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Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for February 19, 2025.
Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and
our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.
We collected and mapped 54 events
on Tuesday, including negotiations
over Ukraine and Israel.
We have a lot to cover,
so let's get started.
Political Conflict
"Afghanistan
Taliban supreme leader Akhundzada
convened an emergency meeting with
governors from four southern provinces
(Kandahar, Zabul, Uruzgan, and
Helmand) to address security threats.
The meeting focused on preventing
ISIS attacks, securing Pakistan border
routes, and combating drug trafficking.
Officials discussed increasing community
engagement, investigating Taliban members'
potential involvement in the narcotics
trade, and monitoring NGO activities."
"Burundi
A significant refugee crisis is
unfolding as nearly 10,000 people from
the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
have fled to Burundi over three days due
to advancing Rwanda-backed M23 forces.
The rebels recently captured Bukavu, a
key city in South Kivu province, located
about 50km from the Burundian border.
Burundi, which has deployed over
10,000 troops to support the Congolese
army against M23, is working with
the UN refugee agency to process and
shelter the incoming refugees, who
are entering through both official
and unofficial border crossings.
The situation prompted Burundi to
temporarily close a major border
crossing to manage the refugee flow."
"Colombia
Colombia's ELN guerrilla group declared
a 72-hour ""armed strike"" in Choco,
forcing civilians to stay home and
halting transportation and services.
The group claims to expose alleged
government-military-mercenary collusion.
The government has suspended peace
talks with ELN due to the humanitarian
crisis, which includes forced recruitment
of minors and civilian deaths."
"Cook Islands
The Cook Islands has signed a strategic
partnership with China covering
deep-sea mining, education, and economic
cooperation, excluding security ties.
The deal sparked protests and concerns
both domestically and from New
Zealand, which has constitutional
ties with the Cook Islands.
While China offers a $4m grant and
opportunities in trade and infrastructure,
opposition parties worry about risks to
sovereignty and existing relationships.
PM Mark Brown insists the
partnership complements rather
than replaces traditional alliances
but faces a no-confidence vote."
"Democratic Republic of Congo
M23 rebels, backed by Rwanda,
have captured two major Congolese
cities - Bukavu and Goma.
UN officials report the rebels
have committed atrocities,
including killing children and
attacking humanitarian facilities.
The conflict has caused thousands
of deaths and massive displacement.
M23, the dominant group among many
fighting for control of Congo's mineral
wealth, claims to protect Tutsis
and Congolese of Rwandan origin.
Rwanda accuses Congo of
harboring genocide perpetrators.
The ongoing crisis has displaced over
6 million people, making it the world's
largest humanitarian emergency."
"Egypt
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah
el-Sissi was scheduled to visit Riyadh
on Thursday to discuss an Arab plan
for Gaza's reconstruction, which would
serve as an alternative to Trump's
US-controlled redevelopment proposal.
However, the summit has been
rescheduled to March 4, according
to Egypt's foreign ministry."
"France
European leaders met in Paris on
February 17, 2025, expressing willingness
to provide security guarantees to
Ukraine, though contingent on U.S.
participation.
The EU plans to approve 5
billion euros in additional aid.
While British PM Starmer suggested
potential peacekeeping forces following
a peace deal, German Chancellor Scholz
called such discussions premature.
Leaders emphasized that any peace
agreement must include Ukraine's consent
and warned against hasty ceasefires."
"Gaza Strip
Heavy equipment and mobile
homes have begun entering Gaza
through the Rafah crossing from
Egypt, according to Al-Ghad TV.
This development follows recent
tensions where Hamas had threatened
to stop releasing hostages unless
such construction equipment
was permitted to enter Gaza."
"Gaza Strip
According to a joint assessment by
the UN, EU, and World Bank, Gaza and
West Bank reconstruction following the
Israel-Hamas conflict will require $53.2
billion over ten years, with
$20 billion needed in the first
three years of recovery efforts."
"Israel
Israel's Prime Minister's Office has
confirmed that six living hostages
will be released on Saturday as
part of phase one of the Hamas deal,
following negotiations in Cairo.
Additionally, four bodies of
deceased hostages will be released
on Thursday, with Hamas required to
release four more bodies next week.
The hostages' families have been
notified, and Israeli officials are
characterizing the Cairo agreement
as ""an important achievement""
if successfully implemented."
"Israel
Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon
Sa'ar announced upcoming negotiations
for the second phase of the Gaza
ceasefire deal, which will focus on
exchanging remaining Israeli hostages
for Palestinian security prisoners.
The talks, originally scheduled for
February 3, will begin this week
following a security cabinet meeting.
Sa'ar emphasized Israel's demand for
complete demilitarization of Gaza and
rejected both Hamas and Palestinian
Authority control of the region."
"Lebanon
As today's US-brokered ceasefire
deadline arrives, Lebanon has declared
it will consider any remaining Israeli
military presence on its territory as
occupation, asserting its right to use
all means necessary to ensure withdrawal.
While Israel agreed to the
February 18 deadline, it plans to
maintain forces in five strategic
locations in southern Lebanon.
Following a meeting between Lebanon's
top leaders, officials announced the
army's readiness to assume border
control duties and their intention to
seek UN Security Council intervention
regarding Israeli violations and to
compel immediate Israeli withdrawal."
"Saudi Arabia
Secretary of State Rubio met with
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov
following a Trump-Putin call.
The meeting, held in Saudi Arabia,
resulted in three key agreements:
establishing bilateral diplomatic
consultations, appointing teams to
work on ending the Ukraine conflict,
and developing future cooperation on
geopolitical and economic matters.
The U.S.
team included National Security
Advisor Waltz and Ambassador Witkoff,
while Russia was represented by
Lavrov and Presidential Aide Ushakov.
While marking an important step
toward peace, both sides acknowledged
that more engagement would be
needed for lasting results."
"Syria
The Syrian Democratic Forces
announced key agreements with
stakeholders in northern and eastern
Syria aimed at enhancing stability.
Major points include integrating SDF
forces into the Syrian army, reactivating
civil institutions, removing foreign
fighters, increasing coordination with
Damascus, maintaining Syria's unity,
and facilitating refugee returns.
Implementation committees were
formed to execute these provisions.
While SDF commander Mazloum Abdi
affirmed ongoing efforts to serve
Syria's interests, the Syrian
government has not yet officially
confirmed these agreements."
"Turkey
President Zelenskyy, speaking at the
opening of Ukraine's new embassy in
Ankara, emphasized that Ukraine seeks
peace but will not compromise on its
territorial integrity and sovereignty.
He called for security guarantees from the
US, EU, Türkiye, and European partners.
Zelenskyy firmly stated that
Ukraine will never recognize
Russian-occupied territories as part
of Russia and prefers to reclaim
these territories through diplomatic
means to protect Ukrainian lives."
Terrorism
"Guyana
Six Guyanese soldiers were injured
in an attack by armed men firing from
the Venezuelan side of the Cuyuni
River during a resupply mission.
The incident adds to existing tensions
between Guyana and Venezuela over the
disputed Essequibo region, which comprises
two-thirds of Guyana's territory."
"India
Security forces successfully neutralized
two pressure cooker IEDs in South Kashmir
- one in Shopian's Chitragam area and
another in Pulwama's Pinglish locality.
Joint police-army patrols detected
both devices and were safely destroyed
by bomb disposal squads, preventing
potential harm to civilians and
security personnel in the area."
"Kenya
Two al-Shabaab suspects were arrested
in Mandera East for plotting to
kidnap Chinese construction workers.
The main suspect, Isaac Abdi Mohamed,
entered Kenya from Somalia and
forged documents to appear Kenyan.
His accomplice, Noor Yacob Ali, was
to receive Sh100,000 for helping
with the kidnapping and Sh300,000
for transporting victims to Somalia."
"Pakistan
A terrorist attack in Shadipur,
Kohat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, left one
policeman injured when militants
threw a hand grenade at a police van.
Security forces killed one militant
and made several arrests in response."
"Philippines
An armed ambush in Mamasapano,
Maguindanao del Sur, killed one
person and injured three others,
including a six-year-old child.
The incident occurred on Monday morning
when gunmen attacked the group, who were
traveling in a minivan and motorcycles.
The attackers fled on
motorcycles after the assault."
"Syria
SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) fighters
successfully thwarted an attack by two
ISIS terrorists near al-Hasakah in Syria.
The terrorists were killed after
they attempted to infiltrate an SDF
military position and opened fire."
"West Bank
According to Palestinian media, settler
extremists conducted an overnight attack
in Susya, near Hebron in the southern West
Bank, setting fire to multiple vehicles.
While video evidence shows at
least one burning vehicle, no
injuries have been reported."
Military Conflict
"Gaza Strip
The IDF reports firing warning shots
at Palestinian suspects who approached
troops in various areas of Gaza today,
with direct fire used against one suspect
in southern Gaza who ignored warnings.
Additionally, a drone strike was
conducted in central Gaza to prevent
unauthorized vehicle movement northward.
The military emphasizes that vehicles
must only use the Salah a-Din road, where
inspections are conducted, and warns
Gaza residents to follow instructions
and avoid approaching troops."
"India
Indian and Pakistani troops exchanged
fire across the Line of Control
(LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir's Poonch
sector on Sunday around 11 AM.
The incident began when Pakistani
forces initiated small arms fire on
an Indian post, prompting the Indian
Army to respond with retaliatory fire.
No Indian casualties were
reported in the exchange."
"Iraq
The Turkish Ministry of Defense reported
neutralizing two PKK members in the
Kurdistan Region during Operation
Claw-Lock and Kara in northern Iraq.
The PKK operates from the Qandil
Mountains and uses various locations
to launch attacks against Turkey."
"Lebanon
As the ceasefire deadline expires, the
IDF has withdrawn from most southern
Lebanese villages while maintaining
five strategic positions, according
to a Lebanese security source.
The Lebanese army is gradually
deploying to vacated areas, including
key border towns like Mais al-Jabal
and Blida, though explosives and
damaged roads hamper progress.
Local authorities are urging
displaced residents to await
Lebanese army deployment before
returning to ensure safety."
"Lebanon
Following the IDF withdrawal, the Lebanese
Armed Forces (LAF) deployed troops
overnight to multiple villages and towns
in southern Lebanon near the Israeli
border, including Aabbasiyyeh, Kafr Kila,
Bint Jbeil, and several other locations.
The deployment, coordinated with a US-led
ceasefire committee and UN observer
force UNIFIL, includes engineering
units conducting area surveys, opening
roads, and safely removing unexploded
ordnance left from the fighting."
"Pakistan
Pakistani security forces conducted
an intelligence-based operation in
South Waziristan District, resulting
in the elimination of 30 terrorists.
The operation took place in the
Sararogha area, and follow-up
operations are ongoing."
"Philippines
A Chinese Navy helicopter performed
dangerous maneuvers within 3
meters of a Philippine surveillance
flight carrying journalists over
the disputed Scarborough Shoal.
This incident is the latest in a
series of confrontations in the
South China Sea, following recent
clashes involving Australian
aircraft and Philippine vessels."
"Sudan
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has
allegedly killed over 200 civilians
in Sudan's White Nile state amid
an ongoing civil war with the
military that began in April 2023.
The conflict between army chief Gen
al-Burhan and RSF leader Hemedti
has displaced 12 million people."
"Sudan
The RSF attacked the Zamzam
displacement camp near El Fasher,
North Darfur, but were repelled
by SAF and Darfur Joint Forces.
The camp, housing one million
displaced people, has suffered severe
damage from recent RSF attacks.
Casualties from Monday's
attacks were not reported."
"Sudan
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
has made significant territorial
gains against the Rapid Support
Forces (RSF) in several key areas.
The SAF captured the Kafouri area
in Bahri city, which was the RSF's
last stronghold in the region and a
strategic location for artillery attacks.
Additionally, the army took control
of Al-Rahad city in North Kordofan
State, an important railway hub."
"Syria
The Turkish military conducted airstrikes
targeting positions in the towns of
Sarrin and Al-Sheiokh near Ain Al-Arab
in eastern Aleppo's countryside.
Turkish reconnaissance aircraft and
fighter jets maintained an active presence
in the area during the operation."
"Syria
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
conducted multiple attacks against
Turkish-backed National Army
factions in different locations.
In Aleppo countryside near Deir
Hafer, the attack resulted in two
militia deaths and one injury.
Additional SDF attacks occurred
at Syriatel Hill near Teshreen
dam and in Haj Hussein village,
though casualties were unconfirmed.
A separate attack in the Tel Tamr
area of western Al-Hasakah killed
one National Army militiaman."
"Taiwan
The Taiwanese Ministry of National
Defense reported monitoring
Chinese military activity near
Taiwan over a 24-hour period.
They detected eight military aircraft
(4 of which crossed the Taiwan
Strait median line), nine naval
vessels, and one official ship.
In response, Taiwan deployed
combat aircraft, naval vessels, and
missile defense systems to monitor
these activities, particularly in
Taiwan's southwestern air defense
identification zone (ADIZ)."
"Ukraine
Russian forces conducted attacks
in Ukraine's Donetsk region,
resulting in one civilian death
in Pokrovsk and three injuries.
Russians carried out two drone attacks
in Kostiantynivka, targeting rescue
workers delivering water and later
injuring three members of an evacuation
team, including two police officers and
a local military administration head."
"Ukraine
A Russian FPV drone attack in Kupiansk
resulted in three men being injured in the
village of Kutkivka, Kupiansk district.
The victims, aged 23, 48, and 50, suffered
shrapnel wounds and were hospitalized.
The attack also damaged private homes
and struck a truck in the village
of Prystin using a Molniya UAV,
causing the vehicle to catch fire."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted
a major Russian drone attack, shooting
down 103 out of 176 Shahed-type
attack UAVs and decoy drones launched
from multiple locations, including
Russian territory and occupied Crimea.
The attack occurred between
February 17-18, 2025, affecting
multiple Ukrainian regions.
While Ukrainian defenses were largely
successful, some attacks got through,
notably in the Kirovohrad region, where
a drone strike on a residential building
injured a woman and her two children.
The defensive operation involved
anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic
warfare units, and mobile fire groups
across twelve Ukrainian regions."
"Ukraine
Russian strikes on Ukraine's Kherson
region on February 17 resulted
in eight injuries and widespread
damage across multiple settlements.
The attacks damaged residential
buildings (including an apartment
building and nine private homes),
a ""point of invincibility,""
an outbuilding, and vehicles.
Ukrainian air defense successfully
intercepted two Russian
Shahed drones overnight."
"Ukraine
Russian forces launched a massive
nighttime airstrike on Mylove village
in Ukraine's Kherson region, using nine
guided bombs that damaged around 50
homes, with three completely destroyed.
The attack also struck a school,
kindergarten, and store, though
no casualties were reported
in this specific incident."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,170 Russian
soldiers over the past day.
Over 335 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."
"Ukraine
An 80-year-old man was killed when
Russian forces shelled Orikhiv in
Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, with
his body being discovered beneath
the ruins of his destroyed home.
Regional military administrator
Ivan Fedorov reported the incident
through a Telegram message."
"Ukraine
Russian shelling damaged a fire
station's building and equipment
in the Novhorod-Siverskyi
district in the Chernihiv region.
No casualties were reported,
and local police are assessing
the attack's aftermath."
Civil Unrest
"Turkey
Turkish authorities conducted a major
crackdown against the banned Kurdistan
Workers' Party (PKK), detaining 282
people across 51 provinces over five days.
The suspects were accused of
financing the PKK, recruiting
members, spreading propaganda, and
participating in violent demonstrations.
The operation, which resulted in the
seizure of weapons, including AK-47s,
comes amid potential peace talks
between Ankara and the Kurdish group."
"United States
On Presidents Day 2025, thousands of
Americans participated in nationwide
protests organized by the ""50501
Movement"" to demonstrate against
President Trump and Elon Musk's
actions in the federal government.
Protesters gathered at state
capitols and public spaces across the
country, expressing concerns about
mass firings of federal employees,
Musk's leadership of the Department
of Government Efficiency (DOGE),
healthcare coverage, and data privacy.
In Washington, D.C.,
demonstrators called on Congress
to take stronger action against
what they view as executive
overreach, with movement organizers
promising more protests to come."
Accidents
"Bolivia
A fatal bus accident in Yocalla,
Bolivia, resulted in at least 30
deaths when the vehicle plunged
into an 800-meter-deep ravine.
The crash occurred on a narrow
road between Potosi and Oruro,
with 15 people reportedly injured.
Police suspect speeding was the cause, as
the driver lost control of the vehicle.
Some of the injured passengers are in
serious condition at a local hospital."
"Canada
A Delta Flight 4819 from Minneapolis
crashed at Toronto Pearson International
Airport on February 17, 2025, when
the CRJ 900 aircraft flipped over and
caught fire on a snow-covered runway.
All 80 occupants (76 passengers
and four crew) survived, though
18 were hospitalized, including
three in critical condition.
The incident occurred during strong
winds and blowing snow, though
officials noted the runway was
dry with no crosswind conditions.
The Transportation Safety Board of
Canada is investigating the cause,
while the airport has partially resumed
operations after a temporary shutdown."
"India
A private bus accident in Punjab's
Faridkot district resulted in five
deaths and 26 injuries when the vehicle
fell into a drain from a 10-foot high
bridge on the Faridkot-Kotkapura road.
The incident occurred around 8 AM
while the bus was traveling from
Muktsar to Amritsar with 36 passengers.
While officials suggest the driver
lost control, witnesses claim the bus
collided with a truck before falling."
"Syria
One person died from a landmine
in Tartous, while another was
injured in Al-Sukhna, Homs.
In Deir Ezzor's Haribsha Desert, a
landmine killed one person and injured
three others during truffle hunting.
Additionally, a child died from
a hand grenade explosion in Himar
Al-Ali Town, western Deir Ezzor."
"United States
A freight train carrying printer paper
experienced a minor derailment in
Littleton, Massachusetts on Tuesday
morning, with three boxcars coming off
the tracks at the Gilson Road crossing.
No hazardous materials were involved
and no injuries were reported.
While the incident initially caused
road closures, the affected cars were
rerailed, operations were restored, and
the road reopened within a few hours.
The cause of the derailment
is still being investigated."
"United States
A train derailment occurred near
Bakersfield in Caliente, involving
15 Union Pacific rail cars.
The incident happened around 9 a.m.
on Tuesday, prompting emergency crews
to respond to the area of Caliente
Bodfish Road and West J Street.
Fortunately, no injuries were
reported, and no chemical spills or
leaks resulted from the derailment."
"United States
A freight train derailed near
Union Station on NJ Transit's
Raritan Valley Line at 6:50 AM
on Tuesday, February 18, 2025.
Approximately 20 cargo container cars
were affected, with some completely
derailed and one tipped over.
The incident disrupted service for
the line's 23,000 daily riders, though
limited service resumed by noon.
Recovery efforts are expected to be
complex, requiring crane equipment
to remove the derailed cars."
Other Events
"Iran
A British couple, Craig and
Lindsey Foreman, were arrested in
Iran on espionage charges while
on a worldwide motorbike tour.
Despite the UK Foreign Office's advice
against travel to Iran, the couple chose
to proceed with their five-day visit.
After visiting Tabriz, Tehran, and
Isfahan, they disappeared before
reaching their hotel in Kerman.
The charges are particularly
concerning as Iranian law lacks a clear
definition of espionage, though the
country has previously charged other
foreigners with similar accusations."
"Iran
The IRGC (Islamic Revolution Guards
Corps) Ground Force has initiated a
major military exercise called ""The
Great Prophet 19"" in the Shavariyeh
region of Khuzestan province.
The drill, which began on Monday, features
the deployment of domestically-produced
drones and includes plans to unveil
new unmanned aerial vehicles."
"Thanks for joining us for the February
19, 2025 Geopolitical Report Daily.
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