How Immigration is Changing American Beer

In the ever-evolving world of beer, maintaining a competitive edge can feel like navigating a stormy sea. Dan Kopman, former CEO of Heavy Seas and co-founder of Schlafly Beer, provides a seasoned perspective on the complexities and potential of the brewing industry.

"Early mover advantage is a double-edged sword," Kopman observes, a note of caution in his voice. "It's easy to gain but terribly difficult to maintain." This concept, familiar across various industries, holds particular resonance in the dynamic sphere of craft beer. Companies like Schlafly and Heavy Seas have ridden the initial waves of advantage, setting precedents in the market long before competitors caught wind. However, the real battle lies in sustaining that lead amid a burgeoning crowd of innovative brewers.

Kopman's journey is marked by his significant roles in shaping the beer industry. Notably, he was instrumental in offering acclaimed beers like Young's Pubs' unique brews in London and Schlafly Beer in St. Louis. His broad experience fuels his understanding of the intricate dance between early adoption and lasting impact.

Interestingly, the conversation isn't confined to traditional beer alone. Kopman acknowledges the rising influence of non-alcoholic (NA) beer, a niche that's garnering substantial attention. "Non-alcoholic beer has low penetration in the US compared to other regions," he notes. "But the global growth rate is in the high single digits." This trend suggests an emerging market ripe with possibilities for brewers willing to innovate and cater to changing consumer preferences.

Kopman's insights also extend to broader demographic shifts and their impact on beer consumption. The interplay between immigration patterns and beer sales, for example, underscores the importance of understanding and addressing diverse consumer bases. "Brewers need to broaden their appeal," he advises, highlighting the necessity for cultural inclusivity in marketing strategies.

Moreover, Kopman emphasizes the significance of strategic collaborations and experiential learning. At American University's Kogod School of Business, students engage in capstone projects that transition them into budding consultants. A notable collaboration with Right Proper Brewing Company in DC exemplifies how such partnerships can foster growth and innovation within the industry.

Reflecting on market disruptions, Kopman draws a parallel between the beer industry and the tech world. "Consider the iPhone," he says. "It wasn’t the first smartphone, but it achieved significant volume." Similarly, the NA beer market, while not new, holds potential for substantial growth and mainstream acceptance.

In a rapidly changing market, staying ahead requires a blend of innovation, adaptability, and deep consumer understanding. For Dan Kopman, the journey through the beer landscape is as much about respecting tradition as it is about embracing the new waves of change. His experiences and insights offer valuable lessons for brewers and beer enthusiasts alike, navigating the ever-exciting and often tempestuous waters of the craft beer industry.

Thanks to our monthly supporters

• Josh
• Ellen Daniels
• Juan Deliz
• Mike Lastort
• James Wisnieski
• Brian Minch
• Chris Frome
• Jon Gilgoff
• Sam
• Chip
• Tory Roberts
• Steven M Quartell
• Chris DeLoose
• Lauren Cary
• Amy Crone
• Clifton B
• Scott Pavlica
• Greg Antrim
• jeffrey garrison
• Joshua Learn
• Alexis Smith
• A t
• Dan Goldbeck
• Anthony Budny
• Greg Parnas
• Frank Chang
• Mikahl Tolton
• Kim Klyberg
• Chris Girardot
• Alyssa
• jeffrey katz
• Andrew MacWilliams
• Jamie Jackson
• Meegan
• Mike Rucki
• Jason Tucker
• Nick Gardner
• Amber Farris
• Sarah Ray
• Peter Jones
• Michael Rafky
• Brad Stengel
• Matt Winterhalter
• Bill and Karen Butcher
• Jordan Harvey
• Justin Broady
• Stephen Claeys
• Julie Verratti
• DFA Howie Kendrick

Creators & Guests

Host

Brandy Holder

This southern girl got a late start in the beer world, but with such a bold and intoxicating personality behind the name, booze was destined to be a part of her endeavors.

Host

Jacob Berg

Jake’s beer education began when his dad brought home a 6-pack of Brooklyn Lager in the mid-90s. It was love at first sip.

Host

Jordan Harvey

As a born and raised Georgian, lover of music, and HBCU advocate, Jordan’s affinity for craft beer kicked off after being exposed to the craft beer scene in Pennsylvania and the legendary beer scene in Europe.

Host

Mike Stein

Michael Stein is President of Lost Lagers, Washington, DC’s premier beverage research firm. His historic beers have been served at the Smithsonian’s National Museum of American History and the Polish Ambassador’s residence.

Producer

Richard Fawal

President of DC Beer Media LLC and Publisher of DCBeer.com and The DC Beer Show

What is The DC Beer Show?

The official podcast of DCBeer.com! This is a show about breweries: the business, the beer, the craftspeople who run them and the drinkers who love them. Join us as we speak with brewers, brewery owners, and all kinds of folks involved in the craft beer scene.

Jacob Berg [00:00:05]:
Welcome everyone to the DC Beer show. We are at DC Beer across social media. We'd love to see you DC Beer on Instagram, Facebook, and blue sky less so on Twitter because it's getting weird over there. Mike Stein, what is in your stein?

Michael Stein [00:00:24]:
Thanks, Jake. I'm drinking VAR from Halfway Crooks. It is VAR, and the packaging is wonderful. They say on the packaging, beer pivo, which is check for unfiltered. So I'm keeping it local. I got VAR, which is a Georgia beer, semi local, but I got it at the brew shop. Shout out to Beth and Julie who are Patreon supporters, and they're members of our Patreon. If you don't know, go to patreon.com backslash dcbeer.

Michael Stein [00:00:55]:
Come see about us. Jordan, you traveler, you traveling man on on a jet plane. What's going on in your world? What are you drinking?

Jordan Harvey [00:01:06]:
Hello. Hello. Yeah. Thank you, Stein. It's been a it's been a busy, busy summer. I've been traveling all over. Just the latest was was San Diego. Hopefully, you guys get to hear about that later.

Jordan Harvey [00:01:18]:
But, because it's been so hot out and because I've missed home so much, I'm enjoying some Dennis' Brewing Company Bohemian, excuse me, born Bohemian pills. So it's a Czech style Pilsner. Shout out to Stein. I know you love all things Czech. But, yeah, Jake, what you sipping on tonight, sir?

Jacob Berg [00:01:38]:
So for our resident beer historian, Mike Stein, do you know what significance July 23rd has in the beer calendar?

Michael Stein [00:01:48]:
Is it, international beer guy?

Jacob Berg [00:01:51]:
On July 23rd 1635, sir Nicholas Hulse filed a patent for a smoke free kiln for the drying of hops and malt without touching of smoke. And so on July 23rd, we are recording this on Tuesday, July 23rd, we celebrate Smoke Beer Preservation Day. And so in honor of Fox Farm, having just come into DC, thank you, NRG. Go check them out at the shelter at Sovereign as well. I have the cabin, a 5.3%. Smoked Helles Logger, it is delightful, I would say. Go get you some, Pillsborough, with barbecue. You wanna keep it vegetarian or vegan? Grilled halloumi.

Jacob Berg [00:02:39]:
That's what I did earlier today. Big fan. Brandy, what are you drinking?

Brandy Holder [00:02:44]:
Hi, DC Beer fam audience listening. Before I tell you what I'm drinking, I wanna say happy early birthday to miss Julie Virardi. Her birthday's coming up in August, so shout out to Julia Denizens because you know I love you guys. I am drinking other half, Poetry Snaps. So Poetry Snaps is a rice lager. I'm sure you've had Poetry Snaps. They really crushed the lagers over there at Other Half. But this week, I'm looking forward to tasting some Citra beers because it is Citra Week at other half, and you can go check out all of those citra week beers.

Brandy Holder [00:03:25]:
I think there's, like, 9, 8 or 9 or 10 beers dropping. I want to know what's going on in the beer world because next Thursday is National IPA Day. We got a bunch of beer, celebratory, random holidays, and I'm loving I'm loving the vibes right now. So what we got, JB?

Jacob Berg [00:03:45]:
1st up, Aslan set like a land speed record in the DMV. They dropped an Oktoberfest, their fest beer on July 6th. Today, 26th. Friday today, they're dropping their Scotch ale. So Scotch ale in July. Do you think we should take, like, a hot poker to it and, extra caramelize those malts perhaps at an upcoming Metro Bar events? Okay. The wheels are in motion. Alright.

Jacob Berg [00:04:17]:
But in terms of other stuff that's on the radar, the Olympics coming up. Jordan, what are you watching for?

Jordan Harvey [00:04:23]:
Well, you know, in my younger days I know that's probably funny to hear me say that. But anyway, in my younger days, I was a track athlete. So I'm excited for all of the spring events, specifically the hurdles as I was a hurdler. So I'm looking forward to see what Team USA does. I believe, our swim team and our gymnastics team will make us all proud, and I hope they do so. So, yeah, I'm just just looking forward to all of it, looking forward to kind of the world coming together. Hopefully, it's not as crazy as maybe the past 2 weeks have been, but hopefully it's it's smooth. How about signed, Brian? Are you guys looking forward to anything Olympic related?

Michael Stein [00:04:59]:
Oh, for sure. Both Bluejacket and Atlas are having Olympic specials. So if you're in Navy Yard, Atlas, or on Tinney Street for Bluejacket down in Southeast, go check out the Olympics there. I had, Jake, some of that aforementioned Aslan Festbier. And we also saw Atlas' Festbier at the drafts and crafts event, and I had a can or a sixer of Atlas's Festbier snuck to me. And I have to say that it's really interesting that with the more Munich, Munich, Muenchener Pale Festbier, little hoppy, got a nice kick of the hops, whereas the Atlas to me reminds me more of Maerten, of that multi special. And we just had the beer share, Brandy. Wonderful beer share.

Michael Stein [00:05:50]:
Thank you for hosting us so graciously. Thanks to Bright Proper Brooklyn for hosting us. Brandy, you did a wonderful job there. But I showed some folks the Festbier, and they're like, oh, Festbier on what was it? July 21st, whatever the date was, that Sunday. And I was like, yeah. When was the last time you had an amber lager? And they're like, oh, yeah. I guess it was July 2023. And I was like, yeah.

Michael Stein [00:06:13]:
Amber Lager all year round. Doesn't matter if it's now July. Like, I will have it 12 months, 52 weeks out of the year. Let's go Amber Lager.

Brandy Holder [00:06:23]:
Shout out to Right Proper. Love you guys. Speaking of the beer share, I'm so freaking excited because we had 4 new people come to our our beer share this past weekend. We had Josh come and Juan and his wife, and they are now new Patreon members. They had such a great time. They signed up for Patreon. Shout out to Juan for bringing those banging ass chicken skewers. Those were great.

Brandy Holder [00:06:49]:
We had some good beer as always, and, it was just so nice to see new faces. And and I want you guys to know that if you think you want to come and you might feel nervous, I understand, and I respect that, but you end up having fun. And I'm really thankful. So shout out to Josh and Juan, for being our new Patreon members. And, we look forward to seeing you guys next month at Denizen's. Speaking of, shout out to Denizen's for hosting our August beer share, which is going to be on August 11th, which is gonna be a crazy busy weekend. That's Saturday in August is our women's brew culture club. We're back.

Brandy Holder [00:07:31]:
We took July off, so we're back with Alyssa at Lyon Hall. So you know what? Even though July is my birthday month, I'm ready for August, y'all. I'm just ready to move I'm just ready to move on.

Michael Stein [00:07:42]:
Well said. It is Leo Virgo season that we are getting into. It's barrel and flow. It's women's brew culture club at Lyon Hall. It's the DC Beer share at Denizen's.

Jordan Harvey [00:07:56]:
One other event that may not have been mentioned, and if it was, just to reiterate, international beer day will be next Friday. So it's a number of events happening in and around DC. So check out DCBureau dotcom for our events and all the updates there, as well

Michael Stein [00:08:10]:
as some awesome stories coming out. We also have the Kolschfest at Bluejacket on July 28th from 12

Michael Stein [00:08:17]:
to 3. Banner.

Michael Stein [00:08:18]:
Yeah. So that's happening the day after tomorrow, July 28th. There is going to be some action further in the week at Churchkey on, July 31st, a week of drinking in 1 night, cycle brewing at Churchkey. Cycle out of Florida is bringing some of their favorite stouts, imperial stouts, and barley wines. Not one, but 2 different barley wines. So, yeah, check out Churchkey on Wednesday, the last day of July.

Jacob Berg [00:08:49]:
No. No. No. No. We wanna skip that and go straight to the 1st day of August when at Shelter, Bierstadt Lagerhaus. Oh. Shelter. Every you know, get your get your slow pour on, a lovely Dunkel, a lovely Helles as well.

Jacob Berg [00:09:05]:
They also know everything. Yep.

Jordan Harvey [00:09:08]:
And see

Jacob Berg [00:09:08]:
who they

Michael Stein [00:09:09]:
are. Ashley Carter. Yeah. Technical editor of Modern Lager Beer.

Jordan Harvey [00:09:14]:
Yes.

Michael Stein [00:09:14]:
Should you enjoy Modern Lager Beer by Jack and Joe, thank Ashley Carter of Bierstadt Lagerhaus, and then go try her beers.

Jacob Berg [00:09:22]:
Yeah. But I wanna get as far away from lager as possible for a minute. Jordan, you were just in San Diego where I guess there's lager, but mostly what I think of is I think of IPA. What really stood out in your travels over there?

Jordan Harvey [00:09:38]:
Well, I don't know if you know if I have enough time. Yeah. It's it's it's really an awesome place. I mean, it was chill. Like, weather was perfect as as one would expect, but, I'll just list off the places I was able to hit, and then I'll close out quickly with the one that really stood out. But I was able to go to Catch. Catch is a, they brew beer, but they're mostly known for their food and their fish tacos, which are excellent by the way. But I tried all of the beers that I could there, and actually their crispy boys came out really well.

Jordan Harvey [00:10:08]:
Caught Amplified Brewing by the water. I went to their Pacific Beach location. So just kinda had some beers and, you know, enjoyed the boardwalk. Of course, I started with North Park. I mean, no one's got us there. When I walked in, 2 of the guys in the back had other half shirts. I was like, I was like, I feel like I'm I feel like I haven't left, the East Coast yet. But yeah.

Jordan Harvey [00:10:30]:
So North Park was really great. They had some collabs coming out with a burial down in North Carolina and had a couple of other collapse that they that they were dropping. Went to Fall Brewing just briefly, just kinda just poking my head in there. I was trying to hit as many as possible, but I finished with Pure, which was my favorite. And if not just for like the quality of beer, like, specifically the North Park location, like it was just beautiful. Like I got there around, like, 3 in the afternoon, sent around, like, 2 or 3 hours. And it was just it was just chill. Like, it was just the music was excellent.

Jordan Harvey [00:11:06]:
Like, staff was really nice. Obviously, the beers are great. So I would say Pure probably they they took the cake. So it was a great trip. Definitely, folks, if you haven't been out there, I would recommend it. Not just a great place for beer, but all things holistic. I think we should have our next DC Beer retreat in San Diego. But, yeah, up next is, Barrel and Flow.

Jordan Harvey [00:11:23]:
And I hope to bring back some awesome tales of awesome people and awesome beer with my lovely co attendee, Amber, because it's gonna be she and I. You guys right now is Paunchy, but she and I will be holding her down for the the DC Beer fair.

Jacob Berg [00:11:38]:
Our guest is also well traveled. I know him best from his work at Schlafly, but he's no stranger to DC. He's at American University. He's been at Heavy Seas before that. Please welcome the show, Dan Kopman. Stein, take it away.

Michael Stein [00:11:53]:
Thanks, Jake. I'm here with Dan Kopman, who is professional lecturer at American University's Kogod School of Business and a senior policy adviser to the Worldwide Brewing Alliance who specializes in studying global shifts in the alcohol industry. Dan, welcome to The DC Beer Show.

Dan Kopman [00:12:11]:
Thank you for having me. Happy to be here.

Michael Stein [00:12:14]:
It's wonderful to have you here. So I wanna let our listeners know, Dan, you most recently before academia worked as CEO at Heavy Seas. But before that, you worked in Missouri and in England. Would our listeners, who, of course, are global citizens and have lived and traveled all over the world, would they have had your beer or beer you brewed in, say, London from 1983 to 1991 or, say, Saint Louis from 1991 to 2017?

Dan Kopman [00:12:45]:
Yes. That's the short answer. Yes. So if you lived in London in the 19 eighties, if you lived in London today, you would find hundreds of Young's Pubs in London, and you would be familiar with Young's Original, Young's Special, Young's Winter Warmer, those beers. Many Young's pubs, the pubs are very popular. And then in Saint Louis, yes, I was the cofounder of Schlafly Beer. So if you had found yourself even at the airport just changing planes in the Southwest terminal or the American Airlines terminal, we had pubs in those in those terminals. So you would have you would have had a a pint of Schlafly parallel there even today.

Michael Stein [00:13:25]:
Yes. That's wonderful. So our listeners will now know. But I wanna get a little more granular. As we mentioned, you're at American University's Kogod School of Business, and I had heard you discussing on another podcast about some of the experiential learning projects for the students at AU. Can you tell us a little bit about some of those projects and the exciting work you're doing at Kogod?

Dan Kopman [00:13:51]:
So the course that I helped coordinate, I coordinate the capstone, experiential learning project. The capstone class is a strategy class in which all of our seniors take that as one of their last classes. And part of that is a consulting project. So we work with different companies, big and small, some in the DC area, some others around the world. And we identify problems that those companies are experiencing, and then the students spend a semester working on those problems as consultants. So students move from being students to consultants through the process. So it's a great learning experience for them, and we hope to, at the end of the day, provide actionable advice for the client. So for example, we did do a a project with Right Proper Brewing Company in DC.

Dan Kopman [00:14:49]:
And if there are other breweries in DC that are interested in the capstone consulting project, then by all means, send me an email. It's [e-mail]. You know? And experiential learning is a is a big part of the business school experience for both undergraduate and graduates.

Michael Stein [00:15:11]:
I would strongly encourage folks to be in touch. I'm wondering, you talk a good bit about early mover advantage. When you were in Schlafly in Saint Louis, there was some early mover advantage, and the same with heavy seas. In Maryland, they had an IPA early sort of in the IPA wave that's still cresting. I'm wondering either locally or even globally, because I know you work a lot in the inter in international spaces and other countries on other continents, The early mover advantage I see applied to locally in DC brewers like DC Brau who put a seltzer, a canned seltzer on the market in 2019. They just put DC's first can NA beer on the market, which is a big deal as we've seen the proliferation of NA beer. But can you tell us a little bit about early mover advantage? And if you can, either look into your crystal ball and and see what's coming down the pike or or talk a little bit about some of those early mover advantages you've seen in your experiential time.

Dan Kopman [00:16:08]:
So early mover advantage is intuitively exactly what it is. You're you're one of the you're fortunate. You're lucky. You're smart. One of those things to be an entrepreneur in a market where you're moving into a segment, a category at a time when others really aren't. And so you have that 1st mover or early mover advantage. It doesn't it doesn't guarantee success. It it provides a temporary, what I call, competitive advantage for a company that does it well.

Dan Kopman [00:16:46]:
The question is then is how do you sustain that competitive advantage? That's the harder part. That's the much harder part. And that early mover advantage can last a very short period of time, or it can last a long time. So if you think back to the craft beer business before the term craft beer existed, there were brewers like ourselves, Schlafly in Saint Louis, one of the first couple 100 craft breweries in the United States. We had an early mover advantage, especially in our local market. Now our local market was unique because it was the home of Anheuser Busch. So we had that early mover advantage for a very long time, say, 1991 all the way until 2008. We were pretty much on our own, and so that gave us a really significant competitive advantage in the craft market for quite a long period of time.

Dan Kopman [00:17:46]:
But I would say that once the competitors appeared, it got hard fast. Right? And I remember back to it was, I think, a beer institute meeting in Saint Louis, and Gary Fish, the founder of Deschutes, one of the founders of Deschutes, was in Saint Louis. And we were talking about this issue, and he he was saying, so what do you do what are you gonna do when there's others? And I said, well, there aren't others at the moment. This was well before 2008. And so it's really a David and Goliath type approach that we took to having that advantage. And then with the sale of Anheuser Busch to INBEV, things changed where there were now other breweries in Saint Louis. But Gary got a real taste of this early on because in Oregon, there were so many more brewers in addition to Deschutes that started throughout the 19 nineties. There was a bit of a shakeout, if you remember.

Dan Kopman [00:18:39]:
So that's early mover advantage. Early mover advantage is often often coincides with early adopters. So when I talk about early adopters, those are the consumers within an innovation cycle that are your first consumers. Right? I used to describe it as I know every drinker because they all came into our pub because, honestly, we only sold beer over our own bar for the 1st 2 years in Saint Louis, 91 to roughly 93. Because, rightly, for for all the very good reasons, most bars in Saint Louis didn't wanna sell a non Anise Busch beer. The brewery was too good to most bars in Saint Louis to to sort of, you know, rock that boat. So it often is associated with that, but, again, the the easy part is getting a competitive advantage by having early mover advantages. The hard part is keeping it.

Michael Stein [00:19:33]:
That's very well said. Easy to get, but it can be lonely at the innovation or progressing forward top of the mountain, and then there's no guarantee. So, yeah, I'm wondering about that in terms of, THC or cannabis based beverages because I've talked to some brewers. You know, they feel like, okay. They've done well with hard seltzer or making a product, but, of course, they don't wanna break the law. They're, judicious brewers, so they're waiting on legislature effectively.

Jacob Berg [00:20:04]:
Legislator.

Michael Stein [00:20:05]:
Yeah. And this is a big what if question, so

Jordan Harvey [00:20:08]:
Yeah.

Michael Stein [00:20:09]:
Pre preemptive apology. But the question you know, we've seen Athletic Brewing Company in the NA space, and I'm kind of drawing a parallel between NA and potentially THC bev. We've seen athletic go from a few 1000 barrels to, I don't know, maybe 200,000. They were at a 170,000 barrels year before last. Could we see 200,000 barrels of THC seltzer, Beyond beer, bev, whatever, if if the legislative landscape goes the way some people think it will?

Dan Kopman [00:20:39]:
To step back a second, with Beyond beer, you have to separate different products into different segments because they're not all the same. So think about it from a consumer standpoint and think about the concept of something that we teach students about of cognitive dissonance. What I mean by that is in layman's terms where your brain gets twisted. Right? So if you're talking about an innovation such as seltzer or RTD spirits, these are 4 to 5% alcohol beverage 4 to 4 to 5% ABV beverage alcohol products. So from an ethanol standpoint, there's no dissonance for the consumer. There's just a slightly different flavor. So I think you can group all of those RTDs, whether you call it seltzer or spear based RTDs, you can be somewhat agnostic as to where the ethanol comes from. Not entirely because it does matter, And there is there are elements of, you know, you know, how are companies marketing these RTDs? Are they marketing them to try and get them with spirits to to to buy the full strength bottles, or are they marketing them as completely separate brands, like Truly or brands like that? So there's not a lot of dissonance there.

Dan Kopman [00:22:03]:
It's a different flavor. It doesn't taste like beer necessarily, but it's 4 to 5% ABB. THC beverages, that's gonna be a segment of the THC market. So you would need to think about it in that in that context. Now will it it expand the market? Will a beverage version of 5 milligrams of THC expand the market of THC consumers? I don't know. So think I would think about that differently. Nonalcoholic beer presents a completely different challenge for consumers because there's a lot of cognitive dissonance. Right? So you walk into a bar, and you may not want to drink ethanol that night for whatever reason.

Dan Kopman [00:22:49]:
Or you've had a beer, and you don't necessarily want another one. Right? And you see nonalcoholic beer now on the menu, and it's the same price, or it's more, or it's a little bit less. And there's a dissonance there. There's a sort of, oh, hold on. What am I doing? Why am I doing this? I need to get my head around. So the number of consumers that actually are consuming nonalcoholic beer, the number of early adopters is pretty small. So it's a completely different type of innovation, and it's gonna have a completely different growth trajectory as a result. Meaning, like, craft beer back in the nineties where we knew every drinker.

Dan Kopman [00:23:30]:
Athletic, I'm not saying they know every consumer of their product or Heineken 0 0, but it's different. And the number of consumers is different. And so while athletic has that early mover advantage in the United States, they definitely would not have that in Europe. So the the most important thing for your audience to know about nonalcoholic beer in the US is that the number of adopters in the US is the lowest in any region of the world. So the penetration of nonalcoholic beer into the US is quite low. It has started to grow pretty dramatically, but it's well behind. So, for example, there's 50 +1000000 barrels in US terms of nonalcoholic beers sold globally. 25,000,000 of that half of that is Europe.

Dan Kopman [00:24:28]:
The next largest market is the Middle East and and Africa. After that is Latin America and then Asia Pacific, and then finally you get to North America. So the global rate of growth for nonalcoholic beer is in the high single digits. I'd expect that to continue. We're at about 2 a half percent of global beer production, but the, you know, the US is gonna be, I think, a big market, but we need to go from early adopters to the early majority. When we go to the early majority of consumers, then we're gonna see even higher rates of growth. So the to your original question about early mover advantage, we're still there. The companies that are investing now in creating the market are going to have that early mover advantage.

Dan Kopman [00:25:20]:
The question is, will they be able to sustain that competitive advantage? It doesn't always work that way. If you think about smartphones, the iPhone was not the 1st smartphone. Right? The iPhone was launched into a late early majority or almost, you know, a late majority of consumers. And that's why the volume was so big for the iPhone. So, you know, the global brewers are all committed to the market. And when I say global, it's the ones we're familiar with, including the Japanese brewers. They're really committed to the market. So I think it's important if it's something that a DC brewer feels they it it can they they can be effective, in building a market long term, then go for it.

Dan Kopman [00:26:10]:
But it's gonna be pretty the volumes are gonna be small right now, especially if you're only in one market. That's gonna be the big challenge for local brewers getting into NA beer. The volumes will be small because the number of consumers is small right now.

Michael Stein [00:26:27]:
I really appreciate you putting the US into the global context for how many NA beer drinkers we have from from a global market perspective, but then also the idea that there could be great growth, but it will take time and it will not be, oh, let's say, it won't be easy as as all good things worth pursuing are not easy. But it's interesting because I think, you know, I aside from asking you to look into your crystal ball, I I now wanna look back on the past because in DC, we have an interesting story with the barrels sold, specifically, how much beer was sold in 2018 2019. We're talking about over 400,000 barrels. These are this is from the mayor's office. I have a distributor friend who got a report from Bowser's office, and he was letting me know there's about 420,000 barrels in both 2018 and 2019. Obviously, 2020 with the COVID 19 global pandemic, we're down to 303,000 barrels. And in 21, a slight increase, 324,000 barrels. But at the same time, out of those 300,000 plus barrels, DC only brews about, you know, between 3,040,000 barrels annually.

Michael Stein [00:27:44]:
So how would you recommend DC Brewers grow their market, and and what do you see what do you see in in the way of trends and where that might go?

Dan Kopman [00:27:54]:
I think this is really I'm sorry. I was looking at interesting. I was looking at some data this morning on small brewers. The World Brewing Alliance, we have a a UN beer club in the same way that, say, the Brewers Association has a small brewers caucus in DC. We have a a beer club up in New York, made up of the missions, you know, the the missions to the UN. So it it was interesting. If I look at global and I'll come back to DC. I'll I'll bring this back.

Dan Kopman [00:28:22]:
If I look at global data on small brewers versus the large brewers, 15 there's 15 brewers in the world that individually have 1 more than 1% of the global beer volume.

Jordan Harvey [00:28:37]:
Right?

Dan Kopman [00:28:38]:
And and they make up about, call it, 70, 75 percent of global beer volume. So there's still almost 30% of global beer volume is made up by smaller brewers. If I look at the US data, I think it's 13% of US volume is craft. Right? So if we think of them in there roughly, that's roughly the same number. So you cited, I think, about 10% of DC volume is made up by smaller brewers. So that's that's consistent with the national average of, say, 13%. So the you know, that so so if the global data and the country data and the local data are all roughly aligned, then that's that's interesting. And then that that numb those those global numbers haven't moved a lot in the past 4 or 5 years.

Dan Kopman [00:29:31]:
Right? It's been been in that, you know, 10 to 15% of beer volume is smaller brewers. You know, one of the things that I look at really carefully these days is demographic data. So I look at this, especially for a course I teach at at AU on global entrepreneurship. And what I find is what I find interesting is the demographic data on the US versus, say, Europe. The US population right now has the largest number of legal foreign born nationals since the late 1800. 24% of the US population legal was not born in the US. The last time the number was that high was the late 1800, and we can and many people can trace their American heritage back to that that time. Right? So that's quite interesting.

Dan Kopman [00:30:24]:
So then you you sort of say, okay. Where are they coming from? Right? Well, yes. A lot have been coming from Mexico and Latin America over the past 20 years. And is there a correlation between that and the growth of Mexican imports? Probably. I haven't run the regression, but my guess is there's a correlation there. But if you look at where they're coming from now, the in equal numbers, they're coming from China, Mexico, and India. And so I think that is really interesting. The US the average age in the US is 36, 37.

Dan Kopman [00:31:01]:
Average age in Europe is 47. Immigration is is holding that average age down in the US. That's good for brewers. Right? Younger drinkers, more consumption. We've seen a lot of lost volume of ethanol consumption, beer, wine, and spirits in Europe. I have to think that a lot of that is related to the to the increasing average age. So if I'm a local brewer, if you think back, you know, 20 years, things have really changed in terms of the consumer base, you know, the total consumer base. You know, what's my potential market? And I think brewers need to take a step back.

Dan Kopman [00:31:43]:
Even local brewers need to take a step back and say, what's my market, and who am I selling to? Because when you think about the total population of DC and you think about you know, look at the demographics of DC and compare it back to 20 years ago or 10 years ago even. So when a brewer like DC Brauer or Wright Proper or others started, I have a sneaking suspicion sneaky suspicion that the demographic picture looked very different. And so maybe the volumes haven't changed in terms of the amount of beer being sold total, but who's buying it is different. And certain things are growing and certain things aren't. And I think that speaks to maybe what Bart Watson or Bob Pease and others at the Brewers Association, people locally have been saying, that, you know, we need to broaden the appeal of beer from small brewers, beverages from small brewers, and we need to consider who our consumers are. So I think I would start there.

Michael Stein [00:32:50]:
Very well said, Dan. Dan, thank you so much for joining us on the DC Beer Show, and we look forward to seeing you around Friendship Heights.

Dan Kopman [00:32:58]:
Yes. You know, if anyone has questions again about the programs at American University, especially our you know, not just our the academic programs, but the consulting projects and our center for entrepreneurship, the Velourich Center For Entrepreneurship, please do not hesitate to email me. Again, it's [e-mail].

Michael Stein [00:33:17]:
Wonderful. Thanks so much, Dan.

Jacob Berg [00:33:19]:
Thank you, Mike. Thank you, Dan. American University, everyone. Go Eagles. Alright, everybody. Be well. You're watching the Olympics. Again, I think Bluejacket and Atlas, probably the 2 best places to be in terms of beer centric spots.

Jacob Berg [00:33:33]:
We are at DCB across social media. Brandy, take us out.

Brandy Holder [00:33:37]:
Cheers, everybody. Come to the next beer

Brandy Holder [00:33:43]:
share.