The State of Aviation: Hiring Trends and Industry Insights

The Pilot to Pilot Podcast dives deep into the current state of the aviation industry, with host Justin Seams engaging in a thorough discussion with Dr. Jim Higgins, a professor of aviation. The conversation begins with a candid update on the challenges faced by the podcast team, including illness and scheduling difficulties, setting a relatable tone for listeners. As they transition into the heart of the episode, Justin and Jim address the evolving landscape of pilot hiring, particularly focusing on regional airlines. Jim shares insights into how hiring practices have shifted, highlighting a trend towards stricter minimum requirements and the competitive nature of the current pilot market. He emphasizes the importance of building a robust resume and the need for aspiring pilots to remain adaptable in a fluctuating job market.

Moreover, the episode touches on the implications of supply chain issues with major manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus, which have led to a slowdown in aircraft availability and consequently affected hiring rates. Jim elaborates on how these factors interplay with broader market dynamics, including the economic pressures that have historically shaped pilot recruitment and retention strategies. They reflect on how the pandemic has altered perceptions and expectations within the aviation community, urging listeners to maintain perspective and resilience as they navigate their career paths in this unpredictable environment.

As the conversation unfolds, the duo also explores the importance of mental health and support systems for pilots, particularly in light of recent alarming incidents within the industry. Jim introduces the HIMSS program, a critical resource for pilots facing substance abuse issues, reiterating the necessity for individuals to seek help proactively. This segment serves not only as a cautionary tale but also as a beacon of hope, illustrating that recovery and successful reintegration into the profession are possible with the right support. The episode wraps up with a call to action for listeners to engage with the podcast and share their experiences, fostering a sense of community among aviation enthusiasts and professionals alike.

What is Pilot to Pilot?

Pilot to Pilot is the podcast for anyone who flies — or dreams about it. Host Justin Siems sits down with airline captains, bush pilots, CFIs, and everyone in between for honest conversations about the path to the cockpit, the grind of the career, and the love of flying that keeps us coming back. Whether you're a student pilot chasing your first solo or a captain with 20,000 hours, there's a seat for you here. New episodes weekly.

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experience.

Jim Higgins, professor of
Aviation at the.

University of North Dakota AV
Nation what is going on?

And welcome back to the Pilot
to Pilot podcast.

My name is Justin Seams and I
am your host.

I do apologize that there was
not a podcast last week and this

is coming out a little bit
later this week.

As you can tell my voice, I'm
a little bit under the weather right

now.

Since I recorded this, the
stomach bug went through the house.

It's been a rough two weeks
over here at our household, but nonetheless

we are getting out a brand new
state of the industry.

Hopefully today as I'm
recording this on Tuesday it will

be posted but maybe on Wednesday.

These episodes are always a favorite.

I get so many emails, DM's
responses like hey, when's the next

state of the industry?

When's the next state of the industry?

Well today is the day and
without any further ado, here is

State of the industry with Dr.

Jim Higgins.

Jim, what's going on man?

Welcome back to the Pilot the
Pilot podcast.

Justin, good to see you.

Always good to be here.

First episode of 2025.

Well I should say first state
of the industry of 2025.

It's just, it's still weird
saying 2025.

I say it every year.

I'm really glad I'm not in
like ninth grade or sixth grade anymore.

We have to write the date at
the top of your paper and it seems

to take you to like March
where you actually get the date right.

I used to always have to
scratch through it.

But anyways, no one cares
about that.

But if you're young you're
probably like yeah, that does suck.

Absolutely and it gets worse
as you get older, Justin.

Oh, don't tell me that.

I do agree, because it does
get worse as you get older.

We are here to talk about the industry.

We're here to talk about aviation.

If this is your, you know, if
you just got Into Aviation in 2025,

this is your New Year's resolution.

And you're like, oh, what's this?

Let me click on that.

There's a ton of episodes for
you to listen to, all the way back

to Covid.

And you can kind of see what
was happening almost real time.

And then how we.

We're changing our tune and
how we're like, I don't know what's

gonna happen.

And I didn't even work for the
airlines then.

I was like, I'm never gonna be
an airline pilot.

And then, hey, guess what?

I'm an airline pilot now.

So I saw the light as I'm
staring into three really bright

lights right now.

They.

They spoke to me and it made me.

They.

They told me there was an
easier way to make a living, which

I am on short call.

And that does suck.

So there is caveats to it.

But it will get better.

It will get better.

I believe everyone when they
say that.

And the hiring will help,
which everything.

We're going to get involved
when we talk about, and we are going

to make sure we touch in every
single aspect of the industry that

we can in 45 or so minutes.

And if we don't touch on a
question you want, there is always

the window that you can ask on
the website.

Spot HQ.com you click on the
state of the industry button, you

scroll down, there's a
question box.

If you have angry comments,
just type Jim's name in there and

that way we can send them to him.

Only good things for.

No, I'm just kidding.

But we are here to talk about
the industry.

We are here to talk about
what's going on.

There is a lot going on.

For one, we're going to touch
on really quick or maybe long, I

don't know.

But hiring has picked up at
certain airlines.

There was a hiring freeze for
American, United, Delta.

I believe that they were hiring.

I think United stopped in the
summer when the FAA was coming down

on them for a while.

But they have started hiring up.

I don't know about Southwest.

I haven't heard if they are
hiring or not.

I know they had a freeze for a
little bit as well.

But on American side, hiring
has begun.

Um, how much they hire, I'm
guessing is solely dependent on Boeing

and Airbus and the airplanes
that they can actually produce for

them.

You might have more into that
for us, but what are your thoughts

on, you know, we can say like
quarter one through quarter four

or do the whole year of what
you think hiring is going to look

like?

Yeah, the great question, all,
all those airlines you mentioned

are planning on hiring in 2025.

The question is to what extent
that's going to be the, that's going

to be the question.

We certainly know based on the
available information today, it's

not going to be as robust as
it has been in the last few years,

but historically speaking,
it's still going to be very, very

good.

There'll be some good
opportunities, but the dynamic has

changed a little bit.

And so there's a few things
that go along with that.

One of the things is for the
pilots out there, the competitive

minimums to get hired at an
American, Southwest, United, Delta,

et cetera, that's going to increase.

So you're going to start
seeing things.

So I'm sure you are.

I've been talking to some
pilots that have, you know, some

pretty good credentials that,
you know, two years ago they would

have certainly opened the door
at a lot of those airlines.

And now, you know, they're not
the doors not shutting on them, but

they're just not getting
called as quickly.

Right.

So, so that's going to be one
thing I think people are going to

notice.

Don't panic.

You know, especially if you're
just getting into the end of the

career.

You know, you have to look at
this over a longer period of time.

And historically speaking,
we're still in a much better spot

than say post 911 or during
the Great Recession 2008, 2009, where

we had some, just horrible,
lots of people on furlough and you

know, no real movement at any
of the airlines.

We're just in a little bit of
a, of a stutter step now.

And so, so just keep your eye
focused on, you know, what it is

you want to do and you'll get
through it and just keep building

your, building your resume to
where you need to go.

As far as what's causing it, I
would say it's about 90% on supply

chain, maybe even more.

And specifically Boeing and Airbus.

And Boeing, sadly, we all know
the Boeing story, but, but the strike

that occurred.

Plus we're back to those silly
Covid era supply chain, supply chain

issues.

You know, they're not as bad,
but there's still some supply chain

issues upstream for them and
they're in a Big hole.

And they're just going to dig
out, you know, where they were supposed

to produce at least one or two
787 every month.

That's, you know, they might,
they might get to that by the end

of this year.

We're not sure they were
supposed to produce, I don't know,

I can't remember the numbers,
but 5 to 10, 7, 37s every month,

they'll be lucky to be at, you
know, half that by the end of the

year.

So they're in a, they're in a
big hole.

And that's absolutely causing
this stagnation.

There's just no doubt about it.

And it's not for a lack of
passenger demand or even general

economic conditions, because
that's still there.

And so, yeah, I, you know, so
we're going to have to see how that

goes.

I mean, I think we're going
have to give Boeing a pretty good

year before they work things out.

Airbus, the engine issues, the
GE and all the other stuff that does

seem to be working its way out
a little more quickly.

They haven't had, you know,
the labor issues and some of the

other things we've seen at Boeing.

So, you know, that I noticed
that the neos are getting delivered

a little faster now than they,
than they were before.

And, you know, Boeing is not
caught up to that.

So it'll gradually lift.

The fundamentals are still
there based on all the retirements

that are happening in the industry.

You know, barring something
cataclysmic like another Covid or,

you know, a world war or
something like that, the next few

years will be fine.

It'll just go a little slower
and you'll see people that have to

be a little more competitive
to get hired initially.

Which is interesting because,
I mean, I was reading the forums

a couple of the other day for
the airline I'm on.

I'm just kind of like trying
to keep track, mainly because I want

to know when they're going to
start, when they're going to hire,

what classes they're going to
go to, and how my seniority will

improve and how my schedule
will improve.

But I was just looking at
people listing their requirements,

and a lot of people have been
saying that they really are into

121 time again right now,
which I had zero of a year ago, and

I was getting hired and I got
called immediately and I was put

straight into class.

But it's just funny how, you
know, there's just so many different

things that maybe they're,
they're, they don't care about 121

time as much and they're like,
oh, 135 guys are cool or all right,

now we need that college
degree or now we need this.

And things just ebb and flow.

And as they need more pilots,
you know, they don't have to be.

Or as the pilot market was
stretched out with the last two years

where everyone was hiring like
crazy, you know, it just seemed like

everyone was trying to just
fill the numbers that they had.

Now they were still getting
qualified pilots.

So I'm not saying that they weren't.

You can still be very
qualified at 1500 hours versus 3500

hours or no 121 time versus a
ton of 121 time.

But it's just really
interesting to see how the trends

change and then really
interesting to see how airlines can

change and what they decide
they want or what the industry itself

kind of decides that they
want, because it seems like they

would just the market kind of
dictates what the airlines can hire.

You know, if there's a lot of
pilots out there, they push the minimums

up.

And now we're going to hire
3000 hour pilots with 121 pic time.

If the market, if everyone's
trying to hire, they're like, all

right, well, now we just need
to try to get all the best pilots

that we can, no matter what
they are.

Who fits our culture, who fits
being on a long layover with in Mexico

City for 25 hours, you know,
that's what I just did.

So a lot of stuff to look at
like that.

Absolutely.

And there's no doubt that the
economic concept of supply and demand,

you know, inelasticity,
elasticity, all the things we learned

about and macroeconomics are
alive and well when it comes to that.

That being said, as someone
who has studied the hiring algorithms

at a lot of the major airlines
over the last several years, I will

tell you, the airlines, you
know, sometimes it doesn't seem like

that it's like, what's the
magic combination of things?

I need what, you know, what do
I need to put in there?

So, so the first part,
everyone has a different path they

can take to an airline.

And you know, for instance,
you could, as, you know, you can

come through a corporate
avenue and get there.

Some people can go right
through a region, you know, probably

the prototypical flight
instructor, regional legacy, that's

probably, you know, the tried
and true.

But there's a lot of other
paths as well, as we all know.

So what are they looking for?

In these algorithms, airlines
have become much more data driven

in the last 10 to 15 years.

What that basically means is,
is every person that they hire leaves

a data trail.

So they'll look and they'll
see, okay, where this person come

from, what was their
background, you know, where do they

get their training?

What was their training like?

What was their part?

Was at 61, was at 141, was 142.

How many checkride failures do
they have?

Did they, how they do it?

If they came from a low cost
carrier, how did that go?

And they do use pretty complex algorithms.

I've actually talked to some
of the people in particular at Delta

that have put these algorithms
together and, you know, they, believe

it or not, they'll go down to
like what college you went to, you

know, what regional you went to.

And so you build this algorithm.

And this algorithm is
ultimately meant to predict if you're

going to successfully get to
training in the minimum amount of

time.

Successfully get through IOE
in the minimum amount of time.

Yeah.

And they've gotten pretty
good, good at it.

And it upset that it is happening.

Oh, you all right?

I might have lost you.

I think if that happens, just
keep talking until you finish your

point and then we'll try to
patch it together.

But yeah, got it.

That was it.

Cool.

All right.

I don't, I didn't hear the
last part you said.

So I did.

So I just heard you say algorithms.

And Delta, okay, the
algorithms are deadly accurate.

Pilots get pretty upset about
this because nobody likes to be reduced

to a set of numbers on a spreadsheet.

And how well you're going to do.

You know, there's certainly a
lot of examples out there of people

that have overcome very
difficult backgrounds.

You know, you and I have
friends that, you know, the dreaded

dui, Right.

Which of course we always want
to avoid.

For me, it's not the least of
which is the fact that it's dangerous

to operate that way and you're
putting other people at risk.

But, but if you do happen to
get something like that in your background,

you know, there was a time,
you know, in the 80s and 90s and

early 2000s, you weren't going
to get hired at a major airline.

They weren't going to take
that chance.

They've since changed.

Right.

And you know, I have friends
and you, you might have some friends,

Justin, that, that have made
it to the airlines overcoming, you

know, something like that.

But people get really upset
about that.

They're like, well, you know,
I've changed, but the Truth.

The fact, the truth is there
are studies out there that show if

you've got a DUI in your pat,
it's not just people taking a moral

high ground.

If you have a DUI in your
background, you're much more likely

to be involved in an aviation
accident at some point in your career.

That really upsets people when
they hear that.

But that is what the data shows.

And so the airlines know that.

Passengers, attorneys know that.

And so if an airline hires
somebody that, you know, has that

in their background, and
ultimately that person has an issue,

and, you know, it's going to
be an issue.

And so there's risk.

The airline's looking at it
from a risk point of view, you know.

You know, has this person
really changed?

Maybe they have, but can we
take the risk?

You know, so that's just one
micro example of how complex this

is.

And those algorithms, like I
said, are pretty accurate at determining

who's going to get through
training, how much training they're

going to need.

And there's some algorithms
that even predict, I mean, the work

that Delta has done.

They followed cohorts from the
90s all the way through to, you know,

10, 15 years into their profession.

They'll even track things like
how often people call in sick, and

they'll go back and look at
what, what they brought in from their

hiring, those, those, whatever
they had, whether they went to college

at this place or, or what
regional they even went to, or what

corporate flying they went to.

And they know now they can
build a, a pretty good statistical

picture of people and they
know kind of what kind of employees

are likely to be, you know,
which is kind.

Which is kind of interesting.

So it's also a problem.

I don't mean to go on and on
about this, so, for instance, let's

pick on Delta for just a second.

So, you know, my wife, who
does not apply for Delta, but she

applies for another, another
major carrier, but she, you know,

early on she applied to Delta,
but I knew the algorithm at Delta,

and so my wife was one who
left the industry.

She flew for Mesaba in the
early 2000s, got furloughed, left,

left Mesaba.

We decided to have kids.

And so she stayed away from
flying for about a decade there while

we raised our kids.

And she did tangentially stay
involved at und.

She became a CRJ sim instructor.

And so she was still involved
in the industry.

But I'm telling you, I know
that algorithm at Delta, and that

blows that up.

That's not going to.

It's going to it's going to
show that here's a person that doesn't.

Is not really passionate about aviation.

And I can tell you she is.

She's wanted to fly since she
was a kid.

So, so, so even though these
algorithms make these predictions

about people, they're not
always accurate.

But you can't really blame the
airlines either, because they're

playing the numbers right.

It's like when you play blackjack.

You know, you may lose an
individual hand, but if you play

the best system possible,
you're going to minimize your losses.

Or better yet, if you're a
card counter, you'll squeeze out

a little bit of an edge.

And they, and they know that,
and they know you're still going

to lose some hands.

But, but, you know, so, yeah,
it's interesting.

I could talk for hours about.

I could tell you now.

Yeah, yeah.

How do you get access to the algorithms?

Is it something that they let.

What do you say?

You don't.

Because they want to avoid lawsuits.

However, there have been a
couple studies, so at Delta in particular,

and I can't remember the name,
there was a psychologist, it was

a Hoffman, I'll have to look
it up.

But there was a psychologist
who did a lot of this industrial

psychological work for Delta,
and they did publish a few studies

in the aviation psychology journals.

And even though they didn't
mention Delta, they were hired by

Delta to help build this algorithm.

And this was a few years ago,
so things might have changed, I don't

know.

But they did publish the
results of what they found with cohorts

of major airline pilots as
from hiring all the way up through

10, 15 years onto the line.

And that's about your only
insight into it.

But the airlines do not like
to publish their methodology wrong

or right, as frustrating as it
is from a pilot point of view, because

it does open them up to some litigation.

Yeah, you know, like, why, why
didn't I get hired?

And the, the one, the other
piece is if the airlines apply an

algorithm, as long as the
algorithm isn't biased or doesn't

like, draw from, doesn't like,
prohibit underrepresented populations

from making their way to line,
it's really hard to sue them for

anything because, because
they'll be able to go to court and

say, well, we have an
algorithm that picks it.

And so then the lawyers for
anyone that might be suing on hiring

practices have to prove that
the algorithm was flawed instead

of the culture was flawed.

So it's a complex area.

And I will tell you, every
airline that we've mentioned over

the years have several times
been sued by several people that

did not get hired.

And it certainly isn't like
the number one thing they get sued

for, but they get served.

It's not going to surprise
anyone at any of the airline properties.

Someone's suing them.

Yeah, it's interesting.

Yeah.

When you said you looked at
all the data, I was like, well, similar

to what you just said, it's
like, I know there's no way they'd

give up the data unless they
were forced to buy by the FBI or

by anyone, any kind of three
letter agency, but it just doesn't

seem like something that would
ever happen.

What is your take?

Looking forward to the end of
the year in almost 365 days.

What's your take?

You willing to predict for
pilot hiring?

Are you willing to predict
that at the end of the year, you

know, Boeing gets this stuff
back together, Airbus, it looks like

it's almost back to normal.

And when we mean normal, we
probably don't mean the last two

years.

We mean maybe, which is we
still mean incredible hiring because

certain airlines still have to
hire more than others.

But what do you predict?

Yeah, so I have not done a
forecast in a couple years because

it's been really hard to
forecast through the pandemic and

the after effects of the pandemic.

It's like one thing after
another just comes up.

You're like, yeah, and you
know, we would have never modeled

the Boeing issue.

Yeah, you know, that would
have been almost, it would have been,

you know, almost like a, I
hate to call it a black swan event,

but it's one of those events
that you just would have never thought

to model.

And so, so what I'm giving you
is a little more on the speculative

side than maybe a, more of a
rigorous scientific forecast.

But I do, I do think exactly
what, what you said.

I do think Boeing's going to
start getting their act together

toward the end of 2025, which
means that you're going to start

seeing the hiring, more hiring
pickup later in the year than, you

know, earlier.

But I do think historically
it's still going to be a very, very

decent haul yield of pilots.

However, downstream, the
effects most people are going to

see is, is, you know, three,
four years ago, remember, you know,

two, three years ago, I guess,
you know, pretty much everyone was

getting interviewed and hired,
you know, and you know, they were

pushing below sub 1000 pilots,
our pilots and stuff like that.

And you know, I think, I think
that's gone for at least a little

while.

But I will tell you, those
days will come back.

I don't know exactly when, but
when we have the faucets open on

the supply chain and the
retirements are in full force, which

at some airlines don't really
kick in for even a few more years

before you really start seeing
them, the fundamentals are still

there that there's going to be
robust hiring.

So, you know, if you're a
person entering the industry and

you're contemplating a 30 to
35 year career in a 121 carrier,

this really shouldn't bother
you much right now.

You need to be focusing on
getting the competitive minimums

and getting as much into your,
your resume as you possibly can,

you know, to move forward as
quickly as you can.

But long term, that shouldn't
bother you at all.

Yeah, I understand why it
would though, you know, like, because

in the now, right now it's
like, maybe you're the person that's

like, all right, well, I, I
want to keep my word, right?

Like you were just like, I
want to make sure that I give this

employer X amount of time.

And then by the time that
comes, the airlines aren't hiring

anymore.

Where your best friend was
like, hey, screw my employer.

I'm going to go apply, I'm
going to take.

Gets a job, gets rewarded for that.

And you're just like, what the heck?

I stuck to my word and I'm
stuck here.

This sucks, you know, but it's
timing, it's a risk.

Like, you take risk on both
ends of that.

Like, that could have played
out horribly for that person.

He didn't get hired or say the
hiring freeze happens.

And then they're like, well,
we're not, you have a cjo, but we're

not going to give you a class date.

And then they're kind of in limbo.

So there's definitely times
where it works and it doesn't work.

Yeah, I mean, for, for my
sake, personally, I hope that happens.

One thing I think it's
interesting is what happens if Boeing

can't get it together?

Like, is there pressure the
airlines put on, do they eventually

just start buying more Airbus,
but then Airbus will have even more

demand as well?

Does Ember have an opportunity
to make more?

I know they have the 190 dash
2 or whatever they call it, which

you really don't see that
airplane popping up.

I don't know if it's too small
or what it is, but I see that airplane

Instagram all the time.

Like, I haven't seen a single
person or a Single person.

I haven't seen a single
airline actually buy that airplane,

but they're promo it really hard.

So what happens if Boeing
can't get those airplanes out?

Well, that's a problem.

If Boeing, you know, if they
don't return to their full production

capabilities, you know, as
soon as possible, you know, every

month, it absolutely is going
to have ripple effects and it's difficult

to replace that with Airbus supply.

You know, most carriers now,
most major carriers now do have the

ability, they have split
fleets probably, it's probably structurally

speaking, philosophically
speaking, just for this reason.

So they don't get overly
reliant on one fleet that.

Nope, not.

I'm not talking to you
Southwest, because they are.

But yeah, so you do see that.

So you will look for that.

In fact, I think United found
an opportunity to pick up, I don't

know if it was 10 or 15 extra
NEOs this year from another carrier

that.

Yeah, they're leasing.

Right.

I think.

Leasing.

Are they leasing some 320s or 321eos?

Yes.

So a lot of people don't
realize that yes, airlines do order

directly from the
manufacturers like Airbus and Boeing,

but there's also capital
companies out there that will order

as well.

These leasing companies, in
fact, is GE Capital is a big one.

But there's some banks out
there that are well known for this.

I want to say like the bank of
Utah rings a bell.

But I have that account all
the time at my last job.

Yeah, yeah.

Bank of Utah is always on there.

So if you to say that it's
like I never heard about.

Right.

Yeah, yeah.

It's crazy.

Yeah.

All the time we would fly a
bunch of random.

Yeah.

Anyways.

Yeah, there's some banks out
there that are known for this.

And so what they'll do is some
of them will even be so aggressive

that they'll actually go to
the manufacturers, buy these planes,

knowing that there'll be an
opportunity to lease them.

And I mean, it would be a
really good time right now to have

some Airbuses and Boeings
because you're going to get some

really good rates.

The airlines are going to be
anchoring for that.

But like you said, there's
like anything, there's risk to that

too.

There's going to be times
where I mean, if all of a sudden

it's a grounded fleet, you
know, then that's not going to be

a very good thing to hold on to.

So.

So yeah, so let's just keep
our fingers crossed that Boeing gets

together, they have gone
through, you know, Management change,

you know, we won't know how
quickly that's going to turn.

I, like I said, my best guess
is, is toward the end of 2025, you'll

see that return.

And then when you get into Q1,
Q2 of 26, you'll get it back to normal.

The FAA still, and probably
rightly so, the FAA is still very

much up in their business and
it's gonna sound really mean.

The FAA doesn't always have
the internal expertise either.

So when you put some of those
frontline production experts and

assembly line experts from the
FAA in there, they're going to be

extra cautious.

Right, because they don't want
to be the person that, on behalf

of the regulator that approves these.

And then later on there's
another problem that comes up.

So I think the FAA has
definitely been extra cautious.

It will be interesting to see
under the new administration that

tends to be a little less,
well, actually a lot less in the

terms of regulatory regulation
and regulatory nature.

We'll see if that has an effect.

I was asked about that the
other day in a class I had, and I

do think that will have an effect.

And I, I say that because I
was working on a couple industry

working groups during the
first Trump administration and we

were specifically told if your
group recommends a new regulation,

you have to find two
regulations to get rid of, because

that was the.

I didn't think it would work
at the time.

I'm not making any political points.

We were able to kind of make
our way through that and we were

able to reduce some of the
regulation and we think still keep

the safety margin.

I don't know.

I mean, people can judge that
for themselves.

So, so it is possible that
they'll, you know, depending on who

they put in charge of the
transportation, who the new FAA administrator

is going to be because, you
know, that person's leaving, Whitaker's

leaving, you know, under the,
you know, to make room for someone

new.

So, so we'll see.

You know, but all that's going
to be a variable that plays on this

giant equation as to when
things are going to return to normal.

Yeah.

I was going to ask, I will.

Say this, if Boeing was at, at
or near full production right now,

and if Airbus was at full
production right now, we would absolutely

be in the same spot that we
were a couple years ago when there

was gangbusters hiring.

So like I said, it's 90, 95%.

There really hasn't been much
of a slowdown.

We're all well aware of the
inflationary issues.

But believe it or not, that
does not have as dramatic an effect

on passenger travel.

Inflation does not have that
much of an effect on it.

Other things do, like GDP and
things like that, but as far as inflation,

not so much.

That has more of an effect on
the cost side for the airline with

fuel, labor, et cetera.

But these airlines are so profitable.

Delta just announced a big profit.

American, I'm pretty sure, is
going to announce a profit.

United, they're estimating to
announce a pretty good profit.

So the, you know, the, the
pilots, that profit sharing are all

pretty happy.

Man.

When I saw the Delta Pro, I
was like, holy smokes.

Like, that's, that's different.

You know, I was told about
that when I was not in the airline

industry.

You know, like Delta, profit
sharing buys you a new kitchen where

the other airline profit
sharing buys you an oven or something

like that.

But, well, it's going to buy
you more than a new kitchen.

Just the.

What people don't realize.

I mean, I, this is going to be
shocking, but there are times I don't

know how it's going to be this year.

I'm sure the calculations are
being done, but if you made $300,000

a year as a narrow body
captain, that at Delta, you could.

There were some years where
you would get 60 to $70,000 profit

sharing.

Now I think that you don't see
that as much, so you're going to

have to settle for 40 to 50,000.

You know, I will tell you, I'm
looking at.

My wife's looking at United.

There's been some early projections.

Hers are going to be, you
know, very substantial as well.

And she's just a first officer
at her carrier.

I don't know, I maybe
accidentally mentioned it, but they're

looking at some profit sharing
as well.

And so, I mean, these are some
things that people don't realize

that profit sharing's, you
know, we have to think Delta for

opening that concept up for
the industry.

Absolutely.

And also for all the pilot contracts.

Right.

Like, Delta was the one that
made a point.

We're paying the pilots this.

We don't know if the other
airlines can pay this.

And that's what they did.

And thankfully for my sake,
the other airlines did mostly match

it.

I mean, there might be some
differences in contracts and stuff

that benefit one carrier or
the other in every different way.

Right.

There's some good things about
each one.

What also I think is really
interesting is just because Delta

is king now doesn't mean Delta
isn't a king in 10 or 15 years, as

you have seen.

I mean, we've seen major
airlines, historic airlines at the

top, and now they're not here anymore.

They've been absorbed, they've
been litigated, they've been done.

Now they're names of regional
airlines, you know, and it's just,

it's wild to see.

And when you, I mean, this is
when it goes to, when you get hired

by someone, go to what you
feel like is the best fit for you.

Don't just go to the airline
that is the best at the time, because

there's no guarantee that that
airline is gonna be the best airline

by the end of your career,
halfway through your career, or whatever

it may be.

And right now, I mean, Delta's
killing it, right?

Kudos to them.

They seem to be just have it
figured out right now, which is awesome

to see because, you know that
your airline has the potential to

eventually get point as well.

But, I mean, I, I'm, I
wouldn't say I'm jealous.

I'm, I'm envious and I'm happy
for my friends to see him over there,

but it's like, just wait,
we'll get back.

I promise we'll be there.

You know, it'll be.

But it's, yeah, it's, it's
great to see an airline just do so

well, and it feels like
they've just made great decisions

and every decision has just
been like anything they sign is just

like his money.

I, I agree.

I, I think you are seeing
some, some airlines and this is going

to be, this is going to be.

I'm going to put my union hat on.

You know, in the 90s and the
early 2000s, one of my biggest criticisms

of airline management in
general, and this is going to sound

really, really mean, but I'm
just being brutally honest here,

Justin.

I think a lot of them that
would come out of business school,

not always the cream of the
crop came to the airlines, right?

So, you know, like at
American, for instance, at amr, and

I know them because, you know,
again, I was the mec chair at American

Eagle, which was wholly owned
by American.

At the time, we had 3,000 pilots.

And when you look at the
people that would rise to the top

there, they had a management
rotation program where you'd come

in as a management trainee and
you rotate a few months like a doctor

would in a rotation, kind of
figure out where you were going to

end up at.

And so they tried to develop a
lot from within.

But I'm telling you, I
remember talking to some people I

knew at business school
saying, hey, how come you're not

coming to the airlines?

And like, are you kidding?

With all the labor problems
and the fuel problems at the time,

nobody had really turned a profit.

They're like, why would I go there?

I'm going to go to tech, I'm
going to go to biotech, I'm going

to do manufacturing.

So I do believe there was kind
of at the time a big brain gap.

And I think there were a lot
of decisions that were made in the

airline world that were just
horrible for everybody, in particular

the shareholders, but, but
also the employees, everyone else.

Now, I think that's not true.

I think now that we have put
some people in charge of some of

these major airlines, you
know, even if you, if, even if you

don't particularly like all
the decisions they've made, you're

an employee at one of them,
you can't say they're incompetent

anymore.

There was a time when you
could say that and you could defend

that argument on some levels,
but you can't really do that anymore,

especially, I mean, I'm going
to leave Spirit out of that because,

you know, I've been pretty
brutal on the Spirit Spirit folks.

But, you know, I mean, I think
that was well deserved.

But when you look at United,
when you look at Delta, when you

look at American, when you
look, I mean, Southwest we know has

gone through some well
documented issues, but by and large,

I think we're a lot better
than what we have seen in the past.

And you're seeing some really
good ideas.

The revenue optimization, the
data science that's being applied

to operational problems alone.

And then of course, we've
talked about it so many times, I

won't go on a di tribe about
it again.

But the ancillary income
opportunities and the way to bolster

things, these are all
unbelievable innovations that have

made it very profitable now
and now.

And Wall street now is taking notice.

I do get called on occasion to
come in and give some expert advice

to different Wall street
firms, though.

They want to know how I feel
about certain things, you know, and

they do this with a bunch of
other people.

And that's how some of those
analysts get their opinions on Buy

Sell hold is they talk to
people that study the industries.

And so I never used to get
called, but Wall Street's definitely

looking at airlines a lot more
in the growth side than the value

side that they traditionally
looked at.

Well, that's good, right?

Yeah, right.

I think so.

Yeah, absolutely.

You mentioned Spirit.

You mentioned that you're hard
on them.

Try not to be hard on the day.

But what's the, what's an
update with Spirit?

I guess we'll say what's an
update versus.

I mean bankruptcy.

We, we both talked.

We don't, I don't remember
when the last podcast came out whether

we announced that the bankruptcy.

I think we did or maybe it was
just after.

Anyways, everyone knows now
bankruptcy, the furloughs, awful.

No one wants to see it.

What is an update that you've seen?

We talked about a timeline of
this off air.

So we'll talk about the, the
timeline and expedite expedited timeline

that seems to be in front of
us with spirits bankruptcy and then

kind of an outlook or a
prognosis of what you think that

we might see of Spirit for the
rest of the decade.

Yeah.

So.

So, so let's talk a little bit
about how a bankruptcy works with

an airline.

You know, there's three
different types of bankruptcies,

the most common being full liquidation.

But I'm sorry, one common path
is full liquidation.

That's not what we're talking
about here.

And then another path is reorganization.

Chapter 11 is that, that's
what you more often see in these

airlines.

And the idea is, is you can
get as the airline, you can get relief

from your creditors, you can
put, you can restructure your debt,

you can do lots of things like that.

And the theory is, is you put
together a game plan, then you emerge

from bankruptcy, you know, and
then you.

Everyone's happy except for
probably some of your creditors that

aren't going to, are going to
maybe see some kind of a ratio on

what you owed them or some
kind of elongated terms.

But it'll be something like
that is the theory behind it.

But what happens in a
bankruptcy is the court, when you

file, they assign who's known
as a bankruptcy trustee.

And they do try to find
trustees that have domain experience.

So they will try to find a
trustee that has a business background.

In particular airlines, you
know, they don't always, they're

not always successful in
finding a really good trustee for

that.

But.

But that's what they'll do.

And now what Spirit has to do
is they put together.

I don't know how much you want
me to get into this, Justin, but

they put together a couple of
committees and there's like a primary

creditor committee and there's
like a secondary creditor committee

and they both have different names.

But.

But the primary is going to be
the people that, that, you know,

have what we call Senior debt
obligations, which basically means

they, they've given loans or
the companies collateralize things

that, that guarantees loans.

And, you know, if it wasn't
for this bankruptcy protecting them,

they could force the company
to liquidate and sell off their assets

and get their money back, you
know, and try to live to fight another

day if you're one of these companies.

So that senior committee is
going to put together a plan along

with management at Spirit, and
they're going to give it to the trustee,

and the trustee is going to
take a look at it and say, I think

this will work.

I don't think that'll work.

I think you can pay this
person, but not that person.

And by the way, the secondary
committee are the people that are

not as senior, and that does
often include the employees.

The employees will have a
voice on that secondary committee,

the different employee groups
and then also shareholders sometimes

are on that.

There'll be like some
shareholder groups, but they get

to also kind of partake, but
they don't have quite the voice.

It's like sitting at the kids table.

I mean, I don't know.

I don't know how else to say
it, but it's, you know, the adults

are talking, but you can say
stuff every now and then.

And then if the trustee buys
off on the plan and they try to get

consensus between the
creditors and the company, they'll

come back to the judge, and
then the judge will ultimately be

the one that approves it.

I will tell you, it's like a
plea deal.

You know, probably 99 out of
100 times, the judge is going to

buy off on what the trustee is
going to recommend.

And by the way, the committee
may be upset about that and they

may try to fight in court and
say the trustee's wrong for doing

this.

We really should be doing, you
know, this other way.

And so the judge may have to
kind of work through some of that,

but they'll put together a
plan and they'll prove a plan.

I'm kind of being long winded
here, but Spirit, their job right

now, or what they want to do
is they want to emerge from bankruptcy.

They're saying in Q1 of 2025.

And like you said, we talked offline.

That's a pretty aggressive schedule.

I think that's a pretty
aggressive schedule.

They declared bankruptcy in November.

I mean, it certainly has
happened before.

It just depends on the
complexities of the debt and who's

fighting it.

How many, you know, are the
creditors agreeing with the company

on how to restructure things
or are they having to arbitrate every

dispute with the trustee, etc.

Etc.

So I don't know, it seems a
little aggressive to me, but I hope

that's true.

And then the judge has to
approve the emerging from bankruptcy

plan and then at some point in
time all the creditors are, there's

new deals signed, new contract sign.

And by the way, this is really bad.

There are companies that
specialize in giving loans to other

companies that are on
bankruptcy because you get a super

senior position, so you get to
hop on top of everybody and you get

like the last nut and bolt of
an airplane that you get to collateralize

no matter what's existed before.

So going into bankruptcy is
also another opportunity for the

company to raise more funds
that also get put into this equation.

And so it's a, you could
probably talk to a corporate bankruptcy

attorney.

I'm overly simplifying the
process, but that's what's going

on right now.

And there's motions being
filed and meetings happening and

lots of arguments behind the scenes.

But hopefully everything works well.

They emerge Q1, they put a
plan back in place, they overcome

whatever operational
deficiencies and management deficiencies

that they had before and
they're able to put together a winning,

a winning game plan and you
know, be successful.

And a lot of like this has
happened to a lot of care.

There's a lot of carriers that
have declared bankruptcy, reorganize

and have come out the other
end just fine.

Absolutely.

There's a lot of pain in that
too, right.

Like, I mean when the airline
comes out just fine, there's a lot

of losses in that as well.

Pilot furloughs, I believe I
just read that, that they had about

200 people that they fired.

I don't remember the exact number.

I want to say a couple hundred
forcibly removed them by armed security

guards.

And obviously that's a lot of
a show, right?

You never know how an employee
is going to act and all that kind

of stuff.

So the fact that they're
armed, I mean that seems a little

aggressive, but I mean it's
just, you never know how someone's

gonna react.

Right.

They're probably taking all
the precautions that they can just

because of, I don't know, just everything.

But it isn't like there's a
lot of loss and a lot of pain that

happens in these furloughs and
it makes a lot of individual very

difficult.

Especially I mean if you're
working, you're probably working

non stop for a company that
you don't have full confidence will

be able to pay your full check
or will be there the next day.

Right.

So you're putting a lot of
time in.

You're putting a lot of effort
for who knows what, and it's just

awful.

Yep.

Well, let's talk a little bit
about that armed guard thing, because

I read the same thing and I
found that kind of interesting.

Like you was like, that seems
like a little bit of an overkill.

Two things with that.

I agree.

It seems like, you know, and
who knows?

That's what was reported.

Who knows, you know, emotions
are going to be high during that

time.

And so we don't.

None of you or I weren't
there, so we didn't witness all that.

But I did read those same reports.

I will say this.

There's some interesting
dynamics going on in the background.

Okay.

One is, is whenever you see a
company that has kind of an overreaction

or a perceived overreaction or
something, that usually means something

really bad happened in their
past that they've learned from.

And so they put these new rules.

So something must have
happened sometime at Spirit where

some.

Someone was let go and things
didn't go well.

So they passed this rule that
said, from now on, we're going to

have armed security there.

That's.

That's probably what happened,
I'm speculating.

But there's also a greater
dynamic here when you're laying people

off nowadays.

And again, when you look at
some of the salaries that the upper

people get, it creates a very
angry situation because it's like,

okay, well, well, here you got
somebody making 20 million a year.

I'm getting furloughed to
basically as a pond to get better

cost, to get more debt, to.

To basically get this, these,
this group of people, this small

group of people, a lot more
money later on, you know, and I'm

being sacrificed for it.

And then also, given the
current climate, as we all know,

it hasn't been a very popular
time to be a CEO out there in the

industry.

There's a lot of.

And so these companies are not
taking chances.

I have, I have heard reports.

It's not just for a situation
like this.

We're seeing a lot more that
terminations and layoffs are being

handled a lot differently all
around the place because.

Because of this issue.

So.

Yeah.

Anyway, I read that too,
though, and I found that kind of

interesting and certainly
seemed atypical.

I've been around a lot of
people that were let go at the airlines

in my union days.

I'd never, unless there was a
known thing like Someone was getting

removed because they were
making threats or something.

But just apart from hey, this
is your last day, you know, normally

people would come around and
say goodbye and you know, and you

know, it wasn't contentious.

It was sad, but it wasn't a
contentious thing.

So yeah, Justin, here as a
pilot, you know that the more wealth

you accumulate, the more
complex your financial planning becomes.

From diversifying savings and
investments to proactively mitigating

tax liabilities.

There's a lot to consider.

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That's allworthairline.com
pilotopilot and now back to today's

episode.

You know, kind of somewhat
changing gears but still staying

on the same topic.

I think it was a couple weeks
ago I saw that Scott Kirby was asked

about Spirit.

And in my mind I don't know
why I thought someone with such a

public kind of Persona or that
was leading such a big company in

the same industry would kind
of just like, you know, we're keeping

a close eye on it.

Obviously we hate for anyone
to go through something like that.

But you know, we're not really
going to publicly comment about whether

we think they're going to make
it or not.

But he was essentially like, I
hope they go out of business.

There's no chance that they're
going to be an airline anymore.

And that really kind of
shocked me a little bit that he was

so forward with those comments.

I saw those same comments, I
thought the same thing, you know,

back in the day in the, you
know, 70s and 80s, you know, the

post deregulation, regulatory
reform, whatever you want to call

it.

But this became a very laissez
faire industry.

It was very capitalistic, dog
eat dog and we would call them airline

deaths.

Whenever an airline would go
extinct, it was called an airline

death.

The problem is whenever a
large market share carrier dies,

goes bankrupt, liquidates.

The truth of the matter is
there's a lot of meat on the bone

for the other carriers to come in.

And just like any other wrong
or right, whether you want to look

at it more like a, like a
vulture scavenger type thing, but

there's a lot of opportunity there.

And so, so I think we saw a
little bit of that old school mentality.

And, and I do also think that
Scott Kirby believes and I mean,

the jury is out.

If you would have told me
three years ago that low cost carrier

business models are kind of in
question, I would have said, I don't

know, they seem to really
figure out how to generate revenue.

I will tell you I rescinded that.

And the jury is out.

And he may know that it may be difficult.

That being said, if someone
like Spirit, I don't think this will

happen.

But if somebody like Spirit
doesn't make it out of bankruptcy

or Allegiant has a problem, as
we were talking about earlier Frontier,

they're going through contract
negotiations or you know, if there

is an airline death amongst
the local low cost carriers, sadly

on one side for those
employees, but happily on the other

side there'll be a lot more
opportunity for that surviving low

cost carriers to pick up that bandwidth.

Even though some of them have
dissimilar business plans, they'll

still figure out a way to
transport those passengers.

So yeah, we can't forget that
it's a very competitive environment

and it is a zero sum game in
some instances.

And there's winners and losers.

You know, we haven't seen that
as much in the last 10 to 15 years

because times have been good
for everybody.

But if you go back to the 90s,
80s, 70s, it very much was some,

there were some years you
weren't sure if your airline was

going to survive.

Yeah, I mean, my dad worked
for US Air.

US Airways, post 9, 11, US
Airways even for a while was not

a good place to be.

I remember he specifically
would tell me, he'd be like, I mean,

I bring everything home with me.

I mean, I guess mailboxes were
more of a thing back then.

And lockers or whatever it may be.

He's like, I bring after every
trip, I pack it up, I bring it home.

He's like, I don't know if I'm
gonna go back there.

And obviously if the airline
went under, he doesn't want to go

back and pick up his stuff.

That sounds awful.

So he, she brought it back
home and I was like, interesting.

So yeah, I mean, yeah, it's,
it is a different time.

And I'm sure Kirby was like, I
see airplanes and I see pilots.

Two of my biggest problems
that I have can be solved if this

goes out.

Absolutely.

So he's like, let's get it.

And I'm sure other airlines on
the same page like, hey, let's, let's

get it.

Let's get it.

Come on, you say it, you say
it, not me.

Absolutely.

Yeah.

Yeah, I laugh.

It's an awful thing to laugh at.

Like when I was laughing at that.

I'm not laughing at happening.

It's just, I don't know the
reaction to have with that.

Yeah, no, I, I know exactly
what you mean.

It's almost absurd on one, one
sense of it, you know, how, how it,

you know, so easily can happen.

But on the other side of it,
it's, it's, you know, it's, people

forget.

It's, it's like a capital
market, you know, I mean, there are

winners and losers and, you
know, everyone was a winner for,

for a long period of time in
this industry.

But I don't know if that's, I
don't know if that's going to, that's

going to continue.

I personally don't see any
airline deaths.

I mean, I guess if we were
going to have to predict one, the

closest to that would be like,
well, an Air Wisconsin, which we

can talk about, or, but, but a
Spirit on the, on the larger carriers.

Those might be the closest to it.

But I still think that
there's, there's a lot of wood to

burn before you get to a
situation like that.

Yeah, yeah.

I mean, we were getting ready
to talk into it now, but we can transition

there as well.

You mentioned two things that
I want to talk about.

One was any updates with
allegiant pilots?

They want a contract.

Frontier.

They want a contract.

And then as we just talked,
Air Wisconsin lost a contract and

was their only airline contract.

But as we talked about
offline, from what you made it seem

like they, I mean, obviously
it really hurts to lose an airline

contract, especially when you
only have one airline contract.

But they talk a big game.

They think that they have a plan.

Yeah, I, So there's a couple
things, There's a couple things about

Air Wisconsin that make it
very, very interesting.

They are a carrier that has
found a way to survive every major

downturn and every possible
bad thing that can happen to a regional.

And they've always found a way
to survive.

So there's that unlike any
other Air Care, unlike any other

regional out there.

Maybe, maybe save Mesa, maybe
Mesa also has found ways to survive

through tough times.

But, but, but they really have.

And you know, there were times
when like the United contract was

up and, you know, they picked
up America and then went back to

United and went back to
America and you didn't know if they

were going to survive those.

But they are claiming, and the
management there is saying that they

think they have enough
auxiliary work to do in particular

things like, well, for lack of
a better word, charter.

But it'd be like more of a
schedule charter, like, like sports

teams, college sports teams
and things like that.

Using the CRJ 2002 and maybe
some casino runs and other specialty

type flights.

They think they have that.

They think they have a market
there that they've identified.

That being said, I have not
seen a carrier make that jump.

I've not seen a carrier go out
on their own like that and make that

jump and survive.

So I don't know.

I have friends at Air Wisconsin.

I have a lot of former
students there.

I hope that, that management
knows what they're doing.

They do have kind of a senior
management in place.

So I would be surprised if.

You know, the other thing, Justin.

We don't know.

We don't know if this was
American Airlines invoking some type

of a cancellation notice
through the jet services agreement

that they had signed or if
this was something that Air Wisconsin

said, hey, we have an
opportunity cost here.

We're losing money with this
AA fee.

We make more money on this
cargo feed and we think it's a niche

we can exploit.

They both kind of say the same thing.

You know, American put out a
press release saying, you know, effective

April 2025, Air Wisconsin no
longer be doing this.

And then Air Wisconsin put out
a thing saying, hey, we got these

great opportunities.

So I don't know what happened there.

Certainly something happened
in a boardroom somewhere or in a

zoom meeting where someone was
shouting at somebody probably.

But it, you know, they're.

It's definitely going to be a
breakup and then the question is

going to be, what's going to
happen Air Wisconsin after.

They're a survivor carrier, so
I would never bet against them.

But on the other side of it,
I've never seen anyone else pull

this out.

Yeah.

And they also have really old
airplanes, which is eventually going

to get expensive that they own.

Yeah.

Maintenance is still expensive though.

Yes.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Well, look, the CRJ200, as we
all know, was introduced in the early

80s and they still have some
of those planes that introduced in

the early 80s.

And I was there when they.

Well, it used to be the CRJ100.

A lot of people don't realize
that, but they had these pressure

bulkhead issues.

The planes would just crack in
half because remember, they were

former corporate aircraft.

They were not designed to take
eight to ten cycles a day.

They were designed to take,
you know, they were, they were long

range.

It was, it was the Challenger 605.

Yeah, yeah.

And so they were designed to
go maybe one or two cycles, you know,

every 24 hours.

And all of a sudden they, they get.

So they had to beef up
everything and re.

Redeploy the CRJ 200.

That's why it's the 200, not
the 100.

So these, these planes have,
they have seen it, man.

They have been worked hard.

And you're right, maintenance
is really, really high on them.

But they don't have to make a
mortgage payment either.

And so that kind of
counterbalances that.

But I will tell you
operationally, when you get that

old of an aircraft, no matter
how good your maintenance operation

is expensive, it is really
hard to keep that together.

And the other thing is, is,
you know, when you start doing, I

don't know enough about
scheduled charter operations and

you know, charter contracts, I
don't know what the remedy is if

you cancel a flight or not.

But they'll CRJs have a, have
a higher cancellation than say like

some of the newer aircraft
just for maintenance issues.

I don't know what happens in this.

I don't know if they're.

How much reliability weighs in
on these contracts.

You know, if you're a sports
team and you got to go to a tournament

and all of a sudden you can't
go, I don't know what happens.

Well, they probably rescheduled.

Yeah.

Especially if you're working
with big clientele.

Yeah.

You're not gonna have a
contract for much longer.

Right.

That's my point.

Yeah.

So I don't know.

Big giant question mark.

I just wish them the best
because there's a lot of good people

that work there.

It's a good operation.

I hope they make it.

Also they have a pretty good
contract for regional airline.

I've always admired the fact
that as an alpha carrier.

Again, I'm going to put my pro
union hat on here for just a second.

They've always led with a lot
of really good quality of life issues.

And you know, there are some
really good regional airlines out

there.

You know, endeavor now kind
of, kind of takes the cake maybe

with the, with a really nice
regional contract.

You know, they have a really
good one.

But for a long time Air
Wisconsin had by far, for many years

they were the leader in the
clubhouse in terms of, you know,

they had things like men,
value of the day duty rigs, tripper.

They had stuff early on that
you only saw at the majors and these

guys, these guys had it.

So.

So I hope the carrier makes it.

They were, they've always kind
of been a survivor and they've been

ahead of their game and a lot
of things.

So what's a union's role when
something like this happens?

Like obviously there's not
much they can do when a company lose

contracts, right?

Who, what are they going to
fight the companies be like, we have

nothing left.

But is a union supposed to get
involved earlier on to raise those

flags and is all they have
just the voice of just, hey, things

don't look good.

Things don't look good.

Please try to change something.

Yeah, well, the union.

So there's a concept known as
management rights.

It exists in every collective
bargaining agreement and it basically

says anything that's not
specifically covered in this agreement,

management has the right to
make a decision on.

Right.

But then there's also the
reality if all of a sudden your airline,

your major airline partner
feed goes away, you're what can you

do?

There's a reality of the situation.

So as a labor union, what
you're going to do is you're going

to look at the current
contract, you're going to see how

it contemplates irregular
operations, charter flights.

You're going to see if there's
enough language in there to cover

what everyone needs.

If not, you're going to go to
the company, you're going to say,

hey, we understand you're
going to do this.

I mean, I'm sure the company's
been communicating with them, but

just in case they haven't,
you're going to sit down and if you

need to work out some side
letters to cover things that maybe

weren't contemplated because
originally they were designed to

be a 121 scheduled, you know,
passenger carrier and now they're

going to a, you know,
irregular operations.

It's going.

Or maybe that's, I say regular
operations, but you know what I mean,

they're going to go to non scheduled.

So then the question is what
happens and what happens in that

case?

Do they, do they have like
what happens to duty rigs in that

case?

You know, if someone has to
sit in an FBO for 12 hours, you know,

how much are they going to get
paid for that?

Yeah.

Is it 2 to 1, 4 to 1?

You know, so there's going to
be things like that that might have

to be worked out.

Yeah, it's interesting but
like I said, hopefully it works out

for them because no one wants
to lose a job.

Thankfully people are hiring
now, but still it's like I don't

want to see that happen.

What's an update with Frontier
Pay Allegiant?

Pay.

I have a good buddy that is at allegiant.

He's trying to give me some stuff.

I don't know if you know,
anything else that's going on there,

you know, there.

I know that it's been contentious.

You know, there's been strike
votes taken and I'm going to talk

about them both together here
for, for a bit.

Frontier in particular has been.

They've put out a lot of press
releases lately.

They've kind of stepped it up.

I noticed there's friends with
a few people that are spokespeople

on the union side for them.

They've been out making the
rounds with local press and stuff

like that.

You know, they're starting to
put out the, the concept that, hey,

if we're, you know, we might
go on strike soon, which of course

does have an effect on future passengers.

Even though we all know
there's a, there's a NMB process

that has to be followed, you
know, or I'm sorry, Railway Labor

Law Act.

Railway Labor Act Law that has
to be followed that basically says

that, that, you know, you
can't just go on strike.

There's no such thing as a
wildcat strike.

You have to go through this process.

And.

But that being said, it's
enough to kind of speak it out there.

It does start putting a little
pressure on the company and ups the

game.

In Frontier's case, it's a
little bit more egregious because

Frontier is announcing a
pretty good profit.

And you know, the pilots have
been talking for a year now on their

contract talks after the
amendable date.

And so that's not a good, it's
not a good look nowadays, you know,

for, for a large airline that
hopes to retain and recruit, recruit

and retain pilots to have to
be bringing in a lot of profits.

And then you kind of have a
contract that's not up to standards

with a lot of the others.

You know, it's, it's a tough,
it's a tough road to explain if you're

there.

The case of allegiant, that's
a little more of a black box to me.

Maybe you know more about
that, Justin.

I do know that, you know, the
pilots for years, you know, they,

they do fight.

I will tell you this is just
my own personal opinion.

I have met there's some parts
of the allegiant management structure

that are amazing.

Like if you look at like some
of their predictive maintenance stuff,

I mean they're, they're
industry leading.

They do stuff there that we
don't see at a lot of other carriers.

Were they forced to do that
though, because at one point where

they didn't have the most in
flight emergencies out of any airline.

It may be so you may, you may
be right.

I mean, that's a very fair question.

I, I don't know.

But they, they definitely are,
are leading in a lot of those areas.

Maybe by necessity, you know,
that very well is possible.

But then on the other side of
it, they just, you know, they, they

kind of had this.

Do you remember the old 88 and
what was it?

80, 88.

Like, you know, I'll buy 80
hours for 80,000 a year in the MD

80.

Yeah, they call it the 80, 80,
80 anything.

And that's kind of what their
business model was when they first

came into existence, you know,
and way below what other carriers

are paying.

And, and so.

But they were enough surplus
of a pilots that they were able to

make it happen.

Well, then we went through the
pilot shortage, you know, Very much

so.

And I don't know how they were
able to retain pilots.

They do certain things though,
like they have this outstation basing,

which is very, very different.

So instead of having, I mean,
they also have large hubs, but, but

instead of, say, you being
based in Las Vegas, you know, maybe

you're based in, I don't know,
Milwaukee or maybe you're based in

random places.

Yeah, right.

Places.

Yeah.

And you have to live there
because commuting into a place like

that is a nightmare because
you're looking at just a couple carriers

a couple times a day.

So, so it's like anything is,
you know, you're in.

Sure.

Call reserve, which is, which
is really bad when you don't live

in your, when you live in the base.

It's maybe not always the best thing.

But it's a piece of cake.

Right, so.

So that's the same thing.

So maybe during these, maybe
during this transition when they

went to this outstation basing
maybe there were enough pilots that

lived in those bases, they're
like, you know what?

I know I'm not making quite as
much, but I'm home every day.

I just do an out and back.

I'm home with my kids every night.

I'm making an okay wage, I'd
like to make more, of course.

And you know, so I think
that's kind of how they survived.

They found this like labor
niche where, you know, they found

people that wanted to, you
know, and you know how it is once

you get kids, there's.

You start raising, you put
roots in that community, there's

zero chance you're going to
want to go move to New York.

Exactly.

I mean, that's kind of the
previous place that I worked at.

They kind of count on that too.

They find people that want to
live in very obscure areas.

And yes, if you live in
Casper, Wyoming or wherever it is,

it's like your opportunity to
commute is, I mean Casper, you could

probably get to Denver pretty
easily, but you know what I mean,

Anaconda, Montana, someone
would live there.

It's like you're people in Grand.

There's people in Grand Forks
that work for your former company.

They're friends of mine.

They just drive down to Fargo,
which is an hour away.

That's one of the, one of the
approved airports.

They love it because they came
from the airlines and they had to

commute everywhere and they
love it.

They can just show up at the
gate and not worry that they're going

to get to work that day.

And your commuting day counts
on your schedule.

Right.

So there are big advantages
for that.

There's no doubt.

But yeah, that's one of their
labor niche variables.

Right.

You want to live in Casper, Wyoming.

There you go.

This is one way to do it.

Just on as an aside, not to go
off on a tangent, but I do have a

good friend at your former
carrier and, and his plan, I don't

know if he's actually go
through it, but he and his wife are

going to get an RV and I guess
you can change your domicile city

every so often.

And that's what they're going
to do.

Every week in the summer.

Every what?

Every week.

Every seven days you can begin.

You have to begin and end
every week in the same place.

But every, every seven days
you have to give him a seven day

notice to change your base.

That's hysterical.

Well, think about that.

So he's going to take his RV
with his wife, they don't have kids

and they're just going to go
from, go say in Albuquerque during

the summer for a few weeks,
just find a campground and he's going

to, you know, commute out of there.

And, and I mean that's amazing
if you think about it.

You'd never be able to do that
without commuting, you know, at a

large other carrier.

Some people live on sailboats
and they'll sail across the country

and they'll.

Yeah, those Meet the boat up.

I need to bring, I need to
release an episode more updated about

like pros and cons or maybe
not pros.

And cons.

But just like, like why I
fully left and kind of like where

I stand eight months later.

I would do it.

After you're off short call.

There you go.

Yeah, after I'm off probation.

Yeah, well, that.

But just, just because you and
I both know commuting into short

call is literally the worst
assignment you can get in any.

I guess.

I guess the worst would be if
you guys have any kind of semblance

of ready reserve or on, you
know, where you have to dress up

and sit in a.

No, see, we used to have that
on my.

That was the worst commuting into.

We used to call it ready reserve.

Every courier calls it system.

United calls it field standby.

They have different names for it.

But that was the worst.

But the second we're a close
second to that was commuting into

short call.

And man, is that just nasty.

I will say with everything.

And this might kill the need
for the episode with everything that

like being on short call for
longer than I thought.

Hiring freezes.

I'm still very happy that I
made the decision.

Whether that's me just
focusing on more of the long term

of why this decision was made.

Because there's nothing.

I mean the reason, the reason
to leave was for future self.

Right.

Was for down the road.

Both of them in the meantime
weren't perfect.

Like being junior at an
airline for an extended period of

time isn't the most amazing
experience in some cases.

Some like.

Right.

I mean it's really not too bad.

It's just the schedule that is
in front of me is a lot different

than the schedule I was used
to and just getting used to what

it is and hoping for hiring to
start and hoping for it to get better.

But 100% would do it again,
would come back just the ORCA is

so much easier.

Like it's crazy.

Like the just turning left
just I mean flying one to two legs,

having 16 or 25 hours off.

I had 16 hours off and I'm
just like, this is amazing.

I don't know what to do.

And everyone's like 16.

That's it.

Like, dang.

I'm like, that was the most I
ever had.

Right?

Oh, I know.

My wife loves the.

In the winter, like the Cancun
and some of the Caribbean over especially

you get like a 24, 36 hour overnight.

I yeah, I totally get that.

So.

And just as an example, you
know, like we were talking off air,

you know, for every person
that's on short call, there's a person

really loving life that's a
little more senior on the other side

of that.

And, you know, she's got a
little bit of seniority now in Chicago.

Not.

Not like super seniority, but
pretty good seniority.

And, you know, she.

She literally was.

She wanted Christmas and New
Year's off so we could go hang out,

and she just was able to bid
it because she had the seniority.

So she was off from the 21st
until, like, the 6th.

And it was just part of a
regular PBS scheduling.

And so there's a lot to be
said for that.

And by the way, just as an
aside, a note for all other.

I don't know if Delta does this.

I'd have to look at their
contract, but at this particular

carrier.

I know I probably mentioned
it, but I'm going to pretend I haven't.

They pay people now.

They pay people now.

5 extra hours if you work on Christmas.

5 extra hours if you work On
Christmas Eve.

5 extra hours you work on New Year's.

People like working those.

It's gone senior.

Yeah.

Working on Christmas has gone
senior at this carrier.

Isn't that cool?

Crazy.

So there's.

To me, it's a good solution.

Wasn't senior enough this
year, but yeah.

Yeah.

The good news is I got.

They awarded our vacation
weeks and one of my vacation weeks,

my.

My kid's birthday is really
close to Christmas, but I was able

to get the vacation.

I should be able to get both
his birthday and Christmas off with

my one vacation week.

So that's not bad.

I vowed to myself that I'm
gonna do everything I can to not

get fired and make every
Christmas I can.

Yeah.

For the time being.

Right.

When kids leave, you know,
when they.

When they're doing their own thing.

Maybe Christmas makes sense
because you want to help out younger

families as well.

Because that's part of it is.

Is giving back.

Right.

When.

When you have the young kids,
I mean, everyone you fly with, everyone's

like, dang, I'm sorry.

You know, like, at least you
get the money.

But it's like, oh, I'd rather
not watch my kid open presents over

FaceTime.

But that's not a soapbox.

It's just reality.

Like, I'm not trying to ask
for any sympathy or anything like

that.

Kind of.

Moving on from this, we have a
little bit more to touch on.

What's an update with regional hiring?

I know a lot of the regional
hiring was kind of just set off of

the backlog that's happening
over at the airlines.

Is that or not?

Sorry, not at the airlines,
but at the majors, at the legacies.

Is that still the case?

I know there was, was there.

Was it region a bunch?

I can't remember what regional
CEO said that, but he's like, we

are so heavy with fos.

Like, we have so many fos,
he's kind of saying that they're

like a dime a dozen.

I don't know if you remember
that article that came out with that

statement, but what's an update?

Has anything changed?

No, that's, that's true.

Hiring has slowed down.

It hasn't stopped, but it's
definitely slowed down.

And you do still see
advertisements at, like, you know,

Commute Air and Piedmont, some
of the others, you know, advertising,

you know, the, the direct
entry captain stuff, you know, the,

the bonuses.

So those still exist.

So that's exactly right.

There, there is a regional
captain shortage, per se.

You know, that.

That's, that's what the,
that's what the big issue is.

So I have noticed, like at
und, for instance, I can talk about

this.

There were maybe about 180
kids that applied to be a flight

instructor here, which is
about normal.

And they took 45 of them.

Oh, dang.

And like, like three years
ago, it would have been.

There would have been maybe 70
people applying, and they would have

taken, you know, 68 of them.

You know, I mean, it's, it's,
it's just that.

So, so it has gone all the way downstream.

And again, you know, it's like
we've talked about four.

There's a pendulum, right?

We saw, we, you know, during
the beginning of COVID we saw the

pendulum where there was.

They were talking furloughs,
there was no hiring going on for

a while.

And then the pendulum swung
and the doors open and everyone and

their brother was getting hired.

And now we're kind of back
into the middle again.

And so you are seeing.

You're not seeing everybody
get hired.

You're seeing that you are
seeing a slowdown in things.

And it's probably frustrating
if you're a person that two years

ago your buddy got hired at,
you know, a regional and then a year

and a half after that went
right to Delta.

I mean, I, I know for a fact
there's some students out of und.

I'm sure there was many out of
Ohio State, Amber Rudd and all the

others that basically left
when they got the restricted ATP

minimums, went right to work,
did sometimes, didn't even upgrade

in about a year, year and a
half and went right to their major

airline.

Dang.

And I mean, so There were
people that were two to three years

out of college that were in
the right seat at all the carriers

at Delta, United, American,
which is crazy if you think about

that.

So if you're a student at one
of these places and you see that,

you're going to say to
yourself, and now all of a sudden

you don't see that anymore.

It's a little more traditional
where you're going to have to maybe

put in a couple years at your regional.

It looks all of a sudden like
the sky's falling because it's very

different from your reality before.

Well, I think what the problem
is too is when you're being recruited

like that, you're being sold
that dream team, right?

Like you're, it's kind of like
college recruiting, right?

You're being sold, you're the
only one we want.

You're going to go to the NFL
just like this person went to the

NFL.

You're going to make the
richest contract, you're going to

have the best life ever.

Reality of the aviation
industry, it is not always the case,

right?

Like that's what's important
about, I mean listening to this,

yes, but knowing the history
of the airlines, knowing the history

where we were, where we're
going, that things change.

And it's all about timing.

And yes, it might be great
right now but, or it might be bad

right now, however you want to
look at it, wherever stage you're

in, it's not always going to
be like that.

Things change, things get
better, things get worse.

It all mellows out and it
starts to even out.

And your career, each career
should hopefully kind of stay in

the line.

Obviously if you're super
junior, you're hired, you're going

to be up here the whole time
because you're going to be flying

to 787 in like by 38, which
will just absolutely insane to think

about.

But yeah, it's just sold
dreams, right?

Believing 100% what you're
told by the recruiter because it

sounds so great.

You're like, yeah, you're
going to pay off your loans in a

year with the money you're making.

Then you're going to go to
American, Delta, United and you're

going to be a captain on a
seven, three in two years.

Like it's like, it's crazy.

But just seeing those not come
to fruition and I think it was kind

of a wake up call for a lot of
the younger generation that just

assumed and thought that this
will never happen again, that it

could never happen.

Again.

And I mean, I was kind of one
of those in Covid, too.

I remember I had a podcast
with my dad where, like, I just don't

really see how it could get
back to what it was.

Like, I just, I kind of bought
into Doug Parker kind of saying,

like, we will always make
money, no matter what.

Every year we're going to make money.

Right?

Right.

We are always going to make money.

And it's just that mindset.

I'm not saying he's wrong and
what he's saying, I mean, that I

don't follow.

I kind of stay in my own lane.

But, like, it just that
mindset and believing that it's never

going to come back or the bad
times will never come back is a little

bit dangerous in this industry.

Like, always keep in the back
of your head, like, all right, that's

what it is.

Now.

I don't know what it's gonna
be like in five years, but I can

only make my decision based
off the information I have right

now and what has happened in
the past.

That's right.

That's the critical lesson.

And that's a question that
comes up to me all the time from

students.

You know, well, what happens
if this airline goes bankrupt?

What happens?

Well, you don't know.

You know, I think maybe I've
mentioned this to you before.

I look at my dad's career.

He was hired at Northwest
airlines in the 60s, but continental,

he was furloughed from
Northwest, Continental hired him,

then Northwest recalled.

Recalled him.

And he didn't go back because
at the time, Continental was the

best, was way better in terms
of, you know, contract stuff.

Had he went back to Northwest,
he would have retired, like number

10 on the seniority list.

Left seat of the 747, 400, you
know, and just loving life.

Instead, he went and got.

He was put into a strike, you
know, 15 years later and lost his

job.

I mean, mean, so you just.

What you said is exactly right.

And that's what I always tell people.

You just make the best
decision for you based on the information

that you have.

You don't know what's going to happen.

You know, like you said
earlier, sometimes there's a carrier

that's, you know, the.

Seems to be lead.

The leader in the clubhouse
seems to be the.

The place everyone wants to
work, but then give it five to 10

years, it's going to be
somebody else.

You just don't know.

And also, it's such a personal
decision on where people go and work.

You just.

It because what might work for
you would be a place that would never

work for me, you know, like,
there's people that tell my wife

she has to drive an hour to
Fargo, hop on a plane and go to Chicago.

And there are a lot of people
say, man, you know, that's planes,

trains and automobiles to get
to work.

That just sucks.

But that's her reality, and
that works for her, and that's her

choice, you know, and it's
just right now that's, you know,

she's living her dream.

So it's just such a personal
decision, but you can only go with

what the information that you have.

Have.

You're exactly right.

That's absolutely best piece
of advice.

Yeah, it's tough, right?

It's hard to make, especially
in the moment when it's happening.

Like, it's so personal and you
take it so personal, which is hard

not to take personal and be
upset about it.

But you got to pivot.

You got to figure it out.

That's why we always talk
about how you need a plan B.

I probably haven't preached
that as much as I have in the past,

but Plan B is a very important plan.

Bs don't have to be a
different job completely.

It could just be, all right,
this isn't working out here, or this

place is going to business.

What's another airline I can
go to?

Do I have to go back to regional?

Do I try NetJets?

Do I try Flexjet?

There was a lot of people in
2000s, you know, the lost gen, the

lost decade that they want to
say that found their way to NetJets

and have made a very good
career for themselves.

Some people are very happy
there, some people aren't very happy

there.

Just depends on who you talk about.

But there's many kind of, like
you said, there's many jobs out there

that aren't necessarily what
you went to become a pilot to have

and to become.

But you can find that it works
very well for your life and it does

enough.

And you make a lot of money still.

Like, I mean, you're still
going to make good money where you

go to one of these airlines or
NetJets or Flexjet.

You're still going to do it, right?

But yeah, that's enough for
that soapbox right there.

But it's important.

Yeah, it's important because
it's very hard and very tough.

What else do we have?

Last thing I think we want to
talk about Lost youtxt.

Yeah, this is crazy.

So two more things.

Southwest pipe pilot, the
thing that's so when I say Southwest

pilot and you.

But we both knew what we're
talking about just came out yesterday.

Maybe.

Was it today yesterday?

Today got caught.

TSA agent smelled alcohol on him.

They got him at the gate.

He failed a sobriety test.

Dui, or is it a dui?

They technically did charge
him with a dui, but if they moved

it up to a felony, obviously.

Because is it like, is it
almost attempted manslaughter?

Like, I mean, it could.

It really depends on what the,
what the prosecutor does.

Yeah, and I hate to gossip on
stuff like this because obviously,

like, I don't know what's
going on in this guy's mind, obviously.

Terrible decision to do this.

I was texting with, with, with
a buddy that's pretty high up at

a certain airline.

Not that airline as.

I just want that to be put out there.

But it was just like, hey, if,
like, if you ever think that the

person you're flying with,
like, you need to make sure they,

they call the right people
before it goes down so they can have

some protection and try to get better.

Because as a person, that
person obviously needs, I mean, maybe

he never needs to fly an
airplane again, but if he has the

ability to improve his life by
going down the union protected action

or the union protected side,
maybe that's a good idea as well.

But I mean, you got to do what
you got to do to make sure that pilot

doesn't fly that airplane.

And they usually ask that
question in interviews, right?

Like, all right, yeah, you
smell alcohol, what are you going

to do?

It's like, well, you're not
going to cause a scene and be like,

he's drinking, you know, but
you can't let that flight go.

You cannot let that flight go.

Absolutely right.

Yeah.

You have to do everything you can.

Well, let's talk about that
for just a brief second because this

is an important thing.

And I did run into this in the
labor union.

At the time we had 3,000 pilots.

And every year I'd say two,
three to four pilots would be kind

of caught up in some kind of a
situation like this.

Not necessarily being caught
by TSA or, but, but, but admitting

that they had an alcohol problem.

Look, in my opinion, anyone
that shows up to fly a 121 carrier

that's inebriated is probably
has an abuse problem.

Right?

Anyone that would take that
kind of a chance, you know, it's

not something that just, it's
not a one time thing.

It's probably something that
just was normalized.

And that's the Scary thing is
that this is not like if this happened,

this is not the first time
this has happened for sure.

Can't say that for sure.

Statistically.

Wow.

Yeah.

But yeah, it's just terrifying.

So if you are one of those
pilots out there that has.

Because pilots are people too.

We suffer just like any other
segment of the population.

If you have an alcohol
problem, you have what's called the

HIMSS program.

It's a medical program and
it's a union protected if you're

at a union carrier.

But it's also now available
outside of union, actually any professional

pilot through the faa, they've
set these up.

There's hems doctors now all
over the country.

Used to be only four or five
in the country, but now there's a

lot.

But the trick is, and the key
is you have to admit that you have

a problem before you're caught.

Caught.

If you're caught and then you
say, oh, I have a problem, there's

nothing anyone can do.

And I will tell you this story.

I can tell you the story
because I can completely de.

Identify the person.

But when I was mec chairman at
American Eagle, I got a call from

a captain and he said.

And I knew him because I'd
flown with him.

And he said, jim, he goes,
they want me to blow in a breathalyzer.

What should I do?

I said, well, blowing a breathalyzer.

He goes, well, that's going to
be a problem.

I said, if that's going to be
a problem, it's going to be a problem.

I said, there's nothing I can do.

He goes, well, I need help.

I want to have help.

I go, I'm not going to say his name.

But I said, I said, it's too late.

You have to ask for help before.

I said, there's nothing anyone
in the world, anyone can do.

So he blew the.

He delayed for a little bit.

When you delay too long, it
becomes a refusal, which is just

as bad.

He finally blew in the
breathalyzer and he blew a 0.03.

As you know, the FAR is 0.04.

And so he lived to fight
another day.

He was pulled off the flight
because he obviously had alcohol

in his system.

But he was not.

It was not against the rules.

We were able to get him into
the program at that point because

he hadn't officially been caught.

He dodged a bullet that day.

But like you said, and by the
way, the FO is the one that caught

him.

The fox called me later and
said, I'm really sorry, man.

I go, you don't have to be
sorry for anything.

It was this guy that put you
in that.

So you did nothing wrong.

I mean, it would have been
better to try to confront him and

say, go call in sick.

Go, go, go get help now.

But you couldn't let that
plane go.

And nobody's, if anyone gives
you any crap, you come talk to me.

And no one gave him any crap
because most line pilots will understand

that.

And by the way, it hasn't
happened in a while, but the FAA

will prosecute first officers
or captains if the other person was

drunk.

And the FAA and their wisdom,
I completely disagree with this.

But there's been famous cases
where they have gone after the other

pilot saying that pilot should
have known that they were flying

with a drunkard.

I completely disagree with
that because it's.

A tough thing to prove.

It's very tough thing.

Next time we talk, I'll try to
bring up that instance.

But, but so, so the point is
everyone's in a bad situation when

someone decides to do this, right?

And so, so if you're someone
out there that needs help, get the

help.

You don't have to destroy your career.

There are options.

And I will tell you, the HIMSS
program is extremely high success

rate, very high success rate.

In a nutshell, you go through
a very specialized.

You get removed from the line
temporarily, but you still get paid.

You go through a very
specialized treatment.

The recidivism rate on that is
less than 10%.

You are subject to a massive
amount of breathalyzers and drug

tests from that point forward.

And you do have to go to a
special hymns doctor, you know, when

you go to get your medical.

But that's it.

You still get your career.

And I, I will tell you, I
personally know people that have

made it through that program.

They've turned their lives
around and they're fine, they're

great.

They're great people to fly with.

So, so you can turn that, what
might be a big low in your life right

now into a positive and
improve yourself.

I just wanted to get that
message out there, Justin, because

a lot of people don't realize
that that exists for sure.

I mean, moral of the story is
if you ever find yourself in a bad

situation like that, don't go
to work the call in sick, do whatever

you can.

Don't put the FL in that
position, the flight attendants in

the message and the gate age
in that position.

The tsa, like anyone, don't
put them in the position to do that

because they are going to do
that because what is important is

the fact that you should not
be operating that flight.

And you are putting everyone's
career at like everyone at the airline,

everyone in aviation, like,
everyone, like, I mean, accident

happens.

They could start proving that
this is a reason why single pilot

needs to go up or, I mean, I
don't know.

One, I don't, maybe not that,
but it's just like things happen

and it's just, it's just so bad.

Man, I'm, I'm glad the flight
didn't go off, obviously.

Right.

But what's scary is just
thinking that they've done it before,

someone else has done it before.

Who are we missing and what
are they going to do to try to make

sure this doesn't happen again?

The last thing to kind of talk
about is what just happened with

almost a Sky, sky, sky X.

But SpaceX with their rocket
exploding, shut down Florida.

Yeah.

Which is crazy.

I mean, I remember I was, I
was online.

I can't believe.

I don't know it was a form or
what, but it's like, yeah, I mean,

thankfully we had enough fuel
because we had to route all the way

to the south of Cuba to go
around to get to where we needed

to go.

And so, I mean, that's a good
little stretch there.

But you, I mean when you think
and you see the cool videos, you

know there's a bunch of cool
videos of people posting this stuff

online.

You're like, wow, that's so cool.

But you're not thinking about
what's going up front where the FAA

scrambling like, all right,
what is the radius?

And let's multiply that by two
so we make sure we don't get anyone

close because that has to come back.

And if that hits an aircraft,
that's going to be.

Do you imagine?

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Could you imagine that hits an aircraft?

Yeah, no, that's exactly right.

And you know, the lesson there
is, is it does go to show that even

though our system can be
fragile in terms of getting people

from point A to B, you know,
we, we know that we're sensitive

to weather, natural disasters
and really again, very much unpredicted

things like, you know, space
explosions and you know, debris falling

back, it does go to show
there's some sensitivity there.

But on the other side of it,
the thing that I, my takeaway from

that is it's very interesting
to me that they actually had a plan,

plan that the FAA had already.

They, they had tabletop this
and they, you know, not necessarily

in Florida, but they, there's
a There's a.

I've never been there because
you have to have top secret clearance

to get there.

There's some FAA employees
that have this type of clearance.

It's.

It's the fourth floor in this
building, and I've been to the base

of the building.

It's.

It's in DC, but that's, that's
like the nerves after 911 it was

formed.

It's like the nerve center
that handles all these really odd

things, you know, everything
from terrorist threats, jets, all

the way down to things like this.

And they really, you know, it
was unbelievable.

They had a shutdown.

Florida.

It's very inconvenience for
all the people there, but they did

keep it safe.

And they did have a plan that
they put in place.

And I found that kind of interesting.

That's the first time I'd
ever, from this side of it, seen

that they actually.

Oh, okay.

Space explosion, debris landing.

Let's execute plan 42 Alpha or
whatever it is.

Yeah.

Alien invasion.

Space.

Oh, space.

That's in there too, I'm sure.

Yeah, yeah.

SpaceX rocket explodes over Florida.

Okay.

No, that's pretty impressive.

Yeah, no, it's interesting.

It's just things you never
thought about.

And I've always wanted a top
secret clearance, so maybe I can

work my way in and I can get it.

Work your way in?

Yeah.

Actually, I was looking at an administrator.

Not that I was looking at it,
but there was a job posting for an

associate administrator, and
they talked about a even higher clearance.

And I was like, wow.

I, I.

But I do know there is a
section of the FAA that does coordinate

with the Alphabet groups on
terrorist threats, and it formed

after 9, 11.

And so they do, they do get
those intelligence reports, which

I do think are highly classified.

So that's why I think there's
a portion that have to get that.

Yeah.

All right, well, new goal
achieved or new goal is.

It's too late for me.

But, Jim, I appreciate your time.

You know, I.

It's funny because I was.

When I first started, I was
like, all right, yeah, we'll talk

for like 45 minutes.

That's usually where episodes live.

But when I think we got.

I looked down, I was like,
minute 32, and we're still on the

second subject.

And I was like, all right, sorry.

Buckle up, let's go.

No, it's great.

I think it's my fault.

No, not at all.

I mean, the more information,
the better.

It's been a while since we've
done this, so we're long overdue.

For a longer podcast.

I say this every time.

And I mean, both of our
schedules are pretty crazy.

You're running a tech company
and doing all this crazy stuff and

a new job, just trying to survive.

But we do, we do need to do
more episodes, more consistent to

get this out.

But like I said earlier, if
you ever do have any question, obviously

you can email us, you can go
to the website that we talked about,

give us the feedback, let us
know what you like, what you don't

like, what you want to hear,
or if you liked what you heard.

And if you didn't, I'm.

I'm sorry.

But sometimes it's hard to
hear the truth.

Yeah, well, and people may
disagree sometimes.

Some of the opinions.

That's okay.

Free world.

Yeah.

Do what you want to do.

Yeah, yeah, go listen to
another podcast.

No, I'm kidding.

But Jim, I appreciate your time.

It's always great you on the podcast.

I always love talking with you.

I wish you guys the best and
hopefully we'll have you on here

soon.

And next time I talk to you,
maybe I'll be like, dude, I got long

call again.

Go us.

Yeah.

Looking forward to it, Justin.

Thanks for having me.

Yeah, have a good day.

That's a wrap on the state of
the industry.

Thank you so much for listening.

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But AV Nation.

Hope you're having a great day
and as always, happy flying.

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