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The latest in world horse racing news from the journalists at Idol Horse.
IDOL HORSE NEWS DESK PODCAST
Tuesday, September 22, 2026
Ka Ying Rising v Autumn Glow v Sheza Alibi: Showdown Talks
Host: Michael Cox | Guest: Adam Pengilly
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[00:00] MICHAEL COX
He's landed. Ka Ying Rising is back in Sydney to defend his Everest crown. But the biggest story might be what comes after. Sydney wants him, Melbourne wants him, and Australia's two best supermares, Autumn Glow and Sheza Alibi, could be waiting. A three-horse showdown of superstars? A dream or a done deal? It's Tuesday, September 22. This is the Idol Horse News Desk Podcast.
[00:28] MICHAEL COX
Today, Adam has the latest on Ka Ying Rising's arrival in Sydney. You can read both stories now at idolhorse.com. Let's get into it. Adam, your story today: Ka Ying Rising has settled into his Canterbury base after leaving Sha Tin on Sunday. His half-brother Ka Ying Glory is sharing quarantine with him. His first public appearance will be a barrier trial at Randwick on October 6, but today was his first public appearance stretching out. It was a little bit of an anticlimax if you wanted to see fireworks from him at trackwork today.
[00:58] ADAM PENGILLY
It was, Michael. Good news for his fans that he's arrived safe and well in Sydney and he's settled into his Canterbury Park quarantine base, but he wasn't out there to do much on the track this morning. He literally pranced, I think we put it in those terms. Two and a half laps of the Canterbury track. I think he spent about 25 minutes out there and then returned to his quarantine base. David Hayes was of the belief he's going to do a lot more light and slow work as he's built up to the Everest this year, as opposed to last year, and I suppose we saw that for the first time. But what I can say, casting my eye over him, is he looked healthy, he looked well, his coat looked great, he looked bright and alert, so he's obviously showing no ill effects from that travel from David Hayes' Sha Tin base all the way down to Sydney.
[01:39] MICHAEL COX
Before we get into the bigger, broader, more speculative story – the real discussion about the potential race between Ka Ying Rising, Sheza Alibi and Autumn Glow – you also spoke to David Hayes in a press conference today. He did an all-in for the Australian media. Two parts to this question: what about the interest from the Australian media this time around, and more on David Hayes and his outlook for this preparation in Australia?
[02:09] ADAM PENGILLY
Firstly, on the Australian media, it's significant so far, but it's very specialised, I suppose, to the horse racing media down here in Australia. We've still got our major football codes in the National Rugby League and the Australian Football League deep into their finals series, with grand finals this weekend and the following weekend. So I'd imagine there'll be a lot more mainstream media interest after those football finals are finished. But there were still several cameras and reporters out there this morning just to see Ka Ying Rising stretch his legs very, very briefly at Canterbury.
And then to your second point, about David Hayes and his preparation. I think David said this morning on his video conference call with Australian reporters that he has learnt a bit from last year's preparation. He definitely feels like he had the horse a little bit too fresh and underdone heading into the Everest last year. We saw that with the barrier trial, where he probably performed below expectations, and all the wild online speculation about his health and fitness, which was obviously unfounded but caused betting markets to shift abruptly. All types of chaos was happening there. I think he's had him a little bit more forward in his preparation this time in. He'll do a lot more slower work, as I mentioned previously, and I think they want to see a really good hit-out in that trial at Randwick, ten or eleven days out from the Everest. So it's scary to think that he won the race pretty comfortably last year and David, by his own admission, probably didn't quite get the preparation right. He seems like he's furnished and grown into a bigger and stronger horse this time in, and with a better preparation it's going to be amazing to see what he can do on the big day.
[03:38] MICHAEL COX
OK, let's get to the more juicy story. Well, the big story is he's back to defend his Everest crown, but a few stakeholders are pushing for – well, it's not a match race, because there are three horses – Sheza Alibi, Autumn Glow and Ka Ying Rising, potentially in the Australian autumn next March. It's on idolhorse.com, and I encourage everyone to go and read it.
Where's the major push coming from, do you believe, for this initiative?
[04:09] ADAM PENGILLY
As always, Michael, with Australian racing, sometimes it's a little bit complicated, and there is definitely a tug of war between Sydney and Melbourne to try and pitch this concept of a three-horse race with our two Australian superstar mares in Autumn Glow and Sheza Alibi, as well as the Hong Kong legend in Ka Ying Rising. First of all, with Sydney, they should have some sort of advantage, because this is the second time that Ka Ying Rising has been down to Sydney, and he seems like he really thrives in his Canterbury Park quarantine base. So that should give them a little bit of a leg up in the race to try and get him down here.
They're pitching a race on Golden Slipper Day. Now, whether that's part of the traditional program, which would be the George Ryder Stakes, run over 1500 metres at Rosehill, or it's a separate race or concept created of its own just to have the three horses involved, is yet to be determined. But that's their plan: to have it on Golden Slipper Day, which is Australia's largest Group 1 race day, with five majors on the one program. It works from a date perspective because it allows Ka Ying Rising to get back into quarantine and get back to Hong Kong for the Chairman's Sprint Prize. There's enough time in between for him to come down to Australia, do that, and then head back to Hong Kong, where he can headline the Chairman's Sprint Prize.
The 1500 metres is a fascinating distance because it will mean that Ka Ying Rising has to stretch out beyond anything he's raced over before. He's only ever been to 1400 metres. I think we know that 1500 metres is in the sweet spot for Autumn Glow. As for Sheza Alibi, I dare suggest she's probably more of a miler, and maybe a bit beyond, but Peter Moody, her co-trainer, might be convinced to head to that race if that's the play.
And then on the other side of the coin, Michael, you've got the Victorian officials down in Melbourne, who say they've been talking to David Hayes about this for months and months. They first broached this concept with him. They want this race to be held at Flemington a week later than the Golden Slipper, which would be on Australian Cup Day, potentially over 1400 metres, and it would be the first time we'd see Ka Ying Rising back in Melbourne, back at David Hayes' home track at Flemington.
So there's a lot of toing and froing going on in the background. There's still a lot of water to go under the bridge. Is the concept going to fly? Does David Hayes really want to do it? He said on the call this morning he's very intrigued by the prospect. What does the Jockey Club think about it? Are they going to be happy for their pin-up horse to head down to Australia again for a stint early next year? And then it comes down to money. How much money is going to be put in? Do they want connections to put in, you know, A$1 million each and have it as a bonus?
[06:30] ADAM PENGILLY
There are so many questions still to be answered, but it has absolutely been a talking point between the race clubs and the three sets of connections. And I think the initial response from all sets of connections so far has been really positive.
[06:44] MICHAEL COX
Let's talk about the pros and cons of it being a three-horse race versus an actual race on a card that's already covered by Hong Kong. If you can explain to the listeners the little bit of complication there with the Hong Kong Jockey Club, because really that's what looms over all of this. There's a great line in your story today that this race needs Ka Ying Rising more than he needs it. So what's in it for the Hong Kong Jockey Club, and maybe explain why a full field might be a better deal than a three-horse race?
[07:20] ADAM PENGILLY
Yeah, really good question. We know the Hong Kong Jockey Club has fostered a much closer relationship with Australian race clubs through their World Pool initiative, which they've been driving really hard. If they can have a race meeting simulcast – i.e. a Golden Slipper race meeting with a full field – that's obviously going to help them with their bet types, in terms of the Hong Kong punters who love the quinella place, which is familiar to Australian punters as duets. If you only have a three-horse race, you're virtually abandoning that bet option straight away. There are going to be no quinella place options. It's pretty much going to be straight-out win bets. Yes, Ka Ying Rising will still be popular with Hong Kong punters, but you are taking away that exotic bet, which is such a popular bet type for a lot of the local punters there in Hong Kong. So that's going to be an issue for the Hong Kong Jockey Club to work through and figure out if that's the path they want to go down.
And then from a pure race perspective – and I wrote this in the story – from a full-field point of view, I think Peter Moody has privately said that he would love to have a full field for Sheza Alibi, because out of the three, if you're going to draw a mock speed map of where the horses would settle, she'd be last. She'd be third. And she's the type of horse that wants to blend into the race with really good, genuine tempo. I think Peter Moody's worried about a three-horse contest where Ka Ying Rising goes straight to the front, Autumn Glow tries to get on his hammer, and Sheza Alibi is out the back and might struggle to make up the ground. So he's really embracing the fact it might be a race open to all comers, where there can be pressure and speed put into the race that allows his mare to come into the contest.
So there are so many different permutations to consider, so many negotiations that still have to play out. I can't sit here right now and tell you if it will happen. If it does happen, I think it'll be a phenomenal marketing tool, not only for Australian racing but for world racing in a lot of respects – to think outside the box and get Ka Ying Rising down here to Australia again for another contest. It will create enormous publicity. But as you referenced, I think the race needs Ka Ying Rising more than Ka Ying Rising needs the race.
[09:24] MICHAEL COX
And the Jockey Club really do have a lot of influence over where he goes. They essentially lease or own for the year the Everest slot, but the owner's connections feel a lot of loyalty towards the Hong Kong Jockey Club. Is it your feeling that it's not so much the connections – David Hayes and the owners of Ka Ying Rising – as convincing Winfried Engelbrecht-Bresges in a corporate suite somewhere at Randwick on Everest Day that'll really get this across the line?
[10:02] ADAM PENGILLY
I think your summation is 100 per cent correct. Because if the decision was solely down to someone like David Hayes, I reckon he'd be very open to it and would jump at the opportunity. He obviously hails from Australia. He wants to showcase probably the best horse he's ever trained to the world and take on new frontiers, and the reality is he's unbeatable, he's untouchable in Hong Kong. There's not going to be a horse, you'd think, that's going to emerge in the next 12 to 18 months who can give him a shake. Taking on challenges in different parts of the world must be really appealing to David Hayes. But ultimately I don't think the decision will just come down to David Hayes. It's going to rest with the owner as well as the Hong Kong Jockey Club, and they might be a little bit harder to convince to jump at this concept.
[10:46] MICHAEL COX
OK, a couple more questions. One without notice. 1500 metres at Rosehill, current form. Who are you on and why? Who wins and why?
[10:58] ADAM PENGILLY
I think it would be hard to go past Ka Ying Rising. I know he hasn't been tested over that trip before, and from a punter's point of view that's always a nagging doubt in your mind. But from what we've seen of him at 1400 metres in the past at Sha Tin, it doesn't look like 1500 metres will pose too much of a problem. And Rosehill can be a track which lends itself sometimes towards the leaders, as one of the firmer tracks we have down here in Australia. He might be hard to run down. I can imagine Autumn Glow would try and give him a race, but I think Zac would have a little bit too much up his sleeve, and he'd probably be too hard to beat on the day.
[11:31] MICHAEL COX
Is it any different at Flemington, 1400 metres?
[11:36] ADAM PENGILLY
Longer straight, so it'd probably give a horse like Sheza Alibi more time to balance up and really try and accelerate her way into the contest. But they can take the pressure out of races like that as they approach the turn, and even though it is a longer straight at Flemington, he might get a bit of a breather heading to the turn and she still won't have enough up her sleeve to win. That could be a more interesting contest, to be honest, at Flemington, but chances are you'd have to reduce the distance to seven furlongs, or 1400 metres, which makes it probably even harder for a horse like Sheza Alibi. So I think he would start the warm favourite over both trips, and if you're asking me right now, in his current form, I'm not quite sure you can beat him.
[12:16] MICHAEL COX
Well, let's wait and see. I'm a bit worried that this race will exist only in the form we've just talked about – it's a complete hypothetical in our minds – but we can only dream, and we'll see what happens. There are going to be some interesting times in the lead-up to the Everest. Just as a quick look: you've covered all of the Everests since its inception, and we talked about it last time you were here. There's never been a situation like this, where you've got such a long-standing odds-on favourite dominating betting and a little bit of a reluctance from trainers and connections to take a slot. We saw Mazu win last weekend, and Joe Pride's comment was that a seventh in the Everest doesn't really appeal to him. It's not really his go. So we're seeing a very unique situation.
But who are we looking at? We saw Joliestar return with a solid performance last weekend. Guest House goes around this weekend in the Golden Rose. Our readers can go to the Idol Horse website and check out our Idol Horse Everest Power Rankings, which we update weekly. Number three in our rankings currently, down from two – Joliestar jumped up a spot – is Guest House. He goes around over 1400 metres this weekend.
There's a reluctance, but I think it's more to do with the fact that Ka Ying Rising is an established force. He's gone there and done that, and he seems to have got better. What about the local contingent? Is it stronger than last year? I know he's probably shorter than he was last year, but that's based on his performances. What do you see from the local sprinters so far?
[14:00] ADAM PENGILLY
I don't think they're stronger than last year, to be perfectly honest. And I know you just touched on Mazu a moment ago. He's been a grand old campaigner – I don't want to take anything away from him – but if he's winning one of the key lead-up races in The Shorts, we as Australian sprinters are in trouble. That might sound like a really harsh statement, and he did have things go his way. The race was run at a pretty pedestrian tempo and he led them up. But if he's winning one of the main lead-up races, we are in serious trouble trying to challenge Ka Ying Rising.
Now, I know Joliestar's run was quite good. It was her first run back in Australia since travelling over to Royal Ascot. She had to face the breeze and held on well. Headwall hit the line relatively well. Same with Ninja, who carved out some pretty decent sectionals – he wasn't really wound up for that race, given he's already got a slot. But I just can't see them getting within cooee of Ka Ying Rising if he's at his absolute best. I think Tempted, who won first-up and was very impressive, and ran second to Ka Ying Rising last year, is probably still potentially the number one seed we've got down here in Australia. Guest House is going to force his way into the conversation, but as it stands right now, three and a half weeks out from the race, to me it has almost looked like a times-and-margins job. If he maintains his form and he has no hiccups or mishaps in his preparation before the Everest, I just cannot see any way they're going to beat him.
[15:17] MICHAEL COX
I have one way. And if I was a slot holder that didn't have any other options, I'd consider Mazu for this. I looked at the rain stats. October on average has six wet days per year. The Everest hasn't really had a wet one for a while. Ka Ying Rising has never faced a genuinely wet track, and Mazu has incredible heavy-track form. I'm just saying – do you take a horse like Angel Capital, who won on the weekend? I mean, they've got their own slot, Yulong. But if he runs at his absolute best, he's still running a nice fifth to Ka Ying Rising. I think if you really want to possibly win, or possibly finish closer, and you haven't got hold of one of those major contenders, maybe Mazu's your play.
Great analysis and insight there from Australia, and I'm looking forward to the next few weeks – not only of Australian racing, but watching everything Ka Ying Rising does from Canterbury and the way the Australian media cover him.
[16:33] ADAM PENGILLY
Yeah, it's going to be fascinating, Michael. Just on your wet track, I've got bad news for you. We've had a very dry winter and there's not much rain forecast at all for the next few weeks on the long-range forecast. So I think we'll be on a dry track on Everest Day. And David Hayes very cheekily suggested this morning that even though Ka Ying Rising has yet to be tested on a really heavy track under race conditions, he's a New Zealand-bred horse, and as a young horse, when his sons worked him at Lindsay Park, they reckon he went like an absolute rocket on wet tracks. So he's got no concerns whatsoever over the potential of a downpour on Everest Day – which I do not think we'll get, given the really dry spell we've been having in Sydney.
[17:11] MICHAEL COX
Well, that's bad news. Bad news for rivals. Even better on a wet track. Thanks for joining us, Adam.
[17:18] ADAM PENGILLY
Thanks, Michael.
[17:24] MICHAEL COX
And that's all for this episode of the Idol Horse News Desk Podcast. Thanks to Adam Pengilly for joining me. For more great coverage from the team at Idol Horse, including Shane Dye's weekly column Idol Thoughts, head to idolhorse.com. I'm Michael Cox. See you next time on the Idol Horse News Desk Podcast.