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The Honest Money Show is your guide to understanding what money really is, and where Bitcoin fits in. Hosted by Anja Dragovic, Australia's female-led, Bitcoin-only podcast, it cuts through the noise to explore how money shapes our lives, why the current system leaves so many people behind, and what a clearer, fairer future could look like.
Expect honest, accessible conversations with some of the most interesting thinkers in the space, the kind that take you from "I don't really get this" to genuinely curious. No hype, no pressure, just money, made clear.
Whether you're brand new to these questions or already deep in them, you're welcome here.
The word on the streets is that going back
a few years ago, you invested something
like $10,000 or $20,000 and turned it into
$1 million.
Bitcoin's gone down and it hasn't really
become the safe haven that people are expecting to be.
Do the exact opposite of Michael Saylor
Joining me today on Honest Money Show is
Jason Pizzino. Jason is a macro and swing
trader and I'm very pleased to have him on
the show today to talk about the 18-year
cycle. Welcome on the show. Thank you so
much, Anja. Great to be here. So let's
kick right off by like, I've heard this
theory and I'm very curious to learn a
little bit more about it. So what is the
18-year cycle? Yeah, we'll talk about it
in relation to say Bitcoin as well,
because it's probably most relevant for
your audience. But as simply as it is, 14
years up, four years down in US real
estate and the economy. And so Australia
typically follows suit because, well, the
US has the most money. And when global
trade is happening, I mean, everything
else is bumbling along, bubbling along.
And then once things turn down, pretty
much most places turn down. Now, that's
the broad overview of the 18-year cycle,
roughly 14 years up, four years down. So
where are we at in the cycle right now?
And is Australia lagging behind the US or
is it pretty synchronized? Yeah, it's
right at the peak now, 2026. I know you
mentioned just before we jumped on that
you had a few viewers who had seen my work
since 2019. And I've been talking about
the cycle heading up. So we've been going
up and up and up and up and up. We're
right at that point now in 2026, where US
real estate and the economy seems to be
around a topping pattern. So that's where
we're at now. That doesn't mean that the
stock market tops this year. And it
doesn't mean that everything crashes this
year either, because tops are a process.
It takes time. And so I think that's going
to happen later this decade. We're right
around that top point where most of the
money is in. We've still got to get the
rest of that credit and the rest of that
money into the system. Everyone thinks
it's all fine. And then we start to roll
over and the catalysts come through, like
what happened in the GFC in 2008. Yeah.
And we will talk a lot more about it
because I'm very curious to learn more.
And I've got a lot of questions for you
here. But I want to start with something
that I've heard on the streets. So word on
the streets is that going back a few years
ago, you invested something like $10,000
or $20,000 and turned it into $1 million.
Do you want to tell us about that? Yeah,
it's similar to that. It was around $20
,000, $26,000 or thereabouts. That was
from my retirement fund. So if you've got
your Aussie viewers, it's an SMSF. So we
can trade that ourselves. And that's where
I went degenerate into Bitcoin. It was
mostly Bitcoin and ETH. And I think over
the years, yeah, it basically came down
just to Bitcoin. But those two, I ran it
up to about $400,000 or $500,000 in the
2021 cycle. Watched most of it come back
down and then got a little bit smarter the
next time around. Watch it run up to, I
think it was something like $600,000 or
$700,000, maybe closer to $800,000,
somewhere around there in the last cycle
we just had. And so my total portfolio hit
around $1 million, but the gains just from
Bitcoin and ETH were around that, I don't
know, $600,000, $700,000. And since then,
I've also traded silver and I've been
sharing that with my members. So I think I
did over $100,000 in that one as well. So
that's how the portfolio has continued to
increase to that $1 million point. Yeah.
Okay. Interesting. Interesting. So what do
you actually think is going to happen with
property and Bitcoin in Australia over the
coming years with this cycle? I think
it'll turn down. Most of the cities will
come down. I think places like Melbourne
and Victoria, they've been hit relatively
hard for the last several years. And they
may not shoot up straight away, but I
don't think they're going to be hit as
hard. At least the bottom end won't be hit
as hard in the downturn compared to places
like Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide, which
have gone gangbusters, you know, 200,
300%, depending on where you start that
point from. So they've done heaps. I've
literally just today, I've done posts
about Perth on Instagram and people are
going absolutely mental about Perth's
never coming down. There's too much
demand, so and so. So when I hear all that
sort of frothiness, it's probably a great
sign that we're getting very close to the
top, if not already there. The same thing
happened with Bitcoin at the top. If you
say the opposite to the crowd, they hate
you. The same thing happened with silver
in January of 2026 this year. It's just
like the same signs continue to show over
and over again. So basically a long answer
to your property question. I think
Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth will probably
come down. Sydney, Melbourne will usually
start to head up once we turn the bottom.
Yeah. Okay. I mean, that's super
interesting. Like, I'm just really curious
to know how you think overall the next
decade will pan out for like all different
asset classes, including like metals, real
estate, Bitcoin....
Yeah, it's a tough one
because you're looking so far out. And
typically, you know, I've watched a ton of
interviews like you have as well. I'm sure
the other viewers have watched it too,
where you watch like people who are just
only into gold and silver and others who
are just into Bitcoin and others who are
into real estate. And they'll always tell
us, well, gold and silver can't go down
because the lack of supply. And, you know,
the silver thing lately was China needs it
and AI needs silver. And there's so much
demand for it. Yet silver was down, what,
50 something percent to those lows. So
you're asking about the next decade. I
guess I'm trying to build it up that it's
pretty difficult, but I think we've
already seen these blow off tops. We may
see another run. But when you see these
really big moves, you need a long time to
accumulate before that next move can
happen. So I don't know, which one do you
want to start with? You've got a few
there. Bitcoin. I think I... Bitcoin? Yes.
Bitcoin, that's probably what people will
get angry about, but it is what it is. I
think this site, like if we go into
another bull market with Bitcoin now, I
think we're somewhere around the bottom
between sort of 40 and 60 grand. And we
start to head up. I don't think there is
enough time left in the credit cycle, the
business cycle, the economic cycle, very,
very similar things to run another three
years up for Bitcoin. You know, typically
we get the three years up, one year down.
That's what everyone, I guess, looks at it
in terms of a four-year cycle. Is that
what your definition of a four-year cycle
would be? Yeah. I mean, and it's been
holding up pretty well. Like it still is,
even though some people are saying that
there's no such thing as a four-year
cycle. I can still see it. But people have
different definitions of a four-year. It's
like for some, a four-year cycle has to go
to a new all-time high, you know, in that
bull market. It has, hasn't it? Like, I
mean, if we look back at every four-year
cycle, there was an all-time high. And
yes, with this last one, it was
particularly disappointing because
everyone thought we would at least be over
150. And I think we hit like 126. This is
in USD. I forget what the Australian is,
like 188 or something like that. Just talk
USD. Yeah. Everyone could do the
conversion. Yeah. Yeah. So I, I just
wonder what this kind of, what can we
expect over the next three to four years
in Bitcoin? All right. You said something
interesting because it was disappointing
in this cycle. And in 2021, it was also
slightly disappointing for us that have
been in to the market in 2017. And I think
that disappointment has continued to play
out in each of the cycles. I don't know if
we're at max disappointment for a bull
market in Bitcoin yet. Meaning like, you
know, could we get any more disappointed?
Some would say no. But I think the most
disappointing bull market we could see is
either like a sweep of the high, maybe
100, you know, just above 126 grand or a
lower high, 100, 110, whatever it is,
whatever it is, lower high. Right. I think
that's going to be max disappointment. And
then it will fade from that point. So
people might not even refer to that as a
bull market. And then they'll start to
think the four year cycle is dead. And,
you know, Bitcoin is never coming back. It
never made a new, it didn't make a new all
time high this time. And so a lot of that
fear and disappointment will build into
it, which will lead to a lower low, which
is probably the best time over the coming
five or so years to be getting that low.
Because right now, I think it's just been
way too easy. And, you know, you've done
heaps of interviews with Bitcoin maxis and
permabulls and people who just buy it
nonstop. They think it's the only thing
that's going to save us from the US dollar
and all this sort of nonsense. I think
they've been saying it's way too easy
where you just buy Bitcoin and you're
going to be rich. You know, that sort of
mentality was 2017, 2018. And since then,
I think if you got in after 2021, it's I
don't know if it's going to come true for
you probably in the next five or so years.
But maybe in 10 or 20 years, it could be
all right. I'm not saying it's over
forever. But, yeah, I just think it's been
maxed out with how simple people believe
investing is where you just buy it and
it'll go up forever. Yeah, I mean, for me,
like Bitcoin is still a wild card. And as
much as I'm open to like understanding
this 18 year cycle, there's a part of me
that always thinks as well. It's like,
well, we've seen the 18 year cycle play
out with properties and, you know, real
estate and metals maybe. But like Bitcoin
hasn't had that. It hasn't gone through
that yet. So we don't really have anything
to base it off, do we? Correct. Yeah, we
don't have anything to base it off. The
main thing that we will that I'm basing it
off is what happens in the downturn of an
18 year cycle is that credit contracts. So
there's less money in the system,
Australia, US, wherever. We've seen it.
We're already seeing an interest rates
rising, which means credits coming out of
the system. If there's less credit in the
system, there's less money to be
speculating or gambling, speculating on
things. Therefore, it's probably unlikely
we're going to see the same sort of
increases in prices, especially for
riskier assets like Bitcoin and cryptos.
So until that turns back up in the 18 year
cycle, then I don't think there's going to
be enough speculation to get Bitcoin over,
I don't know, 200 grand, 300 grand,
whatever it is. Quick one for the Aussies
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stacking stats today. I'm super curious
because, okay, so I don't know if you've
seen that particular report that BlackRock
has done in terms of like geopolitical
shocks and the 60 day price change on
things like the S&P 500 versus gold versus
Bitcoin. And Bitcoin tends to have the
least sensitivity to anything that's
happening that's like turbulent in the
market. So even like, you know, assuming
that credit contraction goes ahead. Won't
Bitcoin hypothetically be the most
resilient to it? I don't know. It could
be. Yeah. The problem is it's like you've
got to take one position. You're either in
it or you're not. Others might short it.
But if you think it's going to be then
like most resilient to it, then you just
keep your Bitcoin or maybe you'll buy
more. But from what I've seen over the
last couple of, well, two major wars,
right? We had the Iran one this year and
we had Russia, Ukraine in 2022. Each of
those occasions, Bitcoin's gone down. And
it hasn't really become the safe haven
that people are expecting it to be.
There's been a significant time, I
remember, in the last three or four years
where Bitcoin did or was that sort of a
bit more safer haven. But it was just also
in the timing of the cycle going up. And
that was the Silicon Valley bank
collapses, the regional bank collapses in
March 2023. So lots of fear, extreme
recession calls. Everyone was on the side
of recession and collapse. Bitcoin sprung
up. So unless I see that sort of behavior
from Bitcoin, then I just I wouldn't think
it's going to be that safe haven. Yeah.
Which kind of leads into my next question
that I'm really curious to know from you.
It's like, are there particular indicators
that you will look at in terms of every
time I do that little thing pops up. You
can do these ones too and it does it.
Yeah. Are there particular indicators that
you're looking at that will kind of, for
the lack of a better word, like prove or
disprove whether the 18 year cycle is a
Bitcoin thing as well? Do you know what? I
didn't word that the best, but you know
what I mean? Yeah. Like if Bitcoin falls
within the framework of the 18 year cycle.
What makes it and what breaks it? What
like are kind of the key indicators on
both sides? I guess I just have to go back
to, I've got a lot of different indicators
I watch. A few just really simple ones
where I just track macro outlook, like a
swing indicator or a 50%, which you'd have
to get a little bit more technical on the
chart. It's not that difficult. But if we
just look at it with the framework of the
18 year cycle, which relates a lot to the
business cycle and credit, then if
credit's contracting and Bitcoin is also
contracting, generally speaking, over the
long term, then I wouldn't see any reason
for it to not fit within the same
framework of risky assets performing the
way normal risky assets perform in a
downturn. Which is unlikely to be
speculated on. Yeah. If they did the
opposite, then you go, all right, maybe
something different is here. But so far we
haven't seen that. And I would need to see
it break the high convincingly, like the
126 grand, while the rest of the market is
going down. While, say, the S&P 500 is
collapsing whenever that occurs, the
NASDAQ's going down. We need to see that
happen at the same time. Stocks going
down, Bitcoin going up in a big way, not
just like the odd day here and there.
Yeah. Yeah. Okay. That makes sense. Yeah.
So I'm curious then, like if we do go into
a bit of a global stagnation over the next
few years, is there anything you think
will perform well? Cash. Cash. Cash always
performs well. In a downturn, cash always
performs well. And usually at the tops of
the market, we'll hear the most around
cash is trash. We heard that in 2021 at
the top, early 22. It was all the news
around Ray Dalio, again, talking his talk
of his 250-year cycle and China overtaking
and cash is trash and yada, yada. But
yeah, you just have to look at the data.
You don't have to believe me, but you can
look at the data or anyone that's
listening and just go, well, in these
downturns, whenever the stock market's
down 30% to 50%, what's better? Cash.
Cash. When the stock market turned down in
2008, silver and gold also went down and
went down pretty hard. But they ran up for
a little while while the stock market was
going down. But between March and October,
gold, I think, fell 20% or 30% and silver
did something similar around, I think it
was a 60% fall from top to bottom as well.
So they did come back into their highs of
2011, but during those crashes, gold fell,
silver fell, housing was obviously down,
stock markets were down, oil eventually
found a top sometime in 2008. That was
doing a little better. It's mostly cash.
You could get into and find that one thing
that did it last time. Is it going to do
it this time? I don't know. So just keep
things simple and go cash, which is pretty
boring. Investing should be boring. Yeah.
Well, that was kind of going to be one of
the questions I had towards the end. If
someone is sitting on a lot of cash right
now, are they just better off holding it
or I don't know? Yeah. It's the way I look
at investing. I just look for
opportunities that seem to be way out of
the public eye, like silver was a few
years back. And then that's the
accumulation period. Right now, it seems
like everything is around highs or on the
way down and have not got to that
accumulation period. So the opportunities
mostly seem to be done and people are just
trying to run to that next thing that's
going to give them that opportunity.
That's usually not a great long-term
investment strategy. And like Warren
Buffett says, the markets are a tool to
transfer money from the impatient to the
patient. We like to like reference Warren
Buffett's quotes in these times, well,
when it suits us, but in the other times,
everyone just wants to rush to the next
thing, you know? Yeah. Yeah. No, that
makes sense. So do you have any like price
predictions in terms of if there is a
cycle top, what that might be for Bitcoin?
I have to wait and see what the low is
first, because then I can do my
projections from that point with previous
reference ranges of prices. So look,
without having that low in, I'd probably
just look towards the previous support
levels before Bitcoin broke down. So what,
you're somewhere, you just start from the
lows, somewhere around that 80 to 85, and
then up towards the swing top, which was
around 93 to 98,000. And then back towards
the highs around 116 to 126. So they're
not like amazing price projections, but
I'm keeping it conservative considering
the stage of the cycle we're in. And
again, I just don't have that extra data
there, but it doesn't mean that I would
sell at those points. I'll just look to
see how the market responds to it. If it
shoots through it on good volume, meaning
there's heaps of buying activity, then
just keep letting it ride. No need to cut
it short. Yeah. So, okay, well, this might
be an easy one to answer because we're a
lot closer to it, but do you have a
prediction for the cycle low? Yeah, my
conservative cycle low is between 43 and
58. So, you know, it's hit 57 now. It's at
that point. But I don't think we're at the
low yet. I think there's possibly a little
more. I mean, yeah, I was just kind of
like hoping we stay in the 50s because
there was two moments in this bear market.
But I was like the first time it dipped to
around 80, I was like, okay, okay, I'm
good, I'm good. And then it dipped to like
58. I was like, okay, let's go back up
now. It's not that far off. And maybe 57
is the low. Like if we start to rally from
here over the next couple of months, like
July typically does, and then correct into
September, October, it may form a higher
low. Like it may just only drop to 60 or
62. So we just need to see a little bit
more, but it's not that far off. So if
people want a DCA, okay, as long as you're
happy between 40 and 60 grand, what's the
difference? Need a way to sign, verify,
and secure your Bitcoin?
Yeah, I mean, it would be nice if it did
drop to like low 50s, high 40s. Like I
would definitely be buying. Yeah. As long
as you're not buying the tops. I've done
that as well. So I've definitely. We've
all done it. We've all done it. Yeah. I've
definitely, I haven't, I haven't panicked
sold, but yeah, this being my first bear
market, it is a bit nerve wracking. And
yeah, I guess that uncertainty around what
the next four years will look like will be
really interesting. Yeah, like
I'm hearing all these different
theories and schools of thought. And, you know
where you been in two years, you kind of realise
a lot of it is noise, so you're just try to filter
through where the signal is
it's been really, really challenging because
on Twitter especially you notice, a lots of people
like to give, am,
like just throw away a price predction
and then, even the broken hockeys, and
so they circle back I was right
Yeah. I can play that game
too. Exactly. Yeah. But it's interesting.
Do you, where has the 18 year cycle been
wrong? If, if, if at all. There was a
period in 1930s and early 1940s, so nearly
a hundred years ago, that it basically was
on, on hold or on pause because the world
was going through a world war. And there
was just no speculate or not that much
speculation on real estate because the
world was preoccupied with war. Like
almost all of the major countries went to
war. It started with Japan and China in
1937, but you know, as Australians, we
know it from 1939 until 1945. Whereas, you
know, I learned recently Americans see it
as 1941 as the second world war, because
that's when they got involved. So everyone
has a different year for when the second
world war started. But to your point,
instead of a history lesson, that was a
period where it was slower and it just
basically went sideways after the
correction. There was also the, the great
depression was happening at the same time
that we're going into second world war. So
pretty massive global events that had no
speculation. The other time where it was
still, the cycle is still there. It just
doesn't look the same, which is typical.
Like that's the way investing is. You have
rhymes, but nothing repeats exactly. It
was around the 60s and 70s where we had
that very, very high inflation. So
nominal, you know, you know, like nominal
and real prices. Nominal is basically the
ticket price that we see. Real estate
prices were roughly the same. I think in
Australia, they even went up through the
70s when the cycle was on its way down.
But in real values, which is, you know,
inflation adjusted, prices were actually
going down. So that's part of the cycle in
a high inflation environment. It's still
there. You're not seeing that same sort of
growth, but it's kind of disguised. It's
masked by the high inflation. So you've
got to look at the nominal and the real
values. And you mentioned history. Like,
is there anything that particularly sort
of inspired you to go down this path? Like
what is it that you liked reading and
learning about to make you to inform your
thinking on this? Yeah. Good question.
Because it's like, how did you start with
it? 2010 is when I started trading. 2012
is when I found the 18-year cycle. And
through that period, it was basically the
low of the previous, well, the current
real estate cycle that we're in. And there
was a lot of confusion, a lot of noise. I
think, why did I want to find it? It was,
oh, because I was going to property
seminars. And at this time in 2010,
America had been smashed. And I don't know
if you remember that era, you know, 2009,
2010, 11. No? Vaguely paid attention.
Vaguely paid attention. Americans were
coming to Australia and doing property
seminars telling us to buy real estate in
the US. But properties were so cheap. But
they did amazingly well because people
were buying real estate at $20,000 a
house, $30,000 a condo. It was so insanely
cheap. But for us, we're like, how is this
possible? Because we've never seen
properties at $30,000 in our lifetimes.
It's insane. So it just seemed too hard to
believe. But all they were saying is how
to buy. So my point was, when do I know
when to sell? And that's when I went on
that journey to find out about cycles and
when to sell. I got caught up in some
other cycles back then. 2011, 12, 13, we
had a mining boom. I don't know if you
remember that. So I was looking at real
estate in the mining sectors and mining
towns and they were massive boom and bust
like altcoins. A couple of years ago, they
were $100,000 for a house. Then they ran
to $700,000, $800,000 and then they
collapsed 80%. It's impossible to think of
it like that when you think of Sydney,
Melbourne, Brisbane. But yeah, mining
towns have done that and they'll probably
do it again. So that's where I started
getting into this whole history lesson of,
well, how do you know? Surely someone
knows when the right time to buy is and
the right time to sell is. Yeah. I do
remember the mining boom because I'm from
WA. So I'm a Perth girl and I just
remember just wondering what is going on
with these towns up north. Karratha and
all that. Yeah, Port Hedland. Yeah. Port
Hedland, that's right. Yeah. Yeah. And the
banks were insane back then. That was, I
remember people paying two grand a week.
But, you know, the companies are paying
then all of a sudden the company stopped
paying. And everyone went broke. They had
to dump their houses back to the bank.
Yeah. Like I've only really started paying
attention to money and investing and
things like that since COVID. So I
obviously lived through the GFC but I
don't remember it very vividly. I just
remember people, you know, with mining
jobs, losing jobs and then having this
like huge mortgage. So they had to sell
one of the houses. But I don't remember
people just broadly being as affected as
they are right now. So we're not in a
technical recession but it kind of feels
like we are. And do you think Australia
will get to a recession? I guess. Like can
we trade it? We kind of can against the
stock market. So I don't really like keep
myself up trying to think of whether we'll
get to a recession or not because I'm just
interested in the markets and the charts.
But it seems like we will when banking
turns down because banking makes up the
majority of our stock market. And then for
the GDP, you know, we know it's finance.
We know it's mining. We know it's
education. So if mining turns down or
commodity prices turn down, then what are
we going to do about our GDP? You know,
it's just it'll go with it. Not your keys,
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Well, before we wrap up, I also wanted to
ask you. So obviously, you know, when you
got into Bitcoin, you also mentioned that
you bought Ethereum. Are you now like just
Bitcoin or are you still open to the old
coin space? Right. I'll be open to the old
coin space, but primarily Bitcoin just to
keep things simple because you can make
the trade. You make the gain. You get out.
Hopefully, you make the gain, right? I
think people get caught up because they're
not sure which one they need to buy to
make the gain. And it's like if you just
study something, one thing or technical
analysis on something, you should be able
to at least improve your success rate if
you take out the noise and focus on one
thing. So, yeah, not that I'm against
others, but I don't know, Bitcoin seemed
to be the one that I've done pretty well
at. Ethereum's done relatively well. And
then the others, typically, I found they
just sort of move a bit too fast for me.
Maybe I'm getting old. I don't know. And
I'm in it for a bit longer. Yeah. Well,
would you say overall that Bitcoin is more
predictable? As weird as that sounds. But
it's almost, I don't know, I have this
impression of it that at least I kind of
feel like I can get to understand it. I
don't have to be an insider to know what's
happening with it. Yeah. I think from the
perspective of the emotions and sentiment,
because it's the main one and you can kind
of draw on what's happening in regards to
that sentiment. But if you're in the
ecosystem of Solana, I guess, and you
could see what's going on and what's been
talked about, then maybe you could catch
on to that. And Solana could be your token
or XRP or ETH or something that you want
to trade. So if you can get a grasp of
that sentiment, then that works. It was
like Solana through January, I think it
was January 2025 when Trump was
inaugurated. Solana just ran up that one
day on inauguration. Went from like 200
something to nearly 300 bucks and then
straight back down. And I'm like, I'm out.
It's like, I think that's it. I think all
the buying action has taken place and it's
now been dumped. So that's the kind of
connection with your asset that I think
you need to have, but don't marry it. You
marry it, you're in trouble. This is the
same for Bitcoin. I feel like I'm a little
bit married. To be decided. To be decided.
But I definitely haven't married it. After
losing cycles through 2017 into 2018, just
from going from almost nothing to being
rich and then down again, then up again,
I'm like, I don't want that type of swing.
I'd rather take it out and put it into
something tangible. Do the exact opposite
of Michael Saylor. Yeah, it's interesting.
He's receiving a really hard time now. Do
you have any thoughts on his products like
Stretch and all of that? Are you
interested in that at all? You're just
like, it's, yeah. No. When you go through
all the cycles and you see all these
guarantees, I've never seen a guarantee
work forever. And the guarantee is that
it'll give you the yield, 11.5, sometimes
12, sometimes 13. But the product that
you're holding, I mean, maybe that loses
value of 10 to 12%. Like, what's the
point? I just don't, I don't like things
that are guaranteed. Yeah, it's a bit of a
red flag energy. But for someone who's
just like, I'm a DCA or I'm a saver and
I'm just trying to increase my Bitcoin
holdings and not worry too much about the
price. Like, obviously it does impact me
because, you know, it goes up and then you
go through a bear market and your net
worth halves. But like, is there any merit
for retail investors who are not overly
savvy and don't want to, you know, trade
on a frequent basis doing like a DC, like
a more aggressive DCA in during a bear
market and a DCA out during a bull market?
Is there merit? Yeah, I think, I
definitely think there's a good merit in that
It has..
I, I 100% think there is a good merit in it.
It's the problem is execution for most
people because they'll do it for a little
bit and then get sick of it because
they'll think that there's a better
opportunity out there. Only to find, maybe
if they come back years later, which most
don't, if they backtest what they had
originally stuck to or some good plan that
they have, they may have done better than
trying to chase everything. And that's
pretty much been the story of every single
cycle. People start on Bitcoin, they leave
it, they run to something else, they want
better gains and then they screw it up and
they go, I should have just stayed with
Bitcoin, which is very similar to what
you're saying with this DCA process. It's
just another strategy. It's like, I'll
just stay with Bitcoin. I'll load up more
when it's below the 200 week moving
average. I'll load up less when it's above
the, I don't know, 50 week moving average.
And I'll get out when there's extreme
hype. I'll take something off the table,
10%, 15%. And then I'll put it back in at
some lows. That's about it. Yeah. I am
really starting to like the 200, sorry,
200 is a week. Yeah. 200 week moving
average. Yeah. The more I kind of can zoom
out and smooth things out, I feel like the
better I can manage my own emotions around
it. Yeah. That's just where I'm at. It'll
be interesting to see how my own
perspective and perception changes when
the bull market resumes. Yeah. Whenever
there's some significant move higher. I
think we're getting to that point. I think
we'll see it at least the start of it this
year, if we haven't already begun to see
that transition from the bear to the bull.
Hmm. I'm conscious of time because I know
you've got another meeting, but I'm just
super curious to know, like, obviously, as
I mentioned before, the last bull market
was quite disappointing for a lot of
investors or holders, if you will. And do
you think that had anything to do with the
18-year cycle or was it other macro things
that played a role in that? Like, I don't
know, AI stocks, for example. I guess
we'll never really know because it's like
we'd have to interview all the people who
were saying they were going to buy that
didn't buy. And then the people who
bought, why didn't you put more in? Like,
I don't think we'll ever really know. But
I think it's got something to do with a
bit more – sorry, something to do with
credit and that credit was – the market
was forecasting there wasn't going to be
as much credit. Although we've seen a
little bit more money printing, the fear
of interest rates increasing may have got
to things. And then we also saw the NASDAQ
top, I believe it was a similar time to
Bitcoin, whereas the S&P went slightly
higher. So tech has been having a pullback
for a good part of a year. The NASDAQ's
been running a bit higher, but if you look
at the individual stocks, the MAG7, some
of those haven't had highs for six months,
12 months. So there's something in that
too, credit and tech. Yeah. Appetite's
been lost. Yeah. Okay. Well, this has been
a very insightful talk. Thank you so much
for coming on. Let me know if you have any
final words that you'd like to share with
my audience. I'll obviously put all the
links in the show notes where they can
find you on Twitter and your website. So,
yeah, let me know. Look, final thoughts.
Even if you don't agree with anything I've
said, just keep an open mind. I don't
think there's any point in being perma or
anything one way or the other, depending
on what your goals are at the end of the
world – end of the day, I should say. So,
yeah. Just keep an open mind. Love the
Freudian slip, end of the world. All
right. Thanks, Jason. Thank you. Cheers Anja.
Nummer 1-322-322. Have a great case. See