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Matt and Sean talk about whether it’s a good idea or not to wait for next gen solar technology, or just pull the trigger and get what’s available today.
Watch the Undecided with Matt Ferrell episode, Why Waiting for Better Solar Costs You More https://youtu.be/w2r9_0NxTW8?list=PLnTSM-ORSgi7uzySCXq8VXhodHB5B5OiQ
Matt and Sean talk about whether it’s a good idea or not to wait for next gen solar technology, or just pull the trigger and get what’s available today.
Watch the Undecided with Matt Ferrell episode, Why Waiting for Better Solar Costs You More https://youtu.be/w2r9_0NxTW8?list=PLnTSM-ORSgi7uzySCXq8VXhodHB5B5OiQ
Follow us on X: @stilltbdfm @byseanferrell @mattferrell or @undecidedmf
Undecided with Matt Ferrell: https://www.youtube.com/undecidedmf
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Creators and Guests
What is Still To Be Determined?
Join Matt Ferrell from the YouTube Channel, Undecided, and his brother Sean Ferrell as they discuss electric vehicles, renewable energy, smart technologies, and how they impact our lives. Still TBD continues the conversation from the Undecided YouTube channel.
Sean Ferrell: Today on Still To Be Determined, we're gonna be diving into something different for a change. That's right, Perovskites. Someday. I don't mean to get dark, but someday I will be dead. And I'm anticipating that carved onto my gravestone will be the phrase, today we're going to be talking about perovskites. Welcome everybody, to Still to be Determined. This is, of course, the follow up podcast to Undecided with Matt Ferrell. I am not Matt Ferrell. I'm Matt's older brother. I am Sean Ferrell. I'm a writer. I write some sci fi, I write some horror. And with me, as always, is the aforementioned Matt, here today to talk about his most recent, which is an analysis of whether or not you should be waiting for the next gen of solar panels to arrive on the market or whether you should jump in now. So, of course we are talking about perovskites. It makes sense. I don't have to be happy about it to have it make sense. So we're going to be talking about perovskites. But before we get into that, Matt, how are you doing today?
Matt Ferrell: I'm happy to talk about perovskites, Sean.
Sean Ferrell: Sure, you're happy as a pig in crap to talk about perovskites, but here I am having to hold up my end of that conversation. I joke, of course. I always enjoy talking to Matt about anything tech related. And I do find these conversations interesting because Matt does a good job of finding a different angle. And today's angle is an interesting one because it is near and dear to my heart, and I think it's near and dear to a lot of our hearts. The question of, is it too soon? Will I miss out, what should I do and when should I do it? So we'll get into that in a minute. But before we do, we always like to take a look at what you have had to say about our previous episodes. So we're going to dive into your comments from episode 297. This was the long form conversation between Matt and Paul Breren. The two of them compared their heat pump situations where Matt has geothermal and Paul has its forced air. Right. It's the.
Matt Ferrell: Yep.
Sean Ferrell: Yeah. So he has a source here. Heat pump. Yeah. And the two of them were comparing costs, monthly costs, expectations, whether they were met or not, as a way of helping guide people who might be making those decisions today about which model might be best for them. And in the comments, we saw a lot of you come in saying you are in the midst of doing exactly that. Like Seb jumped into the comments to say, as a person going through the process of modernizing a house from the early 1910s, it's very informative to hear what Paul has to say. Matt's house is optimized to the point that much of the advice is not applicable. I fear a blower door test. So we've talked before, talked before about the simplicity of insulating, replacing doors, replacing windows. So on a home as old as this, this might be simply my bias because we grew up in a house that was a house from the 1910s. It may not have been a Craftsman house, but it was something pretty darn close. If it wasn't, in fact that. And correct me if I'm wrong, Matt, sometimes those older houses are actually better at being insulated than things that were built a half century later, from the 1950s and 1960s, where fuel costs later on being as low as they were convinced people that it was okay to go cheap with the building of the structure. So sometimes the newer homes are actually harder to insulate and heat and cool properly, as opposed to a home built in the early 90s. Am I right about that or is that just like me revealing my bias of like you like an old home?
Matt Ferrell: I mean, there is some bias there, Sean, but it's, there's, there is a nuance there. Like there is an element to that. There are houses that were built in the early 1900s or late 1800s that may have really thick walls and are made of. They're brick and they just do a better job just insulating themselves than a house that was built in the 60s that has like two by fours, not even two by sixes for walls, and like thermal bridging and very little insulation. So it's kind of funny, but it is funny. Not haha, but like funny. Oh God. Like we did not do a good job building these houses and they're very difficult to update. Yes, yes.
Sean Ferrell: So, Seb, this is me calling out to you, let Matt and me know how your decision making process goes and what sorts of discoveries you make along the way. Because I think it would be an interesting path to follow as far as like what your experience is like and what sort of successes or hurdles you deal with as you go through this process. Because as Matt mentions, every time he talks about this subject, he built a home around all of this. So he's going to have a very current and contemporary experience of all this. But there are so many homeowners who are in your camps that would be maybe benefit from some anecdotes around what you go through. And that goes for everybody across the board. Of course people should share their experience. Like this one, this username. I just sat in awe. Jabba the Spud wrote, when I moved in. I love it. When I moved in, the attic was unvented and there was a bit of spray in insulation on the ceiling making unconditioned space. Unfortunately, that's where the air handler was. I replaced the 3 ton furnace AC with 2.5 ton cold climate heat pump. Then six weeks later the insulation was vacuumed out of the attic and and 4 inches of closed cell spray foam was added along with new windows and doors combined. These dropped. And this is remarkable, these dropped energy use for heating by 60%.
Matt Ferrell: Whoa.
Sean Ferrell: Making the heat pump oversized. Well, winter mornings can drop in the low 20s, but usually are somewhere around 30. Having a cold climate heat pump meant not having heat strips. Since I knew I was going solar and battery full, electrification was always the goal. I also live in Northern Arizona, so humidity is never an issue. Growing up in Phoenix, low humidity is wonderful to me. My place stays at about 40%. Jabba the spud, first of all, username, best username ever. Thumbs up. Second of all, you describe a living climate that seems absolutely idyllic. 40% humidity. It's cold in the morning, but it warms up during the day. I've been to Arizona. Matt and I were there a few years ago together as a matter of fact. And it's a beautiful. The scenery is incredible. It seems otherworldly to see who grew up in north in central New York.
Matt Ferrell: But Sean, in the middle of summer, it's the surface of the sun. That's the one thing.
Sean Ferrell: Hey, I've said it before, I can't get my hand. Give me a hot rock. That's all I want. That's all I want. When it comes to relaxing. Just give me a hot rock, I crawl out. I'm the lizard. I'm just going to drape myself over that thing. I'm going to soak in that heat. So like, lovely. But the experience I think is an interesting one because it kind of puts in an order of operations for everybody. Change your insulation first.
Matt Ferrell: Yes.
Sean Ferrell: Yeah.
Matt Ferrell: Also because it's like as you. As he noted, and as Paul noted, the HVAC installers sometimes do not take that into account when they're sizing the system for your home because reasons. So doing that first means when they come in and do the calculations, it'll be more accurate for them. In my case, I had a mechanical engineer that was able to kind of spec out what the stuff was going to look like with my home and plan ahead. But there's extra calculations and not every installer is going to go through the extra work to figure that out.
Sean Ferrell: And you mentioned Paul's experience. Well, Octothorpe had a question for Paul. I'm curious though, Octothorpe writes, how an HVAC contractor got all the way to coming to the house before discovering they were over their head and jetting. Likewise, having a contractor come up with a terrible in slab duct system, was it a failure of vetting on Paul's side, He writes, did you not ask the right questions or did the contractor ostensibly lie about past similar projects? It seems to me that considering the rarity of net zero highly efficient homes, the first question would be how many net zero houses have you done? That question may in fact be in hindsight exactly the sort of question Paul ought to have asked. And I'm not going to guess at what Paul did or did not ask in this situation. But I'd be willing to bet, given the relatively recent emergence of Net zero homes, the difficulty and unequal treatment of that as a term from state to state and from region to region, that a lot of contractors might approach this issue. As I'm a contractor, I know what I'm doing and the idea of certification and training is probably wildly uneven across the board. So you end up with, okay, we as consumers are probably going to have to do our due diligence. You're not wrong to say Paul may need may have needed to ask a different question, but he did say something that caused the guy to run and hat tipped that contractor for owning up to the right thing. I'm not going to be able to do this.
Matt Ferrell: Yes.
Sean Ferrell: So it really does put the onus on us, the consumer though, to know what are the requirements for contractor training in my state? What are the requirements for being able to achieve Net zero where I live? Is there anybody I can find regarding certification in that regard so that I know I'm going to the right people? Like the commenter Octothorpe says, write down a list of questions that challenge right out of the gate. Have you done this before? Can I get some referrals? Can you show me some examples of the work you've done? Those kinds of things? What'd you think about all that?
Matt Ferrell: I agree with you. Being able to hit it up front like that is going to help. This is related. I went to last year, I went to the New York Geo Conference, which is a conference about geothermal installers and the geothermal industry in New York State. And I went to their conference. I was invited out to go see the sessions and sit in, in there. And it was eye opening. It was fascinating because one of the sessions I sat in on, they were talking about how there aren't enough qualified geothermal installers yet and how to, how to fix that was what the session was about. And one of the people brought it up. And this kind of goes back to, it's not that installer has, is trying to con somebody or cheat somebody. It's just they don't know what they don't know, they think they know. And this person said, she, she trains geothermal installers and she said I could count every finger in toe. Almost 100% of the time you get an HVAC installer coming in that you're going to train on how to do geothermal. And they come in going, oh, I got this, I know this. As she pointed out, doing geothermal is so different from doing HVAC. It's night and day and they don't realize how different it is. And then she said plumbers that come in to learn how to do it actually are better at doing it because they don't seem to be coming in with the baggage of I know HVAC inside and out. They come in going with an open mind and then they pick it up really quick. I think it's just a. They think they know. Yeah, but they don't. So he calls, Paul calls or whoever calls and says, I need a. I want to install a heat pump. They're like, yeah, I got this. They come out and then it's. As soon as they're talking and finding all the details, there's, oh my God, no, I gotta get out of here. So I think that's probably what it is. It's just, it's not hubris. It's just you don't know what you don't know.
Sean Ferrell: Yeah. And like I mentioned, it's, you know, it puts it back onto the consumer to really like dig into what's expected by, like there are people in this country who are installing these things because their state doesn't bother with any kind of certification process. Like there are going to be people out there doing this who shouldn't be doing it. And then there are going to be places where the certification process is more challenging and the training exists. And it's just like where you live is a defining factor. Finally, for the closer on this episode's comments, I wanted to share this one from Dean McManus. Dean is a friend of the channel and he shares this nice discussion. Great job in showing the difference between geothermal versus air source. Mr. Not a robot. Yes, Dean is evoking our comment about a large discussion in Matt's previous video which was spurred on by a porn bot. Thank you, Dean, for not being a robot. Appreciate it. On now to our conversation about Matt's most recent. Which is why waiting for better solar costs you more. It's a look at, well, if you've got this solar panel now, but if you wait 10 years, you could get that solar panel, then is it worth waiting for that one then? If that one's going to be so much more efficient And a lot of number crunching in this one, Matt. Boy, did I hate to send you this comment yesterday. I sent you this comment because I was like, I gotta give Matt a heads up just in case he hasn't seen it. Chill633 jumped in and said, wait a minute, are your numbers accurate? Since you're targeting the same output of 6 kilowatts in Matt's equations, wouldn't the efficiency difference simply mean fewer panels for perovskite versus silicone? If you use 400 watt silicone cells at say 20% efficiency, then you need 15 silicon panels. But if we talk 30% efficient perovskite, that's 50% more efficient than 20% silicon.
So you don't need the same number of panels. 10 instead. Matt, I shared this comment with you. When did you stop crying?
Matt Ferrell: Just before we started recording this.
Sean Ferrell: Right.
Matt Ferrell: It was one of those. When you sent that to me, I was, oh, no, I misapplied. I misapplied it. The reason I fell into that trap was I wasn't looking at it. When my team are looking at this. We weren't looking at it from the point of view of how many panels would take. We were trying to abstract it to, okay, you have a roof and you have 6 kilowatts being generated here. What would that look like? Because there are no real panels on the market yet that we can get for our roofs. So we were just trying to abstract it out based on the numbers per square meter. You know, how much does it cost for perovskite versus this and that? That's how we were looking at it. And that's how we fell into this trap of, oh, no, we should have been looking at this from the point of view of the number of panels because you would need fewer panels for the same amount of power, which means all that kind of stuff. So we had misapplied it. But that does not change the takeaway because even if you correct for that, it still holds true that there's opportunity cost at the end of the day for waiting for four or five years to get a perovskite panel on your roof when a silicon panel today would have met your needs. And when you work out the math, it's still going to come out just fine in your favor for getting the solar panels today because you'll have four to five years of immediate relief, immediate savings, immediate benefits of being more energy independent. So there's all these reasons why waiting doesn't make sense. So it doesn't change the takeaway, but the math we applied, it had a flaw in our rationale. So, yes. Oh, man. Yeah, that makes me sad.
Sean Ferrell: Yeah, I was sorry. I was sorry to. I was sorry to see the comment, but I was pleased to see the comment from this perspective.
Matt Ferrell: Me, too.
Sean Ferrell: You've got very good viewers who are able to parse everything that's being said and think things through in a way as if they're a part of your team and being able to give you that feedback. And I just want to say, also to chill the tone of your comment.
Matt Ferrell: Perfect, perfect. You addressed it to no notes.
Sean Ferrell: You addressed it to Matt as a, wait a minute, is this accurate? And then ran through the logic of why you didn't think it was accurate. It wasn't. This dope doesn't know what he's talking about. So thank you for that. Thank you for being a part of the conversation instead of a critic of the conversation. We appreciate that so much. I wanted to jump onto that conversation regarding. Do you wait? Do you not wait? One of the things I don't recall you talking about in your video, and I was a little surprised that you didn't, was, okay, here are the numbers. Crunch, crunch, crunch. Here's how things stack up. Crunch, crunch, crunch. We're walking through the snow. Crunch, crunch, crunch. And you didn't mention the secondary market for solar panels. Going out and getting solar panels. Yeah, from the secondary market, where they're going to be maybe older, maybe not as quite as efficient, but much cheaper. Is there a recalculation along those lines that says you might need, you know, the, the efficiency might not be there, but since the price point is even lower, you might recoup your cost even sooner. So depending on what your needs are, looking at the secondary market, there might be the equivalent of saying to somebody, oh, you Need a new phone. But you do need the brand new phone. Maybe you can get one off of the secondary market that would meet your needs. So that's another aspect of this that I was curious as to why you didn't go into that. Is it just because too many numbers, too big a spreadsheet, not enough time?
Matt Ferrell: It it, yes, it is kind of a. It was kind of a can of worms. The more you pop it open and start to. It's just a can of worms. Wanted to keep it simple, straightforward. Just comparing a new silicon versus new perovskite or new next gen solar, whatever that is. What you're bringing up is almost like a completely video on its own. Should you get new solar or should you get new anything? It's like buying a car. If you want to be the most, get the most value out of a car, you should not be buying a new car. You should 100% be buying used. Never buy new because as soon as you drop it off the lot, you know the value goes down by like half. It's just. Yes, the secondhand market. My friend Ricky from Two Bit da Vinci, he's done this, he's bought panels for parts of his house on the used market and their former commercial solar cells from solar farm somewhere and they still have maybe 18, 20% efficiency or whatever. It is plenty good. And the cost of these panels is nothing. They are dirt cheap. So if you have the space for it, yeah, they're not as efficient. But toss on a couple like three or four more extra panels, you'll get the same output and it's going to cost you 25, 30% of what it would cost to go new. It's, it's bananas really. Really is a smart path. If you, if you're looking for the biggest bang for your buck, it's do it yourself and buy used.
Sean Ferrell: Jumping into the Do I wait? Do I not wait? A couple of people, I paired them together. They were right next to each other in the comments so I didn't have to work very hard. I just cropped both of them together. Very good reasons to not wait. Why wait for next gen when you're Terry Harrigan. I'm 68 years old, wanted solar since forever panels going on in a month. I am too old to wait for the next generation. Terry, I don't think you're too old. First of all, if that's you and your user's photo, you're wearing a bicycle helmet and you look like you're biking in some sort of competitive mode. So Terry, hats off to you. You're out there. The cardio's great. Thumbs up. Second of all, 68 just doesn't seem super old to me. So from that perspective, also thumbs up. But, yeah, that's a consideration. How old am I? How long do I want to save money via solar panels? Why wait? And then Aaron jumps in at the other end. I got solar just because the data center skyrocketed my electric bill.
Matt Ferrell: Yep.
Sean Ferrell: Another consideration. Power is getting more expensive. Right now we are looking at. Just today I was watching an analysis of how oil costs are going to go up as a result of the US Military actions in Iran. We're going to see our bills go up again. And that's going to be another factor that could say, oh, you've got an oil furnace. Maybe you want to look into ways of changing that. So, well, this, none of this is, none of this is in a fishbowl. It's all interconnected. Right.
Matt Ferrell: Which is part of what always gets lost. When I've talked about solar in my house, going back to my previous house, always see comments about if you just invested that money in the stock market, you would have got a return of blah, blah, blah. As soon as you make that argument. Completely missing the point. It's energy independence. It's not just about money. It's energy independence. Oil prices going up. I don't use oil in my house. I don't use oil in my car because my car is electric and I charge enough. Sunshine. So if gasoline prices go up again, doesn't impact me too much other than the cost of goods and stores going up because gas has gone up. There's reasons why going this path can make extra sense and give you that energy security because you're, you're generating it yourself and you're doing it yourself. It gives you extra bonuses. When stuff like this happens in the world. It gives you a little more control over your own destiny. So there's pros not waiting. Yeah.
Sean Ferrell: The argument of, like, if you'd taken that money and put it in the stock market, you'd have X dollars by now. It's a little bit like saying if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a bicycle. It's just like, like, what are you talking about? And finally, the best worst comment from JoPo. JoPo has been the best worst comment a number of times. I'm beginning to think that we need to get them a T shirt made. Jopo jumps in to say, we need a group of experts to get together and explain this. Clearly some kind of solar panel.
Matt Ferrell: That's so good. That is so good.
Sean Ferrell: Yeah.
Matt Ferrell: Chef's kiss.
Sean Ferrell: Yeah. No notes. Good job, Jopo. Yeah. So, everybody, was there anything about this conversation that you think we missed? Is there an aspect to Matt's video that you wish we would dive back into? Let us know in the comments. We'd love to hear what you have to say. As always, your comments really do drive the content of this program and they help shape Undecided, as was demonstrated by a comment that led Matt to going back and leaving a. Leaving a correction in the description about the previous video. Like, you guys are critical to all this, so keep those comments coming. We really appreciate it. If you'd like to support us more directly, there's a join button on YouTube or you can go to stilltbd.fm. Click the join button there. Both those ways let you throw coins at our heads. We appreciate the welts. And then we get down to the heavy, heavy business of talking about the ways that we are wrong. Thank you so much, everyone, for taking the time to watch or listen. We'll talk to you next time.