urbana. University of Illinois Extension Farm Broadcaster Todd Gleason hosts the program. Each day he asks commodity analysts about the trade in Chicago, delves deep into the global growing regions weather, and talks with ag economists, entomologists, agronomists, and others involved in agriculture at the farm and industry level.
website: willag.org
twitter: @commodityweek
From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report for the March 2026. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett. He's at agmarket.net.
Todd Gleason:I'll update you on some of the latest from Washington DC as it's related to agricultural policy in the Ag News segment. Then we'll have a discussion about crop insurance decisions. Even if you have already made yours, You may want to change them after listening to what Gary has to say and or going to the YouTube website or our own willag.org to watch this morning's webinar. It's an hour long. I'll talk to Gary a bit later in the program today to give you a short version of that webinar about crop insurance decisions on this Thursday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media.
Todd Gleason:It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Nearby May corn for the day at 04:53 and a half, nine and three quarters of a cent higher. July at nine and a quarter at four sixty two and three quarters. December April, seven and three quarters of a cent higher.
Todd Gleason:May beans $11.79 and a quarter, nine and three quarters higher. July up nine and a half at $11.92 and a half. And November futures $11.36 and a half, 6¢ higher. Wheat futures in the soft bread July at $5.93, up 15 and a quarter. The hard red July six zero five and a half, nineteen and three quarters higher.
Todd Gleason:Matt Bennett from agmarket.net now joins us. He's traveling in Iowa today. Hello, Matt. Thanks much for being with us. Why are there?
Matt Bennett:Yeah. So, you know, I've got market to market this week, and they wanted to record it on Thursday instead of Friday. So I had a couple people wanting me to do a meeting in this part of the world. So I did one this morning, and I'm doing one this evening. And then I get to go home, so it's gonna be a little bit of a busy day.
Todd Gleason:It will be a busy day. Those who want to see what you have to say on market to market can, of course, pick it up on channel twelve if you're in the viewing area around Urbana Champaign. That's about a 80 mile radius, so most people can check it out. You can also see it online too. That's market to market 11:30 on Sunday mornings on WILL channel twelve.
Todd Gleason:Now what do you think you'll talk about this afternoon?
Matt Bennett:Well, maybe today's market a little bit. I mean, it's the best market we've seen in a while. You know, clearly, there's a lot of angst about what's going on in The Middle East, availability of fertilizer. I know a lot of the guys we've talked to in different parts of the country have, you know, basically been told that they can't get a price right now on, different types of fertilizer. And so, you know, I think the market's a little bit, hyped up about that.
Matt Bennett:No questions asked. Obviously, with corn, you know, exports were just incredible again this morning, 2,000,000 tons again. And so, you know, essentially, what we're seeing is that, you know, you look at inspections, which we talked about this at the out at the, all day ag outlook, but, you know, inspections running almost well, after today, probably over 45%, you know, ahead of what we were, you know, a year ago, whereas the USD is only forecasting a 15% increase. And so, you know, at 3,300,000 billion bushels, actually, pace analysis would tell you they're too low right now. So it's really been a dynamic situation as far as our exports are concerned.
Matt Bennett:World corn, prices for us are very competitive out of The US still. Argentina is a little cheaper, but quite frankly, we've got more to ship and, a lot of people are wanting to buy off of us right now.
Todd Gleason:Corn you think is trying to keep producers in the of the mind that they will plant corn acres, this spring despite the fact that the price of nitrogen may go up?
Matt Bennett:Yeah. I mean, I think a lot of nitrogen. The nitrogen run last last fall was big. I mean, there's no question.
Todd Gleason:That was my secondary question on that.
Matt Bennett:Yeah. I mean, that was a big run. Now, you know, where it wasn't a big run, Todd, was, you know, your dry fertilizer run. You know, a lot of guys are like, shoot. I'm not paying 900 for dApp.
Matt Bennett:And so some guys were kinda betting on the come there, and prices had backed off some. I've gotta think some guys still bought, but I do think that the fertilizer application for this year, particularly on dry, is gonna be, well short of what we typically see. You know, is that gonna impact this national yield a lot? You can go a year without it, but it's certainly a sign of just how stressed things are, you know, out in the countryside. So but, yeah, anhydrous run last fall was really good.
Matt Bennett:Clearly, there there could be some issues getting a hold of it here this spring. But at the same time, that's probably getting blown a little bit out of proportion right now, which has given us opportunity, you know, that we haven't seen for some time.
Todd Gleason:I kinda wish at this point USDA NASS still had the funding Iowa used to give us numbers as to how far along fertilizer application was in the fall and the spring. Those went by the wayside. That's too bad. Otherwise, we'd have a really good indication for that state. It was the only state that that actually showed up in.
Todd Gleason:So now, soybeans followed along, but, of course, not proportionately. Was that just in sympathy?
Matt Bennett:Yeah. I think the bean market's had one heck of a run here lately. You know, since, you know, you said that, they might buy another 8,000,000 tons off of us when they're trying to news there. You know, when you couple that, of course, with, you know, the RVO, the 45 z, a lot of the, I guess, excitement in the bean market, I think, has been priced in at least for the time being. You can't forget.
Matt Bennett:Most of your estimates are $1.80 or above as far as Brazil crop goes. So, you know, even if China would step in and buy, more US beans, which, you know, a lot of folks still think that's a possibility. It sounds like the the deal or or the meeting between Trump and Xi is still on. If that's the case and they do go ahead and buy a few more beans, I think what's probably gonna happen, Todd, is that we're gonna end up importing beans or bean meal into the Southeast. So it's not like we're gonna run out of beans.
Matt Bennett:It's just you could have a razor thin balance sheet for The US potentially. I'm not counting on that right now, but it could happen that way. But if it does, world balance sheet's gonna be more than adequate.
Todd Gleason:Do you think, that the Venezuela and Iran removal of the heads of those nations and the shutdown of what have been primary sources for oil to China will be a chip that the president can play directly in in China when the in that meeting, so that there might be more ag products that get purchased, or is it the other way around?
Matt Bennett:I mean, I'm assuming that's what he's gonna go for. You know? There's no question in my mind that that's the angle that he's gonna use. I mean, I I still think that as long as he feels confident that the way they're going to go more strategically about these tariffs, you know, that they're still gonna try to say, hey. We're gonna keep these tariffs at this certain level here.
Matt Bennett:He's up to 15% now. You know? And and we're not going to go whole hog and get crazy on him, which I don't know that he's got the ability to do that anyway. But lower tariffs for China certainly means that they're gonna make a heck of a lot more money off the products that they're selling to us than what they're gonna have to spend, you know, for beans that are running a dollar higher than Brazil. So, in my opinion, he's still gonna try to take the same type of angle that he is.
Matt Bennett:Does it mean we're gonna sell more products to them? I think it's anybody's guess, but, we gotta certainly hope so.
Todd Gleason:Any thoughts on next week's WASDE report before I let you go?
Matt Bennett:I don't think there's gonna be a whole lot in the way it changes, Todd. I mean, if they maybe drop Argentina a little bit on production, they've certainly struggled to get the rainfall. But as far as The US balance sheet on corn and beans, I kinda feel like they're gonna wanna see what usage looks like in the quarterly stocks at the end of the month, you know, and, of course, see what acreage looks like then. That'll be the much bigger report to look at.
Todd Gleason:We'll look forward to watching you Sunday morning on channel twelve's Market to Market, and good luck tonight with them.
Matt Bennett:Absolutely. Appreciate it.
Todd Gleason:That, of course, is Matt Bennett. He is with agmarket.net. In today's agricultural news, the top house ag democrat charged in a superpartisan farm bill markup that the farm food coalition is dead, and this may be the last traditional farm bill. Angie Craig complained Republicans wrote a partisan farm bill that cut snap amid high grocery prices and shifts program cost to the states. Craig hoped the senate would do better, but as far as the farm bill's future right now
Angie Cragi:For some of us, this is your first farm bill markup. For all of us, it could likely be our last because by decimating the nutrition title of the farm bill by splitting the food and farm programs apart as Republicans have done in this process, you have destroyed the farm bill coalition.
Todd Gleason:But ag chair GT Thompson was having none of it.
GT Thompson:I've heard it over and over again like a broken record that we broke the long term ag and food coalition. Well, if the farm bill is $1,300,000,000,000 and 1,100,000,000,000.0 is the food side of it, that doesn't seem like a very strong coalition. That broke a long time ago, and we disadvantaged the people for decades who actually grow the food that is consumed by everybody.
Todd Gleason:Democrats offered amendments to roll back snap savings like cost shifts and work requirements in last year's tax and spending bill. Majority Republicans voted them down. Illinois Democrat Eric Sorensen was furious that veterans were not exempted from work requirements to get meager daily SNAP benefits.
Eric Sorenson:I cannot believe that we are here today, and people on the other side of the aisle are saying, you know what? Sorry. You may have gone off to war, but go get a job and then come back to us for your $6.
Todd Gleason:Jared Thompson called it disgusting if veterans weren't ever given an upward pathway to a job. Other less controversial amendments were either passed or withdrawn. Mandating CRP base acre updates did not make it. Increasing some loan limits did. Writers challenging the president's tariffs went nowhere while the house farm bill markup continued late into its second day.
Todd Gleason:Elsewhere in Washington DC, there continues to be a great deal of discussion of fertilizer prices as it's related to the attack on Iran. The now closed Strait Of Hormuz moves about 20,000,000 barrels of crude oil and petroleum products daily, totaling about 20% of global demand. DTN reports that fertilizer exports also moved through the strait, including about a quarter of the globally traded nitrogen market. Politico said the White House will offer naval escorts and political risk insurance for oil and gas tankers traveling through the Strait Of Hormuz in a bid to slow down a surge in energy prices after Iran warned it will attack ships at a choke point in the Strait. The announcement brought some immediate relief to the overheated crude oil market.
Todd Gleason:Politico reported in a true social post. President Trump said he's ordered the US Department of Finance Corporation to provide risk insurance and guarantees for The US financial security of all maritime trade, especially energy. If necessary, the US Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait Of Hormuz, Trump added. And finally, today, the tech industry's relentless push for data centers in rural areas is colliding head on with farmers who see the projects as a threat to their way of life. Politico said the issue is drawing vocal criticism from conservative candidates for political office and fueling unrest in Republican primaries.
Todd Gleason:Data center supporters are looking at vast parts of the nation's farmland as excellent sites for the sprawling server packed facilities they need to support the White House goal of making The US the dominant force in developing artificial intelligence. And that's a quick look at today's agricultural news. Gary Schnicki, agricultural economist here on the Urbana Champaign campus. The U of I now joins us to take a look at crop insurance decisions that producers across the Midwest will need to make for both corn and soybeans by the March. There's an insurance evaluator on the farm doc site.
Todd Gleason:We'll talk about that in just a bit. But Gary, this year is new and a bit different for crop insurance because there are ECO and SEO products which have been around for a long time. But the one big beautiful bill act along with some movement by USDA has subsidized those two particular products at the 80% level, and that really changes the way you have thought about what producers should do.
Gary Schnitkey:No. The the 80% ink or 80% subsidy, which is an increase from 65% last year, is a game changer in my opinion for ECO and SCO. It makes those products cause them to have positive net benefits for the farmer, which means that over time, farmers should expect to receive more back in payments than they put into farmer paid premium, and that results from the 80% subsidy. So RMA is supposed to be setting the premium so that little under a dollar is received for each dollar of premium. Farmers are only paying 20% of it, so for every 20¢ they put in, they should be getting close to 90¢ back.
Gary Schnitkey:There's a loss reserve built in there. Well, it doesn't quite work out that good. It's 20¢ in, 45¢ back, but that's still a positive return over time. And and and farmers will benefit from that positive return.
Todd Gleason:That's for the state of Illinois. Other outlying areas have different ranges roughly speaking? Or
Gary Schnitkey:Yes. That that's for Illinois, roughly the Midwest overall. Those those ranges outside of Illinois tend to have higher or better rated products so that they get a higher payout relative to the payments they pay in relative to the Midwest, in particular, the state from Ohio to Iowa.
Todd Gleason:I'm sure that there will be much discussion about the actuarial tables in the future and how they can or maybe should be adjusted. But today, we're talking about crop insurance for this year. This is a game changer, ECO, SEO. What's kind of the bottom line for producers, I suppose, not only here, but across much of the Midwest as it's related to how they should deal with this? And then we'll take up that insurance evaluator and how they can see it.
Gary Schnitkey:Yeah. So the thing that I would say you want to do is take ECO at the 95% level. There's two levels, ninety five percent and ninety percent. You I would suggest taking it at the 95% level, and that will provide county level protection from 95% down to 86%. So that that's the number one thing.
Gary Schnitkey:Take that policy. And then number two, you might want to lower your RP policy coverage level. If you've been taking 85%, you might lower it to 80 or 75%. And if you lower it, you're gonna have the same premium as if you just took the RP 85% policy, but with better risk protection. And then you might think about adding SCL from 86% to whatever your RP policy is.
Gary Schnitkey:But the big thing is is take take take a look at that ECO 95%. And then if you're concerned with premium and payment levels, just lower the RP to 80 or 75%, add some SEO, and go along your way. Then you'll have the same farmer paid premium as roughly last year, and you'll have better risk protection and a higher net benefit.
Todd Gleason:Those who want to learn more can always visit the PharmDoc website or PharmDoc daily and look under events and archives. There is a brand new webinar that's been posted there, an hour long, that will take you through all of this, or you can simply go to youtube.com/@pharmdoc. That's /the@signpharmdoc, and you should see that webinar. It's, of course, from Thursday, March 0 what is today? The fifth or the sixth or thereabouts?
Gary Schnitkey:Fifth.
Todd Gleason:Fifth. And you can check that out. Also, we'll put it on the homepage at willag.org, willag.org, and it will be the only YouTube video there so you can check it out. I do wanna talk about one of the last segments in that because you were talking about the payouts. You have something you called regret.
Todd Gleason:The the regret and and how this differs over time. So if I just took a r p 85% product as opposed to, let's say, 75% plus SEO and ECO, what what's what's the regret? I mean, the regret would be, will that would will that RP product alone pay out better?
Gary Schnitkey:Yeah. Yep. So if and let's just make that comparison explicit. RP 85 versus RP 75 plus SCL plus ECO 95%. That combination will have a lower premium in most cases than r p 85.
Gary Schnitkey:It will have a higher net benefit for for corn. It's often $35 higher for soybeans, it's up $15 higher. But there's a 5% chance that that bundle RP 75 SCL and ECL will pay less than RP 85 policy.
Todd Gleason:In any given year.
Gary Schnitkey:In any given year. And and and and, you know, that's just one in 20 years that will pay less. And and that situation generally is the RP are the underlying triggers somewhere between 8575%. You don't get down to 70%, and the ECO and SCO aren't triggering.
Todd Gleason:Okay. Now let's get down to some nitty gritty. If people want to compare these products on their own, there is a really good crop insurance evaluator tool. It's a calculator that you can use from the FarmDoc site at farmdoc daily or farmdoceither1.illinois. Under the tools it's the crop insurance evaluator.
Todd Gleason:What does it do and how does it work?
Gary Schnitkey:So what I will do is you'll select a state county crop and you can also select the basic and optional unit. And it will give estimates of payments for all different combinations of products. But what we would suggest you do is you enter what you did last year, and that might be RP 85%. And it'll say this is what the premium will be this year. This is what we would expect the average indemnity to payment to be over time.
Gary Schnitkey:It'll give you the probability of having a payment, net benefit, and then a worst cut loss scenario. Then you can go into compare mode and you can add different things and compare how that compares to your basic product. And again, if you're looking if you start with something like RP 85 and RP 80%, then look at adding ECO and SCL and and and looking at what that does to farmer paid premiums. Depending on what you do, you can lower it and increase your expected benefit and also increase your expected loss worst case scenarios. Scenarios.
Todd Gleason:Yeah. So it is very neat because you put what you did last year in, shows up in one panel. There are two more panels by default. You can add extras where you can change and you can see in real time what the changes would be to add SEO, take ECO off, those kinds of things. And you can compare at least two products, different products, or possibly several others if you keep adding to them.
Todd Gleason:It is in the compare mode. You do need to remember to to hit that up at the top, but it's a very nifty kind of evaluator. Folks can see that again by going to pharmdoc or pharmdocdaily.illinois.edu looking under the tools section for the crop insurance evaluator. It differs from the crop insurance premium development tool. So make sure it's the crop insurance evaluator.
Todd Gleason:As we wrap up again, let's go back through recommendations at this point across the state for corn and or soybeans? And do they differ very They
Gary Schnitkey:don't differ very much. Look at ECO 95%. Take that one. You may think about lowering your RP coverage level. If you lower your RP coverage level, you'll you'll get a farmer pay premium roughly the same as last year.
Gary Schnitkey:It's important as we're looking at cost, obviously, and then think about adding SCL.
Todd Gleason:Thank you very much.
Gary Schnitkey:You're welcome, Todd.
Todd Gleason:Gary Schnitke is an agricultural economist on the Urbana Champaign campus at the University of Illinois. If you'd like to learn more about the crop insurance evaluation tool or just simply the crop insurance decisions that Gary Schnitke along with Nick Paulson are thinking producers across Illinois, the Midwest for that matter might make on corn or soybeans prior to the March 15 deadline. You can do that on the FarmDoc daily web page right now. Look for it under events and archives. You'll find it there, or you can just go to youtube.com/@pharmdoc and look for that webinar.
Todd Gleason:Also posted to w I l l a g dot o r g website. That's willag.org later today. You've been listening to the closing market report on this Thursday afternoon. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleeson.