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Ever wonder what’s really going on behind the scenes in Utah politics?
From the Capitol to your headphones, Special Session with Bryan Schott breaks down the most important news stories from the world of Utah politics.
Bryan Schott has been covering Utah politics for more than 25 years, digging into the stories that matter the most to you.
He brings insights into politics and policy and interviews with newsmakers to help you understand what’s driving the latest headlines.
[00:00:00] Well, well, well, it looks like Utah's Republican party just discovered the political equivalent of a cheat code. Hi there, I'm Brian Shot, and welcome to another episode of Special Session. Before we dive into the latest political shenanigans here in the beehive state, do me a solid and hit that subscribe button.
[00:00:28] And hey, if you're feeling generous, leave a rating and review five stars. If you appreciate someone actually explaining what the hell is going on in Utah politics on the show today, I'll explain how the Utah GOP might have just figured out how to kill that. Pesky independent redistricting commission that voters approved back in 2018.
[00:00:49] And while they're at it, we're gonna try to block the new map that was approved by lawmakers just last week. Buckle up folks. This one's a doozy.[00:01:00]
[00:01:03] I wasn't planning on doing one of these tonight, but, uh, something happened this afternoon that I think we need to talk about, um, and explain what is going to be happening. Because it really looks like the Utah Republican Party may have figured out. How to repeal prop four after getting slapped down in the courts and, um, and voters passed that ballot initiative.
[00:01:29] Uh, good evening and welcome to the show. My name is Brian Shot. I am a journalist, an independent journalist who's been covering Utah politics for more then 25 years. I am the publisher and managing editor of Utah Political Watch News. That's my newsletter. You can sign up for my newsletter there for free, or you can throw some money in the tip jar or become a paying subscriber to help support what I do as an independent journalist.
[00:01:56] Okay, so. What happened today? The [00:02:00] Utah Republican Party announced that they're going to be taking two tracks, two tracks to try and one, stop the state from putting a new map into place, a new congressional map into place. And you remember we're in the whole redistricting process. They're trying to figure that out, or they're trying to stop that and two, at the same time, a parallel effort.
[00:02:24] To repeal proposition four, which is the ballot initiative. Passed by voters in 2018 that established the independent redistricting commission in the first place. If you remember, in 2018, there was a ballot initiative. They collected enough signatures that created a independent redistricting commission, took redistricting away from Utah lawmakers.
[00:02:49] It was an anti gerrymandering law. This independent commission would have to draw new political maps based on a number of. Requirements in the law, they couldn't use [00:03:00] any partisan data. They had to minimize splitting up counties, cities, communities of interest, follow geographic boundaries as much as possible, and basically draw these maps blind.
[00:03:11] They couldn't be drawn to favor or disfavor a political party, a candidate or, or an incumbent. And that's why they weren't able to figure out or use any information about where incumbents lived or where candidates lived. We talked about that last week and I published a story that all of the maps that are under, uh, consideration by the court right now, all of them jam at least two of the four Congressional Republicans incumbents into the same district.
[00:03:40] One of them, the map approved by lawmakers jams, three of them into the same district. So that was passed by voters in 2018. In 2020, the legislature repealed it. They passed something called SB 200. They repealed that law and got rid of the anti gerrymandering measures. They kept a redistricting commission in [00:04:00] place, but they had no authority to draw the maps.
[00:04:02] They were advised they were an advisory role. At all. And they weren't allowed to. Uh, what they presented maps to the legislature, but the legislature was not obliged to vote on them, take a vote at all. And that's what happened. The legislature repealed the anti gerrymandering part of it as well, and they passed their own maps.
[00:04:24] There was a lawsuit. We've been in that process for a couple of years. In August, a judge struck down SB 200 saying that lawmakers. Unconstitutionally repealed that ballot initiative from the people Put Proposition four back in place. We're drawing new maps. There have been three maps submitted to the court as of last week.
[00:04:43] The legislature submitted one called Prop, uh, option C, and then the plaintiff submitted two. That's where we're at right now. Those maps are currently under consideration by the court. Both sides have until the 17th, which is Friday, to submit materials in support [00:05:00] or in in opposition to the maps. And then there are two hearings scheduled for October 23rd and 24th where they will have a hearing over that.
[00:05:10] So that's where we are at now with the maps. Today the Utah GOP announced that they were going to be taking two. They were launching two efforts. Two, one. Repeal the map that was just passed by lawmakers option C and two to overturn proposition four. The first one I think is a long shot overturning proposition four.
[00:05:37] I think they may have hit on something and I'm gonna explain what that is in a second. Let's go to the first part. Uh, attacking opposition ma, option C, the option C map, which was approved by lawmakers on Monday. Now you may think that that's weird because the Utah GOP had this huge effort. To try and push lawmakers to approve option three C.
[00:05:58] They sent out an email to [00:06:00] their uh, supporters saying, go on the website, comment on option C, tell lawmakers to pass option C, and they did that. And then lawmakers passed option C. That was the map that was the most geo free p friendly of the five maps that the legislature put forward. Today, they're announcing a statewide referendum.
[00:06:20] To overturn it at the ballot box, and really it feels like more of a. Delay tactic. In fact, it is a delay tactic because what they have to do, if you remember earlier this year when lawmakers passed HB 2 67, which was the anti-union bill, the one that, um, prohibited public employees from forming a labor union.
[00:06:44] They ran that one through the legislature and then a coalition of labor groups got together and launched a referendum and within. And so any law that's not passed by lawmakers by a two thirds vote can be subject to a [00:07:00] referendum and organizers for that effort they had. About 40 days less than that. We have 40 days from the end of whatever legislative session it is to collect a certain amount of signatures in order to put the issue on the ballot, and that's about 134,000 signatures that the Utah GOP will have until November 14th.
[00:07:20] They have until November 14th to collect 134,000 signatures statewide. I think that's the number. I'll look that up in a second. But they also have to hit certain signature goals equaling 8% of all the active voters in a district. All the people cast a ballot in the last election in 26 of 29 Senate districts, so it's very hard to get a referendum.
[00:07:44] If they meet those signature requirements, then the law is put on hold and it's put on the ballot. That's what they did with the public labor union bill. That one is put on hold because they crushed it. They got over 250,000 signatures, uh, by the [00:08:00] deadline. So the Utah GOP will have to collect 134,000 signatures, and they have until November 14th to do it.
[00:08:08] Thus, they have to hit those signature, those signature targets in the Senate districts because law says it's 40 days after the end of the legislative session that just ended, and this one ended on Monday. So they have until November 14th to turn these signatures in. If they do that. Then option C, the map passed by lawmakers will go on hold, and that's important because November 10th is the date for us to have a brand new map in place.
[00:08:40] That is the date the Lieutenant Governor's office put in statute or said to the court that they need to have it in place by November 10th in order to get all their processes in place. And so everyone knows where they're running. If they can get the, uh, 134,000 signatures by November 14th, then that law's gonna go on hold.
[00:08:59] So if that's the map [00:09:00] that the court picks. And I'm pretty sure the court's gonna pick it because it meets the requirements of the bill. The new law that lawmakers push through during the legislative session. And we'll talk about that in a second as well. But if she picked, if the judge, if Judge Diana Gibson picks option C and then they get enough signatures to put it on hold, what do you do?
[00:09:20] You've got this new map that the court put in place, but then the map has been put on hold because it's gonna go up for a vote. In the next election in 2026, but this is the map you're supposed to be using in 2026. So they've kind of messed things up. I mean, this, this is gonna be a really big opportunity to mess things up and just delay the whole process because who's gonna vote on this map to put this map in place in 2026?
[00:09:48] For the 2020 I, I mean, I suppose we could, but that's probably gonna be moot given. The other efforts that the Utah GOP is going to be undertaking [00:10:00] here, and this one, this one is incredibly clever. I am impressed with what they came up with. So that's the first attack on this whole process that's been launched by the Utah GOP today.
[00:10:16] It's a very high bar to clear 134,000 signatures by November 14th. It's gonna be very hard to do that, plus hitting those signature goals in all the districts. The second one, this one is really clever. You could use the phrase diabolical if you want. I'm surprised that no one has come up with it yet, but.
[00:10:40] I think that this is gonna work. I need to correct something. In order to get, uh, the referendum on the ballot. They need to hit signature targets in 15 of the state's, 29 Senate districts. Not 26. It's 15. So it's not, uh, so it's not an in incre, it's still an incredibly high bar to cross, [00:11:00] but they're gonna need to get it in 15 senate districts, not 26.
[00:11:07] Citizens in Utah can, can propose laws in two ways. That's a way to overturn a law at the ballot box. That's a way to veto a law. The referendum is a way to veto a law passed by the lawmakers. Citizens in Utah can also, uh. Propose laws through the, the initiative process. And there's two tracks, there's two ways to do this.
[00:11:29] The first one is a ballot initiative where you propose a law, you get a certain number of signatures, it's a hundred and it's still 134,000 signatures. You ha. But you do have to cross that, um, that signature goal in 26 of 29 Senate districts. So it's an incredibly high bar to meet. You collect the signatures, then the law goes on the ballot and voters voted up or down.
[00:11:58] That's what happened with [00:12:00] prop four. That's what happened with medical cannabis. That's what happened with Medicaid expansion. Those got on the ballot and voters approved them. The other way is also through an initiative, but it's by submitting a law directly to lawmakers, it's, it's essentially citizens crafting a bill that goes to lawmakers who then have to consider it in the next legislative session.
[00:12:27] And for that one, you only need 70,000 signatures. You only get four. Uh, the main, in order to put it on the ballot, you need to get 8% of all the voters who voted in the last presidential election or in the last election for a referendum, you're submitting to lawmakers. You only need to get 4%, so that's about 70,000 signatures.
[00:12:54] You still have signature goals. You have to hit in a number of districts, but it's only 70,000 signatures. If you hit [00:13:00] that goal, then. It turns into a bill that is introduced in the next legislative session, and the legislature has to vote it up or down. You can propose a law that way. So here's what they're gonna do.
[00:13:14] They are going to, I'm pretty sure that the state's largest political party. The Republicans who probably don't, aren't big fans, or they have enough people in the party who aren't fans of Proposition four or aren't fans of independent redistricting commission, I'm pretty sure that they can get 70,000 signatures statewide.
[00:13:35] So they're going to simply submit a bill directly to the legislature that o, that repeals prop four that gets rid of it, that. Repeals, this other law that was passed by voters at the ballot box in 2018, what do you think's gonna happen when the [00:14:00] Republican party gets enough signatures to put this on the ballot or to submit this to lawmakers and then it goes to the Utah legislature, which has a super majority for the GGOP.
[00:14:14] I would probably go to Vegas and put everything I own on it. Passing with two thirds to prevent it from to prevent a ref referendum. They're gonna be able to do this, and what it does, it does a couple of things. When they repealed prop four, the courts ruled that they overstepped their authority constitutionally.
[00:14:43] By repealing what the citizens did because all political power is inherent in the people. That's what it says in the Utah Constitution. And people have the right to try to reform their government through an initiative, through the initiative process. Well, this is part of the [00:15:00] initiative process, and it's gonna give lawmakers all the cover that they need.
[00:15:06] This isn't lawmakers who are proposing this bill. This is not a bill coming from a member of the GOP caucus to repeal prop four, because if you remember what Judge Diana Gibson ruled is that in order for the lawmakers to make changes to prop four, it has to be narrowly tailored to meet a compelling government interest and repealing the whole thing didn't do that.
[00:15:30] Repealing the whole thing was not narrowly tailored. And there was no compelling government interest. But if you get a law, a proposed law from the people from the public, which is what this is going to do, then they've got all the cover they need. To vote this thing through because it's not coming from them.
[00:15:53] It's coming from the people. Yeah, sure. It's coming from the Republican party who's launching this effort, but it's the people. It's [00:16:00] 70,000 people or however many they get to sign this ballot initiative. It's this, this initiative, it won't be a ballot initiative, and it's a much lower bar to clear than it is to put it on the ballot.
[00:16:11] And I don't think that if they put it on the ballot, it would, it would pass. It's expensive. It's hard to put things on the ballot. If you've got the Republican party proposing this law to repeal prop four to get rid of independent redistricting commission,
[00:16:29] I think we can, I think it's pretty likely that we can just start shoveling dirt on the grave of Utah's short-lived independent redistricting commission that never got to do anything because this, this is a hundred percent legal. What, what they're doing. It is a hundred percent. It's all about board.
[00:16:47] They're allowed to do this. This is part of the process. This is in state law. There's nothing underhanded about it. It's just part of the law. So they're going to get enough signatures to [00:17:00] they're, they're gonna get enough signatures. 70,000 is the number. I'm gonna bring that up here in a second. I'm gonna look at it here.
[00:17:11] Pulling this off the Lieutenant Governor's website in order to get. In order to submit a petition to the legislature for proposed law, the organizers must obtain at least 70,374 signatures from registered voters in the state. That's 4% of the active voters from the last election, and additionally, they must meet the signature thresholds listed below in at least 6 26 out of 29 Senate districts.
[00:17:42] But if, if you look at it like Senate District One, they need 2,600 signatures from registered voters. They're gonna be able to do that. I, it does not, it does not feel like it's much of a stretch to get there.[00:18:00]
[00:18:01] And you might be able to think, and you might be thinking this is underhanded. They're overriding the will of the people. They're really not by. Repealing the law through SB 200. Yeah, they did override the will of the people. But if this comes from the public, which it's going to, they're not overriding the will will of people.
[00:18:19] I don't see how anybody can make that case in court. I don't see how anybody can file a lawsuit to stop this. This is, this is, use whatever adjective you want, but it's kind of brilliant. I'm surprised it took them this long. To land on it. What do you think about this? I mean, it, it, I, I'm sure people are kind of infuriated by it.
[00:18:40] I'm sure people are kind of really upset about the whole thing, but I. Ain't nothing wrong with it other than the fact that maybe the optics seem a little bit wrong. Uh, comment. Okay. Uh, Zeke, well, can you restate the issue for those that join late? Yes. On Instagram, [00:19:00] what the Utah Republican Party is doing is they've got two, they are challenging the redistricting process, the new maps, and independent and the independent redistricting law.
[00:19:13] With two uh, moves that they announced tonight that frankly, I think one of 'em is gonna work. The first one is they've launched, they're launching a statewide referendum to challenge the map passed by lawmakers. Last week, lawmakers approved option C. That's the map they submitted to the court. That's in state law, right?
[00:19:31] That's the, that's the map that they put in state law. And you can. Do a referendum to overturn it at the ballot box. It's the same thing that happened with the union bill earlier this year. The union busting bill HB 2 67 from Representative Jordan Tischer and what that that bill prevented public employees from forming a labor union from collectively bargaining that didn't prevent the labor, it didn't [00:20:00] prevent them from forming a labor union, but they couldn't collectively bargain.
[00:20:03] That was the issue there, but it didn't pass with two thirds in both the house and the Senate, that's the big number up on the hill. If that bill had passed with two thirds in both houses, they wouldn't have been able to launch a referendum, but it didn't. So they launched a massive signature gathering effort.
[00:20:20] They needed 140,000 signatures. Within 40 days of the end of the session, they did that and are able to put the law on hold. So now that law HB 2 67 is going to be on the ballot in 2026 where voters will weigh in, up or down.
[00:20:42] What the Utah GOP is doing is they're launching the same process to try and challenge the map passed by the legislature on Monday if they, and they have until November 14th, which conveniently is after the deadline set by the Lieutenant Governor's office to have a new map in place. And [00:21:00] so if they can get enough SI signatures.
[00:21:02] I think it's gonna be hard. I'm not saying they won't, but I think it's going to be very hard to get that number of signatures by November 14th. They don't have a lot of time to do it, and they have to hit certain signature goals in 15 of 29 Senate districts. If they do that, it'll put the new congressional map on hold and it, it means it goes on the ballot in 2026, and that means.
[00:21:23] That map cannot be used for the 2026 election. So this is just a delay tactic. This is, that effort is a hundred percent delaying trying to stop from having a new map in place. A map that potentially creates two swing districts where Democrats could be competitive, which we've talked about on previous live streams, and I've written about at Utah Political Watch News.
[00:21:45] The other issue, and this is the one I think that has the greater chance of success, is they're going to, they're, they're launching an initiative. There are two types of initiatives in Utah. There's a ballot initiative, and then you can submit a [00:22:00] law directly to the legislature that they have to vote on.
[00:22:04] In order to get an initiative on the ballot, you have to get 140,000 signatures. You have to hold hearings around the state finance, uh, uh, fiscal impact statements. It's a very complicated process. You need to get 8% of the statewide signatures. You need to get 8% of. All of the active voters from the last election, which is about 140,000, and you need to hit those signature goals in that 8% in 26 of 29 Senate districts.
[00:22:29] It's very hard to get an initiative on the ballot. The other way is to simply submit. An initiative, a petition to the legislature, and they have to vote on it, which is, has the same effect, but instead of voters weighing in, instead of voters passing it or, or, or voting it down to the ballot box, it just takes lawmakers.
[00:22:47] So what the Utah GOP is doing is they are going to submit a bill, an initiative, they're gonna try to get an initiative to the legislature. That overturns Proposition four, meaning it's going to repeal the [00:23:00] independent redistricting commission and go back to the way it was. And this gets around all the problems they had with the courts because the courts slapped the le, the legislature down when they first repealed Proposition four, saying that what they did was not narrowly tailored to meet a compelling government interest.
[00:23:19] This is coming directly from the people Jay Macon on Instagram. It would be awesome if they used their energy to come up with better ideas that people wanted to vote for. Bananas idea. I know. Well, you know, you kind of think that that's. Wasn't it Mark Twain that says people get the legi, the, the, uh, the, the legislature that they de deserve.
[00:23:40] This is what happens when a lot of people don't want to, when a lot of people just vote straight party ticket or they don't really look at the initiative or they agree with what's going on. I mean, you have to remember that Utah is, is, is an overwhelmingly Republican state. They registered Republicans make up half of all at registered actor active voters in the state.[00:24:00]
[00:24:00] So peop they've got pop popular support behind them. Seth Jarvis on Utah. What, if anything, is the Utah Democratic Party doing about it? They really can't do anything. The only thing that they can do is, is say, don't sign the, don't sign these, the, these petitions that are going to be circulating from the Republican party.
[00:24:18] That's really the only thing that that, that they can do. Just trying to encourage people to not sign them.
[00:24:26] Uh, TT Riku on, on, uh, YouTube. From what I am hearing, not much hope. What is a counter offer? I don't think that there's a counter offer. They've got a super majority in the legislature. They've got a, a majority in almost every senate district. They've, they should be able to get these 70,000 votes signatures to submit this to the legislature.
[00:24:52] And at that point it's, it's, it's a done deal. It's a feta, accompli, uh, journey girl 67 on YouTube and the words of [00:25:00] the weak leader. Just because you can doesn't mean you should quote from Spencer Cox. I remember when they overturned Proposition four in two in 2020. It wasn't that long ago, but one of the, just the justifications that they were saying, lawmakers were saying things like it only, it barely passed statewide.
[00:25:22] It just got over 50%. I think it. Got 50.3% at the ballot box, which is enough to pass. Obviously it only passed in four counties. It only got a majority in four counties, and that's, so my constituents didn't want it. That's what they told themselves to, uh, to repeal prop four. Now you now they're talking about how they made a deal with the Better Boundaries people.
[00:25:46] It was the kind of deal that you would get in the Sub Sopranos. Better boundaries got what they could because they knew this was coming. Right [00:26:00] on TikTok Cameron Stringham says, why only 70,000 signatures for that path to get the legislature to vote on it? Because you're not trying to put it up for a statewide vote.
[00:26:10] You only, um, that's. You're getting it to lawmakers, and it's a law, a smaller number of people. I think that's the justification behind it, because you're just creating a bill that lawmakers have to vote on. So it's easier to do it that way because then the legislature is involved in the process. When you put it on the ballot, legislature is completely removed from the process.
[00:26:36] They're not involved in that at all. At least that's what I think the justification is always. Uh, lemme see. Sorry. Uh, on TikTok, it is always PR says, does it not need to go before Judge Gibson? Not this. Not this at all. Nope. Ju uh, this, this is a completely different process. I think the, [00:27:00] um, the referendum to try to overturn the map, I think that's a hundred percent a delay tactic.
[00:27:05] They are just trying everything they can to stop this new map from going into place. And there's a few other things and, and when we, we, we can, and I'll, I'll, I'll talk a little about, 'cause there's, we're still not done with that whole process, but I, if this feels like a delay tactic, it feels like there's, if they can get these, these signatures to overturn the map, great.
[00:27:25] If they can't, they've got this other path. Obviously, the thing that they wanna do first is. Overturning the map. They wanna stop the map from going into place. And also, I mean this, this could op, I, I thought, I don't think this is the only path they have to delay. I don't think this is the only path they have to delay.
[00:27:50] And we're gonna talk about that 'cause there's more court stuff happening this month. As we remember. We've gotta be done by the 10th [00:28:00] of November, less than a month from now. Milner on YouTube feels kind of shitty. Seems like the map that the legislator proposed was okay, better than the old map, and now the legislator's reeling and trying to find a way to not let us use the map they made.
[00:28:14] It is weird that the Utah Republican Party, remember this effort is coming from the Utah GOP. Both these efforts are being launched by the Republican Party, and it does feel kinda weird that the Republican Party is the ones who had this huge effort to try to get everybody to vote. Or or to support option C, which is one that lawmakers chose and now they're trying to overturn it.
[00:28:39] One, now that lawmakers chose it. It feels weird. It is kinda weird. Strange bedfellows in politics. So those are the two things that are happening from the Utah GOP, and I really think that the one that. Has the best [00:29:00] chance of upending everything is the initiative to get this law in front of lawmakers.
[00:29:06] Because if they do this Republican legislature, this Republican super majority, they've got 61 members in the house. They only need 50 to pass it with two thirds. They got 22 in the Senate. They only need, they need 20. I don't think they're gonna be able to get that.
[00:29:28] Shay on TikTok, do you think this is a tactic to earn brownie points saying, see, we all don't like map C? Maybe, but I think it is, I mean, take it as a serious effort to, I mean, I'm, it, to me it feels like it's gonna be very hard to get the referendum to get enough SI signatures for the referendum to block the map in the first place, but it's still a very serious effort.
[00:29:53] Um, they wouldn't do this if they didn't, if they weren't serious about it, 'cause it's gonna cost some money. [00:30:00] And the Utah Republican Party finally got back on solid financial footing just within the last couple of years. They were drowning in debt. They were an absolute mess. If you'll remember the former Republican party chairman, James Evans, I mean, he left that party.
[00:30:20] Uh, in an absolute financial disaster when he was defeated, uh, by Rob Anderson at the convention. Rob Anderson said that when he walked in, he was, he was finding bills. He walked in. There were a bunch of bills that hadn't been paid. He was still a year and a half into his tenure. He was still finding bills that the Republican party hadn't paid.
[00:30:43] And they were pretty much bankrupted by the effort to challenge SB 54, the signature path to get on the ballot in the courts. They're finally back on fin on solid financial footing. A lot of that is because of [00:31:00] Senator Mike Lee. I mean, he has donated a lot of money to the party to help them retire that debt, help them to keep them going.
[00:31:07] And you know, the last two chairman were former employees of his office, so that makes some sense. I mean, take this ser take. This is deadly serious and I don't think they would be launching it if they didn't think that they could do it. I'm skeptical because I know it's a very hard thing to do, but take it very seriously.
[00:31:31] Ulner says, so will this end the map proposal process? We're gonna finish up the court process, okay? The court is going to pick a new map. They are going to pick a new map. As I said earlier, both sides, the legislature and the plaintiffs have until the 17th to submit their briefs in favor of MAP proposals, opposing MAP proposals, and then we're [00:32:00] going to have hearings.
[00:32:02] There are two hearings scheduled for October 23rd and 24th in Salt Lake City. So, and at the end of this process, the court is going to pick a new map, which one they pick. I don't know, because while this is all going on, if you remember last week, one of the things that the legislature did the same time when they picked their map is they passed this new law from Senator Brady Brammer.
[00:32:29] I got it right that time. And the new law from Senator Brady Brammer said. That it, it basically created three mathematical tests that essentially made it so that the judge would have no choice but to pick map c. It changed proposition four, it changed the way that the, that the courts had to evaluate the map.
[00:32:55] Only the congressional map, not the state legislature map, not the state se, not the state [00:33:00] school board maps, only the congressional map. And it created these tests that. Essentially, if you look at what they were trying to do, makes it so that a gerrymandered map looks fair. So the court would have to look at a gerrymandered map and say, yeah, that passes Proposition four.
[00:33:17] They put these rules into proposition four. They passed that on Monday. And there's a provi. There was a provision in the law that said if it got two thirds vote in each house, then it would go into effect immediately. When Governor Cox signed it, they pushed that bill through in the morning. Governor Cox signed it right after one o'clock and hit his desk.
[00:33:35] He signed it. Then that was the law. Then they passed the maps, so they have this new law that stacks the deck in favor of the legislature's maps. We're gonna have a new map, but speaking of that law. The plaintiffs immediately challenged that law in court. So they submitted an amended complaint that very same day [00:34:00] when they turned in their map proposals to the court.
[00:34:02] They also had, uh, an amended complaint challenging this new law from the legislature. And I, I know this is incredibly complicated and I'm trying to explain it to you, uh, as simply as possible. 'cause it's important that you understand what's going on here. So they, they submitted an amended complaint challenging this new law, SB 1 0 1 1 from Senator Brammer.
[00:34:25] Basically saying that, um, you know, it, the judge should block it. It's stacking the deck in favor of gerrymandered maps. It makes it so that you have to gerrymandered. It makes it so gerrymandering is required. So they're challenging that. And yesterday, Monday, late Monday, the court said, okay, let's go.
[00:34:51] Let's have a hearing on this. So both sides, the legislature has, I think, until the [00:35:00] 22nd to file their response to this challenge, to the law. The plaintiffs have until the 29th of October to. File their rebuttal, and then we're gonna have a hearing on November 3rd, one week before the deadline to get a new map in place.
[00:35:17] So we're gonna have this new, we're gonna have a hearing over this new law on November 3rd. And what if the court accepts the law? Well, you're gonna have an appeal from the plaintiffs to the Utah Supreme Court. Delay tactic that could gum the whole thing up, that could stop a new map from going into place.
[00:35:35] If the judge strikes down this new law, you're obviously gonna have an appeal from the legislature to the Utah Supreme Court. Maybe the federal courts, who knows that could delay everything. At the end of the day, the odds are more in favor of delay. Then in favor of us having a new map for [00:36:00] 2026, which is the goal of the Republican legislature.
[00:36:04] Didn't wanna put a new map in the first place. They don't wanna do this. The map, they were just fine with the maps. The maps that Democrats could not compete. These maps that were gerrymandered, these maps that went for Republicans by 19 points or more, they're just fine with that. So all of this is just adds another element of possible delay into the process, and it's an incredibly tight timeline.
[00:36:30] We've gotta be done by November 10th and we're having a hearing on this new law on November 3rd, and whoever loses that and appeals the Supreme, the Utah Supreme Court could say, okay, this is too important. For us to discuss it all. This is too important for us to leave alone. Everything's paused, and we're gonna go back to the 2021 Maps.[00:37:00]
[00:37:01] I'm kind of a pessimist anyway, but I really think that that's the most likely scenario here. So if you, if people are having dreams of, of perhaps getting one Democrat, two Democrats competing in Utah, I'm not so convinced. I think that with this incredibly compressed timeline. Remember the judge only overturned this at the end of August, and we've been pushing through this incredibly tight timeline and time's ticking, and we're running out of time now, and I just think that delay right now, the clock is on the side of the legislature.
[00:37:48] They've got the advantage right now. And if they can run out the clock. Past November 10th, I don't know if the Lieutenant Governor's office has any wi wiggle room. They told the court this has to be done [00:38:00] by November 10th. They have to have a new map by November 10th. I don't know if there's any wi wiggle room there, but if this goes anywhere near January.
[00:38:13] The filing date candidates start filing to run for office on January 2nd. That at that point, whatever maps in place is the map we are using. And so I just, it just, that's just what it feels like. But I thought it was important to jump on here tonight and talk about that because it was, um, because this is, this is a really big deal.
[00:38:40] And your eyes may glaze over, and I hope I'm just explaining it well enough for you. But time is really on the side of the legislature here. Couch on, uh, YouTube says, can the deadline of November 10th be pushed? I don't know. I don't know when the Lieutenant Governor's office told the court, November, they first said [00:39:00] November 1st, and then they pushed it to November 10th.
[00:39:05] I don't know if there's any wiggle room beyond that. But this is what the court's weighing. I mean, the court has said this map, the 2021 map is unconstitutional, and it would be irreparable harm to the voters if we used it. If we used it during another election cycle, right? That's the harm that the courts have to look at.
[00:39:34] But at the same time. The Legisla, the Utah Constitution says the legislature is in charge of redistricting,
[00:39:47] specifically says that, and we haven't even litigated that question in court, whether a law can, A law can take that power away from lawmakers [00:40:00] because it's in the Constitution, which overrides whatever law is out there.
[00:40:07] So these are some pretty weighty questions. We've got less than a month to work all of this out, and it's really, really, it's, I, I do not envy the job that Judge Gibson has. I don't envy that at all. I, and I'm sorry to be a downer on your Tuesday night, but I've been doing this a long time. And this is kind of a brilliant move by the Utah GOP.
[00:40:39] They're using the process as it was written, as it was in, maybe this wasn't the way that it was intended, but they're using the process.
[00:40:52] If you have any questions, any uh, further questions, any further comments. What are your thoughts on this? I [00:41:00] obviously, I'm sure if you, if, if, if you would like to see fair boundaries, but Better Boundaries. Did have a statement tonight. Let me read that as it came out here. Needless to say, they were not happy.
[00:41:12] They were not happy with this. Here's a statement from Better Boundaries. Elizabeth Rasmussen, executive director of Better, better Boundaries issued the following statement. This is yet another attempt to overturn the will of the people. These are desperate, transparent attempts to run out the clock obstruct court ordered reforms and confuse the public ahead of 2026.
[00:41:31] They do nothing to serve Utahans, only to protect gerrymandered power. The process voters created to remove partisanship from redistricting has been hijacked by the super majority. We will use every tool available in court, in the public square and at the ballot box to defend prop four. Protect fair maps and uphold the rule of law.
[00:41:50] Better boundaries in our statewide coalition are remain committed to ensuring Utah's maps are drawn by principle, not politics.
[00:41:59] [00:42:00] Uh, Tracy JG on Instagram says, do you think at some point this will backfire against the GOP? It hasn't yet. Remember, everybody was all worked up about, uh, amendment D last year. Last year after the Utah Supreme Court ruled against the legislature in this gerrymandering case, what did they do? They. Went straight to, they called themselves into a special session, emergency session.
[00:42:30] They put an amendment on, a constitutional amendment on the ballot amendment D that basically said lawmakers have the unfettered right to repeal any ballot initiative passed by the public. And they got slapped down in court that got knocked off the ballot because the ballot language was misleading.
[00:42:53] Because the ballot language proposed by the Speaker of the House and the president of the Senate, that ballot in the ballot [00:43:00] language said that it did the opposite of what it really did. Got slapped down in court, and there were a lot of people who were thinking, oh, this is gonna hurt them at the ballot box.
[00:43:08] They lost one seat. They lost one seat in, I believe West Valley City, but then they gained one seat in the house. Uh, knocking out Rosemary lesser in house district 10 up in Ogden. So they haven't paid for this yet. They didn't pay for it in 2020 when they, at the 2020 election, when they repealed better boundaries with SB 200, when they repealed prop for, they have not paid a price for this.
[00:43:45] So if I think that they're gonna pay a price now, no, I don't, I don't think they will because they haven't before I could be wrong, but the history, what's happened in the past shows that they, that voters are not going to punish them [00:44:00] for these things. They just don't do it.
[00:44:09] And think about this. Someone just said, who's up for election this year? Nobody. Not this year. This is all the municipal stuff. We've gotta wait all the way in a year from now, and a lot happens in a year. And voters' memories are very short. Things that you think are going to stick with voters don't. When you hear.
[00:44:33] When you hear pundits talking about how, oh, this is gonna hurt them at the polls. It is a long time until we get to the 2026 election. It's a very long time, and frankly, most of the races will already be decided by the time we get to November because they're decided either at convention or. In a primary, in districts that are [00:45:00] so overwhelmingly tilted towards one party or the other at the legislature that we're done by the time we get to November, it doesn't matter.
[00:45:11] And that's, that's what happens when you live in a state that has a super majority. Tracy says, remind us what it would take to break the majority. Well break the majority. I mean, Democrats, they have 14 right now in the house. Uh, 35 is what? Yeah, 35 is midpoint. I'm not really great at math, but they would need to, they would need to pick up a bunch of seats if they could break the super majority, which means they would need to pick up 11 seats, 12 seats to get the Republicans below 50.
[00:45:46] If anybody could break the Superman majority, that would change the way that the legislature operates in this state. If Republicans didn't know going into votes on [00:46:00] controversial bills, if they didn't know that they had a veto proof majority, a super majority already. That would change the way there would actually be some negotiation because, and, and you would see a moderating effect on the kind of legislation that Republican, that the legislature proposes.
[00:46:18] But right now they've got a super majority. All of the decisions, all of the really tough decisions are already made before that bill ever gets to the floor. It's done in the, in the caucus meetings, in the closed caucuses. All of that is decided before it ever gets to the public. Everything beyond that is just kabuki the theater, but that's what happens when republicans know that they've got a super majority.
[00:46:45] The governor's v veto threat does not carry any weight.
[00:46:52] Unless, and, and, and that's why when people say, well, governor Cox should, should veto more people, why would he continue to pick [00:47:00] that a fight? It would only weaken him p politically. I mean, he's, he's already not the strongest governor we've had in the past. But when I think about when, when Governor Herbert was in charge and lawmakers wanted to pass constitutional carry.
[00:47:19] Which was, you know, the ability to carry a weapon in public without a concealed permit. Concealed carry permit. They kept bringing that bill up and Herbert said, I'm gonna veto it. Do not pass this bill. I will ve veto it. And that stopped them. Because they knew that they did not have they, they either did not have enough votes to override a veto or they didn't wanna pick that fight.
[00:47:49] Now they've got enough votes to override the veto. On most anything they want to do because the Republic, the legislature has gotten more right wing, especially since after [00:48:00] COVID. And why is that? Because a lot of these lawmakers are voted in in special elections. It's not at the regular ballot box.
[00:48:09] They're voted in its special elections, which are only chosen by the, the delegates of one party or the other. Somebody retires, somebody leaves the legislature. And the election to pick the replacement is up to the delegates from the party that already holds the seat,
[00:48:28] and then that person is the incumbent all of a sudden, and that person joins. You know that person then runs as an incumbent and they've got the r next to their name. They, they don't wanna pick the fight, so they know that they're gonna get this thing through. Bottom line, if the Republican party can get the 70,000 signatures that they need to propose this law to repeal, to repeal, uh, proposition for the independent redistricting commission, if they can get [00:49:00] those 70,000 signatures and submit it to the legislature, it's going to pass, and it will probably pass with two thirds, meaning it won't be sub subject to a referendum, and it won't be subject to a veto.
[00:49:12] And then bing bang, boom, you're done.
[00:49:18] I'm sure that they, now, they haven't tried this with SB 54 because they know they don't have enough votes to get there. They're getting close, but they don't have enough votes to get there. But they would love to repeal SB 54 because that took the nominating process away from the delegates. And as we've seen signature gathering candidates, I think the first signature gather, the first big signature gathering, non signature gathering candidate to win a major office was Mike Kennedy this year in Congressional District three.
[00:49:53] He didn't, he didn't gather sig signatures. Um, Celeste Malloy did not gathers signatures when she [00:50:00] first ran to replace Chris Stewart. That was in a, in a special election. But Mike Kennedy, Mike Kennedy, Celeste Malloy, those were the first two in a contested election. But they would love to get rid of that signature path.
[00:50:14] 'cause it makes it easier for candidates who don't have broad appeal for candidates who don't have, you know, that, that, that broad appeal among the electorate to win. 'cause what are you gonna do? Vote for a Democrat if we didn't? I mean, just think about it. If we didn't have SB 54. Phil Lyman would probably be the governor today.
[00:50:39] By the way, I wrote about a new poll from Noble Predictive Insights. Uh, they gave me access to public opinion polling and um, you can go to my website, Utah Political Watch and.news and read that Phil Lyman is not popular with the public. Not at all.[00:51:00]
[00:51:00] All right. That's all the political chaos I've got for you in this episode. But before you go, let me hit you with some truth. I know you just spent the last hour listening to me explaining how your elected officials are basically playing three dimensional chess with the state's voting laws. And I know it's tempting to just throw your hands up and say, what's the point?
[00:51:20] But here's the thing. The only way that you can deal with this stuff is if people actually know what's happening. So here's what I need you to do. Head over to Utah Political Watch News. That's Utah Political Watch News and sign up for my free newsletter. Yeah, it's free because apparently I'm running a charity for civic education.
[00:51:45] You'll get my analysis delivered straight to your inbox. You can be the smartest person at your next dinner party or the next time you go out on a date or hanging out with some friends. When someone asks what's going on with redistricting or what's going on, when in [00:52:00] politics, you'll be able to speak up and let them know because you'll have this information that I'm imparting to you.
[00:52:07] Trust me, nothing makes you look smarter than actually knowing what you're talking about. And if you're feeling flush, maybe consider becoming a paid subscriber. It's five bucks a month. Gets you my Morning Memo newsletter, access to our discord where we collectively lose our minds over legislative shenanigans.
[00:52:26] And I'll send you some sweet stickers as well because nothing says I care about independent journalism than a laptop sticker. Until next time, I'm Brian Shot reminding you. That just because they're making it complicated doesn't mean you should stop paying attention. In fact, that's exactly when you should pay more attention.
[00:52:47] Talk to you soon.